The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5: 12/22/2018

Episode Date: December 22, 2018

Coming off another winning week Colin gives his Blazing 5 picks from week 16 to RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio who tells him which ones the wise guys in Vegas agree with. Plus, Colin releases TWO bonus picks that were not included in his Blazing 5. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to our Saturday morning podcast, my Blazing 5 plus two bonus picks. Gonna give you two. It's our final Blazing 5 in the regular season because I'm out next Friday skiing in Utah. Yeah, that'll be fun. But if Gottlieb goes 5-0, then I can take credit for those. All right, first, here's my Blazing 5. That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up.

Fire it up. It's Collins, Blaz and Fire it. Saturday night game, Chargers minus 4 and a half. It's going to be a good game, low-scoring for a while. Ravens play real defense. But the Chargers, who we fell in love with about week eight, lead the NFL in big plays with 118. That's a running play over 10 yards, a passing play over 20.

meanwhile Lamar Jackson is yet to throw for 200 yards in a game Baltimore will hang around in this football game and they'll keep it close but in the end they're running a wing tee against the most explosive offense in the national football league Chargers win it and cover 27 to 20 Packers at Jets Packers minus 3 like it I love the Packers Listen Sam Darnold played well last week best game he's ever played as a pro

and they still lost at home. They've lost eight of nine games. They're a total rebuild offensively. Offensive line, receivers, backs. They have a decent tight end and Sam Darnold. The Packers are 0 and 7 on the road. They haven't gone winless on the road since the 50s. Aaron Rogers is playing for a reason.

To still prove, they fired the coach for the right reasons. I'm going to take the Jets to battle for a while. But Aaron wins covers 28, 23. Bears at 49ers. San Francisco on the road is a mess. Oh, and 7, because they don't have a starting quarterback of note. But at home, they're a tough out.

They have beaten back-to-back weeks at home. Denver and Seattle, and I like them to be super competitive here, getting four points against Chicago. By the way, Mitch Trubisky, young quarterback, very good at home. Incredibly mediocre away from home. That happens with young quarterbacks. I mean, it just does. Young quarterbacks are good in spots, but you get a roller coaster home and away.

By the way, the best statistical rookie quarterback in the league is not Baker Mayfield. It's Nick Mullins. Look it up. Niners cover. I think the Bears win last second field goal, but I'll take the points in the Niners 2423. Giants at Coles. I get the Giants plus nine and a half. Indianapolis is a better team, but they just came off a shutout over the Cowboys.

They are feeling themselves today, and they're a good team. but they're not a good enough team to blow people out if they come down emotionally. The Giants have been a better road team this year, yet to lose by more than seven on the road, average 26 a game on the road. Again, the culture of a better team, but they are a better, they're only a few weeks out from getting shut out by the Jaguars. They have to be totally focused. I think they lose a little focus.

They win the game, but I'll take the Giants plus nine and a half, 30, 20, 3. three Colts. Chiefs at Seahawks. Listen, Seattle at home, off an embarrassing loss, getting two and a half points on Sunday night football. The Seahawks at home in prime time,

the last six years, including playoffs, are 16 and 2. And Russell Wilson's got 35 touchdowns and nine picks. Seattle's got the number one-ranked running game. The Chiefs have the 26-rank rushing defense. Patrick Mahomes will watch. this game from the sidelines. For most of it, ball control, raining in Seattle, pressures on Kansas City, 2826 Seahawks win. I will take the two and a half points. All right, now we bring in RJ Bell,

founder of pregame.com. Pregame.com is the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press at RJ and Vegas. All right, we came off another winning week, final regular season, Blazing 5. I'm going to start with this. Giants Colts, nine and a half for a team the Giants that have actually played better on the road. The Colts are off a huge, impressive win, shutout went over the Cowboys. I like the Colts. I think they will have a little pullback. Don't forget, they were shut out by the Jags not long ago.

They're an imperfect club. I'll take the Giants plus nine and a half. What do the wise guys think? So the Colts of won seven of eight in your rationale is, Remember the one game they lost in those eight games? What was that? Well, the Jags. It was the Jags.

It was the one loss. So, listen, you've got agreement. I don't like this, right? So the wise guys are with you. But here's my point. Here's why they're with you. Because the Colts did look by far their best, right? So high by low.

Well, the theory is the Colts are really high right now. Right. But I just wonder, is it merited? Meaning the public's just finally jumped on board. board. But when you win seven of eight, when you look at DVOA, which is a great advanced metric, yes. The culture number six in the NFL. Yeah, no, I, listen, and it's their defense that has blown people away. And it's young and it's trending upwards throughout the season. No, I, listen, Colt are going to win this game. But man, when you look at nine and a half,

Pat Shermer and the Giants, Sequin Barclay are moving the ball. Nine and a half to me, it's a numbers game. That is a lot of points. No, no, I agree with you about the numbers part of it. Are we sure the Giants are going to play hard in this game? It's a road game out of conference. They just got embarrassed against Tennessee. They had one four or five, right? So there was excitement.

Yeah, and that's what I'm remembering. But then they got, I mean, Tennessee dismantled that. Tennessee, though, crushed Dallas, crushed New England. They can crush your spirit. They are physically an imposing team. And if they get rolling, they kind of suffocate. you. So I've seen Tennessee do that a lot. But I worry if the Giants had their spirit crush,

maybe it's not a good thing for this week. So let's just say this. Most of the wise guys are with you. I'm skeptical. I think there might be a reason the culture this expensive. All right. Second game, I'm going to go over to this game. Chargers minus four and a half with the Ravens. Now, here's the thing. Ravens play real defense. So I bet you there's great division in Vegas on this.

But when I saw the Chargers play a rookie quarterback, Baker Mayfield, they suffocated him. and I think this is a wingtie offense. I don't think it's sustainable over the course of 16 games. And I think Baltimore is going to come out west. And a team that doesn't throw the ball is going to be kind of a one-trick pony offensively. And I think the Chargers are playing for a number one seat. So I'm going to swallow the four and a half and take the Chargers.

What do the wise guys think? Agreement here. Now listen, if we just did a head count again, I think more Sharks would be on the Ravens, right? They love running in defense. I agree with the sharps on the Chargers. Ravens versus the run defenses they've faced. Five weeks with Lamar Jackson. This is almost hard to imagine, Colin.

It's been five of the sixth worst run defenses in the NFL. It's like a dream scenario. Tebow faced this, where he faced a lot of bad teams for about a five-game streak, won close games thanks to a kicker. This is very Tebow-esque. But if there's bad teams, it's a little more obvious, bad run defenses, right? so they faced Kansas City. Oh, that's a good team, right?

But they had one of the worst run defenses. So I do think the one-dimensional element was more effective for Baltimore against these bad run defenses. Number two, what do you need against the Reed option? You need defensive speed on the edges. The chargers have that, right? So that's important. Number three, you mentioned it.

I know I was on with Gottlieb yesterday, and he said he's going to that game on Saturday. You mentioned you're going to the game on Saturday. this Saturday night game, I have a feeling of Chargers typically with a less than passionate fan base. Maybe the crowd's going to be a little more rocking on Saturday night for the Chargers. Also, Ravens have to travel all the way across the country on a short week. Remember Saturday game. Last thing on this one.

A couple weeks ago, the Baltimore Ravens played Kansas City in Kansas City. The line on that game was seven and a half. Now it's four, four and a half. So how would you compare the chargers to the chiefs? I think chargers are better. All right. So let's just say they're even. So this line has dropped from seven and a half at Kansas City to four, four and a half.

I get it. Baltimore's won a couple games, but what, they beat Tampa Bay. They beat the Raider. To me, this is a sign of the value, the difference between the Kansas City line, seven and a half hosting Baltimore. And now charges only four and a half hosting Baltimore agreement charges. Two and no agreement. The holidays are close.

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This is still a team that's banged up offensively that is in a complete rebuild in the offseason. They have no, no spark offensively. I don't think Darnold will play that well. I get Aaron Rogers. listen, Green Bay is still a good football team that's underperformed. This was an easy one for me. I like Green Bay minus a field goal. What are the wise guys think?

I'm a big believer that nobody, I don't care who you are. Jimmy the Greek in his best day didn't know more than the team knows about that team. So you look at and you've got, and you don't always say it, but I can kind of hear it. You've got GMs and scouts you talk to. you hear about these teams and they know more about their own team than any media guy, any better does. Why is Aaron Rogers playing in this game? Let me ask you.

Meaning that they just shut down the running back Jones. They don't have any chance to make the playoffs. Aaron Rogers has been hobbled the entire season. Why are they, this is a meaningless game and he is their franchise. Why is he playing? I don't know. I don't either. There's some reason, though, the very fact Aaron Rogers.

is playing makes me agree with you on the Packers. He would not go through the motions and play. If he didn't want to play hard, he wouldn't be here. And then the rest of the team is looking and say, wait, if Aaron's playing hard, we better play hard. I think that cue from Aaron is the key to this game. Also, you mentioned the Jets. Their number one wide receiver out.

Number one running back out. Also, and this is a sneaky big injury, offensive, tackle Brandon Schell. Yeah, he's out. Out. Now, his replacement on pro football focus has a score of 29. That means 70 is above average player. 29's about as low as you go. The backup to that tackle hasn't taken a snap all year. So literally you took their worst tackle, replaced them with one of the worst tackles in the league, and the backup hasn't played a snap all year.

No one's going to talk about Shell, but that is a big deal. Packers Agreement. All right, Bears at 49ers. I think you could have an upset here. I think the 49ers at home are a pretty good team. Bears have their division wrapped up. Anybody that's got a Nick or a cut, they'll sit. Four is too many here.

I think it's a very, very close game. And again, the Niners can run the ball. Nate Mullins has been a remarkable story. I'm going to take the points here. Can I make it four no agreement? What are the wise guys think? Yeah, biggest agreement of the week here. Oh, okay.

All right. I mean, this is a classic wise guy play. I don't disagree, but I do have one caveat. Let me ask you this question, though. You don't think the bears are motivated by a potential buy in a number two seeds? I do, but I also think they've got a, like Eddie Jackson, they've got a bunch of guys banged up. And I think they're going to rest some of them.

And I think that sends kind of a message that let's go out west, let's win this football game. But I think, I think deep down there, they're going to host a, they're going to host a playoff game. They're pretty sure they're not going to host a second one and defense travels well. So I think they're comfortable where they're at hosting a playoff game against like a, you know, a Dallas or something, and then having to go on the road in L.A., which is their most likely scenario. I think they're comfortable with that.

Yeah, see, to me, I agree with you about a number of those things. One, Eddie Jackson is a big safety. Huge, huge star for them. Yeah, I mean, really one of the emerging stars this year. Nick Malins on the 49er side, a shockingly good season. There's a site called Football Perspective saying Nick Mullins is the best rookie quarterback this year. If you just look at the stats, that's very interesting. Now, here's another thing that makes me like the 49ers.

Chicago's offense, you're right, the defense travels well. The offensive O'DVOA at home number 14 on the road number 29. So Chicago not as good on the road offensively. Okay, good. 49ers defense at home, number 13 on the road, number 24. So this is a really good home thing for San Fran situation. Here's my concern. Last thing.

Third straight home game for San Fran. That's great, right? But let's use the spread to compare. Two weeks ago, they played Denver. Denver is a slightly, if not more than slightly below average team. San Fran was plus four at home. They won, they covered. Then Seattle came in.

Seattle, much better in Denver, right? Well, Seattle was plus four. San Francisco won and covered. Now Chicago comes in much better than Seattle, and they're plus four. So literally two weeks ago, the 49ers were getting four against Denver, and now they're getting four against Chicago. That is a lot of adjustment on a team in two weeks. Four and all agreement.

That's your focus. None of those other concerns. the games. It's all about me. All right, hold on one second. Guys, if you travel for work and you're looking for small comforts and I am when I travel, I hate checking bags. Any little small comfort, I'll go with it. Check out

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Do yourself a favor. Get a Perth today. You'll thank you. Go to petermalar.com slash hurt. Be sure to use my link and you'll receive complimentary. shipping and a free hat. It's easy. Peter Millar, M-I-L-L-A-R-com slash shirt. Peter malar.com slash hurt. All right, going for a perfect agreement this week. Kansas City in the last month has been a bad team to bet with. Seattle comes off an ugly, ugly loss. It's going to be

raining. They are incredible. Russell Wilson's record in primetime stand-alone games is phenomenal. I'm going to take the inferior team barely at home, bad weather, Russell Wilson, and two and a half. What are the wise guys think? Disagreement. This is another example. If you just did a head count, I think you have more sharps agreeing with you on Seattle. And there's a lot of reasons to back that up. Number one, Seattle as a two and a half point or greater home underdog has covered 11 straight times. Wow.

So Seattle is very. good at home. Wow. Especially in prime time, especially when the crowd's rocking. And when they're getting points, they're very, very good. At home, you combine the two 11 straight covers. Well, that sounds great, right? And also, if you look at Kansas City, last five games, since Kareem Hunt in that incident, zero covers in five games. So literally, by definition, the spread is what Vegas expects.

And Kansas City has not exceeded expectation once in the last five games. okay, why then do I disagree with your Seattle? Here's the key. Cluster injuries. What do you need to defend Kansas City? You need interior cover guys to defend the backs and all the little things they're doing, tight ends across the middle.

Well, Seattle has two safeties. Both, one's doubtful and one is very questionable Thompson. So come game day, both those safeties play, I'm going to be right on Seattle with you. if one safety plays, I think the game's a toss-up. If you have both safeties out for Seattle, that is a nightmare. Imagine having your third and fourth safeties trying to cover Kansas City. Yeah, that's a good point.

By the way, RJ Bell hosts the first ever national network radio show covering sports betting weekday, six to seven Eastern on Fox Sports Radio. It's a great show. I'm going to give a couple of bonus picks. Just for fun. We'll just do these quick. But I would take the Lions Plus 6 hosting Minnesota. what would the wise guy say?

I'm going to give you a big disagreement there. Another injury situation. I know this isn't like sexy radio, sexy podcast, but if you want to win, these injuries matter. So the strongest thing Detroit has had recently is defensive line. Remember, they traded the Giants for Snacks Harrison. I love to say snacks, first of all. But number two is the idea that, oh my gosh,

if you look at that D-line, they had one of the better lines, D-lines in the NFL. What's happened just in the last week or two, one of their key guys, his last name is Hand, out for the season, and now Snacks Harrison is doubtful to play. So they had three good interior guys that goes to one, and what did Minnesota commit to with the new O.C. last week, running the ball. So if Snacks is out. Minnesota's healthy, by the way, too. Well, yeah. And remember, Minnesota has a scenario calling where they get Monday off if they win the game.

Yeah. The player said, coach, we don't want Monday off. Imagine that intensity late in the year. They practiced on Monday. All right. I would also take the Eagles minus one and a half against the Texans. I don't trust the Texans. You know, these late season games, I just don't trust them. They don't feel today as good as they were three weeks ago. What would the wise guys say there? I tell you, this is just split down the middle. I could try to get. give you one, but let me just give you quickly the two big factors. One, I think people are overreacting to the Eagles' really impressive win with Foles. On the other hand, Houston has a bad O line for a good team. Yes, terrible. And Phleys strength on defense.

It's up front. Fletcher Cox eats at good old lines. That is a negative for Houston. That's a huge part for this. Michael Bennett's playing well. Fletcher Cox is one of the top ten players in the league. Agreed. Yeah.

No, he means that. dominant. So it's a split game for the wise guys. Yes. Well, that's good. All right, we'll talk soon. We're still going to do some of this stuff on Saturdays for the playoffs, but this is my last regular season Blazing 5. RJ, love having you? Absolutely. And Carl, if you got a second,

the listeners might be interested. We are number two right now in the biggest picking contest ever. It's literally $640,000, $5,000 to enter. Win or take all? 640. Is this online or where is this? This is just on my Twitter, at RJ

Vegas, I will tweet out the standings and the five picks. It's a casino, the Westgate here in town is doing it. Wow, that's a great call. And you're number two? We got one guy ahead of us by one game, right? So if we win this thing, I might be a little hungover for that Friday part. Or just take that guy out. Take it to the desert.

Well, good luck to you. Thank you. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline.

And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clever Taylor the Fourth. And on my book, podcast, The Clivert Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

What? Quarterback on office blue 42. Hey, rec, my mama want you to wave at her. What? Where's she at? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the. Clifford Show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

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