The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - 8 Players Fantasy Football Projections LOVE | Draft Values for 2026 (Ep. 2116)

Episode Date: August 8, 2026

Fantasy football projections can uncover league-winning value—but they can also expose players being overvalued in drafts. In today's episode, Tera Roberts, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Jake Ciely break down eight players whose FantasyPros projections are significantly higher than their current Half-PPR ADP, helping you identify the biggest values before your 2026 fantasy football draft. The crew debates whether Josh Jacobs is still an RB1 despite injury concerns, why Emeka Egbuka could be one of the best wide receiver values in fantasy football, and whether Rashee Rice's lofty projection is too optimistic. They also dive into Ashton Jeanty's polarizing RB1 outlook, Rome Odunze's role in Chicago, Harold Fannin Jr.'s breakout potential, Tyler Shough's fantasy ceiling, and why Quentin Johnston could surprise in Mike McDaniel's new Chargers offense. If you're preparing for redraft, best ball, or home leagues, this episode will help you identify players whose projections suggest they're being drafted too late. Timestamps: (May be off due to ads) Intro - 0:00:00 Pat - Josh Jacobs (GBP RB) - 0:01:32 Colston Loveland Signed Bears Jersey Giveaway Promo - 0:04:52 Jake - Emeka Egbuka (TBB WR) - 0:05:24 Pat - Rashee Rice - 0:08:53 Jake - Ashton Jeanty - 0:14:43 Square Promo - 0:19:56 Pat - Rome Odunze - 0:22:05 Jake - Harold Fannin Jr - 0:26:42 Pat - Tyler Shough - 0:31:30 Hard Rock Bet - 0:37:11 Jake - Quentin Johnston - 0:39:14 Listener Q+A - 0:43:54 Cheat Sheet Creator Promo - 0:50:46 Outro - 0:51:11 Helpful Links: Hard Rock Bet - Sign up for Hard Rock Bet and make a $5 bet and you'll get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up and make your first deposit today. Payable in bonus bet(s). Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-888-ADMIT-IT. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ, CO, IL, NJ, OH, TN, VA) Draft Wizard - Dominate your fantasy football draft with Draft Wizard. Run fast mock drafts, test different strategies, build custom cheat sheets, get pick-by-pick draft advice, and learn your leaguemates' tendencies before draft day. Just download the FantasyPros App or head to fantasypros.com/draftwizard Follow us on Twitch - The team here at FantasyPros is taking questions all week, every week on Twitch. Follow us on Twitch at twitch.tv/fantasypros and never miss a stream! Discord – Join our FantasyPros Discord Community! Chat with other fans and get access to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Come get your questions answered and BE ON THE SHOW at fantasypros.com/chat Leave a Review – If you enjoy our show and find our insight to be valuable, we’d love to hear from you! Your reviews fuel our passion and help us tailor content specifically for YOU. Head to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts and leave an honest review. Let’s make this show the ultimate destination for fantasy football enthusiasts like us. Thank you for watching and for showing your support – https://fantasypros.com/review/ BettingPros Podcast – For advice on the best picks and props across both the NFL and college football each and every week, check out the BettingPros Podcast at bettingpros.com/podcast, our BettingPros YouTube channel at youtube.com/bettingpros, or wherever you listen to podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Tara Roberts here with Pat Fitzmorest and Jake Seeley. And today we are talking eight fantasy players that fantasy football projections love. These players are guys that Pat and Jake and quite frankly, me too as well, because they picked a fantastic group of player. Spoiler alert on that one. These are players that they think have. more favorable fantasy pros projections than their half-p-r-a-d-p-pr-a-pps might actually suggest. And they are giving you a very nice variety, multiple players here being taken before round one,

according to a half-p-r-a-depr-depy-ppp. And players being taken in the mid-rounds and double-digit round players as well. So we are doing a broad spectrum here in terms of finding value for you guys. Now, Pat, how are you doing? I know this is a big week for us. We're finally getting actual football. It may not be the actual football. that we want, but we're getting it. How are you doing? I'm doing great. Yeah, we're getting

football. We're getting the pads and, you know, Hard Knocks debuted last night. First episode with the Seahawks. That was a lot of fun. So I feel like once Hard Knocks premieres, like you're into training camp now. Yeah. We're knee-deep. So I'm ready. How about you, Jake? I'm ready for all the hot takes to change our opinions after one game in the preseason where we saw 15 plays from a player. That's all that matters, right? Right. I've already saying, the Jonathan Brooks RB one season because he is not playing in the Hall of Fame game there. So we've already got it. The hype is happening here.

But let's go ahead and dive in because we've got a ton of players to cover for you guys. We'll start off here with Pat's number one player. It's Josh Jacobs with an 80p of RB 14 overall 21 here. Pat, talk to us about Josh Jacobs. Yeah, the projections really seem to like him. Tara, they've got him for 289 carries, 1161 yards, 12 touchdown. and then another 36 catches for 284 yards and 1.2 touchdowns receiving. If he's healthy, I do think there's an excellent chance for Jacobs to hit those projections.

And I can't wait to hear what Jake is going to say about this because I think Jake likes more than Josh Jacobs more than consensus. I mean, it was Josh Jacobs being banged up over the second half of the 2025 season that kind of took some of the luster off last year. Like he was dealing with this bone bruise in his knee and a thigh contusion after landing hard on that infernal turf and MetLife Stadium in a mid-November game against the Giants. But, look, Jacobs has averaged 18.9 touches a game since coming to Green Bay. Like Matt LaFleau leans up him hard. He scored 30 touchdowns in 32 regular season games with actors almost won a game. So I get the projection we have of 13.2 total touchdowns. Seems spot on if he stays healthy.

I mean, he's one of the best inside runners in the league. Matt LaFleur is a very good run game designer. I don't love the Packers Offensive Line. I mean, the newly renamed Zach Baco, Bewele, formerly Zach Tom. He's probably the only above average offensive linemen the Packers have. But Packers' offensive line has always been better than the sum of its parts while Matt LaFleur has been there. So while I have Josh Jacobs ranked a little lower than this, I can kind of get on board with these projections. just a matter of Jacob's staying healthy, which, you know, he can't totally take for granted with a high mileage back in his age 28th season.

But if he can just stay upright, I think he has a good chance to match these projections. Yeah, you mentioned that offensive line. That is a concern. Hopefully it works out very well. It's funny. The injury played such a major role last season. I mean, before the injury, he was literally the safest anytime touchdown bet that you could possibly make there. Jake, you love Josh Jacobs, too?

I want to say my projections love him for some reason that a little bit lower than I have him in the rankings, but I do love the upside. I think they're real reason that he's ranked where he is and where the ADP is is because we don't know what's going on off the field. Even as bad as last year was, he was still top 10 in points per game. We're talking about somebody that if you look at, of course, his entire career, the only season he hasn't had at least 13 fancy points per game and half point BPR was that last season with the Raiders. So if you look at Jacobs just like, Pat said it, being healthy, this offense, even with a question, offensive line will still be the Packers offense. He's still going to get the goal line touches. He's still one of the best getting into the end zone with those ways, which is why he has double-digit touchdowns, half the seasons he's been in the NFL, even went two of them with

the Raiders. So I think that we're just looking for the off-the-field stuff like don't diminish it at all. But if he plays 17 games, even 15 games, he's going to be in the RB1 conversation just because he's as productive as he is. Yeah, touchdowns carry him through three down back there. Before we move on to our next player here to Jake's player. Just a quick reminder, if you want the chance to win a Colston Loveland signed Bears jersey, courtesy of our friends at Pristine Auction, then this is your shot right here. All you have to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pro's YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below on any of our videos. This one right here. Tell us which players that you love their projections for, and that is it. We will be announcing the winner right here on the channel,

so make sure that you turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new videos are up and to claim your prize. Now, Jake's next player here is another one that I love here again. Guys, I said spoiler alert. This is a great list here. Ameca abuca, ADP currently wide receiver 18 with an overall ADP of 41. Jake, talk to us about a meccaabuka. The upside of the projections is showing it that he's even higher than ADP is the fact that he's stepping into the Mike Evans role. We already saw them last year, and you could look at it two ways.

You could make the argument already that people will make. I've even brought it them up. I did a breakout column for every single position and let off the wide receivers with Ibuca, not surprisingly, and made the same comment that those first six games were without Mike Evans or Chris Guy when one of the other were out for all the first six games. But at the same time, after the downturn, when we all know it happened, he was hurt, the offensive line was hurt, Baker Mayfield was hurt. This entire team played the second half of the season, well, the entire offense played hurt.

I think we're still looking at Bucca and the ability. And the comparison I made for him coming out of college was kind of like a Keenan Allen type where some of the volume might have to offset a little bit of the average depth of target or the potential touchdown upside. But even so, we're talking about Keenan Allen, who for years was a wide receiver one. Like that's not a slight on a Bucca. It's just the fact of what somebody might think that he was in a Jamar Chase world, I wouldn't go that far.

But to be a Keenan Allen, to be a back end wide receiver one, which is kind of where the projections have him versus the ADP, I actually thought this. would be more on lockstep. It seems a lot of people want to get on the Ibuka train. And I'm there for it. I have them as a like fringe wide receiver one, too, but have them in a lot of leagues so far. And it seems like I know that you were talking about with Pat and he pinged the audience,

so to speak. And there's a lot of people that seem to be in Abuca. I'm surprised. Like I said, I would have thought the ADP was higher because it seems everybody loves them, but somehow the sites are reflecting that yet. Yeah, that's the beauty of it right there. Everybody is in. It's not rising.

Maybe there's a certain point to which it can't rise. I feel like there's that stigma of what the buck's offense was last year in Baker Mayfield and knowing that that, you know, that beautiful 41 touchdown season that he had definitely was an outlier year, but he can still be productive. Do you have any concerns around what if Chris Godwin stays healthy? You know, is it possible that he could be the wide receiver one of this offense? It's an overall fantastic group. I don't think at this point.

I have Chris Godwin a decent amount of shares, mostly because he talked about himself saying that like this is the first like the first offseason since the year. injury where he feels like he's getting back to 100% wasn't even close to that midseason last year and still didn't feel that at the end of the season. So Chris Guywin being alongside of him, no. I mean, even less than say Chris Guywin was peak Chris Godwin. This is still an offense that has supported Mike Evans and Chris Guywin before and with Baker Mayfield. So I'm not concerned at all. There's plenty of offenses out there, support two wide receivers even more. And the Zach Robinson kind of implementation of his offense here would be a third wide receiver is going to be used

anyway with a lot of three wide sets. And we know Kate Otten's basically a non-factor. So I have zero concerns, really. I think that a healthy Chris Godwin only just helps the offense. Not that he's the quarterback because Baker is the one with the tide that rises all the ships. But I think that Godwin would just help the offense click even more with less coverage for Igbuka.

Yeah, that's a great point. Poor Kate Otten there. No relevancy unless everybody, every receiver goes down apparently. So it is good. We are deep there at wide receiver. Moving on to our next player here. guys, we are doing early round ones right here, guys that are being taken before round six, according to our half-PPR overall ADP.

And the next player here is Rishi Rice, ADP wide receiver 11. Moving on up there as we get a little bit more comfortable with the thought that he will be hopefully on the field for the entire season here. And overall ADP 29. Pat, talk to us about Rishi Rice. Our projections have Rishie Rice for 99 catches, 1,099 yards. 9.7 touchdowns. That would put him wide receiver 7 in our projections ahead of Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, George Pickens, Nico Collins. There are just so many ways this type of season,

these types of numbers could be short-circuited with Rishi Rice. I mean, let's start with the fact that Rishie Rice has only played 12 games the last two years due to injuries and suspension, recently spent time in jail for violating his probation, which he had received for causing a multi-car crash with injuries because he was street racing and then fled the scene. Rishi Rice then had to recover from a clean-up knee surgery in jail. And there was footage from training camp of him kind of lumbering around, not exactly looking spry. And hey, it's early in training camp.

I wasn't too worried about that, but nor was it reassuring. So will Rice stay healthy all year? Will he stay out of trouble all year? Magic eight ball says reply hazy. again later. And let's be honest here. The Chief's offense has kind of sucked in the Rishi Rice era, at least relative to what it was in the pre-Rishie Rice era. In his first five seasons as a starter, Patrick Mahomes averaged just shy of 4,800 yards a season, 38.4 touchdown passes a year, 8.1 yards per attempt. In the three seasons since Rishie Rice joined the team,

Mahomes has averaged about 1,000 fewer yards per year, hasn't thrown more than 27 touchdown passes in any season, and he's average like 7.1 yards, a full yard fewer per attempt. I'm not blaming Rishi Rice for that, like, not at all. But the fact remains that the Chiefs passing game has been much worse with Rishie Rice as the number one receiver than it was with Tyreek Hill is the number one receiver. So maybe Andy Reid looks for new answers. Maybe Xavier Worthy has a bigger role. Maybe Cyrus Allen turns into something. And maybe some of the screen passes that have been going to Rishie Rice. And he's been getting a lot of catches and yardage on screens, maybe some of those screens start going to new edition,

Kenneth Walker. So I'm fading the heck out of these Rishi Rice projections. I just, there's so many ways this could go wrong. Apologies to the excellent data scientists at fantasy pros. But yeah, I'm not with these projections. You know, it's interesting. I was looking at Patrick Mahomes last season, obviously, you know, he got off to an incredible start there without Rishie Rice, but it was all driven by the legs there. The receiving core has been just so underwhelming. I mean, to your point, hopefully they can find something and, you know, maybe Xavier Worthy can finally become that deep threat that they've been missing since Tyree Kill, not that he'll ever be Tyra Kill, but they've got to give something downfield. Maybe Cyrus Allen once he comes back from his injury,

but at the end of the day, you know, there has to be something in terms of pushing the ball downfield. But I want to ask you, you know, is it possible that we could see an uptale? in production overall, if this injury from Patrick Mahomes maybe keeps everything a little bit shorter. And so he continues to have to be forced to keep everything to the lower. Lower A dot players, which is, you know, Rishi Rice, so, you know, under five-yard A-dot there. So could the injury maybe be a factor in helping push these projections up? Possibly. I mean, maybe he just has to throw more, you know, and the Chiefs maybe have gotten a little

little weaker defensively with losing their cornerbacks. Maybe they have to get into more shootouts. That would certainly help Rashid Rice. I think one thing that I'm curious about is like whether the presence of Kenneth Walker can start pulling some of these defenses out of too high safety looks against the Chiefs because Mahomes has been going against too high safety to really high rate. And maybe that helps boost this offense a little bit. I don't know if it helps boost Rashid so much as it could maybe help worthy or some of the

vertical threats in this offense. But interesting thought. Like I'm really eager to see the chief's offense this year. Jake, where do you have Rishi Rice ranked? Ranked or projection? Well, ranked he's outside of the top 10. And even I think he's not even a wide receiver one for me at the top of my head. I have my projections pulled up.

He checked in as wide receiver 17 and projections. And it really comes down to I think what Tara was alluding to there is that the projections on fantasy pros has them almost. at 100 receptions and I think that's like you see it he doesn't even have 1100 yards so they're they're obviously accounting for not a lot downfield a shout out to a friend of ours ian harditz who tweeted out i think it was yesterday day before he's like every rishi rice big player reception air yards 25 plus downfield it was one highlight so there you go just to prove the point here is that shri rice this is who we know and i think it'd be a little bit different if he was better like

he's not terrible. Let me make that clear. I was just going to say, similar to Tyreek Hill in the day, better after the catch. Where that was the thing was Tyreek was over the middle too, but he was also racking up 20 hours after the catch here and there. So it's not that Rishie Rice is bad. I just agree a lot with what Fitz is saying, especially because we did another show. And I referenced it in a talk about it. I know what you guys have seen him as well is that the team is designing the passing game style for Kenneth Walker out of the backfield.

So like Fitz said, maybe some of those targets to Rishie Rice actually get lost. to Kenneth Walker, even if they do stay short. Jake, talk to us about your next player here. Ashton Gentie, ADP, RB6 overall, 10. So we went high here, high here on it. We did, and I thought I was going to be the one to throw you the curveball, is that like the projections love him, but I don't. But Fitz knows, and that's why he's already smiling because we did another show,

where we argued at nauseam about Gentie. But look, he got the more time on screen, get to talk up, Gentie. I'm going to go the opposite way and talk down, Jenty. just not a lot. If you want to watch the other show, too, I agree with a lot of what Fitz was talking about on that show. But this really came down to, and now mind you, the projections and the ranks have changed since I've put it in there because the rank adjusted one spot and the projections one of the other direction because I know this because I went through all the projections, all the rankings, and I look for a gap of at least four or more. Now it's only two, two spots between

projections and rankings. So Gentis collapsed a little bit, which is interesting because the projections went up and the ranking went down the spot. I don't know if I have that power fits is that I pulled a lot of people off Gentie in one day. But it really comes down to the projections aren't terrible. The projections are back end RB1. But that was my argument. That was my argument to Fitz is that I see him more as a back in RB1 than I do as top six, seven. And he was at six at the time of this and the projections. The rankings, the ADP were lower. I think it was, I think it was six and 10 because like I said, it was a four position gap or larger that I was looking for. And I was more in line with that.

And I think that if you look at it, or the ADP was six, the projections are 10. And the projections still love them, but the projections pointing out to the fact that, like, that 10 spot is about 14 and a half per game. It's a decent season, but that fills you in as most seasons as RB 10, 11, 12, which is really good because we just got a terrible season where he was a low end RB2. And my argument back to fifth was he would say that he has the upside. And I'm not saying I'm right and he's wrong, but I'm just bringing up what we talked about on the other show, as Fitz was saying, he sees the upside of potential top six.

And my pushback was he would need six points per game more than last year. If you want to tell me three or four and gets him to the back end RB1 conversation, sure, I have them as a back end RB1. I have him right there with Saquan, Barclay and the rest. But even the projections are showing that that jump that we're expecting with a better offense, a better offensive line. I agree with him about the health of the offensive line being a big factor. The changes in what was one of the most miserable cold offenses we've seen in some time to hope. that Kubiak fixes everything. But the quarterback situation is still question mark and all that kind of stuff

that where I say, you know what, 14 points per game, that's a hell of a jump for what we just saw how bad it was. That's still not enough to get me to RB6, whereas the ADP agrees with fits. I am actually on the side of the projections on this one, which is lower. But you know what? Let's debate it out here because we're looking at the projections. It's very interesting because basically what it's telling us is, hey, we're getting roughly the same receiving volume.

They have them projected for two less. touchdowns, 58 receptions about the same, 400-ish yards about the same. But the increase here in the projections is we're going to get more carries on the ground, hopefully some closer games, better coaching, as you said, and a little bit uptick in terms of yardage as well. But you're right. It's not a dramatic jump in terms of the projections here. So let's debate it because we got you guys on two sides.

I'm undecided either way here. I have not clicked Ash and Genties name thus far because I'm very pro. You guys know I'm pro H&. I'm pro Barclay. So it's the same range. Chase Brown, I could click any name there. And I don't find myself clicking Ashton Genty a ton there. So Pat, what is, what's your argument for him?

That the offensive line is going to be so much better, that it's not going to look like Ashton Genty. It's in a Bruce Lee movie every time he gets the ball with guys running at him from every direction behind the line of scrimmage. And so Tyler and Linderbaum, they add the best center arguably in the league. They get Colton Miller healthy. They get Jackson Power Johnson healthy again. And they get Clint Kubiak, who always seems to design his offenses that, like Matt LaFleur,

and I was saying earlier with Josh Jacobs, like the sum of the offensive line is always better than the parts with Clint Kubiak offense. So I think that's going to be better. More first downs, fewer three and outs. These are all going to lead to greater play volume for Ashton Genti. There's no one behind him. And I didn't even like Mike Washington very much as a problem. prospect. I mean, I really think there's nothing behind him and that GNT and Brock Bowers are going to

account for massive percentage of the yardage and touchdowns in this offense because wide receiver, that room is also pretty barren with talent. So I think it's going to be great. I mean, he was a pretty dazzling prospect with a pretty immaculate prospect profile. I still think he's that guy. And I just think the ecosystem is going to be so much better this year. Yeah, I'm just glad I was going to say that he didn't bring up the best shape ever. that he put on muscle and slim down. I was surprised you to bring that up fits. Trying to avoid that sort of training campaign as best I can, Jake.

Everyone's in the best shape ever. Even Debo came in looking good. I'm joking. Well, not really. He didn't. He came in looking better than we thought there. But before we move on to the next player here, support for today's show comes from Square,

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We're going to jump out of the early round players. I'm going to hit the mid-rounds, which honestly, guys, is often the one that people struggle with the most there because there's such a wide range of outcome. So we're going to talk about players being taken according to ADP between round six and 10 here. And Pat's going to start us off with Rome Adunze. Wide receiver 28 and ADP.

Overall, 64. There is the constant online debate here, Pat, about, is it losing. Luther Burden, is it Roma Dunezay? Where's the hype going? So talk to us about Romadunzee. Yeah, Tara, everyone is trying to read those tea leaves on how the targets are going to be split up in Chicago among Roma Dunezay, Luther Burton, and Colston Loveland. I'm not really sure what to think about it, but our projections seem pretty rosy for Roma Dunesay. You said, what, was it wide receiver 28? ADP? Yeah, wide receiver 23 in our projections with 63 catches for 980 yards and 8.1.1.000. one touchdowns. That puts him ahead in our projections of Ladd-McConkey, Jalen Waddle, and

Luther Burden. So a couple of weeks, weekends ago, I was at the Fantasy Football Expo, and I was talking to Jim Coventry of RodeWire. Jim is a Chicago guy, a Bears fan. I asked him when he thought about the Bears receivers, and Jim correctly pointed out that Bears head coach, Ben Johnson tends to speak his mind, say what he thinks, isn't coy about his feelings. I mean, Tara, you know, Ben Johnson hates Matt LaFleur and the Packers. He makes no effort to hide it. No, no

real effort to disguise his hatred with fake conviviality. Talks openly about his disdain for the Packers. Cool, cool. But Ben Johnson also seems to be pretty honest with the media when he talks about his players. And he has been gushing.

Just gushing about Luther Burden. Jim Coventry believes that's a reason to prefer burden over O'Don's and fantasy this season. And I kind of agree with Jim on this. But our projections do slightly prefer burden. I'm curious what you guys think about this. Yeah, it's interesting because I think you can, you know, tell by the 63 receptions, nearly a thousand yards eight touchdowns, you know, projections kind of show there that, again, we think it's coming through. It's the opposite of Rhe Rice, right? Whether he's roughly the same

productions, about a 40 difference in receptions there. We think it's coming through big plays here. Jake, what side are you on here with Romadunzei versus Luther Burton? Eating well shouldn't be complicated, but somehow it turns into recipes, prep, cleanup, and half your Sunday gone. Factors solves all that. These are fresh, ready-to-eat meals designed by dietitians, delivered to your door, and ready in just minutes. No prep, no cleanup, no excuses. And it's not just about convenience. You're getting real food, balanced nutrition, and zero artificial stuff.

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It's your girl, Sam J. And we're the host of everyone watches women's sports, a new podcast from Together and I heart women's sports. Because let's be real. Women's sports is giving us way too much to talk about these days. So Kelsey Finler, she became the first female solo roer to go from California to Hawaii. My first thought is, like, what's up with the snacks?

Like, what are we eating? The highlights, the rivalries, the breakout stars, the moments to take over your entire timeline. And the conversations that start during the game and somehow keep going all week. Every week, we're breaking down the biggest stories across women's sports. Naomi Osaka showing out, she beat Sabalinka. Shout out to you, Naomi. You get the palm, Naomi. You get the palm for that.

Because we're not just interested in what happened. We're interested in why everyone's talking about it. Because everyone watches women's sports. Listen to everyone watches women's sports. on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. I have 20 more fancy points for the season for Luther Burden in my projections. So I agree that Luther Burden is the guy, but I think the real, real guy is Colston Lufflin, which we've talked about before.

The real thing here is I think the difference is my projections are almost lockstep with fantasy pros on this one, but I still have burden. Not significantly, 20 points isn't the biggest gap, but significantly in the ranks where you're talking about wide receiver, 18, 19, 20 versus wide receiver 30, 31, because I just think that maybe the projections are accounting for more factors in the passing game than I have. And that's what it is. And I think there's going to be a lot of funneled in this offense.

I think it's going to be between the big three, Loveland and Adunze. I don't see a lot of the incite raleigh pieces getting involved here. I mean, D'Andre Swift out of the back, I'm talking about pure past catchers. And I think that's, that might be, that's what I'm assuming, might be the biggest difference. but I think that's why I go back to also just if you really believe that things are going to take off this year is why you buy Caleb Williams. The risk here was that I think that we all agree Luther Burden, it seems like a lot of these shows, I say these as the fantasy proto shows, are on Luther Burden well ahead of Roma Dunzee because of everything Fitzsett, including Ben Johnson speaks about his guys and loves his guys when he's like tells the truth. It's just because the risk is that it feels like it's Colston-Loveland end. And maybe if Luther Burden gets off to a slow start and Adunzee looks at any.

anything like he did at the beginning last year, and his foot does actually feel great like he says. It does, the best shape of his life. That there's games where you get those inconsistencies and maybe both of them finishes like a Y receiver 24, 26 range while Loveland continues just to be the guy, the top option at that tight end position. So I think that's a little bit of the risk here. Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. Maybe projections are on point here when it comes to Romadunze, but maybe underestimating

burden a little bit. Yeah, we've got that. we've got the exit of multiple bodies there. Chicago did a whole bunch of subtraction there, as opposed to other teams that did a whole bunch of addition there. So, right, targeting funnels down to the big three here, big things for Caleb Boym. So, yeah, that makes a ton of sense there.

But Jake, talk to us about player number three here. Harold Fanon Jr. tied in five in ADP. Overall, 64 there. Yeah, and this is another one where it went up a little bit in the projections. He actually was behind, I think, LaPorte, at the time of this, so there was a little bit bigger gap. The projections still love them, but the ADP was ahead, and I'm more an ADP in this one, and I think the projection should still arise, even with the quarterback situation,

because I know, we don't know if it's Watson Sanders. Heck, Dylan Gabriel is getting talked that he's looking the best in camp in this limited sample, but, I mean, what team is he playing with at that point, as in the second unit and everything like that. But the biggest takeaway here is that whether it's Concepcion, who I'm a big fan of, and it looks good through camp, whether it's Judy and a bounceback, whoever, blah, blah, blah. Zach Jackson of the athletic, multiple beat reporters are saying the same thing that look for Fanon to lead this team in targets, that he's going to be the one similar to, you know, a Bauer's

and McBride, and not in the fact that he's going to get 140 targets or that they'll be as efficient of those guys, but that he's the number one and they're just trying to figure out who the Y receivers are alongside of them. So for that case, at six to have these projections are not far off from mine. And mine are a little bit more aggressive because I am accounting for him being the number one target getter. But the touchdowns aren't that different because, no, I don't have a lot of faith in the Brown's offense scoring a lot of touchdowns this year. I wouldn't be surprised if we're talking about 20 on the season as being a high bar in the

passing game. But all that being said is that to get that kind of volume where you're talking about 120 plus targets and then you're looking at this is one of the highest reception leaders at 78. And those projections, I have them just over 80. I think I like 81. That's the real appeal about fan. And if you miss on that top group, the Loveland Bowers, McBrose, I'm happy so far waiting on Fandon

because it seems like people are taking those shots and Leporta bouncing back, Warren being the guy if Daniel Jones is healthy, and I wait two or three rounds and I just take Harold Fannetton. I think it's very reasonable. And the projections, you know, 78 receptions, 100 or 800, 12 yards, five touchdowns.

You know, reasonably conservative. Just a little tiny uptick compared to what he did in his rookie season. And, you know, as we've talked about with multiple other players here, you know, the one thing that Cleveland has going for them as, you know, as they try to figure out what on earth they're doing a quarterback is the fact that they did actively make moves to upgrade the offensive line.

Now, whether or not it will pan out to truly turn it around to an elite level or just an average level, it has to be better than what the output was last year because that was literally one of the worst by far in the league there. So at least they've made those changes. So regardless of who's starting at quarterback, they'll at least be behind a better line to help there. I do love the potential there for the rookies in both Casey Concepcion and Denzel Boston there. But at the end of the day, I kind of see them more so is pushing Jerry Judy out the way there eventually. And again, talking about a core three here of the rookies there and Harold Fanon,

Jr. as the strong veteran second year there makes a lot of sense. Pat, how do you feel about Harold Fanon Jr? I'm pretty excited to know that Jake is high on Fanon. Like, that's the one player. Jake and I have done a lot of shows together in the offseason. I don't think Fanon has ever come up on one of those shows. I didn't know where Jake stood. I've had trouble figuring out how to rank Fanon vis-a-vis Kyle Pitts and Sam Laporta. And I started with Fanon ahead of those two. I recently slid him behind those two.

Now I think I'm going to move him back ahead. Like I'm encouraged. What I, what I'm sandwiched. Do you? Makes you feel any better. Who's got? I go Loporto, I go Loporta, Fannin Pitts. Yeah.

I mean, I almost think you could argue those three in sort of any order. But what appeals to me about Fanon, like he might just be so much better than we have come to grips with. In his final college season at Bowling Green, he leads all FBS pass catchers, wide receivers and tight ends with 117 catches and 1555 yards and 13 games. I mean, he was the Bowling Green offense. Then he comes to the NFL, no one expecting him to have any sort of. of rookie year impact 72 catches for 731 yards and six touchdowns in a lousy offense. Like this guy might just be a complete super duper star and we're not fully grasping that yet. So yeah, I mean like the upside case for him, even in this kind of putrid offense is still

pretty, there's a case that, you know, he could be an upper half, upper half TE1, high end T.E.1. Makes sense there. I too have them kind of sandwiched. It's a range where you kind of feel good about, you know, multiple titans in general, the value that they're getting. I move them back and forth quite frequently, but it's such a nice range of mid-round titans there. Moving on to our next player here, we're going to jump here to players being taken after round 10.

So we're searching for the double-digit round value here, whether or not we believe it in or we're fading it on that one. Now I want to know what Pat's opinion is on Tyler Shuck here, because looking at these projections, they were, they were very fancy projections here. QB 21 in ADP, overall 139 here. Just a note there, real-time ADP has him at 165. I wanted to note that because that was a pretty dramatic difference in terms of what I was looking at. You can see real-time ADP on Fantasyprose.com as well. So Pat, talk to us about Tyler Schock here. I think fancy is a great way to describe the projections for Tyler Chuck Tara. Almost 4,000 passing yards. He's projected for 3,977. 22.1 touchdown passes,

329 rushing yards, 4.1 TD runs. So the projections put him at QB17 ahead of Baker, Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love. I've got Chuck at QB21. He was impressive last year. He challenged defenses downfield, which is something Spencer Rattler had not been doing for the Saints early in the season. Shuck fully unlocked Chris Olavé, who had gotten off to kind of a sluggish start. And Chuck adds some rushing value, too. There is a lot to like here. My concern is that Chuck was not exactly facing a murderer's row of defenses when he was cooking down the stretch last season. Makes his first start against the Rams in week nine. Kind of just meh in that game, 176 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception. Then the rest of his starts when he

really got it going, we're against the Panthers, Falcons, dolphins, buccaneers, the Panthers again, the Jets, the Titans, and the Falcons again. So no fearsome defenses in any of those last eight starts. I'm cautiously optimistic about Chuck, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a little bit of statistical recoil in his second season. You know, that's the advantage of the NFC South there, those defenses who are unfortunately falling apart there even further with all of the injuries that we have here in training camp.

He's an ending injuries there on defense for both the Panthers and the Falcons there, unfortunately. I won't lie, Pat. I do like Tyler Shuck. Not that I'm not that I'm trusting him as my QB one in one QB, but he's been a fun super flex target for me, especially if that rushing upside continues through. That's a little fancy part there that I was throwing in. That's a 78 attempts.

That's a good little amount there. So they think he's going to keep running despite the upgraded rush attack here with the addition of Travis EGN, maybe hopefully a healthy Alvin Camara in terms of checkdowns there, and then all the added weapons as well. So, you know, I hear what you're saying, but I am, I am feeling him a little bit, although I will say, 4,000 feels pretty optimistic. But at the end of the day, it is a Kellyn Moore run offense. And we do know that he loves to push pace and chuck the ball there. So perhaps he can get there. Jake, do you have any pros and cons on Tyler Shuck there? No, I just think part of it is perception and the fact of how bad it was to start last year

to go from somebody who throws it five yards at a time to somebody who knows how to throw it 20 yards downfield was the biggest thing. And then Chris Alave's ascension and everything like that. It's just it was kind of a, like I said, it's perception of how bad it was and then it was actually okay. Like even to his point, and I'm not dismissing his point to make this clear, but even dismissing the fact of the strength of schedule, it was just a, better half of the second half of the season because of how bad the first half was. And then you look at Shuck and his ability and yeah, he can throw and he can run. I think the big question is we're talking about somebody who's still, and yes, I love the

addition of Jordan Tyson as much as anybody, but somebody who didn't throw very many touchdowns and starts. I think it was 10 and 9. Had a few games with zero. Had a few games. We were struggling to get 200 yards. And I'm not saying he can't make a leap forward in year two. I just say the leap forward in year two for me gets him to that mid-QB2.

conversation with like a Baker Mayfield rebound season hoping to happen. Kyle Murray with the Vikings, because you brought out the other aspect of it. Yeah, he will run. I think that you're looking at somebody who'll get three, 400 on the ground. That's why I bring up Baker Mayfield is like two years ago Baker on the ground. Do I think he gets 4,000 plus yards and 40 touchdowns? Absolutely not. I think that there's a good chance that you might see mid three, upper 3,000,

like a 37, 3,800, like a Caleb Williams. I think we might see like a Caleb Williams a little bit more rushing from two years ago, which would put him as a mid-QB2 and, maybe we're thinking more about him. Okay, your three can make that jump into QB1 territory, maybe, but I just think he's going to be a QB2. Jake, do you agree with Tara? Like, are you in a super flex draft?

Are you comfortable with Shuck as your QB2, or do you want better? I want better. I want at least, so I want at least two top 18s. It depends if I go super early on a QB. I want a top 15 with them because I don't want to throw away that advantage. but my 18th cutoff is actually, it's funny enough, it's Baker Mayfield.

After that, I have like the Jordan. Like, Jordan Love, Tyler Shuck, I think it had very similar seasons. And I think that for the value, that's why you take Shuck. But I wouldn't be super comfortable. If I have Shuck as my two,

I'm definitely being one of the six teams that comes out with a third starter. Yeah. Very interesting on that one. I like that. More, more aggressive on quarterback in Superflex this season before that cut off into the kind of later round,

low-in QB-2s. Before we move on to, our next player here. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Some sports fans call this the slow period until football season. And of course, we know that you guys love football. But on Hard Rock Bet, it is baseball season. And this summer, Hard Rock Bet has the hottest betting odds in Florida in introducing the 10 cent summer sale. Big juice fee, whatever you call it. hard rock bet is cutting their cut on winners spreads and over under pregame baseball bets, same bets, better odds. If you are ready to step into the batter's box, sign up with hard rock

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Moving on to our final player here in the double-digit round values. I hope you don't break my heart on this one, Jake. It is, it is Quentin Johnston here with a wide receiver 42 ADP overall 106. And just a note there again on real-time ADP that ADP is continuously on the rise there. Talk to us about Quentin Johnson, Jake. Well, so I'll give you the projections because you've usually been giving them for us, and I'll give them the fact that it's 53, 755, and 6. So I'll give you a second line for Quentin Johnston, 51, 735, and 8.

That was last year in 14 games. So you're telling me, and kudos to the projections team, like I do my own, it's a very hard thing to do. But we were telling him with all the excitement of Mike McDaniel, the all excitement of Justin Herbert behind a healthy offensive line that everybody keeps going on and on and on about that. Like, look at how good he was before the offensive lines started falling apart. And all these factors that we love about the Chargers and we're projecting a full season to be

exactly what we just saw essentially from last year, from Quentin Johnston, actually two fewer touchdowns than he had last year. Look, I know the risk, and I've brought it up before, I know the risk is, Tray Harris shows more in year two, that Brennan Thompson is getting loved, like, Brennan Thompson's a rookie. That was later in the draft. Like, I don't think he's a threat, but I'm just putting out there like people think it might be a threat. Aranda Gasson could take off in year two, and I do like gas, and maybe like all these

factors mean that Ladd-McConkey is the only one we want and everybody else is just the sum of the parts. But the upside potential is that what we've seen from McDaniel before, and I know it's a completely different team and different offense, but is when you talk about your top two targets in his passing game, and that's potentially Quentin Johnson is the two. There's risk, but at this point where he's being drafted, he doesn't end up hitting in the first two or three weeks, you drop him. But where he's going into year four, he's somebody that's a first round draft pick that we knew had concerns coming out of college. And then he shows those concerns in the NFL and everybody's like,

I don't want Quentin Johnston. Well, like, he was exactly who he thought he was, to use that quote a little bit. And then, like, he started the show development finally last year, even more than the year before. Actually, there was some flashes in 2024 too. But he's starting to see that and really made that turn last year to some consistency on top of it, including his hands. And now Mike McDaniel is going to help everybody on this team except Quentin Johnston.

I don't buy it. I am in on Quentin Johnston. I have him higher. I have him over 800 yards. but I actually have them approaching 900 yards and I have him approaching nine touchdowns because I have fractions of touchdowns with my projections.

So I think there's a lot of upside where that could even be underscoring what Quentin Johnson does if, and again, this is an admitted if, he is the clear number two in sitting in an like an 18 to 21 target share this year. I can breathe now. I can breathe because, yes, 100%.

Thank you so much on that one. You know, when I look at the projections, I'm like, yeah, that's a baseline. projection that is very similar to previous years. But we make the excuses when we look at, you know, Ladd-McConkie who, you know, Quentin Johnson did outperform in terms of fantasy points last season. When we look at Ladd-McConkey, we make the excuse like, hey, what he did last season, that was not him. That was not on him. Obviously, the offense in terms of the system just doesn't benefit the past game whatsoever. We know the offensive line was an issue. So we know that

Ladd-McConkie is better than that. And he'll put up the numbers that we expect this year. But we don't say that about Quentin Johnson. We're treating it as if it's going to be the exact same thing, despite the fact that we have upgrades across the board in health and scheme there. So I am 100% on board with you with that. And I'm actually going to clip this and use this as my personal Jake Sealy defense for the remainder of the draft season there as I put out my defense of Quinn Johnson. So thank you so much. Pat, are you on board with us on this one? I think I'm getting more on board after hearing you guys talk about him. I'm loud and opinion. but Quentin Johnson is,

Johnston is strangely one of the guys I don't have a strong opinion on this year. I've been, I didn't completely abandon him when he had the drop issues, and I'm not to the point of being a Quentin Johnston apologist either. And I do think it's kind of strange that the projections are pretty static with him from last year to this year when we've now got the enthusiasm about the Mike McDaniel offense and a offensive line that isn't going to be letting the pocket crumple on Justin Herbert after two seconds on some of these dropbacks. So there is reason to be

excited. I guess the one bit of hesitation I have, like I'm not 100% sure that Quentin Johnson is better than Trey Harris. That's my only reservation. It's a fair, fair assessment there, for sure. Before we move on to our, actually, before we close out the show here, we have a listener Q&A section here for you guys. We turned to you. We turned to you, the listeners. Pat asked in Discord, which players do you guys think will have much bigger seasons than their ADP would suggest and outperform their projections? And y'all hit us with some fantastic answers. Quite frankly, you hit us with stuff that we have literally already talked about here. We had responses of Tyler Shuck, Jonathan Brooks, Giovante Williams, Emeka Abuka,

of course. We've already talked about that one there. He was obviously the most popular answer, which is funny because, again, we were talking about the fact that the ADP has not risen to an egregious level. So we're still getting value on him, despite the fact that everybody and their mother is in on him. And then the other player mentioned there was Carnell Tate, which I thought was very interesting because I don't feel like this one gets discussed enough here. Pat, I'll start off with you here in this list of players that we got from the listeners here. Again, guys, thank you so much for responding. What is your, what's your outlook on these guys? I

so I'm interested that Ibuka was named by so many of our Discord peeps as a player so maybe that means they think that the projections are too rosy for Abuka and they regard him as more of a low end wide receiver too which is interesting

so maybe we'll have to start talking up Ameca Ibuka even more on this show to get people on board I'm bullish on Jonathan Brooks so I'm cool with any optimistic projections on him. I do think he's going to pass Chuba Hubbard at some point. Tyler Shuck talked about Cornell Tate's an interesting one for me. I just, I worry that maybe Wondell Robinson is the target leader for the Titans this year and not Carnell Tate, as so many people are assuming. And our

projections are sort of conservative with his touchdowns, only 4.5 for a guy who was fantastic on deep balls last year and had some, you know, a lot of big plays for the Buckeyes. But, you know, pretty bullish to have Cornell Tate for over 900 yards. I feel like the yardage might be overly optimistic and the touchdowns a little conservative. Yeah, that one is the interesting one for me, particularly because his ADP is very reasonable. It comes in that range of guys where you start questioning like, okay, what role are we going to have? Are they going to bounce back? They've maybe had one or two struggle years there, guys that are, you know, maybe a little bit older dealing with injury issues.

So it's a very interesting range once you get to that kind of wide receipts. receiver 30-ish plus five or six there. So that one, I agree with you on the fact that Wondell Robinson could very well be a factor here. I guess it's just a matter of how much do we trust Cam Ward to progress for it because he did look fantastic at the end of the season, someone who was deserving of being the overall number one pick there. How much can Brian Daible get this offense progressing for it here? So that's also one that I'm watching to see because the projections are aggressive, potential rookie of the year there. So we'll see how that one pans out.

Jake, what are your thoughts on this list? Yeah, to talk about Tate, since we're talking about them, I did an article a few years ago in the athletic of the hit rate of rookie wide receivers that were taken in round one. And within the first year for them, and my bar was top 36 overall or in fantasy points per game because you want to account for some of these guys' injuries and stuff like that. And the hit rate was exactly 50%. it was half and half over the past 10 years. So you look at the first round for this year and you would assume that we're going to see

two-ish, maybe three. And with Cardinal Tate, it feels like a good spot. I'm with you guys in the fact that I don't necessarily think Wanda leads, but I think they're close enough. But I know that Tate will do more on a per reception basis. Well, I don't say I know, but like I would assume given Tate's ability. But there's the risk factor there. I just said it's a good position to be in, which is why I'm kind of okay with this.

My projections aren't too far off. I do have it for over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns. It really hinges on Cam Ward. But the bigger one here is kind of skip past it fits, but you did mention it. I'm assuming the readers are as flabbergasted by Giovante Williams as I am as somebody who is just 11th overall 12th fantasy points per game at running back. And the projections down ticked them across the board. And what changed for the Cowboys?

Well, a healthy Dak Prescott, we're assuming for a. full season as of today. I would know that's always a risk, but also Jaden Blue year two? What are we doing? Why is Javante Williams getting so much hate down at 18? 18 and running back in projections. I'm at 13, like on the heels of O'Marion Hampton, Kenneth Walker at Ashton Genty. I will not let the slander for Javentay Williams stand. There we go. I'm glad you did not skip over that one. You know, perhaps Jaden Blue. It's always, you know, sometimes people get, you know, the rookie prospects that they get very attached to and they want to believe in the hype is going to happen there. And maybe Jane Blue is one of those guys. But I agree with you. There's zero logical reason.

If anything, maybe we see an improvement as the Cowboys continue to try and retool the offensive line and hopefully get that defense back on track. So games are closer. Perhaps they can maybe lead on the ground game a little bit more there. But he feels like such a safe option. So I do feel that the projections are kind of underselling him there a little bit. Yes. Safe? I guess my one concern is that. he was like objectively pretty bad as a pass catcher last year, like really bad. And not that he could get better. He could get better. He could get better. No, I'm saying he doesn't need to. Oh, yeah, right. He doesn't. He was so good as a runner. I agree. Although, you know, like a little

better at first, tailed off a bit with the efficiency metrics down the stretch. And I feel like he ran pretty pure with touchdowns last year. But then again, like it's true who is going to challenge him. I don't think Jaden Blue ever cuts in his, at least not. his early down workload in what should be a really good offense with an offensive line that's good and stable, not a lot of turnover in that offensive line. So I see the point. I do think he looks like a pretty safe option at running back. I just feel like it feels like I'm walking into a trap with Giovante Williams for some reason. Like I wound up with him in a lot of leagues last year just because he was going so late. I just, I worry about the, he's not as appealing in

the fourth round this year as he was in the eighth round last year. sure, no longer a discount. I did have the dumbest amount of Devante William shares last season for that exact reason. Um, passing upside does keep him out of that top five, but, you know, still low end RB1 very much in the realm of logical outcomes here. If these projections, if these projections change how you value any of these players, make sure your rankings reflect it and go to the cheat sheet creator where you can build your custom rankings straight from projections, move projection, backed values up your board and adjust everything for your league settings and draft strategy is a great tool, guys. You need to take advantage of it and go to

fantasy pros.com slash sheet or download the fantasy pros app and build your custom cheat sheet today. That wraps things up for this show. Thank you guys for being here. Before we head out, make sure that you like the video and make sure that you are subscribed to the YouTube channel and the podcast as well so that you do not miss out on any fantasy football content as we go through draft season here and that you are checking out all the fantasy pros tools to put your fantasy teams in the best position for 2026 for Pat Fitzmorest for Jake Seeley. I'm Tara Roberts. Thank you for tuning in.

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