The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - ARE THE RANKINGS WRONG? | Top 75 Overall Player Rankings & Impact (Ep. 1571)

Episode Date: May 17, 2025

Find out what Expert Consensus Rankings you should and shouldn't trust! Join Chris Welsh, Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice for their breakdown of the top 75 overall player rankings and what issues they take with them. Should Las Vegas Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty be drafted before Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley? Are experts overvaluing Kansas City Chiefs WRs Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy? Plus, is it game over for veterans like Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill and Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans? The Pros pull back the curtain on their personal overall ranks! Timestamps: (May be off due to ads) Introduction - 0:00:00FantasyPros ECR Rankings - 0:02:41Ranks 1-15 - 0:03:39Ashton Jeanty (RB - LV) - 0:04:17Saquon Barkley (RB - PHI) - 0:07:34Brock Bowers (TE - LV) - 0:09:42CeeDee Lamb (WR - DAL) - 0:13:18DraftKings Sportsbook - 0:15:26Ranks 16-30 - 0:17:06Drake London (WR - ATL) - 0:17:44Christian McCaffrey (RB - SF) - 0:21:25Chase Brown (RB - CIN) - 0:25:03Tyreek Hill (WR - MIA) - 0:27:28FantasyPros Draft Simulator - 0:30:43Ranks 31-45 - 0:31:31Garrett Wilson (WR - NYJ) - 0:32:01Mike Evans (WR - TB) - 0:35:01Rahsee Rice (WR - KC) - 0:37:58DJ Moore (WR - CHI) - 0:41:18Ranks 46-60 - 0:43:58Chuba Hubbard (RB - CAR) - 0:44:28Aaron Jones (RB - MIN) - 0:51:47Xavier Worthy (WR - KC) - 0:47:57DeVonta Smith (WR - PHI) - 0:54:01Ranks 61-75 - 0:56:59T.J. Hockenson (TE - MIN) - 0:57:40Jordan Addison (WR - MIN) - 0:58:44Outro - 1:00:35 Helpful Links: DraftKings Pick6 – Download the DraftKings Pick6 app NOW on Google Play or the App Store and use code FANTASYPROS. This offer is for new customers to play $5, get $50 in Pick6 credits. Only on DraftKings Pick6. The crown is yours.  Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org in Connecticut. Must be eighteen plus, age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction. Pick6 not available everywhere, including New York and Ontario. Void where prohibited. One per new customer. Bonus awarded as non-withdrawable Pick6 Credits that expire in thirty days. Limited time offer. See terms at https://pick6.draftkings.com/promos. Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator - Our Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator lets you complete a mock in minutes with no waiting between picks! Customize your league settings to match your league’s exact format. Premium subscribers can test trade scenarios by mocking with their traded draft picks. Prepare for rookie drafts AND dynasty startup drafts in one place! Use the Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator to dominate your rookie draft today at fantasypros.com/simulator! Discord - Join our FantasyPros Discord Community! Chat with other fans and get access to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Come get your questions answered and BE ON THE SHOW at fantasypros.com/chat Leave a Review – If you enjoy our show and find our insight to be valuable, we’d love to hear from you! Your reviews fuel our passion and help us tailor content specifically for YOU. Head to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts and leave an honest review. Let’s make this show the ultimate destination for fantasy football enthusiasts like us. Thank you for watching and for showing your support – https://fantasypros.com/review/ BettingPros Podcast – For advice on the best picks and props across both the NFL and college football each and every week, check out the BettingPros Podcast at bettingpros.com/podcast, our BettingPros YouTube channel at youtube.com/bettingpros, or wherever you listen to podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.

you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, friends, and welcome in to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. I'm Chris Welsh, and today we are digging into some ranks. Yeah, it's early in the year. But it doesn't mean we're not talking about the Big Dogs. We have got your top 75 overall ranks. We're going to be going through it via the Fantasy Pro's ECR expert, consensus ranks, all of our amazing rankers, creating one. big old glob of amazing rankness. Well, we're going to look at the impact.

What could possibly be wrong? And we'll be comparing it against the great and powerful Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmore is here as we go through the entire litany of it. Erickson, I ask you this question real quick. Is it too early to be digging heavily this much into redraft overall ranks? No, it is not too early because you see a lot of carryover from these rankings that go into bestball rankings. And it's funny, I think I was writing an article for the site,

and I typed in early rankings, and then I thought to myself, is this early? Well, I think early was like February rankings when we were putting stuff out. So we're in May. Summer is just a brown in the corner. This is the time to be in the weeds digging really deep and then adjusting everything after preseason usage. So again, we need to stick to our priors and come back to,

oh, this is where we stood in the, when we were doing the research, doing the math, and not being, you know, pulled in a bad direction by, oh, well, this guy played all the snaps with the preseason with the starters. Don't be swayed. You know, Fidsey, a really interesting experiment would be to like look at what the ranks look like right now and then watch the crazy preseason stuff, you know, where everyone's reacting to one guy getting two snaps and 30 yards. And then look at the ranks right before like all the major draft weekends happen and see what it looks like. Because what I'm getting at is like, you know, with what we're seeing today versus your ranks versus E.C.

are. Do you expect there to be some big crazy volatility still going to happen? Or do you think this is going to really have like a nice shelf life that might even get people paired back down about the craziness of preseason? I mean, there will be some players where we see rankings volatility Welsh. There always is with training camp news, injury stuff, or even just like depth chart speculation. A coach says something in a particular interview that makes it sound like he's super high on a player or maybe a little sour on a player and that moves the needle for ADP and ECR. So we will see things like that, but it's never too early. We've got to get the jump on all those people in our leagues who don't pay attention to football news until after the 4th of July. That's right.

This is a trick question. It's never too early. And that's why we're here for you. And that's why we've got all the amazing tools here at Fantasy Pros and these ECR ranks that we're going to be talking about. You can go and do your own research, Fantasypros.com slash rankings, half PPR, full PBR, Dynasty, Superflex, whatever it is that you've got, we've got those ranks, and the ECR's got you covered, where you can see who has them the highest, who's got them the lowest, the individual rankers. There's a lot of customization you can do with it. Fantasypros.com slash rankings.

If you want to check it out for yourself, but we've got you guys covered right here because we're going to bring up the big boards. We are going to go in groupings of 15. I think you guys playing a bunch of 15, so little bit of a baseball thing, playing in 15 team leagues. But we're going to go in those groupings of 15. I will list them out. And then both of our fine gentlemen here, our analysts are going to talk about some differences they have in their own personal ranks versus ECR.

Because again, this isn't their ranking, but their rankings do make a important piece to how this ECR comes out. So going over to the big board, we're looking at 1 through 15. Jamar Chase is your leader at the tippy top here, wide receiver coming in at number 1, followed by Sequin Barclay at 2, Bijon, Justin Jefferson, Jemir Gibbs, C.D. Lam, That is Tier 1. So that is the Tier 1 that is identified by all of our rankers, the big core players, which you've got three running backs and three wide receivers, funny enough. 7 through 15, Pocunakua, Amanra, St. Brown, Malik neighbors, Ashton Jinty,

coming in at 10, followed by Nico Collins, Brian Thomas, Derek Henry, Devon A-chan, and Prok Bowers. So we've got some interesting ones in there. Let's start with the rookie. And Pat, let's start with you then real quick. Ashton Jentee, ECR 10. how much higher can he go? We've gone down this road before.

I think everyone is going to test the rankings. I think it was maybe you and me with Jake Seeley, where we were really pushing it earlier in the season, or maybe it was me and Erickson, where it was like how high can Ash and Genty go? How much higher do you think he can go in your own personal ranks? And what is maybe the ceiling of what draft season he can get pushed to? I have him at seven overall Welsh,

and I wouldn't be surprised if he got as high as, four or five, depending on how things go in in training camp and the preseason. I went back and looked at the Fantasy Pros historical ADP from 2017, the year Sequin Barclay entered the league. Sequin's rookie year, ADP was seventh overall behind Todd Gurley, Lavian Bell, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Brown, and Alvin Camara. Hard to believe that was only eight years ago, huh? Sequin and Camara are the only one still around.

But Sequin paid off on that seventh overall ADP. He had 2,028 yards from scrimmage, 15 touchdowns as a rookie. He finished as the RB2 and a half-point PPR, just 2.3 points behind Leader Todd Gurley. I don't need to wait until the back end of the first round of draft Ashton Genty just because he hasn't compiled any sort of NFL resume yet. We know the prospect profile is extraordinary just like it was with Sequin Barclay eight years ago. Genty is positioned for a big, big workload with the Raiders. His play caller is going to be Chip Kelly, who operates at a fast pace.

My only real concern is that the Raiders weren't a very good run-blocking team last year. They ranked 30th in the league in adjusted line yards. But then again, the Giants ranked 29th in adjusted line yards in Sequin's rookie season, and he did okay for himself that year. Erickson, true or false? Ashen Jente is RB4 at the end of this year. False, because he finishes. the top three running back.

And I set you up. I knew a list coming up. We're not talking about him on your list here, but where do you have, Gentie? I have him five. So that's, I want him on my fantasy team. When I do a lot of these rankings for 2025, I'm thinking about, okay, who drafting at the top of 2006? Isn't it not Ash and Gentie?

Wouldn't he be one of the best candidates to be who's the 101 next season? Yeah, maybe it's not perfect in week one for Ashen Jendi again. He's a rookie. but we've seen not only receivers hit the ground running, but it's always rookie running backs, especially ones that are drafted this highly. Again, it's a little bit of a throwback where we don't usually see running backs go this high in the NFL draft nowadays,

but when we do, when we see a guy go sixth overall, we have to take advantage of this. This is a rare special player, and the Raiders recognize that they have a ton of needs on their team. They're like, nah, we're going to take the best running back. He's the best player. And obviously, running back was a neat for them as well, but they could have gone another direction. They could have drafted another offensive lineman.

But they didn't. They're like, we want Ashton Jenty. And I think having stability at quarterback, which, you know, Smith, I think that's helpful. He's someone that's going to dump the ball off to Ashton Jenty. So I think the wheels are up. And I want youth. I want the young buck on my team to finish the season strong. So give me Ashton Jenty and his 350 touches. Let's get spicy here for a minute. Let's cause some comments to pop up in the in the YouTube video.

Because let's talk about Sequin Barkley, ECR number two. So he is the number one running back, according to all of the aggregate analyst, number two. So number one running back, number two overall. Not for Mr. Andrew Erickson. Andrew Erickson. I know the answer to this, but let's hear it. Sequin Barclay or Ashton Genty this year? I'm drafted Ashton Jentee.

I'm not drafting Sequel Barclay. And I have him ranked at 10. I'm not going to argue if he should be 10, 9, 8, 7. I don't think that he should be the number one running back ranked. I don't think he should be the number one overall pick ranked because he's coming off season where he touched the ball nearly 500 times. And this is a process play for me. Chasing the running back that led the NFL in touches the year before is essentially

the kiss of death for running backs the following year. We just saw it this past year with Chris McCaffrey. Year before that, Josh Jacobs fell off a cliff. Only two running backs have finished as RB-1s the following year after leading the NFL and touches since 2013. And Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that entire time frame to do it and finish inside the top five back-to-back seasons. So even if Sequin finishes top five, he's still not number one.

So I'm just going with the process play. I get that if he stays healthy, I'm probably going to be wrong, especially if they banned the tush push and Saquembourgly scores 20 touchdowns. But just based on what we've seen historically, based on the trends that I think hold some weight as we are projecting these players into the future, I'm just going to fade Sequon. And that's my strategy. Pat, Gentie or Barclay for you? I've got Barclay ranked higher right now.

I've got a RB2 behind B2. behind Bejohn. No, I totally get it, Erickson. I mean, 482 touches last year, if you include playoffs, age 28, I totally get it. But I guess the one thing I would say in Sequin's defense is that he probably does have the best offensive ecosystem of any running back in the league. Very interesting. Very interesting for all of you want to know Gentie or Barclay comments drop them for the overall ranks. A little bit of a different, not as much of a difference as you would potentially think from two to ten here. Let's go, Pat, you got another one in the top 10 here that I think is really interesting.

We're back into seeing, or top 15, we're seeing a tight end. A tight end is pushing back. ECR 15. You got Brock Bowers even higher, though. First round tight ends, always make my stomach queasy. Brock Bowers doesn't quite do it, but you're pushing him higher than ECR 15 overall. How much higher?

12th overall. And I do think Brock Bowers should go at the turn in 12-team drafts. Travis Kelsey used to go late in the first round in most fantasy drafts. And while I personally was not a first-round Travis Kelsey guy, I totally understood it. Tight-end is always such a problematic position. And Kelsey was an emphatic solution to that problem. Here's the thing. I think it's even easier to justify Bowers as a first-rounder in 2025 than it was with Kelsey a few years ago.

Bowers played most of his rookie season at the age of 21. He had 112 catches and almost 1,200 yards receiving. Even though the Raiders had one of the worst QB situations in the league, Bowers finished third among all pass catchers and receptions. That includes wide receivers. He was behind only Jamar Chase and Amunras, St. Brown, as a tight end at age 21. And now the Raiders have an aggressive downfield thrower in Gino Smith.

And again, we have the Chip Kelly fact. factor, fast pace, a lot of plays. And by the way, Zach Hertz had some pretty good years under Chip Kelly when they were in Philly together back in the day. So, yes, I do think Bowers is a clear tier above anyone else at tight end. I love George Kittle, but he's getting older, and his usage can kind of vary from game to game. A lot of times they just use him more as a blocker. Bowers is faster than Trey McBride, had a much better college career, doesn't have the touchdown allergy like McBride does. So I really think you can make a strong case for Bowers being a back end of the first round, tight end. Pretty cool wheel you could do in a 12-team league. You got Brian Thomas and Brock Bowers. That's a pretty good start, which I think most of us would be relatively comfortable with unless you don't like tight-ins.

So Erickson, I guess really the only thing is, is does Brock Bowers belong in the first round? Loaded question, of course. Does he belong in the first round? So I have him right outside, so I'm pretty close to ECR, so I have him at 16. so fully fading Brock Bowers. And that's not really the case here. Because I think that Fitzlays out a really good point, just how talented Brock Bowers is a situation.

I felt better about being lower on Bowers when it wasn't Gino Smith as the quarterback. But then when they landed him, I'm like, man, like this is like a really good spot for Brock Bowers. Because at least you could have made the argument, well, it's going to be bad quarterback play again. Can he do it again? But he's got Gino Smith.

So I feel good about that. And I feel, I think it's really more about just how you're attacking the tight end position. It's not that I want to fade Bowers. It's more or less I want to draft late round tight end. Like that's the strategy I want to go with. And I know last year, Bowers obviously was a late round tight end. And you talk about, yes, some of the early tight ends hit, such as like a trade McBride, but some of the early round tight ends were also really bad last

year. And if you had gone early round tight end, what did that mean? You missed out on Brock Bowers potentially as a rookie. You missed out on Jonu Smith, who finishes the tight end four. So I don't always love pigeon hoeing myself. Like Brock Bowers is my tight end. I'm locked and loaded. I'm not going late round tight. I'm not going to the waiver wire for a tight end. So that's the only hesitance I have about him, but I don't have any problem with his rank in where he is, but the reason for not picking him where he is going in drafts or in ECR, which is because, hey, I like the receivers here, like this receiver running back pairing, and I'm going to take tight end. I'm going to punt it off the position. The top of the wide receivers in the first round for Erickson's last one,

they're pretty interesting, obviously. Jamar Chase is kind of back. Justin Jefferson has reestablished. CD Lamb, that one kind of stands out. ECR6, you definitely could see there's more upside. And Erickson, you have got him higher amazingly. He is one of very, very few players that you have above Ashton Genti, a different position, of course. But C.D. Lamb, you're higher than ECR. What's your take on, I mean, is this a potential number one? Like, could you see C.D. Lamb overtaking even Jamar Chase this year? Yeah, I think it is because who were we draft? Who was the consensus number one receiver last year? I had Chase, but ECR had Ceddy Lamb.

So what happened between this year and last year where, oh, and now because Lamb got hurt, Dak got hurt. Well, now Cedley Lamb can't be wide receiver one. We saw him have a monster season in 2003 with a healthy Dach Prescott. He's getting Dack Prescott back. Now, I get Dack has been banged up. He's been dealing with injuries, getting older. But when Brian Schottenheimer was the offensive play caller, 2003, that's the year we saw D.C.

And C.D. Lamb explode. So I wanted to point this out because I can't rank Justin Jefferson ahead of Ced Lam because I know who Dack Prescott is. And I don't know who J.J. McCarthy is as an NFL quarterback. And that concerns me. So for ECR to have Justin Jefferson. ahead of C.D. Lamb, it just kind of like, well, last year it wasn't like this, and we had question marks about Jefferson. And I mean, if Dak Prescott hadn't gotten injured,

I think Lamb would have finished inside the top of three because he was playing pretty well the first seven games with Dak Prescott, top five fantasy numbers per game. So, yeah, I like Cid Lamb a lot. I think that he's coming at a discount, I think. So Fitsy, C.D. Lam or Justin Jefferson? Oh, man, I've got a neck and neck right now. I do have Jefferson ranked a little bit higher. I'm not as worried about the McCarthy, the quarterback factor as Erickson is. But like you can absolutely, I have no beef whatsoever with taking C.D. Lamb ahead of Justin Jefferson. And if faced with that choice, I think I would want to split it up like 50, 50. Oh yeah. If you were if you were like consolidating like 10 drafts, you're trying to have just different shares of it.

Well, it's a very interesting question. One that we are going to watch in EECR as we get closer to draft season. We've got the next 15 coming up. But first, it's officially the best time of the year for hoops. fans. Playoff drama, buzzer beaters, all the chaos we live for. And if you're done, just watching and ready to actually win some cash, you got to check out Pick Six from Draft Kings. Nobody's dropping better payouts than Pick Six. Hit six picks, and that's 25 times your cash. And if you beat your competition, you can be looking at a 500x bag in your pocket. It's super simple. Just select your picks, track your score, and go for those big time prizes. No gimmicks, just straight up fun. Pick six is

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Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a podcast. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about, what we should call it. We were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers.

This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad,

Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy.

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Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel. Michael and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Jen should win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay.

Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Gentlemen, let's go picks 16 through 30. the next 15 here, and we are going to kick it off with my boy, Christian McCaffrey,

falling all the way down at 16. That is RB 7 on the list. AJ Brown, Bucky Irving, Drake, London, Josh Jacobs. So that rounds out your top 20. Starting at 21, we've got Jonathan Taylor, Ladd-McConkey, T. McBride, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. So we got two quarterbacks at 24, 25, Kyron Parris, Jackson, Smith, and Jigva. And this moves us into a tier 4, which includes Chase Brown, T. Higgins, and Tyreek Hill.

That is 16 through 30. in some degree, second, third round picks for most in fantasy. Erickson, why don't we start with you here? And we're talking about a wide receiver in Drake London, ECR 19. There's a, let's say, what is he?

Wide receiver 10 on this list, which is pretty good setup. But you've got him quite a bit higher. So much so he's a first round pick for you this season. So let's hear the rank on Drake London and why he's so high. So I have Drake London, my 11th ranked overall player. and it's because I love his red zone potential with Michael Pennix.

You know, talking about how Jamar Chase last year, what could we have seen when we're trying to project him? What made me so bullish on him being the wide receiver one in 2024? And it was because the guy commanded a high level of red zone targets. And when you look historically at who is the number one receiver in fantasy football every single year, it's the guy, okay, you score the most points, of course, but it's the guy who sees the most red zone targets. and all Drake London has done since entering the NFL,

besides having mostly horrible quarterback play, is command red zone targets. Over the last three seasons, he has led the NFL and more receivers in red zone target rate. So basically, whenever they're in the red zone, he has the highest rate of being targeted. So last year, end of the year, 23 red zone targets, that time for the third most among all wide receivers.

And he's also a target hog, third highest target rate per outrun at 30%. With Michael Pennix, as his quarterback last year, He was targeted on 41% of his routes run. Look, I think Michael Pettix was a bit of an incomplete. We didn't see a full season out of him. But if he takes that next step entering year two as the full-time entrenched starter, the team is obviously very behind him as the number one guy.

I think Drake Linden could be a top three, if not the number one overall receiver, if he works well when it comes to touchdowns. Because I think that's what his ceilings. I think that he could score 15 touchdowns attached to Michael Pinnock. So, again, the only thing I could see going against this would be if Bejohn ends up getting all the time. touchdowns. Either way, I both, I like the RB one for the Falcons and I like the wide receiver one for the falcons. So that's why I'm really bullish on Drake London. Fidt, let me take a different

take on asking you about Drake London. I feel like we've had quite a few years of heavy wide receiver, heavy wide receiver valuations. This year it's pretty interesting on ECR. It's almost split RB to wide receiver. And maybe I'm like, if I were looking at previous years, it would be a little bit weighted later. But through the top 20, there are nine running backs through the top 20. The only thing breaking it from being a complete split is Brock Bowers. So you have nine running backs, you've got 11 wide receivers, and one tight end. Do you think the idea of Drake London at 11 is okay if you put prioritization more in wide receivers than running backs, which seems to be happening maybe a little bit? There's like a slight little resurgence of running back value popping back up,

or do you think that we should be valuing running backs a little bit higher, which pushes a guy like Drake London back a little bit? No, I think the reason for that phenomenon is that we, We had this unusual circumstance last year of running back staying extraordinarily healthy and having great injury luck. So all these guys who were drafted as running back two's really like popped and gave us almost like running back one production. It was a really good year for like top 25 running backs. And I think that's reflected this year. And last year there were wide receivers getting hurt at a really crazy clip. So that's kind of why it's happening.

I think London is absolutely worthy of being drafted close to the turn. I'm not quite as high as Erickson, but I'm higher on him than ECR. So kind of splitting the difference, I think I've got him 15th overall. And yeah, I'm a Kurt Cousins hater, and I love Michael Pennex. So I absolutely think this sets up really well for Drake London. Well, unfortunately, that awesome resurgence of running back injuries did not float over to the one guy that we're going to talk about in Christian McCaffrey. He would be the one that really got smacked with it, but it is an all-time value. And you have all-time running back value popping up here. He is ECR-16. So that is a second-round

pick if you want to invest. But Pat, you don't seem too excited about investing. You are a bit lower on Christian McCaffrey than the consensus. Is it all related to you? Do you not think he will stay healthy and he's not going to be on the field or is there something more? No, it's pretty much that Welsh. And yeah, I didn't even count Christian McCaffrey as part of that trend of good health for running backs because we didn't even have Christian McCaffrey at the beginning of the season. So many drafters got burned so badly. And I think the 49ers kind of showed us last year that they can't be trusted to be forthright about McCaffrey's health or lack thereof. So McCaffrey's about to turn 29. He's missed six or more games in five of the last seven years. He's missed nine or

more games in four of the last seven years. I think McCaffrey can be a worthwhile risk if you are in a league full of sharks because you might need to take some risk to have a chance to, you know, topple the sharks. But if you are one of the sharks, McCaffrey is not a risk worth taking because when you're a shark, your emphasis in the first two rounds should be on avoiding the bear traps. And with his injury history, McCaffrey is definitely a potential. air trap. Erickson, call me a guppy because I see Christian McCaffrey in the second round and I am

swimming over there, but I get it. He's becoming a little bit of the Mike Trout of football right now with injuries. But what say you, Erickson, where are you out on Christian McCaffrey? Break my hopes and throw me in the pond when you tell me he's going to be outside your top 25 or something. No, he is not outside my top 25. He is someone, we talked about McCaffrey on the draft or past show, myself, Joe Pisapea and Dibro, and he was a guy.

I was drafting. I love taking him in the second round because, yes, we faded him last year because he was coming off all the touches. Well, this year he's coming off 60 touches or 65 touches, whatever, the lowest of his NFL career. He's never come off a season with less work and tear on his tires. He's super healthy now. He didn't even play last year. He's great. So I think that from what you get from a per game basis with him, Kyle Shanahan can say whatever, like, the guy can't help himself. He sees CMC on the feels like, need to give this guy 30 touches no matter what. And no, that's not good for CMC's. long-term value in health, but when he's on the field, I mean, he's going to be in weekly

rank. Where are we going to rank in week one? Week one rankings. He's not going to be outside the top 13. I can tell you that much. So when he's, again, it all is a health question. There's a reason why, again, I still haven't ranked below Sequin. Even though I'm lower on Sequin, I wouldn't take him over Saquan Barclay because I'm playing the injury card with Barclay as well, but he's coming off a healthy season. So I will stop the Sequan fade at McAfrey, but right, if Barclay's gone, like McCaffrey's the next running back I'm looking for, and I love getting the discount around too. Could we have a moment from the crow?

This is only old people are going to get it, where we fire it up. If you get C.D. Lamb in the second round, you get Christian McCaffrey. Can we just have an all-time fire-it-up roster? I mean, those were two top three picks last year. Yeah. And you get both in your team. All right. Well, you know, don't come at me when he's injured again.

I get it. I just can't help myself. No kidding. Just alert the European doctors so they can be ready to have McCaffrey in tip-top shape for the 2025 season. Yeah, who knows what they did over in Germany. He might have new calves and stuff like that. Everything might be new.

Germany, they make a great car and probably make great cabs for football players or whatever he had done. Let's, Eric, let's go to another running back. We talked a lot about him last year on the shows that we were doing. Chase Brown. Chase Brown comes in with an ECR of 28. He's actually the top of tier four. So, so far as you've seen, it took 27 players to have three tiers of value on ECR. Again, Fantasyprose.com slash rankings, if you want to see what those look like.

Those are, you know, just kind of globs of like these guys are in. general space is a value whether you want to maybe move to different positional stuff. But Chase Brown starts off the next tier at Tier 4 at 28. But you have him higher. You actually have him as a second round pick. So let's talk about how many picks higher as far as ECR rank goes and why you've got him so high. So I haven't met number 23. And it's because it's Chase Brown says in it's full go.

I'm not concerned about, you know, the current state of this backfield where you have Samajai P. Ryan, you have Zach Moss coming off a season ending neck injury. and they drafted Taj Brooks in round six, and he's really good in pass protection. Okay, great. Chase Brown, when he was at the Belkow for the Bengals last year, RB5 and points per game, RB1, an expected points per game.

Basically, no running back had better usage or better deployment to score fantasy points than Chase Brown did. So can I guarantee he's going to have the same role? No. But I can tell you that within his range of outcomes, he has a ceiling that he outscores every other running back. And to get that guy in the start a round three, three, end of round two. I want him all day, every day. Again, I see Chase Brown as, you know,

what we've seen for years past with Kyrin. We're thinking, oh, man, someone's going to get more involved. He's going to break down. We've seen Chase Brown at Illinois be a workhorse. Last year, be a workhorse. What are we going to see in 2025? Chase Brown, be a workhorse in arguably one of the best offices in the NFL. So I am all go on Chase Brown, and I'm not really concerned about the rest of these depth pieces in the backfield. So I want a lot of them on my teams. Pat, let's say you go, tight-end wide receiver. Let's say you get Bowers and you get a wide receiver

and you tell yourself you want a running back in the third round. Kyron Williams or Chase Brown? Chase Brown. Without hesitation. Yeah. I mean, there's never going to be any pushback from me on Chase Brown Love. You know, I do think it's possible. They dial back the workload a bit this year now that they've got other options,

Taj Brooks and I know, maybe we see Zach Moss a little bit. But, yeah, I mean, Chase Brown just showed last year he's really good and he's playing in one of the best offenses in the league. One of the most polarizing players, not named Christian McCaffrey, I'd probably say of this list that we're talking about. This would be the second most polarizing player is Tyree Kill. And I think he is going to vary across the board of some people might even make excuses to get him back into the first round for the big playability. He comes in at ECR 30 here. But Tyree Kill is pushed much further down for you, Mr. Pat Fitzmorest. Is this built around the offense?

Is this built around Waddle? Is this built around, you know, his deterioration as a player? Or D, is it all the above? So talk to us about how far down Tyreek Hill is on your ranks compared to ECR. Kind of all the above, Welsh. I just, I want no part of 31-year-old Tyreek Hill coming off a bad year, playing with a Dolphins team that seems like it could be on the way down. I mean, sure, it's possible Tyreek's disappointing 20-24 season.

was just a mirage and he goes right back to being the 1,700-yard guy he was in 2022 and 2023. But it's also possible that 2024 was just the beginning of the end. And I don't really want to pay a mid-third-round price to find out, nor do I really want my third-rounder's productivity to be tied to the health of Tuotunga Vailoa. The relationship between Tyreek and the Dolphins doesn't seem great these days. I'm just not really interested in drafting Tyreek unless I get a major discount, and it looks like I'm not going to get a major discount based on ECR. Erickson, you and I have an interesting relationship with the dolphins last year. People watched on betting pros and our Tyree Kill. More Jalen Waddle than anything.

Is it Jalen Waddle-Sizan? And are we letting go of Tyree Kill or are you still back in? I am passing on Tyree Kill. It was another player we talked about in the Draft or Pass show, and Tyree Kill was very low on my priority list. Again, if it's laid out some of the concerns, as did you, an older player coming off a very bad season. And even when Tua was healthy last year, he still underperformed bursts his expectation. Then you have the outburst at the end of the year where he wants to move from the team. He has this wrist injury thing that he's dealing with. How many more red flags we need to see here with Tari Kelt where it's like,

maybe we should take her foot off the gas pedal just a little bit. But to Fitzh's point, he's also still Tiree Kill. Like he's someone that you, he's always going in the first round. He's one of the first receivers drafted. And so when people see the name, I think, oh, I want to click on Terry Kill by the dip. But, I mean, if the dip is now he's shipped off to another team and we don't know what his usage is going to be potentially, I don't feel like dabbling. And to be honest, too, I do like Jalen Waddley as kind of like a discount buy for now it seems

like the third year in a row. But I also am getting really bad vibes from this Dolphins. Is anyone who we team with this team like totally tanks and like Daniel gets canned and it's just a whole rebald like to, they move on from him? So this Dolphins team overall is starting to concern me as I just kind of look at them from a whole listic standpoint. And I mean, is Tyreek Hill on the team in week 18 in 2025? What do you guys think? Do you think he's on the team still?

I'm going to say no. I mean, is he on the team week one? Yeah, there's just too many red flags with Tyreek to take him ECR 30 for me. Okay. There you go. I actually think he might even be one of those guys unless there's a collective narrative across the industry. He could even move up a little bit. if there's some positive vibe, positive talks and preseason and hey, it looks fresh-legged,

then all of a sudden he goes up because of that talent, but I think you're probably safer more than anything fading a bit. You guys can experiment with exactly where Tyreek Hill can go and all the players we've talked about with our draft simulator. You can finish a full mock draft against realistic opponents in just minutes. There's no waiting for picks. You can customize settings to match your exact league format. You can test different strategies.

You can do that tight in early, heavy wide receiver or heavy running back, and then you can see how your team's grayed out instantly. And best of all, you can try it for free at fantasypros.com slash mock. Fantasypros.com slash mock. Do it today. Get ready and get rolling with the Fantasy Pros draft simulator. Next 15 is up. Let's go to the big board.

We are 31 through 45. Got another quarterback kicking us off here at 31. Jaden Daniels followed by Mike Evans, Terry McLaren, Brees Hall, James Cook, Garrett Wilson, Devante Adams, now with the Rams, Jalen Hertz, DJ Moore, George Kittle, Joe Mixin, Kenneth Walker, Rishi Rice. That ends out Tier 4. Remember, Tier 4 started at 28. So that's a big grouping. And then the last two do start off Tier 5, Zay Flowers, and Marvin Harrison, Jr. So that is our 31 through 45. Erickson, let's go to you and let's talk about Garrett Wilson. We've had a lot of conversations built around the running backs and how there could be some committee.

but Garrett Wilson looking a little bit better, ECR 36 on this list, so that mid-tier 4, but you've got him quite a bit higher, so let's talk about that rank boost. I have Garrett Wilson at number 25 overall because I'm buying this Justin Fields connection, potentially with Garrett Wilson.

Again, former teammates at Ohio State, so we saw Fields unlock a ceiling with DJ Moore in their season together in 2023 with the Chicago Bears. So yes, I think that Justin Fields, although he's not perfect as a pass, He's shown, hey, if I'm hyper-targeting one guy on the offense and fluttering him with targets, then that guy can be a top six fantasy finisher. And Garrett Wilson, I know last year was really frustrating, but it was a career year for him.

He was still a fantasy wide receiver won last year, despite sharing the well of Aaron Rogers with Devante Adams for the second half of the season, which really hurt his numbers. But when you look at just targets, right? Garrett Wilson, since entering the NFL, the only guys that have more targets than him are, Devante Adams, his former teammate who had to split again targets with the second half of last year, and C.D. Lamb. That's it. And you look at this Jets' death chart behind Garrett Wilson. Josh Reynolds? Is this guy who is Mason, we're getting excited about Mason Taylor, who is the most Dolton Schultz tight end ever that just is a system-produced tight end. And we're excited about him getting targets

in this offense. It's going to be the Garrett-Wilson show. I get, even if they're run heavy, I think Wilson's going to see, flirt with a potential 30% target share. And I'm willing to to buy into that upside of a player that could see a bullet of targets from Justin Fields, who, again, has unlocked a player before. So I think he's too low because I think I love the talent. And I think that maybe this is, again, another season of Garrett Wilson, maybe with the best quarterback play of his career. Maybe that's a little bit of a stretch.

But I do think there's some upside here. Pat, I know these are two different positions, but who will you have more shares of? Garrett Wilson or Breece Hall? And I ask that because Breeze Hall on ECR is higher than Garrett Wilson. So take out the positional thing there. Who do you think you have more shares of? Garrett Wilson, no question.

Aaron Glenn has basically said he doesn't want to have a lead back. He wants a committee, and people seem to be ignoring that with the ranking of Breece Hall. And, you know, like, I'm not quite as high on Garrett Wilson as Erickson is, but I'm ahead of ECR on him for sure. And, like, I might even be able to move Garrett Wilson a little higher than I have him right now. I've got him at 30, 34. And, you know, like I have him behind T. Higgins and Terry McLaren. And I do think there's a case that Wilson should be ahead of those guys. But T. Higgins is Joe Burrow as his QB.

I trust Joe Burrow. Terry McLaren is Jaden Daniels. I trust Jaden Daniels. Garrett Wilson is Justin Fields. I'm cautiously optimistic about Fields, but I don't have the same level of trust in him that I do with Burrow and Jane Daniels. One wide receiver, you have got higher than Gary Wilson. and you've got quite a bit higher than consensus is Mike Evans. Mike Evans comes in at ECR 32, Fitch you've got him at 26.

He's aging like a fine wine, I suppose. So talk to us about Mike Evans. Yeah, and that's it. Well, he is getting a little older. He turns 32 in August. Maybe the Tampa Bay offense isn't as sharp now that Liam Cohen is left for Jacksonville. I do still think Evans is a pretty low-risk, high-yield investment. Just had his 11th straight,000-yard.

season, dramatic fashion at the end, getting it on one of the last plays of the game. Even though he missed three games with a hamstring injury, which is really one of the only injuries this dude has ever had, he's just been indestructible for the most part. 11 touchdowns in 14 games last year, and Evans has had double-digit TDs in four of the last five years. He averaged 2.52 yards per route run last season. That was actually a career best. So I'm not worried about age.

I'm not worried about target competition. I'm not worried about the absence of Liam Cohen. I just want to keep betting on a player who pays off every freaking year. So I'm going to keep drafting Mike Evans. Wasn't it Erickson, remember we were talking about it when it happened? Didn't he like throw a huge pout when he didn't get it? And then he got it and you just like leave the field. This is an all timer for Mike Evans.

Let's do this. Rank these guys, Erickson. Garrett Wilson, Mike Evans and Devante Adams. Hmm. Interesting names there. Okay, so I have it. Garrett Wilson, Devante Adams, Mike Evans, but they are all in the same. And when I look at my tiers, they're all in the same tier three for me among receivers. And I said Adams is interesting because Adams is 37 on ECR. So he's the lowest of these wide receivers from an ECR perspective. Mike Evans being the highest of them and you've got Evans at the bottom of that list. Obviously you're Garrett Wilson guy. So any just quick takes on Mike Evans? No, I mean, I,

I don't hate Mike Evans. Again, I just have him ranked there just because maybe I like the upside case. I guess I'm willing to sacrifice the safety of Evans. Again, locked and loaded 1,000 yards receiver every single year coming off such a career year in terms of efficiency. But I do want to try to chase a little bit of that ceiling with Garrett Wilson. And again, is Mike Evans going to stay healthy all year. Decent amount of target competition in Tampa Bay with Godwin. The two young receivers from McMillan and Ekbuka coming in as a first round pick.

And Evans, too, to his style. He does have a little boomer bust to his game where he disappears for some time, but then he blows up on a 30-point game, which, especially in redraft, I was thinking about it. He's one of those guys where your opponent has him, and you're like, beat of sweat goes down in your forehead. You're like, oh, no, now I'm like it. Does he have a thousand yards yet? Am I safe?

So I do like that, but from a consistency standpoint, I think Garrett Wilson, I mean, I think he could see double-digit targets every single week with the jet. So I just lean towards the ceiling a little bit more with him. All right, it's not all rosy. So we'll see, are these two fine gentlemen wrong? Because we are going to focus on two wide receivers that you guys are lower than ECR on. And Pat, let's jump over.

Yeah, we'll just jump over to yours here real quick because the name just jumps out to me, even though I think we started with you on the last one as well, is Rishie Rice. Rishie Rice comes in at 43, wide receiver 20 on this list. And this is another one of those where, like, you've got him quite a bit lower. So talk to us.

He is outside of the 50s. So, I mean, this is like a round and a half, I guess difference if you want to use it like that on the overall. So Rishi Rice, why are we out? Almost, yeah, I've got him at 58 overall. So right now with Rishi Rice at NECR of 43 and Xavier Worthy at 54, at least one of those guys has to be a colossal disappointment at their current cost, right? I mean, maybe not if Patrick Mahomes goes back to being a 5,000-yard 40 touchdown quarterback

like he was in 2022. but Mahomes had been closer to 4,000 yards the last two years, didn't even reach 4,000 last year. 27 TD passes in 2023, 26 last year. So I would feel better about Rishi Rice as a fourth rounder if Xavier Worthy didn't exist or if Travis Kelsey had retired. But I don't know, when Rishie Rice really caught fire in his rookie season late, late November, December, and in the big playoff game against Miami, he was getting nine or 10 targets pretty much every game.

It's just hard to see Rishi Rice consistently getting nine to 10 targets a game now that Xavier Worthy got really hot down the stretch and with Travis Kelsey still around. It's kind of interesting, though, because what did we call it all year? We called it the Rishi Rice role. You know, that was the Rishi Rice role where it was like main first target. And if I would presume he might kind of jump back into that role. But to your point, like Xavier Worthy is electric, though they might try to find some other outlets for him.

Do you think Pat's rank is too low, Erickson, on Rishi Rice? Or do you think it's probably just right? No, I think that his rank is pretty spot on. I think that Rashi Rice is ranked very aggressively when you just kind of take a step back. There's a lot of ways where this goes wrong. The guy's coming off a major knee injury. So during the ramp up to the season, is he in practicing in the Rashi Rice role if he's limited? Does that make a lot of sense for the chiefs to build their offense around a guy who's coming off a major knee injury?

Like that to me seems like a little bit of a stretch when Xavier Worthy filled in so great. So is it worthy in the Rashi race role to start the year? And then they put Rice back into it to the second half of the year. But then Worthy takes on a field stretcher role. It's like at this point, especially how closely ranked those two guys are, I mean, you can take the guy that was a first round pick, the guy that flashed most recently and the guy that's not coming off major injury. And then the other guy, he's also not facing potential suspension, you know, risk or whatever. So although the suspension thing shouldn't affect Rashi Rice this year, it's still just like another, layer of is this guy like dialed in like or is he a bonehead like I don't really know just so many ways

the rice thing doesn't work out versus the cost you have to pay for him at this ECR it seems like it's kind of ignoring those I want to get the discount because of all the red flags that I just miss mentioned it's like oh yeah round four it's like wait that doesn't make it that doesn't add up to me so yeah I agree kind of being lower on Rashi rice there's a lot of like buzz about Romadunze that everyone we want to get back in this is going to be Roma Dunesay's year Erickson You're lower on DJ Moore, though. He comes in at ECR 39. Not that I don't say you're out.

Like, I would say that Fitz's Rishie Rice rank is a little bit more exemplifying, like, not like out, but just like further back. You're probably not going to have shares. Yours isn't quite that on DJ Moore, but it's still significant enough to talk about where you at? Do you think it is Romadunzee Sisson? And that's why DJ Moore's down. I guess for me, it's because the bears are now under Ben Johnson, I don't know exactly. oh, just plug and play, copy and paste DJ more wide receiver one from the past year, or the past years that have been, he's been in Chicago because it's a new offense, right?

We don't know who's going to play in the slot. Like, that's going to change. We talked about at the beginning of the show, what's going to move ADPs? Whoever Ben Johnson decides, you are my slot receiver is going to dramatically shift ADPs of these bears wide receivers. So I think it's somewhat telling that he gets hired as the head coach. First thing he does is draft two pass catchers in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. I think it's a little telling about the guys he already has in the building.

but to the point of you saying that I'm not super, super low on DG Moore is because he's still a consistent producer, right? I find it hard to believe unless he gets injured or just totally falls out of favor with this new coaching staff that at the end of the day, he's probably going to end up being a wide receiver two. Now, he's kind of being drafted into that range. So I think for me, it's, I don't see the wide receiver six ceiling with him. Like we saw his first year with Justin Fields. I don't think that's going to happen with all those past catchers in Chicago with potentially Ben Johnson looking at some. some of those other guys. If anything, it's an indication and suggestion for those looking at my rankings that I think I'd rather just take a different Bears receiver at a cheaper price,

because I'm not so confident, or at least with the market, that DJ Moore's, oh, he's locked and loaded to be the number one guy. I would assume that that's probably the best bet to make, but not at this particular ECR. So again, I don't think he's going to be a bust by any means, but maybe underwhelm a little bit versus his ECR. That's kind of my feeling. What do you think about DJ Moore? Are you in the same general space, or are you around DCR and DJ Moore. No, I'm right where Erickson is 46th overall. Same ranking. And like, I love DJ Moore way too much to be completely out on him. It's more of a gentle fade for me. And it's less about the too many mouths to feed thing than it is about DJ Moore and Caleb Williams never really

clicking last year. And DJ Moore's demeanor just being sort of strangely sour for a lot of the season. Just something about the vibe there that I don't love. And yeah, I'll have to get him in at least one draft, but I'm probably not going to have a lot of DJ more in 2025. All right. Let's move to our next grouping here. We've got 46 through 60. We're going to start off with Alvin Camara coming in at 46 on the Fantasy Pro's ECR. Chuba Hubbard, Joe Burrow, Cortland Sutton, James Connor, Devontas Smith, O'Marion Hampton,

at 52, Sam Laporta, Xavier Worthy, who we've been talking about at 54, David Montgomery, D.K. Metcalfe, Jameson, Chris Alave, Chris Godwin, and Aaron Jones. that ends out your 60 interesting group in there, getting a little bit more on the rookie running back side, get him, Marion Hampton jumping up. But Pat, let's start with Chuba Hubbard. Chuba comes in at 47. We know there's no Brooks.

We know there's just really nothing out there. They want to press him even more. He's RB 18. You've got him a little bit higher. His ECR is 47. You have got him in the 30 range. Is Chuba Hubbard going to be a massive target for you, knowing that, you know,

there's quite a decent separation between market value and your own analysis on him? I think so, Welsh, because I would be perfectly comfortable taking him early in the fourth, and he's going more towards the late fourth. He was just really good last year. 4.8 yards per carry, 11th in miss tackles, forced, 8th in yards after contact per attempt among running backs with at least 100 carries. And he was RB12 last year in fantasy points per game, half point PPR.

So the Panthers just gave Hubbard a four-year, $33 million deal, even if you just look at the guaranteed money, about 16.5 million. I mean, still a pretty lucrative deal for an NFL running back. Contrast that with the one-year $2.75 million contract, the Panthers just gave Rico Dowdell. So I'm not worried about Dowdell supplanting Chuba Hubbard. I'm not too worried about fourth round draft pick Trevor E.T.N. Who never had a thousand-yard season in college supplanting Chuba. I'm cautiously optimistic about the direction of the Panthers' offense under Dave Canales.

and I really like the Carolina offensive line. So, yeah, I'm in on Chuba Hubbard this year. Erickson, assuming that you're pretty on this, you're like in a relative range where you like the rank, maybe you're at ACR a little bit above, are you comfortable with Chuba Hubbard as your RV1 on your team? If he's coming at like a fourth-ish round cost, let's say, or even, I guess, top five.

But if we say four, presumably you've probably got three wide receivers already. or you've got a tight end and three and two wide receivers. Are you comfortable with him being your RB1 on a team like that? Or do you think it's more of a necessity that he needs to be your RB2? So you've gone two wide outs and two running backs. Yeah, I think I would probably prefer him as my RB2. I guess for me it's, and I'm like slightly lower than consensus. So I have him at 51 and he's 47.

For me, I do prefer a lot of the receivers going in that range. So traditionally I like to follow a hero RB approach. So hopefully I already have my bell cow running back by the time Chuba Hubbard is even like available to pick in rounds for around five. And I really gravitate more towards the wide receivers in this range or potentially an elite tight end here because I probably have more concerns about RICO Dada. Because I think Rico Dada'll, again, Chuba Huber was really good last year. So was Rico Dattle. Like that guy rushed for over a thousand yards and basically didn't play for a significant part of the first half of the season for the Cowboys until they're like, oh yeah, this guy's really good. Like let's use him on offense.

And eventually they put him in the spearheading the backfield. So I think that he is going to get some decent run here. So that's the difference between how I feel about Chuba Hubbard versus, you know, like a Chase Brown where I really don't think Chase Brown has big threats. Where I do, I just disagree with fits where I do think Dowd might present a bigger threat as the Panthers, like, they want to run the ball. Like, I think they want to use both guys and make sure that Chuba Hubbard can stay functioning throughout the entire season.

So, again, I have no qualms about where he's ranked. versus the other running backs, but I guess I just gravitate towards the receivers a little bit more in his range. That would feel like he could be annoying. He can be super annoying. He's going to mess with stuff here. We did just talk about this guy decent amount, so Erickson, and you can kind of blow through it a little bit or give more of analysis, since we did talk more on the Rishi Rice range. But one of the guys you're probably drafting instead of Chuba Hubbard is Xavier Worthy.

You mentioned you like some wide receivers in this range. And the reason I think it is important to talk about him a little bit more is you have him more than a full round of higher than what his ECR comes in at, at 54. You've got him at 41. So, I mean, that's significant enough. That would have been, I believe, in the last, I know, I guess it would have been, yeah, it would have been in like the last discussion we were having. So talk to me about Xavier Worthy and how much you need to have your shares of him.

I just really like Xavier Worthy. I liked him a lot coming out of Texas, a super young prospect with, I think, a really high ceiling. And I thought that, man, could this be Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes, like, their new. like Deshawn Jackson type player. And that's not really what we saw during his rookie year, especially because we talked about it. He took over the Rashi Rice role. But if anything, he showed that he can be versatile and used in a lot of different ways.

So I feel good about him just long term because let's say he doesn't get the Rashi Rice role. Okay. Well, he can still be used as a vertical threat. They still like to use him on jet sweeps. We still don't really know what this backfield's going to look like. Is it going to be Pacheco? Is he going to be healthier? Are they going to use Breschard Smith?

What about Cream Hunt? Russia for three yards of carry in a cloud of dust. So there's a lot of question marks about this offense, but you know who there's not really big question mark about is Xavier Worthy. Like, that's the guy who blew up in the second half of the year. He four catches are more in 10 straight games, six plus in seven straight games. He had over 40 receiving yards in all those contests, 12 total touchdowns, nine receiving, three rushing from week 11 onward, two yards per route run, 14.6 fantasy points per game.

And that's better. That 14.6 mark is better than Rishi Rice's production from first, the second half of his rookie year. into the start of the 2024 season where he was really effective for the first three weeks before his knee injury. So I just think that Worthy is kind of just being undervalued a little bit. I get that he's a smaller wide receiver. It doesn't really profile as an alpha, but he's got Mahomes trust. He's got Andy Reid's trust. And I think that bodes well for him in his future production. So look, again, between Worthy and Rice, I'm on the worthy side here. And I know that ECR doesn't necessarily agree with that, but that's just kind of how I see the Chiefs Receiver Room.

I want to get your rank on worthy, Pat, because we hadn't talked about that yet, but let me ask you this question. And it may be the other side of how I'm pushing it. Erickson says 41 overall unworthy. If we compare that to ECR, this wide receiver is lower, 45 Marvin Harrison Jr. Who would you rather, worthy or Marvin Harrison, Jr. And what's your rank on worthy? Marvin Harrison Jr. And I have worthy, so like full fade on rice for me. I've gotten him at 58 overall, which is like more than around past ECR. Worthy, I have. at 55. So I'm like one higher than ECR. You know, like I would rather have worthy than Rishi Rice, but it's just, I don't know. I mean, they drafted Jalen Royals who a lot of people like. They still have Hollywood Brown kicking around. They have Travis Kelsey. Like, it's just messy.

And remember early last season when Worthy made a couple of big plays in the opener against the Ravens on the, you know, season debut Thursday night opener? And we thought like, okay, this is it wheels up for Xavier Worthy. Then for like the first half of the season, it's like, okay, where is this guy? And then he finally kicked it in a high gear at the end of the season. I guess it's easy to think that he's going to continue to produce like he did in the back half of the season. But I don't know. I just, I worry that it's going to be pretty messy in Kansas City with some of the past catchers this year. Slight follow up. Erickson. Harrison, or Worthy? I need to consult the ranks because I don't want to be lying.

What did your gut tell you before you looked at the rank? What did your gut say? It's probably going to be, it's probably worthy. But it's not, actually. It is Marvin Harrison, Jr. They're back to back, though. They're handholding 18 to 19. Okay, that's what I wanted to see. Pat, let's go to this running back one. I think this is interesting because, you know, there's a lot of talk about Jordan Mason and Minnesota, but Aaron Jones comes in at ECR 30 and you've got him higher.

You've got him at 50. So is it a touchdown equity thing that keeps him there? Is it all about nothing with Jordan Mason coming in? Talk to us about Aaron Jones and your higher rank of him in ECR. I put my money where my mouth is Welsh. I just drafted Aaron Jones in a slow draft for my first redraft league of the year. Nice. Like, I just think he's a boring but very good value at his end of the fifth round ECR.

Yes, Jones is 30 now, so there's some risk. But he just cranked out another 1,100-yard rushing season. And he's played all 17 games in two of the last three years. So Jones adds some value as a pass catcher. He's had 50-plus receptions in three of the last four years. And it might have been 4-4 if he had missing. games in 2023. The Vikings upgraded their offensive line in the offseason, and Kevin O'Connell is a great

play caller. So I think there's a lot to like here. But, you know, Jones is older and maybe people are a little bored with him. So I think he's going to be a value in drafts. Erickson, are you an agreement here? Because I think you're a Jordan Mason guy, if I remember correctly. And he's pretty interesting as far as someone you're going to pick up this year. Is it enough that you're going to push Aaron Jones up at ECR?

Where do you stand on this? So I have him right at ECR. are at 60 overall, so I have no problem with where he's being ranked. I'm definitely open to drafting Aaron Jones. It's just, for me, it's like, would you rather take Aaron Jones at 60 or Jordan Mason at 120? And I'm like, I rather just take Jordan Mason at 120 because I like both guys in terms of the scenarios, but I just like the value more with Jordan Mason because I think that he could

be the hammer at the goal line. And if that puts him over the top, scoring touchdowns, if his Viking offense is really effective with the revamped offensive line, then I think Jordan Mason could really benefit. And Aaron Jones is just so bad in the red zone last year. Oh, my God. I'm still losing money on all this betting pro show, betting on Aaron Jones, the score touchdown. You're like, you're still losing.

Go back. It's a credit. I do. I'm not a big handcuff guy, but I do think Jordan Mason is like the most essential handcuff of the 2025 season. It's probably a good take. Final one in this range. This is a wide receiver, Erickson, that you seem pretty out on,

especially compared to ECR. This might be the biggest differential, at least that we've talked about yet. There's over 20 spots lower. You have Devante Smith versus ECR. He's at 52. You've got him in the mid-70s. So why do you hate DeVante Smith? I don't hate DeVante Smith, to be clear.

It's just a matter of how he scores his fantasy points. And he only scores fantasy points when someone else is injured. This happens every single year and every single year. I'm pointing out like, guys, he doesn't score fantasy points unless someone gets hurt. And then, of course, somebody always ends up getting hurt. To my point, eight games with A. Brown and Dallas Goddard, including the postseason last year, because again, as we know, those guys both got injured last year at different points.

He averaged 8.3 points per game. That was wide receiver 63. Okay, but the other half of the season, right? The nine games that somebody was not in the lineup, 14.7 points per game. Wide receiver 8. So clearly there is a reason why he is ranked where he is. He's kind of middling this territory. But I just don't think Devante Smith has that ceiling unless someone gets hurt, which has

happened obviously in the past, but it's not something that I like going into my draft knowing, okay, I'm draft Devonda Smith, and then this guy's getting hurt, and then I'm going to feel good about playing him. I would rather just draft someone that doesn't necessarily need that injury, you know, out to access their potential ceiling. So for me, it's like, I don't think Devontes-spith is going to, like, bury me if I don't take him. So that's why I haven't ranked a little bit lower just because I know that when you can actually play him, it's dependent on his teammates being available and not necessarily him. And also, too, like the constraints of the Eagles offense, don't get me wrong, because I think he's a really good, like,

real life player. And if he was in another offense, like he could thrive. But the Eagles, I just, I just don't like his upside unless, again, like I pointed out, someone's got to get hurt. It's actually 51. Well, I was on our list, too. I was saying 52. That was it moved in the day. Fitsy, Jameson Williams or Devante Smith. Williams comes in at 57. ECR has Smith higher, but what say you? I am looking at this now Welsh. I think I have Devante Smith higher. And yes, that is, in fact, the case by a pretty good amount actually like more than a round for me um i just like i think devante smith i can't argue with ericsson's categorization of it where he has done his best work when someone else has been hurt but he is one of the best route runners in the game he's averaged between

11.7 and 12.7 half point ppr fantasy points per game in each of the last three years and he had a pretty good season on a per game basis last year with the eagles having this ridiculous run-heavy offense, the run-heavy offense in the league. I don't think they can get any more run-heavy than they were last year. If they get more pass-heavy, that works to DeVante Smith's benefit. So I just, I think he's a really

good player and I want to bet on talent. Eagles, hold my beer. It's going to be just nothing but running. Smith is going to turn into a running back. That's where it's going to go. All right, we got a final one here. Let's look at the final board. This is 61 through 75. It kicks off with Baker Mayfield coming in, by the way, QB6

on ECR. Tony Pollard, Jordan Madison, Travis Hunter, wider receiver 31, Jalen waddled, T.J. Hawkinson, Trayvion Henderson at RV 24, Patrick Mahomes, R.J. Harvey, Gwinchenchenz. We got Tett McMillan, Jimillan, Jerry Judy, Isaiah Pacheco, DeAndre Swift, and George Pickin. Since we are at the end of the show, there's some incredibly fun names out of this list. I'm going to present you guys with your choice, or I'm going to let you guys present your choice is a better way to say it. Pick anybody out of this list. I won't even set up off a list. the sheet. And Pat, let's start with you. Who do you want to pick out of this range that you were

either like way higher on or way lower on versus ECR? T.J. Hawkinson, what are we doing with Hawkinson as a sixth rounder in ECR? Like, the Vikings have one of the two or three best wide receiver combos in the league with Justin Jefferson and the vastly underrated Jordan Addison. You know, I'm not worried about J.J. McCarthy, but the fact is he's never taken an NFL snap in a regular season game yet. Like, Hawkinson's a good player, but he had major knee, surgery two years ago and he's never had more than six touchdowns in any NFL season. I just cannot get on board with a sixth round ECR for him. I'd rather just wait like several rounds later and get the same level of production,

if not better from Zach Ertz. Overall rankings really start to open up. I think you can do a whole episode on like how you approach and really like care about overall rankings, whether I've done this conversation in baseball ranking talks. Football kind of has the same thing. there's a point where you just kind of stop caring about what an overall is in positional ranks become more important. So we can take a little less time because this opens up so much.

But there are some fascinating names on this list, Erickson, with so many rookies. There's some wide receivers that pop. There's a lot of different directions that you can go. But higher or lower, what's one player you want to highlight out of the 60 to 75 overall rank? So I'm sticking with the Vikings here. And so I'm going to go with the other side, Jordan Addison. So I should probably also move Tija Hawkinson down, but I just don't want to be overly confident that J.J. McCarthy is going to come in and just do exactly what Sam Darnold did. Like, I get that there is an upside case with him that he can do that, but I don't want it to be just what I'm drafting a player to do.

I need there to be some leeway in case he doesn't fire away. What if, again, we just talk about the running backs. What if they like to run the ball a little bit more as they get their young quarterback accumulated, getting snaps under center, getting him back in the rhythm of playing NFL football because he's been. been out the entire year. So that's my concern with any Vikings, even Justin Jefferson to an extent, where it's like, it's a brand new quarterback. Like, we're just going to do it all again? Like, it's hard for these guys to just every single year overcome potential quarterback issues. So for me, Jordan Addison, especially last year, again, you saw sub 20% target share when Hawkinson came back, weeks one through eight. He had a 17% target share, averaging under nine fantasy points per game.

He scored eight touchdowns from week nine onward. So he had a lot of touchdown production. what if they're running the ball more on the red zone? What if JJ McCarthy doesn't throw as many touches as Sam Donald did it a year ago? And then to add another point with Addison, he also might get suspended this year. Like, don't forget about that. Like, he has an issue off the field where it didn't get happened. It didn't happen last year,

but he could face a one to three games suspension because of the DUI thing that ended up happening to him last off season. So these are things I'm trying to point out and remember. It's like, yes, Jefferson, okay. But the other two guys, I just would rather have someone else take them. So I'm going to have Hawkinson down and I'm probably out on Jordan Addison too. What do the overall ranks have right and what do they have wrong?

You can drop it in the comments below if you were on the YouTube. Of course, you can check us out. If you're listening on the podcast side, YouTube.com slash fantasy pros. We want to hear from you. What did these guys get? Especially what do these guys get right? Don't be hating, but you probably going to anyways. But what do we get right?

What did we get wrong? It's never too early for ranks. That's why you can go to fantasypros.com slash rankings. Check all the different formats. you can see how it moves. The best ranking, the worst ranking, the average. There's so much really cool, fun information, and then you can even see where each analyst is.

I think there's already like 50-plus rankers that are on there. So ECR is a really, really good representation of some of the early ranks. Thank you guys so much for hanging out with us. Great discussion on the overall ranks. That is Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmore. I'm Chris Welsh, and we will talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros. Bye, friends. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pro's Fantasy Football Podcast.

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