The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - Running Backs You Need to RUN FROM in 2025 (Ep. 1605)

Episode Date: July 6, 2025

Don't fall prey to sinking your draft capital into underperforming backfields! Join Ryan Wormeli, Jake Ciely and guest Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) of Fantasy Points for their top 11 fantasy football running backs to run from in 2025. Is the ceiling capped for Tennessee Titans RB Tony Pollard? Will the miles finally catch up to Houston Texans RB Joe Mixon? Plus, should managers be pulling the trigger on New York Jets RB Breece Hall on the round three-four turn?  The Pros fire up the getaway car! Timestamps: (May be off due to ads) Intro - 0:00:00FantasyPros ECR Rankings - 0:02:09Ashton Jeanty (RB - LV) - 0:02:19Josh Jacobs (RB - GB) - 0:05:16FantasyPros Cheat Sheet Creator - 0:09:21Joe Mixon (RB - HOU) - 0:09:45James Cook (RB - BUF) - 0:13:42DraftKings Pick6 - 0:16:44Tony Pollard (RB - TEN) - 0:17:58David Montgomery (RB - DET) - 0:21:20FantasyPros Draft Intel - 0:25:37Tyrone Tracy (RB - NYG) - 0:26:00D’Andre Swift (RB - CHI) - 0:29:09Javonte Williams (RB - DAL) - 0:33:13Breece Hall (RB - NYJ) & Kenneth Walker III (RB - SEA) - 0:38:47Outro - 0:45:26 Helpful Links: DraftKings Pick6 – Download the DraftKings Pick6 app NOW on Google Play or the App Store and use code FANTASYPROS. This offer is for new customers to play $5, get $50 in Pick6 credits. Only on DraftKings Pick6. The crown is yours.  Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org in Connecticut. Must be eighteen plus, age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction. Pick6 not available everywhere, including New York and Ontario. Void where prohibited. One per new customer. Bonus awarded as non-withdrawable Pick6 Credits that expire in thirty days. Limited time offer. See terms at https://pick6.draftkings.com/promos. Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator - Our Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator lets you complete a mock in minutes with no waiting between picks! Customize your league settings to match your league’s exact format. Premium subscribers can test trade scenarios by mocking with their traded draft picks. Prepare for rookie drafts AND dynasty startup drafts in one place! Use the Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator to dominate your rookie draft today at fantasypros.com/simulator! Discord - Join our FantasyPros Discord Community! Chat with other fans and get access to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Come get your questions answered and BE ON THE SHOW at fantasypros.com/chat Leave a Review – If you enjoy our show and find our insight to be valuable, we’d love to hear from you! Your reviews fuel our passion and help us tailor content specifically for YOU. Head to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts and leave an honest review. Let’s make this show the ultimate destination for fantasy football enthusiasts like us. Thank you for watching and for showing your support – https://fantasypros.com/review/ BettingPros Podcast – For advice on the best picks and props across both the NFL and college football each and every week, check out the BettingPros Podcast at bettingpros.com/podcast, our BettingPros YouTube channel at youtube.com/bettingpros, or wherever you listen to podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.

you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pro's football podcast. I'm Ryan warmly. joined today by Jake Seeley from the athletic and by Ryan Heath from Fantasy Points. Fellas, we are into July. It is July 2nd as of the day we are recording this. So we are just a month away from the height of draft season. But really it does feel like it ramps up right about now that July 4th is kind of the milestone for where things really kick into high gear. So it's a very exciting time of year. I'm really excited to be talking some running backs to run from on today's show with the two of you.

These are running backs that we will be avoiding. And we're going to throw in some at the end that maybe even though they're risky, have some red flags that we are still considering drafting as well. Jake, like I said, into July now. How are you doing, man? I'm doing good. I'm doing really good. It's July.

I have, what, two, three more weeks before the real hellstorm starts for all of us. But at least it's creeping in. We know that the people want it. I feel like every year gets a little bit earlier and earlier in the offseason that you see this war. them start coming. All the sites, we're all doing the same thing. It's like, well, they're already out.

Now we need to jump in front of them. Then we need to jump in front. By the time we turn around in two years, we're going to be releasing this kit on like April. Yeah, it gets earlier and earlier every year. Ryan, this is the first time we're doing a show together, man. Thanks for coming on. Yeah, yeah.

Thanks for having me so much. Very excited. Yeah, awesome to meet and work with both of you. This should be a really fun show. What do you have going on at fantasy points right now? Yeah, right now kind of just grinding through a bunch of offseason articles. I am writing about a bunch of different metrics that we have in the fantasy points data suite and like some different ways that those can get you an edge in your fantasy league. So

talking about like design targets, expected fantasy points, all sorts of good stuff. So yeah, you can check all that out, all my writing on fantasy points.com. Jake, any projects you're working on at the athletic? Actually, my breakout top seven wide receivers just came out today. And I actually use fantasy points to back up my opinion of Josh Downs and using his separation score and win rate percentage. I like to do the mix of both. And so, yeah, I was on the site yesterday. Thank you, Scott Barrett, for that. Nice. We love the synergy going on here already. A quick reminder for everybody that all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at Fantasypros.com slash rankings. You can go to all your different scoring formats from there.

We're going to got to go through some early round running backs first that we think are a little overvalued, then some mid-round guys, then we'll wrap with the players that we are considering still drafting, even with some of these red flags. Jake, let's start with you, your first overvalued running back that's going early. I figure, why not come out of the gate strong, right? Just get everybody to turn the show off. Like, screw it, not listen to the rest of it. But it's Ashton Genty, and that's, look, I couldn't have lauded Ashton Genty more than most everybody did coming to this draft. We know how good he is. But then I look at it, and it really comes to, I'm avoiding him where he's going, because if we're going by a consensus, he's RB4, and I'm just not going to take him

as RB4, not because I don't believe in Genty, not though I don't believe that the Raiders' offense can be better than it has been, especially with Gino Smith and everything they've done. I just don't believe in taking Gentie in front of Derek Henry and Josh Jacobs. And I know there's a Christian McCaffey argument out there, but I'll still take him, mostly because I know this team still has to face some of the toughest run defenses in the league. Twice they face the Chiefs. And I know this is all on paper. things can change by the time that they face each other.

And that happens every single year. But I just look at Gentie and I go back to Bijon Robinson, who we were all excited about. Bejong was going second, third, fourth, running back off the board because he's Bejan Robinson, just like Gentie is right now. And as a disappointment, Bejan Robinson was RB eight or nine. And that's where I have it, Genti, have him at eight because I think we have to bake in the risk that the Raiders offense is going to limit him a little bit. And if nothing more, it might not be the touches, he'll get 300 touches.

they might limit him on the touchdown upside. I just think he's a fine pick early in the second round. I'm just not taking him mid early first and then that's the fourth running back off the board. That's all it is. It's not that I hate him. I just hate where he's going. Ryan, what do you think about Gentia? He's RB4 right at the top of tier two in our expert consensus rankings.

Obviously, as a rookie, you know, everybody's super excited. But we haven't actually seen it yet. Do you agree with Jake that early second round is more where you're comfortable or do you see him as a first round player? I am kind of with Jake here. I'm glad that Jake picked him because Gentie was who I wanted to pick, kind of, but then I was too scared to write down his name essentially. But yeah, I mean, of the running backs going in the first round, Genty is the one I'm the least excited about. I would rather draft Christian McCaffrey. I would rather draft Devon A. Chan.

And yeah, it really is just because of the offense. I just don't see the touchdown upside. I am a Gino-Smith believer, but it would really have to be a much better offensive. than Vegas or anyone in the industry expects for Gentie to really post a truly league-winning RB1 season. Ryan, would you rather Gentie or Derek Henry? Because you mentioned A. Chan and McCaffrey, those guys are RB6 and RB7 in our expert consensus rankings.

Henry's RB5, so he's ahead of both of those guys as well. Between Gentie and Henry, who would you prefer? Yeah, I would take Henry as well. Okay. That is one that I hope people don't turn off because of it, but you know there will be some people who disagree with you there, Jake. Ryan, let's go to your first early overvalued running back. So my overvalued guy is someone that Jake actually just mentioned.

It's Josh Jacobs for me. I can't get on board with a top two or top three round ADP for Jacobs. And it's because I expect the Packers' offense to just look very different. So last year, they averaged a negative 4.5% pass rate over expectation. That just means that they were the third most run-heavy team in the league controlling for down and distance and game situation and game script and all of that, right? But that's not what we've seen out of Matt Lafleur's offenses historically. Over the past three seasons, they ranked 14th, 20th, and fifth-most pass-heavy by that same metric.

They just added Matthew Golden in round one. There's likely an intention here to get back at least to a more balanced attack. And even before Jordan Love's mid-season groin injury, he was averaging 35.8 pass-a-tall. per game. That was fourth most among quarterbacks. So just kind of this confluence of factors that happened last year with Love getting banged up and with the Packers kind of beating up on a lot of really bad teams in the second half of the year. It led to all of this awesome production for Jacobs, but I just don't expect the environment to be the same. This year, the Packers have a bottom 10 schedule by opponent Vegas win total. So again, they're probably not going to be coasting to wins like they were

last year. And Jacobs has been very game script sensitive over his career. He averages seven fewer points per game and half PPR formats in losses than he doesn't win since 2022. So I would just much rather have kind of any other second or third round running back than Jacobs at this point. I really agree with you on this one, Ryan. I think the point about Love's injury is just like very central to this argument.

And I would be very surprised. if they are as run heavy this year as they were last year, assuming love is healthy. I want to quickly ask you before I throw to Jake on Jacobs, do you think Jordan Love is then undervalued if you're expecting more passing? He's currently QB 17. I know this is a running back episode, but I'm curious, like, if you're lower on Jacobs, does that mean that you're higher on Love? Yeah, I'm a bit higher on Love than that.

It's hard for single quarterback leagues just because like the big upside QBs are really all that matter. But yeah, certainly in Superflex, I think Love is a great pick. And I think maybe the most actionable way to do this is Matthew Golden and Jaden Reed, if I'm correct and the Packers are throwing more. Both of those guys are really interesting values. Jake, how do you see this offense playing out? Is Josh Jacobs overvalued at RB9? I actually think he's probably pretty much right in value.

Obviously on the slim side of this one, because you guys are in agreement. But I would take him in the second round mostly because I actually don't disagree a lot with what Ryan said. It mostly comes down to if even if you go back to two years ago, go, we're still talking about over 330 carries between Jones and Dylan in that backfield. And if you just take Jones in the passing game that year, about 40 targets, which I don't expect Josh Jacobs to all of a sudden offset the rushing concerns with 70 targets. That's not going to happen. But I think the touchdown equity is still going to be valuable.

I do think that I actually have him for less touches or fewer touches to do it correctly, according to Game of Thrones, fewer touches in the run game. but I still think hovering around 310 to 320 receptions included is why I'm okay with Jacobs. I would agree if he was first round, early second, but I would take him neck and neck, like I said, right with Gentie because I believe in the touchdown. I think their touches could be similar. I think the touchdowns will be better for Jacobs, and maybe that's where it's a little bit different.

So I am willing to take him in the second round. My dad is an English teacher, so that line in Game of Thrones, a fewer is his favorite line in the show. I would have to imagine. By the way, I love Jake when you say. I agree with what Ryan said because I can pretend you're talking about me and not our guys. It actually works because I could agree with the Ryan's. Yeah, exactly.

I do want to remind everybody about our cheat sheet creator. If you're tired of draft day uncertainty, the cheat sheet creator is your personal guide to perfect league specific rankings. Visualize your path to victory as you add tiers and sync your league to craft custom rankings, ensuring every pick is strategic and tailored to your league settings. Sync your league and enter your draft with confidence using the cheat sheet creator, at fantasy pros.com slash sheet or on the fantasy football draft wizard app. All right, Jake, let's go to your next early overvalued running back.

Way overvalued, in my opinion. And this was before the signing to add even more concern in this backfield of Chubb. But we always say, like, we never own a player. And like, well, at some point, there's always going to be a breaking point where if he falls far enough that you'll draft said player, I have a feeling this is one that I actually will never own because I have Joe Mixon in the mid-20s. I cannot ignore the injury concern, the signing, and honestly, even if you look at the drafting situation of Woody Marks, I actually thought Woody Marks was a very nice handcuff initially

before the signing to say that, hey, if Joe Mixen isn't 100 percent similar skill set in some ways to Joe Mix, in some ways, not all. But I look at his backfield, I'm just like, man, this is about to be gross. And I think that you see that the Texans were not confident in what they had. They added marks. They know that Damien Pierce hasn't been the answer since his rookie season. but they went out and made the signing Nick Chubb and said like, hey, maybe Joe Mixon, we should be more concerned than we already were. I already had Joe Mixon outside the top 15 before the signing.

And like I said, now I have him down in the range of like a Pacheco. Like I'd rather just take Pacheco and hope he rebounds to his pre-injury performance than to gamble that Mixin is anything when he's been. And as much as we've enjoyed mixing and fantasy, I don't think you'll find a single person that would argue against saying he's been volume reliant. And so if the volume's not there, and it's not, you know, the worst case in the world to say, hey, he is volume reliant. But if he's not getting 300 touches and he's only getting 200, I mean, honestly, amid RB2 might be the best case scenario. Yeah, Jake, even aside from the more crowded backfield, like, I think we're hoping that

the Texans throw more, too. I mean, it became like a running gag last year that they started every drive on second and nine because they were just running for sometimes a loss, but usually like a yard or two at most to start every series. There's the Giants offense. They stole their playbook. Yeah. So I'm with you on this.

I could see myself having Joe Mixon in some leagues, but I'm going to feel terrible about it if I do. And I will not be aggressively going after. So mean. Far from it. Ryan, what do you think about mixing this year? Yeah, I agree with pretty much everything that Jake said. Another thing I would add is that this Texan's offensive line could once again be

easily the worst in the league. reports right now out of camp are that they're just rotating starters at all the positions. They don't they don't know where anybody's actually playing like that. That's just very, very bad vibes to me. So yeah, fully with Jake here, I also do not want mixing on any of my teams. Do you guys think that there will be more scoring opportunities? Like you're expecting a bounce back from the offense in general and we're just not certain that those scoring opportunities are going to go to Mixin, Ryan? Or are you hesitant about actually, seeing kind of a bounce back with a revamped offensive line and everything in Houston.

Yeah, I'm just hesitant kind of about everything in Houston. We have seen C.J. Stroud just take awful, awful sacks for his, and really a little bit in his rookie year, but also, especially in the sophomore season, every time that the defense runs a stunt, he just immediately gets sacked. The Texans line was the worst against stunts of any team last year. So yeah, I just think that at least in that respect, teams have kind of figured out the Texans a little bit. So yeah, I'm pretty worried about the entire offense.

Jake, where do you think this offense finishes this season and scoring? I would love to say middle of the pack, but I think another part of it is even if it gets to middle of the pack, something that the other Ryan, Ryan Heath was saying about the Packers is I think you could see them passing more. To your point is that I think they get back to a little bit more from. two years ago, which of course would affect Joe Mixen, even if we didn't have the chub and marks and health concerns. Ryan, who's your next early overvalued running back?

Yeah, my next guy's a little bit boring because it's a very like one dimensional argument and reason, but it's it's James Cook for me. I think he's overvalued still. And the reason for that is really just touchdown regression. So Cook converted 25% of his red zone carries into touchdowns last. year. That was easily the most in the NFL. It was more than all of the leagues, like best and most efficient goal line backs, better than Derek Henry, better than David Montgomery, like, just all insane touchdown efficiency that we saw from him on the ground. On top of that,

Josh Allen is always going to take around 30% of the red zone carries right off the top at the very least. At fantasy points, we have a metric called expected fantasy points per game. which will just kind of show you how valuable each touch is because it's different in the red zone near the goal line or what have you. But by that metric, Cook ranked as just the RB25 last year with only 12.6 expected fantasy points per game. Right now he's going as around the RB12, kind of as a fringe RB1.

That's how he scored last year, but I just don't think it's likely he does it again. And even worse, he kind of took a step back as a receiver, averaging just 2.4 targets per game. And that was because of Ty Johnson of all players, who's taking you off the field on third downs. So I just, it gives me really bad vibes. I don't like it at all.

Generally, to be like a truly league-winning running back, you need to average at least three and a half targets per game. It seems unlikely for Cook, at least if they continue to run their offense and their backfield the way they have. So, yeah, Cook is a fade for me right now. What do you think about this one, Jake? I know in addition to everything that Ryan has said, you know, Pat Fitzmore is here at Fantasy Bros.

He's also really high on Ray Davis. She just says like another person in this backfield. Do you think Cook is overvalued, Jake? I mean, he's slightly overvalued. It seems that at least somewhat of the community, the fantasy community, it realizes what Ryan says. And he's spot on with this. I mean, if you go to David Montgomery, who had, if you just talk about pure rushes to touchdown, and there's a 6.5% mark, which is extremely high.

James Cook was 7.7 of his rushes went for a touchdown. And then he gave you that conversion rate on top of it. I mean, these are numbers that we haven't seen since Lageret Blunt's year. Like this is just, it's not normal. This doesn't happen. And if you look at Lageret Blunt, completely different team also, but also a completely different running back. I just don't think this is going to continue.

And I think that's what you see is a lot of people don't expect this to continue. And if you take even six touchdowns, which isn't even a cutting in half, but if he takes six away, we're talking about an RB2, just because he only still ran the ball 207 times. So I'm with Ryan on this one. Disagreed on the first one, but completely on board within this one is I'd rather have James Cook further down the draft that can. The good news is, is because of where he's going. I'm usually taking a wire receiver here anyway. Nothing beats relaxing on a hot summer day and watching baseball.

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Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smygel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaders to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. All right, guys, let's move to sort of the middle round running. backs now. Jake's starting with you. Yeah, and I already got a couple questions so far this preseason. I'm like, why do you hate Tony Pollard? And I'll give you the easy answer of why I hate Tony Pollard is just because I hate, where's the ceiling? Like, we've just seen the best, actually the best of Tony Pollard to talk about the touchdown regression we were just talking about

with James Cook. The best year was when he ran for nine with the Cowboys and he's had six and six hovering in that 11 points per game range. And it's even with the questions of, okay, Spears is going to finally do something. And it's mostly still been Tony Pollard as the clear lead. And we still get best case scenario as a back end RB2. Like, where's the ceiling? Like even if there was nobody else in this backfield, the ceiling is still like, okay, cool, he's a mid-RB2.

And that's my issue with it is that he's going as a back end RB2. And I'd rather have him as an RB3 or the first running back off my bench. Maybe if, you know, if I had four wide receivers and a running back and he's my second RB, cool, I can get with that. But that's why I have him 33 is because that's where I'd want him. I would rather have Cam Scadaboo and Judkins as rookies. I'd rather have Brian Robinson as his situation with the commanders. There's just other running backs I would take because they're similar value as they stand

and they have higher ceilings. I think there's just no ceiling with Tony Pollard. Tony Pollard is RB 26 in our HACCPR rankings. So yeah, just a very high. high end, RB3 currently in the rankings. Ryan, does that sound too high, too low or just right to you? I think it sounds about right, honestly. I am fine with Pollard this season.

And to just directly answer Jake's question, I think the ceiling comes from just if Cam Ward is better than anybody thinks, would that be such a surprise that a first overall drafted quarterback is immediately way better than kind of the scouting industrial complex thought that we've seen that happen plenty of times. And if that's the case, then this is suddenly a good offense. I think the Titans are, it's a much more like volatile projection in terms of what their points per game output is going to be just because of the Cam Ward factor. And yeah, with Pollard, we saw him be a bell cow for pretty much the entirety of last year. He did put up big fantasy weeks in a handful of games that the

Titans were not totally out of. So yeah, I kind of like Pollard. probably a little bit more of like a best ball style pick because, yes, I don't see like the massive league winning season out of him like you might from a rookie, like an RJ Harvey, for example. But yeah, I think Pollard's totally fine where he's going. It's not that offensive to me. The interesting thing with Pollard is like I feel like when I say RB 26, that doesn't sound crazy in a vacuum.

But then I look at the few names going after him, at least in terms of ECR. And like RB 27 is Judkins, RB 28 is Pacheco, RB 29. is Caleb Johnson, R.B. 30, Brian Robbins, Jr. And I'm like, I kind of can see the case for all those guys ahead of him. So it's like, I don't, like, 26 doesn't sound terrible. But then I look at the names after him. And I just feel like maybe he should move down a bit. Not that I think you should be like in the, you know, mid to late 30s or anything drastic. But I do like a lot of those names that are going directly after him just a little bit better. So I can kind of see both sides of this case. Ryan, let's go to your next running back. Yeah. So my next guy is someone we've mentioned. It's David Montgomery. And even, aside from all the touchdown efficiency stuff that Jake brought up earlier, my kind of bigger concern is just can the Lions maintain as valuable of a backfield and as valuable of a rushing attack as they have had over the last two seasons?

Last year, their entire backfield was worth about 30 expected fantasy points per game, which is insane. That was by far the most. The bucks were second, I think, and they were down at like 25 or somewhere around there. but that giant backfield pie was actually split pretty much perfectly 50-50 in games that both Montgomery and Jamir Gibbs were healthy. So that kind of leaves us with two ways for Montgomery to just fall out of like the RB2 and flex tier. Either the lions can't maintain that valuable of a backfield with fewer TDs, maybe they have to pass more, lots of different ways that you can just imagine the offense regressing without Ben Johnson. Or alternatively, their new OC couldn't come in and just decide,

hey, I'm going to give a slightly larger snapshot to Jemir Gibbs, who we saw average over 165 yards from scrimmage per game. In the four games, they gave him like a 66% snapshot with Montgomery out. So either of those things happen, and all of a sudden Montgomery is not a handcuff that you can play in your flex. Now he's just an extremely expensive handker. that is not really providing much value week to week without a Jemir Gibbs injury. And that's true of basically every other much cheaper true handcuff running back,

like your Zach Charbonnetes, your Isaac Arendos, or whatever your preferred flavor is there. So, yeah, with the upside case for Montgomery just being the Gibbs injury, I just can't justify drafting him as anything close to an RB2. Jake, where do you have Montgomery ranked? He's RB 21 in ECR and half. PPR. I have a 26. I'm with Ryan on this one. A lot of things he said as I've echoed on these shows past couple weeks is that we're just assuming everything's going to be fine, as in the ranks are showing that we're assuming everything's going to be fine. And it's just going to be copy paste

for the Lions. And I even mentioned in my breakout column, I brought up James and Williams, and it was like part of the case against him would be that John Morton comes in and does go that route or does change the offense just a little bit. They even said early on golf has been mentioned as saying is like there's going to be slight differences that you'll see. Well, if we're seeing it, it might be bigger than he's letting on in the fact of like it's slight to him, but it's bigger in the overall scheme of things. And just, you know, the Ragnall thing is impressive because it's still as good as he was as a blocker playing through the injury.

A torn pack playing through that last year. Like, that's a loss that we have to factor in. There's just a lot of issues where it's just, it's risky to say everything's just going to be the same that we've seen for the past three years. And if you go back to Morton, like, you know, coming from. from a system that in the last two years at least has been the Sean Payton. But if you go to the last time he was the offensive coroner way, way, way back with the Jets, and here's a name to throw out for everybody.

He leaned on Belal Powell a lot. And that was with Matt Forte's corpse in that backfield. But I say that to say, this is why I echo Ryan, is because even Ballal Powell, he like kind of leaned on. He wasn't a true bell cow, but to Ryan's point, what if Morton's style is to say, I had this amazing running back in Gibbs, I'm going to give him 10% more, which. isn't a lot, but it's enough to say, oh, my gosh, David Montgomery is going from scoring 12, 13 on the ground to 9 and only 150 touches. And that's just, that's going to make them

an RB3. Similar question, Jake, to what we talked about with Houston. The offensive environment overall, if you had to put a number to it with the offensive coordinator change, where do you think the Lions end up this year in scoring? I would almost guarantee money still top 10. The question is whether or not it's top five. But that top five, top 10 is the difference of whether or not we care about David Montgomery as RRB2. Ryan, do you see them as more top five or top 10? Oh, yeah, I got a pick now. Yeah, I'm going to go outside the top five will be my prediction.

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another mid-round running back you are avoiding. So this is a lot of kind of opinion on this one. It's Tyrone Tracy and the fact that I do believe that Scataboo can come in and be and likely be the lead, mostly because, and I just did a show recently with Joe on Fantasy Pros on here. And I said, I think some of us in fantasy like the world, I'm talking to everybody, analyst, players. It's just like we get enamored with, oh my gosh, he came from nowhere. I put that on quotes. Like he came unexpected. I found this guy and like good all the talent. He even surprised the NFL. And then it's like you don't want to let go. And like sometimes, in my opinion, Tyrone Tracy is a great complimentary running back. I was somebody who was on Tracy last year, mostly because I wasn't

a big fit in Devon Singletary and the rest and Gray and all the other running backs. But I think that while he took everybody by, well, not everybody, but took a lot of people by surprise. He's still a limited running back. And one of the limits that the concern is even part of his game is Brian Dable benched him to go back to Singletary because he was fumbling the ball. And I'm not say that's something that can't be corrected. And you just keep a guy off the field because he fumbles. We yelled at years of Belichick doing that. Like just give the best guy the ball. Adrian Peterson fumbled. We know that. But I'm saying all this to present is that I think Scataboo versus Tracy, if I'm taking talent versus talent, I would take Scataboo over Tracy. And I think part of Scataboo's game that it's underrated is his past catching ability, which is really where the game of Tracy comes from because of his explosiveness. So I see this as more of like a 60-40 split, which means where Tracy is going and drafts is overdrafted. I would happily still take Tracy further down just where he's going. I think he's still being treated as the 55-45 lead split of that backfield. And I think it's actually going to be, he's going to be on the back half of it. Ryan, what do you think this backfield

looks like. So I'm like fairly, I would say I don't have an opinion super locked in on how this backfield looks like, but I do have like a way I like to approach these ambiguous backfields. And that's that I don't really care which running back ends up on which side of the 55, 45, 45 split. I only care about can this running back make it a 70% opportunity share, right? Especially on a team like the Giants where that that has to be the case for there to really be any fantasy value. There has to be a bell cow. Yeah, I try not to get caught up so much

in what's the likelihood of being at a 55% versus a 45%. In this particular case, I will slightly prefer Scataboo for the reason that Jake said, because I feel more confident in his past catching abilities. But honestly, this backfield is just not that big of a target for me in general. and I don't feel like particularly strongly about it. That's part of the factor too. Honestly. Yeah, but just to let everybody know the rankings, Tyron Tracy Jr. is 31st amongst our running backs in ECR and it's got to who's 40th

amongst running backs in ECR. So, you know, a nine back gap there between the two. Ryan, let's go to the last mid round running back. Yeah. So my last mid round guy is D'Andre Swift. And it's for several. reasons, but kind of going through some of them. Over his career, Swift has primarily been a man-gap rusher, right? In his last season under Ben Johnson, he mostly ran a very man-gap-heavy scheme.

But very notably, in that year, Swift averaged a career low 7.1 rush attempts per game. And then, I think very revealingly, as soon as the Lions shipped Swift off, Johnson moved to a lot more outside zone and obviously had a lot of success over the last two years doing that with Jamir Gibbs and David Montgomery. So if that is Johnson's kind of preferred scheme that he wants to run, Swift doesn't fit it at all. He averages 3.2 career yards per carry on outside zone. And kind of similarly to a lot of the running backs we've talked about, I just don't really

see the upside with Swift. Even if you think, wow, the bears are going to be a. much better offense this year. We just saw DeAndre Swift in a leadback role on a better offense. It was with the Eagles in 2023. He finished with just 12 and a half fantasy points per game. I don't see the league winning upside out of DeAndre Swift at all. I would much rather be taking shots on guys like Isaiah Pacheco, who we have seen,

at least for some games, be a Belkow on a confirmed good offense. even Tony Pollard just because I can also see a path to that offense being good. Steelers running backs, taking shots on that ambiguous situation. There are just other places I would rather be sending my bullets than Dandre Swift this year. RB 22 in ECR, Jake, is that too high, too low or just right? Yeah, I'm not crazy off from what Ryan said. This is similar to what he was saying about my guy earlier. I'm actually okay with Swift, but I'm okay with Swift.

and knowing what you're getting. Like I think honestly, you could be like, hey, Jake, you're playing both sides of the fence here because similar to Pollard before, I do think he has a limited ceiling. Like that I could be like the why would you take Swift? It's mostly moral. So I'm not a big Roshan Johnson fan.

And maybe I'm wrong in this. Or maybe I'm ignoring the connection that Andrew Erickson keeps bringing up on this shows and saying, Biennami, draft a Pacheco at Rutgers, and he's with the Bears now. And my non guy is from Rutgers. And now we're down this rabbit hole.

of like connecting all the dots. But all that being said, well, I think Menongai is a fine late round flyer and this could be a full-blown committee or Ben Johnson could just say like, hey, you're done, Swift. And I am going to turn to Johnson or Monong guy. And now you're this, now you are the Tyrone Tracy that I just brought up. I just feel like he's a decent 230 touch guy. Like I don't think he's going to be a bellic guy. I don't think he's going to be a league winner, as Ryan said.

Completely agree with all those. I just, I'm kind of okay where he is because where he is, I feel like, He's a cool RB2. And in this range, usually that's an RB2 with three or four wide receivers already on my team. So it kind of, like I said, it kind of almost sounds like I'm playing both sides with the Pollard Swift thing. But I'm just a little bit more okay with Swift. I think for me, it's the difference between ranking and drafting. Like, I think this is the right ranking for him.

But I don't think I'm going to be targeting him at this ranking. I mean, just like looking in last five years is finished amongst running backs, 18. 19, 22, 22, you can easily paint that picture that that's the right, you know, number for him to be near. But I don't want him at this range. There are going to be other players that I'd rather have or I'd rather wait. And a lot of those names that you mentioned, Ryan, that, you know, you'd rather, you know, Steelers backfield, you know, some of the upside plays elsewhere that are going later than

him, I would just rather wait and target a guy there. So I think it's worth mention that there is a difference between how you rank a guy sometimes and how you kind of philosophically approach your draft day strategy. And that's good to keep in mind. Let's go to one risky running back from each of you that you are still tempted to draft, that even despite the red flags, you recognize that there is a risk here that you are still interested in. You guys actually both, you made one pick each, but you both mentioned second names that you were considering too. So feel free to mention both if you'd like, but also who the one guy is that if you had to pick one,

you are tempted to draft. Jake, you can go first. Yeah, I think with me, I'm willing to gamble on Giovante Williams. and that's from somebody that's like, go ahead and get Jade on Blue. Like, I like Blue, and I think a lot of people do. But the truth is, is, you know, they took the chance. It wasn't a big contract. They let Rico Dowdle walk for almost the exact same contract and then brought in

Giovante Williams, that being the Cowboys. But, you know, we all sit here in whether you're watching film or watching the games or looking at the analysts and looking at the metrics or whatever it might be. We've all seen that Javonte Williams is not the same running back since he got hurt. But what if it's the extra year removed? he wouldn't be the first running back that needed that extra year sometimes and that's oh my gosh he's finally back and the thing is he's not going as an rb too he's not even going where he was last year he's going somewhere where he's going to be on your bench when you're done drafting like you're

not drafting him to start rb mid 30s okay what's the if javanti williams is 90% of what he used to be and he gets 250 240 touches in his backfield he's not going to be a league winner but it'll be somebody that you can slide into your RB2 spots more more often than not and jaden blue wouldn't be the first vali hood you know rookie to like not win the job and just never get out there like i mean was the dude the raiders guy last year that everybody wanted to draft and end up being a non-factor i'm trying to think of his name right now but there's just there's there's situations where like sometimes the veteran has a chance if he could just show anything so i will take a chance on givante williams in the mid-30s um the other

the one I did mention, and the only reason I didn't mention him is because I think I've mentioned them on every show with you worm is Alvin Camara. Like, I know everybody wants to fade the Saints offense because it's going to be worse than the league, but Alvin Camara is still going to get 250 touches and almost what, a third of them are going to be in the passing game. So I'm still going to take Alvin Cameras the top 15 running back. But I think this is the first time I've spoken positively about Javante Williams this entire offseason. I didn't want to interrupt you. Is Zemir White, the Raiders running back? You were thinking of it? No, it was the other one. It's the little small dude.

Abdullah? No. I'm going to pull it up. It was just drafted last year. Oh, was it Dylan LaVey? Thank you. Everybody wanted Lobby at the end of rounds last year. He's going to take over because they have nobody else. And like that's kind of how it.

I like Blue significantly more than LaVey, but I'm just saying like these scenarios happen. Yeah. I'm with you on Giovante. I've been talking about him actually for a couple episodes now. Like, again, not that I think he's some league winner who's going to finish as an RB1, but if he stays healthy this season, there's just no way that he's not giving you value compared to RB 36 off the draw.

I mean, he's barely an RB3 in the rankings right now. There is just, I don't believe in anybody else in this backfield is going to get in his way. And this is not even saying that I think he's going to be back to his pre-injury self. He doesn't need to be in order to give you really good value, I think, on this year. down by Giovante, our backups needing something to happen. Jivante could legitimately, doesn't need anything else to happen, be the lead running back from day one. And that's the one different.

Again, if he gets up to R.B. 26, you're never going to touch my team. But at 36, there is worth the gamble. And I think this is going to be a good offense, too. Like, I think there are going to be touchdowns available to score. I think this is the comparison that Erickson has made with Javante this year is like J.K. Dobbins last year. a guy with an injury history, but there's nobody else in the backfield. If you think the offense is good enough, that he's just going so late that you can't pass it up. And that's really, again, I'm not calling him a league winner.

Like, I'm with you, Jake. I'm not saying there's some insane upside. And if he was going higher, I wouldn't be interested. But at this cost, like the opportunity is what it is. Javonte Williams, Ryan, what do you think about him? To me, I just don't see that big of a difference between Javante Williams and like Miles Sanders, which is kind of my whole issue with him. that with the Cowboys backfield,

and this has been my take on the Cowboys backfield for the last two seasons, it's not a backfield that I believe is very likely to create fantasy value, to the point that you're starting anybody in it in like a normal lineup. The only way it happened last year was Dak getting hurt and the team saying,

okay, we're just going to pack it in and run the ball a ton, even if we're way down. And also, Zik had to say, skip a meeting or whatever it was for him to get for him to get benched and for doubtle to really take over as a bell cow so yeah and then your reward is like a low end rb too so yeah i i just am not i can't be on giovante i can't do it are you then drafting at rb 67 are you taking sanders if you don't see a big difference but there's a you know 30 spot gap in the rind yeah that it may be yeah i'll say in best ball i i'll say in best ball i

I've been dabbling in final round, Miles Sanders. I think that that has been like a better best ball pick than Javante Williams many rounds earlier. But yeah, I'm just mostly not in on this backfield at all. What risky running back are you tempted to draft Ryan? Yeah, so going a little further up the board, I think the guy that best fits this description this year is Breece Hall. So obviously everything that happened with Hall last year happened, massively disappointed at a top 3 ADP. But zooming out a little bit, over his first two seasons in the league,

Hall averaged 22 fantasy points per game when he was above a 50% snapshot. And that's mostly just removing injured games in some like early in 2023 when he was playing a part-time role coming back from that ACL tear. Over his entire career, Hall averages 4.8 targets per game. That is fourth best among active players over that. span behind only Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Camara, and Austin Echler. Hall ranked second in yards per out run among that same group. And I mean, you'll notice Christian McCaffrey, Camara, Echler, all of these players have

been perennial league winners. They have combined for 12 league winning season since 2017 as measured by ESPN playoff rate. Hall now is going kind of around pick 40, like late 30s, early 40s in most sites. He has smashed that exact ADP in both 2022 and 2023. As for why it's risky and why it's very tough for me, but ultimately I'm doing it. I think that Hall was playing injured through even more of last year than we probably recognize, right? He had a mysterious lower half injury. That was the only descriptor we got of it at any

point last summer in late May, early June. None of the details were ever disclosed. And I think that might be why all of his GPS numbers were down early in the year and why we saw the Jets kind of randomly from week to week go back and forth between giving Hall like an 80% workload down to like 55%. And the situation is just better this year. There's no Devante Adams anymore. Hall was still up at five and a half targets per game last year before Adams joined the team.

The only real concern is everything Aaron Glenn has said this entire offseason about wanting to use all three running backs. But to me, it reads more as hyperbole. Glenn has said stuff like there aren't three other running backs in this league that have the potential of Breast Hall, Braylin Allen, and Isaiah Davis. Like, to me, this is kind of Dan Campbell-esque in that he will just relentlessly talk up all the players on his roster. He's not actually projecting their usage or their workloads.

But when we look at what the actual offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand has said, we know that he's told Hall that he has to be ready to do everything and to play on all three downs. So ultimately, all you need for this pick to massively pay off and potentially become a league winner is for Aaron Glenn to be lying and for Hall to stay healthy. That's all it takes is it sounds so easy. So yeah, that's why I'm in on Hall. The other guy that I'm in on is Ken Walker. I think he's a little risky for the same reason, just injury history. But I care about that a lot less than probably the average fantasy analyst. We have just seen that the Seahawks are now committed to using Walker as a three-down weapon.

Mike McDonald has called him that at multiple points over the last two years. Second and total miss tackles force behind only Derek Henry. You get the Clint Cuviac outside zone scheme. We've also seen Cuviac funnel targets to running backs in the past. I just love Ken Walker in general as a bet. I think he's a little less risky than Hall. Tier three in the expert consensus rankings, Ryan, is Kyron Williams, Chase Brown, Bruce Hall, James Cook, Kenneth Walker.

So we've already established that you are kind of fading cook there. How would you compare Hall and Walker to Kyron and Chase Brown? Do you like them better than those guys? Or are you comfortable with where they're ranked? You're just also targeting them. I'm comfortable, honestly, with where all four of those guys are ranked. If I had to rank them straight up, it would be Chase Brown, Walker, Hall, Kyron. But I'm totally fine with where all of them are generally going.

Jake, what do you think about both Bruce Hall and Kenneth Walker? Yeah, well, if people have tuned into the previous shows, they'd know that I'm apparently the Kenneth Walker hater. So just established that, that I'd be more in on Hall. You know, everything that Ryan said completely agree with. And the thing is, if Hall was going earlier than he was and actually where he was going about two or three months ago, I was more off on Hall initially than to the value where he's at now, which I think is a fine price. mostly the concerns, and Ryan pretty much touched on them. Like, I do have some concerns.

If you look at the Justin Fields offense from past years, and I know completely different teams and completely different schemes, but getting to that goal line, you kind of offset Justin Fields at the goal line with the bigger power. And it's not that Breece Hull doesn't have his own power. Like, Breeze Holt is a terrific three-down running back. It's just what if there is some truth to this? And what if Braylon Allen is the discount David Montgomery to this?

team and you're looking at the situation with Breece Hall turns into Jimmer Gibbs and it's the Jets versus the lines and we don't like the offense as much as the two and that's just my concern. My concern is that the touchdown equity takes a hit if they really do lean on Brayland Allen as the power option, which is something that he excels at. And again, not that Breece Hall can't. And then you have the chicken and the egg argument. Like you have the Justin Fields doesn't throw to his running backs a lot.

Well, was that a microcosm of what he was dealing with at running back? or is that just how Justin Fields plays his offense? So all those concerns, I'm saying, is why Breece Hall's not going as an RB1? And that mysterious injury, I love that you bring that up to because late in the year we also got, it might be the knee that he had the ACL surgery on. And like, that just terrified me, but that was last year at the end of the year. But if that somehow carried over, all that I'm saying is to say, even with all those concerns, where he's going, I'm okay. If he starts to get positive news and creeps back up and gets close to top 10 like he was two or three months ago, I'm probably out at that point. But where he is now as kind of like what is the RB 13, 14, I'm totally okay with that.

We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Those are all of our running backs to run from, plus a couple that we are considering drafting there at the end. Thank you to both Ryan and Jake for joining us today. And thanks to everybody for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show,

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