The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: 09/29/2018

Episode Date: September 29, 2018

Colin is off to a 10-5 start in his Blazing 5 picks this season. In this exclusive podcast RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio reviews Colin's week 4 picks and tells him which ones the wise guys in Vegas agree and disagree with. Plus, Colin includes a bonus pick that was not part of his Blazing 5. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

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What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. you just understood.

That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to her. He's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs.

This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, everybody. It's our Saturday morning podcast. Man, have we been on fire? Get to R.J. Bell and first, first we go to our blazing five picks.

That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up. Fire it up. It's Collins, Blaz and Five. All right. Browns and Raiders. I'll take the Raiders minus two and a half to win by more than a field goal. Listen, they're not an awful O and three team.

They've let every game going into the fourth quarter. Derek Carr is completing over 75% of his throws. This is a very competent offense, and they've got good backs. They have not sealed up games. And going out to Miami in that oppressive heat in September and losing to a good dolphin team is nothing to be embarrassed about. Listen, I like Baker Mayfield. Okay, it's been fun.

But the number one overall pick in their first career start, dating back 15 years to 2003 are Owen 10. Starting quarterbacks first start. Number one picks are Owen 10 in their first starts. Oakland is at home. They're the better team. They're not an awful O'N3. I'll take the Raiders to win 2820.

Texans at Colts. I can't believe. I believe Indianapolis isn't favored by more than one point. It's Colts minus one. Listen, Chris Ballard, the GM of the Colts told me in the offseason. He goes, you know, I think our defensive front's a little better than people think. They're tied for fourth most sacks in the NFL. They don't have a superstar, but the Colts are playing very, very sound fundamental football up front.

Again, it's not perfect. They don't have an Aaron Donald. They don't have a Vaughn Miller, but they've been surprisingly good. and the Texans have given up a league high, 33 quarterback hits this season. That may be the worst offensive line in the NFL and the past defense this year for Houston. What's going on? I got a team that I think feels good about themselves. The Colts at home only having to give up a point,

I'm going to take Indianapolis to win this thing comfortably 3326. Seahawks at Cardinals. This is going to be ugly. I mean, turn away. Don't watch. Bad offense. Terrible offensive lines, rebuilding football teams. But Arizona is getting a field goal.

And at home, they've always been sneaky good. Chandler Jones, over the last three years, you know he actually leads the NFL in sacks? He does. Kalee-Max's behind him. Vaughn Miller's behind him. And Seattle struggles to block elite pass rushers. Anytime you have two ugly offenses who are really rebuilding, and I'm going to get a field goal with a home team, I'm going to take it.

This is going to be really ugly. I'm going to take Arizona. Kind of an upset win, 24, 23. Josh Rosen wins. Saints and Giants. Giants historically start slow and end strong. I'm getting three and a half with the New York Giants. Like it?

I love it. Listen, New Orleans is a different team on the road. This is back-to-back roadies. Over the last seven, eight years, even when Drew Brees, they've generally been poor. Forget points just straight up in back-to-back road games. second game. And their defense is last or next to last in points per game allowed, yards per game, and takeaways. This is not a defense playing well. And here's what I know about the Giants.

Saquan Barclay's the first giant with 100 plus scrimid jar to each of his first career games. He's a real weapon. Now, I wouldn't have taken him with my number one pick. I would have taken Sam Donald. But the Giants are going to win this game and the Giants are getting three and a half at home. I love, love this pick, 2827 New York Giants. Ravens at Steelers. Been saying it joy since the preseason. Baltimore is the best team in the NFL that nobody's paying attention to,

but they're not flashy. They're not the Rams. They're not the Chiefs. They're not the Steelers. They don't have Brady. They're really good. But they drafted two tight ends and they went and acquired three new wide receivers.

And my thing was, just wait until Thanksgiving. This is going to be a Super Bowl-level team. But they're not flashy. They're kind of rebuilding their offensive parts. but defensively, they're top five in points, yards, passing yards, yards allowed per play. That's a big Vegas staff. Baltimore's always good defensively. They're incredibly sound there again this year.

By the way, though, sneaky good offensively. Here's an amazing number. Ravens have scored a touchdown on all 12 of the red zone drives, 12 for 12. They're better offensively than you think. Sunday night football. Baltimore goes into Pittsburgh and beats the Steelers 27, 23. Those are my blazing five picks. And with that, we welcome in R.J. Bell, pregame.com, the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press.

He is now hosting the first ever daily radio show on a major national network focused on sports betting 6 to 7 Eastern, 3 to 4 Pacific on Fox Sports Radio, the founder of pregame.com. All right, you're ready to go? Absolutely. Hey, 6 and 0 last week. What do you think? It's pretty darn good. Okay, here we go. Indianapolis a little more dink and dunk under Frank Reich. And I think Andrew Luck's arm has a plan in this. But here's what I like. They're turning third downs to first downs.

And their defensive line is better than I think most of his thought. I'm going to take Indianapolis home. Colts at home minus one. What do the wise guys think? Got agreement here. This is probably my second favorite pick of the week. And let me give a little tip to the listeners. If you listen to Colin daily, this is what you.

you do. When he tells you he knows somebody in an organization, and then weeks later, he tells you something about that organization, but doesn't attribute it, trust he has good information. So I think you know the Colts pretty well. I do. Let me ask you this question. I'm concerned about one thing. They had a Hail Mary situation last week. 60-some yards. They did not let Andrew Luck throw the past. Right, right. What do you think of that? My take is you ask your quarterback to throw that twice a year. is that they're not going to risk at this point letting Andrew Luck use make that throw. He can make a throw. But their feeling is, listen, we're coming off a debilitating injury.

Even Frank Wright's game plans have mostly been mid to underneath throws. This is a work in process. They're not going to have him make the throw and potentially tweak that arm. I think in eight weeks they may keep him in for that. So that's why I didn't overreact to it. And I agree with you. They haven't gone down field as much. but still QBR, Andrew Luck number 12.

And the Colts right now advanced metrics on defense about the 12th best defense. This team isn't just Andrew Luck at this point. And look at the Colts early in the year. They were 90% to win based on ESPN projections in game against the Bengals in week one. And they were 70% to win against the Eagles in week two or last week. So really it was a situation where the Colts could, easily be 3 and 0. And how different would this line be? And as we talked about last week with Watson, boy, if you just take look at last year, Watson looked great. You look at this year,

Watson looks below average. We're getting to the point where it's about the same number of games, each of these in each set of games. So how do we know which one is true? Lastly, is Houston extra motivated here? Or are they a team in turmoil? It feels like this season is almost already lost when it comes to the playoffs. I'm not sure you get full focus. I think there might be distraction agreement on the Colts. Get back to RJ in a second. 23 and Me is a DNA testing service

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Let's get back to RJ. My favorite bet of the week, and I made it Tuesday, and I've never done this before, I think if you look at what the Gruden and the Raiders have done, this is not man overboard. Okay, winning in Miami where it's 100 degrees in September is rough. Winning in Denver. It's one of the hardest places, as you pointed out, to win in the league on the road in September. All they have to do is win by a field goal. Oakland minus two and a half seems like it's stealing money.

The Browns have also gotten a ton of turnover break so far this year. That stuff doesn't last. I think Oakland wins by a touchdown or more. What do the wise guys think? Well, biggest agreement of the week. Yeah. And listen, here's what I love. the most. You locked in the two and a half early in the week. I mean, you are learning at this point.

Let's quickly go through these games with the Raiders. They were leading at half time against the Rams. Rams clearly best team in the NFL. It's not even close. But they got beat pretty bad. In Denver, like you said, at altitude, boy, is it tough. Only three teams in the last 30 years have won in Denver the first two weeks of the year. Three teams in 30 years and they were 92% to win late in that game. loss. They were 92% the same number to win late in the game against Miami. The Raiders were 10 a.m. start, 90 degrees on the field,

10 a.m. Pacific, and they had the black uniforms on. So this Raiders team is much better than they seem. Flipside, the Browns, plus nine on turnovers. No team in the league is better than plus four. And we all know, turnovers have a significant element of

luck. Last year, by the way, the Browns were historically bad, minus 28. So they suffered last year for it. Now they've been lucky. You've got Baker-Mayfield-Mania. You're calling them the money clip maker. I'm saying fade them to make the money this week. Raiders, we love it. Okay, 2-0 so far with the wise guys. Seattle and Arizona is plus three. Listen, these are bad offensive lines. I'll take the one at home. These are, you know, this is my risky bet, but I kind of feel like this, is that Josh Rosen, it's his team going forward. I think everybody knew it was his team.

everybody. Coaches, Sam Bradford, and I feel like there's a, okay, let's go. They've been all kind of waiting. Now, I don't think they're going to be special, but I'm going to take the three at home. I just don't trust Seattle's offense and that line on the road. What are the wise guys think?

Okay, if you ask 20 professional batters, and I mean guys that make a living from this, but aren't the best of the best, right? They're making their rent. You're going to get agreement. I'm disagreeing with you here. because this is an old school wise guy play, and I just think it's wrong.

Let me just make the case very narrowly. How bad, there's value here. You get it, right? It's like Seattle's not great on the road, and Arizona is, but consider this. Mike Lombardi, he's on our show every Tuesday. He talks about you add up a team's completions and the rushes, because the theory is that's a positive play.

If you rush the ball, you're going to get some yards. If you complete the pass, you're going to get some yards. Now you compare it to how many you accomplished on offense versus how many you give up on defense. The second worst team in the NFL at that, if you look at that margin, is Cincinnati. They're averaging giving up 12 more of those completions plus rushes than they gain.

The worst team is Arizona. They're minus 24. So think about that. Number 31 is minus 12. The other team, number 32, is minus 24. Arizona is so bad. And if you look at this offense, we can just give you stat after stat. You know how many points they've scored this year, Arizona, in the second quarter, zero.

In the third quarter, zero. They haven't scored in three games in the second or third quarter. In the fourth, they've scored six. They've only scored scripted early. Now you've got a rookie quarterback. Do we really think Rosen would be starting right now if Bradford had done anything? So this is subjective. You're going to get some sharps that agree with you, disagreement.

Here's a bet I like. Giants at home getting three and a half against the Saints. Listen, New Orleans defenses is giving up over 400 yards a game. And I kind of feel when I watch the Giants, if you don't have a world-class pass rush, and Eli showed it last weekend, struggled against Jacksonville. But if he doesn't face a world-class pass rush, and he has time, I got Barclay, I got Odell, I like their tight end. I kind of think when you give Eli some comfort, it's a pretty darn good football team. And I don't trust the Saints after that wild exhausting shootout went

over Atlanta. I'm going to take the three and a half of the Giants. What are the wise guys think? Yeah, I think you're making a good point about Eli is Shermer tweak the offensive scheme, got Eli moving a little bit and trying to get to better throw positions. And he looked a lot better, obviously, against Houston. I got to give you credit on this one. Call you. You You got agreement here. I got to give you credit. I like this game more because you caused me to look deeper at it. And here's what I uncovered.

Check the Saints, right? So they lose to the bucks. It was a nine-point favorite week one. Yeah. So there's a psychology of a big upset no one expected. That's not a good thing. Then they had a must-win game against the Browns, and it was a war. And they were lucky to win that game.

I think about now psychologically, physically. Now you go to Atlanta and have a track meet and barely win that. game. Now the Saints are, they went to Atlanta, back home, now all the way up to New York City. Here's what I uncovered. World premiere of this. No one else has it. Saints, the Saints themselves, playing in the second of back-to-back road games since 2012, one in eight straight up, losing by 11 points per game. Wow, that's what Drew Breeze. Two and, yeah, since 2012, two and seven against the spread, and they've lost against the spread by over a TD per game in net. And why is it Saints different? Because you're not a good road team to start with. And traveling

from Louisiana when you've got two trips is often tougher than in the Northeast where you're traveling shorter. So to me, especially at the three and a half, I love the Giants. Back to the picks in a second. Robin Hood is an investing app. And it lets you buy and sell stocks, options, cryptos, all commission free. They strive to make financial services work for everybody not just the wealthy. Other brokerages charge up to $10 for every trade.

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That's Colin, C-O-L-N dot robinhood.com. All right, back to the picks. Okay, so I have three-and-one agreements. So it's another winning week with the wise guys. Here's a game. I think Baltimore's underrated. They're 12 for 12 in the red zone touchdowns. They drafted two tight ends and they acquired three receivers.

They have five new pieces for Flacco. And I've been saying this all year. Don't judge the Ravens today. Let's get to Thanksgiving. They now have really nice offensive weapons. And I think you saw it last week. I love, I think Baltimore right now is a better team than Pittsburgh. And I get three points.

And frankly, I don't know if Pittsburgh defensively matches up with their tight ends or their receivers. I'm going to take the Ravens and the field goal in a good rivalry game. What do the wise guys think? Now, this is classic sharp, but we got agreement here. The reason it's classic is this game, this matchup has been so known for close games. This is amazing. Go back 26 games in this matchup. That's Christmas Eve 2006. About 12 years ago. 26 games. They each have won 13. Okay. They each have covered 12. with two pushes. So 13 and 13 straight up, 12, 12 and 2 against the spread. Here's the points scored. Ravens 546, Steelers 536. 10 points off in 26 games. That tells me take points whenever you can get them

in this rivalry. I think that's true. And I think even more so this year, here's why. The Steelers are on pace to set or commit the most penalties in NFL history. If they continue the way you had the stat first three weeks, if you extrapolate out to the year, it'd be the most any team has ever had. The Ravens super disciplined when it comes to execution. They've scored every time they've entered the red zone. In the second half of this year, in the second half of the games, they've only allowed nine total points. So they're making adjustments at halftime. The Steelers are the sloppiest team. So to me, if I'm getting points with a very disciplined team against a sloppy team, I'm taking the points agreement.

Four to one agreement with the wise guys. Okay, here's the game for me that I did not bet, but we put it every week now. We have a bonus pick, and this is the game that I almost pulled the trigger on, but in the end, I'm just going to leave it to you. I would have taken Denver plus five against Kansas City. Again, we are so immersed and so fascinated with Patrick Mahomes,

we're not noticing Kansas City's defense gives up a lot of yards and a lot of gash plays. Denver at home is tough. rivalry game. Case Keenham can win games in this. League 1-13 last year. I would take it was the last one I moved out and I took Arizona instead. So Denver plus five against Kansas City. I have them winning outright. Upset of the week. What are the wise guys think? Boy, I tell you, this one would be split too. You probably are going to get agreement,

but I disagree with it. Let me give you two quick stats here. We all know Mahomes has had a good start. If you look at DVOA and advanced metric, last 30 years, first three games of the year. So now you have 900 teams, right? Because every year, every team has a chance to be on this list. 30 years, 30 plus teams a year. Casey has the six best start offensively in all that time. Wow.

This isn't just good. This isn't just best this year. This is one of the six best in three decades. Here's the stat, though. If you do agree with calling, guys, maybe look at Denver on the money line. because the last 33 games Kansas City has played on the road, the point spread has never mattered. That's weird.

That means either the favorite wins the game by over the spread or the underdog wins the game outright. 33 straight games. And there's a little logic to it. Andy Reid is such a good schemer schematically. When he cracks the code, when he's got something, he's going to beat that other team. and when he doesn't have something, then they're going to get beat pretty bad.

So, boy, 33 straight without the spread mattering Kansas City Road games. Wow. So that was fun. RJ Bell now hosting the first ever daily radio show on a major national network on focus on sports betting. Six to seven Eastern every day. That's three to four Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. At RJ in Vegas. This is fun.

We are off to a delicious start. The babies are eating at my house. is eating at my house. We're all, we're just living big. We're just firework shows every weekend. So you're getting the appetizers. Right back in the day it was like, I don't know if we can afford the appetizer. Now, yeah. We're buying cars.

We're moving a new home. RJ, good talking to you. Thank you. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. In every episode, we're

cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slical Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite on humor me with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Oden, to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends

on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Cliver Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous, for re. We're in the middle of a game.

This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue 42. Hey, rep, my mama want you to wave at her. What? Hey, Ms. Parker.

Listen to the Clifford show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was finally. You just understood. That's how personal it got.

Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come until he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.