The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - 5 Moves You Need to Make Week Ahead Of Week 6 (Ep. 1755)

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Starting point is 00:00:30 you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. I'm Ryan Warmly, joined as AM every Monday by Tara Roberts. We are talking five moves to make ahead of week six. We are barreling through the season here, Tara. Quick reminder for everybody that all of our weekly consensus rankings and tears can be found at Fantasypros.com slash rankings. We've got a couple buys. We've got some sales. We've also got a drop later on in the show. Let's start with the buys. who do you have for us here this week? We're going to start with a buy that surprisingly should not be a buy, but it is at this point.

Starting point is 00:01:08 I wanted to talk about it last week, but something in my gut told me to hold off just one week before we talked about Derek Henry here by Derek Henry. The Ravens are obviously in a really terrible position here with Lamar Jackson out for multiple weeks, potentially through the Ravens Week 7 by there. They've got a match up against the L.A. Rams this week. Do I think that Henry will have a vast improvement this week? No. The vibe for him is for the future, the back half of this season here. Because, again, when we look at this Ravens offense and Derek Kenway, we know that he gets aggressive usage on the ground. So if the Ravens are struggling, falling from behind, ultimately that just limits the upside for Derek Henry and reduces his touches overall.

Starting point is 00:01:49 When they're in better situations and better matchups there, he'll get back to being Derek Henry. There's no issue with him being cooked, him being too old, anything. all. We saw in week one that he looked fantastic. The Ravens just have to get into better matchup situations here. And after the Ravens buy, things start to look up here. So let's say we get Lamar Jackson back. We've got matchups against Chicago, Miami. Excellent matchups here. We got Minnesota that has also been very vulnerable on the ground, even though they've been a tough defense overall. Then the playoff schedule is Cincinnati, New England, Green Bay. So it's just a wonderful thing to buy into if you're a team with an excellent record and you don't need Derek Henry specifically to put up big numbers this week. if he can hold off to the back half of the season, it can pay off dividends for you.

Starting point is 00:02:30 Yeah, it's really interesting because Lamar has had, when he's had injuries in the past, they have sometimes lingered, but they have talked about this as like, this is like a couple weeks and, you know, he will be back. And the Ravens as an organization aren't going to say, oh, well, we're just going to tank the season as early as, you know, early October. They're going to get their players back and try and want to to compete. It's the way they're wired. And you're right, the schedule.

Starting point is 00:02:56 I think I read somewhere that. it's the 27th easiest schedule, or the, so I guess like the fifth easiest schedule. The 27th most difficult schedule. It's very easy schedule is my point. Coming after the buy, it's just been a brutal, you know, first six games for them, you know, with the injuries on top of it. He, you know, Henry, like, did struggle against Cleveland in week two when the team was still healthy.

Starting point is 00:03:17 Cleveland's also just a really good defense and, like, made it a real point to stop him. So I don't, you know, I want to put it too much weight on that when these other struggles have been coinciding with the team's strength. struggling so much, you know, like you mentioned, just in terms of tough schedule and injuries and all that. So I find Henry really fascinating because if you believe that Lamar is going to be back and healthy and this will be the offense at the very least, maybe not the defense, but the offense that we expected, then now might be a great time to buy because his manager is saying, not only has he been bad, but he has the Rams coming up and then a buy. So that's two more

Starting point is 00:03:49 weeks of struggles here. You can almost take advantage of that. Where do you have him rest of season amongst running backs? He's still inside the top 10. He's RB8 in our consensus rankings. I don't get the sense that that's how he's being viewed by most fantasy managers, though. That's exactly how I have him. But when I'm looking rest of season, I am taking into account that, hey, like, just for right now, it's a bad situation and you can't use him. But when you factor in the level of upside that he has, if you can just gut it through.

Starting point is 00:04:16 And that's why it's more of a specific buy. If your team is struggling right now, this is probably not the best buy for you. It won't matter if you buy him in week eight, he goes off. but you've lost all the games in between and then you're out of playoff contention, right? So rest of season, I still have him top 10, but we got to get there first to the race of the season for him. Yeah, definitely, definitely more appealing by if you are currently, you know, four and one or, you know, in first place and doing well. And something where you can afford to say, hey, let me set myself up for, you know, the second half of the season already as opposed to, like, if you're one and four, like, probably not. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:04:52 Who's your other buy for us this week? We're just stick on the running back track here, a big name running back that have poor perception here. Kenneth Walker is a buy for me, and that came aggressively after last night's game, where I sat through the frustration of watching his usage. Because the thing about him is a buy is that his production overall is fine, but the perception is what makes him a good by-low candidate here. Because when you look at the numbers, I'm not convinced the Seahawks are intentionally trying to pull Kenneth Walker out of the game once they get into the red zone, because the numbers don't say that. It just so happens that he's got possibly the worst luck of any running back.

Starting point is 00:05:31 You know, he's breaking off these big runs. And typically when you break off a big run, you are often pulled out of the game for a little bit of rest here, another back put in. So if you're breaking off a big run to get the team to the five-guard line and then Zach Charbonnet gets subbed in, it's a bad look there and he's getting the touchdowns. But when you're looking at the backfield as a whole, Walker is still the lead back. There is no indication that we're having any kind of flip here. He's still getting excellent volume. He still has more snaps than Charbonnet. He still has plenty of attempts in the red zone. He has 13 attempts in the red zone. That is within the top 15 of all running backs. The problem is, is that Charbonnet has 13 attempts in the

Starting point is 00:06:06 red zone as well. So it's a split backfield in theory, but Kenneth Walker is still the RB1 of that team. And when you look at the numbers overall, outside of week one where you could argue that the lack of usage there was well below expectations and the reason for that is that he didn't get that preseason work so they were doing maybe a slow ramp up since he had been dealing with a foot injury during the offseason. But after that week, Walker's worst finish has been RB 26, and he's had two top 12 performances, one of those games being in tandem with Zach Charbonnet. The opportunity is there. He's got a safe floor. He's got a high ceiling. He's a weekly top 24 running back. And right now, fantasy managers are frustrated with that perception of Charbonnet,

Starting point is 00:06:46 so he's actually a buy low, despite the numbers being good. And when you look at his game log, Like when you look on fantasy pros, you know, the teams that are difficult are highlighted in red, the teams that are easy highlighted in green. And if it's neither, like kind of a neutral matchup, then they're black. Every single matchup from week six through the end of the season, as of right now, is green or black. There are no, like, designated, very difficult running back matchups, you know, throughout the rest of the year. And there's a handful of ones that are even quite good that are green in there. You know, he is such a fun player, like, to watch at times.

Starting point is 00:07:18 and then so frustrating at other times when they're taking him off the field and everything like that. Even with week one dragging him down in terms of just like the overall yardage production, he's 10th in the NFL in rushing yards this season. Again, that's even including his down week one. And he does have three rushing touchdowns, right? It's not like he hasn't gotten in the end zone. It just feels like it could be more. It just hasn't been.

Starting point is 00:07:42 It's so funny. Like I remember all of the, you know, dynasty rookie draft, you know, discussions about Brees Hall. and Kenneth Walker in the same year. And here we are, you know, years into their careers. And they're back to back in the rest of season rankings. They're RB 14 and RB-15. And it's like those two are just, you know, attached at the hip for their careers here. Does RB-14 sound about right to you for Walker?

Starting point is 00:08:07 It does. You know, he doesn't, because unfortunately the presence of Sharpene, he doesn't ultimately on a week-to-week basis have that top five upside. But having him right outside of that RB-1 category is like, literally the perfect spot for him. I do want to let everybody know that if they want a chance to win one of the most unique pieces of NFL fan gear out there, the large NFLPA wall smack, courtesy of our good friends at Trophy Smack, the number one destination for Epic Fantasy Football Hardware, then this is your shot.

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Starting point is 00:09:02 We're going to sell Devante Smith. I'm a very consistent person. A few weeks ago, I said sell AJ Brown off his big performance against the Rams. I will say the exact same thing about Devante Smith here. And it's no insult to him, the talent that he has. It's just that the Eagles don't naturally want to be a pass-heavy team. Jalen Hertz threw the ball 38 times this week. That's just outside of the norm. And I'm not surprised that it happened. When you have both of your superstar receivers expressing their frustration, it's that, you know, squeaky wheel gets the oil situation where you can almost guarantee that there's going to be more pass volume. But on a week-to-week basis, that is not the goal of the Eagles. And when the past volume comes down,

Starting point is 00:09:42 unfortunately, Devante Smith is going to be reliant on touchdowns. And when those don't come, you get those nasty single-digit fantasy point performances that wreck your week, unfortunately. So there are game scripts that will push them into more volume, but it is game-specific. And I don't want to rely on a receiver whose floor is legitimately below five fantasy points. So this is a fantastic opportunity, right? The performance from Devante Smith was so high. And in any other situation, you're looking at these numbers and you're feeling like he's putting them up on a regular basis here. But here, not so much.

Starting point is 00:10:15 So you want to take this opportunity when they've increased the past volume and sell him if you can and move on to what I think is a more stable situation if you can sell him for somebody else that has more reliable production. What are you hoping, like is there a name specifically you would throw out of the type of player you'd be trying to get back for him? Yeah, and you might have to, you know, do a little bit of adjustment. But a guy that I always like to say is just, you know, it's Michael Pittman for me, a guy that doesn't have that same perception, more so gets categorized into the same bucket as guys. like Devonce Smith and Jameson Williams, despite the fact that he is the wide receiver one of his team and does have consistent volume there. Just again, he's got that perception of, you know, upside being limited, Daniel Jones and whatnot. So ultimately, you can flip to something like else, something else like that. Who's your other cell? My other cell there is Sam Laporta.

Starting point is 00:11:10 Again, you know, you don't, it doesn't always have to be a cell high situation. And, you know, as a matter of fact, there are other tight ends that are having these strong performances that I don't think are sell highs. But what I'm looking at Laporta specifically, it's because he offers the star power in a trade to garner a high-end asset at another position. He had a fantastic game, right? 92 yards, nearly 100 yards, a touchdown here. But we cannot forget that those boom games happened for him. But when the boom games don't exist, his floor is super low. We had three straight games of seven or less fantasy points. This was his first touchdown of the season. reason, there are natural highs and lows in his game because of the offense that he plays in

Starting point is 00:11:49 and because of the weapons that surround. But again, he is a high-end, flashy tight-in. He was a guy that most people were drafting is the tied-in four. So coming off this big performance, you can get a little bit more bang for your buck out of him if you're looking to sell him. And then with all of these other fantastic performances that we've had from tight-ins coming up as strong options here, as like Darren Waller, Mason Taylor, Theo Johnson, what I'm discovering as I like do Q&As and questions throughout the week is that a lot of people are rostering multiple tight-ins. So if you have Sam Leporta, there's a good chance that you've got another tied-in that you picked up because he was just popping on waivers. If that's a guy that you feel

Starting point is 00:12:27 comfortable with rest of season, if he's a second look at his offense or has high upside or has high touchdown equity, maybe he's on a team where, you know, wide receiver one was lost to an injury, like at Theo Johnson. If you want to turn that direction, rely on that, and then Sam Leporta sell him upgraded in the position, that's something that you can very realistically do. I mentioned kind of the coloring of teams, you know, in the game log and the schedule on fantasy pros. A lot of red for Sam Leporta in terms of just tough matches against tight ends. There's one green, you know, a handful of red and then the rest neutral.

Starting point is 00:13:03 So, you know, not the most enticing schedule going forward for him. Where do you have, you mentioned he kind of going as like the tight end for in draft season. Where is he now for you? For me, he's more so kind of in like that Titan 7 or 8 area. And maybe as we progress forward and see how much we can rely on these other titans, that would be the key in terms of him moving down a little bit. He's still got high upside here because the thing is that a lot of these other titans, Travis Kelsey is underperforming.

Starting point is 00:13:31 You would want Sam Laporte over him. Brock Bowers dealing with an injury. Sam Laporta has the higher upside there. So it gets kind of messy when you're in that like four to six range in terms of all the injuries that we're dealing with and underperforming guys. He's got high upside here, but there are guys that could legitimately pass him as the season goes on. And you mentioned, you know, managers having multiple tight ends in a lot of, you know, cases.

Starting point is 00:13:53 And that second tight end, if they took a backup, there's a chance that backup's looking really good now. Like some of the best tight ends this season, Tyler Warren was going well after San LaGuarda. Jake Ferguson, obviously is getting tons of volume now. Tucker Kraft making the leap. Hunter Henry has been a great target in New England. Mason Taylor getting more work. now, like even if you took a chance on Kyle Pitts late, like he's kind of paid off.

Starting point is 00:14:15 Like, there are lots of options as the point. Darren Waller, maybe you picked it up. I mean, a lot of these guys have elevated. Mm-hmm. We're deep at the position. And so if you can take the flashier name, like if I were looking at maybe like a Dalton Kincaid, I feel like sometimes people have the skepticism around here, the lack of potential pass volume from Josh Allen inconsistencies there, he wouldn't have that same,

Starting point is 00:14:36 that same high-end, high upside sell opportunity as a Sam Leporta, who is finished as an overall tight-in one who has been drafted as an overall tight-in one, kind of gets the little bit of the boost there in terms of that mass appeal for trade targeting. We've got a special offer for everyone. Unlock a month of betting pros premium for free. Download the betting pros app today. Use promo code FP1 month. That's the number one, not spelled out.

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Starting point is 00:15:22 There's just, and I love Jerry Judy. I want the best for Jerry Judy, but there's way too much working against Jerry Judy at this point. I still think he offers value. So this is not a, you have to drop him. Like, you got to move on. There's no other option. If you have the ability to keep him, sure. But as we look across waivers and have all of these injuries that are happening, these running backs that are coming up into prominence. We've got, we talked about the popping tight ends as well. There's opportunities to grab people that have higher upside. And if you need that upside and you can't afford to hold on to Jerry Judy, it's okay to let him go at this point. The offense did look better with Dylan Gabriel. That is

Starting point is 00:16:00 undisputed there. But what was the true benefit was for the tight ends. And that kind of makes sense in terms of how we were looking at Kevin Savanski's uses. of Dylan Gabriel in the preseason. It seemed like there wasn't going to be a lot of aggressive downfield passing, more design plays to put him into comfortable situations, and naturally, those are often going to be to the tight ends here. So I'm not shocked that we didn't see a massive increase in volume to the receiving core. But less about the tilt of the volume to tight ends, and more about the fact that one, even before we got Dylan Gabriel, Neary Judy was looking more kind of lockstep with Cedric Tillman as a 1A, 1B, and it was kind of low-key looking like it was

Starting point is 00:16:41 Cedric Tillman that is maybe the 1A of that grouping. Now we have Tillman out. Isaiah Bond comes in. And for the past two weeks, Isaiah Bond has also outproduced Jerry Judy. So when you look at Jerry Judy in his skill set, he benefits from quarterbacks that like to air out the ball. Hence why he thrived and went nuclear with James Winston. But we don't have that in that offense right now, unfortunately, for Cleveland. So if there's one person who is naturally going to fall a little bit to the wayside in terms of fantasy production, unfortunately, it is Jerry Judy. So again, I mean, he's not a must drop because, see, the Cleveland schedule does get much softer, extremely soft as they go through the remainder of this season here.

Starting point is 00:17:19 But if he's not the one that's going to be benefiting from the quarterback change and the soft schedule and you need to move on, I think it's perfectly fine for you to do so. It does get softer later. Maybe not right away, at the very least this week. It's pretty tough going from, you know, facing a very aggressive Vikings defense in London to coming home. And now you go to Pittsburgh, a Steelers team that's coming off their by week. So not a fun turnaround for.

Starting point is 00:17:41 the Browns offense there. So go ahead and drop Jerry Judy. I'm not even going to play Devils Advocate. I don't have a case to not drop them. So it's a good point. Bye you. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. For Tara, I'm Ryan Warmly.

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The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - 5 Moves You Need to Make Week Ahead Of Week 6 (Ep. 1755)

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