The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Death of the Underdog

Episode Date: May 14, 2025

This week marks the 7th anniversary of the repeal of PASPA, ushering in the widescale legalization of American sports betting we enjoy today. This week on the show, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive into a subject we’ve talked a lot about on this show the last couple years, especially this past NFL season: the decline of the underdog for bettors across multiple sports. Since the repeal of PASPA, and especially in the NFL, historically profitable underdog situations have become quite hte opposite. To help us dive into the numbers behind this trend, Evan Abrams, statistical maven and Action Network Director of Research & Media, joins the show. #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slica Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on on TikTok. Winning on Clay is an art. The rallies are relentless. And at the French Open, only the toughest survive. I'd know. I competed there for decades. Join me, Renee Stubbs, on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast for no nonsense breakdowns of the biggest matches, the toughest players, and the moments that define Roland Garris. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lerner Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface.

Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast, part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. Today, I'm joined. As always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional. Simon, Hunter.

Hello, Simon. Chad, what a magical week. release of the schedule. It's one of my favorite weeks of the year for a football fan. Simon, I know that over the weekend, you had planned on playing in a poker tournament that began at 11 p.m. On Mother's Day. On Mother's Day, which is fine. Like, you know, your mom was probably long past sleeping and you had done your duty as a son throughout the day to honor your mother. did you play in the poker tournament? How did it go?

It did. So it was the final table. That's why I was at such a weird late hour. And there was 10 of us. I unfortunately took 8th, but going in, I was a short stack. And I basically,

I'm a weird person with numbers chat, as you know, and 7-4 suited is my lucky favorite hand. I think I was the fourth blind in. So I was maybe two guys already been knocked out. And then I was at this point to small blind. So I'm already invested and get the 7-4 suited, had to shove.

Guy had pocket tens and basically got very lucky on the river. I basically flop trips and this guy Rivers, the 10. So it's fun. It's gambling. No. Yeah. But it was just a classic B2 where as soon as I saw his hand and I got the trips on the flop, I go, well, this is a dead hand.

I'm going to lose this. There's no way. It never, you never want to flop it. But yeah, it's something I love doing the offseason. And we'll see, World Series of Poker. I'm getting the itch. I got 10K to burn. I might end up down in Vegas

and playing on that tournament. We'll see. So when you saw the river, like what went, like, how quickly? I already grabbed my bag, Chad. I was already gone. I literally. Yeah.

thanked everybody. As soon as I flopped it, I thanked everybody and grabbed my bag. And, yeah. So I was already walking off. And it's just, especially at that time. So I think at this point, it might have been just getting to midnight or just before.

And I was like, all right, perfect. I'll get home just in time to get some rest and hop on the pot. I mean, yeah, you were barely there. You were there for less than an hour then. Exactly. Exactly. I spent more time in the sports book hanging out watching the games and I did actually playing on the tournament.

I will look. Speaking of sports book, we know that, and we got a big show that we're going to get to, but there's some housekeeping that I want to clear off. early this morning. We're recording this on Monday afternoon. Early this morning, we got the Eagles Cowboys opening night matchup. We have the Dallas Cowboys, seven point underdogs on the road against the Super Bowl champion, Philadelphia Eagles. The money line number is plus 240 for the Cowboys. This is germane to the show because the show is going to be a lot about underdogs and pricing and some

of the trends that have been changing and it speaks to a lot of the work that we've talked about a couple times on the show throughout the year but a lot of stuff I've been focusing on and how you've been thinking about it too and Evan's going to be on to break it down for us but before we dig more deeply into that intro immediately plus seven I bet that I bet the plus 240 I know you did too Yeah, that's just an insane opening number, but it's the respect that Philadelphia deserves and just the season that Dallas is coming off of, right? So it's all public perception. We talk about time about week one lines.

And DAC being disrespectful in a divisional game like he is in this spot, that's a nice number, especially where you think about the fact that, you know, Kellynne Moore did leave. Like the Eagles are going to learn a new offense. And this is week one and Gieland Hertz in a new offense. So pretty interesting that the fact that they. they hung this number the way they did. And, you know, I'm looking at it from the standpoint of what you are. It's a big number.

We're betting it really early. It is May. But me and chat are taking a position because you expect this to, what, go to five and a half, four and a half maybe perhaps by the night they kick off. So we want to take a position here. And if it goes the other way, even better. Like I love if we get to that night chat and we get an eight, eight and a half on this number because so many people are throwing their parlays and teasers starting their week off

for the Eagles at this number. So yeah, it's just a really fun opening number. Great opening night. I think it's the first time the Eagles have opened the season against the Cowboys at home since 2000. So we're talking about 25 years here. So pretty excited as an Eagles fan. That opening night, I'll definitely be there Thursday night.

No work for Simon. I'll be out drinking, celebrating what happened last year and watching this game. Look, I think that what's really interesting about this is it's such a indicator. of recency bias. Yeah. Like, obviously everyone is all hyped on the Eagles

and everyone is looking at what happened with the Cowboys and they're forgetting that Dak Prescott is going to be back. And that it's not like Dak Prescott is a bad quarterback. Right. And it's not like this team won't be competitive and it's not like Micah Parsons won't be back. You know, the Cowboys had so many injuries last year on that defensive line at some point they were playing almost nobody.

And then Dak obviously was out for much of the year. So this just feels like way too big of a number. I know it's May. I know we're not getting overextended on the Cowboys' seven-point underdogs on the road in the division. But geez, geez almighty, that is a hefty price if you want to be betting on the Eagles or a really nice discount if you want to bet on the Cowboys. I bet both you can't get it in the action app yet, but I bet both the Cowboys plus seven. and the Cowboys on the Money Line at plus 240.

All right. This all leads in perfectly to what we're going to dive into today. And like I said, we've talked a lot on this show the last couple of years. When we discuss every single week in this past NFL off season, the decline of the underdog for betters, especially in the NFL, although across multiple sports. And this has been especially true since the repeal of the Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act, aka PASPA, in 2018. It's also been a real business story.

And I've mentioned this a few times on the show. The past six to nine months, Draft Kings Fandle, the two biggest operators, the biggest percentage of market share amongst all online sports books, have reported in Q4 and in Q1 now that there are, their earnings were less than expected, their revenue was less than expected because of continued customer-friendly outcomes. Last fall was an incredible year for favorites to continue to cover, which is bad for operators. March Madness, it was all shock, right? The number one seeds, all went through to the final four. That was bad for business for the operators. We've seen a lot of

those customer-friendly outcomes. What in the devil is going on to help us dive into the numbers, the trends, unpack how we can sort of think about this, our statistical maven, a man who always shows his work, action network director of research and media, Evan Abrams. Welcome back, Evan. What's going on, fellas? I mean, truthfully, the only thing I got to say before we dive into this, the two biggest tournaments between like the NFL regular season and March Madness were just so slanted

towards favorites that this was kind of predictable that this was going to happen at least the conversation because the things that everyone bet on, favorites were just crushing. And then Chad, you and I have talked about futures, I feel like forever. Feels like underdogs very rarely have been coming through when it comes to like actually winning titles. And the data is just crazy there when you talk about taking like the teams under 10 to 1, etc. So conversation should be interesting. So listen, I've mentioned that I'm working on a book a couple times on the show.

One of the things that I'm doing for the book is trying to figure out how to unpack what happened last year and not overreact to it and build something for the coming year that I can then track on a week-to-week basis and write about in the book. And a lot of my research the past few months, which has been really fun, has been what is the model that I might need to build. And a lot of what I've come to the conclusion about is that there is no super stat. There is no analysis that can be done that isn't already being done by 8,000 analysts who are thin slicing advanced metrics when it comes to the NFL. Everyone's looking at success rate. Everyone's looking at EPA. Everyone's looking at, you know, explosiveness. If you

really honestly like one of the best models might be the luck rankings knowing how they create it. And so, and Simon and I talk about that every week. But pricing has become really interesting. We just talked about it with the Cowboys and the Eagles, right? The Cowboys Seven Point Dogs, that feels like an exorbitant price to pay if you want to bet on the Eagles. So it's becoming more and more interesting. One of the things I had asked Evan to do is to go through some pricing models. based on the research we have available in BetLab.

So I know, Evan, you're going to sort of certainly talk about that today. But explain like as a thesis for this episode. What does the death of the underdog mean exactly? I just think so. I mean, PASPA, May 14th, 2018. Since that moment, I think we've seen a little bit of a shift. And I tried to do it in three simple bullets. So bullet one would be widespread legalization.

of sports betting beginning in late 2018, 2019, kind of changes the game a little bit. And that leads to underdogs, starting off actually performing well early during this PASPA era of new legalization across many states in the U.S. So about two to three years, you see an increase in ATS win percentage

for certain underdogs across, you know, some of the sports, the majority of one, of them. So in the NFL, this also coincided with huge favorites and larger spreads, at least initially. We were seeing, you know, 17, a lot more of those bigger numbers. And then what I think we're actually seeing now, and I kind of call it the last like two and a half years or so, is again, some of those larger spreads, but favorites starting to cover those bigger numbers. Juicier prices also tend to be vanishing.

And I think that has something to do with the lines we're seeing out there, some of the margins between the lines, the vague, things of that nature. But I think it's happening both with single games. And it's also happening with some of the whole percentages in the futures market. So to me, that is a one, two, three of what we're kind of labeling like the death of the underdog, which is a very blanket statement when you consider it. I like looking at the major six sports. So you say, at least in the U.S., when it's, you know, the four major plus the two college. Because I feel like that, at least from an American point of view, gets the most action.

So that's at least where I started the experiment here. But to me, those are your pillars kind of walking into this, guys. Simon, do you agree or disagree with my take that it's getting harder and harder to find a statistical analytical edge when creating power ratings and that more and more we should be leaning into price? There's a lot of ways to go about this, Chad. I would say that if someone has an edge, you'd never know. Even if I have an edge, I would never tell you, brother, even though I love you to death. It's just the nature of the business. You're my BFF.

I know. And that's just the way it is, bro. It's, it's a different world where like guys, guys have had edges for 30, 40 years. You could say they tinker with it and they're always updating it. But they would never tell you. And they and you can, you know, give them many drinks as you want. And you could be like, well, this guy's full of shit. But then at the end of the day, this guy's a long term winning better.

And clearly you know something is doing something right. But I mean, just at the basis we're getting to, though, it's, it does feel like we have, we've had, we're in a weird run here, Chad. Like, what you're just talking about of like these favorites. I mean, hell, the best underdog bet of the year was a dude named Bobby from Chicago that became the Pope. Like, it's, it's a weird year. It's a weird year. So, you know, it's back to back years of this of like, you know, we love long shots. We love these. You didn't see it coming. And, you know, the one year, I feel like we really had a. chance at that was that bengles run right with joe burrow like evan kept telling us like 150 to 1 i knew some guys sitting on those tickets that would have really shocked the system but it didn't happen right it was like mad stafford the rams team they end up did they end up winning it and you know like every year comes on here he talks about these favorites in the NFL like chad's making this bet every

year you know the top 20 or top you know 25 to 1 teams and and below and chad's been winning on it because it's been pretty chalking the NFL so Evan diving in the numbers here. I'm really interested here all of it because we know because we're better, chat, so we've lost the money. So we're basically about to get fed our medicine about what we need to adjust

and what it's been like the last couple years here in all the major sports. Right. So Evan, lay out, you know, we've got, and you and I discussed this, this was core to some of the investigation that I asked you to start thinking about a couple months ago, layout.

And there's three sort of, basic examples is the best way to describe it, of you immediately recognize where you think the market will be off. And those are the ones that you attack, these archetypes of underdogs, mispriced circumstances that lead you to immediately want to bet those teams that have been causing problems the last couple of years. Give us the three best examples. Start with number one. Okay, so system one is simply just bad underdogs off of a bad loss. And I think when going through all three of these, these are just normal situations that most betters historically have just kind of looked for. Do they blindly bet them? Of course not. But usually over time, they end up turning

an ROI. And historically, yes, but recently no. So let me start here. Bad dogs off of a bad loss. So this is team with the win percentage under 40% coming off a loss of 20 plus points. Pretty simple. So since 2003, and that is, we're going to use that number, that year a lot, that is the BetLabs database in its entirety. So since 2003, betting those spots has a positive ROI of just under 7%. Blanket. But last two seasons, 21, 24 and 1 ATS, negative 10.3% ROI, it is the worst two-year stretch

that we've tracked in that span. So works long term, hasn't worked recently. So let me just keep rolling here because I'll do two more and then we can kind of react. Why don't want to? I don't want to react? You want to go? I don't think I can hold my time. Okay.

Go ahead. That's fucking insane because that's like, that is the A1 example that anybody who has done this for any length of time looks at. Give me the bad team coming off a bad loss. It's going to be a great discount on their next week's price. Yeah, get a free three points. Yes. Like, that has been a moneymaker. To Evans point, 7% over the past 20 plus seasons.

But negative 10% ROI the past two years. Simon, did you realize it was that steep of a drop-off? I knew just because early in the year, I remember at one point, we were like one to 25 betting dogs. Yeah, I remember going through it in the show. Right. And you went through and I did as well and like looking at the dogs we were taking. That really honestly saved me a ton of money going forward last season because it wasn't.

Like there was a bunch of lots. Like even the Panthers, eventually we swore them off. And we had a nice break where it was like, I don't care they're giving us four points here that they shouldn't be given us that, you know, the Panthers are just getting that bump. what Evan He was talking about is really alarming because it just factors into these last two seasons how bad the quarterback play has been to me on these really bad teams.

And I think that's a lot of what I dove into this season. Off season is just the really poor quarterback play and the shortened fields and how much, it really is that simple when you dive into it, how big of a key it is where these teams have confidence in their quarterback to go forward on fourth and two, fourth and three, and there's other teams who just simply punt it on fourth and three, fourth and two.

So what Evan here is really making that stand out where it's like, you know, some of these teams usually coming off a bad loss, the team rallies the next game. And I feel like that's what Evan's talking with, historical data. The last two years, I mean, these teams just lay down and die. And like that's the craziest part. It's like you're getting these free points and it's not mattering. And the books, it feels like what I've been saying here is the books are getting caught laying these really bad numbers and the public's taking advantage of it.

Is two years enough of a sample size? Oh, I don't think so. I mean, I think we've built these systems, models, like different things, trigger points, let's call them for you, Chad, just to kind of look at to start the season. I think we're in wait and C mode. Like, if this system, which is 7% starts off, you know, 2 and 8, you know, I think we might have an understanding of something coming up. But I think this is a very critical year to kind of seeing what these rule changes and even some of these bad quarterback play, which I think, Simon nailed it, what that impact has. I think one of the thing that's important here, these are all based off the closing lines.

So, like, in this type of system where you're talking about a bad dog off a bad loss, like you're assuming that line's going to close higher than it opened because everyone's going to want the other team. So, you know, these teams losing in that sense, where you're talking about the closing line, which is probably a better line, is also pretty shocking to me, to be honest. And, Chad, it feels like Evan here is talking about how it's not enough data yet, but it's also he's telling people that you just can't keep doing it the same old way this there is there could be something happening here that you need to pay attention to and that he's diving on numbers here and that's

that's what i find so interested about it where it's like you know there's always times too with if i have a number on a dog that i like and the luck rankings back it up because it's a team that's been unlucky catching a big number we always talk to it i blindly bet those numbers now i am going to take a second and think about the quarterback matchup the coaching style and little things that I would never, when I'm in a certain situation where I just blindly bet a big dog. So what Evan is saying here, I am going to take into account because that is pretty alarming data that it's changed that much. And it's really coinciding with a lot of these rule changes the NFL has been doing these last couple of seasons. All right, Evan, number two.

Okay, so this is fading the bounce back. Bad team versus good team who is off of a big loss. So again, team with a win percentage under 40%. playing a team with a 60% win percentage, coming off a loss of two touchdowns or more. So basically, you're fading the inevitable bounce back, which most people would normally try to buy into. So since 2003,

betting these spots, positive ROI of just over 6%. So relatively similar to the one we just talked about, which was about 7%. Now, last four seasons in this spot, 20 and 25 against the spread, a negative 14.7 ROI, also the worst stretch in the last 22, 20%. 23 years. So again, kind of talking about a very similar scenario where, I mean, that bad team,

which you would look at probably getting a larger number on the close versus the open, still not covering that number nearly at all. And last four seasons, even bigger samples. So you're kind of eating into that Paspa era as well. Yeah. That's fascinating because that's another one that has almost been an auto play for years, right? Like you immediately, like, identify that because we think we're smarter than the average Joe. We would bet that because the Joe is going to come in and bet the favorite no matter what.

And now all of a sudden, and it's not just two years, four years. That's like almost insidious. You know, if you're not paying enough attention, you keep doing it, not really realizing that it's been eating away over a longer period of time. That's a scary one. I think we're hitting a curve here. It's almost like we're trying to figure out if these are going to extend or if there's going to be some sort of like buyback in the market to the mean where we kind of go back

to what we were. I don't know if that's going to happen. So, Simon, what your thought? Evans made me want to hibernate. I want to disappear now for like three years, not come back and just time the market right. and just be rolling in all these dogs because like Evan saying here it's going to hit a breaking point right the books they got the same numbers they have the same data they will eventually adjust their

models were adjust but I keep telling Chad we're in a weird time period where these this switchup is happening with the favorites and we're breaking into AI models which is a whole another conversation but we're in a really weird period here of like okay favorites are doing really well the public is you know obviously doing really well the books are trying to go against it but the books are are spending an absurd amount of money right now trying to get ahead of AI models, especially in the sports betting world. So it's a very unique time period of sports betting where a lot of moving parts are happening. Evan here is just making me even doubt my model even more because it's like, what Evan's saying here is like, I keep thinking I'm getting free points and I'm not. They're kind of

suckering us in. And it's been that way the last couple years. And I definitely have not taken position on certain spots, right? Bounce back spots, quote unquote. But there are sort of certain teams that it's like, okay, if Lamar has a bad loss and he's in a bounce back spot and you're getting the rare opportunity of him as a dog, those are like, okay, that's a smash spot. That's a spot you really want to lean into despite if your numbers are against it. You want to do what Evans talking about here, which is like you throw all the data out and you just historical data tells you good quarterback, good team after a bad loss, you expect them to bounce back. Bad quarterback on a bad team, Evans's telling you, they don't, they're not

bouncing back right now. So that's something. I don't have to check on me and Chad during the regular season. Just keeping the back of our mind where it's like, you can't just blindly bet these bad quarterbacks, man. They're just not doing it. Whatever is going on in college and the next step to the NFL is not translating like it was in the 2010s, clearly. I feel like there's been a beacon that has been buried in the dirt,

and somehow we've been missing it and playing by the old rules, and it's slowly, slowly been changing. And last year, maybe all three of, of the, including the next one Evan is going to talk about, of these sort of classic underdog play spots, all converged to conspire against us. That's made us unpack everything in an entirely different way, whereas maybe there's been spots where one or two of them,

but not on a consecutive week, so it made us keep thinking. And last year it just felt like every single week and it's made it look at these now. Okay. But this is good for you. This is good for us in a lot of ways, Chad, because it does make you look at yourself and your models

and all different things in a different perspective. And like, I'll never forget that year, the Eagles won that Super Bowl with Doug Peterson and the RPO's. That really messed with my motto with a lot of offenses that were just super simple and basic. But the RPO was really working really well and they brought into the league. And the same thing with a couple teams in that year, so I'm going for it more often on fourth down. So it's like, you know, you're always adjusting.

What we're talking about here is like I don't want to over adjust. Like you're saying, we don't want to over adjust because of, these last couple years and these anomalies. But like you're saying, we need to really take into account here that these dogs just ain't hitting like they used to. And there's a bigger point here that we need to dive into that we can't just say, well, it'll come back around. It's like, well, maybe it won't.

This could be a big change in NFL and we need to adjust to it. So, yeah, I'm really glad we're doing it because it's something I've already dive into a little bit, but hearing these raw numbers from Evan, it's pretty alarming. The clarity is pretty astonishing. All right, Evan, what's number three? Yeah, death of the underdog, I feel like almost is just, a tale of caution at the moment. But here's system three. So, and this is almost as much of a staple as the first one. It's basically just betting good teams off of huge losses. So we just talked

about the bad team and good team. Forget all that. This is just team with a win percentage, over 60% coming off a loss of 20 plus points, which is basically doesn't happen a ton, but this is, you know, the bounce back spot, the classic. So since 2003, betting these spots has a positive of RUI of just under 16%. And since 2020, it is 13 and 16 ATS. And it was 0 and 4 ATS last season. So a literal reversal of fortune. And I think this is literally the worst teams in the NFL,

basically on the other side of this potentially and you wanting to back them. And I think you're kind of hitting a bit of a brick wall. But the 13 and 16 since 2020, when you have a 16% ROI since 2003, and that's 16% still now, including that 13 and 16, just to show how great it was beforehand. It's just a change of times. It's crazy.

That is a crazy number. Like the sample size obviously isn't that big. Yeah. 29 games, just not that big. It's not a big enough number to make you want to change how you think about these things philosophically. But 0 and 4 last year. Like, Simon, I guarantee we went 0 and 4 on those bets. Right?

Like, we can go back and look. But, like, I feel like we are seeing all of the losses that we had last year just from these three systems that Evan is talking about. Definitely a Carolina loss. But I told you, like, I went back through him. I still can't leave how we avoided Tennessee. It feels like a couple of those two is the Tennessee games. But, yeah, it's, man, that's astonishing, though. I mean, is that the first time Evan, you could find the historical data that there was a year that it just simply went 0-1-4 or 0-5?

I could check, but there's just no chance you had that type of percentage year to year and you would have no ATS wins. So I'm pretty sure it is the first, at least in that spot. I think the scary thing is if I took that 60%, so teams with a win percentage over 60%. And instead of a 20 point loss, I took it down to 14 or I took it to nine, which was like more than one possession, I think you'd see similar data in terms of just the evening out of the numbers and it not being so easy to back those teams. So I just think there's more into the handicap

than maybe there was a little while ago. I think there's just a lot going on and also a lot more money in the market. I think legalization has brought in tons of new types of betters that I think might be adjusting this a little bit. That's at least my opinion. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers,

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on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs' tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening. happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jen she went. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted.

She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds, I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There's a lot more money in the market. How is pricing impacting all of this? Are bookmakers getting smarter at pricing these things,

and we're not adjusting? Yeah, I mean, I wrote down these three nuggets, pillars, however you want to call them, but I think it's more of a dynamic pricing. Like the odds are getting worse quicker, and I think the adjustment on players is already kind of being baked in. Like we've seen some crazy stuff in the NBA where a guy gets ruled out and like the other players' props aren't moving like they used to.

Because that's something that used to be a bit of an edge, which is, you know, okay, we're making the assumption on A, so let's get ahead of B. And that's also even in terms of like news betting is kind of being already baked in as they're making the assumptions that we are. And I also think a little bit of the, a lot of these books aren't giving you unders, they're not giving you nose, which is kind of bringing about like the exchanges and the different companies that are kind of giving you both options that are getting more popular. But I think that's part of the problem is, you know, you're betting into minus 122s, 125s, 128s. And that just never was the case. What about on NFL spreads?

When I think about pricing, I'm not just thinking about, you know, what's the juice. I'm thinking about, is it at six and a half, is it at seven, is it at seven and a half? Do we think that they are just getting better at creating lines that are harder to bet into? I think probably so. I mean, I think, you know, the NFL is an interesting beast just because of the amount of popularity and attention. and money that goes into it versus all the other sports. So I don't know if it's necessarily like, you know, would you have gotten seven and a half or eight a little while ago

while now maybe it's, you know, seven or six and a half? I don't know. I'm curious Simon's opinion here because I feel like when we bet into this every week, the favorites still get all the money, the favorites still get the late action, except now the favorites are covering when we used to feel like the smart guys and the dog used to get the back door or get the cover in those situations. It's just not happening anymore.

Yeah, I've definitely, I've learned, especially since the legalization, not to you let lines scare me off that, to me are so stupid, don't make any sense, I just have to live and die and take it. And the biggest one that jumped out to me will always be that Washington commanders line against Detroit.

That line touched 10 in that playoff game. And this is with Detroit, with all those injuries to their defense. And that stinks where I was going to just hammer that number nonstop. I was like, this is a really bad number. But I got scared off because of the year, we were just coming off with all the favorites and how the books kept putting these bad lines. And that was one of those games where I luckily just leaned into my model and really trust it.

And I think even by Thursday show, you could hear my confidence on this show really build. But I didn't have that Sunday night Monday. Like I really didn't where it's like, what am I missing here? Why is this 10? How are the commanders 10 points worse in the Detroit team that all those injuries to their defense? And, you know, that's, that was one of those situations where normal year, dogs are hitting well for me. That would have been a big six figure game. Like I really would have gone heavy on that game knowing my model backs it up.

The old timers I talked to are telling me this is a great spot for this Washington team. Like it all lined up with it and the data lined up. But just because you're coming off of like that's been so interested in me that the books, you know, to me, they look like they're laying really, really interesting numbers and strong numbers where the public don't even think that way. Right. They're reminded if they see seven and a half, they just tease it. They don't care that it's seven and a half. We're me and Chad see the seven and a half and our eyes light up. We're getting a hook on a dog we like at a really good number.

And of course we got slaughtered on those numbers. Like we got killed on taking those good numbers that we think are good. But like we're talking about here, the books, they're not going to lose forever. Like that's why I keep, especially friends I have in my regular life, regular people,

best year they've ever had. Some guys over 60%. Some guys I know 70%, especially in their pickpools. Like best year they ever had taking these favorites. And I told them all, get out, retire, just walk away. Like this is, it just is not going to happen again. They're like, well, how do you know?

And it's just what Evan's talking about here with historical data that we've never seen it before. So yeah, we could get caught here and it could because of the rule changes, but it is interesting when you're talking about. We keep having these games and Evan's talking about here where it's like, how do I not feel like we're getting free points here and how do we not take it? Especially when you have a model back in it where it's like, this is off by four or five points. I mean, another one that jumps out to me is that. the championship of the college football finals, you know, Notre Dame should have been a big underdog. What was it, Evan? Was it nine and a half?

I think so something close to that. Something like eight. Some of the smartest guys I know bet for a living on college football had that at three and a half four. A fluky touchdown at the end of the game. I think it landed on 10 or something like it didn't cover the number, whatever it is. Notre Dame didn't cover. These guys threw a lot of Joe Public like like assholes, right? That was an easy bet taking the superior team against the Notre Dame.

their game team that shouldn't have even been in that game where you got they don't realize how lucky they got how models historically long term will always be right in those type of spot so it's across all sports where it's like you're getting a ton of extra value on these dogs and these bounces keep going the public way at the end of these games and it's we're trying to put we're like we're breaking it all down here today and we're trying to put numbers on it there's so many of these games where it's just not going our way and i chat i talked to you about our regular season it's like how many weeks do we have two and three? I mean, we were two and one in how many weeks

heading into that Sunday night show, and we ended in the week two and three. So it's like, are we terrible at this? Should I retire? Do I just simply suck at sports betting? Or do I need to adjust my models and realize some of those games too are just bad bounces? So it's hard not to over adjust, but at the same time, it's like, man, these last couple years with these favorites having, like you're talking

about here, man, it's spooking the shit out of me. It really is. It's like week one and two, I got no problem of betting these dogs. Like that historically is always going to be good for us. Even last year, the year of the favorites, it was still good for us. But after that, man, shit. Favorites in the public, chat. Are we switching up?

Are we going to live our name, the favorites? Is this about to be the new show? Well, that's what I mean. Like the numbers, every single time I step away from the show or like, and I'm just in my head thinking about how this should go or looking at some of the bet labs data or building new models that are just based on when to bet how lines move,

those kinds of things. I start to feel good about where we are going to go next season. And then, by the way, I'm seeing all of this new stuff that Evan is laying out for the first time right now as we're talking about it. So the fact that there has been a slow, decline that last year popped, but we had not really recognized for some of our very safe,

consistent plays that have gone against the public for years, that's alarming and that scares me about everything that I've been thinking about building for the past three months. So, yeah, I'm with you. I'm kind of freaking out right now. And I might have to go back to square won at this point. That's how I feel about it. The only thing I'll say is, the only thing I'll say is this. I think the most glaring stat, so we talk about ATS a lot just because that's the contest, that's the show.

Like, that's kind of how this was built. But I think this is the one that kind of got me a little bit. So Moneyline regular season favorites were positive from an R.O.I. perspective in 2023 and 2024. And that was actually the first time we had ever seen that happen in back-to-back years. I went back to about 2000 in terms of I went. I looked even further in terms of data. So the fact that and money line favorites take so much to become positive because of,

you know, one loss takes you back a lot in terms of the VIG. So to me, back to back years of positivity on the Moneyline ROI perspective and favorites in the NFL, that is a bit of a turn for me because I usually see, okay, a favor covers here, a favor covers there. But for that juice to turn positive was a little, alarming to me. I like to bet underdogs on the money line and it was one of the worst years you could ever think of for that. Feeling great that I got the Cowboys at plus seven on the money line of plus two fours. Well, Hertz is going to, you know, tush push first drive. We're going to all feel great. It's going to be fantastic. All right. The back door, which we love game planning for,

feels like it's been closing. What do the numbers tell us? Yeah. So underdogs trailing by 10 plus points at any point of the game, covered at a 21% rate last season. The year prior, it was 20%, so pretty consistent. That was the first time in over a decade. We saw back-to-back years, though, of that low of a percentage. So in terms of where we're used to, a team falls behind, like we've seen in the NBA, what feels like a million times this postseason, and ends up coming back and either wins the game or covers the game or some crazy statistic,

just isn't happening in the NFL to the degree I think we're used to. Now, it's probably the difference of about 5%, 4%, depending on the average per season overall year to year. But when you talk about the last two years and the lack of comebacks, I think it's part of this story because I think that's what we're used to. We're used to those numbers being inflated and getting more inflated as the week goes by and then a majority of the time or a decent percentage of the time,

them coming through the back door and it coming into the winning percentage of underdogs at the end of the season. And at 20%, you're just not seeing that. So I think it's a part of the story. Well, look, Simon, you just said something that is either hope or false hope, which is

the books don't lose. They always make money, right? And so even like what we're talking about, about with Draft Kings and Fanduel and their earnings calls and revenue reporting and those kinds of things and changing projections and outlooks. Like, is this a false hope that we're hanging our hat on that it's going to turn back around or does everybody going to have to recalibrate? Oh, man. Like Evan said, this is a defining season in many ways, but I feel like it's defining decade in many ways, right? This is going to be a slow burn for

for me and you know like I joke we all at time chat this isn't a job that I know guys most guys that do this job eventually get burned out they find something else and they go down a different path because sports betting is so hard and you have to consistently be tinkering and updating your model and you can't really get lazy and stuck in your ways like you're talking on especially here and you know it's it's not as simple as we simply just bet the dog especially in those spots but our hard our hardest job chat is we have to pick five games every week so one or two of those games, we're going to bet it because we love the number, the models back, we love the spot. We have to start really challenging ourselves that is this actually a good spot? Is this

what we want to be doing where Evans giving us these numbers here that's telling you that, you know, it's kind of a favorite's world. And because of these rule changes, why wouldn't the league want to benefit the offenses? And that kind of me, to me is what's jumping out here where it's like, Evans telling you, if you get a 10 point lead, it's really tough for these teams to catch up because the offense of these other teams are just so dynamic now. We're like, even if we do get that backdoor score, who's to say that team's not gonna get down there on a short field and score their own field goal

or touchdown? And once again, we're not covering. So yeah, this is a show I'm definitely gonna be listening back to to get more of these numbers from Evan because it's a good reminder too to play during the season to ourselves because it's changed, Chad. We always joke, we used to force ourselves to put one favorite in.

We now might have to flip and force ourselves to put maybe two dogs in and try to go three or something but like you said I don't want to over adjust yet but I did make big adjustments heading to the playoffs and people saw it like I was taking more favorites in the playoffs and I had to really be pushed to want to take a dog I mean I took both chalk home favorites in the a FC championship game and I heard a lot of shit that week it's like you think it's just gonna be that easy egos and the chiefs and that's the way it's been for the public people it's it's really

been that easy so yeah hearing these numbers get broken down, you know, my fear is, Chad, that I over adjust. And like Evan just said, coming back around this season, me and you miss that golden whale. Like, that's what I don't want to, I don't want to miss here where I don't think we will. I think if we see dogs doing really well, especially midway through the season, week 12 and 11, you know, we'll say, okay, let's go back to what we were doing. That was so good for us the previous years, where last year I remember in week 12 and 11, me, you were looking at each other being like, should we adjust? I hate taking favorites what are we supposed to do here and all of a sudden I think Evan we had a run there

of five six straight weeks of favorites covering in the middle of the season which just not happened because that's what I keep trying to tell me about the sports books they the NFL is their baby this is their most important sport the money that comes in on this sport isn't it's it's out of this world compared to other sports right this is the driver of the market tell I go to the sports book all the time in my off season the difference between the NFL season and other other seasons is is palpable. So yeah, Chad, this is, I don't want to over adjust, but I'm telling you, the more I talk to bookmakers, it feels like they're, they're feeling confident, they're not over worried about it. Maybe we should do the same, but it's not in my nature not to be worried

and not to freak out about it. My feeling on anxiety generally is that it is, it is the most powerful tool to improving, honestly, because if you use it properly, then you're going to do the work you need to do to get yourself prepared and put yourself in a better position to succeed, if you use it negatively and it keeps you up at night and just paralyzes you and, you know, shuts you down and makes you not be able to function, it's terrible. But I actually love the power of anxiety in this particular context when it comes to work and things that you can control because it will fuel us to make sure that we're not doing the wrong things, whatever we think that will be when we get into the regular season. Evan, we've just talked about a bunch

of different areas where we have historically focused. Can you give us some examples where other sort of conventional gambling wisdom is now losing better as money? So, I think a classic to anytime, long-time NFL gambler is betting bad teams off a loss, which we kind of already talked about a little bit, but this is just a little more simple. So I looked at all teams that met this betting criteria, teams with a losing record who are underdogs,

who were just coming off a loss in general. Classic ugly dog situation. If you bet every team in that situation last two seasons, you'd have a negative ROI of almost 9%. Two seasons, 9%, pretty damn bad. That is the worst two-year stretch, and our BetLabs database again since that 2003 number. So again, pretty simple here.

That is teams of the losing record, underdogs, awful loss. Spread doesn't matter. Those are just the three criteria. You'd be down almost 9%. And if you go even deeper there. So really ugly dogs, six plus point dogs. So instead of just underdogs, you're looking at dogs of six points or more. It honestly gets even worse.

And the thing is, you want to look at least I did. I looked at money line results. So between 2013 and 2018, which is basically pre-PASPA, minus 6.1% ROI, 22.9% straight up. So that is 2013 to 2018. I'll say that again. Minus 6.1% ROI, 23% straight up. Since 2019, it is minus 18% ROI and 18% straight up. So that is about three times worse on the ROI and about 5% less on the straight up win percentage.

And we're just talking about blanketed here. Big underdogs, awful loss, bad team. And that is pretty much what a lot of us tend to at least look at early week to kind of filter, flag, you know, trigger some signals. And they are just getting absolutely bamboozled at the moment. So I felt like that was a good signal of what the heck. is happening here. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news.

What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.

We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you

funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-heartedly. Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really takes

to win on clay. Genschen win. I mean, she went down in three to Roebuckina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French, me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck.

Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast, Superhuman, documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Yeah, I actually wonder the PASPO line of demarcation and legalization, We've talked a lot about the public getting smarter about how much more money is coming into the market, how the bookmakers are becoming much more sort of retail books, right?

And they probably think less and less about what professional betters are doing or moving on faces or moving off of a $500 bet even if it's someone else is betting $10,000 on the other side, 500 is smart money. I think that's having a much bigger impact on how we think about our business, Simon, than maybe we've been accounting for. A little bit. I would say the biggest change, too, for me, would be, you know, when I was living in Vegas,

there were just so few guys who did this for a living, especially bet on the NFL for a living because it's such a hard sport to do. Now, Chad, it's a whole different world. There's guys who I never would have taken serious being the douchebag I was back then, being like, that's not a real better. Now, no, this dude's legit. Like, he's putting the work. You know, I see him there all the time in the sports book.

The more I talk to them, the more I respect them. And this time goes along. You're like, okay, it's a new wave of this younger generation. People my age, I should say, that have come to this market with their own computer models where it just was never like that, right? You never really saw it like that in Vegas. And I like it. like you're saying, it's changed the market in a lot of ways.

And a lot of things we joked about, especially when they legalize it of, you know, there's going to be a lot of games where we get a ton of free points. We've been getting that show, but it's not been coming through. And I especially would have loved having to do just primetime games because, you know, some of my best runs have been those under the unders on these primetime games. Like I've just had a really good run, especially since the legalization of sports betting. just simply betting unders in these prime time games. And we had that one year, was that two years ago, Evan,

where we were like 70% betting the under in primetime games. It was crazy. But I remember last year it came back around, right? We had a bunch of overs in primetime games. So like we can just keep talking about it. It's like, once again, I don't want to over adjust, but we're seeing the public, even in there betting these lines up, these offenses have been coming through,

the favorites and these offenses on these for these favorites, they've been coming through for them, where the overs last year came through for them, and same with the favorite. So I don't know if you have the numbers on that. Do you have them? Yeah, I just pulled. So last season, exactly 500.

So basically totals in night games, 33 and 33. In 2022 and 2023, they were 79 and 48 to the under, so almost 63%. So basically, I think you nailed it. I think it was favorites creating those totals that should have gone under. to over the underdogs not covering and it happened at such a ridiculous rate that it basically pushed it about 12% last year. I mean, you just heard that, Chad. That's that's crazy the difference

from year to year and that's why I keep trying to bring up that it simply could be anomaly. Like we, with the rule change to the kickoff, we are living in a weird time period where all these lines are all screwed up and we're going to look back on and just be like it was that simple. Teams better offenses, better quarterbacks at shortened fields, more often than not, because of the new kickoff rules. And, you know, those unders killed me. But I remember thinking, it might have been week five or six,

adjust. I didn't come on the show every week saying, bet these prime time under is because of that. I was like something simply different here where these games were not getting extra points or we're not getting the free points we're used to. These games are gonna go over because something has changed.

And unfortunately, it took me all season to figure out that kickoff, man. It changed so much last season. And just there, Evan, given those numbers or really jumps out to me how much it did change it. Well, look, the kickoff rule is changing again. And I think my opinion on the kickoff rule right now

is that it's going to change it to the detriment of what we saw last year. I think that teams will more than likely be less inclined to when you're kicking off to putting the team in a position of running it back because the penalty, is going to be so much greater. It's going to be even harder to stop teams

because the field's going to be even shorter. Number one, number two, the one thing that worries me, Simon, about what you just said regarding kickoffs is that's a one-year sample and a lot of the stuff that Evan just pointed out is multi-year changes that where we've seen it sort of slant down, down, down, down, down.

That has nothing to do with kickoffs. And that's the harder thing to unpack. It does, but last year was that what I was talking about on steroids. Like those other years, the margins were much smaller. We've already talked about those other years, the stuff that makes sense for those years where the practice rate has dropped, and you can really dive into this whole thing if people want it to. Like, I know pros who have done it, but the fact that they're practicing less, tackling

less has affected a lot of these teams, especially the difference between a well-coached team and teams that put on the pads during practice during certain weeks. and teams that simply do not for the entire season. It's pretty interesting if people don't look into that stuff. But what you're talking about going back, Chad, I feel like is also something mean you've been harping on about these coaches and these fourth downs. Like we've really, if you go back and you look through,

even these last couple years, especially these last four or five years since COVID, the upticking coaches going for it on fourth down on their own side of the field is greatly up than it was in the 2010s. And that is something that you could attribute more to these favorites. but I just wanted to bring up the prime time under thing because people have asked me about it, why we really didn't talk about it last season.

I was like, what is there to talk about? It's a bad bet. Like there was no value to me. We'll see this upcoming season. Like we said, I'm hoping the books adjust because of the kickoff, Chad. Maybe every week we'll get an extra four or five points. But, you know, last year what hung true to me was Evan always come on here and talk about the 50 point line, right?

When the total is above 50 points, historically we'd always bet that under. I don't know if Evan has the numbers on, but it felt like the same thing last year where that wasn't an easy layup bet every week like it was in the story before where you know certain weeks we had to actually stay away from it where it's like no these two offenses can hit this number

where usually we talk, we joke all the time like you see a 51 you blindly take that under historically long term that's a winner so once again is it because of the kickoff Chad is it because of the fourth down ruling is it all of it all mixed in one pot together it's just something that jumped out to me where it's like these simple bets I don't need to put a ton of work into.

Now that's going to be another couple hours a week added into my regime of dive into these different games and these numbers just because I can't blindly bet the under on 51 like I used to. Is that true, Evan? Yeah. So at 50 or higher, 2021 to 2023, 59% 6444. Last year, 13 and 12. 500 didn't matter all in the air.

So yeah, I mean, last season, that number. didn't turn to anything. You know, three years prior, you'd be up almost 13% ROI. So there's a lot of patterns you're seeing here, Chad. A lot of patterns. I actually wonder in the next year, Simon, will you spend more time during this offseason focusing on fourth down

and how to find the signals and the noise on fourth down conversion? Or what happened with the kickoff? I'm done with the kickoff. off, I put a ton of time in that. She was the season ended, Chad. Like, I usually go away. I didn't do any of that.

I literally just dove right back into it because I was losing my shit, especially in the middle of the season about it, where it's like, why can I adjust this? What am I missing on this ruling? What's the biggest difference here? I told you, the biggest difference to me these last couple of years has been the influx of these mobile quarterbacks from college and how that affects how these coaches call these fourth down plays. Because that is such a huge difference, right?

You have so many different options. You can either do a read option to the running back where the quarterback can keep it and run it or they can just take it out of the running back's belly and just do a quick pass. And like we've seen these last five, six, seven years, that really changed these fourth down offenses where it is such a big deal.

So I'm probably with you. I'll probably spend the next month of May, a little bit of June, dive even more to these fourth down offenses. And, you know, I've watched every single snap Daniels took on fourth downs and I'm really excited see what Kingsbury does in year two with him because every play they call for him on fourth down was the perfect call of the perfect exact time that's why me and you kept yelling for regression it took a long-ass time i think into the NFC championship game for that regression hit on fourth down

because every play they had called daniels always made the right read either gave it to the running back hit the first read in terry mcclaren or he pulled it in and ran it himself never did he make the wrong read what was it 80 percent they were on fourth down so it was just i mean it's incredible going back and watching that because, you know, I like to pick guys apart because I know this is what the NFL coaches are going to do. Like every team, the NFC East, all they're doing is watching Daniels tape. Like, they don't care about DAC or Russell Wilson on the Giants or Jalen Hertz. Everyone's just so locked in on Daniels because he was such a game changer last year. And that, that to meet you out would be my biggest offseason project. What is going down on these four

downs, on short fields? What is the biggest change these coaches have made with a new kickoff rule? Simon, Evan, this may be the most important episode we ever do. And amazingly, we'll return with our next episode of the favorites Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly.

If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what?

We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it out. We get to ask other people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired.

It's a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. And every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. and we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment,

and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Winning on Clay is an art. The rallies are relentless. And at the French Open, only the toughest survive.

I'd know. I competed there for decades. Join me, Renee Stubbs, on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast for no nonsense breakdowns of the biggest matches, the toughest players, and the moments that define Roland Garris. She's an outsider to win the French for me.

And she likes Clay. Listen, Lennarabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now and actually can win on any surface. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports.