The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd’s Blazin’ 5: 02/02/2019

Episode Date: February 2, 2019

Colin makes his final pick of what has been one of his best Blazing 5 seasons ever.  RJ Bell of pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio tells him which side of the Super Bowl the wise guys in Vegas are on and which prop bets are most intriguing for people to wager on. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise,

breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue with 42. Hey, Wreck, my mama want you to weigh better. What? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. you just understood.

That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis, coming to him, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, everybody. Welcome to our Saturday podcast. All right, first, let me give you my Blazing Five, my pick, my Blazing One. That's a hot one. Let's Blaze It Up. It's Collins Blazing Five.

Patriots versus Rams. Okay, right now, New England is favored by two and a half, minus two and a half. Here are the reasons you should like the Rams. Okay, first of all, Los Angeles will be the best offense that New England has ever faced in a Super Bowl. And New England scores a lot of points. Philadelphia beat them not because of their great defense. Philadelphia outscored New England. You're not going to hold Brady, Belichick, and this team to 17 points.

It's not going to happen. So a reason to like the Rams is this is the best offense, and it would be even better if they had Cooper Cups. The Rams have the six best offensive line in the NFL. That's a real good thing, according to Pro Football focused. A lot of their wins this year, Houston's got a bad O-line. Kansas City's O-Line's got some good players, not great. Chargers O line the weak part of their team.

A one team that thumped New England, Tennessee, at a very good offensive line the Rams do. They're also very good in shootouts. They're five and one in games where both teams score 30 or more. They've averaged 195 yards rushing over the last four games. Those are all reasons to like the Rams. I also like this. The Rams have more sacks from Interior linemen,

25 than any team in the NFL, and they have hit the quarterback over 100. times. Teams that have hit the quarterback over a hundred times on a season, the Giants and the Eagles are 2 and 0 against Tom Brady. There are a lot of reasons to like the Rams here. They're good in shootouts. Okay. They are the best offense they've faced. They have a very good offensive line. That gives New England trouble. And last is that their defensive line, hits the quarterback from the interior, and the two teams that do that, Philadelphia won a Super Bowl because it did that, and the Giants gave them trouble.

Now here are reasons why you should like New England. They're 6 and 0 against playoff teams this year. They had some stinkers against Miami and Tennessee. But when they played really good teams that made the playoffs, they rose to the occasion. They destroyed the Chargers. They went into Kansas City. I know it was overtime, but really controlled the Kansas City Chiefs. beat him twice. Here's another reason

to like him. They go forward. They don't beat themselves. They have only 22 times this year a rushing attempt that got negative yards. This offensive line was seen as a weakness. It is now, at least in the center and guard positions,

as good as any offensive line in the NFL, only 22 times that they go backwards on a running play. Also, Brady, as he's age, needs more rest. The Chargers game off rest. He was unbelievable. He's got rest, and he's got 300 plus passing yards in nine of his last 11 playoff games. This is also a big factor. Brandon Cooks was a patriot. They know him well.

Robert Woods was a Buffalo Bill with Stefan Gilmore for four years. Gilmore's New England's best corner. They'll probably put him on Woods. Big advantage, New England. But more than anything, the game comes down to this. I've got to a lot of definitive data and answers. But I have one big question about the Rams. What's up with Todd Gurley? If I knew he was healthy, I'd be very comfortable picking Los Angeles. But he posted career lows in touches and yards last week, two weeks ago, averaging only

50 yards a game since week 14. And I cannot take the Rams who enter the game not only without Cooper Cup. but perhaps Todd Gurley at 60-70 percent, and with that, I would put a little money, not a ton on the Patriots winning the game 34 to 26 in a game in a game in which Brady gets hit a few times. The Rams are a worthy opponent, but I think that James White, Sony Michelle, eat the clock, keep it away from Sean McVeigh, Goughley, C.J. Anderson, Robert Woods, Brandon Cookin at O'Line, prevail. 3428.

3428, by the way. It would be a cover, 3428. You know, I was never really loyal to one brand of clothing my entire life. I opened my closet, grab whatever's hanging there, whatever's clean. And then I got my first Peter Milar polo. It was a total game changer. Now it's in the closet, and I got six or seven Peter Milar's shirts. that's comfortable. The more clothing I own from Peter Millar, the more impressed I am. Not just the feel,

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That's how much I like Peter Millar. R-J Bell, founder of pregame.com at RJ in Las Vegas. They are the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press. All right. So I feel RJ that the best number was when it was very early, Rams favored or pickum. I took New England. As the line moves, as you've taught me, you're betting numbers, not teams. If the line got to three, three and a half, you know, I probably three and a half go Rams.

But my gut feeling is here from experience to health, Cooper Cup, Jared Goffs never been the same since he got hurt. I don't know what I get from Todd Gurley physically. I just don't think they can beat New England in this spot without Cooper Cup. Goff's numbers have declined since he left and without really knowing what I get with Todd Gurley. So what are the wise guys think? I think Patriots are the side. Now, this is not obvious, meaning it's not like all of the sharps are on the pads because we don't know what the sharps are going to do once this number goes to three.

If it does. I was pretty confident it was going to get to Pat's three a couple days ago. Now we're hitting the weekend. I'm less confident of that. And what's going to happen is imagine there's a new car you're thinking of buying. There's like 10 of them in the lot. You're hoping they discount it. You're waiting.

You're waiting. And finally, though, when there's one car left, if you want it, you're going to buy it. At some point on Sunday, the Rams potential betters are going to say, huh, doesn't look like three is going to happen. we better bet at two and a half. So I think the smart Rams money is waiting, hoping to get a three. But so far it's been all Pat's money. Now one thing I disagree with you about from your show, you talked about, oh, line opened up Rams 1,

and then the public came in and steamed it up. I thought that Rams 1 was just a bad number. And literally, by game time, 99% of the money being bet will be around 2.5. So yeah, you're right. There were people that grabbed that number, but a vast majority of the battings been at the two and a half number. Here's something else to throw out.

Now, we see this year two things as, you know, it's been kind of uneven for the Patriots. But I went and looked two days ago. The last time they played a stinker was Tennessee. So the truth is, for about two months, they've been playing really well. The second thing is Brady, as he ages, R.J. has been great when he gets extra rest. That Chargers game is the best I've seen in

playing years. So those two things, Brady with rest always tends to not, you know, take it up a notch. And, you know, the Rams have had a, you know, in their last six or seven games, a couple of stinkers. I see New England as a hotter team. Your thoughts? I think you are exactly correct. I mean, it's been 80 plus days since that Tennessee game. On Twitter, I put out, when is the last bad game? Just question, when's the last bad game the Patriots played? I think it's Tennessee. I agree.

Some people said the Steelers. It's like, wait a man. Pittsburgh probably in hindsight is one of the six or seven best teams in the NFL. And that was also the Josh Gordon Week. Yeah. Remember, we found out later. Oh, okay. So that's a situation where there was an explanation for that.

Absolutely. Now, everyone who's looking on the surface only, they're saying, well, Rams are three-point dogs. They won a close game. Pat's were three-point dogs last week. They won a close game. No. Pat's dominated that game. Now, I know they could have lost it, but they dominated that game.

The Rams, they needed a superior performance from golf. That was one of the golf's best games of his career. Well, certainly a best second half. Yeah. Yeah, if you add up the whole game, though, one of the best of his career. If he does that again, great, but it's unlikely. It was a poor performance from Breeze, not just average poor. And I know it wasn't the only factor.

I don't want to get you worked up, but there was that bad late-miss call. That's what it took the Rams to make it. So I think the pads are just a better team. One last thing, you mentioned Brady's rest. Remember when he had that great game against Atlanta in the Super Bowl? That was the year they actually suspended him four games. So he had four less games. As he's aged, he really hasn't played as well late in the season unless he's had buys.

And what's been beautiful here is not only did he have the buy entering the playoffs is week 16 and 17 were both at home. And the Pats were double-digit favorites against the bills and the Jets and both those games. And they ran the ball a ton. So Brady didn't have a lot of energy expended there. Then a buy. Chargers game wasn't emotionally difficult because they dominated one tough game. game against Kansas City, but now another buy, Brady is rested. That's a good thing for an old quarterback. I want to throw this at you. I think it's an advantage that Stefan Gilmore, the Patriots

best corner, played four years with Robert Woods, noses every move. I think it's an advantage that Brandon Cooks was a Patriot for a year, so all those corners have seen him. Remember this. Brandon Cooks had a game this year in which he struggled. It was the Lions. Who's their coach? Matt Patricia. I think a big part of this game is Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks, their two best perimeter weapons. New England knows their moves,

their habits, and their weaknesses. I think that's a big edge for New England. Comment on that. Well, I tell you, I disagree with one part of it. I love 95% of what you said. And honestly, call it next level stuff there. Kudos. All right, so let's start here.

The scariest thing for an NFL player, could be Bill Belichick knows me better than I know myself. That would scare the heck out of me. Right. We went back and looked at Belichick's eight Super Bowls as a head coach. And we looked at how the quarterbacks did versus their season

stats, how the running backs did versus their season stats, and the number one receiver. So three different players. This is fascinating. Quarterbacks, on average, the eight, had more completions, yards, touchdowns, and intercept.

in the Super Bowl. So literally Belichick said, quarterbacks you can throw. That's fine. We're going to let you throw. But Belichick stopped the number one receiver. They actually, number one receiver in those eight games for the team, average 74 yards on the season, 65 in the Super Bowl,

down nine yards. That's significant. So Belichick said, hey, you can throw, but not to your favorite receiver. You're going to have to throw left-handed. Finally, the running backs. the number one running back had less, less attempts, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, rush TDs. So Belichick says, we're going to stop the run first no matter what.

We're going to take away the number one receiver no matter what, and then the quarterback's going to beat us only by throwing to someone other than his number one. So what you just said makes a ton of sense except for Woods. I think what's going to happen is they shut down cooks, and the whole game is going to hinge on what. what Woods is able to do. I agree with you. I'm not super optimistic on him,

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A couple of other things. It'll be a very heavy New England crowd. L.A. is barely popular at home. I don't think they'll travel particularly well. It's a long trip. Second thing, talk about Brady against Wade Phillips. They've met several times. Yeah, so one fun thing we've started doing is looking at

the ticket broker sites and get getting a feel how soft or heavy the demand is. And the talk we're hearing is Rams demand is soft for this game. So, you know, as you know, Colin, you've been in many Super Bowls. There is a sense that there's a lot of corporate people there. So I don't know if the crowd's going to be a big factor either way. Wade Phillips, listen, a lot of talk about, oh, he's got Brady figured out, he's got Belichick figured out. If you look at the numbers, they have met in their career when Phillips was a defensive coordinator.

they've met nine separate times, and in those games, Brady is five and four straight up, or I'm sorry, six and three straight up, five and four against the spread. So you would say, okay, Brady's done fine, almost 300 yards passing, 21 touchdown, seven interceptions. One thing, though, last four games against Phillips, one and three against the spread. So most of those are with Denver. Yes. So with a good defense, he's done well against Brady. One of the kind of bizarre traits of New England and Super Bowls, they don't do anything in the first quarter, but they're always great late. And kind of discussed that, how they tend to be fantastic.

They outplayed Atlanta late, Seattle late, but they're not good early. This is one of the most amazing stats. It's really crazy. Eight Super Bowls, Brady Belichick. So if you look at the first quarter, there's eight. eight quarters, which is two full games, right? Three points, the Pats have scored. Not each game, three points combined.

It's so random. In eight games, I don't think it's random. Because in general, we actually on straight out of Vegas, our show on Fox Sports Radio, we had Heinz Ward on yesterday here on Radio Row, and I asked him, what did you feel like the first quarter of your first Super Bowl? He goes, I don't remember. He goes, I blacked out. I was so nervous.

I don't even remember. Like he watches the game and there's plays he doesn't remember because he was so nervous. I think it makes sense, right? And what do you do when you're nervous? You get conservative. Now, you might say, well, Belichick and Brady, are they nervous? Well, here's the thing about Belichick is he comes in with a standard scheme. And this is something great CoSell talks about.

And then he sees what the opponent's doing and he adjust in the game, right? Whereas some guys come in like Nagy with a script, with all these ideas coming in. Belichick comes in and says, you do what you want to do, then I'm going to stop you. So it makes sense he's going to be very conservative and vanilla early to see what the other team does. Well, you know something?

Actually, the Rams do the same thing. So both of the, meaning a simple schematic set coming in, and then they adjust. So I think this could be a particularly low-scoring first quarter because of the way the two coaches approach it. Oh, by the way, one of my favorite bets of the week, over under first quarter points, 10 and a half under. Interesting.

Gronk played a huge factor in Kansas City. I wouldn't be shocked if he disappears. Oh, I disagree with that. Oh, you think Gronk's coming in big? Here's why. What has Belichick done? And tell me if you agree with this. What has Belichick done with Gromk?

He's protected him, right? He doesn't go over the middle with him much. He doesn't throw to him unless they need to. Remember last year's Steelers game when they threw to Gronk a ton? when they needed to? Well, this is probably Gronk's last game. So what are they protecting? I think it's like you have a car in the garage.

Bill Simmons uses this analogy. You only bring it out on Sundays when it's 72 degrees. But if you're going to get executed the next day, you probably bring it out if it's raining or not. Right. How about this one? I think the Cooper Cup loss earlier in the year, Goff's never been the same. I'll just throw this out. RJ Bell, pregame.com. I see you guys have this. Goff, his longest completion. Yeah, you can bet over under how far his longest completion will be.

Nine straight games without a pass, without a pass, 43 plus yards. You think of Goff and the Rams as big play. But not only do we not know about Gurley, they don't really throw the ball over the top much. Kind of surprising. Especially since Cup left, because in theory all cups are possession receiver, but he opens up the rest of the field. So that's a great bet, right? Because if the over-under is 42-5 yards,

and he's gone nine straight games without 43-plus-yard reception, wow. And Belichick has been, but don't break in general anyway. I really like that under 42-5 yards when it comes to golf. Let me ask you this, Colin. We've been asking this on our show every day. No one can answer it. How in the heck is the girly situation?

The fact, he carried the ball four times in the championship game, and he was not on the injury. report. So in theory, he's not injured. It's almost like LeBron James in the seventh game of a conference final playing like eight minutes. Like, why isn't this being discussed? Oh, no, I think it's a, I think it's a real issue. Something was not right. He dropped a pass. He missed two blocks, and they pulled him out. I don't know. It could be a privacy issue. Maybe it's something personal, but I don't think he's healthy. He hasn't had a big touch game since October. I think they knew in-house that they had to reduce his carries. They kept it quiet. And then I think at the end of the year, McVeigh said,

you know what, we got to go out and get somebody. And I think everything's gone so swimmingly good for the Rams. Because of the controversy against the Saints, that stole the headlines. That's the big narrative this week. Rams were lucky to win. Saints got hosed. But if that didn't happen, I I think the Gurley story would be a bigger story. I just think it's been overwhelmed by the dynasty of the Brady, dynasty coming in the game, and the controversial call. Sometimes stories just get covered more. They're flashier. They're easier for me to dissect.

They're polarizing. Whereas Gurley's just sort of a health issue. It's not a sexy topic. But I agree with you. One of the reasons I like New England. In fact, to be honest with you, I didn't bet a lot in this game. The Gurley situation is an unknown and he's such a valuable asset. I don't feel comfortable betting a lot with this game.

Let me ask you a question. I think you're going to find this interesting. The NFL is obligated by their rules to report injuries. And that's an NFL rule to report them fairly and accurately. Imagine the following, though. There's now hundreds of millions of dollars being bet legally, legally regulated, taxed in the United States. And that number keeps going up. Now, if you invest in a company on the stock market, that CEO owes you the truth.

And if not, you know, it's a fiduciary responsibility. If not, they go to jail. Look at Enron. They lied. They went to jail. How long is it before there's a class action lawsuit that a team lies about an injury? People bet money based on the information, like a CEO giving it out, and they lose money, and they sue them. I mean, there's hundreds of millions being bet on these games, and you said you think Gurley's hurt.

Well, if Gurley's hurt, why isn't he on the injury report? I think over time, injuries won't be discussed. See, I've argued for years. I can't believe that you put players' liabilities physically out there to the public because I've been told by guys like Mark Schlereth, if I know you have a bad shoulder, I'm going after your shoulder. I think over time legally, the NFL will eliminate the injury report. I tell you, the whole HIPAA or whatever, that makes sense.

But boy, that opens up the following. The reason the NFL, and let's give them credit, did this way back when decades ago, is they figure if the injury report is public, there's no inside information. If everyone buddy knows, no gamblers can have an edge. If you start making it where you don't make it public, there is going to be a cottage industry of trainers getting paid off from the biggest betters of the world trying to find inside info. Interesting.

RJ Bell, pregame.com. I like New England by about a touchdown. and how do you feel about it? If I had to bet, I probably won't bet the spread, mostly pros for me, but certainly it would be Patriots. And if you like the Pats, get it before it gets the three. Good talking to you, bud. Thank you.

Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. And every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline.

and we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slical Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy,

not quite. Unhumored me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the 4th. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff.

Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker... You know these kids. This linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out.

Quarterback on office blue with 42. Hey, rep, my mama wants you to wave at her. What? Where's she at? Hey, Ms. Parker. Listen to the Cliverts show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up, fam?

It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was primed. You just

understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to him. He's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an

IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.