The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - TNF Reaction, McVay’s Coaching Mismatch, Sharp or Square
Episode Date: December 22, 2023Colin reacts to the Rams win over the Saints on Thursday Night Football! He highlights the coaching mismatch between Sean McVay vs. Dennis Allen and why McVay’s coaching has been the driving force b...ehind the Rams late season playoff push (3:00). Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the Week 16 NFL slate! (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) 21:00 - Steelers vs. Bengals 22:15 - Cowboys vs. Broncos 23:30 - Pats vs. Broncos 25:30 - Ravens vs. 49ers 27:30 - Bucs vs. Jags 30:30 - Bears vs. Cardinals 35:30 - Seahawks vs. Titans Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Transcript
Discussion (0)
This is an I-Heart podcast.
Guaranteed Human.
Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman
help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,
help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel
and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
On The Look Back at it podcast.
From 1979, that was a big moment for me.
84 was big to me.
I'm Sam J.
And I'm Alex English.
Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.
With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors.
Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.
84 was a wild year.
It was a wild year.
I don't think there's a more important year for black people.
Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
A win is a win.
A win is a win.
I don't care what you're saying.
Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.
You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.
Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show.
This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard,
but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok.
The volume. Listen, we've all had fender benders in our life. Sometimes it's even more serious. People between the ages of 25 and 34, in fact, have the highest amount of drivers involved in car crashes. Be careful. But even if you're
even if it's somebody else's mistake.
You can lean on Morgan and Morgan.
If you've ever been injured,
check out Morgan and Morgan.
It's the nation's largest injury law firm,
100 offices and over 800 lawyers,
with over $15 billion,
that's a billion dollars recovered
with over 300,000 clients.
Morgan and Morgan has a proven track record
of fighting for you to get full and fair compensation,
fighting for people for over 35 years.
Starting for an entire football franchise as a rookie quarterback is hard.
Submitting an injury claim with Morgan and Morgan is easy.
If you're ever injured, check out Morgan and Morgan.
Their fee is free unless they win.
For more information, go for the people.com slash Colin or dial pound law.
That's pound 529 from your cell phone.
That's for the people.com slash Colin or pound law 529 from yourself.
This is a paid advertisement.
All right.
Instant reaction on the Rams.
throttling, got a little close at the end due to a block punt and a secondary lapse.
And the Rams defense is a bunch of kids. You can beat them deep down the field and the Saints
did late in the game. But kind of a coaching mismatch. I thought once the Saints went for it at the end
of the half, instead of pinning the Rams deep, Rams had three timeouts left. They held,
marched down the field scored, 10-point Rams lead at half, felt like the ball game to me.
You know, there were two games this week on the docket that I really, really liked.
One of them, I talked about this on FS1, was the Rams tonight, minus four, three and a half against Derek Carr and the Saints.
McVeigh on a short week has won six of seven games.
Offensive coaches on a short week can be really, really good against defensive coaches.
They can do little tweaks with their quarterback in their offense, an offensive culture, I think,
has a bit of an advantage on a short week, especially if you're playing at home,
and McVey has six and one in these spots, now seven and one. And also, I don't think
Dennis Allen's a very good coach. The last two weeks, I've watched McVeigh work. Ron Rivera
of the commanders, commander's late game situational football was embarrassing. And I thought
Dennis Allen's halftime move right before half was a swing and a miss. So, you know,
I go on and on about this, but McVeigh is having an unbelievable year.
If you watch all the motions and all the shifting and all the manipulation on virtually every play,
Saints line up, they don't use motion.
I mean, most of the time they don't use motion.
They line up.
They don't put the defense in conflict.
It's much easier for a defense to just line up, see what you're doing, and go.
The Rams are using shifts and motions and these multiple.
sets where you've got three receivers, jumbo sets. It puts a lot of conflict and a lot of decision
making, throw in some motion. The Niners with Kyle Shanahan lead the league in motion, along with
Miami with an offensive coach, and the Rams with an offensive coach. It is checkers and chess.
And McVe, McDaniel, Andy Reed, Shanahan. It's a different-looking sport. I mean, it's a different
looking sport. So, and McVeigh's had his way, two and O against defensive coach Pete Carroll,
one and O against Ron Rivera, one and O against Dennis Allen, two and O against Arizona. He lost
earlier in the year when the Rams were kind of beat up to Mike Tomlin and the Steelers.
But since Thanksgiving, Matt Stafford, 14 touchdowns, one pick and a passerating of over 114.
And I think, you know, one of the things that jumps out to me is that McVeigh and Lesneed,
the GM really work hand in hand, and that's really, really important. I remember when Jim Harbaal
was with the Niners with Trent Balkey and they couldn't stand each other. And there's some
situations in the NFL where the GMs and the coaches aren't close. Mickey Loomis and Sean
Peyton, when they were in New Orleans, were best friends. Really matters. But, you know, less need
and McVeigh, McVeys got a great sense for offense. They find Pooka Nukua in the fifth round.
And they also go get, here's a prime example of an offense.
culture. So Dotson, the interior offensive linemen for the Rams, they pick him up in a trade
on the interior of the own line from the Steelers. Steelers weren't going to start Dotson, the guard.
He's now the fourth highest-righted guard in the NFL with Sean McVeigh. Steelers weren't going to
start him. So, and I go on and on about this, but McVeigh is the preparation, the in-game
management. And I think a lot of times that the media beats up on.
coaches for some clock stuff late in games. It's fast moving, it's fluid, nobody's perfect.
But I'll take the offensive guys over the defensive guys every time. And I also think one of
the advantages the Rams have, because they don't have good special teams. They're not a Super Bowl
team, in my opinion. They're a team that can go, they'll probably end up getting into the
playoffs and facing Detroit in Detroit. And I would probably take the Lions. They have more experience.
They have a dominant offensive line. Jared Goff is very good at home when he can on
spot and not rushed. And the Rams pass rush can be a little hit and miss. Their special teams
aren't good. Their secondaries young got torched over the top a couple of times tonight, first half
and second half. That's what Rams games are. But they've scored at least 27 points, I think in four
straight games. And I thought they should have beaten the Ravens. It was a go either way game.
But we'd seen other teams in the NFC go out to Baltimore, Detroit and Seattle and get smoked.
The Rams went out there and went toe to toe with Baltimore, a really good football team. So I just think
You're looking at a Rams team that has made over the last six weeks.
They are a completely different football team.
A lot of it is on offense.
Their special teams work good early or not good now.
Their secondary is okay.
It's okay now.
It's the offensive improvement.
Guys have gotten healthy.
Stafford's getting time to throw.
Kiron Williams, they're running back.
Small guy, but very powerful and shifty.
And McVeigh's offense is really a ball control offense.
You know, you think McVeigh, you know, you think these offensive.
coaches, you know, it's big over-the-top plays. It really isn't with McVeigh. He was at his best
when Gurley was in his prime and now Williams in his prime. That's really when he's at his best,
when he can rely on a 15 to 18 carry running back. And also Cooper Cup's a big receiver.
Puka Naku is a big receiver. He uses those highly effectively. So I really like what I saw
with the Rams tonight again. It was one of my favorite picks of the week. This and the Cowboys
over the Dolphins. They get a scheduling break now. The range.
Rams get 10 days to prepare for the New York Giants.
So that's an advantage.
The Giants, because they're on Thursday, then they go to New York.
10 days for offensive coaches is a big advantage.
The Giants have a game, big underdogs to the Philadelphia Eagles who are desperate for a win.
So a very physical indivision game for the Giants.
And then the Rams get four extra days to prep on a roll, very confident, didn't see a lot of injuries.
night. Stafford's getting good protection. But it was a work of art over the last month if you
watch the Rams. Demarcus Robinson, there's another guy. They just picked up. It took about six to eight
weeks. McVeigh gets him into the system. Now he's valuable. Puka Nakua rookie. He was great from the
very beginning. Cooper Cup healthy. This has become a very, very deep receiving court. Then it was one of
the primary concerns going into the season. And then you hit on Puka. And then all of the
of a sudden Robinson becomes a vital player. He will always a hard worker. He played with Baltimore,
twitchy, athletic. He was very good in the first half. So it is all rolling for the Rams now.
They're hot. It was a coaching mismatch. They get a scheduling break. And they feel like a
playoff team. The team's on the bubble, the Saints. Okay, now the Rams have an edge over them,
and the Seahawks, Rams have beaten them twice. So things are very, very good. One other L.A.
note, very, very interesting. Keep your eye on the Dodgers with a potential massive, another
massive signing tonight. Instant reaction. Let's talk to Chad Millman, Sharper Square. I got a story I got
to tell you. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced
games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way,
the podcast's Superhuman documented it all. Embedded in
the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.
I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
A win is a win.
A win is a win.
I don't care which I'm saying.
Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.
You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.
Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.
And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.
This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators,
and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.
One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment,
and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.
The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast.
It's a space for honest conversations,
stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.
So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right what you need to be.
Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.
Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?
Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people.
I know what you're thinking.
What the hell does George Bush got to?
Do a little Kim.
Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.
I'm Sam Jay.
And I'm Alex English.
Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.
Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s.
To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack.
I'm down to talk about crack on day, but yeah, yeah, literally.
But just so y'all know.
I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack.
So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.
We also have age.
on the table right now.
Thank you for finishing that sentence.
I don't think there's a more important year
for black people. Really? Yeah. For me,
it's one of the most important years for black people
in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart
Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Hello.
Hello. Chad Millman, Sharper Square. I'm kind of on a heater. I don't want to brag about it.
Oh, yeah? How much of a heater?
four straight winning weeks, four and one last week.
I had a little bit of an early Denver Bronco, Sean Peyton Russell Wilson, September
slump, but shit is rolling downhill now.
I'm like McVeigh and Stafford and Pooka Nakua.
Here's the thing.
No matter how successful you are and whatever field you're in, when you're winning bets,
it just like the whole day is brighter.
And I say that like, it just, it doesn't matter how much you're wagering on it.
You just feel good.
Last week, we do our podcast on Sunday nights at 7.30.
Normally, I am biting fingernails and sweating until 729 because I don't know how our day is going to end because of all the games that matter so much.
Last week, we were so locked in at 7 o'clock, I was doing dishes because like, it was like I was done.
It was over. And it just, it felt lovely.
It does. There's nothing better.
By the way, before we get into our picks, I'm not a spender.
I don't, I've never had a second car.
Most of my cars have been used.
I'm not a country club guy.
Second houses, however.
Those are investments.
But I'm not a spender.
But I and my wife, so I got to tell you a funny story.
So once a year, I take my wife to Beverly Hills.
for a couple nights before Christmas.
And we go look at the lights.
We have a lovely dinner.
And we just have fun.
It's really a neat weekend for us.
And so on Friday, I said, you know, I'm going to make an effort here.
We're going to go out tonight.
I'm going to, you know, go get a nice pair of, like, you know, slacks or something.
And so I go to this store and I don't know, you know, it's, you know, it's Beverly Hills.
You know, there's no, no target there, right?
So I know.
There's also, there's no price tags on any of the clothes.
No, no.
So I go buy a pair, a couple pair of jeans.
And they're nice jeans.
I mean, they're not Levi-501 nice, but they're nice, right?
So I go in buy jeans.
And then I buy a couple of shirts.
And, you know, we've done well.
I'm not somebody who sits at a grocery store and, you know, or a restaurant counts the check.
I've done well, whatever.
So I put it in my pocket, you know, the check.
Yeah.
Salesman's great.
But on my phone, like five minutes after I buy in my Amex card, it pops up.
So I'm walking across the street.
I spent $1,300 for a pair of jeans.
No.
Bro, I haven't thrown up since I was like seven.
I was convulsing at the intersection.
My wife started laughing.
She thought it was the funniest thing ever.
She's like, you're sick to your stomach.
I'm like, sick to my stomach.
I'm not, I can't do anything this weekend.
We're going to the Waffle House.
I'll fly to Atlanta.
I'm not eating.
Are they stitched in gold?
I haven't taken them off.
I sleep and getting every goddamn penny out of those things.
I told my wife, I'm wearing those six times a week for 10 years to get the money back.
They're going to be the most comfortable jeans you've ever had, even if they're terrible.
So my wife looks at the tag and my wife kind of knows this stuff.
And she goes, oh, jean.
Jesus blank.
She calls her daughter.
She goes, Colin just bought a pair of jeans.
Guess who he bought him from?
She names it.
And I can hear my stepdaughter howling laughing.
She's like, how much did it cost a thousand?
And it's like up.
So there ladies.
You know, my takeaway is I'll get use out of him.
I'm fine.
But do you know there are people that do that every day?
They go shop there every day.
Every day.
Yeah. I once did that before like, and I went to Barneys. I had to go to a wedding. And I knew it the wedding. Barneys. I knew at the wedding. I knew at the wedding that the girl who was best friends with my girlfriend in college was going to be there. And I wanted to look as good as I could. I was going to be with Stacy. I want to look as good as I could because I knew she was going to report back. So I go to I go to Barneys. I buy you.
this suit. It's like perfect off the rack. It was well north of $1,300. I had no business buying
this suit because I was not making $1,300. And I buy it. I'm feeling good. My wife is making
fun of me. She's like, you're an idiot. We get to the wedding. My ex-girlfriend's best friend
bailed on the wedding. Never showed up. I got this.
suit. I looked amazing. I never, I've decided since then, I cannot spend a lot of money on clothes.
Yeah. Well, I, I don't look good in clothes. I don't. So, you know, stuff.
You know what I wear, Colin? I wear my, my hoodie from the volume podcast network. That's
what I wear. That's all I need. That's so much. And I think, but, by the way, I might have gotten
this for free. You and I are have similarities. We've done well. We love gambling. We have
Both have our wives look like sisters.
They're both beautiful, beautiful, beautiful, beautiful women.
Tolerant women.
Yes.
And we are adverse to big spending, although I do look.
You probably, like I like nice vacation.
I'll spend, I tell my kids, education and experiences.
All about that.
You know what's not on that list?
Jeans.
No.
No.
Definitely not.
When my wife was in architecture school and I was working at ESP in the magazine and I was making not a lot of money.
And we were living in New York City and we had just gotten married.
And my wife who grew up on Staten Island, her mom was a teacher, her dad was an architect, very lovely lifestyle.
But it was not like an extravagant lifestyle, right?
I got the credit card.
After we got married and we're spending together now and she's an architecture school.
and she had spent like $400 on a pair of jeans.
I'm like, what is going on here?
And she's like, I just needed the jeans.
They just, they were things that I needed in that moment.
Sure.
I didn't want to argue with it because it was still early in our lives together.
Well, I used to be my, my, my, when I used to be a hoarder and kind of a financial hoarder, like, you know, my ex-wife would laugh.
She's like, you're going to be the richest dead guy ever.
And then I met Anne.
And Anne has certain needs.
And she needed me to spend.
Which is fine because she's beautiful and it makes me really happy.
But, yeah, things have changed.
All right, let's go.
So good week.
I'm going to give you the stuff and I almost know where you're going to go with these, I feel.
So I'm going to take the Steelers plus two at the Bengals.
Pittsburgh gets a second look at a back of the end.
up quarterback. They're a desperate team, veteran coach great as an underdog. They are a cornered
animal. Stealers plus two sharper square. Totally sharp. This was a two and a half. It got bumped down.
Look, you have a couple of advantages. One, no Jamar Chase. Two, buying or selling very high on the
Bengals, buying very low on the Steelers. Three, no DJ Reader. And that is a huge deal in the middle
the defensive line for the Bengals.
Not only is he great against the run,
he's phenomenal against the past.
So you're really going to be limiting
your pass rush capabilities against Mason Rudolph.
And don't think like, all right,
we're going from Kenny Pickett to Mitch Trubisky
to Mason Rudolph.
They're all the same.
They're all the same.
They're the same quarterback.
And then you just mentioned the most important thing.
Mike Tomlin.
Mike Tomlin as a dog,
most profitable coach the past 20 years.
Mike Tomlin as a dog at home,
Mike Tomlin as a dog in the division.
Mike Tomlin as a dog late in the year.
Mike Tomlin as a dog of a loss of more than seven.
Like every category, it starts at 60% and gets up to 90%.
No joke against the spread.
So yes, the wise guys, they're going to be on the steers.
I'm not getting the best number at Pickham.
I thought it was one of the bets of the year.
I'll take Dallas plus one and a half of the dolphins.
I have a theory.
Very good teams who are physically humiliated on big,
TV games come back the following week. It's not just losing. It's being humiliated, physically pushed
around. And Dallas is a physical team. Miami's not. Now, I do think they generate since week five
a very nice pass for us. That's a fan geo defense. But I think Dallas has something to prove.
I think they were embarrassed. I think they're a good football team. I'm going to take Dallas to win
by about a touchdown. Plus one and a half here, Sharper Square. Yeah, the wise guys are on the Cowboys.
This opened it to, it's been bet down.
There's places where it's won.
You mentioned Pickham as well.
It would not surprise me
and some of the rumblings I've heard in the market
from professional betters
if Dallas ended up as the favorite in this game.
So I will say it's very important
you get Dallas as an underdog
if you like them
because the trends start to work against you
if they become the favorite
in terms of covering.
So you want to get them at the plus number.
But for all the reasons you said,
like there are a lot of trends
that will back up the idea that when you are a team that has been blown out and then you are going on the road again as an underdog, you are the team that people should be backing.
So in agreement so far. Two for two, Kyle Cowher.
The number has been bumped up. All of our odds provided by Draft Kings. I'm talking to Chad Millman's CCO Action Network. Patriots plus seven at the Broncos. Weather could be crappy. Seven's a lot of points. Denver can nickel and dime you.
Bailey Zappy is okay.
He's not great, but my takeaway is this is a low-scoring, ugly, crappy weather game.
At six, I would probably stay away.
At seven, I would take New England.
That's a lot of points in lousy weather.
We've had huge rain through Southern California.
It's all moving into the mountains.
Denver, Colorado over the next two to three days.
Patriots plus seven sharper square.
Sharp-ish.
Like, there's a lot better games on the board.
not a huge edge with the Patriots of plus seven.
The challenge for this game is that the Broncos prior to last week had been living off
of turnover.
Yes.
That's how they were winning these games, right?
And that stuff always evens out.
It always evens out, except they're playing Bailey Zappy.
So what is the formula for winning for the Broncos?
They're playing bad quarterbacks and getting turnovers.
So what are they getting?
They're getting, I would argue.
Bailey Zappi is not a good quarterback in bad weather, in altitude, in a hostile situation.
This is tailor-made to be a turnover masterpiece for the Denver Broncos.
Look at what happened last week with the Chiefs, right?
The Patriots were in position to keep that game close.
They come out of the locker room.
Bailey, second throw.
He's rolling out, throws it directly to a Chief's defensive.
back. There's not even a Patriots receiver there. And that is going to happen two or three
times in a game. And a couple of those times, at least one of those times, the Broncos are going to
catch the ball. And that's going to be the way the game changes. I would not be comfortable
betting the Patriots in the spot. I would bet the under though. All right. One more dog, Ravens plus
five and a half at the Niners. They're a bit beat up. But Harbaugh is an underdog. NFC teams facing
for the first time, Lamar Jackson. Now, the Niners have excellent linebackers.
Twitchy Fred Warner.
They should be able to be more than competent against Lamar.
But if you've never faced him and you don't have anybody in practice to duplicate it, it can be an avalanche.
Five and a half is a silly number.
This is a very close physical game.
Hard to run on the Ravens.
I'm taking the points all day here.
I think it's a good game.
I like the Niners.
Five and a half seems almost disrespectful, sharper square.
Yeah.
So the wise guys are on the Ravens here.
I will say I'm conflicted.
I'm conflicted because, A, I've got a decent sized bet on Christian McCaffrey at 25 to 1 to win the MVP.
And let's face it, this is the MVP ball, right?
You got Brock Purdy at about minus 200.
You got Lamar Jackson at about 3 to 1.
And depending on the book, you've got Christian McCaffrey is the third shortest odds or Dak Prescott.
Or Dak Prescott is third shortest and McCaffrey is four shortest.
So in my heart of hearts, what I'm hoping for,
is Christian McCaffrey is dominant and that the Niners win the game.
And that the next two weeks, it's just a coronation for Christian McCaffrey.
And I win my Christian McCaffrey 25 to 1 MVP bet.
The problem is that everything you just said, Lamar Jackson against the NFC,
that's not a sort of quirky statistical.
It's like 16 and 1.
It's because there's nobody like Lamar Jackson that these NFC teams can prepare
when they are playing him.
Number two, there are like some concerns.
I haven't seen the injury reports from today.
But look, Amstead and Hargrave on the defensive line for the Niners.
When they were missing last week, the Cardinals gained nearly 400 yards, right?
And they kept it close.
And we also don't know about Lenore.
Is he going to be playing in the defensive backfield?
When he started to play, that defensive backfield was much better.
So I do think there are some concerns.
But I generally think the wise guys are looking at this and saying the public is so high in the Niners.
and there are reasons to be high on the Niners, right?
They are undefeated when Debo Samuel and Trent Williams are playing,
and they are beating teams by double digits.
They are a legit team.
I do believe the Niners will win the Super Bowl,
and I do believe we will look back on this team and think it is historically great
for the past generation with the combination of Kyle Shanahan,
who you think this, I think this, a lot of people who cover football think this.
He's a brilliant coach who has had bad injury luck and not exactly the perfect people
for what is an incredible system.
And I think he has that.
He's had luck on his side for health.
But I think this week, the Ravens are probably going to be the sharp side.
All right, Tampa Bay.
Let's go to some favorites.
Minus one and a half.
C.J. Bethard probably plays.
Jacksonville's in a funk.
Trevor Lawrence has banged up.
I don't think he's been healthy in three weeks.
We have to be honest about this.
Baker Mayfield with weapons and reasonable protections,
the best quarterback in his division.
he plays with a great deal of confidence and emotion.
I think he feels really good right now.
Todd Bowles is letting him kind of control the offense.
I know they're a favorite.
I tend to like dogs, but C.J. Bethard is an average, average backup.
I'm going to take the buck sharper square.
No real consensus on what side is the right side here.
The bucks were two and a half point underdogs when this game opened before we had the insight on Trevor Lawrence.
I will say what's interesting here, Baker Mayfield, no joke, he was elite against the Green Bay Packers.
Like, I think it was 21 of 28 north of 300 yards, four touchdowns, and all season long, the wise guys have been backing the Bucks.
And the Bucks have been one of those teams where for three quarters, they're amazing.
But there'll be four or five drives in the game where Mike Evans drops a ball.
or Baker throws a pick.
And like,
it just puts the game
a little bit
out of reach for them,
but they've generally
played really,
really well.
Yes.
So I can't fault you
for liking Baker in this spot.
It's a scary spot
because you're also backing Baker
after he was just as good
as he's ever been.
I know.
But with CJ Bethard,
yeah,
you're taking a short home favorite.
All right,
let's go to games I want you to talk me into.
So I have,
um,
uh,
two rules and
life. Number one, don't do math. No winners. Number two, always take a team favored by four,
because the odds makers are telling you, we'd rather do three. That's what we want to do. We can't.
This team's better. Rams tonight. They're just better than the Saints. It'll be a coaching mismatch.
Now it's down at three and a half, but at four, I thought it was a great bet. Bears minus four to four
and a half. I have been betting best quarterback in games, but I think Iber Fluse is
coaching for his job. I don't think Arizona's guy's coaching for his job. I think Justin Fields
is playing for his job. Oh, yeah. This is a big game, a dome team going to crappy weather.
It'll be, it won't be a blizzard. The weather is kind of unseasonably mild in the Midwest.
But I think the urgency and intensity here also, remember last year how teams after they played the
Niners, like all lost? We're not tracking it this year as much.
And the numbers aren't the same.
But when you play, when you play San Francisco, there are repercussions.
They're a really physical team.
I think Arizona played spirited football.
It's a really bad roster.
The Bears aren't a bad roster.
I want to take Chicago, Sharper Square.
The wise guys are on the Cardinals.
The game was at four and a half.
It got that down to four.
I'd actually take it one step further.
I don't think Yipflus is playing for his job.
I think he's auditioning for his next coordinator job.
I think Justin Fields is auditioning for the next team he's going to play on.
I think that as a Bears fan, we saw what we saw last week against the Browns in that second half,
where Justin Fields was like 7 of 19 for 60 yards, and that offense was not able to execute.
And at some point, that's on the quarterback and his inability to find the right receivers.
And so, and on the coach for coaching a defense that gave up the game to Joe Flacco and had a 10-point lead.
There's a stat that we had that we were talking about on the Favorites podcast.
The Bears, I think, this season or the last two seasons have had 10-point leads in the fourth quarter six times.
They're three-and-three.
Everybody else in the league, the past two seasons, something like 93 and 1.
Literally, it's like a 93% cut, you know, win rate.
So there's a lot of issues with that Bears team.
I think that what we got in the Cardinals is a team that is just always going to be undervalued.
And I don't think if you look at the market, there's going to be any professional better who says,
oh, yeah, I'm comfortable betting the Bears as more than a field goal favorite, which is why the line moved down.
Also, don't forget, Kyler Murray against the spread on the road, 15 and 5.
So you're talking about a guy who is very good at covering the spread.
And by the way, he also covered it last weekend.
That number was bouncing around.
So I like what I like what Colin Murray can do here.
All right.
Finally, dumpster dive, what's something that I would probably be appalled with,
but you think is pretty tasty?
I'll say this.
I thought about Eagles minus 12.
They're bound to win.
Yeah, I think, look, in any other scenario,
you're looking at Raiders plus 10 against the Chiefs.
You're looking at Giants plus 12 against the Eagles.
I'm not going to ask you to do those things.
I'm not going to do those things this week.
I think there's a lot of wonky-ish in those games.
And I think professional betters are sort of divided on really betting those numbers.
They're not really looking to do it.
Can I interest you in the Atlanta Falcons minus one?
By the way, McIntyre's on this.
He's like, that's the sharp side this week.
It is.
I mean, look, that number, I bet Atlanta plus two and a half.
And I know what I said.
I said, you got to be wary of those games that bounce from the one side as the underdog is now the favorite.
But the Colts are really kind of frauds.
And I don't, like, Shane Steichen, he should be getting votes for Coach of the Year.
What he is done with that team, what he is done with Gardner Minshu, who I think had won two games as a starter before this season.
he has put them in a position,
but also you've got to think about the teams they've beaten
during the streak they've been on
have not been very good.
And now if you want to talk about a coach
who is coaching for his job,
you're talking about Arthur Smith.
And he's putting Taylor Heineke back in there
also because the Colts defense is just trash.
Like they can't really stop the run.
They were good before Grover Stewart
went on his PED suspension.
They haven't been good since.
They're in the middle of transitioning.
That defense.
It's just not a very good defense.
So I think, and also the Falcons offensive line, which was really injured.
They had many players who were out or questionable heading into the game against the Panthers.
Back at home, on turf, Arthur Smith is going to have to be as creative as he could possibly can to keep this team in the hunt.
I like the Falcons here.
There's one more that I like.
Probably not worth your time.
It's a corner TV game.
Are you ready?
Tennessee Titans plus two and a half
Yeah well the way Seattle won people fall in love with their
They really have some really fun young athletes
But Vrabel at home
They're getting what three?
What is it now?
Two and a half
Did it move to three?
I haven't even noticed, did it?
It may have moved to three.
I'm checking right now.
If it did all the better
Then go get that three
Because that's that's the game
that the wise guys love.
And I know it sounds crazy.
They like Tennessee plus two and a half?
Yeah.
That's the, that's, they love it.
Love it.
Why?
Explain.
Love?
So on the team that just had the dramatic win in prime time by the team that just
had the devastating loss, Mike Vrable as an underdog, he's 26 and 28 straight up as an underdog, right?
Like, this is a guy who.
just wins when he is counted out and his team is not supposed to win, let alone the amount of
time that he covers as an underdog. Him and Tomlin are the two guys that wise guys love to cover.
They love to cover in these exact spots, like to bet on in these exact spots. So, yeah,
the wise guys are digging themselves some Tennessee Titans.
Chad Millman, happy holiday CCO Action Network All Odds provided by Draft King. Great talking you,
buddy great seeing you too brother happy holidays to you and the entire crew
another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy not quite on humor me with
robert smigel and friends me and hilarious guests from bob odenkirk to david letterman help make
you funnier this week my guest s nL's mikey day and head writer streeter sidel help an
a cappella band with their between songs banter where does your group perform we do some
retirement homes those people are starving for banter
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
On the Look Back at it podcast.
From 1979, that was a big moment for me.
84 was big to me.
I'm Sam Jay.
And I'm Alex English.
Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.
With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors.
Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.
84 was a wild year.
It was a wild year.
I don't think there's a more important year for black people.
Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying.
Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.
You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.
Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show.
This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrate.
So let's get to it.
Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
And for more behind the scenes,
follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok.
This is an IHeart podcast,
Guaranteed Human.
