The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: 10/27/2018

Episode Date: October 27, 2018

Coming off an impressive 4-1 week Colin gives his Blazing 5 picks to RJ Bell of pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio and RJ tells him which ones the wise guys in Vegas agree and disagree with. Plus, Colin reveals two bonus picks that were not included in his Blazing 5 Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Hi, everybody. Welcome to our Saturday morning podcast. Very exciting time. Let's not waste it. Here's my Blazing Fod. That's a hot one. Let's Blaze it up. Fire it up.

It's Collins Blazing Fod. Jets and Bears. All right, the Bears minus seven at home. That line maybe even going to seven and a half and eight. And I like Chicago here. First of all, the Jets have a crisis at wide receiver. Multiple injuries. Guys out for the year.

They also lost a running back. This is the time of the year that you have to watch the IR. The Jets are massively depleted at wide receiver. And the Bears defense is not in a great. mood because they've had a couple of rough weekends. The Bears defense, though, still ranked second in takeaways, the Jets' offense, third in giveaways. And by the way, Mitch Trubisky in his last three games, he and

Matt Nagy got things working out. Eleven touchdowns, three picks. Chicago wins. I think they win convincingly 30 to 20. Seahawks and Lions. Seattle's the better team and they get a field goal. Like it. I love it. Listen, Again, in NFL seasons, you can't look at a team in September and say, this is what they are. We know that with the Patriots. Seattle, in the last four games, they came into this year.

They didn't know what they were. They have righted the ship. They are now a mostly conservative run-first, power running game offense who doesn't turn the ball over. In fact, in their last four games, three-in-one, 26 points a game, defense is tightened up, and they're plus seven turnover differential. That's the best turnover differential in the NFL since week three. And Pete Carroll's a defensive coach. He always elevates his personnel.

Right now, they're that third-ranked scoring defense. I get the better team and I get points. This is one of the easy ones. Seattle wins it 27-23. Buccaneers at Bengals. Listen, Cincinnati's at home, and they only have to give up four and a half points. I like Cincinnati. Listen, Andy Dalton shrinks on Monday night football.

He shrinks on Sunday night football. He shrinks against the Steelers. But Andy Dalton, home against the bad defense, he fools us every time. He fools us every time. And Tampa Bay's defense is at atrocious. If you look at opposing quarterbacks this year against the Buccaneers' defense, they're last in everything. They give up the most passing yards, the most passing touchdowns.

They don't pick the ball off. The average pass rating is 126. And here's the other thing. Andy Dalton at home will be comfortable. He's really actually a B to a B plus quarterback when he's comfortable. James Winston, Joy would have bailed on him. I'm close to bail on him. Here's the thing about James Winston.

He turns the ball over like a lot every week. There's a couple things about James Winston. Yeah, that is a big thing. Yeah. Okay, 32, 24, swallow the points. All take the Bengals at home to win in cover. 49ers at Cardinals. I don't want to watch this game.

I just want to bet this game. It's a worst watch all weekend. I'm going to take the 49ers. It's a pick-up, so I just have to pick the winner. In that locker room right now, that team believes in Kyle Shanahan. I'll tell you the story with San Francisco this year. That organization has done such a good job with their offensive line.

All they need is Garoppolo, another draft. Right now, the Cardinals' offense does nothing well. They are last in everything. Yards rushing, big play. third down, they're the pits. But actually the 49ers right now are running the heck out of the ball. They have the second rank rushing offense

this season, almost 140 yards a game. And again, I believe that in that locker room, even with CJ Befford, there is optimism in that locker room. It kind of feels like in Arizona season's done. I'm going to take the Niners to go on the road

and beat Arizona 2623. Packers and Rams I mean, come on folks. Aaron Rogers getting nine and a half points off a buy. I mean, even Mike McCarthy, who a lot of people, you know, I always hear you, Mike McCarthy's no good. Do you know what Mike McCarthy is off a buy?

He's like Andy Reed. He's nine and three. The good coaches in this league, you give him an extra week, Andy Reed, Sean Peyton, Belichick, Mike McCarthy, he's nine and three off buys. And by the way, three of the last four Ram games have been decided by seven or less. they don't have a consistent pass rush on the outside. Aaron can move away left or right from an interior rush. And here's the air thing.

In Los Angeles, it's a great place to live, but it's not the most intimidating home crowd. You know, people are sipping their mitis, getting a sun tan. It's not like playing at Green Bay or at Pittsburgh or at Philly or at Frogsboro. It's a mild, it's a mild home field advantage. And Aaron Rogers since week five yards, passing yards. yards of play. He's top three in the league. Off a by. This is too many points. I think the Rams win. I'm not going to give Aaron Rogers nine and a half points. It's no way. 3027 in what I think will also be a wildly entertaining game. That's our Blazing Five.

All right. Here we go. Last week, the Blazing Five. We got the Giants to cover late for us on Monday night was four and one. And we got Cam Newton. to save us late in Philadelphia. And we bring in RJ Bell, pregame.com. Pregame is the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press. RJ is the founder of pregame.com and host the first ever national network radio show covering sports betting, 6 to 7 Eastern every day, 3 to 4 Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. All right, I'm going to start with this game, is the Jets have a crisis at wide receiver, and they just lost a running back for the season.

and it's an offense that's got issues to begin with, I think the Jets, you have to lower expectations, the Bears off two frustrating losses, I'm going to take the Bears minus seven, seven and a half. What are the wise guys think? Yeah, the earlier in the week, Colin Seven, up past that now. Disagreement here. Now, I agree with you, if you're ever going to lay a lot of lumber with the Bears,

this looks like one of the spots. but it is the biggest favorite for Chicago since 2013. Wow. So, yeah, they're saying this is a great spot for them. And you are right. When they played Miami a couple weeks ago, Bears were in control that game. Yes, they were.

They wilted. It was 80 plus degrees in the fourth quarter. The whole Miami and the other team has the dark jerseys kind of thing going on. I also like the fact Chibisky's been running the ball. First four games. of the year, Tribisky average four carries per game. Last two weeks, 14 rushes, 128 yards. No, it's like Dak. They've figured out that's a real component to the Bears' offense. And I don't think it's something that you can do long, long term, because you tend to get hurt.

But if you're laying over a touchdown with a team that struggles on offense, the Bears have not converted a third and 10 all season. Think about that a second. It's the NFL, 2018. Third and 10, they can't get a first down. Third 11, 12, whatever. They can't get a first down. So I agree with you. Bad spot for the Jets. But I think the Jets are still playing hard for their coach. And they're going to protect Darnold. And I think getting over a touchdown is the right side here. So disagreement on you who don't typically lay the lumber, you're laying it on the jet or bears. I disagree. Okay. C-Ox plus three at the Lions. Listen, Detroit's playing really hard after that debacle on Monday Night Football to start the year.

But Seattle's offense, I think they've righted the ship in the last month. And they've played some good teams like the Rams. I think they've righted it. I'm going to, I think I get a better team. I think I get a better coach and a better quarterback. I'm going to take the field goal in Seattle at Detroit. What are the wise guys think? Love it.

Love it. Agreement. And I think this is one of those matchup handicaps. Seattle rushing the ball last three games. They made a commitment to run the ball, 155 yards rushing 190, 171 last three games. Detroit is the worst in the NFL defending the run. 5.3 yards per rush. They yield.

Now, one wild card. I like his name, Snacks Harrison. Yes. Coming over from the Giants. I'm just not sure how quickly you can integrate him. but I would keep an eye on Detroit improving against a run as the season progresses. You know, I look at this Lions team, and I think the narrative of, oh, look, this guy, another Belichick disciple that can't really be a head coach.

Oh, the team is mad at his discipline. Wow, they've been playing some good game since. But if you get into the data, DVOA is an advanced metric, they have Seattle is the 10th best team in the NFL. The Lions is the 28th best team. in the NFL. That means we're getting three, which is the typical home field with the much better team, and we have a matchup edge agreement on Seattle. All right, my favorite bet of the week. I like the Bengals at home minus four and a half. Here's why. First of all, Andy Dalton shrinks in big games, but you get him at home and you get him comfortable and Tampa Bay's defense is atrocious.

This is where he shines. This is where we fall in love with and get fooled by Andy Dalton. They were humiliated on national TV. They just shrink on Sunday night football. They shrink on Monday. They shrink against the Steelers. I love this line since E-Minus 4.5. I think they win by a touchdown or more. What are the wise guys think?

This is a sharp handicap you just gave agreement. And here's why it's sharp. The pros have been betting against the Bengals like crazy. Most overrated team in the NFL, we thought, last couple weeks. but now you said it. They just got embarrassed again. They've lost multiple games, including against the Steelers. And now it's like it's time to bounce back.

And oh, the lights aren't so bright. And because they just got embarrassed, the line's only four and a half. Now, Homefield's three. So now we're saying since he's only a smidge better than the Bucks, and I think that's certainly true, considering also the Bucks are banged up on defense. Best defender McCoy out. also key linebacker is out. And if you actually look at the bucks on the road, last 13 games, two and 11 straight up,

Bengals have a sneaky good home field advantage. One caveat, just to, I don't want you to feel too good. Something to worry about here. Bengals with Eifford, all right? First four games, 32 points a game. They're tight end. Last three games, 17 points a game. Now that's too drastic.

just to be the one guy. But Eifford being out is key. Even so, agreement bangles. All right, get to more picks. And I'm going to give you two bonus picks this weekend. One of my Baker-Mayfield bonus pick, because I'm not going to touch that game, but I have a feeling on it. If there's one thing I know, it's that you can never count out an underdog, no matter how big the odds. Some people surprise you. That's the reason I like Simply Save Home Security. It's an amazing system. They've won all sorts of awards, but 10 years ago, they were an underdog. Back then, if you wanted a security system, you had to go through these huge companies. expensive long-term contracts, hidden fees for systems that were completely outdated. That all changed when a young electrical engineer started designing SimpliSafe's first security

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I like this game and nobody wants to watch it. I don't even think the coaches want to watch it. Niners at the Cardinals. But here's the difference. here's the difference. We are only a couple of weeks removed from the Niners going to Green Bay and out playing the Packers.

Okay, so I don't think Arizona does anything well. The 49ers believe in their coach and they run the football. I'm surprised it to pick them. I'll take the Niners in the Pickham. What do the wise guys think? Boy, this is another sharp play agreement. And here's why it's sharp.

The average fan, the recreational batter, we call him Joe or Freddie Fannie Pack. He looked and said, wait a minute, Arizona just beat San Francisco in San Fran. But if you look at that game, Arizona was plus five in turnovers. And that is a lot of luck. And it's so hard to overcome that if your minus five like San Fran. But they actually, the 49ers had double the yardage in that game. So on one hand, San Fran dominated.

On the other hand, the casual fan looked and said, Arizona, One on the road. Now they're home, and it's just pick them. And this is so, or actually 49ers becoming the favorite in some spots by one. And it actually makes the case how unusual this line is. The 49ers are only the second one in six team to be a road favorite in the last 30 years. So, yeah, Arizona's historically bad. 49ers probably better than their record.

though I'll tell you this, Colin, another concern. 49ers without Jimmy G. Last 30 games, they're 2 and 28. Yeah, I don't think this is going to be pretty. Yes. And the reason I like him is because of the team they're playing. Oh, I agree. Yeah, this is basically I just like one lousy team better than the other.

And last thing, you got Shanahan, which there's long-term optimism about on one side. You got Wilkes where there's not, and they're changing OCs, and you got Brown. line left which as the O.C. Now, which is a new thing for him. So to me, that's another negative for the Cardinals. Agreement, 49ers. So three and one agreement. Here's the last one. And this is an easy one.

Aaron Rogers, off a buy, gets nine and a half. And you'll give the numbers. I don't have them. But Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rogers off a buy, again, this is not a weather situation, warm weather going to cold. It's a cold weather team going to perfect conditions. It'll be 75 degrees. I can't believe the number. I'm going to take Green Bay.

I don't know if they win, but nine and a half is just too big of a number. I agree with you. And you mentioned I'm not sure they're going to win. Well, we always like to say the back doors open where you have a big underdog. They're losing by 14 late touchdown. Who better would you want in a potential backdoor cover than Aaron Rogers, right? You mentioned the home field advantage for the Rams is not as good as you might think. No, not really.

And Green Bay has so many fans across the country. We expect nearly half the crowd to be Green Bay. Oh, that's a great. Oh, now I love this. Yeah. And you think about this. Rams had three straight road games, a way, way, away, now they're home. You might think, well, they're finally back.

Yeah, but they got the mail piled up. They've got to take the kid to school where they haven't been able to because they've been on the road. All those kind of life commitments that even these NFL millionaires have that early week back after three weeks on the road. And I know they come back every week, but still. It's just so busy. They finally take a breath, another negative. And oh, by the way, let's talk history. Biggest underdog in Aaron Rogers' career.

Oh, of course. Yeah, it has to be. And last thing, Green Bay plays at New England next week. So you could say if they had an easy game next week, okay, you know, we're going to not win this one. Let's not worry about it. But if they'd lose this game and they'd lose at New England next week, they'll be halfway through the season and have below.

500 record. Green Bay has to try to win this game agreement on the Packers. Two more picks, including Baker Mayfield and the Browns against the Steelers, but first, Robin Hood is an investing app. Robin Hood. Let's you buy and sell stocks, cryptos, all commission free, E, TFS options. They strive to make financial services work for everybody, not just the wealthy. Okay. The bottom line is there's no cost, no commission fee. Other brokerages will charge you up to $10 every trade, but Robin Hood doesn't charge commission fees, trade stocks keeps all your profits. They're yours, okay? Easy to understand charts, easy to understand market data. Place a trade in just four taps on your smartphone. Okay,

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How easy is that? C-O-L-I-N. Colin dot Robinhood.com. All right, here we go. Two more picks. This is the one that I was going to put in Blazing Fathers. There's one every week that doesn't make the cut, but I'm close. Ravens minus two at the Panthers.

Carolina played a great fourth quarter, but let's not forget they struggled for three. I think Baltimore is still one of the top five teams in the league, and I think they can win by a field goal on the road. That game should have gone to overtime last week against the Saints. Carolina is sneaky good at home, but I would take Ravens minus two if this was in the Blazing Five. What would the wise guys say? Colin, you got a lot of props. This is a horrible handicap.

Oh, my gosh. Now think about this. If this line, if this game were in Baltimore, You do the six-point flip. We always talk about it. The Ravens would be eight and a half. Can you imagine the Ravens eight and a half over the Panthers? Oh, good call.

Yeah. I get your instincts, which is Carolina is a little overrated by the public, but the marketplace is saying, oh, look how much better the Ravens are. But Carolina at home, they've won eight straight, and they're 26 and six straight up at home. Ravens on the road, six and 11, their last 17. and oh, by the way, if you look at Carolina at home in those three games this year, the three and oh, they've rushed for nearly 500 yards. This is a really good home team that just has to win against a below average road team. Love the Panthers.

Hate the Ravens. And it's just, I just want to throw this out there because Baker Mayfield is interesting. The Browns are getting eight, eight and a half, whatever it is. I would, I never consider this for Blazing five, but I think it's funny. R.J. Bell, founder of pregame.com. I think it's funny for the listeners. I would say this. What it tells me is a couple of weeks ago,

the Browns were a one-point dog to the Chargers, and then Vegas watched that, and then watch them struggle for three quarters against Tampa, and Vegas is out on the Browns. That's what this line tells me. These teams played to overtime a month ago, and I think Vegas got a look at Baker-Mayfield against a pass rush and said, we're out.

Because I see Browns plus eight, eight-and-a-half. I would take Cleveland here, But I'm really interested to what the wise guys in Vegas thinks. Now, listen, nine times out of ten, taking over a touchdown is going to be the right side. Yeah. We disagree here, and I'll give you two quick reasons. This is real simple. The Browns were plus five in turnovers against the Steelers in week one.

Yes. Last three decades in the NFL, teams that are plus five are 158, six, and one, right? So the one is Cleveland. So think 158 and six if you're plus five. but Cleveland couldn't win. So that means the Steelers really dominated the game. And then you say it better than anyone, calling Mike Tomlin. It's about emotion.

Well, Steelers want revenge for the tie, and they're off a buy. So I think we've got a motivated Pittsburgh team that's clearly better. Yeah, you know, that's what I've been saying about Baker. He got four turnovers against Tampa, and they had 120 yards through three quarters. And people think I'm banging on, but Sam Darnold's got nothing to work with, playing great defenses and he's thrown for a lot of touchdowns. I don't see it with Baker. I don't see him as a number one pick and I just don't see it with this offense.

There's too much dysfunction. Okay, RJ Bell, first ever national radio show covering sports betting. Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 Eastern, 3 to 4 Pacific, Fox Sports Radio. Good talking to you. Thank you. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened.

happen. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? this is Clifford Taylor the 4th. And on my podcast, The Clivert Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game.

This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue 42. Hey, Brett, my mama want you to wave at her. What? Where's she at?

Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments.

If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis'clock, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball.

basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.