The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: 12/01/2018

Episode Date: December 1, 2018

Coming off his worst Blazing 5 of the year Colin tries to rebound and gives his Blazing 5 picks from week 13 to RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio who tells him which ones the wise guys in Vegas agree with. Plus, Colin releases a special bonus pick that was not included in his Blazing 5. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise,

breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Life is full of hurdles. So how do you keep going? On Hurtle with Emily Abadi, we're talking with the most inspiring women in sports and wellness from professional athletes, coaches, and Olympic champions, about the challenges that shape them and the mindset that keeps them moving forward. At our level, at this scale, being able to fail in front of the entire world. can do anything. I can do anything. Listen to Hurtle with Emily Abadi on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHart Women's Sports. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to learn the hard way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It's a

signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen and learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome to our Saturday RJ Bell podcast. Great to have you in today. Before we do anything, let's go to our Blazing Five. That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up.

It's Collins, Blazing Five. Browns at Texans. Texans minus six, so they only have to win by a touchdown. I'll take it here. They have one of the top five run offenses, and the Browns have one of the worst rush defenses. Here's also something about Cleveland. Baker Mayfield's been very good because he's been very comfortable in recent weeks. The Texans defensive front, JJ Wattis has a sack in each of the last four games.

The Browns also give up more big plays than any team in the NFL, 94. That's a run over 10 or a pass. over 20. Deshawn Watson's a big play quarterback. I'll take the Texans winning by 10. I think it's a very close competitive game, but they pull away late with a big play from Deshawn 2717.

Bears a Giants. Chicago's probably going to go with Chase Daniels. I'm going to take the Giants plus four and a half here. Listen, New York is a very healthy football team. The quarterback for the Bears is out, and I've said before, Chicago's good, but there are a lot of smoke and mirrors offensive.

It's a lot of David Copperfield. It's a lot of tricks. Guess what? Post Thanksgiving, their offenses come back down to earth. People are figuring out some of the sleight of hand. Chase Daniels probably gets the start. Why risked Trubisky? You lead your division.

Right now you get a home game. I think the Giants Bears is 21-20 either way. For fun, I'll pick the upset. But I'm definitely taking the Giants and four and a half points. Colts are Jaguars. Colts minus four. Like it. I love it.

This is two different locker rooms. The Colts are feeling great about themselves and can see the playoffs. The Jags don't like their quarterback. Leonard Fernette's out. They don't like their coach. They don't like each other. They've lost seven straight. This is a bad locker room against the good locker room.

And the Colts this season are humming now. Remember, seasons get knocked down to like teams play good pre- Thanksgiving, post- Thanksgiving. Last five games, Andrew Luck and the Colts are averaging 35 a game. Five and O, and they're not turning the ball over. Again, Leonard Fournett is out. Bortles is playing, though the coaches didn't want him to play. I'll swallow the four.

Like it, I love it. Colts win 3020. Ravens at Falcons. This is an easy one, too. I'm going to take Atlanta. It's mostly a pick-em. It's Atlanta minus one Falcons. I'm going to take Atlanta here.

Listen, Lamar Jackson's fun. Interesting as heck. Very compelling. And I like watching him more than Joe Flacco. But his passer rating was built the last two weeks on bad defense. Cincinnati and Oakland, and it was still the lowest pass rating in the NFL. The Falcons offense is two offenses. Road, not very good.

Home, they average 30 points and 425 yards. Ravens do not take the ball away. They do not make your quarterback uncomfortable. They only have eight takeaways all season as a defense. Matt Ryan's going to be at home uncomfortable. I'll swallow the point, 28, 23 Falcons. Vikings at Patriots. New England, unlike,

the rest of the league is not passing more, they're running more. New England's offense is averaging 28 a game down from 28 and a half a game, meaning New England's now become kind of a conservative run first offense. They're averaging 28 a game. I get the Vikings plus five. Do I think the Vikings can score 22, 23, 24? Yes, I do. I think the Patriots are the better football team and it's in Foxborough. I'm not going to pick against them. But if you look at that Minnesota defense this season, they keep games close. Red zone touchdown percentage allowed first in the league, meaning Patriots may move the ball. They're going to settle for some threes here instead of touchdowns. I'll take New England to win close 3028, but I'll absolutely take

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Peter Millar, M-I-L-L-A-R dot com slash heard. All right, let's bring in RJ Bell, founder of pregame.com, at RJ in Vegas, the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press. RJ, here we go. I had a bad week last week. I stunk last week. I was the pits last week. I was one and four. Listen, it happens to the best of them, Colin. Well, I'm not the best of them, but it happened to me too. Let's start with this. Colts Jags. I'm going to swallow the four here. First of all, I have a team with an optimistic locker room and an elite quarterback facing a team where I think they've cashed out and they don't even know who their quarterback is. I thought this number was a just this is a number for me. me. Colts minus four, easy bat for an optimistic team with an elite quarterback. What do the wise guys say? Well, you've got to be worried when it looks like an easy bat. Let's start there. But you do have agreement. And the public's on the same side. So whenever the public's on the

same side as the wise guys, there's usually less value because that side's going to get expensive. Even so, I agree with you here. This game was played three weeks ago, right? It was in indie. and since then they've actually adjusted the line over a touchdown, the relative line. So there really has been an upgrade for the Colts and a downgrade for the Jags. And typically when a team's losing as much as the Jags, you actually want to bet on them because no one wants to bet them. I think why it's different here, this is a team in turmoil, Jacksonville, Four net suspended, Ramsey's out. Kessler, he's taking a snap. in 13 NFL games, one and 12 straight up in those games.

Still, we're only downgrading Jacksonville one point because Bortles is so bad. On the other hand, you've been preaching Andrew Luck this year, and I think rightfully so. Here's an amazing stat. The best QBR season ever, ever in the history of quarterbacks, Tom Brady, undefeated regular season in 2007. his QBR was 87 that year. Andrew Lux, game-by-game QBR, has been over 87 each and every of the last five games. So what Andrew Lux done in the last five games over a season would be the best season ever for a quarterback.

Add it up, I don't like laying it on the road, but the Colts are the right side. This was a pretty easy one for me. Ravens at the Falcons Falcons minus only one. I understand I love interesting, and Lamar Jackson's interesting. But at home against the trocious defenses, bingles in Oakland, Lamar's look pretty good. But when you look at the passer rating and you look at the reality, now he's on the road against an elite quarterback who's humming. This is an easy one. I like the Falcons comfortably here.

What are the wise guys say? Yeah, Falcons' agreement here. Lamar Jackson, during his starts, or last week specifically, had the worst quarter. rating of any quarterback last week. And his starts, think about who they've played. Cincinnati, maybe the worst defense. Oakland, maybe the second worst defense. Right.

Right in the mix. So his stats aren't great and they're playing bad defenses. And now finally a road start and it's in a dome, right? Where crowd matters even more. Here's a big question with Jackson. Does he gain more from experience? as these games pass by, or does he lose more because the teams are getting tape on him?

What we've seen with limited quarterbacks in the past, when I say limited, I mean physically compared to the prototypical NFL quarterback, is they tend to do better these mobile quarterbacks early and not so well later, RG3 being a great example. You mentioned on the show this week. He actually had a better rookie season, RG3, than Andrew Luck did. But as time went on, it became more difficult.

Last week, I hate this because I had the Raiders. The Ravens covered, but they had a punt return TD and a fumble return TD. Yes. Just to cover. So to me, the only thing that concerns me here is the emotional letdown around the Falcons potentially because of what they're used to doing, meaning Super Bowl contention. They're out of it now. does that cause the team to let down?

I think this game is big enough. They don't. Agreement, Falcons favored by only one point. All right, I know this will sound crazy, but I'm going to take the Giants at home plus four and a five against the Bears, four and a half. And my feeling on this is, listen, I don't know if Trubisky's going to play. He's a running quarterback.

And my feeling with this team, with Green Bay now seemingly out of the playoffs, Chicago's not going to risk their starting quarterback in this game. They're going to go with Chase Daniels. And, you know, he's going to be the worst starting quarterback, arguably, in the NFL this weekend. I'm going to take the home team getting four and a half here. What are the wise guys think? You've got agreement here. And Chase Daniels did not impress last week.

Another lucky cover. If you watch that Thanksgiving game, boy, the Bears were lucky to cover that game. We estimate in Vegas a three-point downgrade from Trubisky to Chase Daniel. It also makes a good point. I think both those quarterbacks are limited, but as you've said, Nagy's been coaching up Trabisky in an impressive way.

It's going to be hard to do that with the backup quarterback. You mentioned the fact that bears, this is a team that's overperformed, no doubt about it. They actually, not only 8 and 3, they have 106 more points. Their point margin is plus 106.

I mean, this is a very good team, but they've been trending. down on their ability to run the ball. Yeah, this is one of my things with the bears. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors. I call them Copperfield. But after a while, you watch the same trick. Post- Thanksgiving, I think in the end with football, RJ, players matter.

I mean, the Cowboys linebackers are just great athletes. It doesn't matter what your schemes are. You can only fool people so long in this league. In the end, the Bears running backs are okay. It's a lot of smoke and mirrors. and NFL coaches have decoded some of their tricks. Not all of them, but some of them. Last four games, Bears, average yards per rush in the NFL is four.

Last four games, two and a half, three point eight, two and a half, two and a half. They are running the ball horribly, the Bears, and they need that. Giants are healthy. Giants are trending up. The offense has been better last three games. Last thing, who do the Bears play next week? Yes. The Rams.

Yes. That might be a little bit of a look ahead. Great point. Agreement bears. All right, by the way, before we get to our last few picks, you could wait until last minute to start your holiday shopping, or you could get amazing gifts that give gifts at Hellsburg Diamond's Black Friday event. Spend $69999 on jewelry like diamond studs or anniversary bands and get a free 40-inch Vizio Smart TV with built-in Wi-Fi, voice control support,

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bounceback week. This is another one where I thought it was pretty easy. Vikes plus five at the Patriots. Now, New England may win this game, but the Vikings attack, attack, attack. This is an offense that's going to put points up. New England has become a run-based offense. They still average 28 a game, even though the league,

everyone else, has moved up in scoring per game. I'm betting a number here. I believe a very powerful dynamic perimeter offense, five is too many to give to a run the clock down, shorten the game, run-centric offense more than people imagine now with Tom Brady. I'm going to take Minnesota plus five. What do the wise guys say? Now, did I hear this? right, you said it's an easy pick against Bill Belichick. Did I hear that? That part I may have misspoke. All right. I'm going to give you an agreement under

protest. The wise guys agree with you. I don't. Let's start though with I think the most amazing stat I've uncovered this year. Let's start in 2003 after the Patriots won their Super Bowl. So this is when everyone's paying attention to the Patriots. In theory, they're

getting expensive. Super Bowl champs get expensive. They're not good bets usually. Since then, if you had bet the Patriots blind, a thousand a game, just every week, you would have won $46,000. So 46 extra winning bets. There's five other teams in the NFL during that time that you were to win money with playing them blind. Saints are one of them. Oh, that's pretty good. Saints, charges, Vikings, Packers, Colts. Five other teams. If you had bet all of those teams, the combined winning on them was $45,000. You would have won more money on the Patriots than every other winning team since 2003.

Think about that. That's how hard it's been. Even Vegas can't figure out what makes Belichick Belichick. All that said, Vegas keeps fading them because they think, oh, there's value here. And that's where the wise guys are. They're with you. Here's what concerns me, though. If you actually look at the Patriots when they have Gronk, Edelman,

Sonny Michelle, their yards per play is 8.1. When even one of those guys are out, yards per play 5.6. So when they have all three of those weapons, boy, there's a consistency and a creativity to the Patriots. That's pretty good. Yeah. And one last thing, because this is going to be good as we proceed through December, is I'm a big believer, December and later regular season games are different.

the weather changes as you talk about and the physical condition of the teams. How much do they emphasize physical condition? The two best teams in the last four years, December and beyond in the regular season. So sometimes there's that last game in January or in January. The two best teams, these two teams, Vikings and Patriots. Wow. By the way, in the last month, I'll say this for Kirk Cousins. I don't love them in all these big games.

He completes about 70% of his throws. And not just that. just deck and dunk. He goes up field. So this is going to be a really, really, really good game. Finally, for no agreement. Baker Mayfield at the Texans, Deshawn Watson and the Texans minus six. This came down to this. Baker is comfortable at home. Great quarterbacks in the NFL go on the road. Yeah, I mean, even Drew Breeze on the road in Dallas Thursday night, not quite as sharp. Rookie quarterback, Texans have a very, very legitimate. legitimate, talented front.

I'm going to right now take Houston to cover, win by more than a touchdown. What do the wise guys think? Disagreement here. Strong disagreement here. Start off with the following trend. Houston, they've won eight straight, obviously, and off a big Monday night win.

It's a perfect storm for them to be overvalued because they won a bunch of coin flips the Texans during that eight game winning streak. And then in front of the world, they looked very impressive. Now, if you go back 30 years and look at all NFL teams with eight or more game win streak, just straight up, right?

Nothing against the spread. They've won eight straight or more like Houston. You'd be 42% against the spread betting on them. 72 winners, 98 losers. Why? Because they get expensive. Everyone gets excited about them. And I also think this is a good matchup for the Browns.

So Houston's offense, if you look at DVOA, that's an advanced metric, is 20. But they actually pass quite well. Number 16, they run number 30. So let's just say Houston can pass but not run. The Browns defense against the pass is the second best in the NFL. Against the run, the Browns are number 26. So the way you beat the Browns is run against them. I don't know if Houston can do that. Last thing, Mayfield. I know you're skeptical. I am too. But in the three games since Hugh Jackson departed, his passer rating, $120. That would be the best in the NFL this season over the course of the season. All right, bonus pick time. This is a game a lot of people are going to bet. Chargers, Steelers, Pittsburgh attracts a lot of attention. Chargers getting three and a half at the Steelers. I think it's a lower scoring game than people think.

Two great quarterbacks. Two great defensive fronts. I would probably bet the number and take the Chargers. What would the wise guys say to that? Oh, disagreement on this one. And I tell you this, Colin. For our straight out of Vegas show, one of the things we do is listen to your first, at least couple segments, because we're busy.

And I'm looking for ways to disagree with you because there's no better way to get attention than legitimately disagree with you. Here is one where I really disagree about Big Ben. You've been talking about, hey, it was Thursday, and I'm still talking about that interception. I think for most teams, you're right. That would be a distraction. For the Steelers, what it means is Big Ben. Ben is paying attention to his turnovers.

And really with the Steelers, his being buttoned up, to use your phrase, Big Ben, when he's buttoned up, is a top three or four quarterback. When he's not, he's not. And I think because of all this talk about his turnovers, it means you're going to get less turnovers from Big Ben. And because of that and the home field advantage, I think Pittsburgh and the wise guys agree roll over the charges. one agreement, RJ Bell, who hosts the first ever national network radio show covering sports

betting every weekday Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 Eastern, 3 to 4 Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. Good talking to you. Thank you. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where sports slice comes in.

I'm Timbo. And every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to SportsSlyce on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman, help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel,

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Life is full of hurdles. So how do you keep going?

On Hurtle with Emily Abadi, we're talking with the most inspiring women in sports and wellness from professional athletes, coaches, and Olympic champions about the challenges that shape them and the mindset that keeps them moving forward. At our level, at this scale, being able to fail in front of the entire world. Like, I can do anything. I can do anything. Listen to Hurtle with Emily Abadi on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports.

I'm Michelle McPhee, and I've been unraveling the strangest criminal alliance I've ever reported on a Mormon polygamist and an Armenian businessman. Multimillion dollar house, Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, a billion dollar fraud. But how long can this alliance last? Tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me?

Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human.