The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: 11/24/2018

Episode Date: November 24, 2018

Coming off a winning week Colin gives his Blazing 5 picks to RJ Bell of pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio who tells him which ones the wise guys in Vegas agree and disagree with. Plus, Colin includes a bonus pick that was not included in his Blazing 5. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise,

breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played. with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. I'm Michelle McPhee,

and I've been unraveling the strangest criminal alliance I've ever reported on, a Mormon polygamist and an Armenian businessman. Multimillion dollar house, Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, a billion dollar fraud. But how long can this alliance last? Tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Everybody, welcome to our Saturday pregame.com RJ Bell Blazance and Five podcast. It's great to have you in.

All right, before we start, here we go, my Blazing Five. That's a hot one. Let's Blaze it up. Fire it up. It's Collins, Blazing Fife. Seahawks at Panthers. Carolina, I'm going to take. take them plus three and a half. I know it's more than a field goal, but you got two things

working here. One, Carolina is sneaky good at home and Seattle's sneaky bad on the road. Look at the home road splits for Carolina. They're 5 and 0 at home. They average 32 points and they don't turn the ball over bizarrely at home either. They're plus 10 turnover differential, best in the league at home. They're a very good red zone offense. Seattle doesn't travel well. I'll swallow the points. Carolina wins 28. 23. Browns at Bengals. Like it, I love it. I love Cleveland here.

I know. Browns are off a buy. I believe even though they're not a great team, they play with a purpose. Everybody in that building is the Pied Piper is Baker Mayfield. It's actually in the last month. Strung some nice games together. Cincinnati's just overrated. They've been blown out several times.

When the Browns lose, the Browns lose close. This Bingle defense is on pace to be the worst in NFL history. Baker 19, these two picks in his last four starts. Browns, forget the points. I think they went out right, 27, 26. Giants and Eagles. Listen, this is, I'll swallow the six points and take Philly here. First of all, in the last two years, who wins games?

Eagles are giants. So I get the better team, the better roster at home. Carson wins against Eli. Listen, there are some things Philadelphia does very well, and there's some things that the Giants don't do well. The Giants have won consecutive games, but it's against the Niners and the Bucks. The Giants have the second few of sacks, 30th ranked third down defense. Say what you want about Philadelphia, but they played earlier this year, and it was an utter blowout, and I think there'll be another blowout at home.

Philadelphia wins 28 to 10. Packers had Vikings. I'm going to go just on the number here. I don't know if Green Bay wins, but I like the number three and a half points. Listen, the Packers have the third most sacks in the league. I don't like Kirk Cousins in these big standalone TV games. Aaron Still touchdown interception ratio is fantastic. 19 TDs and one picks.

And I'll go back to it. Kirk Cousins is the Andy Dalton of the NFC. Big games shrinks. I think Minnesota is the better team. But I like the number at three and a half. Let's call an upset. Green Bay wins it. 24.

to 23. A little bit of an upset pick. Not show how I feel about it. I like the first four picks better than that one, but it's my pick. I'm going with it. Aaron Rogers, bouncing back, motivated by golf and Mahomes and Trubisky and all this offense.

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That's when I listen. Six to seven Eastern on Fox Sports Radio. All right, here we go. This is interesting because I have learned from you, I bet numbers, not teams. My initial thought is, oh, I got to take Seattle plus three and a half, that extra half. And by the way, I had a winning, blazing five last week, RJ, and that half point won it with Kansas City. That half point was everything.

But when I look at the Panthers minus three and a half, I like them here. I've been saying this for years. They're one of the sneaky good teams at home. I think the game means a ton for them. they come off a weak performance. I like Carolina minus three and a half here. Despite that half, what are the wise guys think? This is a sharp handicap agreement, Colin.

And you talked about it, home road split. Now listen, Carolina's lost the last two on the road, embarrassed against the Steelers, and then that bizarre two-point conversion call. But at home, Carolina, 27 and 6 straight up. 27 winners, six losers. They're perfect this year. Seattle, by the way, on the road is one of the most reliant teams on their home field.

They're not a good road team, Seattle, relative to how good they are at home. And Seattle just played their last two games at home. And they weren't good. No, they lost to the Chargers, who just lost to Denver. And then they pushed against Green Bay, and it was a home run spot for Seattle. Short week for Green Bay. Green Bay was tired, and they had to come back to, cover that three or push that three.

So I'm not impressed with Seattle also matchup advantage for Carolina. Both teams want to run. Seattle ran for 273 yards against the Rams, 173 against Green Bay. Carolina's D is better against the run. Now let's flip over. Carolina wants to run. And Seattle's defense by far worse against the run. Their 20th DVOA against the run, number six against the pass.

So we've got a home field that really matters, and we've got a matchup advantage, agreement, Panthers. All right, Eagles minus six hosting the Giants, bizarrely, strangely, the Eagles could still win the division. But here's the thing. We know Philadelphia straight up last few years wins games. I know straight up the Giants aren't. I just feel like I get a better roster and a better team. And you're asking me, can Philly at home win by a touchdown? And I'm going to swallow the six.

I'll take the favorite Eagles. What are the wise guys think? I got to be honest, Colin, I enjoy when you're wrong. This is an advanced handicap. Wow. Not even advanced. Well, think about it because directionally, everyone's thinking the Eagles are going down, down, down.

But if you look at this line, it's six. Eagles are at home. So if the game were in New York, the line would be pick them. So you're saying the Eagles are only three points better on a neutral. Right. Eagles in the last two seasons, so go back to the start of last season are 20 and 9 straight up. The Giants are six and 20. Now, I get that the Eagles aren't playing as well as they did last year, but how different could this team be that this line would be this close? And then what is the biggest weakness for the Eagles that was exposed by Drew Brieze?

Well, is Eli going to be able to take advantage? Lastly, Eagles, you would think with their record defending Super Bowl champs, Maybe they pack up, but they have a heck of a chance to win this division. They're still motivated agreement, sophisticated Colin Coward Pick. We agree. Two and no agreement. Get back to RJ in a second. Robin Hood is an investing app that lets you buy and sell stocks,

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Colin.robinhood.com. And by the way, last couple of years, I have not done a blazing five Thanksgiving. It's kind of a disjointed week. But this week, I like the picks. And I looked at him and I thought, you know, I can win for these games. Packers, three and a half of the Vikings. It's a big primetime game. And Kirk Cousins is the Andy Dalton of the NFC.

He shrinks. And again, this is a whole... I just like the extra half point. I feel Minnesota's the better team, but I think this game is generally close. Aaron bigger in a spot than cousins. I'm going to take Green Bay plus three and a half. What are the wise guys think? Well, first off, if you were a tout in Vegas, you would have taken the week off to sit on your record.

That's the way they do it. But unfortunately, disagreement here. We like the Vikings. Two reasons. One, let's go back to home field advantage. Zimmer, we think he's one of the best coaches. He started with Minnesota in 2014. In that time, the Vikings at home against the spread, 26 winners, 10 losers, three pushes.

That's 72%. The next best team in the NFL, that's the best. Next best home, ATS record. The Pats are 70%. And the next best, 57. So the third best NFL team at home since 2014 is 57%. And the Vikings are 72%. This is a great home field advantage.

that people don't realize as much as they should. Aaron Rogers is below 500 on the road straight up in his prime. In these prime seven years, let's say, and Green Bay is the most reliant team on home field in the NFL. Their point differential last seven years is over 10 points different at home than the road. The road is 10 points worse. That's the most in the NFL. Imagine home field's supposed to be three, right? So it should be a six point difference.

For Green Bay, it's over 10. So best home team versus worst road team, Minnesota Advantage. Finally, motivation. Vikings have the better record. They have the better coach. And this is a team that still thinks they can make the playoffs. Green Bay, you've been saying it this week. McCarthy's out.

How can we be sure that Aaron Rogers really cares about saving his butt again? I think motivational advantage, we disagree with your Packers pick. Here's one of my favorites. Browns, off a by, rested. I don't think their roster is any worse than the Bengals. So I get a field goal, and I'm not sure the Browns are, I could line up the rosters. I like them. Off a buy. And here's the other thing, is that if you look at what Cleveland does, okay, they're not a good team.

But Baker Mayfield got a little momentum. these games are all big for Baker Mayfield. They're vocal and position leader. I think Cleveland's going to win this game. I'm not sure they're not the better team. Seriously, right now in the season, what are the wise guys think? Agreement here. They better be the better team because we're only getting three, right?

So the theory is they've got to be better. This is a pros versus Joe's. Pros are on the Browns, Joe's on the Bengals. I've never seen a team that needed a buy more than the Brown. And here's why. They played a record number of overtime games. And those are tiring emotionally and physically. And they went late into the year without a buy.

And they had a mid-season coaching change that happened that wasn't a buy week, wasn't a Thursday game, 10-day rest week. You rarely see that. The fact that they actually beat Atlanta to me was one of the shocking games of the season. But boy, it shows you if they could do that without a buy. this is a team that's coming together, not as a good team, but at least as an average team.

And you talked about Mayfield. His pass-a-rating on the prior game before the buy against Atlanta, 151, that's the highest for any Browns quarterback since they started as an expansion team in 1999. So there is that excitement around Mayfield. By the way, the Bengals, even worse than the public thinks. They won a number of coin flips that could have went either way early. And then they lost a number of coin flips.

Pittsburgh at home. They got crushed by Kansas City. They didn't cover the Bengals didn't against Tampa even though they were plus foreign turnovers. Teams that are plus foreign turnovers cover the spread 96% of the time. The Bengals couldn't cover against Tampa even though they were plus foreign turnovers. Then they're crushed by the Saints and then they're beat by Lamar Jackson. This Bengals team is no good. One caveat, Hugh Jackson is now on the Bengals. Is that an edge with knowing what's going on in the Browns? Some would say yes, some would say it's a disadvantage, but that is a wild card. All that said, agreement Browns.

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And I just think, you know, I'd give it to the audience. I think I'd take the Niners plus three and a half at Tampa for one reason. I still think everybody's trying to look good on tape for Kyle Shanahan. I think they feel pretty good about themselves going forward. They're not a great team now. And they run the ball really, really well. And so I think that's going to be kind of a low-scoring, choppy game. And I actually think the Niners locker room is better than Tampa's.

I don't even think Tampa knows if James Winston's going to be around next year. So I didn't make this in my Blazing Five. This would be it. I'd take the Niners on the road plus three and a half. What would the wise guys say? Disagreement here. And one of the things Colin I sincerely love about your show is you ask questions that aren't the obvious questions. Let me ask you a non-obvious question.

Are we sure Kyle Shanahan's a good head coach? Because if you look at the 33 prior games, without Jimmy G. All right? They've won three. They're three, San Francisco and 30, without Jimmy G. So I get that Jimmy G's important,

but you can't win any games without them? And now the question is, he's got a big contract, he's got equity with the team, Shanahan, meaning he's not going to get fired. You've got to wonder if the number one pick, they're in it now for the number one pick. Is there any chance or a little ambivalent,

the 49ers about winning these games. I think that's possible. Marlins looked mighty good these two games, surprisingly good, but he's an undrafted rookie that the 49ers did anything possible not to start. Remember that Thursday game against the Raiders? They waited until game time to give them the start,

even though Beatherd was hurt, and Betherd's not very good. And finally, last thing, this is amazing. We talked about it. NFL teams in our minus four in turnovers only cover 4% of the time. in the last four games Tampa Bay has been minus four twice. So two separate games.

They haven't lost against the spread either time. They're one. Oh, and one, Tampa Bay is being minus four in turnovers. Now, you might say, well, they're bad because all those turnovers. No, we really believe turnovers even out mostly in the long run. So if Tampa's able to do okay even when they're turning the ball over, you don't expect that to continue. I think Tampa's underrated. So I disagree with you.

We're going to go with Tampa. All right, RJ. You have a great Thanksgiving weekend with you and the fam, and we got three to one agreement on our blazing five picks, and we will talk soon. Thank you. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, in every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline.

and we're going straight to the source the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more,

follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman

help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends

on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kier Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere. but you're having him with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit are armored.

It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. I'm Michelle McPhee, and I've been unraveling the strangest criminal alliance I've ever reported on. A Mormon polygamist and an Armenian businessman. multi-million dollar house, Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, a billion dollar fraud. But how long can this alliance last? Tell me what you know.

Is somebody coming after me? Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human.