The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 10 (Ep. 1829)

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

Starting point is 00:00:12 We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

Starting point is 00:00:26 Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined as I am every Friday by Derek Brown and Pat Fitzmores. We are talking our week 10 key questions. I've been saying it all week. We are into the double digits. We are trying to answer some key questions before this week to help everybody really make a playoff push. You got like, you know, four-ish weeks, five-ish weeks, depending on the league you're in before you got to lock up that playoff spot. So we're going to do our best that we can to help you all this week and every week.

Starting point is 00:01:05 Quick reminder, all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasyprose.com slash rankings. Also a reminder for everybody, we've been talking about it all week. The teams on by, the Bengals, the Cowboys, the Chiefs, and the Titans, lots of good players, lots of bad defenses that we like going against. So we're going to make for a slightly tougher week than usual, even with just in air quotes, four teams on by. It's still a lot, but not quite safe.

Starting point is 00:01:29 So a lot of good teams there. Again, that's Cincinnati, Dallas, Kansas City, and Tennessee fits. Let's start off right at the very top. And we have another, I was going to say, London game. It's a Europe game. It's in Germany and Berlin this week. Falcons Colts, I thought, you know, not I thought. I hoped we were done with these super early games.

Starting point is 00:01:49 We've got one more on the slate this season. A couple good teams, though, at least a couple interesting teams for fantasy. I want to talk about the two best players on these teams, though. Jonathan Taylor and Vijon Robinson. We had a question about them last week, or two weeks ago, rather. And we are sitting here with them coming off of a couple of bad games. Again, now Bija, I made up for it a bit in the passing game, but they rushed for 45 and 46 yards, respectively, in week nine. So if it's starting with you between Taylor and Robinson, two of the three best running backs and fantasy,

Starting point is 00:02:18 who is the better chance of bouncing back this week? I think it's Taylor for three reasons. One, the Colts are favored by six and a half points on hard rock bets. So Taylor and the Colts are more likely to have a run-friendly game script. Two, Taylor is the better matchup. Falcons are giving up 100.5 rushing yards per game to running backs. The Colts are only giving up 70.1 rushing yards per game to running backs. Three, Taylor gets greater rushing volume than Bijan.

Starting point is 00:02:45 He's averaging 17.4 carries a game. Bejan is only at 14.8 carries a game, mostly because the Falcons have a second back they like. Tyler Aljira is 63 carries this year. Colts running backs other than John. Jonathan Taylor collectively have 31 carries. Debrough, what do you think? Because Taylor might have more of the rushing equity, of course, but Bejohn is getting the work in the passing game to kind of close that gap of it.

Starting point is 00:03:08 Who do you think bounces back this week more so? Yeah, I'm going to agree with Fitsy and just more on the matchup. I mean, the Atlanta Falcons run defense since week five. I mean, outside of rushing yards, they have the seventh lowest stuff rate and they're allowing the 11th highest yards up to contact per attempt. Like, if you juxtapose that with the Colts rushing defense and the same stats, They have the eighth highest stuff rate, and they've allowed the ninth lowest yards of contact per attempt.

Starting point is 00:03:32 So, yeah, I think this is easily JT. Okay. I didn't have a lot in this game just because a lot of the guys, especially on Atlanta, are, you know, very easy start-sit decisions for the most part. The Colts, to some degree, the one guy that I do want to follow up on, I didn't put this in the sheet, but I know you will be prepared to talk about this D-Row because you've been talking about it all week is Alec Pierce. And it's something that has become real real conversation in the last few weeks on, you know,

Starting point is 00:03:56 the type of defense that he's playing. And this is a particularly good matchup for him. So you just want to kind of wrap up this game by talking a bit about Pierce? Yeah, man. I mean, look, I've been talking about it for the last few weeks. It's Alec Pierce feeding families versus single high coverage. And he's going to do it again this week, man. Like Atlanta runs top three rate of single high.

Starting point is 00:04:16 And Alex Pierce has put up elite wide receiver one numbers. And I want to be very specific when I talk about this. He has put up elite per route wide receiver one numbers. against single high coverage. Like this guy versus single high has a 27% target share, 3.69 yards per route run and a 32% first read share. Those are Jamar Chase level numbers on a per route basis versus single high, just to fully like lay out the context for people here.

Starting point is 00:04:48 Like Pierce has just generally been really good this year. He's averaging like over 70 yards a game. And he is averaging, I think, over his last three games over 90 yards a game. Yep. So he's just like, yes, single high, expect him to smash. But in other matchups too, like I think Alec Pierce is starting to build more of a floor than we're used to with that.

Starting point is 00:05:11 Fancy, I got a real quick question here. Because he has finished as a top 24 wide receiver and two of the last three games. He's a guy I'm struggling with like, where do you rank him this week? Like how high is too high for Alex Pierce? Because all the teams on by, a lot of really, really good. We're thin at wide receiver this week. And I'm like, I keep nudging him up the ranks, man. And I'm like, is it like, Alex Pierce versus Ted Rowan McMillan is a real conversation. Like, is it too high to push him up that high in the top 24? I've got him wide receiver 28.

Starting point is 00:05:42 Okay. I'm a consensus. I'm with you. So, hey, the guy's ahead of him. You could make a case, um, that he like right now I've got him right behind Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison. I wouldn't have an issue with moving either of those guys passed or behind Pierce. Like, I mean, Alec Pierce versus D.K. Metcalf is a real conversation too. People may not be ready to have that, but for this week it is. Just to provide some context, he's not ranked in that range in consensus. He's in the mid-30s. He's at wide receiver 34.

Starting point is 00:06:14 That is, these have a couple of the guys that played on Thursday night in there. So really, it's more like Roger Severeux of the guys remaining. But he's not up in that conversation. with guys like Tedaroa McMillan and D.K. Metcalf in terms of how the consensus has it ranked, that's in half PPR scoring. So you guys are definitely ahead of consensus on that. And by the way, I very intentionally did not ask you anything about the game last night. I could not have less than talking about. I had to hold my eyeballs in my sockets because they wanted to jump out of my skull and leave the room.

Starting point is 00:06:49 Oh, man. It was just a nasty game. And I think this more goes back to the volatility of I said this a few weeks ago, Bo Nix has regressed so much from his rookie season. Like it is, he's not only just matchup sensitive, like the volatility. And I said this out on social media a few weeks ago. And then he goes out and has like,

Starting point is 00:07:06 like goes ham in a fourth quarter. And people are like, oh, really? Oh, you think that? And I'm like, yeah, I think that. Like, fine. He had like the amazing quarter. And it's like,

Starting point is 00:07:15 have you looked at the rest of his season? Like, he's been a roller coaster, man. It made me think of it. And I actually tweeted this before to the fantasy pros account like years ago. People got mad that it was an inappropriate meme so I didn't do it again. But it made me think of the meme with Jeffrey Dahmer where he's like,

Starting point is 00:07:31 we're going to hang out and he's like pointed to TV. We're going to watch this and then you can leave. And I'm like, I feel like I'm being forced to watch this game when I don't want to against my will. It just was like I mean, it's one of those games. It's like Colts Broncos from a couple years ago where it's like you will remember this game

Starting point is 00:07:47 for how bad it was. So I've started a tradition trying to just keep myself sane, and energetic and a lot of Thursday nights, like part of the game, I'm going to the gym. There's a lot of Thursday nights where I'm like, man, I really don't want to go. I want to watch the game. Didn't feel like that last night. Didn't, didn't feel like that at all.

Starting point is 00:08:06 It didn't feel like I missed anything. Well, let's go to a game that has the chance to be pretty ugly also. Saints at Panthers. Teddiro McMillan has been under 50 yards receiving in three of his last four weeks, and he still has only scored a touchdown in one game this season. He, of course, has two. They both came in the same game. So every other game he has zero.

Starting point is 00:08:23 ECR still has him just outside the top 20 among receivers for the week, though. He's currently at wide receiver 21. And I guess, again, if you take out, you know, Sutton, who was already played and was ahead of him, then he'd be wide receiver 20 of the guys remaining. So we all love the player, but at what point is he no longer a borderline must-start fantasy wide receiver? Because I feel like we kind of got him to that point relatively early in the year, assuming the touchdowns were going to come and that the volume was going to stay what it was. And now the yardage hasn't really been there.

Starting point is 00:08:52 and the touchdowns haven't come either. So again, we still love the player, but Debra, I'll start with you. At what point is you no longer a borderline must start fantasy wide receiver? We're already there, man. I mean, I've got him right now as wide receiver 27, and he's been wide receiver 35 in fantasy points per game. And Tet is doing everything that he can in his power, given the constraints of the quarterback play and the passing volume that is being allotted to him.

Starting point is 00:09:18 There's nothing else he can do about it, but this Carolina Panthers offense is just strutely. strangling the life out of him. I mean, whether it's a volume conversation, whether it's crappy quarterback play, whether it's a combination and honestly both weekly, it's tough for Tet. And that's why I wrote it up in the primer. Like, you're looking for blurbs on Liget and Coker. You ain't going to find them because they're not playable, man. Carolina has been so stinking run heavy that the passing volume, like Ted is the only option in the passing game that's even remotely playable.

Starting point is 00:09:49 Like since week six, Carolina's had the second highest neutral rushing rate and overall rushing rate. So pick your poison here. Whether you want to talk about bad quarterback play, what do you want to talk about no passing volume? And that, I mean, you got to run routes.

Starting point is 00:10:03 You got to get targets to score fantasy points. And Tets not able to do either one of those things, unfortunately. He's only finished higher than wide receiver 27 in a week twice fits. Those were two of the last four games. But even then, the ceiling has been wider shooter 12 and 14. Like it hasn't been inside the top 10 or anything. Again, I know you like the player, but what do you do with him both this week and just

Starting point is 00:10:28 kind of your general thoughts on Tet moving forward? Well, generally the whole must start thing depends on league context. In a 14 or 16 team league or in a 12 team league where you start three receivers and two flexes, Tederoa McMillan is most likely a must start. But in a 10 team league or a 12 team league where you only have to start two receivers, receivers? Probably not. And the issue is really that Panthers head coach Dave Canellas is trying to hide his quarterback right now. And with good reason, Bryce Young is averaging 5.7 yards per pass attempt, which is just like that's a terrible number. Cam Ward is at 6.0 yards per pass attempt.

Starting point is 00:11:07 And I don't think anyone is saying Cam Ward is having a good rookie year. So in his last four starts, Bryce Young has averaged 25 pass attempts. That is not a lot. And guess what? The Panthers have won all four of those games. Like, they just beat the Packers in Green Bay and Bryce Young had 102 yards and 11 completions. Dave Canales is just leaning into the running game. And Rico Dowdell has been a force of nature. Now Chuba Hubbard gives the Panthers, you know, one of the best number two running backs in the league. So Panthers are dead last in the league and pass rate over expected at minus 7.6%.

Starting point is 00:11:45 They're ultra run heavy. I thought Tederoa McMillan played a really good game against the Packers last week. Like Bryce Young threw to him in some third and long situations, and McMillan made a couple of really tough catches and tight coverage to pick up first downs. But it wasn't a good game for fantasy. Four catches for 46 yards. And yet that was nearly half of Carolina's receiving yardage. So in a better situation, we might be ranking Tederoa and McMillan is like a low-end wide receiver one,

Starting point is 00:12:13 high-end wide receiver two. I've got him ranked wide receiver 22 this week. a good matchup with four teams on buy. To all this point, I want to wrap a bow on this worm. Go out and trade for him in Dynasty. Go out and get him because the better days are ahead, dude. Better days. I don't see a way where Carolina walks into 2026 with Bryce Young as a quarterback.

Starting point is 00:12:32 Can't see it. It's funny that you say that because I was going to follow up and ask, not in Dynasty, but I was going to say, would you want to trade him away in redraft right now? I mean, he still has a buy week coming up, so that's going to be a zero. You're going to take later. Week 17, if you make it to the championship, he has the C. The Hawks, who I think are the best defense in football. Like, it's not like it's an easy schedule going forward.

Starting point is 00:12:53 And we have all these question marks for this year. So trade for him in Dynasty, Dibra. But would you trade him away and redraft? I think it just comes down to what are you going to get for him. And I don't know if anybody's giving you more than a bag of peanuts for Ted Romino. And it's not a case like Fitsy and I've laid out here has nothing to do with his talent. His per route metrics are freaking fantastic. He's doing everything he can.

Starting point is 00:13:12 But the fact that there's just not enough volume in this passing attack and the quarterback I play has sucked. So I don't think you're going to get a ton for him. Now, if you were going to trade him away and lump him with another wide receiver running back and tear up the position, then yeah, if you could do that, sure, go at it. You might not get a ton. I think you get more than a bag of peanuts, though. I mean, he's still a rest of season rankings, wider receiver 23, names like T.

Starting point is 00:13:35 Higgins, D.K. Metcalfe, Devonti Smith, Marvin Harrison, Harrison, Jr. Like, you can quibble whether or not that's a worthwhile ranking, but I think people look at that and say, like, they would give up something, even if it's not, like, a ton of value fits. Yeah, I'm trying to think of what maybe commensurate running back value would be for him. And I can't imagine it's much more than like a Jordan Mason. Yeah. Who's now part of a committee or Woody Marks type.

Starting point is 00:14:03 Maybe a little better than that. But like, you're not even getting Jalen Warren for Teddira Macmillan. You're not getting, um, you couldn't even get, not to jump ahead of the next one, but like, I don't even think you could get. could you get Kyle Monongai right now for Tedroo McMillan? I don't even know if you can do that. I actually think you could because I think there are people who are just going to say, oh, well, once Swift is back, he's going to go back into a timeshare or not be very started.

Starting point is 00:14:28 Again, I'm not saying that's correct or not, but I think there are people out there who would have that mindset. Probably. Maybe. Well, let's get into that next game. It's Giants at Bears. We're not talking about Monongai specifically, although he was, it was funny. I filled in on the StartSit live stream yesterday with Erickson. and I can't tell you how many Menungai questions we got.

Starting point is 00:14:49 It was like literally every question had Menongai included in it. And I kept saying like, I mean, if Swift wasn't playing, he'd do the most obvious start ever gets a little trickier with that. But the question I want to talk about here is actually about Caleb Williams. This stat comes from somebody named Direct Brown. I'm not sure if I'm pronouncing that correctly. I don't know where he works. He's at Debrough underscore FFB, whoever that is on Twitter slash X.

Starting point is 00:15:15 But this stat that I saw, which we've kind of talked about a bit on the show before, but it's kind of fun to see put into, you know, a simple term. There have been eight games for Caleb Williams this season. Four times he has been QB10 or better, four times he's been QB 20 or worse. He has not finished in the teens this season. He has either had a great QB one week or he has been totally unplayable, barring like a super deep, you know, super flex league. So, having said that, which version, D-Bro of Caleb are we going to get against the Giants this week? I think you're going to get the top 10 version. And the best I can contextualize the season that we're getting from Caleb Williams right now,

Starting point is 00:15:54 he's 2024, Kyla Murray. He's Kyle Murray last year. You don't know when to start him. He's either going to smash or you're going to hate the fact that you started him because of the volatility. Because he has either been a basement level KB2 or he has helped win you weeks. And a lot of this, there's a little more steakiness with Caleb, I will say, this year, because of the matchups and he's been so matchup sensitive because he's just not an accurate passer like amongst 41 qualifying quarterbacks right now he's 28th and accurate throw rate 30th

Starting point is 00:16:25 and catchable target rate the Giants past defense has been struggling man like since week five they're giving up the 12th most passing arts per game and the six highest passer rating so I think you get good Caleb this week fits do you agree like if I put it to you as like a binary thing like yes Caleb no Caleb this week is it a yes week. If it's a binary thing, I am on the good Caleb side just barely. Can I make both cases? Oh, please do. Please do, Fitsy. Okay. So the case for top 10, Caleb, is that the giants are giving up the seventh most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, giving up the fifth most rushing yards to quarterbacks, and Caleb likes to run. And the Bears' offensive line has been just fantastic lately.

Starting point is 00:17:08 So I think that's the case for, oh, and Paulson Adiebo, one of the Giants' cornerbacks, I think he's going be out again this week. So the case against, or maybe the case for Caleb even being outside the top 20, one, Debrough said it with like the inaccuracy of Caleb's passing lately. Two, the Bears' offensive line has just been so good in the running game lately. Their last four games, the Bears have averaged more than 180 rushing yards per game. So maybe they just keep it on the ground against a Giants defense that's giving up 5.9 yards per carry to running backs.

Starting point is 00:17:42 That's not good. And lastly, the weather forecast for Giants Bears isn't looking all that great. Like, I hate overreacting to weather, but it's going to be highs in the 30s with brisk northwest winds of like 16 miles per hour or more. So starting to get close to that threshold where you look at the wind as a factor. And maybe it was a little bit in Raiders Broncos, which I didn't see coming. So this could kind of go either way, I think. Prior to the game against the Bengals, which obviously was an insane game, his previous four games, he combined for two passing touchdowns across four games. That's like just not, and he had one rushing touchdown mixed in there too to help one of those days, but just not tenable from a fantasy quarterback perspective.

Starting point is 00:18:30 And but then he comes around and it's QB1. It was against the Bengals, but, you know, you kind of laid out the case. He's QB13 in ECR this week, which we know. he's not going to finish there based on this stat, but a slight lean towards him going higher from you guys. I do want to ask kind of a second question again on the Bears. Was week nine the breakout for Colston Loveland fits? Or was it just a flash in the pan? Where is he ranked for you amongst tight ends this week? So right now I have got him at tight end nine, even though I might move him down a couple of spots if Cole Komet clear his concussion protocol, which looks like a possibility.

Starting point is 00:19:08 but if if last week wasn't a breakout for colston lovelin then maybe it was at least the start of a breakout we obviously have to consider that he did it against the bengals and the bengals just get wrecked by tight ends on a weekly basis but lovelin is starting to play more snaps even with cole commette around and lovelin has had at least three catches and three straight games so yeah i mean i don't think he is totally inside the tight end circle circle of trust yet but he is maybe inching his way closer to that. By the way, I want to quickly correct something that I said. I say Caleb Williams was QB 13 this week.

Starting point is 00:19:44 I was still looking at the rest of season rankings from a previous conversation. He's actually QB9 this week in the rankings. So the consensus has him with another top 10 week. You just want to make sure that I corrected myself there. D-Bro on Colston Loveland, when you look at something like this where it's like, oh, hey, what a fun game. You know, top 10 pick has the pedigree. We're hoping to see this happen.

Starting point is 00:20:04 At the same time, you can say, like, well, he had a 50-yard touchdown. That was kind of fluky. broke off three tacklers that like makes the day look a lot better than it really was. He is tight end 10 for the week. That is for this week's rankings in half PPR. Does that sound too high, too low or just right for you? It's too high because I think Cole Komet, like to Fitsy's point, I think he does clear and I think he does play. And that the breakout for Loveland happened and I want to be very clear about this.

Starting point is 00:20:29 Like over the last two games for the Bears, like Cole Kamed had a concussion and a back injury. So you look at week six, and that's the last game that we have where both of these guys were absolutely healthy. And during that game, Coulston Loveland at a 39% route chair. Cole Comet was at 30%. Like they were splitting the routes up. So I, if Colcomet is active, it's going to impact Coulston Loveland's route chair. Ben Johnson has been so stubborn about integrating these rookies at a high level. Like Luther Burton, even when he's been healthy, has not overtake.

Starting point is 00:21:05 in Alamede Zakias and people keep we keep waiting for that to happen and it's not happening and they're winning games so I don't think that changes and the same thing with Colston Loveland like he had a wonderful game versus the Bengals but you talk about the flukiness the fact that Cole Kamek got knocked out of the game very early and then also we can also point to the matchup this week is not it's not horrible but it's not like a smash matchup for tight ends like I mean the giants are 14th fewest receiving yards per game overall 16th and schedule adjusted of fantasy points per game to tight ends of the last five games. So it's okay and he can succeed,

Starting point is 00:21:41 but it's not like he's playing the Bengals and you're like, all right, got to fire him up. Let's go. So I kind of lean more to the negative side, only because of the other factors that play here. Just quickly, give me your answer.

Starting point is 00:21:53 Don't need to elaborate. Kyle Pitts or Colson Loveland this week, D. Pits, not even close. Like, not even close. They're close at ECR. Fitz.

Starting point is 00:22:01 Do you also see it as Pitts? If Komet plays, it's going to be Pitts for me too. Kyle Pitts is a top 10 tied in for me this week. Easy. Top 10, okay. They're both inside top 10 in ECR, but very close in the back end of ECR. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock

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Starting point is 00:23:33 What's the news? Huge news. We created. our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts.

Starting point is 00:23:43 Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. the four Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Starting point is 00:24:07 Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

Starting point is 00:24:24 or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guide, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

Starting point is 00:24:49 We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed the game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo.

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Starting point is 00:25:41 Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Next game here, guys, Jaguars at Texans, no Travis Hunter, Brian Thomas Jr. banged up. Now Jacoby Myers in town. We'll see what that looks like week one. And he's been kind of the name we've talked about from this game all week. Fitz, how startable is Parker Washington against the tough Houston defense this week? I don't really want to start any of the Jaguars receivers.

Starting point is 00:26:11 And it is tough to guess at the target distribution between Parker, Washington, the newly acquired Jacoby Myers and Diami Brown is coming back from a concussion. Plus, you said it, where the Texans have a tough pass defense. Like, I've got Parker, Washington ranked wide receiver 41, and even that feels too high. And just one thing about props to hard rock bets, they were the only sports book I found that had a prop on Jacobi Myers receiving yardage in his first game with the Jaguars, which was at 41.5, I want to say. And I promptly bet the under on that. I'll ask you this question first, face, and then I'm going to ask you the same question, D, bro, because they're very close in the flex rankings for this week. In this game, would you rather start Woody Marks or Parker, Washington?

Starting point is 00:26:59 Marks. Oh, Woody Marks. Yeah. Okay. There are only a couple spots apart in the flex rankings and consensus. Again, that's half PPR scoring. Debrough, you said you agree on marks. Yep.

Starting point is 00:27:09 Easy marks. And I've got Washington a wide receiver 37 and that feels too high right now. I'm probably going to bump him down some. Like, it's just. It's exactly what consensus is, is wide receiver 307. Oh, is it? Okay. The thing about it, and I haven't, I got to dive back into him for the primer updates

Starting point is 00:27:27 because of figuring out who's going to play and who's not is going to be. trying to figure out what his role is because he's flip-flop between being a perimeter wide receiver and a slot wide receiver depending on the matchup and depending on like who's been healthy the last few weeks but regardless of however you slice this matchup it's not good for park or washington like houston overall has given up the second fewest schedule adjust to fantasy points per game to wide receivers overall you splice that into perimeter wide receivers second fewest again ninth few is to slot receivers so anyway whether they move him outside or they stick him inside.

Starting point is 00:28:01 It's not going to be a good week for Parker Washington. You're really just playing volume for him as a flex play. That's it. Just because there was a kind of quick conversation on Washington, rest of season, Jacobi Myers, what does he fit in for you guys? Now that we've had a few days to kind of ruminate on the trade and think about it and really sit with it. Where does he kind of fall into your expectations? I mean, obviously, Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter will be back at some point and healthier

Starting point is 00:28:24 at some point. Myers is a good player. The rest of the season, when I ask you that question, Dibro, what's the first kind of number that comes to mind? I just pulled it up wide receiver 49 like I think he's like four or five territory like he's living somewhere in the Josh down like I've actually got all these Jaguars guys like coupled together in the low hot like low 40s high 50s like Myers Washington and Travis Hunter because we don't know what his health outlook because you could take that trade and say okay does this mean we get Travis

Starting point is 00:28:56 Hunter back and they're just trying to add to the cupboard or is this more. more gloom and doom and do we see Travis Hunter for the rest of the season. So somewhere in that low wide receiver four, hide wide receiver five territory and people might think that's too low, but I mean, tell me why not? Same range for you, Fitz. I've got him wide receiver 50. He's right behind your guy, uh, or right ahead of your guy, Rashad Bateman or, um, it's just like eventually Travis Hunter comes back. BTJ is there. Myers is this third piece in a not great. Um, it's passing attack. So, like, I think he's a bench player. Let's go to Bill's at Dolphins. Which players ranking in this game do you guys most

Starting point is 00:29:40 disagree with? Fitz, we'll start with you. I'm a little below consensus on James Cook. I mean, and this is splitting hairs because you're starting him, obviously. I've got him ranked running back six and consensus is running back four. I like Jemir Gibbs and Devon A-chan a little more this week. And I know running backs have been carving up the Miami defense this year. But Cook has this ankle issue that caused him to mispractice on Wednesday and send people into a panic and be speculating about Ray Davis or Ty Johnson being the preferred backup. But maybe with the ankle thing, the bill's pull back on Cook's workload a little bit. And Cook only has two targets and one catch in his last four games. He isn't adding anything as a

Starting point is 00:30:22 receiver lately. So obviously the rushing numbers have been sensational, but that's where he is doing all his business. This could prove to be, you know, poorer analysis by me. I'm not really worried about the foot ankle stuff just because, like, it's what it seems like from, I was seeing some of these videos on Twitter, like, that this happened earlier in last week's game. And he still rushed for 27, like, attempts in that game. So they didn't seem to be dialing it back in the moment.

Starting point is 00:30:48 Now, maybe, like, you know, you have the adrenaline going and it starts to feel worse later in the week. But, you know, I'm not that worried about it. And even if he does have a limited workload, like, how many rushes do you need? against this Miami run defense to have a great day. If you're James Cook, I don't think that many. So obviously you saw them inside your top six. You're not fading James Cook.

Starting point is 00:31:08 But just compared to some of these other elite options that you might have. D-Bro, what do you think? Who's the player that you are either fading or more aggressive on ranking highly in this game? So since week two, I'm going to give you the weekly finishes for this wide receiver. 76, 69, 50, 43, 76, 57, and 67. Why in the ever-loven heck are we ranking Keon Coleman as a wider receiver 43 in ECR? Tell me that. Why is he inside the top 50?

Starting point is 00:31:35 Why is he on any roster? Why is he not dropable? Like, why? You said since week two, well, what was week one? Oh, week one, week one was wide receiver two. Can we spot the outlier family? Can we? Like, no, man, I just, I can't.

Starting point is 00:31:51 Keon Coleman's not playable. Even if we wanted to craft a positive narrative, the Miami's second. versus perimeter wide receivers has actually been improving over the last few weeks. And they didn't trade. I thought Rassil Douglas is gone. They didn't trade him. And then you look at the coverage shell, it's horrible for Keon Colvin, man. Like Miami has the fourth highest rate of too high versus too high.

Starting point is 00:32:14 Keon Colvin 14% target per route run rate. 0.82 yards per route run. It's not good. Like I don't, I just don't understand like why Keon Coleman's even on fantasy rosters at this point. Like, have we not seen enough? I it's funny because I knew when you were reading the numbers that those it wasn't Khalil Shakir's game log because I know he's been better than what you were saying but I almost when you said that you were going to have a receiver that you were going to

Starting point is 00:32:39 discuss here I almost thought it might have been Shakir because he has not been you know that productive for fantasy managers either this year like three of the last four weeks he's been wide receiver 53 49 and 52 excluding his buy week that he had in there you know he He had one game where he was wide receiver six this season, but even that game, it was just a down week and week eight for the position because he was wide receiver six with 14.8 fantasy points. That's not that, like, explosive huge of a day. He does not have 100 yards receiving in a game this season.

Starting point is 00:33:07 He's only top 70 yards receiving into game once this season, just three touchdowns. And this is with the bill's not having a very strong receiving core. So, like, I look at Shakir ranked wide receiver 31. And I, like, again, I knew you weren't talking about him when he started reading the game logs, Dero, but I almost wondered if he was going to come up because. I'm just like I don't really want to be starting Shakir all that badly this weekend. Yeah, I mean, the ceiling's not high with Shakir. I will say like he's he's a stable wide receiver three like against the same secondary in week three.

Starting point is 00:33:34 He was wide receiver 25. So I know he's living off of touchdowns. The volume's not amazing. If you're playing Shakir, you got to know what you're getting yourself into. It's probably 40 to 50 yards and you're praying he gets a touchdown. If he gets the touchdown, he's in wide receiver three territory. If he doesn't get the touchdown, then you're probably like, oh, good Lord. why did I do this?

Starting point is 00:33:54 It's crazy that Josh Allen is a leading MVP candidate. The bills are one of the best strongest Super Bowl contenders in the AFC, and there is no pass catcher you want to use in this office. Like maybe Dalton Kincaid, but even Kincaid, even Kincaid isn't getting like heavy target volume. No, he's not. It's just that they have this terrible, well, at least terrible for fantasy. Everybody eats ethos in Buffalo, so we're seeing all these targets squandered on guys like

Starting point is 00:34:22 Jackson Hawes and Dawson Knox, Elijah Moore, Curtis Samuel, Tyrell Shavers. Yeah, it's just kind of not desirable for all the past catchers. You just want Josh Allen. That's it. Yeah, if you all out on top of that,

Starting point is 00:34:37 like I think it has been terrible, man. Like that passing attack is, is honestly kind of limited. Like when teams can just sit in too high and then play downhill on him, where's the verticality? They have no field stretchers in this offense, none.

Starting point is 00:34:52 does look like a Cliff Kingsbury offense. Yeah. Horizontal raid in Buffalo, baby. It's funny. Like, I don't feel like Josh Allen should be, like, the leading MVP, you know, odds. But I don't know who else I would make the case for instead. Like, the Chiefs have lost too many games, even though it's been great. Lamar's missed time.

Starting point is 00:35:12 Bro, obviously out for most of the year. Like, Drake May, is it a year too early yet? Is this going to be more of like a next year thing? I'm like, I don't, and, you know, it's not going to be a non-quarterback, despite the people who like, you know, enjoy to talk about like Jonathan Taylor or whatever. I got your MVP Canada right here, Worm. It's Matthew Stafford, baby. That's who it is.

Starting point is 00:35:28 Stafford has been on a real heater lately. He's playing at an MVP level. They're going to win the West. He's going to win probably 12 games. He's playing some of the best statistical football of his career. It should be Matthew Stafford. Yeah, I like, I'm trying to pull up the odds right now and my computer is being slow. I mean, where are the Patriots without May having the kind of season he is having them?

Starting point is 00:35:50 No, that's fair. That's fair. I mean, I would give consideration to me. I just wonder if people are like, you know, he's 22. He's got plenty of time to win it in the future. But like Allen just won it last year and like they typically don't like to go back to back if they can avoid it. So that's kind of going to the direction. Sam Donald's, Dark Horse.

Starting point is 00:36:07 Sam Donald is absolutely in this conversation. Yes, he should be in this conversation. If the Ravens had won like one or two more games without Lamar and at least had the record, then I wouldn't because Lamar's stats are insane this year than if he like does leave. them to the playoffs coming back. I can see it, but I just think he missed too much time to overcome. Too much time. And then numbers will be.

Starting point is 00:36:26 So I don't think he's a real option. And I just, yeah, I mean, May might not be a bad back. Again, I can't get my computer to load it. It always comes down to as well. Like, you got to have not only the wins and stuff like that, you got to have, you have to put up the numbers too. Because if you don't, you don't put up the numbers, it just, yeah. I just got to pull up action now.

Starting point is 00:36:46 So yeah, Allen plus 155 on Hard Rock bet. But Mahomes and May are both plus plus 400, Stafford plus 525. And then the next best is plus 1,400 for Darnold. Like Baker-Mayfield had a case early in the year that's kind of fallen up. Herbert, like I think just with the offensive line stuff is not going to get there. But I think he's been awesome this year. Darnold at 14 to 1. I'm going to have to put that in today.

Starting point is 00:37:07 I'm going to do it. I feel like Darnold May and Stafford, like, are my favorite kind of range. Darnon's a lot lower than them in the odds. But I feel like that's my kind of favorite range to be looking at right now. Yep, agreed. So interesting. Yeah, we'll see where that goes. Let's go to, speaking of Lamar, Ravens at Vikings.

Starting point is 00:37:24 I have been saying this all week. I'm absolutely fascinated by this game. Lamar is still shaking off the rust a bit, going up against Minnesota's blitz, and specifically Brian Flores' blitz, which probably the worst game of Lamar's career in the regular season was that Thursday night game against the dolphins a few years ago against Brian Flores, where he looked awful. I cannot remember him ever looking that bad in any game of his entire career. So he's going up against that blitz in Minnesota, again, still shaking off the rusty degree.

Starting point is 00:37:50 On the other side of J.J. McCarthy, who, you know, is going up against an improving, but definitely still limited defense for Baltimore. McCarthy is improving, but still limited himself. There have been turnovers going on, which has been kind of the key to the Ravens turn around on defense, has been forcing more turnovers. It's all just very fascinating for me to watch. I'm really, really intrigued by this. So I kind of just want to leave it a little more wide open for you guys and ask what the most interesting storyline in this game is for each of you. and Diebara, I'll start with you. I'm going to guess.

Starting point is 00:38:17 I'm going to go out on a limb here and say you want to talk about J.J. McCarthy? Oh, we're sitting on the same limb, sir. Yes. Yeah, dude, I think it's J.J. Man, like, I mean, looking at, you know, everybody wanted to bury him, looking at the ups and downs of his play, healthy, not healthy, all the soft benching BS that was making the rounds on social media because people are idiotic.

Starting point is 00:38:38 I don't even understand that. It comes back to J.J., man. A big time game and the Vikings have to keep winning. if they want, you know, shot at the playoffs. I don't think they're probably going to, you know, really realistically have a shot at the NFC North. But if they want to make the playoffs, they got to keep winning and JJ's got to keep improving, man.

Starting point is 00:38:55 And he's been good or solid for fantasy. And the two healthy starts, he's given QB 11 and QB 13. Got Russian equity out of him. You've seen some of the passing highs and the lows. So a lot to improve here. And you talked about the Baltimore past defense. They've shown some improvements,

Starting point is 00:39:13 but still since week five, 11th most passing yards per game fourth highest success rate per dropback allowed so that that's just another fascinating stat line or storyline of this game i want to see how jj plays because i was dude i was quietly surprised like how how well he navigated pressure what he did versus the uh the lions but also you saw some of the shortcomings of things he still has to clean up like he airmailed a few short throws or when he was on the move and stuff like that so left a lot of yards on the field so JJ is definitely the guy that I, or at least the storyline that I want to talk about here. You know, Fitz, Debrough mentioned, like, the Vikings really need this game to kind of keep, you know, keep fighting for the playoffs.

Starting point is 00:39:54 The Ravens really need this game to keep fighting for the playoffs. Like, they lost, for as little margin of errors they had, they lost even more of it when the Steelers upset the Colts and just get another win on their ledger. So it's a really, for two teams that are below 500, it's a really wildly important game. It is. And, yeah, and Debrough, McCarthy has to just stop. like thwarting his own drives. He's just, he could have even better fantasy numbers and actually like maybe even be a worthwhile fantasy starter. If like he's taken 14 sacks in three starts, sacks are drive killers. He's thrown four interceptions. He's fumbled four times. Like,

Starting point is 00:40:31 there are a lot of mistakes. So I'm not, I'm not saying J.J. McCarthy has played good. There have been some moments, but he has not played well in his three starts. So I'm more interest in where we are at with the Vikings defense and the matchup against Lamar. Like, I want to know how we should look at Minnesota as a fantasy matchup the rest of the way, because coming into the season, we generally thought of the Vikings as a tough defensive matchup. But the Vikings defense, not playing so well as of late. Coming out of the by, the Vikings got blasted by the Eagles and the Chargers. That was week seven and eight before the buy.

Starting point is 00:41:06 They had made the Steelers and Browns' offenses look pretty good in weeks four and five. But last week, the Vikings got Andrew Van Ginkle back from injury, and he hadn't played since week three. I am now convinced that Van Ginkle is just the linchpin of the Brian Flores defense. Like the Vikings did a really nice job of holding down the powerful Lions offense in Detroit last week. Detroit had 305 yards of offense well below their average. I want to see how tough the Vikings make things on Lamar.

Starting point is 00:41:34 I wonder, I feel like a lot of the conversation this week when talking about this game specifically in terms of the Ravens offense against the Vikings defense has been about Lamar, and I've been a part of that. I wonder if this might just be kind of like a, I don't want to say surprise, but like if this just ends up being like a Derek Henry, like all the way back, because he's had some explosive games lately, but it's felt more like, like it's Miami, it felt more like he just wore him down late, right, which is what Derek Henry does. It didn't feel like he was just, like, dominating early.

Starting point is 00:42:01 I wonder if this is a game where, like, Derek Henry just does kind of come out of nowhere and has his best fantasy day since week one with all the attention. being on Lamar and obviously him opening things up for him maybe another week you know post injury had this extended break with the Thursday night game maybe Lamar's more mobile which then helps open stuff up even more for Derek Henry the Vikings I feel like if you can get past the initial tackler like you can run on them like you know deep into the to the second level I just I feel like this could be a Derek Henry game like when everybody's looking in a different direction dbrough yeah it's possible and I think the the part that I'll definitely hammer on there is

Starting point is 00:42:39 Lamar's mobility and another week back from the hamstring injury is going to be critical to that. Because if anybody watched like, yes, Lamar three for four passing touchdowns. That was fantastic. His passing acumen was definitely there. He didn't look like Lamar Jackson. If you watch that game, he looked tentative to run. He was not looking to run. He didn't look a spry in the pocket.

Starting point is 00:43:00 You could tell he was not clearly not 100%. So to your point, I'm very interested to see what version of Lamar Jackson do we get is the Ham he's still not fully healthy and he's still a little bit tentative in the pocket. And then you got Brian Flores like teeing off on him on the Blitz and some of their run game concepts are more limited because of Lamar's hamstring. Or if he's healthier, we get more mobile Lamar and that opens up things for Derek Henry. But I think Lamar's health is going to play a huge factor in this on multiple levels. 100%.

Starting point is 00:43:33 The offensive line has not been good this year. And so you need the mobility from the quarterback. That's why Tyler Huntley was so much better than Cooper Rush. is he was more mobile and could, you know, well, that's a low bar to clear too, you know. It was a low bar to clear, but like having a statue back there with this offensive line is simply not tenable. No, that's fair.

Starting point is 00:43:50 You know, Lamar is not a statue, obviously. But I thought Lamar was slower even in September before getting hurt. Honestly, I remember during the Lions game, I texted one of my good friends who's a big Ravens fan. I was like, dude, does Lamar look slow to you? Like, what is going on here? So I feel like that's been a thing all year. And then obviously just kind of compounded with the hamstring injury.

Starting point is 00:44:06 So again, I'm really fascinated by this game. What do you guys think? Ravens were minus four and a half last I looked. Maybe it moved to minus three and a half. What do you guys think about that? I never bet against the Vikings in US Bank Stadium. I don't think the Ravens cover that.

Starting point is 00:44:21 I think it's going to be very, very close. I think this comes down to final possession. I don't think this game's going to come down to who has the ball last. It's minus four now. Yeah, I don't think I don't know if I would bet on the Vikings, but I don't want to bet on the Ravens. I think the better, what's the total in this game worm? Is it still was like 48 and a half?

Starting point is 00:44:37 It was kind of high. I felt the last I looked. Let me pull that up. Because I think if you're going to attack from a betting angle, I think the total is much more of a- 49. Yeah, I think the total is much more of the playground than I'm willing to, the sandbox.

Starting point is 00:44:50 I like the under a lot, honestly. Yeah, I could see that. I'm a big fan of the under. All right, Fantasy Pro's listeners, this is for you. Fantasy Showdown combines fantasy football with stat enhancing gear. That's point one. Stat enhancing gear, you equip for your team.

Starting point is 00:45:05 Point two, you can start playing now. Start any time and keep rolling through the playoffs. Point three, you get 100 free pieces of gear with the Fantasy Pro's referral. Again, stat enhancing gear, start playing now at 100 free pieces. Use code Showdownfp and go to Fantasy Showdown.com slash FP. Create your team, equip your gear, and get started today. Again, that's Fantasy Showdown.com slash FP. All right, guys, Browns at Jets.

Starting point is 00:45:33 Oh, boy, what a fun one. How high are you ranking Quinn John Judkins? against a Jets defense that just traded away its best players, D-Bro? Oh, does the number exist? No, it's seriously like that. He's a low-end RB1. I've got him in RB12, but I think the conversation starts somewhere in the mid, like to low RB1 range.

Starting point is 00:45:57 Like, I think the conversation, you can have a really good conversation of him versus Rico Dowdell. So, like, it's probably like RB7, RB8 is where the conversation for Judkin, starts and I mean, it's, they just traded away their best run stuffer. And before that, with him on this defense since week five, the Jets were still giving up the fifth most rushing arts per game. And they had the 10th lowest stuff rate. So yeah, the, the rest of the season is going to be start all your fantasy options versus the Jets. They traded away their best corner. They traded away their best defensive linemen. Just fire up the options. Fitz, what do you think? I mean,

Starting point is 00:46:37 is like, it feels like the vibes could deteriorate, could deteriorate, excuse me, very quickly in New York. Definitely. But I've got Judkins' RB-11. I don't think he's in the same tier as Doubtle. We certainly like the matchup for Judkins, but he's averaged three yards per carry over his last three games. And he's had minus two receiving yards over his last three games. His passing game usage is just completely dried up. So I like Judkins.

Starting point is 00:47:04 Like the matchup. I just don't love the offensive ecosystem. Was there anything else on this game I missed? I mean, like, I just didn't have any players that I really wanted to talk about here, honestly. Nope. No. I think it's pretty much it, man. Like, you want to start a lot of your parts of pieces, but good Lord, like both these offenses are just borderline decrepit.

Starting point is 00:47:24 The only thing I'll add edgewise here is I think this is quietly a good matchup for Breece Hall. If you look at what the Brown's run defense has been versus the perception, like the beginning of the season, they were stopping everybody and anybody, but since week five, they've given up the 11th most rushing, or excuse me, the 11th most yards at the contact per attempt and the third highest miss tackle rate. So I will say I will be above consensus on Breeze this week. Last game in the early slate, Patriots at Buccaneers looking lower down the rankings, because some of these guys are very obvious starts. But looking further down, if you guys needed a wide receiver help in week 10,

Starting point is 00:48:01 would you rather start Tess Johnson or DiMario Douglas in this game fits? TES. Before the Buccaneers went on buying week nine, Tess was wide receiver 24 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring over his previous four games. He needed at least 43 receiving yards in all those games, so like a pretty sturdy floor. No Mike Evans for the Buccaneers. It looks like Chris Godwin might not be back for a while. Look, I realized Amario Douglas at 100 yards last week, and he's weirdly become this guy who occasionally pops off for big plays. after sort of being the polar opposite of a big player receiver the last couple of years, just this short area possession guy.

Starting point is 00:48:40 But here's the thing. Douglas has played less than 30% of New England's offensive snaps in seven of the Patriots nine games this season. And in each of the last five, Pop Douglas hasn't played more than 17 snaps in a game since week three. That's just nothing to hang your hat on. It's possible the Patriots give Douglas more snaps this week with Cajon Booty out. but Douglas is playing behind Stefan Diggs and Mack Hollins, and the Patriots have been talking about a bigger role for rookie Kyle Williams. And last week, Williams out snapped Douglas 31 to 18.

Starting point is 00:49:13 So the prop on Douglas is set at 41.5 yards at Hard Rock Bad. And the under is one of my favorite bats of the week. Okay. Yeah, baby. That's a compelling case. I like Douglas more than you, but that's a good case against him. Debrough, what do you think? 17 or fewer snaps, man, for five straight.

Starting point is 00:49:31 that's just not enough to make him reliable in fantasy. Yeah, for anybody believing in Pop Douglas, Matt Collins says, hold your beer. So, you know, I think he's going to get outsnap Douglas. Douglas last week only had a 32% route share. These numbers for Douglas last week are just not sustainable. Like he had a 46% target per route run rate. He had a 31% first read share.

Starting point is 00:49:54 Like, neither one of those numbers are at all replicable. And even if you wanted to just say, okay, what if Pop is a full-time player? Also since week 5, Tampa Bay, fourth fewest PPR points per target to the slot, 11th fewest receiving yards per game allowed. This is Tess for me on multiple levels. One, he's playing more snaps.

Starting point is 00:50:13 And two, the matchup is actually, it's middle of the road, but he's been good versus too high coverage, which since week seven, New England, 59% of the defensive snaps have been too high. And since Tess Johnson, I know it's a small sample size here is a full-time-ish kind of player

Starting point is 00:50:28 in the Bucks passing attack, but since week six, Tess Johnson against too high, 19% target per route run rate, 2.0 yards per route run. So this is Tess for me. Okay. I guess I'm the odd man out on Douglas.

Starting point is 00:50:42 I would still probably go Tess, but I see it as closer than you guys too. So we'll see how plays out. I think McElwold scorn this week. I'll say that. Okay. All right. Yeah, that's interesting.

Starting point is 00:50:51 I don't see it that way, but when I disagree with you, I tend to trust you. So we'll see how it goes. Cardinals at Seahawks. This is into the late afternoon. Slate on Sunday. With Jacoby Brissette, the starter in Arizona moving forward, where are you ranking Marvin

Starting point is 00:51:04 Harrison Jr., both in week 10, which is against the very tough Seahawks defense, but also rest of season with this quarterback changed, D, bro. Wide receiver 29 this week and wide receiver 28 rest of season, it just, he's still a wide receiver three. He's still going to be up and down, like, as good as he's been at various times, he's still wide receiver 34 and fantasy points per game. He still only has earned an 18. percent target share.

Starting point is 00:51:31 Tough matchup this week. So yeah, like I think he, you can make a case. He's a low end wide receiver two on some weeks, depending on the matchup. That is definitely not this week. Since week five, Seattle has allowed the 14th fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. So yeah, I mean, I think Marv is definitely going to get a bump because Brissette is better than Kyler Murray.

Starting point is 00:51:52 And in the year 2025, I don't know if anybody would have walked into the year saying that that's the case, but Kyler's not played good over the last, like, two-plus seasons. Fitz, he is Marvin Harrison Jr. wide receiver 19 in half-P-R, ECR. Is that too high, too lower, just right? I mean, I've got him wide receiver 20. I understand D. Brokepticism, but like we're talking about a week with the Bengals, Cowboys, and Chiefs on by, that's like five or six really good receivers who are out of the mix. So if those guys were playing, like I would have Harrison ranked as a high-end wide receiver three. And that's kind of where I have him rest of season. wide receiver 26. So I know wide receiver 20, like with Harrison having a tough matchup against

Starting point is 00:52:35 Seattle might seem a little lofty, but it's basically with the buy teams. He's wide receiver 25 and rest of season consensus ranking. So right, right in line with you there. Debrough, where is he rest of season ranking for you? He is wide receiver 28. So yeah, I mean, I still got him in one receiver three territory. For this week, Debrough, Marvin Harrison Jr. or Tederoa McMillan? Oh, I've got them back to back. They're two spots away in UCR. I've legit got them back to back, and I think I'm probably going to flip them. I would take Marvin Harrison Jr., just based off a volume.

Starting point is 00:53:08 And fits, it sounded like you would take Harrison. Two spots higher than 10. All right, I want to let everybody know, speaking of receivers, if you want a chance to win a Justin Jefferson signed Vikings jersey for free, courtesy of our friends at pristine auction.com. All you need to do is head to fantasypros.com slash contest, complete the form, and either. download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on X, Instagram, or TikTok at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We will be announcing a winner on the podcast near the beginning of next month.

Starting point is 00:53:39 If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. All right, next game here, guys. Rams at 49ers, fun game here. We talked about him earlier, D-Bro. Matthew Stafford has been on a heater. He is tied for QB8 on the season in points per game. despite offering nothing as a runner.

Starting point is 00:54:00 Give me a surprising name that you are starting Stafford over this week. I don't know if these are surprising. So I'm going to kind of like throw these at the wall here. I've got two or three names. And you guys tell me what you think. Is Jackson Dart over him surprising or not? I kind of feel like it's not, but I want to throw it out there. Daniel Jones.

Starting point is 00:54:19 Is that surprising? A little. Jones and Stafford are back to back in ECR. Okay. So Daniel Jones, I just, the Atlanta secondary is. falling off. I think this is a good get right spot. We've already talked about Alec Pierce and single high coverage and all that kind of stuff. Michael Pittman's playing amazing. The third name I was going to evoke in here is I think you can make a pretty easy case for Jared

Starting point is 00:54:42 golf this week. I think the Lions come out and they are ticked off. This is one of those spots where they just run up the freaking score and drop like a 40 burger on the commanders. So golf is probably the surprising name, but I've got him and Stafford. I mean, like, right back to back in rankings. So I just want to clarify for the listeners that I think you took this question in the reverse of what I intended it. I was asking who was somebody that you were starting Stafford over? That is surprising.

Starting point is 00:55:08 Oh, got it. So it's totally fine, but I just want to clarify for the listeners that you're not saying to start Stafford over those guys. You're saying start those guys over Stafford. Okay, so the flip side of that, I'll start Matthew Stafford over Caleb Williams, a player that we talked about earlier. I will easily start Matthew Stafford over him. I think the floor and the ceiling are definitively higher.

Starting point is 00:55:25 That's reversed from ECR. So yeah, that is a surprising one. Fitz, what do you think? Who would you start Stafford over? That might be a surprise to people. I mean, I guess Caleb Williams, but I don't think that should be a surprise. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:55:38 Is Baker Mayfield a surprising name? That's the other name I was thinking of Fitz. It's a surprise based on consensus. Yeah, I've Stafford eight. And I just like, I don't think that's surprisingly high. I feel like that's the right ranking form. I do wish I had ranked Stafford. I had a bow next who I had.

Starting point is 00:55:54 I was just going to happen. You could go back at time and remember before you knew what happened in the game, would you have said Stafford over Nix? And it sounds like you said you wouldn't have. Unfortunately not. I debated those two. I debated those two in rankings all the way up to like kickoff, man. I was looking at him and I'm like,

Starting point is 00:56:12 is Bo going to burn me and he burned me? Yeah, that's a tough one. All right. Yeah, so I mean, Stafford's been great all year. We like them this week. MVP. Fun times are going to continue. Let's go to the last.

Starting point is 00:56:24 game in the late slate here. Lions at Commanders, without Jane Daniels, who, by the way, is not going to get surgery, I guess, and could be back at some point this season. I don't know that that makes a whole lot of sense for the commanders and what I expect the record to be by the time he's ready to come back. But we'll see. Certainly not there this week. Without Jane Daniels, if you had to be above consensus on one Washington commander this

Starting point is 00:56:45 week, Fitz, who would it be? I don't know. Chris Moore. He'll play more snaps at Terry McLauran out. Jalen Lane, more snaps for him. I think I'm ahead of consensus on both guys. I don't want to play any of the commanders. I just think they're going to be a bug on the Detroit Lions windshield this Sunday.

Starting point is 00:57:06 I totally agree, which is why I put this question here. I was like, if I tried to force you to pick somebody and you sneakily just picked people who obviously nobody would be starting. Because he was deep in his bag, baby. I love it. I mean, like you couldn't pay me to start Jacori-Crossi Merritt this week. And then Debo, like if you're fading him, who else are even going to really consider?

Starting point is 00:57:23 Zach Ertz? maybe a tight end catches a touchdown. I don't know. So I'm with you there. Fitz again, that's why I asked the question. Dibro, what do you think?

Starting point is 00:57:31 I just put Dibo in here, only because I firmly believe the commanders are going to be trailing. Divo versus single high has not been good. And that's been one of the biggest struggles for the commanders. They don't have with McLaurin out. They don't have an answer for single high coverage. They literally don't have a guy that could beat on single high on that entire freaking roster. But if you want to have the glass half full approach with Dibo,

Starting point is 00:57:53 they're going to be trailing. target volume and Detroit has struggled against slot wide receivers. So that's the pro case for Debo. Debo's wide receiver 22 though. Like he's so high. I don't want to be above consensus. I mean, I'm below consensus.

Starting point is 00:58:07 I know you're saying to make the case for somebody. I don't want to do it. I think Ertz is the right decision because tight end, you know, you could catch a touchdown. If he gets a touchdown, he's probably going to be higher than tight end 16. So I think it's a better bet than anybody else. I mean, I'm not saying I want to rank him that high. but I think it's a better bet than anybody else in this offense outperforming their ranking. It's ugly.

Starting point is 00:58:31 It's ugly. Yeah. Yeah, we can actually move on pretty quickly from that one. Let's go to Saturday night football. Steelers at Chargers, the Chargers' usual suspects are ranked in their typical ranges this week, according to consensus. But I find myself worried and everybody, I think a lot of people find themselves worried about an offensive line missing both tackles for the season going up against a Steelers pass rush that got it going a bit last week. And you obviously has a lot of talent in the front seven. So I'm wondering, Debrough, if you're fading any Chargers players this week based on that

Starting point is 00:58:57 matchup, or are you more kind of ranking them along the lines of ECR? I'm not fading the Chargers players overall, man. But there is one that does stick out to me. Like, Heenan Allen is wide receiver 33 in ECR right now. But the last two weeks, he's wide receiver 48 and he's wide receiver 56 and weekly scoring. He's only had a 50% route share. So he's been splitting time with Ray Harris over the last two weeks. and his target share has dropped to 18%.

Starting point is 00:59:27 Now, I'm not saying the matchup isn't good for him, and I'm not saying they haven't gone to him versus a single high coverage. You're going to see a crap ton of it this week. But based off of what he's doing and the fact that his route share has dropped, it has dropped the floor for him as a fantasy asset, and it's capped the ceiling over the last two weeks. So I have a hard time kind of stuff. Part of this is the buy weeks,

Starting point is 00:59:48 but I think he's ranked a little too aggressively. What do you think, Fitz? Are you nervous about the Chargers at all? I mean, it could be Keenan Allen, could be somebody else. The total in this game is 45, just for what it's worth on Hard Rock bet. But what do you think about this matchup for the Chargers offense? I'm two spots below consensus on Justin Herbert, and it looks like I'm a little below consensus on Ladd-McConkey. Right now I'm at consensus on Keenan Allen.

Starting point is 01:00:11 DeBrow makes a great case. I think we should move him down. The other thing with Keenan Allen, like with Joe Alt, out, maybe the Chargers play a little more 12 personnel. and they play like one of their tight ends who can actually block with Gadsden, who's more of a glorified wide receiver, which would mean a reduction in Snapchat, a further reduction in Snapchat for Keenan Allen. So with Herbert, Joe Alt did miss three games earlier this season,

Starting point is 01:00:39 weeks five, six, seven. And we didn't really see an adverse effect on Justin Herbert's numbers in those three games, but two of those three games were against the commanders of dolphins, really good matchups. The other one was against the Colts, and that was that game where the Chargers fell into that deep hole and Herbert threw 55 passes for 420 yards and three touchdowns. But I do expect just overall a less functional passing game with Joe Alt out and maybe a less functional running game too. Like the Chargers did trade for Trevor Penning from the Saints, but like Alt's one of the best tackles in the league. And Penning is just a, you know, adequate starter.

Starting point is 01:01:16 We got, I mentioned earlier that we got a lot of questions on Kyle Minangai on the start sit stream. We also got a lot of questions on Quentin Johnston. And we basically never, like Erickson and I, I don't think ever picked him as like, pick three guys to start and one of them was Johnson. We never went in that direction. He did get a touchdown in this last game. Obviously, he had no targets the week before, which kind of threw everybody off. You guys didn't really mention him here.

Starting point is 01:01:38 Are you above or below consensus on Johnson? Just quickly fits. Where's he at an ECR worm? I think I'm two spots higher. He's wide receiver 29 in E. I'm way higher. I'm way higher on QJ this week. I've got him at wide receiver 23.

Starting point is 01:01:54 I think, so first of all, I think the Chargers injury reporting lies. I don't think that he was clearly not healthy. If you looked at his early season target shares, and I know Ladd was struggling during that and stuff, but still QJ was running away with Target share, and then he just drops off the freaking map coming back from the hamstring injury, and then he bounces back last week. This coverage matchup is fantastic for him.

Starting point is 01:02:16 Like weeks one through four, he was there clear and easy wide receiver one versus single high coverage. Like he had a 25% target share versus single high. So I think if Herbert has time in the pocket, I know that's a big if in this game, I think QJ is going to have a really good game. We are starting something new in this show. Each week we're going to be highlighting our favorite three and four star props from the prop bet cheat sheet ahead of Sunday night football. The cheat sheet is a wonderful resource for putting. together your prop bets for the week. So we're going to start highlighting it on Sunday night football's matchup every single week. We're going to highlight those three and four star props.

Starting point is 01:02:53 If you want the five star props, you can go online and see those which have a much higher hit rate. These have good hit rates too, though. I would strongly recommend checking them out. Dibra, I'll start with you. What is your favorite prop from the cheat sheet for Sunday night football? Can you gain well, baby? It's a four star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet, the over for his 15 and a half rushing yards and you're going to have to kind of book shop here and stuff like that. it's anywhere from like 15 and a half to I've seen it all the way up into the 20s. So definitely shop lines here. Our projections on the site have his line at 25.1.

Starting point is 01:03:27 And he's hit the over in five of seven games as a backup. And the matchup is good on the ground. Fitz was your favorite? I picked Kamani Vidal under. So initially it was a four star cheat, cheat bat at 58 and a half rushing yards. It's down to 53 and a half at Hard Rock Bat. And I still think the under is the right percentage play.

Starting point is 01:03:48 I haven't noticed if we've downgraded that to like a three-star play. But on this week starts the show, Jake Seeley and I argued about Kamani Vidal versus Brees Hall. And Jake said he preferred Brice by a mile. I said I slightly preferred Vidal just because he's in a better offense and has a better matchup. Like Hall gets the Browns. I know the run defense hasn't been quite as good lately, but it's still really good. And Jake did make a good point that Jared Patterson got involved for the charters and maybe Vidal's snapshot which was it 72% last week.

Starting point is 01:04:17 Maybe it comes down a little bit. And the Steelers run defense was good last week. They held Jonathan Taylor to 45 rushing yards and 3.2 yards per carry. So while I don't mind Vidal and fantasy, I think under 53.5 rushing yards seems like a pretty decent bet. Still a three-star bet. I think you and Jake arguing on Vidal is the like most, like actually argumentative I've seen the two of you in doing the show with you all of you.

Starting point is 01:04:44 That was fun. I mean, it was like, it wasn't like angry. That is an absolute 20-25 moment. Can you, can any of us say from the summer that you would have fast forward and said at week 10,

Starting point is 01:04:55 you're going to have an argument about Breece Hall versus Kamani Vidal? Exactly. Nobody would have predicted that. Everybody would have like, nah, no way, man. No way. So those are our top prop bets

Starting point is 01:05:05 for Sunday night football this week, courtesy of betting pros. You can check out our NFL prop bet cheat sheet at beddingpros. com slash props. Premium subscribers have access to those five-star prop bets which have a 58% win rate, and we're up 95 units through week 9.

Starting point is 01:05:19 Luckily, we've also got a special offer for everyone to unlock a month of betting pros premium for free. Download the betting pros app today and use promo code FP1 months. That's the number one not spelled out at checkout to redeem your offer. One more game on the slate here, guys, Monday night football Eagles at Packers. Awesome game. Even with the Packers coming off of a dot, I think this is a really fun matchup, and I'm really excited to watch this. Except, oh, wait, I can't watch it. Thanks to YouTube TV.

Starting point is 01:05:44 ESPN. That's a conversation for another day. Eagles at Packers, I'm excited to follow this game, I guess, online. Fantasy-wise, there wasn't a ton here. I did want to ask just kind of the overall conversation of Tucker Kraft's injury and what it's going to mean for the Packers' offense. Who is going to step up fits? You are a Packers fan. You're very close to the team. Who is going to step up in Kraft's absence? Is it Luke Musgrave as, you know, backup tight end? Or will it be one of the teams's many different receivers who will see a boost in value just through getting more work, even if they're not a one-to-one replacement. Where do those targets go?

Starting point is 01:06:18 The Eagles are a pretty tough matchup for tight ends. I think they've allowed like the fourth fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. So I don't expect Luke Musgrave to smash. But I'm cautiously optimistic that he shows us fantasy viability. Like, it's easy to forget that Musgrave was actually drafted ahead of Tucker Kraft in 23. Musgrave was a second round pick, 42nd overall. Craft was a third rounder, 78th over.

Starting point is 01:06:42 Overall, Musgrave started six games as a rookie before Kraft made his first NFL start. And Musgrave is 6 foot six and ran a 4-6-1 at the Combine, which gave him a 94th percentile speed score. Like, he's, he's toolsy. So, and there's going to be some target spillover for Romeo Dobbs and Christian Watson, too. Like, Dobbs is pretty close to a must start this week, I think. and Watson flex-worthy at minimum. It's such a cliche to compare Muskraven crafts to Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews, but it really is like, you know, the-

Starting point is 01:07:21 I got a tweet out there right after they were drafted saying exactly that. It's, I mean, it was in the same round, so a little different, but the year that the Ravens took Isaiah likely, they took Charlie Kohler earlier in that same round. So it's kind of similar where a second tight end is sometimes better than the first. the Andrews Hearst is really the great comparison there. Debrough, do you think Musgrave is a possibility to step up here in Kraft's absence,

Starting point is 01:07:45 or is it one of the receivers? I think it's one of the receivers. I think, like, Fitsy talked about the matchup. I think the matchup is rough for him. I honestly think, like, Romeo Dobbs has not gotten enough love from people this year. Like, what he's done and the fact that he stepped up

Starting point is 01:07:59 as the clear wide receiver one for the Green Bay Packers, like, Dubs is a 20% target share this year. he has 2.0 yards per route run. He is a 25% first read share. If you look at him just like, and he's been coverage agnostic, like he's been good versus single high and too high and not, there's very few wide receivers you could say that are good versus both of these coverage shells, but dubs is good versus both them, like 2.0, 1.9 yards per route run against both them.

Starting point is 01:08:30 He's top 26 in both of those against both those coverage shells. So like, I think Jordan Love is going to lean. on his number one guy a little bit more this week and moving forward. So Fidsey talked about dubs is a must play. I mean, I think he's just a strong rest of season wide receiver. And I have been hesitant to say that about any Green Bay Packers wide receiver because of what LaFleur does, but I think this does kind of narrow the target tree some. Just quickly before we wrap up, are you guys downgrading Jordan Love without Tucker

Starting point is 01:09:01 craft? No, because I think the scheme provides, and I think we'll forefork. We're still going to, he's still going to get it up. And Love has been playing so well this year, man. Just not a lot of volume. Fitz. Yeah, I mean, because of the volume, I kind of am. I've got him in quarterback 15 this week.

Starting point is 01:09:20 All right. Well, go ahead and wrap things up there. We don't know along for everybody. Best luck here in week 10 and in your fantasy playoff pushes for Dibro and Fitz. I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pro's Fantasy Football Podcast.

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Starting point is 01:10:48 Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

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The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 10 (Ep. 1829)

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