The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: 12/08/2018

Episode Date: December 8, 2018

Coming off another disappointing week Colin tries to rebound and gives his Blazing 5 picks from week 14 to RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio who tells him which ones the wise guys in Vegas agree with. Plus, Colin releases a special bonus pick that was not included in his Blazing 5. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

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And before we go to RJ Bell at pregame.com, here's my blazing five. That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up. Fire it up. It's Collins, Blazing Fife. Patriots and Dolphins. Dolphins plus seven and a half. I really like this number.

By the way, the Patriots have lost four of their last five games on the road in Miami. The Patriots are just three and three on the road in Miami. And they don't make you uncomfortable. They have only 19 sacks, second fewest in the NFL. Brady hasn't been good there. They've got the division mostly wrapped up. And by the way, the Dolphins defense, they get after. after it. They are third in the NFL in takeaways over the last month. New England escapes

with a win 2723, but I love Miami plus seven and a half. Falcons at Packers. Like Green Bay minus four and a half. Like it, I love it. Listen, Aaron Rogers has chewed up the Falcons in his career like nobody else. And the Falcons are on a four-game losing streak. They were on life support last week, lost at home to Baltimore, think they've packed it in. This is a bad defense. It's the first game after Mike McCarthy was fired, and I think Aaron Rogers knows I can turn and pivot out of the bad, ugly press. He'll be precise. Packers in a blowout 32, 22. Broncos at 49ers. Again, Denver's coming off big wins. Everybody now beat the Steelers and beat the Chargers and just lost Emmanuel Sanders.

their leading receiver who led them in everything. Targets, catches, yards. He's gone for the season. I also think if you look at the 49ers home and away, they're a tough out at home. Broncos are an average road team, three and three on the road this year. Bottom line, if San Francisco limits turnovers,

I'm going to take the five points with the Niners. Doesn't matter who wins. It's a 24, 23 win. Way too many points for, I think, a Denver offense that will miss their star receiver. Eagles at Cowboys. This is really a numbers game. I don't bet teams I bet numbers.

Philadelphia plus three and a half, I'm going to take the Eagles here. Bottom line is, if it was three, I probably pass. But Philadelphia and Carson Wentz have been very good against the NFC East. He's 7 and 1 against the NFC East over the last two years. And Dak Prescott not only has fumble issues, he's been sacked 45 times this year the most in the NFL.

Yes, the Cowboys have won four straight, but all of those wins are by eight points or fewer, and would it shock anybody if Dallas pulls back a little after that wildly emotional, standalone national TV game? I think the Cowboys win an ugly, low-scoring close game, 26, 24, but I'm going to take, this is just a number. Three and a half, you have to take Philly. Rams at Bears. Upset alert. Bears plus three. at home, cold and slightly windy, Chicago, I'm going to take it. First of all, there's one great

defense in this game. And post- Thanksgiving, this isn't close. The Bears are top five and everything. Takeaways, total yards, points per game, rushing yards. They're five and one at home. They're a young team and young teams tend to play much better home in a way. Yes, I know both offenses are really high-powered, but the Rams offense did not look good last week, and Jared Goff is in a little bit of a slump. I'm going to take the field goal, the home team. You know, these Sunday night games, these Sunday night games, young home team, coming off a loss, Soldier Field is going to be nuts. I'm going to take the Bears with an upset win, 27 to 26. All right, now we bring in the man who gets it right, a lot more than I do.

R.J. Bell, pregame.com. He's the founder of pregame.com. They are the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press. And he is also doing the only only in America. In fact, I've looked it up the entire world. He's doing a one-hour daily network gambling show. Three to four Pacific, six to seven Eastern, and let's bring in RJ Bell. All right, let's start. Let's start with this, RJ. Tom Brady is struggled in two places. At Denver, high altitude, and in Miami, which is a much different weather than Foxborough. Dolphins have talent.

These games are always close. I don't think it's a coincidence. He struggled here. I'm going to take the dolphins plus seven and a half. What do the wise guys say? Wise guys agree with you. I'm going to agree under protest. We talk about this every time you pick the Pats games.

Either way, which is how good Belichick is against the spread. Every week there seems to be a new rationale. Oh, but this week is different. No, long-term, Patts cover the spread a massive amount of time. But this week does feel different, right? We remember last year in Miami, Patriots lost on Monday night. In fact, last five times. Patts have gone down to Miami.

Miami is four-in-one straight up. Yes. Four-in-one against the spread. Pat's not good on the road this year, three and three. And here's an amazing stat. Last three times the pats have been favored by six or more. Check that. The last five times, they've lost three.

So last five times, two wins, three losses. In the prior 39 times, they only lost the game twice. So two and 37, followed by two and three. It does feel like a kink in the armor. Listen, Miami's not a great team. I mean, who are we kidding? But Tanna Hill's been back two games. His passer rating, 119?

Yep. 100. Yes. So quite good. Only thing it really concerns me here in December last five years. Now, December's not arbitrary, right? Because it's about how healthy teams stay. It's about their physical condition.

Pat's are the best team against the Vegas spread last five years in December, 14 and 6. worst team, dolphins, six and 15. Want to know agreement under protest. Second one here, and this goes against what a lot of people would think. Broncos have been winning, and they've been impressive. Philip Lindsay, the running back's been fantastic. The way I look at this game is simple. Broncos have had a huge turnover edge in those games.

But if you get down to it, San Francisco is a tough out at home. And I do think, and I see this occasionally in the NFL, that teams have these stretches of intensity, and then like the Saints, they kind of fall flat on a road game. I think San Francisco keeps it close. I'll take the five. What do the wise guys say? This is a wise guy special agreement here.

You're right. Everyone's looking at the Broncos, three straight wins against, think about it, the Steelers, the Chargers. I mean, that looks mighty good. And then a clear blowout win. And Lindsay's starting to get a lot of attention. And I think rightfully so, the third highest yards per carry since 1970.

I mean, he's having an amazing year, but you mentioned it. Three wins, Broncos plus eight in turnovers. Now, some listeners might say that's a good thing. Well, we believe Vegas strongly believes turnovers tend to even themselves out. They got a big advantage being plus eight. That's likely not to continue. Sanders out. You might say, ah, how important it?

Well, he was by far, by far, after trading away their other receiver, the most important Denver receiver. And less discussed, Chris Harris, cornerback is out. Yeah, great player. Big deal. Here's the stat of the week. This season, the 49ers have two wins. They've outgained their opponents. If you just add up the yards, 49ers, they've had turnover problems.

When they don't lose the turnover battle, San Fran, two and two this year. So they're an average team in those spots. One concern is Shanahan has so much equity. He's not losing his job no matter what. Jimmy G's coming back next year. You got to wonder, do they have their eye on that number one pick? I don't think teams tank in the NFL, but boy, maybe in the back of their mind, hey, if we don't win these games, it's probably not a big deal.

All that said, the sharp side is certainly 49ers. This is a pick that I feel very strongly about. I'm going to take Green Bay. And what's the current spread right now? You know, five and a half. Let's call it five. I think five is fair. Aaron Rogers has had a bad two weeks of PR.

Brother calls him out. McCarthy fired, finally getting blamed. Okay, he can clean it all up with a brilliant performance the minute Mike McCarthy leaves. And guys like me will say, yeah, it was McCarthy. In Atlanta, by the way, still thought they could be a playoff team. and their season essentially ended last week. I think they're going to go on the road and they're going to be a dead team walking. I think Aaron Rogers is going to be motivated to be great.

I'll take Green Bay by double digits. What are the wise guys think? Well, I tell you this, I agree with you 100%. Wise guys are torn on this game, but I agree with you 100%. And I'll be honest, I think you have had the best stat about Aaron Rogers and his discontent with McCarthy. which was your throwaway stat, right? And if I remember it was he, at a certain point recently, Aaron Rogers had twice as many throwaways.

As everybody else in the league. Than any other quarterback. So now you've got to wonder, wait a minute. Aaron Rogers is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. He's a playmaker. Why is he throwing the ball away? I think your conclusion was right on. Also, you talked about it on the show yesterday.

Winston Moss, the idea of him after 12 years of loyal, service being fired for that tweet. There's a purge going on in that Packer building. And you've got to figure Aaron Rogers has more scrutiny this game than any game probably in a couple years, you know, since a big playoff game. So I think you're going to see 100% focus. And let's be honest, the other players are thinking, man, if Winston Moss is getting fired over that, we better tow the line. I think this is a all about the motivation of a, Aaron Rogers, and quite frankly, how he probably hasn't been playing up to 100% prior. Thus, Green Bay's underrated because of it, agreement Packers.

Three and no agreement. Eagles plus three and a half at the Cowboys, this is a number game. If it was three, I'd pass. I'll take the three and a half. Something, would it shock anybody if after their biggest win in two years, the Saints, they came back down to Earth. The offensive line, DAC is getting sacked a lot. this to me too many points for an ugly low scoring game.

I think Dallas comes back. I think Philly plays with some urgency. I'm going to take the Eagles and half a point more than a field goal. What are the wise guys say? Hey, by the way, you're thinking about it right, which is winning batters, bet numbers, losing batters bat teams. That said, I'm going to give you a slight disagreement here. And here's why. I think the Eagles are even more overrated than Dallas.

Dallas. Dallas just naturally is because they're America's team. So when they play well, everyone gets extra excited. I think that's your instincts here to go against that. But what's Philly done? They won on Monday night even against Sanchez, right? So obviously a limited Washington team. And then they almost lost to the Giants recently. They should have lost that game, remember? So how differently would we be thinking about Philly if they had lost that game? By the way, I know you remember, Colin. Is Philly at home? Division. round against Atlanta last year, late in the game, Atlanta had the ball first and goal on the nine.

Yeah. At that point, the in-game odds were 60% Atlanta was going to win the game. If Atlanta had won that game, how differently would we be thinking about a team that unexpectedly made the playoffs last year, lost in their first game in the division round, and now is six and six. What would we think of Philly? Typical Philly. It'd be like, oh, you know, we'd be thinking of them like not that much.

different than let's say Tennessee, who had just made the playoff. Now, obviously, Wence and all that, a little bit better in general. But what I'm saying is Philly winning that Super Bowl was a couple wins in a row. They get their ring for sure, but it doesn't really change the fundamental quality of the team. And I think Philly's just naturally overrated. And one thing that makes me like Dallas, in the NCAA tournament, in basketball, you often see a team. that's much better than their record. And why that is is it's usually a very young team.

And if you blend November, December, all the way through March, they're not near as good as you look at the reality in March because they have a trend line up. Yeah, good point, good point. Dallas on defense, their two best players are very young. A second year guy, a first year guy. Yeah, that's a good point. So they're trending in the last month.

They're a different defensive football team. Yes. And if you look at the season stats, I don't think they represent how good they. Dallas is on defense. All right. So a three to one agreement. I think the Bears are going to upset the Rams. Chicago almost always wins the turnover battle. I watched the Rams last week. I thought they really struggled. I don't think they're as good without Cooper Cup. I think Chicago, you know, 28-degree weather, this is built for them coming off a loss. Tribisky's back. I see an

upset. It's too expensive. I'll take the Bears plus three. Yeah, this is the duct tape on the shoe, but you do get agreement, right? This is a 10-year-old handicap, and the guys that usually handicapped like this, they got duct tape on the shoes. We've talked about it because they haven't won in 10 years, so they have those same shoes. But, listen, Trubisky's back,

and Chase Daniel actually was highly regarded as a backup, you know, coming into the last few weeks. He disappointed. You know, so Trubisky's a big upgrade. Here's what concerns me about the Bears. If you look at the last five games, How many yards do the Bears gain per rush attempt? Now, the average in the NFL historically has been 4.0 yards.

This year it's a little bit higher. Here's the yardage. 2.6, 2.5, 38, 2537. Wow. Every one below. In the prior four games, 4-5-3, 5-4-5-3. So they were way above, now they're way below. And Trubisky's only been out two of those five.

So to me, Nagy, scheming. up Trubisky, this team, and I think maybe the D.C.s are catching up a little bit. All that said, I think there's a big negative for the Rams. I actually tend to read the press reports of the post games because I want to understand what the players and coaches are thinking. Gurley said this last week after the game. It was a long week. I'm tired.

Now, wait a minute. The Rams were off a buy, and then they played one game. So I think the fires and all the activity in L.A. recently maybe has this Rams team tired. You mentioned the weather, and the Rams are expensive in general. They've only covered two of their last eight games. So I'm going to give you a begrudging agreement on the Bears. Bonus pick time, RJ Bell, pregame.com, the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press. He's got his one-hour show daily on Fox Sports Radio, three to four Pacific, six to seven Eastern.

bonus pick. I would have taken the Chiefs minus six and a half hosting the Ravens, who I think are a little overvalued right now, although Lamar Jackson has surprised me. What would the wise guys say? I disagree, and the wise guys disagree on this one. We like the Ravens. You know, there's a ton of debates about Lamar Jackson we can have, but they don't really apply to this game, meaning we can debate, is he going to be able to pass well enough to be an NFL quarterback? Or is it sustainable? that Lamar Jackson is going to run this much. But it doesn't matter. What matters in this game is, can he be effective for this one game? And if you look at the rushing yards with Jackson, 207, 242, 267 for the Ravens.

Now, a really savvy NFL guy would say, but RJ, look at the rush defenses they went against. Atlanta number 29, Oakland number 31, Cincinnati, number 28. Okay. Kansas City is the worst rush defense in the NFL. And finally, Kreme Hunt, I don't know how much it's on the field. I don't know how much it is off the field, but they were very distracted last week. No question.

And I tell you, Andy Reid off a bye is historically good. You would have thought they would have wanted to make a statement to get behind the hunt situation. I wonder if it's going to affect the Chiefs more than people think. Oh, lastly, next week, biggest game of the year. probably. Yeah, you're right. You're right. Hosting the Chargers on Thursday. Yeah, no, and that always plays out. If you got a massive rivalry game, good stuff. RJ Bell, pregame.com. Good talking to you, bud.

Thank you. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. In every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story. behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories,

their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumored me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you fun. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What?

Time out. Quarterback on office blue of 42. Hey, rep, my mama want you to wave at her. What? Where's she at? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021.

and I'm Kunky, his best friend, and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

This is an I-Heart podcast, guaranteed human.