The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - TNF Reaction, Russ Is Cooked, MLB Playoffs, Sharp Or Square

Episode Date: October 13, 2023

Colin reacts to Thursday Night Football and prescribes the one fix the Chiefs need to make prior to the trade deadline, explains why the Russell Wilson experiment in Denver will be over sooner rather than later, and why it’s not a problem that the top teams in baseball made an early exit from the postseason. Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, also joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square”, and gives the sharpest advice on how to bet the upcoming NFL slate.  Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Download game time today, last-minute tickets, lowest prices guaranteed. All right, little reaction on the Phillies wrapping up. Their series headed to the National League Championship series again. And the Broncos getting sort of humiliated 19 to 8 didn't feel anywhere close to that. Chad Millman Sharper Square in 10 minutes. So two things. One, Kansas City needs to go get a wide receiver at the trade deadline. Jerry Judy, Cortland Sutton. I think Denver at this point would trade in division. I think Denver's got to figure out Denver. I think they know they're not in the same stratosphere as Denver knows they're not in Kansas City's galaxy. So it used to be sort of an unwritten rule. You just didn't trade in division. try not to trade in conference. If you're Sean Payton, you're staring at Russell Wilson's contract. You've got to solve your stuff.

You can't worry about that. You can't worry. Anybody you trade them is not going to be around in two or three years, probably anyway. Kansas City moves off star receivers. They move off all receivers, including Tyreek Hill and others. Juju Smith-Schuster, won and done. So Kansas City is a really good football team, but I think the entire league looks at San Francisco

and looks at the way they thrash Pittsburgh's roster. and the Cowboys, you're going to really struggle to move the football if you're the Chiefs against that San Francisco defense if you eventually face them or Philadelphia's defense, for that matter. So Chiefs, go get a wide receiver at the deadline. We've been talking about that for a couple of weeks. When you have Andy Reed and Mahomes and you're scoring 19 and dominating time of possession, you need another pop on the perimeter. You know, as far as Denver, there's just no way Russell Wilson's going to last half of this contract.

new owner, Sean Payton. You can say what you want about Sean Payton, but he, next to Andy Reed, he's the most innovative offensive guy in the last 15 years in the NFL. I know half a dozen players that have played for him and loved him. Thought he was just a brilliant coach. And there's a reason, you know, many people wanted to interview him. He's the smartest football coach I've ever interviewed on a consistent basis

in terms of knowledge of offense. It's, I mean, just layered beyond layered. He won with Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Breeze, He won with Taysam Hill, a winning record, never been shut out. I mean, he knows what he's doing. I know people didn't like the call he made tonight at the end of the first half. It doesn't matter. There's no salary cap for coaches.

He's going nowhere. The GM might get replaced. Now, the good news for Denver, even with Russell Wilson's contract, you can turn things around really quickly in this league. This is not Major League Baseball, where you need like four drafts and certain teams have spending limitations. Like a third of Major League baseball, maybe half, just can't compete with the Houston's and the Dodgers and the Mets financially. It's not the NBA where you really have to have three high-end players to compete for a championship.

I mean, Kansas City has one elite defensive player. Bolton's a very good linebacker, but Chris Jones is your pro bowler. The bottom line, young and cheap on defense works. You know, you're going to spend your money on quarterback, left tackle, star receiver, or tight end. that's where the smart teams in this league like Kansas City spend their money on offense. The teams like Pittsburgh that are spending their money on defense, when's their last big playoff when in the last decade, right? So, you know, you get rid of some players, you get yourself 10 or 11 draft picks,

you hit on seven of them. I mean, the Rams had 14 guys make the team this year out of the draft. I think it was 14. I couldn't be wrong on that number. And they've been much better defensively than anybody thought. So you can turn it around. I mean, the Seahawks had back-to-back drafts where they nail their first four or five picks. That's 10 players.

And that's what Denver has to do. They've got to nail five or six players per draft over the next two years and have a lot of, you know, for lack of a better term, cheap labor. I mean, they've got to have inexpensive players, a lot of third, fourth, fifth, sixth round guys. And when you're not a great defensive team like the Rams coming into this season, you can do that. Fifth round guys have an impact. So, but this just isn't going to work. I mean, 95 yards passing, 17 yards passing, I think, or 32 yards passing in the first half for Russell Wilson,

it's just not going to work. And, you know, people say, well, it's not Russell's fault. Listen, when that game was 13-0, it felt over. It would not have felt over with Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hertz, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence. So Russell Wilson is the problem. if you trail 13 to nothing against a good defense and the game feels over at any point other than the last five minutes, the quarterback's the issue. It doesn't mean he's the worst player on the team.

It doesn't mean there are other issues, but his salary combined with his lack of juice, he's the issue, right? It's really unprecedented where you see a star quarterback with no major injury drop off a cliff. it's unprecedented. In the history of the NFL, I've never seen anything like it. I mean, I saw Peyton Manning at the end, five years older than Russ is now, and four neck surgeries go from really good to, you know, clearly not the same quarterback. Russ has never had a major injury. He's a workaholic.

It's just, you know, Pete Carroll saw a lot of things. He saw him age quickly, and now it's Sean Peyton's problem. So it's just not going to last for a long. This owner and this coach, I think they're going to try to accumulate a lot of picks. And somewhere in this draft, a very strong quarterback draft, try to get themselves the next guy. I'm dead serious. I just don't think they're going to be patient, especially in the AFC. Patience is what fired coaches say.

That's what they preach. You got to get stuff solved. Phillies National League Championship Series again. So a lot of people in baseball are discouraged or disappointed that the Rays and the Orioles and the Dodgers and the Braves who had dominating regular seasons all got flushed out of the playoffs rather quickly. But I talked about this on FS1 today. I don't think it's a terrible thing. I think the Phillies with Bryce Harper are a great watch. and I mean it's you know the rays the Orioles don't have national following so I don't think it's bad for the networks you know at all I think the reality is baseball is an everyday sport and when you give favorites they don't have to play in that wild card round they get five six days off I think that's problematic for those teams I don't think it's problematic for baseball because again I think the Phillies to me are as much fun or a better watch due to Bryce Harper than the Braves

But the bigger issue is the Yankees weren't very good this year and the Red Sox weren't very good this year. And the Mets were a complete disappointment. And so if the Yankees were a viable franchise, Houston's got a following, Phillies have a following, you'd be fine. But baseball did a lot of things right in the last couple of years. They speed the game up. Attendance and TV ratings are up about 10%. They got rid of the defensive shift. I thought that was very smart.

they'll never get rid of games and get down to like 120 games a year, which I think they should. I think they should start a month later, finish six weeks earlier, and wrap it up by October 1st or September 15th. By the time the NFL's cooking, getting into it second week, you're done. NFL is so popular now that baseball stands very little chance of pulling away audience. You know, if you get into late October, you have to have the Yankees or like the Cubs going for a World Series. You're just not going to be able to do it unless you have the biggest brands, and there's some crappy TV football games on, which, you know, it's Thursday night on Amazon. Those games are usually pretty dull. But I don't think it's necessarily a problem that wild card teams win.

I think it's the reality of baseball that it's an everyday sport. The Dodgers offense dried up. The Braves offense dried up. Okay. But if you're really honest about it, is that postseason baseball is a different experience entirely in a different sport than regular season baseball. So, you know, regular season baseball is a marathon. It's a triathlon. And the postseason is about getting a hit, getting a stop, getting an out. You'll bring a star pitcher out of the bullpen to get an out and get a win if you want to seal a series or you have a weaker pitcher going the next night against their superior pitcher. You need outs. You need to create momentum now. You need urgency. That's not the regular season. So, you know, I just think analytics are true. And they, you know, work in both the NBA and baseball, and they're smart. But postseason baseball is completely different. And the NBA playoffs are different. Sometimes you just need a bucket. You need a mid-range jumper.

So, you know, I use the analogy today that when you take your kids in a five or six-hour drive, same kid, same car, it's different than taking a nine-minute drive to school, right? It's a different sensibility and a different strategy with young kids in a car for six hours. And so, you know, same kids, same car, you know, same teams, same players, same manager, different strategy in the postseason. So the time off, I think, can be problematic for favored teams. And, you know, the Dodgers didn't, you know, they had a domestic issue with a pitcher, domestic violence issue with a pitcher, Kirshaw's age, and injuries. So they didn't really have a true ace. And Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts just didn't hit, which is, it's harder to hit in the postseason. It's

Superior pitching, more pressure. So golf and baseball are that way. Bigger the tournament, more pressure. Those putts get harder. So, listen, I can't wait to watch the Phillies. I think they're a great team. And I think Bryce Harper is the biggest star remaining in the sport. So I do not think it's terrible news for Major League Baseball.

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Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman. Human documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement

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or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away,

such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of Two. Listen to Stuff to Bo Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, Chad Millman had a great week. We had a great week, 5 and 0, off our 4-1 week, hit 9 of 10, Sharper Square, Chad, of course, the CCO of the Action Network. All of our odds are provided by Draft Kings as a hardworking Mason, one brick at a time, not going to get cocky, no reason to get

overconfident. I have an 0 and a 5 and a 5 and O, and we're only five weeks into the season. So take a deep breath. There are, there are some trends, though, I see. Are you ready to hear them? I can't wait. This is going to be good. So I tend to be like, warning. Buffett, a value seeker, right? I tend to take points. But I went back and look at why I was struggling in the first two weeks, and then I made a little switch. As the leagues become more quarterback-centric, I was taking off in the second-best quarterback in games, though I was getting value. So I said, listen, it's becoming more quarterback-centric. So I'm not going to do that. I'm going to seek value, but not be afraid to take some favorites. So I'm going to start with some favorites.

So I'm not getting the best line, but if you watch the Raven Steelers play, Baltimore was a much better team, two drop touchdown passes. Lamar Jackson is having a spectacular season. Dropped passes are like fumbles and fumble recoveries. They go in spurts. Baltimore's a really good team, getting healthier. I don't think Tennessee is. It's four and a half. I like it at four. It is what it is. I get the much more dynamic quarter. back. I also get a great coach. No coaching disadvantaged of Rable. Baltimore minus four and a half sharper square. Well, it's square, but, but it's not square like some of your other square picks. Yeah. This is, this is sort of square in the sense that wise guys are taking the Titans because of the number and nothing else. Your logic is sound. The company. The company, conversations I had today were exactly what you just said. The Ravens actually played really well last week. Zay Flowers dropped a pass that was wide open. Like there were there were three or four

spots where that game was over if the Ravens receivers catch a pass. Open, open, like wide open. Wide open. And so it was a very fluky, fluky game, right? Like in what universe right now should Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers be tied with the Baltimore Ravens for first place? And in the AFC North, right? So your logic is sound, and it's why a lot of wise guys have had a hard time with this game. It opened in five and a half, got that down to five, got to four and a half, got down to four. When it got to four, that was sort of the breaking point, and people started betting on the Ravens again. The challenge here that I think is screwing a lot of people up is the fact that it's a London game. And if it wasn't a London game,

you'd have Vrable as more than a field goal underdog, and there are a few coaches in the NFL who wise guys will automatically bet if they're underdogs. Vrable is one of them. Mike Tomlin is one of them. John Harbaugh is one of them. Right.

The flip side is that John Harbaugh is not very good as a favorite, and Lamar is actually terrible as a favorite. So I think the wise guys are trying to figure out What do I think of the London factor in all this? And it's scaring them a little bit, but they're taking the Titans. Another favorite.

You know I love the number four. It's one thing. Value is on the Colts. But to take Gardner Minshu, backup quarterbacks on the road are different than spunky backups at home in a dome. I don't buy the Jags. We're in London two weeks. They'll come home.

They'll be flat. They're playing very well. They like Baltimore. are undervalue due to a series of ridiculous drops in the first three weeks. They handled a Buffalo team that we loved three days earlier. I'm taking the Jags minus four sharper square. Wow, that one is very square. And there is no sort of equivocation from professional betters on this one.

This line opened significantly higher and has been bet down. There's a couple things going on here. Number one, Doug Peterson historically is very good against the spread in the second half of the year, but not in the first half of the year. Number two, specifically to what you just said about the Jags beating the bills who we loved, right? The Jaggs in that game lost a Pro Bowl caliber cornerback and a Pro Bowl caliber linebacker. And yet, at the end of the game, Josh Allen miraculously nearly led the bills back to a win against the Jags. Number one.

Number two, teams coming back from London without the buy, and this applies to both the bills this week against the Giants and the Jags, historically struggled during the game, and those games tend to be very, very close. They are either trailing or tied in the fourth quarter historically, teams that come back without a buy from London. So we're looking at a close game historically, and the Colts, their offensive line is just much, much better than it is.

has been the past couple years. Defensively, they have the leading tackler in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has come back to run behind that offensive line against the Jags defense that is just not very good, right? And so the wise guys here, they're not agreeing with you, Colin. One more favorite. I like the number at two and a half. It'll probably be three in most areas.

Bengals minus two and a half hosting Seattle. So, well, Seattle has extra time. I value extra time differently with offensive coaches. who bring more tricks, Andy Reed, McVeigh, Shanahan. Then I do defensive coaches who are largely motivators. They give guys rest. They want healthy defensive guys. I don't look at Pete Carroll, Tomlin, Belichick, extra rest.

Like I do Andy Reed or McVeigh. So I get a more rested Seattle team, but I get a significantly better quarterback who now is healthy. So the Bengals for three straight years have been a lousy September, early October team. Why? Earl had two surgeries and a calf injury. It's about this time Cincinnati hits. These games are also urgent for them. So they play with great urgency early in this division that's good.

Minus two and a half, I think it's a great number. Minus three, I'd still bet it. Three and a half, I move off at Sharper Square. At two and a half it's sharp. At three, it's not. So it's really, this is about the number. And, you know, to use a football metaphor, it's a 50-50 ball, right? It's really about how much do you believe in Joe Burrow?

And a lot of professional betters believe that what they saw with last week, what they saw last week with Joe Burrow is that he's better. And part of it is, hey, every year the bangle starts slow, he's injured, he takes time to get his timing. Jamar Chase, the past two weeks, has basically against the Rams and against the Cardinals, has basically had a season's worth of receptions and receiving yards. Like he's really found his rhythm with Joe Burrow again.

And what the wise guys liked about Joe Burrow last week, it's not the fact that they beat the Cardinals, who probably are a team that has been overperforming regardless. And kudos to their coaching staff for getting so much out of that talent. But it was the way Joe Burrow was able to move into the pocket. He was able to get around offenders, maintain his stance, step into throws, find his timing with Jamar Chase. That's what they like about it. I mean, I'm sure you and Kosell probably talked about this on the show this week. But, That's why they're betting on the Bengals at two and a half. And they do feel if they had looked a little bit better one week earlier, they might be getting the Bengals of minus four. So there's about a point and a half in value. But at three, they buy back the Seahawks or they pass. The market sometimes is a week late. I just think they're a week late on Cincinnati. I think they're by the end of this game.

They'll catch up to Cincinnati. So let's go to underdogs. So the Rams lost to the Eagles. but if you watch the game, it wasn't close. When you play Philadelphia and your defense is on the field for 40 minutes, that will have repercussions this week. I don't love Arizona, but at plus seven, six and a half, the stadium is not a home field advantage.

Numbers came out this week showing that home field is now down to one and a half points. Well, the Rams is less than that. So it's really, do I think a Rams team off a Philadelphia game in which they got beat up physically. I don't like teams the next week after they play the Niners or the Eagles in the NFC. The seven here, the six and a half is screaming Arizona. For the record, division rivalry game,

Arizona played San Francisco tougher than you'd expect. I'm going to take the point sharper square. Yeah, the Cardinals are a real conundrum for better this year, as have the Rams been a conundrum for betters this year, because the Cardinals, everyone expected them to be the worst team in the league. And certainly, like, there was a lot of mocking of Jonathan Gannon before the season began with his social interactions with his players, right?

That sort of became a meme on social media. And what you've seen with the Cardinals and what you've seen with the Colts, and a byproduct of this is what you've seen with the Eagles is how good Gannon has been in putting his players in a position to succeed, making the right play calls that give them confidence in high-risk situations that put them in a better position statistically to win. Shane Stuyken's done the same exact thing with the Colt, which is why professional betters are liking the Colts and not so worried about Gardner Minshu. You've also seen with the Eagles, the lack of those two guys has had an impact on how they play

on defense and how they play in offense, which is a testament to how good they were, right? The Rams, meanwhile, and I'm equivocating a little bit here, the Rams, meanwhile, have been great against the spread until this past week. So the wise guys have come in on the Rams because this number has gone up. But there's not a ton of confidence on this game. It's not a game where I've got my phone blowing up and people are saying, oh my God, I love the Cardinals here. Or, oh, my God, the Rams are exact right spot. It's sort of like you took the Rams at six and a half, it's at seven. We're going to kind of pass from here. I want to take Chicago. I do think, I will say one more thing. Like, Colin, I think people thought the Cardinals were at the top of the market after the Cowboys.

And they've done everything they can do with the talent they have. Josh Dobbs was not as good last week. They've been a little bit exposed. There's only so much coaching that you can do when your talent isn't up to par. So I'm going to take Chicago extra rest plus two and a half. I think it's a locker room game. Justin Jefferson's out. Trade rumors Kirk Cousins.

The white flag is up inside the locker room. Players are now playing just to be capable on film of not getting called out on Monday. Chicago feels like we found the magic potion. Chicago has an energized locker room. Justin Fields is playing to retain his position and Caleb Williams not get drafted. This is an energized team at home, extra rest, found their magic. I think you're going to get a Minnesota team that I think the messaging is waving the white flag. I take the bears.

I love it at three, two and a half. I still like it. Sharper Square. Yeah, that's sharp. Wise guys like the Bears here. It's wise been bet down. It was at three. It went down to two and a half. It's a fascinating game. In a lot of weeks, you probably want to play the Vikings because of the situation they just found themselves in and the situation the Bears found themselves in, which was winning in prime time. So bookmakers will automatically inflate their line, right? They would be a little bit higher than they normally would because they think the public is going to come in on a team that just dominated in prime time. What's interesting

here is a lot of what you just said about the Vikings, they might be the better team, but strategically, they have not been making the right calls on defense. This is a team that is blitzing at an extraordinary rate, one of the highest blitz rates in the NFL with the least amount of success, right? So they're getting to the quarterback on blitzes half the amount of time as other teams in the NFL, even though they're running so many more blitzes, I do think that plays a little bit to the Bears' advantage with the way they're starting to use

Justin Fields as a runner a little bit more. And also, DJ Moore and him have started to click. And if you look back, if you look back, one of the reasons people were so excited about the Bears this year is because Justin Fields who had been developing

got a number one receiver in DJ Moore. Number one receivers make young quarterbacks better. They're catch radius is better. They get 50-50 balls more often. They make young quarterbacks more accurate and more confident. You saw it when Stefan Diggs joined the Bills and Josh Allen. You saw it when A.J. Brown joined J. Lynn Hertz. We hadn't seen that with the Bears the first three weeks. We have seen it the past two weeks where Justin Fields and DJ Moore have been lights out. I think this is a really good spot. The Vikings secondary is not very good. And if they are

blitzing, then that gives Justin Fields an opportunity to get DJ more in advantageous situations. So generally, I would love the Cowboys, Big Brand, Capable Quarterback, Rebound Game. Vanderresh is now out. Trayvon Diggs out for the year. It's not the same defense. Also, they played the Niners, got buried. The one thing the Chargers are struggling with is situational short-yardage gains, fourth and one, third and two. Here comes their chest piece, Austin Echler, who, unless you watch the Chargers, you have no idea how valuable he is. Don't tell me running backs don't matter. They're not a good fourth and one, third, and two team without Austin Echler.

They will lean heavy on him. Keenan Allen, Eckler, Gerald Everett, significantly better quarterback, and a Chargers team where Kellan Moore, the Chargers have gone from a bad second half offense to a great one, a bad Red Zone team to a great one. The Cowboys reverse all those. It's the Kellynmore factor. It's a show-off game with an extra data prep. I'm going to take the points and the charger sharper square two and a half.

Totally sharp. The line has moved from two and a half down to two at a lot of places because of the wise guy money. Because specifically of what you just said, Kellyn Moore is the difference here, right? Like he has been making this a much better offense. Brendan Staley, like, as much as he wants to get in the way and make bad decisions for this team, Kevin Moore is trying to force him out of that habit. And Justin Herbert is lights out right now.

Like when he comes back, I have him in 25 to 1 to lead the league in passing yards this year. And I think he's going to go on a hot streak right now, starting with this game against the Cowboys who, look, we talked about this last week. I hated the Cowboys last week. I'm not a buyer on Dak Prescott. I'm not a buyer in Mike McCarthy. the Niners were probably my second biggest bet of the year. I got a little bit overextended on the Steelers last week, but it worked out okay for me.

But I just think Mike McCarthy, he had the benefit of Aaron Rogers and still didn't do everything he could have done with Aaron Rogers. The Cowboys are in bad shape. Wise guys like the Chargers. Right. There's always a game I ask you about because I am interested.

So I thought Niners minus four and a half. half was the play. Now it's seven. If it's a backup quarterback against who with little prep time against this defense, this defense may not be as good in the red zone as they were a year ago. It's hard to get in the red zone. You're giving me a backup if Deshaun doesn't play. I don't care what the number is. Again, I usually fade teams in dominating wins. This team is playing after losing to Philadelphia, they're playing to go 17 and no. They are physically mauling teams early.

Backups, trailing, are not going to move the ball in this defense. I didn't put it in there. I could be talked into it. Where are the wise guys? Well, look, at seven, the wise guys are in Cleveland. There's just new two ways about it.

And the game was at three. I know. And the wise guys last week started betting the Niners and betting the Niners and betting the Niners because there was the rumor about Deshaun Watson. Seven, seven and a half, eight, which it may get to because the public is just going to keep pounding the Niners until this kickoff. The wise guys are going to be on the Browns because while the Niners have a great defense, the Browns have an historically great defense. six red zone possessions in four games so far this year. They act like they can win games by themselves. Remember the 85 Bears?

Yeah. Like they would get on the field. It didn't matter what their offense was. They would get on the field and you would assume, all right, the bears will just score two touchdowns on defense. Like that's what the Browns can do. And you are getting the Niners right now. Look, Brock Purdy is 7 to 1 to be MVP because he threw four touchdown passes.

against the Dallas Cowboys. And the Dallas Cowboys, who did not have their best cornerback, playing for them anymore. So this guy, Brock Purdy, looks like a brilliant, brilliant quarterback, and I think he is. But is he going to look that good against a Brown's defense that is as good as they are from front to back? He's not playing the Cowboys secondary. He's playing a Jim Schwartz defense that is going to be incredibly aggressive. And, by the way, that has dominated in scenarios like this, against Kyle Shanahan.

So seven's a lot, Colin. I know it's ugly, but this could be an ugly game. Weather is supposed to be bad throughout the Midwest. I'm taking the seven. And finally, talk me into an ugly game. Talk me into something I haven't touched. I didn't just do that with the Browns. Oh, I know that was.

Give me another. Like, come on. Be with me on the Browns, Colin. Be with me. It's hard. Be my buddy. I can't. Do it.

What about Houston Saints? This is an interesting game. The public has been coming in on the Texans to the point where it's been bet down to the Saints or Minus 1. The last guys are going to bet the Saints in this game. They actually can't believe they're able to get the Saints at minus 1. There will be regression with CJ Stroud. You started to see a little bit of it last week. He was brilliant at the end of the game with that drive that put them ahead in the final two minutes.

But throughout the game, there were some moments where he made some really bad pass. that should have been intercepted by a Falcons defense that is not nearly as good as the Saints. And that is one thing the Saints have been doing really well this year. I'm not a Dennis Allen fan. I don't know why anyone would hire Dennis Allen to be a head coach, but he's a very good defensive coordinator. And he's got that defense playing at a really high level right now. So I like the Saints in that game.

Two games we haven't discussed that I think are pretty gross. And I'd like you to consider, remember, I'm set. 17 and 3 the past two weeks, Colin. All right? I want you to be with me on this train. Can I interest you in the New England Patriots plus three plus three and a half against the Las Vegas Raiders? Nope, not going to listen.

Go to the next one. Will not listen. I'm not listening. I refuse to listen. Why? Listen, it's like somebody that says, trust me, you'll love radio head. Let's go to the concert.

What about the, what about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Yes. Plus three and a half against the lines. Plus three and a half, Tampa's the side. I could be talked into that because that was one of the games I have here on my list that I didn't do. Tampa plus three and a half. Detroit comes off a big win.

The world loves Detroit. Carolina is really bad. And actually Tampa Bay at home is pretty good. Yeah. And Baker, look, there is some question right now about Mike Evans, because he is still a little bit injured. But a couple things have changed for Baker Mayfield. You might notice in watching these Bucks games,

and I've been fading the Bucks. And so I've had to pay attention to them because my rating on them is changing a little bit. He's not making the enormous amount of Baker mistakes that he's made in the past, right? He seems to have learned something in his travels from Cleveland to Carolina to L.A., certainly Shaw McVeigh put something in his year that made him realize he's making the same mistakes over and over when it comes to risk taking.

And I also think you naturally are better when you have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He's never had receivers like this. So I think there's a big opportunity here to buy a little bit lower on the bucks and sell way, way, way high on the lines. Like look, Jared Goff, most profitable quarterback against the spread the past five years in the NFL. but he's a much different quarterback when he's in a dome than he is on the road. And he's under 500 against a spread on the road. People love the lines right now. They're dominating, but this is a tough spot. Right.

Yeah, I'm not going to listen to the Patriots. How about the Jets? Plus seven against the Eagles. Yeah, I think Philadelphia has found a bit of an identity. They're a little banged up. I think my concern about Philadelphia, I looked at that. I think my concern about Philadelphia is on the road again, don't really have their identity. And I don't think Jalen's quite Jalen.

I do think Shane Steichen. I think he's trying to, he's riding himself, but he's made some mistakes. He's made about two bad throws. And I think against the Rams, you can get away with it. I don't think you can get away with it with the Jets. And the number is seven, isn't it, six and a half or seven? Yeah, big. I, that I can be talked into.

That's a pretty interesting. I looked at that game. I wonder if I would be buying top of the Zach Wilson market, or is this the new Zach Wilson? But I will say this. Jalen's great. He's a top seven guy in the league. But it doesn't quite look the same as last year. No.

And so my feeling on the Eagles, and I might have said this to you last week, is that they've got a, I actually think they'll represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. And I think their defense, when healthy, is as competitive as the Niners. I love their offense. I think that they remind me of the Patriots circa 2010 to 15, where they might not get it all right early in the year, but their coaching is so good. Their play calling is so good. and the players are so confident that they can fix it while they're playing.

They can change the wheels on the truck in real time. But that doesn't mean they're going to cover every week. And we've seen that. We've seen that against Washington. We've seen that in certain scenarios. So this to me feels like a spot on the road against a really good defense, against a team that clearly has a lot of spirit and a lot of pride. I don't know if it's a Zach Wilson thing.

Like he is playing better clearly and against the defense. a backfield for the Eagles that are struggling and injured. But I like seven. I feel like we should do sort of an alternative blazing five. Like the blazing five that you're going to end up doing that is full of your favorites and you know, you've convinced yourself that you can't bet ugly teams. And then the blazing five that is the teams that make you absolutely afraid. Like, betting the Patriots, betting the Browns, betting the Jets. No, Jets isn't, I'm not afraid to bet the Jets. If the number goes, if I could get seven, I think it's a really solid bet. I think it, listen, the bet I like that the wise guys don't.

And I'll just say, I like the Ravens who were so embarrassed about how they had played last time they were in London. They spent the off season preparing for this. I think I'm getting value at minus four. I don't think Tennessee is very good. I really don't. And I don't even think, I think you're betting on Vrable, but I think that's muted somewhat by Harbaugh. And so, by the way, Tennessee leaving late, every Thursday in London game, everyone, one team isn't ready to go. Buffalo, commanders, every, you don't ever get two teams in London.

You're like, that's the best they've played in years. You don't get Thursday games. Bears ready. Washington came out of overtime against arrival. if you're telling me one team's going to click, I'm going to be the team that got there 36 hours earlier, undervalued by the market, and I get a superstar quarterback against the quarterback.

The other team keeps drafting quarterbacks to replace him, and he's just better than those bad guys. I like that. Yeah, but right now, you're not convincing me of a game that I'm overly confident in. Like, I agree with everything you're saying. It's like, I'm playing the number. That's all I'm doing is playing the number, right? It could be right.

It could be wrong. And for the wise guys, this is one of those 50-50 balls, right? That's why the number went from four and a half to four and has gone back up to four and a half. Like, it's because there's sentiment on both sides. What I'm telling you is go big. Yeah. Go Browns. Go Patriots.

Go Panthers. I can't. Go Giants. Go, go Jets. Have some fun with it. There's no such thing as fun. My life is masonry. I've never had any fun in my life except hanging out with my wife.

Oh, my God. My wife is a struggle. That is the biggest lie I've ever heard anyone say about themselves. Yeah, I have some fun. I got to be honest. I do have a lot of fun. The number of times I've gotten calls from you, I don't even know from where.

Hey, Millman, check out this view. It's amazing. Whatever. All right, Chad Milman, Action Network, CCO, all odds provided by Draft Kings. Good luck, my friend. See you, brother.

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