The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - DON'T BE FILLED WITH REGRET | 12 Most Overvalued Players in 2025 (Ep. 1581)

Episode Date: June 2, 2025

Join Ryan Wormeli, Andrew Erickson, and Tom Strachan as they highlight 12 players who will be overvalued heading into 2025 fantasy football drafts! Timestamps: (May be off due to ads) Intro - 0:00:00 Amon-Ra St. Brown - 0:02:30 Jonathan Taylor - 0:07:52 Signed Nico Collins Jersey Giveaway - 0:13:03 Tyreek Hill - 0:13:28 Kyren Williams - 0:18:48 DJ Moore - 0:23:03 James Cook - 0:28:22 DeVonta Smith - 0:33:45 DraftKings Sportsbook - 0:37:22 Deebo Samuel - 0:38:52 Jordan Addison - 0:43:54 Chris Olave - 0:50:10 Cheat Sheet Creator - 0:53:13 Tyrone Tracy - 0:53:57 Jaydon Blue - 0:56:03 Outro - 0:59:37 Helpful Links: DraftKings Pick6 – Download the DraftKings Pick6 app NOW on Google Play or the App Store and use code FANTASYPROS. This offer is for new customers to play $5, get $50 in Pick6 credits. Only on DraftKings Pick6. The crown is yours.  Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org in Connecticut. Must be eighteen plus, age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction. Pick6 not available everywhere, including New York and Ontario. Void where prohibited. One per new customer. Bonus awarded as non-withdrawable Pick6 Credits that expire in thirty days. Limited time offer. See terms at https://pick6.draftkings.com/promos. Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator - Our Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator lets you complete a mock in minutes with no waiting between picks! Customize your league settings to match your league’s exact format. Premium subscribers can test trade scenarios by mocking with their traded draft picks. Prepare for rookie drafts AND dynasty startup drafts in one place! Use the Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator to dominate your rookie draft today at fantasypros.com/simulator! Discord - Join our FantasyPros Discord Community! Chat with other fans and get access to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Come get your questions answered and BE ON THE SHOW at fantasypros.com/chat Leave a Review – If you enjoy our show and find our insight to be valuable, we’d love to hear from you! Your reviews fuel our passion and help us tailor content specifically for YOU. Head to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts and leave an honest review. Let’s make this show the ultimate destination for fantasy football enthusiasts like us. Thank you for watching and for showing your support – https://fantasypros.com/review/ BettingPros Podcast – For advice on the best picks and props across both the NFL and college football each and every week, check out the BettingPros Podcast at bettingpros.com/podcast, our BettingPros YouTube channel at youtube.com/bettingpros, or wherever you listen to podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I am Ryan Warmly. Join today by Andrew Erickson and by Tom Stracken. We are recording later than usual, really for all three of us here as we sit here in the middle of, well, not middle of late May. Now at this point, getting one step closer to the fantasy football season. We're talking some overvalued players today. Erickson, how you doing? I'm doing good. I'm excited. We're getting Tom here.

from the future. It is tomorrow where Tom is recording. So that's a lot of fun. So I'm hoping that with Tom's ability to be a time traveler, we can get some great insight on some of these overvalued players because Tom exactly knows how it's going to play out. Tom, we appreciate you going through the difficulty of inventing time travel just to help us out. You guys will not believe the crazy things that are going to happen to you in the five hours that have gone by since it hit midnight in my country till it hits midnight in your country. Fair warning for everybody who's watching on YouTube. Given the time of day that we're recording this,

it's right when the sun sets in front of my window. So there is a chance I get blasted and get some sunburn here, blinded by the light when we're recording later on in this episode. We'll see how quickly we get out of here. Like I said, we're talking about some overvalued players here for 2025. Quick reminder for everybody, all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasyprose.com Slash rankings.

Each of you pick six players here. there's no real designation as far as positions go or anything just kind of we want to get a couple of early round players we want to get some mid round players we have one kind of later round player each obviously it's hard to be overvalued when you're going that late but maybe some sleepers that we're not necessarily buying into ericsson you went really wide receiver heavy i think did you do all receivers or no one running back in the rest receivers yeah i did mostly wide receivers i did do the fantasy pros wide receiver notes so the wide receiver numbers were kind of fresh in my mind and that's kind of where I settled here.

So yeah, it did include at least one running back. Also, to be fair, Tom did beat me to the sheet, and he took all the good running backs. So a lot of the running backs, I actually will agree with when Tom breaks down why they're overvalued. Tom is definitely more running back heavy in his picks, and he did get to the sheet first.

Let's get us started with one of those receivers here, Erickson. And we're going to start off with the guys that are kind of these early round overvalue players. And the way we're defining that is just anybody who's in the top 36 overall of the current half PPR. our rankings, consensus rankings, that is. And again, fantasy pros.com slash rankings, if you want to follow along with those players.

Yeah, so my first guy is Amon Raas, St. Brown, wide receiver for the Detroit Lions. My wide receiver rankings just got posted up on X, and he is my wide receiver 9, and everybody hates me in the comments because I'm baiting the sun god, but that's just how I feel. So there's a couple reasons why I think that he's overvalued

at his current ADP. So he's being drafted eighth overall, so that's where his ECR is. And when you look at some early season projections, and I've used the fantasy pros ones, Mike Clay's projections, which are also very, very good from the industry standard. So his projections have him closer to 16th overall when you're looking at just flex rankings between running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. And I think there's a reason for that. And it's because of the target competition in Detroit, I think, is increasing compared to last year. Last year, we didn't know what James and Williams was going to be. We weren't sure if he was like not a bust, but he showed out and he was really productive when he was.

was healthy, when he wasn't suspended, and over the second half of the season, we saw Amon-Ross St. Brown's target share dip from 27% to 23% over the final seven games, as James and Sam Leporta were more involved in the offense. They were spreading the ball out a lot more than just focusing on the sun god. And there's only one game really where St. Brown just completely dominated the targets over Jameson Williams, which was that 18 target game against Buffalo Bills in week 15. If you're moving that from the equation, their target share is nearly identical in all the other games. You know, one week, it's Jameson the other week. It's now on Monmouth St. Brown. Now, you can't just take away that one game. It happened. So I'm not trying to discredit Amonra

St. Brown. But I'm just pointing out the fact that the targets, I think, are getting much closer in 2025 than they were in 2024, especially when you consider it's a new office accordioner coming in. We're so excited about finding that slot receiver for the Chicago Bears, but we're not thinking about what does that have to affect on the Lions offense in 2025? Is it as centered around the sun god as it's been without Ben Johnson calling the shots as the OC? So those are some of the reasons why I just think that he's a little bit overvalued. Well, he still finishes a wide receiver one most likely without any type of injury. But I think he might actually be more in the lower tier of wide receiver 10 to 12 as opposed to in that top eight overall players at receiver

and running back. Tom, what do you think about this one? For me, I feel like I feel like if I'm making Amin Ra my pick in the first round I don't know that I'm feeling super great about it like just given like Ben Johnson not being there some of the targets of Erickson's laying out if he was like an early second round pick I would still be like pretty thrilled about that I think but I don't think he's going to get there in most

drafts how are you approaching St. Brown do you agree that he's overvalued right now I'm not really there I think that like I'm not against Daman Ra as much as Andrew and yourself maybe I'm more out on Jamo Jameson Williams feels so much more volatile and the price

you've got to pay for him, like 35 picks later than a Mon-Rah. That just feels too expensive. Like, I look at JMO and for all that he closed the gap last year, he only had two games over a 22% target share. Meanwhile, you've got Amarra who had 10 games over 18 ppr points in 2024. His touchdowns have grown in each of his four seasons in the NFL, 10 the previous year, 12 last year. And while we don't want to count on touchdown production year-to-year,

particularly whether's new offensive coordinator, I just think it shows that his role is fairly established. He had over 60 receptions more than Sam Leportar and Jammau last year. Like, there's just too much reliability in what we've seen from Amman Ra for me to be fading him. I get what Andrew's saying, but I think I'm still not quite ready to fade him at this point. Erick, in the next eight names in the overall half-PPR rankings after Amin Ra are Malik Neighbors, Ash and Genti, Niko Collins, Brian Thomas, Jr., Derek Henry, Devon A. Chan, Brock Bowers, and Christian McCaffrey. Do you want any of those guys?

Do you want all those players ahead of St. Brown? Or are there some that you would still take Amman Ra ahead of? I'd have to pull my exact rankings to give you the run. I mean, I think that it's, again, you listed off the next eight guys. I think that it's probably taking mostly all those guys over. I mean, he's my wide receiver nine, like I said. So I'd have to look exactly at my rankings. But for the most part, I mean, look, I'm just not going to draft.

I'm on-rott-St. Brown this year. And again, he's a sun god. I could get totally burned and totally cooked by him. as he's done year after year. But I just think that the price is more about last year not projecting. I mean, I just think James and Williams is going to be a thing. Like, this guy was a first round pick. He's fully healthy.

The suspensions are all behind him. And the OC, the first thing he says in the offseason this year, breakout year for Jameson Williams. And I'm thinking, wait, didn't we just have this happen last year? So if he takes another step forward, then I think that's going to eat into the sun god. I mean, I think it's also fair to just be worried in the sense of like, Jared Goff has never been good when he didn't have an elite play caller. And I think he is a better quarterback now than he was early on in his career.

Like I'm not here to fade golf. But it's just enough for me to say, well, maybe I look elsewhere than the guy who's been his top target, but may not even be his clear cut top target anymore. So I think it's a fair pick, even though I am not surprised people strongly disagree at the opposing. People are always going to disagree when you're picking guys in the first round, right? But again, not everyone's getting ahead. and obviously when guys get hurt, they obviously don't live up to their ADP.

Yeah. Tom, let's go to your first pick, a running back here. Yeah, and it's Jonathan Taylor. A lot of this, it just comes back to overall confidence level in the Colts. Like this time last year, I felt quite okay drafting Anthony Richardson. I felt quite okay drafting Josh Downs. And I felt okay about the Colts offense in general. And they were just a complete disappointment, despite the fact that they had a very soft division.

I think it wouldn't be surprising to see the division improve slightly this year. If that takes them out of more neutral scripts where they're able to run the ball and control things a bit, then that could be a slight ding on Jonathan Taylor. This offense last year wasn't a good offense. 14th in runoffense DVOA, 23rd in pass offense DVOA. 42% of Jonathan Taylor's points came in three performances last year. Two of those three were in week 16 and 17. So if you had Jonathan Taylor and you made it for semifinals or finals of any fantasy tournament,

then you're in good stead. but I just don't think that you were making it there with Jonathan Taylor very often. He was RB 14 or worse in 7 of 13 games last year, currently being drafted as the RB10. I just think that's too steep of a price to pay for him. Like when you look back at how he was actually performing for the vast majority of last season, weeks 1 to 13, ranked third among all of all running backs with 100 plus carries and stuffed run rate.

Now not all of that is always on the running back, but it didn't feel him overly impressive until he had those massive blow-up weeks at the end. And look, I also just really like DJ Giddens in the draft. So there's just a number of factors. But for me, I've got Jonathan Taylor down at RB-15, and he fell a few spots, I'd start to feel a lot more comfortable about it. Yeah, this is an interesting one. A lot of the names that you guys put into the sheet I am largely agreeing with.

This is one where I'm not saying I'm above consensus on Taylor, but I think I'm comfortable with where he's going. Like if I can get him in the mid to late second round, he's currently the 20th overall player. So maybe he's a little high at running back. But as far as the overall like names in that range, I think I'd be comfortable with that, especially if I'm getting a really strong receiver,

like in the middle of round one. I think I'd be okay with Taylor in round two. Erickson, I'm curious what you think about this one. Yeah, so I'm more in line kind of, I have him ranked where ECR has him ranked. So I kind of agree with you, Worm, where I'm comfortable taking him, but as Tom outlines the potential flaws, it just seems like there's a lot that could drag Jonathan Taylor down then for us to get,

oh, we're really excited about him. Like, I think he goes similar to Bucky Irving. I know Derek Dibrow is really high on Bucky Irving. I mean, we're excited about drafty Bucke Irving, right? He's a second year guy, going to take this massive leap. We don't care about Rashad White. But then Jonathan Taylor, it's he's trying to hold on to what he could do in this offense where we have concerns about the offense.

Every other Colts wide receiver, you can get a cheap discount, but you don't really get a massive discount with Jonathan Taylor, despite all of the question marks about who this is going to be the starting quarterback. What's the offensive line going to look like now that they've traded, or they got rid of half of their interior and is now in Minnesota? I know we talked about this on the running back show. Is Jonathan Taylor maxed out at RB10? Is that his ceiling finished?

Because we know he doesn't really catch passes. So that's an issue when it comes to half PPR and PPR formats. And if the offense struggles or is, in a below average scoring unit, well, where's the red zone opportunities for Jonathan Taylor? And so, yes, I think that maybe he can finish where he's being drafted, but it feels like it's closer to his potential ceiling with all the issues that Tom outlined. And that's kind of why I could see him being overvalued here. So yeah, that's kind of my take on it. That's fair. I think I just don't really like the back half of the second round this year very much. So that's why I'm

comfortable with Taylor being like, but I'm like looking at the names. He's sandwiched between Jacobs and Bucky Irving. I don't think that's unreasonable. I do like Ladd McConkey, who's right after those guys. And there's like Trey McBride. I don't know if I'm taking a tight end early if it's not Brock Bowers. Josh Allen, I'm not going to be the guy taking the QB in the second round. Kyron Williams, we're going to talk about later on the show.

Lamar, like JSN is a mid-second round pick. I like him. There's just a lot of names where I'm like, you know what? I'm okay. Just like taking a swing on Jonathan Taylor here. What round, not where is he ranked Tom amongst running backs for you, but where in the draft are you comfortable taking Taylor in terms of like late second, early third is that what you're hoping to do yeah so if i could get him on the two three turn like if i could

pair him with jama chase or you know that sort of 102 slot i think that's completely fine if i'm getting him there because as you say as you start to get towards the third round there's quite a few more question marks and perhaps it was last year if i could pair him you know again like with cv lamb i'd be okay with that i just need to feel really secure in my first round pick and towards the back half of the first rounds at the minute there are some some guys that we have question marks. I'm okay with him on Ross St. Brown, but you look at Malik neighbors and you're talking about QB issues, you talk about Ashton Gentie, and we are still talking about a rookie pook and

a coo and you can question Matthew Stafford. So really, I'd like to push them up to those first round talents that I feel a bit more secure about to be willing to take a chance on Jonathan Taylor because of the reasons I mentioned. One guy that we are not saying is overvalue today is Nico Collins. And if you want a chance to win a signed Nico Collins, Texans jersey for free, courtesy of our friends of pristine auction.com. All you have to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pro's YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below on any video, and that is it.

We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure to turn on those notifications so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize. We've got one more each of the early round overvalued players. Erickson, who you got? Tyree Kill, wide receiver for the Miami Dolphins. I want no part of Tyree Kel. I think that he is vastly overrated here as a top 36 overall player. Last year, he was wide receiver 33 in points per game.

And when Tua was healthy, he was still just wide receiver 18 in points per game. So we saw the sharp decline in terms of efficiency. His yards per route run plummeted to 1.75, which was nearly half of his 2023 mark now. He was coming off a monster number. So even 1.75 is really not that bad. But just compared to what he was doing before in this offense, it's a pretty steep, it's eye-opening of how badly things got for him. even when Tua was still in the games that Tua played. Because then we all know that Miami had a ton of quarterback issues,

and Jalen Waddle also suffered a lot of lack of production because of it. But I just think there's so many red flags. Receivers, I don't think, get better with age. We saw this with Cooper Cup, right? He starts to fall off a little bit. Michael Thomas, he starts to fall off a little bit. Now, those guys, a little bit more injury-related, but still, Tyree Kill, a guy that's always relied on,

I'm the fastest guy on the field. Well, if he's starting to lose a step here or there, I think that starts to really matter. He's going to be 31 years old this year. We've already seen some of the decline when it comes to the efficiency numbers. We had him dealing with this wrist injury all last year. Is that going to have a lingering effect on him as he goes into 2025? And then you have where does he stand in Miami's future plans?

What is Miami doing? Is Miami a potential dumpster fire this year on offense where he's Terry Kelly even on the roster? Now, that's ultimately going to be the reason why we get cooked here because Terry goes going to end up going back to the chiefs and he's going to be amazing. and that's why he's going to be a hit. But right now, drafting him as a top 36 overall player, I just want no part of drafting Tari Kill. He wasn't going in the, you know, as late as he is now a year ago.

But everything you just laid out is everything I said a year ago about why I was fading Tiree Kill, you know, into his 30s now, a guy who relies on speed, I'm not confident to his staying healthy. And I know it wasn't entirely Hill's fault that I ended up being kind of correct on fading him. but it was correct. And a lot of those same reasons still exist. I mean, he had 130 yards in week one last year.

It was his best week of the entire season. From week two on, he only topped 100 receiving yards once last year. Like it was not, and again, quarterback issues, of course, wrist issues, of course. But you don't get healthier with age. You don't get faster with age. And the quarterback staying healthy is going to be a concern as long as Tua is the starting quarterback, as disappointing as it is. So this might be the one.

And I most agree with either of you on this entire episode. I could not be more in lockstep with you, Eric, on Tarry Kill. There is no chance I'll be drafting him in any third round this year. Tom, what do you think? Yeah, I'm right there with you guys. This was such an easy one because the volume just wasn't there last year. You know, you talked about like the yardage wasn't there. But you only had two games where he had more than seven receptions.

Tyree Kill used to earn targets at such a high rate. The Dolphins don't seem to need him in the same way they used to. Maybe without changes. Johnny Smith gets traded and all of a sudden they don't have that checkdown outlet that they seem to use Johnny Smith for so much last year. But his yards per reception last year was this only the second time it's been below 12 in his entire career. His yards after the catch per reception was by far a career worst at 3.6, join lowest

touchdown output of his career. And I just think that what we're seeing is a wide receiver in decline, like Andrew said. Dwayne McFarlane, McFarlane, a fantasy life has done some fantastic research in the wide receiver's going off the cliff edge 31 and i just think that tyree kill is not going to be the same guy we ever saw him be a couple of years ago and for me i've got him down right around player 35 i think in my rankings and i could really see myself dropping him more and bringing jail and waddle up i'm looking at some of these other receiver names that are currently ranked after tyree kill terry mccloren i would rather have him garratt wilson i'd rather have him devonte adams i would rather

have him, even getting further down, I might rather just take the upside shot of Marvin Harrison Jr. than Tyreek even coming off of last year. Like, I just, I will not be drafting Tyreek unless his price goes way down. I think just based on the name value, that's not going to happen. Well, do you, would you rather have him or Jaylon Waddle? I would rather have Waddle. I mean, particularly at the cost it will take to get him, but I would. I mean, like, imagine if he'll fall, if he falls and then you're looking at the board, it's Hill and Waddle as the top two guys. Who are you going to click? I think I will be ranking Tyree higher than Waddle in my life accuracy.

Who are you going to click, Wharf? Who are you going to click? I would probably click Waddle, honestly. I'm willing to plant my flag on that take. Like, I think Waddle will be better than Hill this season. The line for me, when I was looking how far, if I was taking ADP out of it, how far would I drop Hill? It comes Jameson Williams, right between Devonter Smith and Jameson Williams. That's the volatility that I think that we're going to end up on.

And that's the kind of headache that it gives me. And right now I'm just in a holding pattern and just kind of ignoring it because the ADP is still high. But any reason I have to drop him and it will be plummet in. We agree too emphatically on this. So I'm sure we're going to get burned. But we are definitely all in lockstep on Tyree Kill. Tom, who's your last early round overvalued player? Yeah, and it's Karen Williams.

And I take no joy in this because Karen Williams last year when people were fading him, I was very much in on him. It's the second straight year that Rams Strait. drafted a rookie, which is probably a smart thing to be doing, an invest in draft capital in a position, but it's also not a ringing endorsement on Karen Williams. Last year, he averaged 81 rushing yards per game in 2024. That was fourth among running backs, but he also fumbled ball three times, ranked 35th in Duke rate among running backs with 100 plus carries.

And I think what we're going to see is a slight shift away from the running game with the addition of Devonte Adams. like Pook and Akua, for all this brilliance, isn't a great touchdown score. He's only combined across the last two seasons to score nine touchdowns. Cooper Cup's regression was massively clear, whereas Devani Adams is still a really good red zone player. I think that we're going to see some excellent connection between him and Matthew Stafford. And if that digs into Karen Williams' touchdown upside, then Karen Williams just can't

really afford that. Like Stafford wasn't a great fantasy option last year because he wasn't throwing touchdowns. through more than one touchdown, I think failed to throw for more than one touchdown in 10 of his 16 games. And I think Rams want to get that passing game going more. And if that dings Kieran, at the same time that we've got

these two young players behind him, and he's also slightly inefficient, I just can't build myself an argument on why I should be drafting Karen Williams as he slips into what we know is the running back dead zone, which looks more dead this year than it did last year.

The only reason I'm afraid to fade Kairn Williams is because I faded him a year ago and it burned me and I am just emotionally not ready to go through that again. But I agree with this pick and I was sitting here a year ago saying I'm not taking Kairn Williams where he's going and it's going a little later this year. But still, you know, hi. And I find myself thinking all the things I did a year ago except for I had this year where it burned me. So Erickson, what do you make it, Kiron Williams? Well, Worm, the thing is Tom is a. a person that's coming to the table saying he drafted Kyron last year and he's like, no.

Like the ride is over. Because I faded Karen too and I was totally wrong. But this year, no. Now even the supporters of Kyron are now fading, Kyron Williams. So I think that's a good thing to bring up because I think that the argument is just better and stronger this year. Now there's two potential rookie running backs that, or two running backs behind Kyron that we could see potentially taking on a larger role.

A lot of the coach speak this offseason has been about Sean McVeigh duplicating what Liam Cohen did in Tampa Bay, where they were using up to three running backs in games. It wasn't just one guy. I know we've also made the argument about fading Saquan Barclay when it comes to the volume and touches that he saw last year. Well, right behind him was Kyron Williams. So basically, he was second in touches and second inter, he was actually first in RB Snapshare. But when you look at the running backs that face planted the biggest in 2004. Three of those guys were Christian McCaffrey, Travis E.TN, Rashad White. What do they all have in common? They ranked one, two, and three in terms of total touches the year before. So just chasing the high

of that volume monster. And when Tom pointed out, the efficiency wasn't there for him last year. Like, he showed signs of that he's not breaking his many tackles. He's not getting as many yards after contact. You know who he actually looked like a lot when it came to his efficiency as a rusher? Naji Harris. That's what he looked like a lot when you just look at some of those advanced metrics and nobody is staking their claim for you've got to get Naji Harris.

He's going to be a great running back that you're going to build your offense around. So I think that Kairn projects, again, we like him because of the projection. If you look at some of the projections on the site, he's 10th in projection. So that's why I see you're afraid where I'm just like, oh man,

like what a Shaama Gray just does it again? He just gives him all the touches. But if he doesn't, then Kairin is going to be a bust and he's going to kill your lineup. So I'm with Tom here, much lower on Kiron. I know it feels like Groundhog Day, just doing the same thing over and over again, but I think this time it's going to work out. Let's go to our mid-round mistakes.

This is kind of guys that are in rounds four to eight overall, so that's roughly the range we're looking for here. Erickson, who do you think is overvalued in this range? I'm going to go with DJ Moore, wide receiver for the Chicago Bears. Last year, I don't need to get two in the weeds with it because we know the Bears' offense was really dysfunctional, but he was wide receiver 16 overall wide receiver 32 and points per game really booed by a lot of

that volume especially at the end of the year where he took on this very low average depth of target was basically the bubble screen king getting a ton of receptions but not really much yardage again career low yards per route run 25% bus rate that type of the third worst among wide receivers that finished inside the top 24 and i have legitimate questions about how he fits into this new offense with ben johnson so he is right now drafted as the bear's wide receiver one but i just think that the value proposition of just betting on, yep, DJ Moore's going to continue to just be the wide receiver one when I don't think it's, I don't think it's going crazy saying that is DJ more like a true alpha number one wide receiver? I don't really think I would describe that as his game.

Like he's a good, very good wide receiver and he popped in a big way with Justin Fields. But a lot of that in that season was him having a couple monster games here and there, creating yards after the catch, taking advantage of bad defenses. And yes, he can be a productive players. So I'm not ready to call DJ Moore a total bust, which is why I felt he was more overvalued because when I look at the Bears roster, I feel like I like the value propositions on a Roma Dunesay, on a Luther Byrne, just much later in the draft, betting on, well, what if Ben Johnson decides, no, this is the guy I want to build my offense through. When you look at DJ Moore, outside that wide receiver six finish in 2023, he's never finished inside the top

15 wide receivers in any other season that he's played and been healthy for. So if I fade him, the worst thing is probably okay he'll be a top 15 or he'll be right at the cusp of mid-range fantasy wide receiver too like i'm okay skipping on that whereas if i'm right about o dunzae or luther burden hitting as the new wide receiver one in this offense well that's going to be a league winning pick versus dj more where i feel like maybe at best like i'm hitting a double i feel like for a guy who has not been worse than wide receiver 22 in any year since his rookie season in 2018 that the floor is low for DJ Moore, despite the fact that he has had a very high floor in the past.

Now, a lot of that is not missing games. Obviously, that's overall finish, not a weekly per game finish, that number. And I think to that point, the fact that last year, he did not have 100 catches, he did not reach 1,000 yards, and he only had six receiving touchdowns.

His yards per reception was under 10 for the first time in his career, and he still finished wider receiver 16. I think that says more about the state of the position last season than it does about DJ more, you know, being a top 16 receiver in terms of fantasy value he gave to your team. And I agree with you. I think there's like every chance, like, I'm huge on Roma Dunezay.

I think there's every chance he could, you know, take a step forward and be the alpha in this offense. I like Luther Burden. Like, we, you know, we see it all the time when there's a new coach in town. If it's not a guy that they drafted, those guys tend to fall off, whether we agree with that decision or not. I'm surprised DJ Moore is, and again, this is kind of weird to say for a guy who has had a high floor in terms of his overall finishes for several years, but I'm surprised that he has even ranked as high as he is, truthfully.

I also think, too, like the chemistry with Caleb Williams just like never, like, it seemed like what DJ Moore was an advocate for Fields. Like that seemed like that was a legitimate thing. And that's when he was better. He was better with Justin Fields than Caleb Williams. Again, Caleb was a rookie and is a little bit different. But yeah, like, is that chemistry there? Like, who's to say Caleb's not going to lean more on a. Dunes. They lean more on Luther Bird.

And so I just, for those reasons, like, I just, I like the value more with these other Bears players. Tom, I'm not sure how you feel. Yeah, I'm kind of neutral on DJ Moore. I think the price, you know, on underdog best bowl, he's going at wide receiver 23, which kind of feels quite palatable to me for the reasons. But worm laid out, you know, this is a guy who doesn't tend to fail spectacularly. The point you make, Andrew, about the lack of chemistry with Caleb Williams definitely feels noteworthy.

like it felt like Keenan Allen had slightly better chemistry last year and he was getting those kind of layups to the slot that made it so much easier for Keenan Allen to produce down the stretch. Roman Dunsay didn't do much but obviously the potential is massive there. Luther Burden quite volatile

as a prospect and I do like Colston Loveland. He was my tight end one going into the draft but I still think that what we get out of DJ Moore is probably a player who's going to be playing in two wide receiver sets and if he's on the field I think that he's got a good chance to still earn enough targets to be relevant.

I mean, last year he finished ninth among wide receiver in targets. And he's in a range of a minute between Travis Hunter and Tett McMillan, where I think it's quite easy to say, okay, can I see this veteran DJ more having a better season than Travis Hunter and Tick McMillan? And it's quite easy to tell yourself a story there that the veteran ends up doing better. if you want to shoot for upside, then by all means go with the rookies who undeniably have that unknown. But I think I'm just kind of okay with it. He's not a player that I'd want on every roster I draft this offseason, but he's not a player that I'm marking way down in my rankings so I don't see him.

Tom, let's stick with you for your next pick. Yeah, so my next pick is another running back. I mean, it's probably not surprised for somebody who's a big zero RB guy, but James Cook is somebody that I'm, really struggling with, you know, the contract issues are continuing to linger. This is a Bill's team that went into the offseason and were so proactive in resigning players who they wanted to get onto better contracts. Cook, coming off, leaving all players in touchdown scored last year, 17, like, that should be a player that a team really wants to sign,

but it just doesn't seem like the bills are willing to give him the kind of money that he wants. He's been quite vocal about wanting a good high-end deal. And Cook, that season, it feels like quite an outlier. You know, he only had nine touchdowns in the previous two seasons combined. He was massively reliant on those touchdowns through his scoring last year. 39% of his fantasy points came from touchdowns. He ranked 24th among running backs in total scrimmage yards. So there were games where if he wasn't getting a touchdown,

then he wasn't getting you the kind of points that you needed to be able to compete with the top end running backs. And this offense, the bills, they just nullify. any kind of star factor outside of Josh Allen. Josh Allen is a superstar and then trying to bet on any of the players in the Bill's offense to have consistent fantasy output, it's really difficult because it'll just be weeks where it's one guy, weeks where it's another. And last year, James Cook got their free touchdowns and that's not something that I'll necessarily want to bet on this year.

Yeah, Cook and Erickson, I'm curious what you think about this. I'm not at the point in my fantasy playing career where I am just blanket auto out on anybody who is like holding out during the off season. And obviously there's still time for the contract stuff to get resolved. It's still only May. But I'm not far off from that thought. I just feel like it always burns you. There's always a slow start. And I just don't want to, especially this early in the draft where you need to be drafting Cook coming off of his year last year.

I just don't want to be in that business of a guy who. Especially running back. Start like that. Yeah. I, to me, it's, it's very easy to fade, given that contract situation, which again, Erickson, there is still time for that to get fixed. Yeah, but it's still kind of in the back of your head where last year he shows out, he scores all these touchdowns, and then he wants to get paid.

He's not going to score 19 touchdowns, yeah. That's very unlike that he's going to score that many. Now, it's more like it's going to hit that average. So if you play as the full season, he'll probably end up being somewhere in the double digits. eight to nine to ten touchdowns, I think is probably a safe bet for him to make kind of breaking the middle between the last two seasons. And so I'm like more in line with James Cook in terms of ECR, but I would agree with, I don't necessarily love taking the running backs in this kind of range. Like I have question marks, but like, Breece Hall kind of goes in that

range. Again, Kyron goes in there. I would take James Cook over Kyron. So I'm not like that far out on Cook where I'd be teaching Kyron over him. But I think that the usage point is a really good thing to bring up where he's not getting he was not getting there because of the usage i mean average 14.1 touches per game he's playing under 50% of the snaps rb 26 and expected fantasy points per game and we know the touches are probably going to come down like he's probably just not going to score that many so i think it's a case of you should draft james cook last year and if you didn't don't get caught don't don't don't chase it right just be like right i lost take the out and kind of move on and just like hey we got to figure out who could be this year's james cook i think that's kind of like the lesson here it's

like don't chase James Cook season from last year, try to find the, who can be this year's James, who can cash it on this massive touchdown regression. So, but I will say with Cook, so we have a 28 game sample size of him in Joe Brady's offense, basically since he took over, I think at the second half, I remember, it was like two and a half years ago, somewhere along those lines, but average 15.5 fantasy points per game since that point over that 28 games, and that's good low-end fantasy RB1 production. So I think if he stays healthy shows up, he's going to end up being a low-end RB1, not the worst pick, but I think that we can do better.

These aren't the only three running back names in this tier, but I want to ask about these three. Erickson, who would you rather draft? And I'm going to ask you the same question, Tom, after Erickson. Who would you rather draft out of Breeshall, James Cook, Kenneth Walker? My, my, actually, I want Tom to go first. Okay, Tom, you can go first. Yes, I mean, I've got Brees Hall as my 32nd player overall, James Cook, 41st, and then Kenneth Walker down at 45.

So it's Brees Hall for me I don't feel particularly good about any of those guys And I generally just prefer the wide receivers in this tier But yeah I mean we'll get to one of those in a bit Eric, If it helps, I'll go before you I would go Brees Hall, then Walker, then Cook for me So I have it ranked Hall, Cook, and then Walker

So the same as Tom, but I don't know if it's D-Bro is in my ear About Ken Walker That's exactly why I said Walker But every time I look at Walker I'm like, man, I just, I know that, I just feel so confident that when he is healthy, playing in this offense for Seattle, that he's going to be a smash. I feel very confident about that with Ken Walker. Well, let me ask you this, DJ Moore or Kenneth Walker, because they are very close in the overall rankings. I would take care.

I definitely agree with that too. I just wanted to make sure. All right. Let's go to Erickson, your next receiver. I know Tom's going to hate this one. So that's why I had to make sure I put on the list. So Devontas Smith, for me, for the wide receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles. This one, I feel like I have to, I'm bringing it up every year with Devante Smith where

I want to recognize that he's a really good, real-life wide receiver. But is he always the best fantasy option? So last year, eight games with both AJ Brown and Dallas Goddard active in the lineup, he averaged 8.3 fantasy points per game. That was wide receiver 51, basically looking at the season-long averages. But when one of those guys missed time, he averaged almost 15 points per game, which was fantasy wide receiver one. For me, with Devante Smith, it's really about what your roster looks like.

And because when those other guys are healthy, like, he doesn't produce. He's not putting up numbers where you can even feel good about putting him in your starting lineup. But the upside is there. So when a guy misses time, okay, he smashes. But I'm not so sure that where I have to draft Devonta Smith, I want to make a bet on injury contingency where, okay, now I can just bank on one of these guys missing and then I'm locked and loaded to go.

So I recognize, and that's why I put Smith in here as this overvalued conversation, not as a bust, because just look at his career. There's no bust finishes in his career. Like, he's been a really solid receiver in fantasy since he ended in the NFL. But I get, I get concerned when he starts to steam up as a wide receiver two with two other strong target earners on his team in an offense that really likes to run the football a ton. So those are the reasons why DeVontes Smith, I just am hesitant to. draft where he ends up going in a lot of these fantasy drafts. There's also a difference I just want to say, because you mentioned the kind of the bust factor. This episode isn't busts, right?

That can be kind of part of the conversation, but it's overvalued players. And some players who are high floor can still be overvalued because we are not confident in the ceiling or because we think the floor isn't as high as we saw. It doesn't necessarily mean they're going to be a bust and completely tank your season. It's just they're not going to be worth it where they're going. Yeah. So that's kind of the point. I'm just trying to make with Smith is, I think that, again, at the end of the day, he's probably

going to end up finishing somewhere in the 30, 35 range at worst. But if these guys don't miss games after they miss games last year, then he's not going to be, he's going to be a dead party your roster that you can't start confidently. And I think in best ball is a little bit different. I think that he's a better best ball option because of the upside they can offer on a week-to-week basis if one of these guys misses. But there's a lot of guys, a lot of receivers that I think I can get still later where you're getting some similar contingency upside. If there's a an injury that just don't cost as much. What do you think about this one, Tom?

I know Erickson kind of predicted you were not going to agree with it. Yeah, I mean, I love the Slim Reaper. Like, he's such a fun player to watch, such a good receiver. And I just, I don't want to fade Devontersmith. Like last year was the first season in the NFL way he's had less than 100 targets. His stats have been pretty much stable. A year, yards per target, yards per game, touchdowns. Yeah, yeah, it's all fairly consistent.

And wide receiver 29 on underdog ADP, I know at the minute he is, like that feels fine to me. He's at 8 20 plus point games over the last two years. I think it kind of goes back to what Erickson touched on about how your roster looks. If you're drafting Devontersmith as your wide receiver 2, that's probably a lot more of a hard sell. But if I can get him as my wide receiver 3 or even my wide receiver 4, then I'd feel a lot more comfortable with it.

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See terms at pick6.draftkings.com slash promos. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.

And... Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of... of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas,

and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game.

This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear.

The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. SportsSlice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicleaf 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Tom, let's go to your next overvalued player. And it hurts me to do this, but it's Debo Samuel, a guy. I was ahead of consensus on all last year.

I thought he was going to get the perfect runout when Brandon I.U. got injured. It was all set up for him, and he flopped in a massive way. He just looked completely out of juice. He had the lowest receiving success rate of his career by far. He'd never been below 47% previously 40% last year. Russian yards before contact,

that dropped from 3.8 yards down to 1.6. Now, obviously, he's on a new offense with the commanders. They didn't spend that much on him. It was only a fifth round pick. He's got no guaranteed money going beyond this year. He ranked 77th in targets per outrun, so he wasn't really earning them at a high rate. And that was even with Brandon Iyukoff Field.

He was 51st among wide receivers in first read rate. The 49ers seemed to know that he didn't quite have it last year, and Brock Purdy seemed to know he didn't quite have it last year, and just wasn't targeting him that much. And I think that this offense with the commanders is going to continue to run through Terry McClory, and I've got much more faith in him and I just don't really

want to be drafting Debo Samuel like I'd probably put him around about round seven before I'd feel comfortable on him. This is another very strong agree by me. I promise you if he stays in this range, I will be ranking him below consensus

come end of August. I think this is too high and pretty much for all the reasons you just said I don't need to rehash them. I really strongly agree with Tom on this one. And where do you have Debo Samuel? Ranked very, very low. So someone that I'm also not interested in Debo Samuel.

It's fun. You know, if you look at the Fantasy Pros ECR rankings, it has a cool tool and filter where you can see how often a player beat their weekly projection. He beat, so in 15 games that he played with the projection, for he had fantasy points, he went over his projection three times. 20% of his games, he exceeded expectations before the game. game started. So yes, there's no sugarcoding. He was terrible last year. I know that he did deal with a bunch of injuries. I know that he had the, I believe it was pneumonia that he was dealing with.

So, so I think that those backing Debo will come with to the argument with, well, you know, he's banged up. He was he was playing through illness. It's like, okay. And Tara McClorin is also having me mentioned the holdout. Ter McClorin is currently also like holding out for a new contract. So if there's an issue where Terry McClorn gets banged up or something and he pulls his hamstrung, and then Debo is the default number one. I could see a scenario where this maybe looks bad in the beginning of the season. But, Warren, I'm telling you right now,

the first guy I'm putting on the trade high show, sell high after Debo scores an 80-yard touchdown, is, like, he's going, he's the number one guy. I'm going right to the sheet the minute that he scores a long touchdown with his yards out to the catch in week one, and he's going to be a sell high for me. Because we've seen, like, he doesn't last. He's not going to play all 17 games.

He gets hurt all the times, 29 years old. And I guess I'm not as optimistic. about Cliff Kingsbury, just using him in this super dynamic way, where didn't Cliff Kingsbury have Rondell Moore for like the longest time? And we never got any creative usage out of that type of explosive player, like running back wide receiver hybrid. I mean, it took us a long enough to get McCorrent away from just lining up on one side of the field. It took us like the entire season. So just projecting Debo to have this crazy, unique or running back wide receiver role, I think is just being a little bit too optimistic. So even if Debo makes me look bad for the first

month while he's healthy, I think you're going to be better off when the season comes down to the fantasy playoffs. That's the exact point I was going to make when I first saw this name on the sheet is I don't like, he outside of the 2021 season, D-W Samuel has never had 900 receiving yards in a season. He's never had double-digit receiving touchdowns. The elite awesome seasons have been driven by these rushing touchdowns and just the rushing usage. In no way, shape, or form do I trust the commanders to do that. I still don't think Cliff Kingsbury is is a very good offensive coach.

I think he got an incredible rookie quarterback who covered up a lot of Kingsbury's warts. Like I don't, I follow a lot of commanders fans on Twitter. And a lot of them we're talking about like, you know, oh, like, you know, we really need him to not get poached for a head coaching job. And I was like, I think you can do a lot better than Cliff Kingsbury. You should hope that somebody, you know, saves you from that mess and allows you to make a better high. Because I, like, I don't think he's the worst offensive coordinator in football, but I don't think he's very good. I don't think his stuff is very inspired or creative. And Debo Samuel, I think to be an awesome fantasy asset needs an inspired and creative play caller.

And I just don't think that even setting aside injury risks in another year older and, you know, coming off this down season. So, yeah, I am not in on Samuel in Washington. And I'm not in on him in fantasy. Erickson. next mid-round mistake. Jordan Addison, wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings, looking at Addison's finish last year.

So he scored eight of his nine touchdowns after week nine. So before that, when he wasn't scoring any touchdowns, he was under nine fantasy points per game. So well outside the wide receiver three range. When you look at his target share in the Vikings' offense, even when T.J. Hawkinson wasn't part of the offense. He never topped a 20% target share on the year.

I was expecting going back to see, okay, his target share was probably north of the offense. 20% start the year with no Hawkinson. That wasn't the case. Like, his target share never crested more than 20% when all these guys were healthy at any point. And now you're throwing in a brand new quarterback. Again, we expect the system in Minnesota to be great. It's always been great with the current head coach in place there. But it's still a projection. And I guess for me, I also think the Vikings, I think they want to run the ball a little bit more just given the fact that they're having

a brand new quarterback who's never played in the NFL coming off a major knee injury. and they just bolstered up that interior offensive line. They traded for Jordan Mason. They have Aaron Jones. Why not give your young quarterback a really solid run game? Play bully ball a little bit to make his life easier and not put everything on his shoulders. So if that means Addison is now the wide receiver, the basically 2A or 2B option in the passing game, when an offense that isn't leading the league in terms of passing yards and pass rate over expectation,

well, that I don't think he's going to pay off, especially with all of his, both of his, seasons, he scored a ton of touchdown. So you have to win with a lot of efficiency with Jordan Addison. Now, to say he's a bad player, I don't think that he's a bad player, but just looking at the optics of the situation, I could see him underwhelming. And for him to sneak into the top 24, three years in a row, also considering that he may get suspended at some point for the DUI that happened in 2024. So that still hasn't been totally finalized. But I think at this point, there's more information, there's more, you know, smoke around Addison probably missing games this year than Rashi Rice.

So that's something to also kind of pay attention to where if he's going to miss one or three games, there's another reason why I don't feel like dealing with potentially a number three target with a brand new quarterback. So for me, that's why Addison is someone that I think is a little bit overvalued. Yeah, Addison is really interesting because I do kind of think, you know, so the last two years he's been around 100 targets, around 65-ish receptions, and around 900 receiving yards. I think all three of those are very possible to repeat again for a third straight year,

but it's the touchdowns. 10 in year one, nine in year two. That's where he has to be really efficient again. Like you said, Erickson, he also had a rushing touchdown last year, so a total of 10 in both years. And that's where you get a little worried. We talked last year a lot, I remember Erickson. I think mostly when we're talking about the Bears situation,

but about how difficult it is for rookie quarterbacks to support more than one great fantasy receiver. And you say, you know, it's a new quarterback coming in. It essentially is a rookie quarterback coming in, even though he's had a year to just sit with the system. you know, get to know Kevin O'Connell and these guys. It's essentially a rookie quarterback at the NFL level. Those guys often struggle to have multiple high-level fantasy receivers.

We know Justin Jefferson is not going to be the guy who gets short shrift here. So I think this is a really fair one. Again, I kind of think the targets, receptions, and yards will be largely in the same range. I do think it'll be a lot of spike weeks and then a lot of nothing weeks to get to that point. And then it's just going to come down to the touchdowns again. Tom, what do you make it, Addison? Yeah, I think you both making really good. points on this one because there's definitely a concern about what this

offense is going to look like. I've got plenty of faith in Kevin O'Connell that he's going to get J.J. McCarthy playing to a decent level. And I've got plenty of faith that Jordan Addison's stats aren't going to completely plummet. The 19 touchdowns in two seasons, like touchdown production might not be sticky. We've talked about that already and there's plenty written about that. But 19 touchdowns in two seasons is quite an impressive number. Like that's the 12th most. through two seasons all time. Jamar Chase was only at 22.

AJ Brown was only at 19. AJ Green was at 18. Julio Jones was at 18. These numbers are really strong and really impressive. If that regresses, can he make up for it in other ways? I'm not too sure, but I'm quite comfortable with Jordan Addison at this range in the draft. I just don't really feel like I completely want to fade him.

And part of that kind of comes down to the players who come after him. feels like this is like the edge of a tear break where the wide receivers coming after him guys like Chris Olive, Joan Jennings, George Pickens, Jacoby Myers. Like it feels like there are a lot of question marks around those players and the offenses they're on maybe. And mixing in a guy like Jordan Addison, when I've got a fair idea of what he is as a player, what the Vikings are or could be as an offense, I'm okay with it. I don't really lean one way or the other strongly. The other thing I want to just quickly mention on Addison is I have this image of my head of him getting a lot of kind of big play for a lot of those touchdowns specifically.

And they drafted Ty Felton on day two. And I think that was a bit of a reach on Felton, even though he's a terp. But that is his best skill set is the deep plays in my opinion. So if some of those longer touchdowns and the big play touchdowns go to Felton, you know, that will hurt Addison in that regard. Even aside from a healthy Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hawkins. The Vikings, too, and I only remember this because of all my Aaron Jones anytime touchdown bets I made, they were one of the worst running, like trying to convert at the goal line with the running backs. They were one of the worst teams, like, offensively last year.

So what happens when they didn't score a rushing touchdown, oh, Jordan Addison finds the end zone yet again. So if Jordan Mason comes in and ends up being that banger in between the tackles, third and one, that's punch it in, okay, then you're seeing where the touchdowns aren't there for Addison in year three. Addison is one of those guys where I just like the player. So I do think I will have him in some leagues. And honestly, if he's healthy, I feel similarly about the next guy who Tom just alluded to in his last bit, talking about Addison, his final mid-rounder stake here.

I feel similarly where I just like the player. And I really want him to be good and get the usage I want to see, assuming he's healthy. Yeah, I mean, it's Crystal Larvae. And definitely I would love to see a healthy and emphatic season from Crystal Larvey. but I'd just largely want to avoid the Saints this year, much like we kind of talked about with the cults and my Jonathan Taylor pick.

This is a team, the stink on the Saints is so bad. Last year, the offensive line ranked 22nd in PFF grades, and I feel like it's going to be quite difficult for them a rate better. The quarterback situation is a complete nightmare. And I look back at the early part of the season

when both Chris Alavi and Rashid Shaheed were healthy. and it was all Rashid Shaheed. Like, Shaheed had a 30% target share compared to Alavi's 21%. Shaheed was the wide receiver 10 in that period compared to Alave being the wide receiver 46. Now, Shahid's production was quite fluky. He ranked really highly in air yards per target, much higher in actual converted and realized air yards per target than most of the guys who rank high in that metric.

So perhaps that comes back a little bit. But I think Rashid Shahid is the real deal. I also like Joanne Johnson. I think that Alvin Camaro is going to see a ton of a ball. And I just don't think that Chris Alabe in this iteration of the Saints offense is going to have enough upside where I want him on my team. I just think that he's going to be a floor player in 2025. Erickson, what do you think of Alave? He's currently overall 60th in our half-PPR rankings.

And Widerceiver 29. Is that too high, too low or just right? I think it is way too high. I agree that Chris Alave is massively overvalued. I think at the point about Rashid Shaheed is not being talked about enough. Rashidjahed has not only outproduced Chris Olavay last year, but it's been a trend. Like going back to since they've been playing together the last couple of years, their receiving yards per game aren't that far off.

It's only Alive by about 10 yards. So Rashidjitjahed has been a very underrated player and was, looked like he was going to break out all over the place before he got hurt last year. So from an upside bet, right? Because we always want to try to draft for upside, especially when it comes to some of wide receivers. Where's the upside case for Chris Olavé? This guy doesn't create yards after the catch, which means he has to be reliant on accurate passes. Okay, you have Tyler Schuck coming in, 27-year-old court. I don't know how a 26-year-old quarterback coming in as a rookie, and

like the upside is more attached to Shaheed, right? Why would I just take Rashid Jihad later on after he out-produced Chris Alave last season? When you look at just top 12 weekly finishes over the past two seasons, Chrisel Lave has averaged two per year. over the last two seasons. Rashid Shaheed has more top 12 weekly finishes than Chris Olive over the past two seasons. So when you're looking for upside, just wait and take Rashid Shaheed.

It's the exact same bet you're making except you're paying a fraction of the cost. So if you think that, hey, maybe the Saints can surprise. I'm a big Tyler Shuck guy. Then don't, I would just invest in Shaheed instead. And again, I'm not saying that's going to be the case that I want to be a Tyler Shuck person. I really don't want to draft any Saints either.

But if I have to draft one, I'll just take Shahid Shahid Sheen. If you're tired of draft A uncertainty, the cheat sheet creator is your personal guide to perfect league-specific rankings. Visualize your path to victory as you add tiers and sync your league to craft custom rankings, ensuring every pick is strategic and tailored to your league settings. Sync your league and enter your draft with confidence using the cheat sheet creator at fantasy pros.com slash sheet or on the fantasy football draft wizard app. Guys, let's do one overhyped sleeper each. This is round nine or later. We can go a little quicker on here because it's less really an overvalued guy

and more just kind of a sleeper maybe that you're not totally buying into and are, you know, it feels weird to say avoid when you're this late. But it's not a guy you're targeting as one of your later round sleepers. So we'll go a little quicker here. Erickson, who do you have? Tyrone Tracy, running back for the New York Giants. I just don't, I think when it's all sudden done, I don't think he's going to be the starting running back for the New York Giants.

So that's my concern about where he's ranked going ahead of Cam Scadaboo. I get why you'd have him ranked ahead of Cam Scatibu, but Tyrone Tracy, if you look at him last year, it was kind of the tale of two seasons, right? When he first took over the job, he was very efficient, very explosive, but weeks 12 through 18, he was PFF's fourth,

worst graded rusher. He's splitting carries inside the five-yardland with Devin Singletary. He had ball security issues, third-most fumbles among running backs. How many fumbles is going to take for Brian Dabell to just be like, I'm sick of this guy,

let's get Cam Scadaboo in there, right? Every game the Giants play, they have to win for them to keep their jobs. And guys, Spoiler, their schedule's really hard. So they can't afford turnovers and dumb mistakes by young players. So I just think that his leash on the RV1 role is super, super loose. I just don't think that he has a vice grip on it.

And when you look at the way that the Giants have orchestrated or have kind of created this back, though you have Devin Singletary as a veteran presence. You have Tyrone Tracy. Tyrone Tracy seems like the complimentary back to a starter like Camp Scadabu. where Tyrone Tracy is the change of paceback comes in as a burst of explosiveness. But Cam Scada, but we know he can play on all three downs. He know that we can catch passes out of the backfield. Even though Tyrone Tracy played wide receiver,

it's still a little bit different when you're catching passes out of the backfield versus running routes from the slot or from out wide. So I think that Scadaby is a legitimate threat. And there's only really, based on how we expect this Giants offense to be, probably not that good, any type of workload that Taran Tracy is losing out to Camp Scalda. Ccababot thing's going to hurt him a lot. Any quick thoughts, Tom, on Tracy versus Scataboo in that backfield?

Yeah, I'm just right there with Erickson. It just doesn't feel like a pick that I want to make. They seem so hot and cold on him last year and Devin Singletary's presence there. It'd be so much easier to take Tracy if Devin Singletary had been cut. But as it is, like, just give you Scataboo instead. Tom, who is your last player here? Yeah, it's Jaden Blue for the Cowboys, like, going currently about pick 130. And I've done this whole who else is going to get the touches argument before.

It doesn't feel great. This is a guy who was a fifth round pick of the 24th running back off board of the draft. Only had one college season over 400 yards. I just legitimately think that he could be a special team's only type player. Now, obviously, he's probably going to get touches in this offence because it is just Giovanni Williams and Miles Sanders ahead of him. They have experience in things that actually matter to NFL offenses. and just penciling in a guy with very little college production into a starter role or into a meaningful role isn't something I want, particularly in managed leagues.

And like just give me guys like Trey Benson, Ray Davis, Rashard White, who are all going around them instead. I just do not want to make this bet at this price. Debrough, our colleague, has been very in on this idea that Jaden Blue, like he doesn't hate Blue, but this idea that he's going to take over this backfield, even on passing downs, which is kind of, I think, the stereotype that people are thinking about for Blue, he's not a very good pass protector. Like, I think, and we talked about this Erickson, of course, on the running back ranking show that we just did earlier this week, where you and me and D.Rowe are all,

we're not like over the moon about Jvante Williams, but we're all higher than consensus on him. Well, he's this year's J.K. Dobbins. Tom, are you joining the lockstep with this call here? We have the next J.K. Dobbins is Javent. You can kind of drag me along at a slow J.K. Dobbins, like pace. Well, I mean, I think you really kind of have to be in on him if you are fading blue because

this is going to be a good offense. Maybe not an elite offense, but I think if DAC is healthy and C.D. Lamb is healthy. It's going to be at the very least a good offense. And I think Miles Sanders couldn't be more washed. So if we think blue is maybe a little bit overhyped too, somebody is going to get some valuable touches. And I think Javante Williams has a better chance than the other two guys in this backfield. so I know we're not talking about Javante,

but I mean, it's kind of a counterpoint to, or it's kind of the other side of the coin of fading Jaden Blue. Yeah, I would agree with Jaden Blue being maybe a little overvalued. I think that we love how he's explosive and he can catch passes out of the backfield, but that doesn't mean he's going to get goal line touches. That doesn't mean he's going to catch all the dump offs from Dack Prescott. But yes, he'll look great running a wheel route from Dack Prescott,

and then he won't play any more snaps in the game. Like that's the issue with Jaden Blue is I think, let's say Javante flops. I don't think they're going to be like, all right, let's low Jaden Blue up with 20 carries. I think it's just going to be like, hey, who's going to be the next innings of year? Like, Miles Sanders, get in there. Just take carries. So Jaden Blue, I agree, is going to look explosive in this offense and things he can rip off big plays.

But is that going to be predictive of, okay, now you feel good about starting Jaden Blue. Oh, we got five touches the next week. So, like, that's the concern is that he's just a compliment to which one of these guys. So I think if Javante hits, I think he's probably a bigger win than if Jaden Blue is just kind of like used seldomly based on the fact. Oh, he also has fumble security issues as well. well past pro like you said worms so yeah i think that jane blue probably a little bit overvalued as well to to that point you know we're saying that he's overvalued in the rankings his adp is 30 spots higher than where he's currently ranked in eCR so it's he's all right and that there's a lot

of room for that to change obviously between now and the end of august but he's already going well ahead of where the experts are ranking him and we're even saying that the experts are maybe ranking him a bit too high so definitely be uh at least thinking about that if you are targeting him as a sleeper in your redraft leagues. We'll go ahead and wrap up there because it's super late for Tom right now. Tom, thanks for staying up late with us a little FP After Dark,

at least from your perspective. For Tom and Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Go Ravens. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pro's Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show,

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