The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: 09/15/2018

Episode Date: September 15, 2018

RJ Bell of Pregame.com tells Colin which of his Blazing 5 picks the wise guys in Vegas agree with and which they don't. Plus, Colin includes a bonus pick for week 2 exclusively in this podcast. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, here we go. It is our Saturday morning podcast. We're going to get to our blazing five picks and RJ Bell in just a couple of seconds. Listen, in sports,

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blaze, B-L-A-Z-E, ZipRecruiter.com slash blaze. ZipRecruiter is the smartest way to hire. And with that on our Saturday morning podcast, here was yesterday's Blazing 5. That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up. It's Collins, Blazing 5. Anthers at Falcons. Atlanta at home minus five and a half.

I'm going to take the Falcons here, though it's a big number. First of all, they've won three straight against the division rival Carolina at home. And Matt Ryan has played very good against Luke Keeckley and those Panthers in those games. Six TDs in a pick, over 70% completion. There's a lot being made of Atlanta's red zone issues. But, you know, a lot of people struggle against Philadelphia on the road. Carolina had bad red zone issues against Dallas's defense at home. I'm going to take it to win this game 27 to 20. Colts and Redskins.

Like it, I love it. I'll take Indianapolis plus six. We just watched the Bengals last night. They're 2 and 0. They're pretty good. Remember, the defense for the Redskins last year ranked 31st on third down. They couldn't get teams off the field. They didn't improve it that much in one-off season.

The Colts, by the way, against that Bengals team with Andrew Luck, were 11 for 17 on third down. You're not going to find a lot of teams that go 11 for 17 on third down and gets the Bengals all season. Andrew Luck started week one poorly. But after that first interception, the rest of the day, 103 passer rating, 320 yards, 75% completion rate. I'm getting points with a significantly better quarterback, plus Colts O'Line, they've solved it. 3128, I'll take the points. Colts.

Chiefs at Steelers. I know it's a number and it's a big one. I like Pittsburgh minus four and a half. This Pittsburgh team, Big Ben is a completely different quarterback, home and away. It's one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. This is going to be the first real road test for Patrick Mahomes. Go look at the home and road splits for Big Ben. Literally, he's three to one touchdowns to picks at home.

He's almost 50-50 split on the road touchdowns and picks. Patrick Mahomes, welcome to Pittsburgh. The Chiefs gave up last week for the record over 500 yards against the Chargers. This defense in Kansas City, we were paying attention to Andy Reed, Tyreek Hill. Kansas City's defense has issues. I'm going to swallow the points. Pittsburgh wins 31 to 26. Patriots at Jaguars.

I get points and the better defense and the team at home. I'm going to take the Jags plus one. Listen, last year and their defense is the same. defense at just a year savvier and older. Their past defense was number one in the NFL. Their total defense of scoring defense. And this is really their Super Bowl. This is really their Super Bowl. They will play as well this Sunday as they can play. Lennar Furnett's a little banged up. And listen, Belichick is what he is. But here's what I don't like. New England's backfields a mess. Sony Michelle, Miss Week 1 hurt. Rex Burkhead, concussion protocol. Jeremy Hill,

out for the year. They've already got a real issue against Jacksonville on the perimeter. and Jalen Rams, he's going to go one-on-one with Gronk and shut him down. I think this is Jacksonville's Super Bowl. Remember, Belichick's worst month is September. They don't go four-and-oh in September. 26, 23, Jags. Seahawks and Bears. Best bet, perhaps, of the weekend.

I'm going to take Seattle and three and a half. Like it, I love it. The Bears lost. Once they got off script for Mitch Trubesky, he couldn't get first. touchdowns. They're running a college offense. By the way, Seattle lost at Denver. Try winning in Denver first couple of weeks of the year of that altitude. Nobody plays well. Okay, the Bears defense collapsed in the second half against Green Bay. It collapsed. Russell Wilson last year since the start of last season is ninth in passing yards, second in rushing yards, and first and passing

touchdown. I get the better coach, the more experienced coach. I get Russell Wilson. This is a complete quarterback mismatch. Don't buy in to stand alone. Everybody in the world loves the Bears. Everybody in the world loves the Bengals. The Bears were a disaster in the second half.

I get more than a field goal with a Hall of Fame quarterback. Like it, I love it. Seahawks win 24 to 23. That is our blazing five. All right, here we go. Our buddy, RJ Bell, founder of pre-

They are the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press on Twitter at RJ in Vegas. I don't need to bring this up, but of course I will. I beat the wise guys last week. I'm not going to lie. It feels very, very good. Let's be honest, Colin. Last year, when we agreed you were over 70%? Yeah.

When we disagreed, you were about 40%. Yeah. Okay, so you're 1-0 this year. All right, let's start with this. This is one of my tougher games. but the Falcons are getting a lot of heat for red zone issues. And that's fair. But Carolina at home against the Dallas defense had red zone issues.

Falcons are better at home. They've actually been very good against Carolina at home. I'm going to swallow five and a half and take Atlanta here. What are the wise guys think? This is close, but disagreement on this one. And let's compare the point you just made. You said Carolina red zone problems for one game. and Falcons red zone problems since Sarkeesian's been OC.

And we know Shanahan, as you said this week on the show, is a guru at quarterback, and the Falcons were historically good with him. In the time since, far from historically good, even though, and this is a shocker, no team has been bet as much by the wise guys as the Falcons since the beginning of last season. So the wise guys like Atlanta. I mean, just not this week so much. Like we said, disagreement. But if you just look at the line move, let's say you said the opening line versus the close is going to tell you who the wise guys bet.

In general is a good way to look at it. If you actually added up all of those line moves since the start of last season, Falcons have moved in their direction more than any other team. But here's the thing. What is Red Zone about? Is it just bad luck? because a lot of wise guys think bad red zone is just bad luck. I would make the following case. Great schematic coaches, guys like Belichick, guys that can scheme like Shanahan.

Sean McVeigh, yeah. Do better in the red zone. Yes, I agree. Because you've got that small window with 22 players in 20 yards or whatever, let's say. It's hard to score. You know, I don't often quote Einstein, but I'm going to quote him here. Okay. Not everything that can be counted.

counts and not everything that counts can be counted. Einstein said that? He did. I think Screech from Saved by the Bell said that first. You know, I think it was actually in a different order. But think about this. The analytics guys, I know there's always the talk radio debate about Barclay versus, you know, Daryl Morey or whatever, but really I think these analytics guys are too full of themselves. They probably got 97% of it figured out, but they don't have 100%. Atlanta's numbers look great, but the scoreboard never looks as good as their numbers. That's fair.

And I think the red zone is something that they can't figure out why the Falcons aren't good in the red zone. By the way, last thing, two of the Falcons' best defensive players. Maybe they're two best. Neil and Jones out for this game. Keeckley was a little banged up, but he's going to play disagreement on your Falcons pick. All right, I'm going to take the Colts plus six at Washington, and it's really simple. Look looks better than I thought he would look after two years off. I also think the Colts offensive line, I think they kind of solved that, RJ. They look pretty good. And in Cincinnati,

after watching Cincinnati on Thursday, Cincinnati's D-line is good. So I just think I get a significantly better quarterback. Lux's back. I think their old line issues have been settled. I'm going to take the six points with Indy. Agreement here. And this is probably second best agreement. This was my favorite bet of the week. Yeah, this is a good one. And we're doing the super contest this year, but they actually have a gold edition, which is $5,000 to enter. We went four and one last week, the pregame crew, and this is going to be one of our picks, the Colts. So certainly agree with you. No team is as good as they seem in week one when they really seem great, and the Redskins looked mighty good last week. But if you had bet this game a week ago, you could have bet it ahead of time.

The Redskins were favored by three. Now they're favored by five and a half up to six. So what's changed? Well, Washington has looked good in one game. Okay, fine. But Indy looked mighty good. I mean, if you actually watch that game, it was a coin flip at worst against the Bengals. Now, let's reconsider the Bengals. We've got Thursday night football. I know that you were high, and maybe still are, on the Ravens, but the Bengals look mighty good on Thursday. Now the Colts lost doesn't look so bad, especially because it was a coin flip loss. Last thing, I had real questions. And I

know you've got inside info on this, but I had real questions about Andrew Lucks' health. He did not throw down Theo during the preseason. He didn't. In game one, he did. I think those health questions are gone. I really like the Colts plus six. All right, let's go to the Steelers. And again, you

know through the years, generally four of my five picks, I take points. I'm going to take the Steelers minus five. First of all, Big Ben's numbers home and away are different. I can't see the Steelers starting 0-1-1. They were incredibly sloppy and still got on a road game out with a tie. And I think Cleveland's better than people think. I'm going to take the Steelers minus five here. I think, you know, Kansas City and Mahomes, they were so flashy and fun.

I think people are going a little overboard on Kansas City. Steelers minus five. What do the wise guys think? Agreement here. Mahomes certainly has a lot of optimism in general, especially because Andy Reid chose him. And that's important to rematchew. And I'm going to say the same thing about the Patriots in a few minutes here is all the decisions that were made by the Pats were made by the Pats. When they left their left tackle, go to the Giants, they chose that. Obviously, it was a salary issue. But still, this was Andy Reid saying, okay, Alex Smith, go ahead and we want Mahomes. That's good in the long term.

But in this game, you know Pittsburgh's motivated. You mentioned that. And I don't think there's any team that's more emotional. And you often talk about that. When they can be flat, the Steelers, they tend to be flat. But when they're ready to go, national TV, big game, off a loss, a tie against the Browns, motivation is really good. Two secret tips in this game.

Kansas City is playing their fourth road game in five weeks. You might say, wait a minute, RJ, it's only the second week. Well, yeah, but there were two preseason games before that. And you might say preseason doesn't count. But if you're on the road, you still travel. So think about it. These guys have traveled for the last five weeks. And they went to L.A. last week and now across the other side of the country to Pittsburgh.

I think Casey's a little tired. Number two, look to bet against road dogs that won their last game. Because what ends up happening is they're happy they won. Now they're on the road. Maybe they partied a little. Maybe they're not taking the game seriously. If you look over the last 30 years, Road Dogs, Kansas City, that won last week are 46.7% against the spread. So literally over 1,000 games or so, they've won only 46.7%.

I like Pittsburgh. Get back to RJ in a second. Here's why I'm a big fan of Simply Safe Home Security. It's ready for anything that gets thrown at it. If a storm takes out your power, Simply Safe's ready. I mean, we've had some crazy weather in the last couple years. Storm takes out your power. Simply safe's ready.

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Never has been. I recommend SimplySafe to people I know. Go to simplysafe.com slash herd. H-E-R-D. Protect your home, your family, your assets, your pets. Simplysafe.com. Slash heard. All right, two to one agreement. I'm going to go Jags plus one and a half against New England. I think it's really a Jacksonville Super Bowl. I think it's going to be a close game. I think it's

going to be a low scoring game. The Patriots defensive front does look better. But I think this is about intensity. And I think we're looking at a game for Jacksonville Revenge. This is as big a game as they'll play at home this year. Tom Brady, Belichick, iconic figures. I'll take an, I just like getting a better defense at home in a really low scoring game. I'll take the Jags plus one and a half. What do the wise guys think? Disagreement here. Wow, I'm surprised by that.

And it feels like a sharp play. I agree with you. I love simplicity. You talk about this often where life is complicated. If there's something you can just understand as a rule, it makes your life simpler. Don't bet against Belichick. I actually bet Houston last week. I forgot my own rule.

I mean, check this out. If you go back to 2003, there are only six teams in the, actually five teams in the NFL that have a better record than break even if you were betting them in Vegas. Meaning if you bet every team blindly, every week since 2003, there's only five teams you were to win money on. The Patriots, the Packers, the Colts, the Vikings, the Chargers. Wow. Now, this is what's interesting. Here's the win percentage of those teams.

Chargers 53%, Vikings 54, Colts 55, Packers 55, Packers 55. Patriots 60%. So if you actually add up the four other teams that are profitable, their profit is less than the paths. They've won, and this is against the spread. They've covered 60% of games since 2003, and no other team has covered even 55%. It's insane that Belichick is just better than the market gives them credit for. And what we're seeing this year, Colin, is the same thing. Oh, you know, maybe the receivers aren't good enough. Oh, maybe.

But these are all decisions Belichick has made. And if you look at the offensive line, you look at the defensive line, I think the pads have improved on both. I mean, what was your take on line play against Houston? Oh, no, no. I listen, both lines look really good. And I left tackle I was worried about. But, I mean, they didn't get to Brady that line until like the fourth quarter.

So, I mean, I just, listen, I just think this game is good. going to be played between the 20s. I think you're going to see a lot of field goals. That's why I liked points. If I thought these were high-powered offense. Yeah, plus one, though. One and a half. One and a half.

Yeah, this is one I think I'm right. I think the wise guy should listen to me here. And one last thing about this game quickly is whenever you have teams familiar with each other, remember, they just played in the playoffs, I always trust the better coach because he's going to learn more from that recent encounter once again, Belichick. All right, two and two. This is my second favorite pick of the week. First of all, people are all gassed up on the Bears because it was that solo Sunday night TV game.

And so when you're ever you're the only game on TV, everybody's like, oh, the Bears, they led 20-0. They are so limited offensively. It's a college offense with Mitch Tribesky. I get the significantly better quarterback Russell Wilson. By the way, I get three and a half points. It's not easy to win in Denver in September. I'm taking the Seahawks plus three and a half my second favorite bet to the Colts.

What are the wise guys think? Biggest agreement of the week. So your three, two, net agreement. Remember, right here on this pod, I pouted my fist, I said, the announcers are going to say, wow, the Packers don't know what the Bears are doing on an offense

because, remember, they went so vanilla the Bears did in the preseason trying to surprise the Packers. Well, it worked. But once the script ran out, as the new phrase, is going, the Bears did not look good. You are right. And here's my question.

Are the Bears up or down off of last week? Meaning they lost the game, even though it was encouraging. And it had a horrible second half? That's what I'm saying. Isn't this a spot that could be flat? And I know it's Monday night again, but I feel like everyone's feeling like the Bears did so well, but there's no moral victories. If anything, they, if you would have bet the Packers at their low point against the Bears,

you could have got 12 to 1, meaning the Bears were over 90% to win that game, and they didn't win the game. Now, let me ask you another question about Seattle, is all these players they lost that everyone's talking about on defense. Which of them do you really want on your team? Like right now are you thinking, man, I'm a Steelers fan. I really wish they had so-and-so that was on Seattle's defense last year. Well, Michael Bennett, I still think, is a good pass-rusher.

But Richard Sherman was done. Cam Chancellor physically couldn't play. Earl Thomas is only a safety. He's still there. I don't think their defense is, I just think, here's what I think about Seattle. I don't think it's as optimistic a locker room, but I still have an iconic coach, an iconic quarterback, and I still get Bobby Wagner. There's still defensive players, Earl Thomas, I like.

I just think winning in Denver's hard. Well, listen, it's not only hard in Denver. Check this stat out. First two weeks of the season, last 30 years in Denver. So teams going to Denver, either week one or two. Denver in those games is 32 and 3 straight up. Oh, my God. Now think about the logic.

Opponents are not fully in shape yet, so the altitude affects them more. 32 and 3 straight up Denver at home. Seattle had that game won. So this team, and let me ask you a question, where's Russell Wilson 1 to 32 in your rankings right now? 5 or 6. I like him. When's the last time a top 5 or 6 quarterback?

let's say in the last five years where quarterbacks have become more important. When have you had a quarterback that good, not win at least eight games? It just doesn't happen very much. I mean, Drew Breeze has had a few seasons right there. So unless Seattle was historically bad other than Wilson, I'm not just saying bad. I'm saying historically bad. I think Seattle's an eight and eight team. Are the Bears really better than that?

Because with the Bears three and a half here, you're saying they're better. I love Seattle. Let's do a bonus one. So I got three to two agreement. If I did bet another game, Giants Plus 3, listen, if they catch that punt, they got the ball with a couple minutes left. They got a new coach. I got to give them a little break. Dallas really concerned me.

God, offensively, so limited. I think the Giants have significantly better players on both sides. I'd take the Giants plus three against Dallas. If I had a bonus pick, what would the wise guys say? It would lean that way. I've been listening this week. I think you're making a great point about DAC. When quarterbacks are physically limited,

and any quarterback going in the fourth round is going to have some of that, usually if they are successful in year one, the defenses spend the whole offseason looking at the tape and saying, huh, he can't make that throw, he can't make that throw, let's force them to do it, and year two is tougher. Well, we saw that. Now they have a whole other offseason, and I'm not as skeptical, or I'm not as,

optimistic on DAC as I was because I think defenses have figured him out. Last thing, wise guys love the under in this game. Under 43 points or so, both offenses one dimensional. I expect this to be low-scoring giants and cowboys. Exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press. Pregame.com. His name is RJ Bill. Good talking to you, buddy.

Thank you, Colin. Last night, a blown call changed the game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to SportsSlic on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12.

and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smygle and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app. podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clever Taylor the 4th.

And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this guy walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out.

Quarterback on office blue of 42. Hey, rec, my mama want you to wave at her. What? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Cliverts show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Kunky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast.

I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the. biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.