The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - 6 Must-Start Players for Week 6 | The Primer (Ep. 1764)

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

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Starting point is 00:00:30 you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. All right, and welcome into the fantasy pros, fantasy football podcast. We're back with the week six primer episode. We'll give you our top six sleeper starts for matchups to exploit. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock. And today I'm joined by the Smitty-Wurbin-Yagerman Jensen of the FP staff.

Starting point is 00:00:52 That's right. He was number one. It's Derek Brown, fresh off a first-place finish in week five's ECR. our rankings, accuracy competition. D-Bro, have you made room on the shelf for the trophy yet? Oh, dude. Look, I will be, I will keep it a buck here. I'm probably going to fall back for it, man.

Starting point is 00:01:12 Like, if I were a betting man and I am, I think Pat Fitzmorest is going to lap me and he'll end up higher than me when it's all said and done. And other people, Mike Mayer and others at Fantasy Pros will end up higher than me in the rankings when it's all said and done. But I'm enjoying the hot streak, dude. Yeah, and just, to give full clarity of everybody first in rankings for week five, and I'm actually top five

Starting point is 00:01:36 in full season rankings, and I am first in running back rankings so far. So I'm not telling you that's how it ends the rest of the season. We turn over the rest of the cars. I'm just being honest, but maybe I'm enjoying the hot streak. Heck yes. Let's let it ride. Did you get the SpongeBob reference there too? I don't know if that was before. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no. I got it. I got it. That's what got me at the beginning. I started coughing because I was laughing. I was like, what We really went full SpongeBob. Love it. We did.

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Starting point is 00:02:51 or next month, excuse me. And if you're watching here on YouTube, please subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be a later when new videos are up and acclaim your prize if you are that lucky winner. Debrough, let's jump into the quarterback position where you have a QB trying to get maybe a little sweet revenge

Starting point is 00:03:08 on the Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah, dude, I'm gonna go with Jared Gough. He's down at QB 18 and he's 15 in ECR, excuse me. And he's QB 18 in fantasy points per game. So I understand like a lot of people are like, ah, really like he doesn't run. We all talked about regression. Dude, Jared Gough is playing amazing football.

Starting point is 00:03:25 And I know it is not consistently crossed over to the fantasy. streets for production every week. But to give him his flowers amongst 40 qualifying passers, this dude is top 12 in yards per attempt. He leads the freaking NFL in passing touchdowns. He's top 12 in highly accurate throw rate and hero throw rate. And I'm not telling anybody that the chiefs are a pushover, gimmey matchup. I understand they've allowed the 14th fewest yards per attempt and the ninth lowest passer rating.

Starting point is 00:03:53 But there are avenues to Jared Golf one, Detroit, for you to get the explosion games out of a lot of the different weapons outside of Jamir Gibbs and David Montgomery on the ground, you need a team that can push the lions into that nuclear type of spot where they go off and Gerigoff gets 350 and 3.50 and 3.50 and 4.

Starting point is 00:04:15 And so considering the constitution of the Lions defense right now, their secondary is extremely banged up Terry and Arnold's going to miss time. DJ Reed is out. The Chiefs are going to be able to move the ball and push the lions into that type of mode where it is we got to score points and in bunches. And Jared Gough, the one thing that I was worried about

Starting point is 00:04:34 coming into this year with the OC change, were we going to get as much play action? Baby, we're getting it. And that's one of the keys to this matchup. And people say, okay, the chiefs have a good past events, but how can Jared Gough get one over on them? How does that happen? It is with the use of play action. Golf right now has the third highest play action dropback rate in the NFL. He's fourth in yards per attempt and second and passing touchdowns when utilizing play action. And this matters because Casey has struggled. As good as Steve Spagnola's defense is and will be, they have struggled with play action to this point.

Starting point is 00:05:09 They're giving up the highest yards per attempt and the third highest pass rating to play action. So I think this is a good ceiling opportunity. Lions are going to get pushed. They got to pass. Casey, it is much easier to pass on them than it is to run. and a lot of different aspects, I think golf's in for a good day, dude. I think Jared Goff in this almost entire

Starting point is 00:05:31 Lines past catching group was one of my biggest blunders in my draft rankings, D-Bro, because I was just not high on them. And like, right now- We were baking and regression. We talked about this in the off-season. Yeah. They were so stinking good,

Starting point is 00:05:44 some of that has to come back to the mean, right? And that's not a bad process thing, but like, you know, there's still a really freaking good team. I know crazy to hear, huh? Well, and he's leading, the league right now and passing touchdown folks that that rating will come down a little bit it's an 8.3% touchdown clip so i don't expect that to happen but he's number seven in money throws he

Starting point is 00:06:03 right now is getting red zone passing attempts too more than we saw ben johnson willing to do it when they're getting in tight they're letting jared goff slinging around the yard there and look i don't think there's more motivation he needs than going up against a kansas city team that he's been oh so close at beating before he beat them last year in week number one i love jared goff also leads the league right now in QBR. So Goff, I think this week, I mean, is there a better stack? Name a better stack you'd rather have this week than Jared

Starting point is 00:06:32 Goff and Amon Ross St. Brown. Maybe a Mecca and Baker. Maybe. Maybe. But this kind of goes back to a process thing too. Like last week we talked about Sam Darnold. I hope people played him too. In spots where they're going to be forced to pass. The matchup

Starting point is 00:06:48 is there. This is another one where you go back to the well, where it's a quarterback that, and And honestly, this could be talked about like Matthew Stafford and weeks prior whenever we talked about him too. It's like these quarterbacks that are playing at such a ridiculously high level, but some of this hasn't consistently crossed over to fantasy point production on a weekly basis, especially for these guys that we know all of their production has to come to the air because

Starting point is 00:07:15 they're not running. So really can that happen? And I mean, do we've been hitting on all these guys? So why not golf this week? Let's go to the running back. here, D-Bro, where you have a duo of running backs, one of them who is trying to make his old coach from college proud once again with the start. Who is it? So I got to bring it up because I know both of these guys are going to be talked about a lot and people are going to say, what do I do with either

Starting point is 00:07:40 one of these guys? And I'm saying both of these guys are flex viable. And that's Sasan Haskins and Kamani-Vidal. Like, Haskins is at RB 35, Vidal's at RB 37. I think they're both RB3. So I'm in a range kind of with ECR here, but both these guys are flex-worthy this week. And I'm not telling you that both of them pay off, but there is a world we can live in that that happens. Last week, we could talk about, and I could get into the nitty gritty about snaps and carries and target share. Just know that basically these guys play the exact same amount. They got the exact same usage. I mean, it is almost a mere image of itself when you talk about how they were utilized without Marian Hampton last week.

Starting point is 00:08:21 So both of these guys are going to get usage this week. I think this is going to be a hot hand approach. And if I have to bet on one of these guys, it's Kamani Vidal, only because I'm a bigger believer in the talent and that winning out in the short and long term in this backfield until Hampton possibly comes back. Vidal has 2.83 yards after contact per carry in his career. He has three runs of at least 10 yards. He's forced miss tackles on 17% of his plays.

Starting point is 00:08:49 those numbers all trump anything that Haskins has ever done. He's got a 2.5-4 yards at a contact career mark. He's only had two runs of 10 or more yards and 65 career carries. So if I'm picking one of these guys to flex, if you got both of them off the waiver wire, it's Videl for me. But honestly, both of them are flex-worthy. There is a world we could be living in because here's the other part.

Starting point is 00:09:09 If you were to tell me that the dolphins fall apart, the Chargers, this is a big comeback game for them where they just drop like a 30 spot on this team or 35, 40 points on them. this team and the dolphins fold and they're sitting their starters of the fourth quarter, I wouldn't be surprised, but in that type of game script, maybe Haskins gets the early touchdown and Vidal gets run late or vice versa. But both these guys, the bar to be a flex worthy player is very low.

Starting point is 00:09:35 They both have the talent and the opportunity to both clear that bar, especially when we're talking about pull up any metric, any metric. I promise you the dolphins are going to be top five and almost everything you look at versus running backs. They've given up the most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, and yards of contact per attempt. And this freaking run defense is also given up the eighth highest mistackle rate. So both of these guys are flex worthy. And I'm not telling you both them get 15 opportunities, but could both of them get eight to 12 opportunities? It's possible this week, Seth. So I got to highlight them because I know that they're going to be in the conversation for flexes

Starting point is 00:10:15 based off of bi-weeks, lineups, injuries, and what have you for fantasy GMs. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news,

Starting point is 00:10:25 huge news? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.

Starting point is 00:10:37 We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. We were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was...

Starting point is 00:10:57 This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

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Starting point is 00:11:32 He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall.

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Starting point is 00:12:11 After you go through a training camp with that Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Joe Dono. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian.

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Starting point is 00:13:08 Hey, cream. Cream of chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike Cultura podcast network available on the IHartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Look, and I hate to be, you know, the guy to walk down Narrative Street, but I always think there's a little bit of a chip on the shoulder of Justin Herbert when he's going up against the Miami Dolphins who passed on him in the draft for Tuas. So you have that.

Starting point is 00:13:37 I think they get out to a good lead. And at the same time here, Derek, you mentioned the Miami Dolphins. They've succeeded the most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season. They haven't done it on a ton of volume because you haven't needed to because you can gash the dolphins. And also when you look at receiving yards for running backs this season, only one team is allowed more receiving yards to opposing backs. It's the Dallas Cowboys, of course.

Starting point is 00:14:00 So I think this is a great spot here. I think it is very, very much a business trip for Jim Harbaal and this Chargers team going down to Miami. I think they're going to lay the wood to them, man. They're going to take them out behind the shed, and I don't know, I don't know if they're coming out of that one. I don't think the Chargers are going to put up some points, man. So if that's the case, both these running backs are going to definitely be in play. Dominate your fantasy football league with Fantasy Pro's premium now available for free for six months when you deposit and place your first wager at any of our partner sports book.

Starting point is 00:14:35 And yes, that includes Hard Rock Bet Baby. This is the easiest way to get full access to our top fancy football tools all season long. Just go to fancy pros.com slash premium to get yourself started. Derek, let's go to the wide receiver position here where you have one wide receiver in particular staying home in Lucas Oil Stadium. Been a little bit of a disappointment so far, but you think he gets things together against a Cardinals team that might be thrown in the towel after last week's second half performance. Yeah, dude, I think it's a good. good spot for Josh Downs to get going. And what do we see? And he's been a player that hasn't even made the primer on some weeks because he's been like a 40 to 50% route share type of player. But last

Starting point is 00:15:17 week we saw season high, 72% route share. I mean, basically he hit season high marks across the board. 21.9% target share. 54 receiving yards. He got almost a 30% first read share. And he finished with 11.4 PPR points. That's another season high. So you look at he's getting the usage. He's playing more. the matchup this week is really, really good, Seth. As good as the Cardinals defense has been in certain weeks and spots. And if you look at season long numbers, they have struggled to defend slot receivers. They have given up the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers

Starting point is 00:15:53 and the second most receiving yards to the position. So Josh Downs wheels up, dude. Like he's a wide receiver 45 and ECR. I'm probably going to have him somewhere in the wide receiver three range. I'm very bought in on Josh Downs having a good game this week. Yeah, it's been a really nice resurgence for him. I kind of left him dead out in the water coming into the draft season just because I thought Tyler Warren would take a lot of that volume away.

Starting point is 00:16:16 Tyler Warren's volume actually kind of going down a little bit while Josh Downs rising up. So we've certainly seen a shifting in the tides there. And like, I don't know if you watch much of that Titans game last week, D, bro, but Diki, DK, very involved out of the slot. We've seen it time and time again. Cooper Cup had a couple of receptions out of there. I think it's a volume floor play here for Josh Downs. I don't know if the upside is crazy,

Starting point is 00:16:40 but you know, we go back only to week three. Ricky Pearsall took them eight for 117 as well. So it's certainly within the cards here, I think. And even your boy, Hunter Renfra, I know you got some love for him. He found the end zone twice against this defense as well. So as to your point,

Starting point is 00:16:55 slot receivers has been matching against Arizona. Yeah, but also converse to your point, too, like about the ceiling, just take his stat line from last week. Take this stateline from last week and they take the 11.4 in PPR. Toss a touchdown on top of that. Yeah. And we're talking about that that's wide receiver two production.

Starting point is 00:17:14 So like I don't, I don't think that we're asking like it's not a bridge too far to expect a ceiling like wide receiver two type production out of Josh Downs this week. I think it definitely can happen. Yeah. I mean, he's due, man. I think he is due for some regression positively to get him in the end zone. Find some paid dirt there. And you also like another wide receiver here. this week, Derek, and kind of goes back to the same theme of almost this entire episode

Starting point is 00:17:39 of fill in players. Yeah, and I'm going to give a caveat with this. Kendrick Bourne, again, being very high on him also is going to take like Ricky Pearsall, which won Jennings both sitting. But I think both of those things happens at the timing of the recording of this. We don't have that information. Well, Pierce Saul, he's expected to be out, but Jennings, we don't have any news on him. He did miss practice on Wednesday. So I'm just being transparent about this call. and how we're projecting this. But if both of those guys are out, like I think that we're going to get,

Starting point is 00:18:10 the matchup is great. And Kendrick Bourne was the unquestioned wide receiver one for the 49ers last week. Dude got a 22.4% target here. Everybody saw the receiving R as he put up. He got a 25% first reach here. Like he looked like Kendra Bourne from a few years ago last week. And he looked really freaking good doing it.

Starting point is 00:18:27 And now you put the matchup against the Buccaneers up here where it's one, they've given up the 13th most fantasy. points per game to perimeter wide receivers. So check that box. Jamel Dean might be back, but even if he's back this week, we know he's not 100% and he's not shadowing. So who cares? Zion McCollum is hurt probably out. Benjamin Morrison is still hurt. He's not going to play. So even if Dean is back of the lineup, this secondary is not at full strength. And so Mac Jones going to be getting the ball out of his hands. You cannot run on the Buccaneers. They're going to have to

Starting point is 00:19:00 lean more into the passing game. So looking at all the all the parts of pieces of this matchup. Kendrick Bourne just feels like free money at wide receiver 41 in ECR right now. Yeah, I have big fomo of not picking up last week before the breakout performance, 11 targets in that game. Of course, you're going to have some DeMarcus Robinson out there as well. He had seven targets of his own. We had Jake Tongs, take 11 targets. And like, Mac Jones is not the worst quarterback in the world. Like, there's not a huge gap. I think between like Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence. Like, I think it. BTJ says, hi. Come back, Mac. Come back. Come back. Look, like right now, if we're ranking quarterbacks, one to 32 in the NFL, you can't tell me

Starting point is 00:19:39 Mac Jones isn't at least in the top 32. I think he's there. It's fair. So, yeah, I really like Kendrick Bourne. You know, not only for this week, but I don't know when Joanne Jennings ever gets back, right? Like, I don't know. It's true. He's been banged up all week.

Starting point is 00:19:53 And Tampa Bay, they are not going to take their foot off the gas, man. They are rolling right now. They're going to push them. Yep. Yep. So I like Kendrick Bourne a lot this week as well, D-Bro. So, tight end, though. This is where I don't want to push back, but I do have to-

Starting point is 00:20:08 No, push back, tell me. Come on. I think the entire community is starting to sour on one Zachertz who had a great resurgent year coming off the torn ACL last year in Washington. And it just has been a little bit up and down for him so far this season, though, Derek. It has been very up and down, but a lot of this comes down to coverage matchups and when Zacherts is utilized and when he's not utilized. So just to like a broader conversation we could have here, Seth,

Starting point is 00:20:36 teams that play a lot of single high coverage, unless you're a tight end that can beat man coverage, can line up on the perimeter, most tight ends are not going to do a lot versus teams that run a lot of single high coverage. A lot of teams are going more to too high coverage and that's helping a lot of tight ends out. It's helping Zach Ertz out.

Starting point is 00:20:57 And that's why I have to bring him up here. The fact that he's tied in 14 and he's, I'm going back to the well. And if anybody saw all the primary updates, if you go back and you read it, go back and read the article right now. Receipts are out there. Whenever I went back to the data about Zachertz last week,

Starting point is 00:21:13 and I looked closer about the chargers and stuff, I said, dude, I'm out. You don't need to play him. I look deeper into it. And that proved to be correct. But I'm back in this week, Seth, because the coverage matchup does go back into the favor of Zacherts. You look at the bears and what's,

Starting point is 00:21:31 they've done. And this has been a Dennis Allen thing. He's been a big too high believer going all the way back to the Saints. They ran a lot of too high and stuff like that before. The Bears run too high at the second highest rate in the NFL right now. Almost 63% of the defensive snaps. And people say, why, why do you highlight this? And why does it matter single high versus too high? Because it matters how defenses play and how offenses are going to attack them. If a defense is made to keep you from stretching the field and put funnels everything. underneath, your running backs are going to get more play in the past and game, your slot receivers and your tight ends. And this coverage matchup leans itself for Zach Ertz. Against too high this

Starting point is 00:22:12 year, Seth, Zach Ertz, 20.8% target share, 2.26 yards per route run and a 32.3% first read share. So yes, I'm going back to the Zach Ertz well. He's going to be a tied in one for me in rankings. look I get the call I totally do honestly and like I think game script could be in your favor because if I know anything about Buffalo when they play these elite teams they're not afraid to play the Bears this week

Starting point is 00:22:39 oh sorry sorry Chicago Bears so the Bears are going to push them though your point though yeah yeah especially with the motivation from last year is you know the commander's defense is not play good this year to this point so like do we think that Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams

Starting point is 00:22:55 can't have a good day and push the command they're going to. Yeah, I think the other thing kind of leaning towards Zach Ertz's favor is when he's needed him, he has been a very trusty weapon for Jane Daniels. Right now, quarterback rating per target, seventh among the tight end position right now. Fancy points per target as well, eighth. So he's doing the most with what he's getting. We just need to see a bit more volume here.

Starting point is 00:23:20 And you're kind of calling your shot that you think he gets that volume in a week where if Terry McLaurin's back, he's not going to be a hundred percent. I don't think McClorin plays. I was going to say that's another, that's another feather in his cap. I think McLaren's going to be out. How many more targets can debotate too? I mean,

Starting point is 00:23:35 this guy saw 11 targets last week. It just feels like, like, I don't know if I want to be giving him that many touches for a guy who has a little bit of an injury history there in Washington. You're not wrong. Debrote,

Starting point is 00:23:46 great stuff on the primer, not just this video version, but also the YouTube short that will be out and also the written version. How many words you got in this week? 10,000, 12,000, 20,000. After revisions, I'm at like around 17,000, but then I've still got to go back and I've got to update about injuries, basically the entire 49ers passing attack. Once we get worried about

Starting point is 00:24:09 who's in, who's out, all that kind of stuff, it'll probably end up somewhere in the 18, 19,000 word range. We'll see. Get those hands on ice, baby. Get them on ice. We need them for next week. That is going to do it for us on this episode of the Fancy Pros Fancy Football Podcast. Comment down below your favorite week six. sleeper starts and while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel if you're new for Derek Brown. I'm Seth Wilcox. Take care, y'all.

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The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - 6 Must-Start Players for Week 6 | The Primer (Ep. 1764)

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