The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - Is Christian McCaffrey Worth The Risk? | BOOM Or BUST Running Backs: Draft Or Fade? (Ep. 1595)

Episode Date: June 22, 2025

Join Ryan Wormeli, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Jake Ciely as they break down four boom or bust running backs, and weigh the pros and cons of drafting them to your 2025 fantasy football teams! Timestamps: (May be off due to ads) Intro - 0:00:00 Signed George Pickens Jersey Giveaway - 0:00:12 Christian McCaffrey - 0:00:50 Ashton Jeanty - 0:04:00 FantasyPros Discord - 0:06:25 Isaiah Pacheco - 0:06:51 Breece Hall - 0:09:25 Outro - 0:12:55 Helpful Links: Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator - Our Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator lets you complete a mock in minutes with no waiting between picks! Customize your league settings to match your league’s exact format. Premium subscribers can test trade scenarios by mocking with their traded draft picks. Prepare for rookie drafts AND dynasty startup drafts in one place! Use the Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator to dominate your rookie draft today at fantasypros.com/simulator! Discord - Join our FantasyPros Discord Community! Chat with other fans and get access to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Come get your questions answered and BE ON THE SHOW at fantasypros.com/chat Leave a Review – If you enjoy our show and find our insight to be valuable, we’d love to hear from you! Your reviews fuel our passion and help us tailor content specifically for YOU. Head to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts and leave an honest review. Let’s make this show the ultimate destination for fantasy football enthusiasts like us. Thank you for watching and for showing your support – https://fantasypros.com/review/ BettingPros Podcast – For advice on the best picks and props across both the NFL and college football each and every week, check out the BettingPros Podcast at bettingpros.com/podcast, our BettingPros YouTube channel at youtube.com/bettingpros, or wherever you listen to podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

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you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros football podcast. I'm Ryan Warmly joined for this short form video by Pat Fitzmores and by Jake Sealy of the Athletic. Guys, we are talking boom or bust running backs.

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Steelers, Jersey. All right, guys, we've got a couple of running backs each. Just talking to some boomer bus guys. And if we're interested in them or not this season, Fitz, we'll start off with you. Who's your first boomer bust running back? It's the ultimate boomer bust running back warm. McAfrey, who was the consensus 101 in 2024 fantasy drafts and was a Hindenburg-level disaster for whoever took him. The risk is obvious. He played four games last year. Over his 10-year career, there have been four seasons where McCaffrey played seven or fewer games, and now he's 29 years old. But the potential rewards are so great with McCaffrey.

He is two years removed from having more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdown. He's in a Kyle Shanahan offense, and Shanahan has shown a proclivity to feed him. Tons of targets, tons of carries. If McCaffrey is healthy, he is going to smash. But I think your willingness or unwillingness to draft CMC should probably depend on where you are in your league's food chain. Like, if you're a shark swimming with fish, do you really want to risk a first-round pick on a player with such a checkered medical history? But if your league is teeming with sharks, like it might be worth the risk to you because, a healthy season out of McCaffrey would give you a spear gun to deal with those sharks.

You know, I almost see it differently fits. On that philosophical point, I feel like if I consider myself to be the shark in this scenario, I'm more willing to take on the risk because I have a lot more faith that I will make up for it if it doesn't work out later on in the draft and on the waiver wire. I guess, but that would be like a, you know, not having a dorsal fin to swim around and hunt fish with worms. So that would be a pretty big disadvantage. But I don't know.

For me, he's a boom. He's my RB5. I initially had him lower in my rankings this offseason, but I have moved him up just knowing what the potential reward is with McCaffrey. Yeah, Jake, hard to get more of a boomer bust than the last two seasons. RB1, RB72. Yeah, pretty much. And I think, I thought Fiss was going to say because he'd been doing shows with me

that he moved him up because I have Christian McCaffrey at RB4. I've had him at RB4. I've had him at RB4. The crazy thing is, even pulling back, the season two years ago that Fitz is talking about 340 almost, I think it was 339, and touches, even if you pull that back to about 320, over 17 games, that was in 16 games, which I did my projections. I'm like, all right, you know, maybe he's still Christian McCaffrey, but Shanahan says,

all right, I just don't need to kill him. Maybe I'll pull back 5%, 10%. He still checks in projections wise as, guess what, RB1, just because he's Christian McCaffrey on a per touch basis, which is pulled back from two years ago. on the touchdown rate, which is pulled back from two years ago. Like I pulled all those numbers back and he still checks in with a gap over Gibbs at number two. In projections, again, I'm not taking him there.

I'm still taking Bejohn, Barclay and Gibbs. But the upside is enormous and the upside is RB1 if he even plays 16 games. So top five running back, you just quickly because we obviously, this is a shorter episode. Is he a first round pick for you then, Jake? Back into the first round every single time. Back end of the first. Fitz, is he a first run pick for you, too, or trying to wait till the second? Yeah, I mean, I love to wait till the second, but he's right around that one two turn for me.

Okay. Let's go to the next running back here. Jake, who you got? Yeah, I'm going to go Ashton Genty, just because I think that we all know the workload should be similar to Christian McCaffrey. We're talking about somebody who should walk into a workload like Bijan Robinson. But I think Bejohn Robeson is a good litmus test for the risk of a rookie running back in what we think should be a fine situation and what we think should be Belcout

issues work and that yes he had Tyler Algear and i don't think anybody on the raiders is of the Tyler Algear ilk but that being said is my bigger concern for Genty is as great as he is as a pass catcher is how much does he see in the passing game you're talking about Brock Bowers jacobie mire's jack bash there's early talk about Thornton and all the rest there's just a lot of options here from gino where i don't know that gentie walks into rookie 60 70 targets and also we have to acknowledge the schedule. Like the schedule gets overrated, but you do have to acknowledge it a little bit. For running back specifically, it is one of the tougher on-paper schedules, mostly facing the chiefs twice in a year is going to be a big death knelt to a lot of running backs as we saw last year.

But I just think that Gentie for what he is, I'm excited as anybody else is. He's one of the best running backs to come out since Sparkley, since Ezekiel Elliott, and that should be the potential for him. But I think that he's more of a back-end RB1 for me. than mid-first round where like a lot of people want to take them. And honestly, I would still take a few running backs this year, including Jacobs workload, Derek Henry, even A-chan in the conversation. And then I would think about Jinty kind of in the conversation with like a Bucky Irving and Chase Brown. Fitz, what's the non-injury downside to Jente this year?

Boy, I don't know that there is one. I'm a firm believer in the talent. I think the line is good enough. I think it's a Pete Carroll coach team. And Chip Kelly has always, like, had a balanced offense. What I love is that Chip Kelly has always run his offense at a breakneck pace. So, like, he is going to operate quickly. That's going to be more plays per game for the Raiders.

It's going to mean, like, an advantage at the margins with Genty who's going to get more touches out of that. Like, I think he's really good. And, oh, by the way, Jake, that, you know, two games for the Raiders to get. the Chiefs, one is in week 18. So you only really have to worry about one. That's true. Everybody can join our Fantasy Pro's Discord community and chat with other fans and get access

to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Here's our current schedule. Myself and Fits at Five Eastern on the first Tuesday of every month, then Boggs and Fits on Five Eastern on the third Tuesday of each month. Come get your questions answered and be on the show. That's at Fantasypros.com slash chat to join our Fantasyprose Discord community. Fitz, who's your second running back here? Isaiah Pacheco, who fractured his fibula early last season. He was back two and a half months later,

but upon his return, he just was not the same guy. He couldn't take the lead running back job away from Kareem Hunt. And there's no way Pichaco was anything close to 100% after he came back from a broken leg in under three months. This is the guy who was being drafted in the mid to late second round last year, and now you can get him in the seventh or eighth. And in a backfield that includes Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, Bershard Smith, I still think Pacheco is probably the best running back the Chiefs have. And the Kansas City offense is going to be somewhere from good to great. Pacheco's two seasons removed from being a high-end RB2 and fantasy points per game,

and now you can draft him as a mid-range RB3. So for me, he's, I know about a giant boom, but he's a small boom for me. Yeah, I had Picheko so high last year. He was definitely inside, I think he was inside, like, my top six running backs going into season, which is, I'm like afraid to go back and look and see exactly where I had him. But I was really excited about him. Was it UFitz or somebody on a recent show that poised the question of if he hadn't come back at the end of the year, where would he be ranking him?

if he just he got hurt and he missed the year, but now it's been a year since he came back and we're all kind of assuming something closer. Like we hadn't seen him come back at not full strength. I forget who it wasn't mentioned on a show, but I thought it was a great point. Yeah, I did not pose that hypothetical question, but it's a really good one. He would be drafted much higher than he is now. Yeah. Jake, what do you think about Pacheco?

Yeah, I think that's the biggest concern is what is his health? As in his health post injury, like, is he the Pacheco we knew? Is he the Pacheco now? Is he looking in the fact that is he going to be anything in the passing game? And that's, I bring up Breschard Smith as a light, late round flyer in a lot of these shows, mostly because we've seen the Jerich McKinnon on this team. Top 20 value. Like, they're not only afraid to use the running back out of the backfield.

They will use the pass catching running back of that ilk when they have some talent to even run at the goal line. So is Pacheco going to get all that work on top of the Kareem Hunt situation? So I think the upside is if he gets 65% of the workload on the Chiefs, the rushing touchdown potential. obviously probably back inside the top 20. But the risk is this is a complete committee. And I don't mean time shares in two pieces. I mean committees and there's a third piece involved. And then it's, this is all hell breaks loose.

Last player here. Jake, who you got? Yeah, this one's interesting to me. I think that this risk needs to be baked into his cost more. And I don't even mean the potential trade for Breeshole. I just think Breeshole on the Jets is a risk in it of himself. Talk about it last year. They drafted two running backs with plenty of talent.

I thought Isaiah Davis was one of the bigger sleepers in last year's draft class. And this is somebody who just finished being RB18. You add Justin Fields. And if you look at Justin Fields, his best, and I put that in quote, best season and a half, season and two thirds with the Bears is, I'm not saying they're going to copy the Bears, but you look at the usage in the backfield. And you're hoping somebody gets touchdowns because some of that was split,

but I don't think they were going to see Brice Hall get 70% of this workload if he still is on the Jets and then on top of that, is he the goal line option or is it Braylin Allen? And then you look at that because Justin Fields is going to, if he plays a full season, he's going to run for 7, 8, 9 touchdowns. He's not as low as Lamar Jackson. He's not as high as Josh Allen in the rushing touchdown department.

He's right in that middle range. But those are touchdowns to potentially take away and what has seemed to seem to work next to Justin Fields has been kind of more of that thumper when they get to the goal line to offset Justin Fields. All that being said, Hall can be that guy. Breece Hall can be the clear lead and get 60% of the work.

But at RB 13, I have more as a back-end RB2 just because I think there's a lot of bust potential with this. And again, that's even before I bring up with the potential that he could get traded. And at a times there situation somewhere else that we've always started getting rumors about lately. This was one of the names on the short list. And we were putting together this outline. You guys were willing to provide the name, not me. But this is one of the first names that jumped to mind when I was thinking

about guys that we'd be talking about. Fitz, what are you doing with Hall this year? Fading. For all the reasons Jake said, plus a few more. One is that new head coach, Aaron Glenn, just keeps talking about wanting to have a committee. Like, he's just openly saying he wants to use all three of his backs. So like, why would we not believe him in that? Brees Hall just doesn't seem to have workhorse potential if Aaron Glenn can be taken at face value. The other thing, and Jake touched on this with, uh, Justin Fields, like related to the touchdown count. Like, Breece Hall, part of the value is his pass catching ability.

Like, he's really good at it. He's put up some great pass catching numbers. But we know that running quarterbacks tend not to throw to their backs as much as pocket quarterbacks do in Justin Fields' best season as a pass or 22 with the Bears. Bears receive – Bears running backs and full backs combined for 46 catches that year. like every running back and fullback on the team 46 catches so i don't see a 60 catch season in breese hall's future in 2025 breese hall or james cook this year fits i think i've got cook well no i've got hall one spot higher but i'm not totally sold on

that how about how about hall or kairn williams kairn kairn for both you okay so right right in that Kyrn's RB 11 and UCR. If you didn't see me smiling, by the way, it's because I was leaving like that little nugget at the end and Fitz kind of took it the highest targets for a running back when he was back there was 40 targets for a running back. So there again. That's wild.

All right. Well, go ahead and wrap up there. Thanks everybody for checking out this shorter video on our boom or bust running backs. For Jake and Fitz, I'm Ryan. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pro's Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us,

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