The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: 09/08/2018

Episode Date: September 8, 2018

RJ Bell of Pregame.com tells Colin which of his Blazing 5 picks the wise guys in Vegas agree with and which they don't. Plus, Colin includes a bonus pick for week 1 exclusively in this podcast. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to our Saturday podcast. We're going to get to RJ Bell in a second. This is so much fun for me. We've had so much success through the years. When RJ and I, or RJ's wise guys and I agree in a pick, we're like 75, percent. So we have that coming up in a second, plus our blazing five. Remember, smart moves matter. They matter in sports. In sports, they're smart moves and not so smart moves. Call a timeout to set up a final touchdown attempt, smart move. Calling a timeout with none left, not a smart

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Try it now for free. ZipRecruiter.com slash blaze, B-L-A-Z-E. ZipRecruiter.com slash blaze zip recruiter is the smartest way to hire. All right, let's first start with my Blazing Five. That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up. Fire it up. It's Collins, Blazing Five.

Texans at Paysing Five. Patriots. Houston's getting six and a half. Like them, I love them. My strongest number of the week. Bill Belichick, by the way, experiments in September. Only wins 66% of his games.

He wins 83% in December. This is an organization that is trying to win Super Bowls. They'll play around early. Figure out who they are, an extension, if you will, of week three of the preseason. Meanwhile, Deshawn Watson last year gave New England all sorts of trouble. They don't have elite talent to catch him as he runs around in the backfield. By the way, he averaged 34.7 points a game in the starts he had last year,

highest points per game by any starting quarterback in the NFL until he got hurt. Got to tell you right now, this is a massive number. I'm going to take the Houston Texans outright to beat New England 27 to 23. Jaguars at New York Giants. Again, you know I like points. New York Giants at home getting plus six against a conservative offense in Jacksonville. This is an easy one for me.

Odell Beckham's back. Eli Manning's a C quarterback, but he's a B quarterback with Odell Beckham. His quarterback rating gets into the 90s. Seven yards of catch, 270 yards a game. Odell Beckham's healthy with Eli Manning. He becomes a different quarterback at this stage in his career. Jacksonville was 4 and 4 on the road. last year. You get him out of Florida.

In fact, they lost their last three road games last year to average teams. San Francisco, Tennessee, Arizona. And they're a conservative offense to begin with. They lost Marquis Lee, a top receiver for the season. Jacksonville's going to be more conservative.

Giants win this thing. I like the upgrades they've made across the board offensively. Giants win. 24. 23. Bills at Ravens. minus seven. That's a big number, but I'm going to swallow the number and take the Ravens. They have a Mike Tyson quality. You put him at home against the bad quarterback. The Ravens feast on him. And Buffalo's got a bad quarterback situation. Nathan Peterman. Last couple of years, Buffalo's been last in the NFL in yards passing a game at about 183. That's not good.

And Baltimore's defense last couple of years, especially last year was great. Led the NFL in takeaways. Points per game, they were sixth. Baltimore's also. added tight ends and wide receivers in the draft and free agency. And Joe Flacco's got Lamar Jackson breathing down his neck. He's going to play inspired football. This is a big number, but to me it's the one blowout game of the week. Again, Baltimore at home, they may lose to Brady and Big Ben. They feast on bad quarterbacks.

Baltimore wins 31.13. 49ers at Vikings. Listen, I think Minnesota pulls back this year, but I'm going to swallow the six points. Take the Vikings in this one. Minnesota is a very good football team. San Francisco's rebuilding, but they're so glamorous. Jimmy GQ and Kyle Shanahan in a history of Super Bowls. Offensive line, they're rebuilding.

Pass rush, running backs, receiving corps, stopping the run. You got a rebuilding team facing maybe the best roster in the NFL. The Vikings were 7 and 1 at home last year and won by an average of 15, and that's in the NFC. Points per game, yards per game. San Francisco's defense was first in the NFL. I think they pull back a little, but this is an absolutely complete roster at home, and I don't have to give up a touchdown. I'll take Minnesota to win 30 to 20.

Vikings, I'll swallow the six points. Vikings win 30-20. New York Jets and Lions. Monday Night Football, I know what you're saying. Colin, you like Sam Darnold. I do. And I especially like him facing Matt Patricia and the Lions and getting six and a half points. man, I know it's Monday night football.

I know it's a dome. I know Donald's a rookie. But Detroit's defense stinks. That's why they hired a defensive coordinator from New England, Matt Patricia. They can't stop the pass. They don't get to the quarterback. They don't keep points off the scoreboard. Todd Bulls, Jets coach, best coach in the NFL with a losing record.

I like Todd Bowles a lot. Coaching mismatch here. And the other thing is Detroit hasn't had a 100-yard rusher in a game in five years. year since Reggie Bush. So they're going to give that rookie quarterback with that decent wide receiving cord. Not great. Okay. When they're healthy.

It's just too many points. It's just too many points to give Matt Patrish. Matt Stafford didn't have a signature win 10 years in the league. I'm not sure if the Jets win. I'm going to go with the upset. 24-21 Jets. I'm not sure if I'm right on the winning part. But six and a half points with a better coach, significantly better defense.

Not even close. Now we bring in the founder of pregame.com, the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press. Check him out on Twitter at RJ in Vegas. RJ Bell, you're ready to go? Absolutely. Colin, last year you mentioned it when we agreed. Wise guys and Colin, 33 winners, 12 losers. 73%. Wow.

I'm not flying Southwest anymore if I do it again. this year. Here we go, baby. All right. I think New England is better than Houston, but I bet numbers. Texans plus six and a half. Bill Belichick is a little bit of an experimenter in September. It's his worst month. And I still think this offense is a work in progress on the perimeter for New England. I'll take the Texans plus six and a half. What do the wise guys say? biggest agreement of the week. Yeah. Vegas still ranks the Pats as the best team in the NFL.

So I listen to you every day, Colin. I know you're skeptical with this team. And I think rightfully so compared to years past. Because the Pats are in the 7 to 1 range to win the Super Bowl, which is still the favor. But like in years past it's been 3 to 1. But you're right. In September, Belichick is on record of saying he looks at September.

like an extended preseason. And it's really a choice between maximizing your chance to win today or in January. The fact that Belichick has so much equity with his GM, with the fans, he's able to max his chance in January, even if it decreases a little his chance in September. It doesn't mean he doesn't want to win in September, just not sacrificing wins later. Now, here's the question, Deshaun Watson. How good was he when he played last year? Well, we've got advanced metrics for that DVOA

when he was quarterbacking the fifth best offense in the NFL. Without Watson, last, the worst offense in the NFL. Wow. The question, though, Colin, is will he stay healthy? And I think across the season, if you're betting a season win total, if you're betting Superbauds, that's a big question. But for game one, he's healthy. odds are he's going to be healthy this whole game

and the one big weakness lastly that Houston has O line. Pats don't really put much pressure. I think they're D's a little improved this year but not much pressure and remember what is the ethos of the Patriots defense bend but don't break Houston is

all about with Watson big plays a couple of those big plays it goes against the pads trying to give up yards in the middle of the field but not in the red zone. Big agreement Texans plus six and a half. Jags at the Giants plus three. I like New York.

One of the things, we know the Jags play conservatively to protect Blake Bortles. Well, Marquise Lee, not available for the Jags. So that's going to become more, more run dominated, more conservative in Jacksonville. I think it's an edge going into the game for a Giants team that's added a better left tackle, a better running back OBJ, and a really good head coach, Pat Schumer offensively. I got to tell you, I would bet money light. I think the Giants win. I'm going to take them plus three.

What are the wise guys think? You've got agreement, but let's do a caveat here. And this is a strong statement, but it's a teaching moment. The hardest week to win betting the week of the games is week one of the NFL. Has been for me for years, yes. And here's why. If you would have bet this in April, the lines were out week one in April, you could have got Giants plus four and a half.

if you would have bet even a month ago, you could have got Giants plus three and a half. Now it's three. And that difference is huge. For new listeners, every half point counts. That's how the pros win. And thus,

why is it so hard in week one? Because there's months and months for the wise guys to gobble up the good numbers. While next week when we do this, it's only going to be a week in between the release of the lines. So let's agree. Giants are the better side here. just not near as good as they were a month ago or a couple months ago.

Let me ask you a quick question. Where do you put Eli if we had to rank starting quarterbacks 1 to 32? Well, with OBJ 15th, without him 23rd. So I think OBJ matters. You actually think, though, slightly above average with OBJ? Yeah, with OBJ, I think Eli, as long as he has time in the pocket, can make all the throws, yes. All right. Now, that's it. If you're right about that, your optimism about the Giants is warranted. And wise guys agree with you. In general, the Giants have been bet a lot this preseason on the season long stuff, like Super Bowl, like season wins.

I know guys I really respect Colin. They got Eli. Now, this is going to sound shocking. 26, 27. No, I get it. Listen, man, he's a, you go to the pass already in completion percentage without OBJ last three years. he is below average, no question. Now, I'm not sure if OBJ's contract's good for the long term. I think probably not, but I think it's good for now because of team chemistry. And if you actually think about the giant stats last year, I think you've got to throw out the second half of the year. This was a rare time a team really quit on an NFL coach with McAdoo.

And lastly, you mentioned it, Marquise Lee out. That was huge. He was the last pretty girl at the dance, as some would say, when he left, it's pretty barren. And lastly, you mentioned the money line, very savvy. The Jacks play much better with the lead. And the reality is, if they have to throw it from behind, forget about it. But I don't really want the Giants coming from behind either

because the Jacks are so good with that pass rush. So if the Giants do cover this, I think they have an extra good chance to win the game. Yep. And by the way, if you bet the money line, 100 wins you about 135 here, but you're giving up the points. agreement, though, on the Giants. Two and O so far. Okay, I don't like giving up big numbers, but the Ravens are at home minus seven.

And again, I don't like that number. I love it at six and a half. But here's the thing. When I think of the Ravens, they may lose to Big Ben. They may lose to Brady. You give them a weak quarterback in Baltimore through the years, and my imagery is, oh, they crush him. And Buffalo's rebuilding the O line.

Baltimore has a pass rush at home. I'll swallow the seven. It's the one game I feel we'll get ugly this weekend. I'm going to take Ravens minus seven. What are the wise guys think? You know, this is I think our eighth or ninth year doing this. I hate that I'm forced to have an opinion on every game. Right.

This is a slight agreement. And usually laying seven, you're not going to get it. That's a pretty good number. So I'm going to give you slight. Here's why, though, Bill's worst team in the NFL. That's pretty much consensus. Now, they made the playoffs last year. But they weren't even very good there.

They were outscored on the NFL. season, calling by 57 points. Now check this out. When the bills won the turnover battle, they were 8 and 2 straight up. When they didn't, they were 1 and 6 straight up. So they had to have everything go right. And they had to have a quarterback that took care of the ball. Taylor last year threw an interception in less than one out of 100 throws.

Now we got Peterman. Enter Peterman. Last year, he threw an interception in more than 1 out of 10 throws. Rose. Think about that. 10% plus interception rate. Obviously a small sample size. Obviously, too, he's played better in the preseason. The Ravens, when they play an inexperienced quarterback, they feast last two seasons versus rookies and backups, eight and three straight up, versus any other quarterback, the Ravens, seven and 13 straight up. So this is a team that does do well against mediocre or worst quarterbacks. The Ravens do. Last thing.

the thing that makes me only slight here. Since Flacco signed that big contract, there's been 34 quarterbacks have thrown at least 1,000 passes. So, let's say, a lot of sample size. Flacco ranks 33rd, so next to last, in yards per attempt. But they drafted two tight ends,

and they acquired three receivers. I agree. I think they know it's an issue. I like what Baltimore did in the off-season. By the way, I've always felt Baltimore has a Mike Tyson quality. They're a bully. When they pounce... The Harbaugh sure is.

Yeah, I mean, they pounce on the week, struggle with the great, but Buffalo's week. So I have 3-0. I know I'm going to have a winning week. Okay, 49ers Vikings. Here's the thing about the 49ers. There's a glamour to him. Kyle Shanahan's a hot coach. Historically, San Francisco Matters, Jimmy GQ.

But this is a team that's still rebuilding its O-line and rebuilding it secondary. Minnesota is not rebuilding anything. Their roster is arguably the best along with the Rams and Eagles in the NFL. I'm going to swallow the six because that's the right number for me. I think it's a touchdown or so game. I'm going to take the Vikings minus six. Another favorite. What are the wise guys think?

Agreement. This is a rare, bigger favorite that I really like. You know, Minnesota's not football sexy, as I like to say it. Boy, if there's anyone that's football sexy, it's Jimmy G. No question. I mean, we've got a Fasick, you remember last year. He was on with you. in the preview pod, and he picked the Eagles to win the Super Bowl,

and I know you were very high on him, too. Fesick knows his stuff. He is like, he talks about Jimmy G. And his voice cracks a little bit. I mean, it's crazy. Now, there's one last thing to think about, about the idea of football sexy. Week one of the NFL season,

a lot of betters have just done their fantasy draft in the last week or two. So they're thinking about stats. And Minnesota is just not that type of team. So they're not getting the love they deserve. Pro football reference ranks the players, and they have like a ranking of 11, 10, 9, 8. So we looked at all the 8 pluses, 8 or above. There's about 7 per team, a little bit less on average.

Minnesota has the most in the NFL, 14 8 plus players by football reference, pro football reference. And they won 13 games last year, but they should have won even more. If you look at the luck factors in a season, things like turnovers, injuries, close wins, strength of schedule. Minnesota was the least lucky team to have double-digit wins, and they actually had 13 wins.

Last thing, and this is kind of a Vegas secret here, look to bet against Pacific time zone teams that go east, especially in week one. Throughout the regular season, it's accounted for in the line. That disadvantage. Here it's not as much because there was, many night games in the preseason. So it's not like going from a day game last week to a day game to next.

And it's a couple hours earlier. It's like seven, eight, ten hours earlier because you play almost all night games during the preseason. This is the first day game in a while. And now it's going to be at 10 a.m. Pacific. Big disadvantage for the 49ers agree with the Vikings. Okay. I still got a blazing five pick.

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It's casper.com slash colon, terms and conditions apply. All right, I had two games that I waffled on. I'm going to tell you the game I took, and then I'll tell you the game after we're done with this, that I didn't. I'm going to take Jets plus six and a half at the Lions. Listen, everybody loves Matt Stafford's talent. He doesn't have a signature win in the NFL a decade into it. I'm tired of being told how great Matt Stafford is.

I also think Matt Patricia, like all Belichick assistants, is going to struggle. I don't think when I look at the Jets, I've said this. I think Todd Bulls is the best coach with a losing record in the NFL. They won five games last year, and they could have won six more. They got robbed against New England. And maybe I'm just a Sam Darnold Homer. But I'm going to take the Jets in six and a half. Not sure they'll win, but I'm going to take the Jets and the points.

What are the wise guys think? for new listeners. When Colin does a long wind up, you know what's coming. Disagreement here. Well, four and one. Now, I know you're a big fan of movies. You ever see the movie we need to talk about Kevin? No. Okay. It's about a troubled teenager and all that. It's a good movie. We need to talk, Colin, you and I, we need to talk about Sam Darnold. What's the love? I mean, I listen every day. And when you start talking about Darnold, I start rolling my eyes. The next Andrew Luck. I think he's Andrew Luck. I love him. You're right about that. If you look at the preseason,

he had the 57th best quarterback rating. Now, we can say preseason is preseason, but that's all we've got on this guy. Yards per attempt, 83. So let's agree. I think the Jester being smart. They're not throwing down field with them, which I think is smart with a rookie. Get him his reps, but don't put him in a bad spot.

But boy, on the road, in a dome, Monday night football, not throwing downfield with a Jets offensive line that did not play a single snap together in the preseason. You can't back off now. I know you want to. I don't like this spot. By the way, last thing, you're right. Stafford against winning teams, six and 52 straight up.

Yeah, he doesn't win. He doesn't have a signature win. He never wins the big game. He beats a lot of cross. But is this the big game? Because if you look with a line of six and a half, in the last four years, you know, he doesn't have a Last four years, lines is a bigger favorite at home. Six or more, seven and two straight or seven and two against the spread covering those

big numbers. I know that's a small sample, they do do better at home and the lines do do better when they're a favor. Disagreement. I like the lines. You like the Jets. Okay, the game, so it's four and one agreement. Now, the game I didn't take, but nearly took it over this game, the Jets game, was I was

going to take the Dolphins plus one and a half. I think Marcus Mariotta, I don't. I don't think he's any better than Ryan Tannahill. He just is a little more glamorous. Came from that glamorous Oregon program. Got a little better press. I don't trust the Titans organization. So this is the game I didn't take him Blazing Five.

I took the Jets instead. Dolphins plus one and a half. What would the wise guys have thought of that? Oh, agreement there. To me, one of my favorite underrated teams is the dolphins. Dang. I mean, if you look at the six unluckiest teams last year, the other five, dolphins were one of them.

The other five increased their win total. So number of wins last year versus what's expected this year, between one and a half and six games. It went up. The Browns went up six games, right? Zero to six. Well, Miami only went up a half a game. And considering the fact that they, Tanna Hill, to me, is a big upgrade over

Cutler, both on the field and in the locker room, I think the dolphins are underrated. Titans made the playoff, but another team with a negative point differential, even though they made the playoffs, I like the Dolphins. His name is RJ Bell. He's the founder of pregame.com. You can catch him on Twitter at RJ in Vegas, and they are the exclusive odds provider of the Associated Press. Fox Sports Radio as well. Great

stuff. Good opening week. I have never been great on opening weeks. I like to watch stuff unfold. Crossing my fingers for Sam Darnold. I'm crossing my fingers for Sam Darnold. Well, we know that. We know that. Last question, would you rather go one in the Jets cover

or 4 in the Jets'O? Four and one of the Jet Town. I'm not that big of a home. Thanks, Colin. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in.

I'm Timbo. In every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear.

a sports slice on the iheart radio app apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast and for more follow timbo slice of life 12 and the ticot podcast network on ticot another podcast from some s nl late night comedy guy not quite unhumor me with robert smigle and friends me and hilarious guests from bob odenkirk to david leterman help make you funnier this week my guest s n l's mikey day and head writer streeter sidel help an acapella band with their between songs banter Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Life is full of hurdles.

So how do you keep going? On Hurtle with Emily Abadi, we're talking with the most inspiring women in sports and wellness from professional athletes, coaches, and Olympic champions about the challenges that shape them and the mindset that keeps them moving forward. At our level, at this scale, being able to fail in front of the... the entire world. Like, I can do anything. I can do anything. Listen to Hurtle with Emily Abadi on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. I'm Michelle McPhee, and I've been unraveling the strangest criminal alliance I've ever reported on, a Mormon polygamist and an Armenian businessman. Multi-million dollar house, Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, a billion dollar fraud.

But how long can this alliance last? Tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed human.