The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Week 11 ‘Sharp’ or ‘Square’ with Chad Millman

Episode Date: November 18, 2022

Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 11 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Commanders/Texans (3:00), Chiefs/Chargers (5:00), Eagles/Colts (7:00), Cowboys/Vikings (9:00), Jets/Patriots (12:00), Raiders/Broncos (14:00), Bears/Falcons(16:00), Bengals/Steelers (17:00). Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The volume. It's the Colin Coward podcast presented by Fandul. Football seasons in full gear, no better place to get in on the action than Fandul. FanDul app is safe. You get paid fast. A lot of ways to play. The spread, the money line, team totals, players, props.

A lot of stuff. Over unders. Jump into the action. Same game parlayers are my favorite. Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fandul app today. All right. I didn't have the best week, but I felt most of my games were go-either-way games. I mean, I lost that Bears game, but I still thought I was on the right side. Chad Millman, C-C-O Action Network, all odds provided by Fandall. So it's a bounce-back week. Didn't love all the lines.

There's a lot of plus three or minus three, and I think the numbers are right. So as we venture into Sharper Square on a Friday morning, I'll start with one of those games. Texans getting three or three and a half. The Texans have been in most of their games. Washington short week comes off a highly emotional win where they played nearly perfect football. We tend to get a little hyperbolic if a team looks great on a standalone game. Texans at home getting a field goal or more. I'd take that side.

Go look at their results. They've been in game, sharper square. sharp 100% sharp this was immediately bet I bet it at plus three unfortunately I bet it too early it went up to three and a half the wise guys have now come back

and taking it down back to three there might be a couple three and a halves out there if you can find a three and a half take it three is still the right side for me it's a huge pro's Joe's game about 80% of the money coming in on the Texans and about 58% of the money coming in on the commanders.

The Texans, you mentioned it, they outplayed the Giants. Look, they average six yards per play against the Giants. They completely outplayed them. There's massive Washington inflation after beating Philly on Monday night. This was the first game that I bet. Tuesday morning, looked at the lines, saw the Texans at plus three. I was worried it was going to go to two and a half. I was worried the wise guys would nail it.

Through week 10, the Texans have been the unluckiest NFL team per our luck rankings, which quantifies a lot of different metrics that basically say this team will regress back to the mean, they have been incredibly unlucky against the Giants. Two red zone turnovers, two red zone field goals, did them in. You're getting a couple of points of value based on the perception right now. Take the Texans. Another game that jumped out to me later today, Chargers plus five and a half at home, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams should both play.

offensive lines in better shape. You know, the Chiefs have not necessarily been a great cover team. They win. They don't necessarily cover. It feels like a make or break game for the Chargers. This one feels obvious to me, five and a half chargers, sharper square. Yeah, so this one opened at seven. And this one, again, you know, we do that segment,

Sharp calls on the favorites, me and my BFF, Simon Hunter, where the wise guys will call us in the middle of the week after hearing the first episode of the week, we get to the second episode. They're telling us what they liked and what they didn't like about what we said. We love the Chargers in our first episode on Tuesday, a plus seven.

By late Thursday, it was at five and a half. I still like the Chargers at five and a half. I like them a little bit less just because you're not getting the best of the number and you want to get the best of the number in these scenarios. The key here is that Patrick Mahomes historically does really well as a favorite of less than three and a half is under 500 as a favorite of more than three and a half. It's hard to go on the road.

The chiefs have not been winning by big numbers. And even against the Jags, I liked the Jags last week plus nine and a half. They missed two field goals, right? So even then, the score is not indicative of what happened on the field. Yeah. The Chargers are going to be the right side here. I'm going to take the Eagles minus six and a half at the Colts. So I think we're overplaying the emotional elevation of the Colts for Jeff Saturday. Dan Campbell briefly was Mr. Magic in Miami. Philadelphia is a good team that played like crap and could not get the ball back in the first half.

They're a much better team. We still have an MVP candidate quarterback, better O-line and D-line play. You see the Eagles picked up some interior D-Linmen this week. I think the Colts were a bad team. I know they're a favorite, but I like the Eagles to blow them out, Sharper Square. There's a reason why the Eagles had to pick up defensive line help. There's a reason why the commanders controlled the line of scrimmage for something like 40 minutes.

It's because the Eagles defensive line is missing Jordan Davis. And Fletcher Cox had to play 70 plays. And he was admitting in the middle of the week, he was feeling it a little bit of bit. Incomes in Dama Khan Sioux, who really, who hasn't played this year. So now you're, you're signing a guy off the street who's kind of got some, some tread on him and is past his prime, way past his prime, and plugging him in, hoping that you're going to play better against an offensive line that can be equal to what Washington just did with a significantly better running back who's finally healthy. So I wasn't playing the emotional resonance of Jeff Saturday,

coming in, I'm playing the fact the Colts just have a better offensive line and have a running game that I think can beat up on the Eagles defensively. So you got to take the Colts here. And this line's been coming down. Like it was at 8 and a half. It was at 8. It was 7 and 1 half. It was 7.

I took it at 7. I waited a little bit too long. It's getting a little bit lower. Like, you're alone on this one, Colin. Otherwise guys like the Colts. I like the Cowboys. minus one and a half at the Vikings, an exhausting, wildly emotional game against Buffalo. Dallas had opportunity after opportunity to beat Green Bay.

They were controlling them at Lambo in the third quarter. Also, the left tackle for the Vikings, who's been fantastic, could be hurt. Micah Parsons off his worst game of the year. I take Dallas straight up to beat Viking Sharper Square. Totally sharp. The wise guys are in love, in love with this. game. And this is like one of the biggest pros Joe's disparities that we have on the board this week. When I'm talking about pros Joe's, I talk about tickets are the Joe's. The number of

betting tickets, $10, $15, $20 coming in on one side. And the money, those are the pros, coming in on the other side, huge disparity in this game. Look, everyone says it. The Vikings have been one of the luckiest teams this year. They're winning in less than one score. goal or games. We saw it again this past week. This past week, their collective win probability in the game makes them the second luckiest winners in the NFL since 2014. Number one, by the way, Miami Dolphins against the Baltimore Ravens earlier this year. This is a mediocre team in every single respect. This is a mediocre team in the Minnesota Vikings. Look at the DVOA. Cowboys are fourth. Minnesota is 17th. Estimated.

wins. So if you take away sort of the one score elements and you just look at the overall stats, Dallas should have 7.7 wins, Minnesota should have 4.5 wins. Yars per play on offense, Minnesota's 16th, yards per play allowed. They're 28th. This is Dallas, every single wise guy will tell you Dallas should be favored by three in this game. Okay. Another game I liked, the Jets are able to get a rush with four people. If you look at Mack Jones's numbers, they are regressing badly. He is now no better than Zach Wilson on six or seven vital stats. If the numbers three and a half and what I think will be a very low scoring game between two very good defensive coaches, that's just too much.

The weather could be choppy. New England just doesn't score a lot and the jets don't allow you to score a lot. They discombobulated the Packers at Lambo. If I get three and a half, I would take the Jets. That just seems, again, low scoring, Jets front, real pressure on Mack Jones, who is acknowledged this year has been a struggle for him with no offensive coordinator. Jets plus three and a half, sharper square. The flip side is that, what is it, three weeks ago, the Jets and the Patriots played in New York, New Jersey.

the Patriots were three-point favorites in that game, they ended up winning by five. So three weeks later, after a big Jets win against the Bills, the Patriots now go home and they are three-point favorites again. So you're telling me in those three weeks with one win that is dynamic against a Jets team, a Bills team that might not be as good as we thought it was, the Patriots are all of a sudden still just three-point favorites. So that three-point edge that you get by playing at home is, washed away in three weeks, that is a massive, massive adjustment. The Patriots are the wise guy side here. The Patriots have been betting the wise guys have been betting the Patriots. They bet them at three. It's wide going up to three and a half. I would still take it at three and a

half. I might even take it at four. I think the Patriots, Mack Jones might be complaining, but their running game is doing really well. And I am not actually as big a hater on Matt Patricia running that offense as other people have been. I think he's kind of figured something out. So of the wise guys. They like the Patriots. All right. I'm going to take the Raiders plus two and a half at Denver.

Off a buy. Denver is awful. Could not get into the Red Zone. The Raiders are in six one possession losses. They're in games. They have a legitimate quarterback. They have a functional coach. I can't, Denver can't be a favorite over anybody.

Can you imagine coming in off a buy week and you can't get into the Red Zone. Again, if the Titan team missing five starters, the Raiders are the better team. This goes to my Arizona-Seattle situation where twice Seattle got points. Seattle's a better team. The Raiders are the better team than Denver. Of course I'm taking point, sharper square. So, yeah, the Raiders are the better team. The wise guys will be betting the Raiders. It's a really interesting game because when these two teams met earlier in the season, you had almost an entirely different lineup for the Denver Broncos. You won't have Randy Gregory in this game.

You had him in that game. You won't have Bradley Chubb in this game. You had them in that game. You're not going to have KJ. Hamler. You had them in that game. Jerry Judy potentially injured. You have a lot of injuries on the offensive line. And as we know, this offense is terrible, right?

The last time a team was last in scoring offense and first in scoring defense, 1946. I think everyone saw the stat this week. If the Broncos had scored more than 17 points in any of their games this year, they'd be 8 and 1. So I think you're getting the right side in the Raiders. All right, we always finish with two things.

I ask you about a game that I'm not going to bet. You can potentially talk me into it. Bears plus three at the Falcons Chicago would have been my side. I thought they outplayed Detroit, but Atlanta can take the ball away from you with the run game and Justin Fields, who's a little heavy legged now because they're depending on them a lot. How would you play it? So I like the bears in this game, but I'm waiting to see if it gets back to three and a half. It was at three and a half. I think if it can get there, I'd probably play the bears. At a field goal, it's a pass for me. But honestly, the bears, the last few weeks, have been offensive juggernauts, right? And

this is the one thing that Justin Fields has shown other than his legs is when he's not being pressured, he's a pretty good passer. And right now the Falcons can't get any pressure on the quarterback. The league's worst pressure rate and their secondary is still shorthanded. Meanwhile, their offense has been fading a little bit. Mark's Marriota is sort of becoming who we thought he would be. And so are the Falcons going to be able to score enough to keep up with the Bears? They're both incredibly bad defenses. The Bears' offense, to me, is a little more potent. And I think Justin Fields is a better quarterback.

So I'm just hoping that the number, as we get closer to the game, gets back up to three and a half. Finally in Sharper Square, Chad Millman, give me a game I haven't brought up that you think is a gem. Well, look, you brought up the chargers, which I was surprised and pleasantly surprised that you brought them up. you threw the Broncos at me, which we hadn't even talked about and sort of when I start to get word of what you might be interested in.

So the other game that is interesting to me, let me see if I can convince you with this. Because last week, we talked about the Niners and the Chargers. And I told you I was making an executive decision. The wise guys were really all over the Niners. I loved the Chargers in the spot, right? I'm going to do the same thing this week. the Steelers and the Bengals.

The wise guys love the Steelers. They love that TJ Watt is back. They love Mike Tomlin as a home dog. They are impressed by their performance last week. So are we. We both love the Steelers last week. This line has moved from five and a half down to five to four and a half to four to three and a half. I'm taking the bangles.

I think I've got the better quarterback. I've got the better team. I've got a team that won last week coming off the by with a new quarterback. They're a little bit lower emotionally. I feel like this is a really good spot for the Bengals to take into the lead forward in their quest to get back to the playoffs. Also, the Steelers off a by beat the Saints in a short week. So Kenny Pickett had extra days to prepare. Now Kenny is the quarterback with fewer days to prepare against the significantly better quarterback.

So Burrow does. At three, I would take them. These divisional rivalry games are close. But Pickett now goes from having that advantage of extra prep to facing a significantly better quarterback that has the advantage over him. It does feel like the Bengals are the side. It does feel like the Bengals are the side. I will tell you, I don't know that it's going to get to three.

I hope it does. I took it at three and a half because I'm starting to see numbers out there where it could go back to four, before it goes back down to three. So I took it at three and a half. I might have rushed. I got a little antsy. I don't know.

Sometimes I get impatient. But it'll be interesting. Look, when we do the podcast, when we do the favorites, when Simon and I do the favorites, we will have one bet every week that we call our big balls bet of the week. It's the bet that nobody else is making that feels kind of ugly. And we were debating this week between the chargers and the bangles. And we ultimately went with the bangles. All right, Millman, good stuff.

I'm trying to bounce back this week. As always, all odds provided by Fandul. Thanks, buddy. Good to see you, man. The volume. Make sure to check out the Dremon Green Show. I brought Dremon Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports,

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This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and headwriter Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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