The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: 11/10/2018

Episode Date: November 10, 2018

Coming off a 4-1 week Colin gives his Blazing 5 picks to RJ Bell of pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio and RJ tells him which ones the wise guys in Vegas agree and disagree with. Plus, Colin reveals a bonus pick that was not included in his original Blazing 5. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise,

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Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue with 42. Hey, Wreck, my mama want you to weigh better. What? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. you just understood.

That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to her. He's like, you know, I love you, dog.

You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, everybody,

welcome in to our Saturday morning podcast. I'll get to RJ Bell in a second. All sorts of stuff today. But let's start. This will be fun. I really enjoyed doing this. I hope you enjoyed as much as I enjoy doing it. Let's start with my Blazing Five.

That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up. Fire it up. It's Collins, blazing fire. Saints and Bengals. Listen, how many big games in a row of the Saints played? I get Cincinnati at home plus five and a half. I'm going to take the Bengals here.

Listen, I don't love Andy Dalton in big games. I don't love Andy Dalton on the road. But at home this year, nine TDs, one pick. You get games where he's comfortable. Andy Dalton's fine. By the way, the Bengals have the NFL's, believe it or not, number one red zone offense. 77% of the time they get in there to get a touchdown.

The Saints Red Zone defense is the pits. I think too many big games in a row. I'm betting the number, not the teams. I'll take Cincinnati in an upset. Take the points 28, 27. Patriots at Titans. Listen, we keep waiting for New England to be let down. They have been great for six weeks straight.

Why wouldn't they be great minus six and a half in Tennessee? Tennessee can't score. Tennessee averages 16.8 points a game. And even when they win against Dallas, it's ugly. Now I think Marcus Moriota situationally against Belichick's defense. Aaron Rogers had trouble against Belichick's defense. And in the last six weeks, the Patriots are number one in everything. Points, takeaways, wins, point differential.

The Patriots have scored 30 in five of their last six games. I do think Tennessee's run defense is excellent, but I'll swallow the points, the Patriots 31 21 21. Jaguars at Colts. Indy minus three and a half. Okay. I'm betting the locker room. I love currently the Colts locker room. Optimism.

Finally healthy. Winning Street. Andrew Lux on fire. Hasn't been sacked in three weeks. I hate the Jaguars locker room. Four consecutive games they've lost. They even lost in London. Players calling out coaches.

The Colts have allowed just 10 sacks this year, second fewest in the league, and luck hasn't been sacked in any of the last three games. He has the most touchdown passes, not Patrick Mahom since week four. Indianapolis wins 30 to 20. Seahawks at Rats. Like it? I love it. Seattle gets 10?

How many times does Russell Wilson lose by 10? First of all, the Rams home field advantage is negligible. Second of all, the Rams have been covering the spread in recent weeks. They're winning, but they're not blowing people out, okay? Here's another thing with the Rams. They've got the Chiefs coming up. The biggest game, most exciting game of the NFL season. They come off the Saints.

It's a sandwich game. They got the Chiefs coming up, and here they're a 10-point home favored over the Seahawks. They will be flogs. The Rams only have one win of 10 plus points in their last six games, and Russell Wilson's been on fire for a month. Seattle covers, but the Rams win only 29, 24. Cowboys at Eagles. I don't predict blowouts much, but I'll take Philadelphia minus six and a half,

and I think they're going to hammer Dallas. At home, Philly, off a by Philly, playing well, Philly. Carson Wentz, now that he's healthy, they're giving him more in the offense. He's got his mobility back. He's got his zip on the ball back. Philadelphia is about ready to go on a row. Come on, Dallas is averaging a little over 300 yards of offense a game. They've scored 20 or fewer points in six of their eight games, and now it's a short week. No Sean Lee losing record on the rested hot Carson Wentz-led Eagles. 2817, Philly wins, dominates and easily covers.

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RJ has got a daily show for an hour on Fox Sports Radio. Only guy doing a sports gambling show on a national radio network, Fox Sports Radio. All right. So I was four and one last week. And let's start with this one, RJ. Now, the Saints have had a series of big games at Baltimore, Vikings Revenge Game, at the Rams.

And now they go to the Bengals off a buy, a very, very rested team. Andy Dalton's having a pretty nice year. And this number's just too big. I'm going to take the Bengals and Andy Dalton over the Red Hot Saints at five and a half, regardless of who wins, what are the wise guys think? Well, first, someone at Fox made a bet.

They said how long before Colin mentions his four and one? And it was under two and a half seconds. So you actually, it went under. But you do have agreement here. I don't like it, right? I'm going to say that right away. But almost all of the Sharps do. Let's explain why I think you like it and why the Sharps do.

Saints are probably overrated. They're good, for sure. But you've got them number one, right, this week? I've had him number one for two weeks, yeah. Okay. And ESPN has them number one. We've got them number four. So very good team, but let's not forget.

That was a coin flip against the Ravens. They won. And then against Minnesota, they were outgained by 150 yards. They won the game, but it was really about turnover. So let's say Saints are really good, but maybe not as good as they see. Right. This is their fifth road game in their last seven. Seven games.

And against good teams. too. Not just roadies, but big TV games, big spots. Oh, and then the Rams was a track meet last week, right at home, but that was a tiring game. Now they're back on the road playing a rare one o'clock Eastern start for the Saints. So I get all of the situational edges for Cincinnati. Thing that worries me, though, since he's a little banged up at linebacker. Yeah, which against the double-headed running back of the Saints, really problematic. Also, though the Bengals are off a buy, they've lost three or four straight up and against the spread off

a buy. So Marvin Lewis doesn't seem to use that time wisely. A.J. Green is out. Now, top 10 receiver in the NFL, but especially important to the Bengals because Eiffords out too. So who's the playmakers? Right? But here's the key, key.

Last time the Bengals played, they did not cover against Tampa Bay. They were three and a half. They won by three. Now, they gave up the Bengals 576 yards. First, of that's a problem, right, obviously. But this is even bigger. In the game, the Bengals were plus four in turnover margin, meaning they got the ball four additional times. In the NFL, last 22 times that happened, the team plus four, the Bengals in this case, covered the spread 22 straight. The

Bengals didn't. So when you get something that you usually cover 22 straight and you don't, it's a sign that score was really deceiving because the Bengals benefited so much from turnovers. I think this is a team that's a lot worse the Bengals than people think. So RJ says no, but the wise guys say agreement. You know, I don't like big numbers, and this is, I'm betting a number here. Patriots minus six and

a half of the Titans. If it was seven, I would pass. But Tennessee really struggles, really struggles to score. You've got pupil, Vable, against mentor Belichick. New England's now

as healthy as they've been all year. And this Tennessee team short week. Big win over the Cowboys, feeling great about themselves, and I think they pull back a little. I'll take the Patriots minus six and a half. What do the wise guys think? Disagreement here. Now,

listen, remember, when I'm forced to give a disagreement or agreement, that means if I'm 50 and a half percent, I'm going to go that way. I would not bet against the Patriots. Let's start there. Okay. Just, they just, over the long run, there's 60 percent against the spread

like 15 years. No other team above 55. So let's get that straight. Here's something, Colin, I want to get your thoughts on, because this blew my mind. Patriots have been renowned to be an amazing road favorite, especially a bigger road favorite. So let's say six points or more

like this game. They've lost straight up two of the last three times. They've been six points or more favorites on the road. In the prior 39 games before that, they only lost twice. So two of 39,

as a big road favor, and now two of three. Could be, you know, aberration. It could be small sample size or maybe something is fundamentally changing. Also, what we know is we did some research at the website, this old pupil thing with, you know, oh, Belichick knows the way they're going to play and all that. Actually, if you look at every game Belichick's played against a former Pat's assistant, he's just one game above 500 against the spread.

So, yeah, it's right around break-even, but it's not exceptionally good. I don't like too many points. We're going to give you a slight disagreement. Okay, so one-on-one with the pros. A Jags at Colts. First of all, I'm a huge Andrew Luck fan. They're finally healthy. Darius Leonard may win defensive rookie of the year.

Andrew Luck finally has an offensive line. Boy, their left guard, Quentin Nelson, their center, Kelly, pro-bow-level players right now. And I think the Jags are in disarray. I think they're in disarray in the locker room. We had another situation this week where Doug Marone went to the mic, and apparently a player told the press, I'm not playing. And Maron's like, I didn't know that. I think I have optimistic locker room and pessimistic locker room and a significantly better quarterback.

I'll swallow the three with the Colts. What are the wise guys say? Well, you just said it. It's all about the three here. It's too much. Disagreement. Wow. Now, think about this, Colin.

Homefield and the NFL is three, right? We know that. So this is saying the Colts and the Jags. are even teams. Now, does that, and you're saying because you're betting the coach that they're clearly a better team. Now, do you feel like that's the case? No, I feel like they have a significantly better locker room, spirit, quarterback,

and right now coach. But I don't think the roster, Jacksonville's got a better roster. All right. So that brings up a great conversation, which is, do you want to bet NFL teams that are surging or do you want to bet NFL teams that are drawing? That's what I'm betting. I'm betting surging. And here's the thing.

Just statistically, if all you did was play teams that have lost four straight against the spread. So Jags have lost four straight, which means by definition, they've fallen short of expectation four straight times. You would have won almost 52%. Now, you're right, well, what's 52? Well, this is 295 winners. This is the last 30 years, 276 losers. So it shows you just in general, everything is skewed that the market. people overreact to the bad.

Yeah, it's bad, but it's probably not quite as bad as they seem. And I tend to remember this week you mentioned something about, forget about great, forget about horrible, and usually things aren't as great as they seem or as bad as they say. I think the Jags, like you said, this line, if you would have bet this last week, the line was one and a half. Now, in the interim, neither of these teams have played. But somehow everyone's just hearing all about the Jags,

how bad they are, and it's gone up to three. But they lost in London. Yes. And that's like their second home. And they weren't. So that was a really bad sign for me. I agree. Before that, they had won three straight against the spread in London,

covering combined by 50 plus points. So I agree. Last thing. Teams off a buy, just all teams off a buy cover 51.5%. But teams off a buy that's on a three or greater game losing streak, like Jacksonville, 56%. They tend to focus. is when they're losing.

Think about it. The newspaper's talking locally. Radio's talking. They want to get that win. Disagreement on your Colts pick. Okay, I'm going to take a break here before I get back to RJ because I got my Cowboys' thoughts and I have my, what Rory I think is my bed of the week coming up.

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Dot com slash H-E-R-D. All right, back with RJ. I don't call for blowouts much, but I think Dallas is in big trouble. I'm going to take Philly minus six and a half. Eagles in a buy, Cowboys in a short week. Here's the other thing. Luck, Deshawn Watson and Wentz, off injuries, Rocky Septembers.

They are all rolling now. Let's not forget how gifted Deshawn, Luck, and Wentz are. This is a massive quarterback mismatch. I'm going to swallow the six and a half. Eagles win comfortably. What are the wise guys say? Deshawn Luck Wentz, that sounds like a serial killer, but I hear you.

A situationally great spot for the Eagles. Off a by Cowboys on a short week. I mean, that's about as good as it gets. Also, we've talked about don't be afraid to play teams that look like they're bad because they're usually not that bad. There is one exception, though, if there is truly turmoil in the locker room. And I know you're thinking in Jacksonville, there may be, and you may be right. I think in Dallas, this is one of our bigger bets of the week last week

were the Titans against the Cowboys on Monday night. And here was the thinking, first time in Jason Garrett's career as a coach, head coach, he fired a assistant, the O-Line coach. To me, that was a sign of Jerry Jones. You talk about his mortality, his sense of what are we going to do to get me a win now? Because who knows how many seasons I have left? I feel like this is a discombobulated cowboy locker room. Yep. Big advantage for the Eagles.

And you are so right, Colin, about Wentz. I mean, if you just look at the season, he's got 13 TDs in two and. interceptions. That's great. But if you look at his yards per attempt, as he's gotten healthier, he's gotten more aggressive. The play calling has gotten more aggressive for Wentz and he's thrown downfield more

Golden Tate. Not a great receiver, very good receiver, but they need playmakers. So to me, this is a rare spot agreement on the Eagles laying almost a touchdown. All right, finally. So I'm two and two agreement, disagreement. Here's the

tiebreaker. By the way, I went against the I feel because, I don't know, I feel like I know certain teams better than other teams. I'm going to take the Seahawks plus 10 against the Rams. First of all, the Rams have that big game coming up with Kansas City and Mexico City. They haven't had a by week. Their home field is me. And I'm sorry, these divisional games, they're just closer. You know the personnel.

You're not fooling anybody here. When I get rivals and I get 10 and I really do wonder about the Rams like the Saints is fatigue setting in. I love this spot. I'll take the Seahawks plus 10. What are the wise guys think? Love it. Agree with it. One of our favorite pick. You know, we're in that $5,000 super contest. And that's

the biggest handicapped and contest in the world for the 5,000 entry. 65% on the year were about a game out of first, 700,000 to the winner. And we will certainly have the Seahawks on that one. And here's the rationale, and you said it,

the spot. Rams have just finished four or five on the road. And off of that, Saints track me, and then off of Green Bay. Next week, they're in Mexico City against KC, the marquee game of the year, perhaps, in the NFL, and they haven't had a buy. So does it mean they're going to play horribly? No. It means if they get a lead, they're going to probably want to take the air out of the ball.

You also mentioned the idea of last week how they lost teams that are in. 8 and 0 or better. Then they lose the next game, last 30 years. It's only happened 16 times. Eight and eight straight up. So think about it. They've been undefeated the whole time. They lose one.

And then the next game, they lose half the time. That's a letdown because the undefeated season is no longer possible. Last thing. Rams, I think still probably best team in the NFL. Vegas doesn't let you win with the obviously good teams. If you had bet the Rams the last six games, you would have covered once, by the way, best team probably in memory, the New England 2007 team, undefeated up to the Giants game in the Super Bowl. If you had bet that New England team the last nine games of the year, eight and one straight up, one and eight against the spread. Vegas does not let you win with the obvious bets.

That's why I don't like Vegas. They never give me easy money. So there we go. We got three to agreement. Okay, now let's do the bonus pick. I was going to do Jets bills, but it's a mess with quarterback, so let's get it out. Let's do my Baker-Mayfield bonus pick of the week. I would take the Browns here plus five and a half against the Falcons, and it mostly comes down to.

I don't think the Browns are as bad as they've looked. I think the weather is going to be 34 degrees. It's going to be wet and sloppy. It's a dome team Atlanta that really played as well as they can play last week. I'd have taken the Browns plus five and a half. My Baker bet, what are the wise guys think? Disagreement here. This is, and we've been talking about him, the duck,

on the shoe sharp game. The duct tape guy agrees with you, Colin. They're thinking, vow, you. Falcons are on the road. They're tired. Blah, blah, blah. Okay, here's the amazing stat. And this is just amazing.

If you look at the Brown's turnover margin, we know turnovers are so key in the NFL. If you win the turnover battle in a game, you cover the spread 77% of the time. Nothing else matters in those cases. The Browns are plus 11. this season in turnovers. That's the best in the NFL.

They have a 2-6-1 record. There's nine other teams this season that are plus four or better. So they're not as good as the Browns, but they're plus four in turnovers or better. Nine teams. Their combined record when they're not playing each other, 50 wins, 13 losses.

So for every other team of the league, if they get a turnover advantage over the course of the season so far, 50 and 13, the Browns, with the biggest turnover advantage, two, six, and one. That's a sign this team is a lot worse than we think because they've benefited from turnovers to Browns

and they still can't win. Good stuff. RJ Bell, first ever national network radio show covering sports betting, 6 to 7 Eastern on Fox Sports Radio, pregame.com at RJ in Vegas. So I got three to agreement. I will say this. I think secretly you like the Patriots this week,

even though you gave me a disagreement. You know how you always say that when I talk too much. It's a losing bet. When you hedge like you hedged, you don't really believe it. Well, here's the thing, Colin. I don't think you're right, but I'll tell you why I do that, because we've got, listen, you're one of the most popular radio guys in the world. We got hundreds of thousands of people listening. They'll say, RJ, RJ, that's all over here. So whenever it's not obvious, I've got a caveat. All right, buddy, good talking to you. Thank you. That's R.J. Bell. Last night, a blown call changed a game.

This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment,

and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast, podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an Acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are

starving for banter. Listen to humor me. with Robert Smygel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Clivert Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, Hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out. Quarterback on office, Blue, 42.

Hey, ref, my mama want you to wave. better. What? Where's he at? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Cliverts show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was finally. You just understood. That's how personal it got.

Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis coming to, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.