The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Week 3 NFL Picks and Betting Breakdown with Chad Millman

Episode Date: September 24, 2021

In Fake Questions, Real Answers, Colin reveals where Aaron Rodgers is really from, names the most underrated college football program, and explains why the USC job search deserves media coverage (3:00). Then, Colin makes his NFL Week 3 picks and Action Network CCO Chad Millman tells him if he's sharp or square on Bills/WFT (12:00), Chargers/Chiefs (15:00), Saints/Patriots (23:00), Bengals/Steelers (26:00), Dolphins/Raiders (29:00), Eagles/Cowboys (33:00). They also look at Bears/Browns (37:00), Seahawks/Vikings (39:00), and Cardinals/Jaguars (43:00). Chad also announces Colin's Week 3 Survivor Pool pick (47:00).Make sure you follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. Eighty-four's big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors.

Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Are you ready for the big day? Not your big day, her big day. Valentine's Day. If not, you better rush to FTT.com to order early and save on a winning combination of flowers and gifts for Monday, February 14th. Bold blooms and gifts are the perfect way to celebrate the one who caught your heart soon. So go to FDD.com and save 15% through February 14th with Code Crush 15 on fresh. Flores delivered flowers when you order early.

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I give him the eight lines in the NFL that interest me on Sunday. I'll pick five that will eventually make it on the herd's blazing five. But first, fake questions, real answers. There's things I want to talk about. I don't want to wait for you to ask me the question. So here we go. Dear Colin, when discussing Aaron Rogers, you called him a SoCal guy. People were oh so quick to remind you he's from Northern California.

But doesn't the fact that he owns a $28 million mansion in Malibu? make him a SoCal guy. A great question, and that's right. When you're rich, where you buy a home matters. Because you have limitless options if you're Aaron Rogers.

You could build and buy anywhere. He sees himself as more artist than he does tech savant. He didn't choose to live in Northern California. He chose with financial options

at his disposal to live in Malibu. Malibu is not only in Southern California, it's where many of the stars live. That's how he views himself. He dates Hollywood stars. He is a star. He loves his music. You even see that imprint in his commercials.

He may be from no cow. He is a SoCal guy. Dear Colin, your interview with Tony Dungey this week, which was terrific by the time. the way. Tony said two keys for successful NFL quarterback. Poise and accuracy. If you could add another, what would it be? Something they call twitchiness. Do you have a quickness of mind, quickness of body? You have to be able to figure things out in the NFL as a quarterback very quickly. Some are quick mentally. Peyton Manning. Some can be quick.

physically. They can run. If you're Russell Wilson, you're both. You're quick mentally and physically. You can't have a slow release in the NFL. They talk about this with Brady all the time. Brady is very quick mentally, but it would be useless if he didn't have a quick release. So Brady's release from the minute he starts the motion to the time the balls let go is less than four-tenths of a second. You have to be quick in this league. It's why Tim Tebow and his fanboy's never got it. He had a really slow release, almost a second. You can't do that. The windows are not vast. They're very small and they close quickly. So twitchiness, the ability to either think quickly cognitively or have an innate instinct physically. And in the case of Russell Wilson, I think he has

both. Dear Colin, you were a supporter of the NFL's taunting penalties, but now you seem to think they're getting a little out of hand. Are you changing your mind? Are you changing your mind? or sticking with your original and usually dead on sharp instincts. Well, it's fluid. Everybody's always looking for a right and wrong. Over the course of time, we had a 55 mile an hour speed limit, and then we have a 65 mile an hour speed limit. People are seeking the right answer.

I'm always concerned about the intent. The intent is to avoid a brawl or mayhem, as rare as they may be. There's a lot of things we do on airplanes. You ever notice that? Put your seat upright. Really. I'm going to survive the crash if the seat is upright. What is the intent of that?

Insurance. Your inability to sue an airline, perhaps, because you're in somebody's lap behind you. What's the intent of the taunting rule? To avoid a fight and or a brawl, as rare as that may be. Putting your seat up during a landing, we're not sure it's ever saved a life in a crash landing, but I understand the intent of it. Dear Colin, what is currently the most underrated program in all of college football? You know, that's interesting because sometimes something gets a label as overrated,

so people stop talking about it. And then after a while, it becomes underrated, the same thing, maybe a product, maybe a city. I mean, Seattle had a point where it was the next L.A. I mean, there was the 80s, Microsoft, the population boom. Like Seattle was chronically underrated. Now it's been underrated for so long. It's still wet 300 days a year.

It's a tad overrated. It's damp and gray all the time. And I'm from there. I mean, outside of Alabama, I think Notre Dame is right now the most underrated. program in college football because I think there's a vast number of people in the Midwest and South that think it's overrated. Gang, they went toe to toe with Georgia in back-to-back years. Could have won both.

One possession games. Field goal games. Well, outside Alabama, who's beaten Georgia regularly? So if you can go toe-to-to-to-to-to-with Georgia, I think there's about five to six programs in the country that could. Bama, LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Notre Dame. Certainly nobody right now out west. I think Notre Dame is now an underrated program, though overrated for most of my adult life.

Dear Colin, you're talking a lot about the USC job. Nobody cares about the USC job. Well, that's a bad question and a bad statement. Folks, any job in America where you can be based in Los Angeles and make somewhere between $8 and $10 million a year? It's going to be of interest to professionals. Do you know the number of football jobs in America? You have 130 Division I programs. Six would consider paying you $8 million a year.

In the NFL, five or six owners would pay $8 million a year. There's maybe 10 jobs, maybe 12, that are going to pay what USC is going to pay. And every time USC gets the right coach, they win or vie for national champions. chips. USC is going to steal your girlfriend. Get used to it. They're going to steal your football coach. They're not going to hire an unemployed guy. The chances of that are probably remote. They're going to hire whoever they want to hire because nothing against James Franklin at Penn State. Penn State's in rural Pennsylvania. They're not in a state with half as many players, high school stars, as Los Angeles. Luke Fickle, if they want him, they'll have him. Dan Campbell,

Want him, they'll have him. Very few places in the country in college football, USC can't steal your coach. I don't think they'll steal Mario Cristobal at Oregon because of their relationship with Phil Knight. That's the only job, to me, west of Denver, they couldn't steal a coach. They're not going to get Sabine, he's 70. They're not going to get Sark because he just committed to Texas. But they can get anybody virtually they want. $10 million and living on the beach in L.A.

The wife likes it, the kids like it, the coach likes it, and they will win instantly because the Pact 12 has never, ever been weaker. All right, everybody. This is our Friday podcast for the next 20 weeks, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer for the Action Network. First two weeks, I did okay. Not great. Sub 500. Why? Didn't love the lines.

I think this is the best. week of line so far. In fact, I've already made three bets, and I think I got the better line in all of them. So we'll talk about that for the next 20 minutes with Chad Milman. Let's start with this. I bet the Washington football team plus eight and a half. It's now down to seven. So I think I got a much better line. So whereas on the Blazing Five, I'm going to use the line that's available now. I already bet this at eight and a half. Josh Allen's accuracy, little troubling. It's reversed. It's reverted back about 12 months. He struggled with it.

And the Washington football team, awful loss. One of the things that jumps out to me is this is a very talented defensive front that is yet to play well. I think there's a sense of let's get our shit together. Ron Rivera is going to be on these guys. They also know now that with Taylor Heineke, it's not as dynamic in offense. They have to play better. I love the Washington football team at the number I got. I still think they're the side.

plus seven, though I don't feel that with as much conviction. Your thoughts? Sharp or square? That is 100% sharp at the eight and a half. It opened at nine and a half. As you noted, it's moved down to seven, no longer getting the best of the number. 100% eight and a half sharp play. On the favorites, the podcast that I do with professional better Simon Hunter on the volume podcast network, we will talk about every game on the slate on our Tuesday show. And in, Evidably before the Thursday show, Simon, who lived in Vegas forever and now best professionally in New Jersey, knows all the wise guys. He will get calls from everybody in Vegas saying, I like this pick, I don't like this pick. You're not seeing the board on this pick, whatever it is.

The game we got the most calls about from Tuesday to Thursday this week was the Washington football team, which we talked about on Tuesday. And by Thursday, the line had moved, as you discussed, considerably. This was the sharp play of the early to midweek for the NFL, for professional betters. The Washington football team defense, let's get this out of the way. Everyone thought they would be amazing. Everyone thought their front four was on the path to becoming historically great. They have not been. They were incredibly disappointing against the Chargers in week one. They were incredibly disappointing against the Giants in week two. Their secondary is dreadful amongst the worst in the league, but some stats working in their favor.

For one, Ron Rivera, his teams play a close. And in his tenure with the Washington football team, only four of his games have been decided by more than eight points in either direction. Second, and this is big, really big. The bills just blew out the Miami Dolphins, right? Massive, massive win. Since 2003, favorites, off of wins of 35 points or more. like the bills, cover at just a 42% clip.

And this isn't some sample size that's like five games. We're talking about well over 100 games in the sample size. So there's enough there to make you feel comfortable about what precedent is telling you this situation looks like. I will say in September, obviously it's a much smaller sample size. But the betters and the tend to overreact the most to blowouts. So in September, there's only been about 11 games. Those favorites have only covered once. So you're on the right side.

The precedent is on the right side. I do think what you said about Josh Allen is accurate. From market to trends to field, you were on the right side. I'm going to throw another game at you. Chargers are the Chiefs. I would take Kansas City minus six and a half. First of all, they're off a loss. Andy Reid bounces back off losses.

Second of all, the Chargers looked a lot. like Anthony Lynn, which is, oh, they outplayed a team, but had a bunch of penalties, hit a crossbar, and screwed themselves late. Until I can be assured that the Chargers are different than they've been for several years, which is talented, but give games away. I am not betting them. Also, Andy Reed has had his number against the Chargers. I don't love the fact that Kansas City's run defense has been gashed.

But I also have to acknowledge that Cleveland and Baltimore, may have the two best run offenses. So let's not overreact to that. Kansas City's defense is healthier. I take the Chiefs at minus six and a half. All right. This is 100% the square play. The Chargers are everything you want in a wise guy play.

In fact, the majority of the bets right now are coming in on the Chiefs. The line has still moved down to six and a half. It's moving in the Chargers direction. And here's the thing about the Chiefs. And everyone has always said, Andy Reid off a bye, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in September. It's impossible to beat them. Everything is impossible until it's not impossible anymore. And we saw last week with the Ravens, it's not impossible to beat the Chiefs in September with this defense that is really terrible.

They were statistically 31st in DVOA last year. That's a fancy metric to say, you're not very good and measure strength of schedule. and sort of every single down statistic. They were terrible last year. They are worse this year. They could not stop the pass. They could not stop the run against the Ravens, right? So the chiefs are always going to come in overinflated

because bookmakers know that squares are going to take whatever the number is. The line pro-betters are making in this game is more like three and a half or four. So as a chargers better, you are getting about two and a half to three, three points of value. Also, excluding a meaningless week 17 game last year, the Chiefs are one and eight in their last nine games against the spread. All of those games have been one score.

And that's because they consistently are overinflated. Finally, I will give you this trend, which has about 800 games in it. And it's applicable to a couple games this weekend. Divisional games are always close. And the Chargers and the Chiefs have been playing one score games the past couple of years. Anthony Lynn or not. Since 2003, divisional dogs, three or more. 408, 358, 18 against the spread. It's a little north of 53%, which is about what you need to be a profitable better. All right. Play the Chargers in this one, Colin. Just play the Chargers. Biggest game a week three Monday night matchup. Eagles in Dallas, Fandool Sportsbook is about to make it even bigger because Fandle is going to give new customers 30 to one odds, 30 to one odds on either team to win.

That means $150 on a $5 bet. I like the Eagles plus three and a half. I thought they had a very good loss to the San Francisco 49ers. I also think they're hard to judge early because of the improvement week-to-week of Jalen Hertz. I think Dallas was lucky to win. They're overvalued. Eagles undervalued. I like Fandul's sportsbook, number one rated sports.

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in an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days I'd put on 10 pounds, I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement

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All right. Here's the other one I've already bet. I got a better number. This week, all the numbers, the good numbers were on Monday and Tuesday for me. So I took the Patriots minus two and a half at home against the Saints. And my takeaway simply is, this is why I've been. bet against the Saints last week. They're now a month out of their facility.

They're in hotels. This is not a Drew Breeze Saints team. They've got multiple injuries like they had last week. New England and Bill Belichick not only eat young quarterbacks, they eat turnover prone quarterbacks for lunch. This is still a very, very limited receiving. core. I don't trust James against Belichick.

And I think actually New England, because they played so many starters in preseason, I've got a good sense of what they are. It's going to be a fairly low-scoring game. But at two and a half, I love New England. At three, I'd stomach it. I think they win by about four to six. I'll take the Patriots here.

So at two and a half, it is 100% the sharp play. Like, that is the number. You want to get the home team at less than a field goal. You want to get a home team like the Patriots that play close games. They aren't going to turn the ball over. And more importantly, they control the trenches, right? So that's what you saw Carolina did against New Orleans and what you saw Green Bay not do against New Orleans. So when James Winston had all the time in the world, the Saints were successful because he was able to see down the field and pick apart the Packers secondary.

When the Carolina Panthers controlled the trenches, all of a sudden, James, he's not as good. He goes back to be in the old James. And if the Patriots can do anything right now, what Bill Belichick did with this team, we've talked about this, build from the inside out. And that's what he's been doing. Offensive line, defensive line, they will control the trenches. I like it at two and a half. It's a pass for me at three. I would stay away just because it's right on a key number and there's no value. And as you noted, you got to play the hook one way or the other. Okay, I've got, by the way, I love the numbers this week. I already bet this game.

I got a better number at three and a half. Bengals outright winner over the Steelers. Ben is hurt. They get no push offensively. Joe Burrow had one of his worst halves as a pro. He's a bounce back kid. The Bengals don't let you beat him over the top. I think they're pretty effective there.

This to me is an easy one. Burroughs been largely effective with or without pressure, and the Steelers will have pressure, but not as much without T.J. Watt. And by the way, Ben hasn't been throwing at practice this week. Okay. So this is a bad offense when he could throw. I think this is one of the better bets on the board. Three, again, soft for me, but I got him at three and a half. I love the Bengals outright to win. you are getting too smart for an average sharp square. Okay. See, I've been seeking accreditation. So can I at least apply? Listen, at this point, at this point, your diploma is like within reach. Okay. You are standing on the high dive.

You are ready to jump off. I'm like third in line at DMV. I can see, I can, I can see, hear the breathing of the lady behind the glass. You are so close because you know what, you know what's interesting, honestly. Like this is a little inside media baseball, but I think people would appreciate it. You and I have been talking about betting for years, right? And we used to do the segment when we were doing Collins football show at ESPN. And if I would come on the radio with you or whatever it was,

we would do Sharp and Square. And you would ask me about games on Sunday morning. And we're talking about games where I know the line that I'm telling people isn't nearly as good because you could have gotten it earlier in the week. Yeah. And so now you're betting games when the people. when the professional betters are betting games. You did it.

The Bengals is exactly right. The Washington football team is exactly right. The Patriots is exactly right. This game, the Bengals game opened at four and a half. Yeah, I didn't get four and a half. I got three and a half. I waited a day and I got burned. But it's a really good side.

It's fine. It's a really good side. And honestly, a lot of professional betters right now would tell you, they'd be comfortable taking the Bengals on the money line, meaning to win outright. And if they can't get this game, back to three and a half, which is entirely possible, it won't go that way because the majority of the bets and the money is coming in on the Bengals. They will tell you they'll be comfortable betting

the Bengals outright rather than betting the Bengals at a bad number, which is the plus three right now because there's no real advantage. So, yeah, this was at four and a half. It was a Bengals play. At four, it was a Bengals play. At three and a half, it was a Bengals play. 100% the sharp side. This was hit immediately. There are a lot of injury concerns for the Steelers, not just what's going on with Ben, what's going on with TJ Wat, what's going on with Devante Washington, right? The offense has clearly had issues. And I think a lot of us, including you and I, were encouraged by what we saw with the Steelers against the bills in the second half when Ben was controlling the line, was controlling the ball, making the right decisions.

They got out of their sort of offensive doldrums and really put it to the bills in the second half. But what happened last week against the Raiders was seeing that this is a one-dimensional team that really is entirely reliant on play action pass or the run. And that's not going to serve them well now that everybody is understanding that. And a lot of their players are injured. And so, you know, we both like Pittsburgh last week. But one thing I did mention with Pittsburgh is Mike Tomlin, Mike Tomlin as a favorite against bad teams is a significantly different coach than when he can be Ra Ra and Mike Tomlin. All those things are combining to create a brew that is why professional betters like the Bengals so much. And I include you in that category. Here's the rare game

where the lion's gotten better as the week has progressed. Dolphins now plus four and a half at the Raiders. And I like the dolphins at four and a half. I didn't at the three, three and a half. Here's why. Because when two is overvalued by the market, two gets hurt and Jacoby Brissette comes in. Well, I would make the argument. I like Brissette more than two of them. I like Miami more with Brissette standing, bigger, stronger, better arm. I think Tua doesn't have the respect of his teammates. I wouldn't be surprised if Brissette wasn't more well liked in the locker room. He's been well liked in every locker room.

He's been in a total pro, humble. He's a big, strong kid. You can win games. I like the Dolphins plus four and a half of the Raiders. Now, I will say the one thing the Raiders are doing, they're getting a tremendous pass rush, as Greg Kosell told me this week, without bringing extra peace. people. And Miami's offensive line is still a work in progress. But the value here, the line's gotten better. I like the dolphins plus four and a half at the Raiders who are, you know, coming

off in a two back-to-back emotional wins, a little bit of a natural letdown playing a backup quarterback at home. I like the dolphins. So, so sharp. I don't even know what to say right now. This is a streak of epic proportions. 100% the wise guys love the dolphins here. The key is what you said about Jacobi Brissette. There is not a single wise guy who is over adjusting his line on this game because Jacoby Brissette is playing instead of Tua, right? That is a number that the line has moved considerably.

It's moved to about a point and a half. There is not a point and a half difference in how professional betters power rate this number. So now they are getting that significant edge, that point and a half edge on the dolphins. And also, this is a game where you have to go against the public sentiment. The public is all in on the Raiders after they've upset. And I want to emphasize upset two teams that had huge public backing. Okay. So now that has dramatically changed their perception in the market. It's why the line has moved up so aggressively with the backup quarterback. All the betting tickets are on the Raiders right now.

This tells you a lot. But the money is split, meaning professional money is coming in and eveninging out the actual amount of money on the games, even though the public is coming in aggressively with the individual tickets. It's $10 ticket, $10 ticket on the Raiders, $100 ticket, $100 ticket on Miami. Here is a good friend for you. Miami is off of a more than four touchdown loss. So four touchdown loss or more since 2003 covering 62% clip.

It's like your instincts are so spot on that if all of these games cover, the apocalypse actually has happened. It's not the pandemic that was the signal. It was you getting sharp. Okay. So here's my next bet I've already made. I got a better number. I got the Eagles plus four at Dallas. So I already got four.

It's down to three and a half. So I'm going to have a big week. Screwblazing five. I'm going to have a great week. And that's why I tell people, listen to this show, because I'm making my bets now earlier. So I got the Eagles plus four. It's now at three and a half at Dallas. Here's my takeaway.

That was a good loss for them. Jalen Hertz is going to face very few defensive fronts that are that aggressive. Philadelphia, Jimmy Garoppolo struggled in the first half. This was an ugly, ugly game. If you take what we perceive Philadelphia, to be before the first nap of the year and what we perceived the Niners to be before the first nap of the year. That game had blowout written all over it. No, San Francisco was better, but it was a good loss for Philadelphia. Remember, Jalen Hertz is in the process. He doesn't have

very many starts. We're really in a growth arc right now for him. And his ceiling, I think, is lower. But we're not, we're getting, when you haven't done, when you're learning Spanish, the first six months, you're taking giant steps. And then you get to a point. It's baby steps. You've learned basic communication. Jalen Hertz is still taking giant steps. He is getting four and five practices film study.

This guy got yanked last year as a starter. Got yanked. Got benched in a game he was winning. I like the Eagles plus four. It's a division game. I think the Eagles defensive line is pretty damn good. and is going to keep them in some of these games. This is, I don't know if they win, but possible upset.

This is a game I've already bet Eagles plus three and a half here. Dude, you are 100% attacking it the right way. The Eagles are absolutely the sharp side. The Eagles were the sharp side last week, and you pointed it out with the Niners. I agree that was a good loss. You give me that game 10 times with that number in that scenario. I am going to take the Eagles. They were a very public dog last week.

What's really interesting to be is that we are. are getting to a place in football where analytics is meeting courage. There is less and less cover your ass decision making happening. And that can often play out advantageously for betters and sometimes it can hurt you. We saw with the Eagles last week how often they went forward on fourth and goal. A couple of times did they decide to settle for a field goal? We're having a different conversation about the Eagles being off of a good loss. We saw it with the Colts going forward consistently on fourth and goal against the Rams. We saw it with Miami. They ended up losing by, you know, 35 points, but there were so many times they went for it inside the goal line.

Coaches are realizing, A, seven points is better than three points. B, if you lose by three or you lose by 30, it's still a loss. You might as well go for the win. We saw it with the Ravens. go for that win against Kansas City. If you get it then, the game is over. You see John Harbaugh on the sideline, ask Lamar Jackson, you want to go for it on fourth and one, game over. 100% this is the right side. The number has been moving in the Eagles direction.

Candidly, our models have this game projected at Eagles plus two. So for context, that is about a 5% edge between what we projected at and what the number is actually at. anything that it's one, one, one and a half percent or higher for professional better is usually a play. And this is also over a key number of three where a lot of games land, a lot of divisional games, like we just talked about with the chargers and the chiefs, with the bangles and the Steelers. And then finally just look at the market. Like the Cowboys beat a team, the public and the Sharps love in the Chargers.

And the Eagles loss is a public dog the week before. So that's why you're getting that edge. The market is overinflated on one side and underinflated on the other. All right. I waited for a number and I didn't get, so I'm going to pass on it, but I want the audience to learn something and I want to learn something as well. So the Browns were minus seven and a half and I was waiting for it to go to eight. And if it did, I was going to bet Chicago because the bears are getting some, an interior lineman back. They're getting healthier on defense.

And I do think there's an element of surprise with Justin Fields. And the Brown's defense, seven new starters, is clearly a work in progress. the number never went to eight it came back down to seven i would pass so this is one i just kept waiting and waiting i thought i didn't know i didn't know what side it would go to i had no acumen here i just said if it goes to eight i'm going to jump on it it didn't it went to seven i'd pass so i think it's a pass but but i i did think if you did get seven and a half and you're a bears fan that's not a terrible place to be sharper square how does that work for you you know that it's sharp If you're telling me I'm getting a underdog at seven and a half, if that's the question,

that's the sharp play. That was already the sharp play. At seven, you're the professional here. It's not a game that professionals are jumping on at all. This is a game actually opened at seven. It got that up to seven and a half. The pros immediately took the bears at seven and a half. It went all the way down to six and a half.

Then the pros took the Browns at minus six and a half. Now it's landed on seven and it's just sitting there. And there's really nothing to do. You do have the Justin Fields factor. Either you believe that he is going to be a great quarterback who, if you watch that game against Cincinnati, he was making professional football throws. He showed incredible speed to the edge. He also held the ball forever.

And as much as I'm a huge Bears fan. And I completely think that the Bears should be playing Justin Fields. I think that he gives him the best chance to win. I think if you're in the locker room, you're looking at Matt Nagy and you're thinking, why aren't you putting the best guy in the field to help us win football games? I do think the one thing Andy Dalton has always been good at is getting the ball out fast. He is top five in fastest release the past five seasons according to the next gen stats. And Justin Fields did hold the ball way too long in that game last weekend.

And a couple times it did cost him. So I understand why the number is bouncing around, why it's landing on seven. And I got to tell you, like, we'll talk about the Brown's defense, it's okay. but you give me a pass rush with its ears pinned back that stars Miles Garrett against a rookie QB on the road who holds the ball too long and is still processing in real time. I would have to take the Browns or pass. And at 7, I'm going to pass. Here's another one I did not bet, but I strongly considered. I strongly consider taking the Seahawks minus two and a half of the Vikings.

My concern is Minnesota is going to be in a lot of shootouts. because they're like right now the top six offense. And the Seahawks have played mostly good football. They played a very good opener. They played a very good half against Tennessee. They had a lousy fourth quarter. So let's imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw,

unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast.

It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.

I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know.

I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase

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Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Not jump off the Seahawks bandwagon. But I do think Minnesota is a desperate football team at home getting points. I stay away from this. game. I think Seattle wins. I just don't like the number. If it was pick-um, I'd take Seattle. Maybe it's won. But I'm going to stay away from it. I don't like betting against coaches I respect and offenses that are capable at home and they're desperate. I just not comfortable going. I'm

not comfortable. But I thought it was, it was a, I wanted to explain this to people listening because I think this is a game I considered. And I just, I got a coach I like. I got an offense I like, they're at home and they're desperate. I'm staying away from it. It is, to me, it is the hardest game on the board. And you know what's interesting? Normally, you know, you and I will talk during the week, and I think we didn't connect earlier this week because I was traveling this week, but I didn't know you were going to come at me with all these games until about midday today. And so I was doing a little bit of work, and I saw this game, and I thought you were going to take the Seahawks. I think, and I wrote in my notes, Minnesota is the sharp side in this game at plus two and a half,

but it is a really hard game to handicap. And it sort of brings together everything that professional betters think about. 33% of the bets are coming in on the Vikings, but they're getting 60% of the money. That is a classic Pro's Joe's formula. The Vikings are 0-2. 0-2 teams at home, the betting public over adjusts too quickly, which leaves you an opportunity. Mike Zimmer, off of the loss against the spread. You mentioned respecting coaches amongst the best coaches in the NFL.

He gets his team ready to play, and they are almost always in these games until the end. You saw it last week against Arizona, same spot, right? So you have to ask yourself, did they lose to a better than expected Bengals team? Did they lose on a fluke to a better than expected carnal team? Are they actually not that good? Like their corners are awful. They're going against Russell Wilson, T.J. Lockett, D.K. Metcalfe. And their due on the struggle against mobile quarterback.

So you've got a lot of market conditions, a lot of trends in their favor. But on the field, you might have a team in Seattle that is actually just better than they are. And their strengths match up against the Vikings weaknesses, which is why I agree with you. I'm walking away from this game. A story of the rose is a story of love. Go to FTD.com and save 15% through February 14th with Code Crush 15

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So I really like my picks this week. I love to. Yeah. No, I think there are weeks. I saw it. And it happens about three or four times a year. When I look up Monday, I'm like, holy shit, these are great. lines and I bet all of them. And I got better numbers with all of them except Miami, which I think

later in the week I got half a point. So I didn't bet that. But the three I jumped on was the Washington football team. I jumped on the Patriots. I jumped on the Bengals and I jumped on the Eagles. Those games, I just, they just screamed. You know, it was funny because last week, I told you this. It was a weird week. I could talk myself in and out of stuff. This week, great. Sometimes you see the board clearly, you know, and it's a joy when you feel like, and these opportunities really come the most in the first four weeks, because that's when people are overreacting to certain things they see on the field or they're not seeing every game. So they're only reacting to what they see is the final score. The Eagles Cowboys game is a perfect example of that. I think the Chargers, like, I'm probably not with you on the Chiefs on that one. That is going to be the sharp side. Can I interest you in, any Jacksonville Jaguars plus seven and a half at home. Oh, boy. You know, I never liked Arugula, and so I never experimented with it.

And so I don't have the kind of personality that I feel a need to try things that I don't like. So I don't like the Jaguars. I feel no need to jump on the, and that's my personality. I don't drink rum. I have no interest to ever try rum. And so I'm never going to jump out of a plane. It doesn't interest me.

So a lot of people have these cravings. And I do not. And so I am not going to touch Jacksonville. And let me guess you love them this week. No, it's funny. Look, they're definitely the sharp side. And I feel like in every conversation you and I have ever had about betting, I will tell you Jacksonville is the sharp side.

And this is the first weekend in which I'm looking at Jacksonville and thinking, of course, they're the sharp side. You know, they're an 0-and-2 team, huge underdog at home. Every single trend system, every single marking condition is lining up to bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars. And I can't do it because I think Urban Meyer is so bad. I think what that conversation that was picked up with Vic Fangio and then Big Van Gogh talking about it. Every week we're playing Alabama. Like, no shit, dude. What did you think? Like, you're going to get Akron every once in a while? You've got the worst team in NFL, in the NFL, with a quarterback who's a rookie, and you're out of your depth. Every week is Alabama? Every week is

the freaking Patriots for you. It gave me a huge lack of confidence in betting the Jacksonville Jaguars as underdogs. Do you think he's, do you think Urban, if he goes one in 16, quit. Dude, if he goes one and 11, he might quit. It would not surprise me at all if he did not make his or this season. You know what? So I don't think he is, but I have a friend who knows Urban and has dealt with him for years.

He's a Midwest Big Ten guy and says, and he told me this week, he goes, don't, don't shake off USC. He goes, if this thing is one in 16 and Shad Khan gets wacky, he goes, Urban will bolt in a second. So I don't think it's going to happen, but it is interesting. You know, 0 and 8 may not work. Just 0 and 8. So I don't think the USC thing is in play. But, you know, like everything else, most of life is fluid.

You know, one of the things I tell my kids all the time, something isn't true until it's true. You know, you just don't know. Like you look at stuff and you go, that's not true. And then it happens. And there are surprises every day in the world. world. And you're like, whoa, like, it is true. And so I, at this point, I don't give USC any shot. But Urban is mobile. He's a very mobile coach. As we said in the beginning of the show, in relation to the Chiefs in September and losing, everything is impossible until it's no longer

are impossible. Urban Meyer leaving in the middle of the season would not be impossible to me. God. That's it. That's all I got to say. I got one more thing for you. As you know, we've gifted you an entry into the survivor pool. I won last week, too. You're doing great. You're killing it. You are going to win a lot of money off this. I'm excited for you. This week, we've decided, It's Thursday afternoon when we recorded this. I know this comes out on Friday. So people will know the answer. But it came down today to the Panthers and the Broncos.

And the feeling is that we won't get a chance to use the Panthers again. There might be situations in which their schedule is more difficult at the end of the year. So we've decided to take a shot. It's always scary to take a big road favorite on a Thursday night game. But we're going with the Panthers. Yeah, I don't love it as a lock, but I will say this. the Texans are now down to the backup to their backup. So and Matt Rule has jumped out to two quick leads with Darnold.

And that's so he's a good schemer. And Sam with a lead in a running game is a different quarterback than Sam trailing in New York with no running game. You know, also, I don't know if I told you this last week. There's a remarkable NFL stat with Matt Ruhl. It doesn't even make sense. With two starts with Sam Darnold. and 16 or 17 with Teddy Bridgewater. He has the fewest three in outs in the NFL since the beginning of last year.

Not Mahomes, not Rogers, not Brady, not Russell. Matt Rule. This is a really sharp coach. Darnold is throwing to open receivers, open receivers in single coverage.

Like they, Darnold's just not throwing and do, double coverage, which was his propensity in New York. People are schemed open. He's mostly going to his first reads. Watch him. It's three-step balls out. First read guy open. That's coaching. You know what's really interesting. And I know we got to get going. But what's really interesting is the opportunity with the Panthers. I love them going into the season. Simon Hunter, my co-host, love them going into the season. We thought this was a team that is incredibly well coached and was going to be undervalued because of what they did last year. So of course, week one, love them against the Jets.

They cover just inside the number. The number had bounced around from five and a half when it got down to four. We bet them at four. They won by five against the Jets. Last week, we felt like great opportunity, home under against the Saints, pound the Carolina Panthers. Love it. Immediately, when that game started, I knew the opportunity to make money on the Panthers for professional betters was over. No more value. It's gone. That timeline for getting to take advantage of teams where you think you're going to see value before the market catches up is over. You mentioned Fandle before.

You mentioned Action Network before. There's so many more casual betters in the market who are betting real money. And it's changing the movement of these lines. You've got to get in early if you want to get the four and a half on the Bengals. If you want to get the number on the Patriots. And we're seeing everything accelerate. It's getting harder and harder to maintain the value. you. All right, my friend, this is, I feel very strong about this week. I want to make some people some money.

I got better numbers early, but nonetheless, I'm still like my sides. Me too, brother. All right, buddy. That's Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer Action Network. Go follow us. At the Volume Sports, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, rate review, subscribe. Good stuff. Have a great weekend. Valentine's Day is almost here and you know what that means. It's time to. Luckily, you know what makes her blush. Fresh blooms and gifts from Pro Flowers. Head over to Proflowers.com and use code Crush 15 through February 14th and get 15% off all the best blooms and gifts that will really make your special someone on Valentine's Day. Get fresh this Valentine's Day with Pro Flowers. See website for details. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.

me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends

on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey,

or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Cliford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network, on TikTok.

On The Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors.

Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your. Podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed

human.