The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 11 (Ep. 1843)

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

Starting point is 00:00:12 We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

Starting point is 00:00:26 Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros football podcast. I'm Ryan Warmly, joined as I am every Friday by Derek Brown and Pat Fitzmores. We are answering and asking key questions here for week 11.

Starting point is 00:00:46 Quick reminder for everybody, all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found at Fantasypros.com slash rankings. We have the least impactful byweek we've had in a while, except for the fact that Jonathan Taylor is not playing. If you remove that from the equation, it's only two teams, and one of those teams is the Saints. So Colts and Saints are the two, of course, which is a lot easier than it has been. We had the 16-by. We've had some four-team buys with a lot of really good players.

Starting point is 00:01:13 Colts have obviously been great this year. Jonathan Taylor is like the story of fantasy, but he's really the main megastar that is missing, you know, from these teams on by. So more games to get through, more players that we can get to pick from and actually can start something closer to a fuller, you know, true lineup at this point in the season. Before we jump in, though, one player who is maybe elevating to superstar status in front of our eyes, Travion Henderson coming off of a three touchdown game, they gave him a couple carries close to the goal line to try and get him a fourth that didn't happen.

Starting point is 00:01:49 But 19 carries overall, 62 yards, two rushing touchdowns, and then he had five catches on five targets, 31 yards, and one of those was a touchdown. Well, Fitz, this is somebody that you were ranking, I believe it was your RB8 in Dynasty before the season started, very, very high on him. Obviously, a slow start. Obviously, somebody that you and Debrough have not, like, fought on this year on the show, but have disagreed on at times in the show about, you know, what this was going to look like in the second half. Some vindication for you here on Thursday night football. By the way, Patriots win 2714. Yeah, I mean, I don't feel super vindicated.

Starting point is 00:02:24 I don't know if I've been overly high on Henderson relative. to the community. I think we were all kind of waiting for this. It was just strange that he was not getting a little more usage. Like, I don't think it's crazy that they were mixing in a lot of Romandre Stevenson. You know, but it's going to be really interesting to see what it looks like going forward. I still think the Patriots might prefer a bigger bodied guy near the goal line. So I wouldn't be surprised if it was still Ramondre getting most of the touches inside the five-yard line, the 10-yard line going forward. But I do think the genie's kind of out of the bottle here with Trayvion Henderson,

Starting point is 00:03:04 and he's going to be a really solid, like running back to the rest of the way. I was going to ask you to put a number on it, rest of season ranking. Obviously, you're not beholden to this, but shooting from the hip right now, where do you think he's going to be rest of season rankings come Monday morning? Yet mid-range running back to, like I'll say, running back 17, 18. Okay, Debrough, how does that sound to you? I think people are going to over. not going to say overreact, but a three touchdown game coming off of what three games in a row of being a bell cow. I'd be surprised if he's outside the top 13 to 15 running backs for people rest of season rankings. Just because overreaction season is real. And I'm not, I'm not taking anything away from Trayvion. And I want to be very clear about how I framed Trayvion in the last few weeks. His efficiency metrics have not been good. But dude, he is playing like they are opening up big holes and his speed is taken over.

Starting point is 00:03:57 and he's getting a crap ton of it. He played 90% of the freaking snaps last night, guys. Like, I don't know if that keeps up with Ramandre back. And obviously, Terrell Jennings was active, but not really active. So I don't know if they continue to ride him like a true bell cow the rest of the season. But the volume, the touchdown equity with this offense, it's wheels up rest of the season with Trayvion. You think mid-range running back to rest of the season or higher?

Starting point is 00:04:27 I mean, I was just. looking at it like before worm kind of went RB 14 is kind of where I'm at Fitsy like him versus Sequin like yeah but Sequin is still a belcala

Starting point is 00:04:39 I don't think Romandre is just going to be like a straight backup to Treveon Henderson when Romandre gets back I think it's going to be maybe maybe 6040 in Trey's favor but I think Romandre is going to have a pretty substantial role still that's fair I mean I probably

Starting point is 00:04:55 like 65 35 Trevion. I just, with him versus Sequin, it's like, yeah, one guy is the clear bell cow, but he's not doing anything with the volume, too, you know, outside of the Giants game. It's like, that's pumped up his season long numbers, a ton. So given everything we've heard from Vrable, would it totally stud you fits if it was 6040 in favor of Ramandre? Yeah. What's Remandre is healthy? I mean, I don't think so after the last three weeks. I wouldn't say there's, it's a zero percent change. Not after the last three weeks.

Starting point is 00:05:23 Like if Traveon hadn't looked like a total fricking stud, like a different time. times, then I think you're probably right, worm. But to Fitsy's point, like, how do you put the toothpaste back in the tube at this point? How do you do that? Yeah. Yeah, you can't unring that bell. Drake may look really good. Wasn't his biggest fantasy day, but, you know, he was his usual good self.

Starting point is 00:05:46 Diggs was good. On the jet side, like Fields was bad, but he had 60 yards in a rushing touchdown. So, of course, that helps you a ton of fantasy. Is METI, D-Brow, somebody that you're interested at all, catching the only touchdown here? I mean, I feel like we don't even really need to talk about the Jets side. No, I mean, the answer, the answer honestly with their passing game is just nobody. Even after coming off to IR, like, when are we going to see Garrett Wilson? Like, do we see him the rest of the regular season?

Starting point is 00:06:11 Like, this is not a team that, like, needs to push him out there. They're going to still continue to not win games. I know they were competitive-ish in this game. I just, it's really just brief. Because, dude, like, Fields is playing at a point where Tyrod, It is live every single week where Tyrod could take over at any point of the game. Like that's how bad he's struggling. So it's really the Jets are Breeze Hall and then a lot of I just don't care.

Starting point is 00:06:40 Yeah. I mean, Garrett Wilson, best case scenario is back for the fantasy playoffs. I doubt it. That he's coming up. You know, Rust will be a factor. He'll be, you know, stepping into a poor offense in all likelihood. Like, yeah. If it's like 80 Mitchell, he got six targets, one of them, I mean, just like,

Starting point is 00:06:57 Like, what is there to talk about here at the Jets? Or can we just move on? We can move on. A.D. Mitchell. Like, AD is still intriguing for Dynasty, but, man, like, he did not make the most of his targets last night. He looked pretty bad. And in fairness to Fields, like, Fields passing numbers should have been a little

Starting point is 00:07:12 better if AD could have actually had some professional catches. Yeah, that's fair. All right. Let's get into the Sunday slate. We have one fine. I think I said it was the last one last week. And, of course, I was wrong. There was one final international game here.

Starting point is 00:07:27 Commanders versus Dolphins in Madrid. So one last chance to get up early. One last chance to take advantage. Well, not the last chance to use it, but a last prime opportunity for autopilot tool fantasy pros in case there's any surprise inactive or injuries or anything in the morning and you're trying to sleep in on Sunday. This is the last one of the season, though. Like I said, Commander's Dolph, it's not exactly going out on a high note for the

Starting point is 00:07:50 international slate here. If I took Devon A. Chan and Jalen Waddle off the table, they are not options for you. Which player in this game would you most want to be starting this week, Dbro? There's actually a bunch of guys on the commander's side I can make a case for here. I can talk about Chris Rodriguez being a really solid RB3, maybe an RB2 if he gets into the end zone this week. I'll go with the position that I think people are kind of struggling at the bottom end. I'll go with Zach Ertz here. It's a fantastic matchup for him. Like Miami's a lot of the fifth most receiving arts and the seventh highest charts perception and the third most

Starting point is 00:08:25 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Like I've got Zach Kurtz as a tight-in one this week. I'm playing over and two players that I highlighted last week that I think people are emphatically point chasing on. I'll play Zach Hertz over K. Dodden and Dalton Schultz this week. Okay. Ertz is ranked as Titan 16 in half Dupr score. So you are above consensus.

Starting point is 00:08:47 You also sounds like you're above consensus on Rodriguez. Chris Rodriguez is RB 42. Yeah. So his ranking versus Bill is. wrong this week. Like he was, he left the game with an injury and Bill was benched. Like in the first half of that game, Chris Rodriguez played almost 70% of the snap. So ECR has it wrong. Bill is above Chris Rodriguez and that it should be flipped. Like in my rankings, I have them flip. Am I wrong? Fancy? Maybe not. I mean, the shoulder injury for Rodriguez is sort of the wild card. But he's practicing

Starting point is 00:09:19 in full. He's practicing in full. I know. ECR has been wrong on Bill for a month. at this point. I mean, he is not top six fantasy points in half PPR scoring since week five. He hasn't gotten double digits more. That week five is the only time since week one. He's been in double digits. I don't understand why he continues to be ranked. I mean,

Starting point is 00:09:39 it's starting to drop a little, but he's still inside the top 36 of the position. I get Miami's is a nice matchup, but especially with the emergence of Rodriguez, and it's the fact that it's not going to be a high scoring offense in general. I mean, I've been fading cross-key merit. I feel like, like I said, for months at this point. Fitz, who's the player in this game?

Starting point is 00:09:56 again, besides Waddle and H.N., obviously, that you'd be most interested in starting. Yeah, I kind of don't want to play any of the commanders running backs because there is still ambiguity. And the Miami run defense has actually been better lately. It was a train wreck in the first part of the season. But they kept Bejohn Robinson and James Cook under wraps in recent weeks. So I really don't want to play Debo if I don't have to. Like Marcus Mariotta started four games for the commanders. had 11 receiving yards in two of those games. The other two were okay, six for 72 in a touchdown,

Starting point is 00:10:32 four for 29 in a touchdown, but we've seen the floor is pretty low. So, you know what? I mean, I would be willing to play either of these quarterbacks in a pinch. I've got Marietta QB 13 to a QB 15. Marriotas four starts this season, QB6, QB 17, QB 19, QB 13. So, Not bad. He offers some rushing value, and the dolphins have given up the ninth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. It's Tua who has a really appealing matchup here. Like the commanders are 30th in defensive EPA per play. They have the worst opponent pass a rating in the league. They're giving up 8.9 yards per pass attempt. No one else is giving up more than 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The past D has just been atrocious. And two has been pretty good over his last three games. Sixty nine percent of his pass. is completed, 7.3 yards per attempt.

Starting point is 00:11:29 The only thing is that I, the dolphins are favored in this game and in Dolphins wins this year, Tua's not thrown more than 26 passes in any of them. Like they, they want to run the ball if they can. I mean, maybe there's just recency bias. I feel like Washington might actually be a worse pass defense than the Bengals. Just like the last couple of games, they've been non-competitive on the field. It's been so bad. Marriota is ranked several spots higher than Tua in ECR.

Starting point is 00:12:00 D, bro, do you see them as close? Or would you maybe make the case for Tua ahead of them? I see them as close. I think with the rushing equity that Marietta has, I would rather lean with Marietta. But I think there's actually a lot of really interesting QB2s this week. Like, you could talk me into Gino Smith, Davis Mills, a lot of different guys that have good matchups and stuff that could pop off.

Starting point is 00:12:25 So like I don't, I think once you get past about QB. 9 or 10, there's just a long tier of guys. You can make your case for your guys at that point. Do you like Gino more than Tua? I do only because to your point, Fidsey, I don't have a problem with Gino's volume and Dallas is going to push the Raiders. I'm like, I have a better vibe about Gino's volume in that game and Dallas putting the Raiders in catch up mode. they're going to have to pass. The point about pushing them is a good one.

Starting point is 00:12:58 But I just, I worry that the Raiders' offensive line might be pretty close to non-functional. And we sort of saw that with the protection of Gene Oval. That's fair. I mean, the only counterpoint that I can offer with that is Dallas's pass rush is kind of same thing. It's like basically weakness versus weakness. They did add, you know,

Starting point is 00:13:16 to the defensive line. So we'll see how much of an impact that has here in the, you know, coming out of the buy. All right. Let's go to game number two here in the regular early slate. Panthers at Falcons, this is a rematch of a game we saw back in, I believe, week three. The Panthers defense shut out the Falcons in a 30 to nothing win that week. It was one of the most surprising games of the season. So, Fitz, I'll start with you.

Starting point is 00:13:39 Can the defense limit this offense again, or are you expecting, like obviously you're not expecting a shutout, but like generally will it limit it again or are you expecting a much better output from Atlanta's stars? I mean, Bejohn Robinson is certainly due to snap out. of this little mini funk he has been in. First seven weeks of the season, Bijan average 21.7 half point PPR fantasy points per game. Over the last three weeks, nine point two fantasy points per game, which has been worse than Kamani Vidal and Kyle Menangai and some other, you know, not exactly superstar running backs. So first time against the Panthers, solid game for Bijon, obviously, no touchdowns in a shutout, but 13 carries for 72 yards. five catches for 39. And the Panthers run defense, which got off to a pretty good start this season,

Starting point is 00:14:29 seems to be crumbling a little bit. James Cook destroyed Carolina a few weeks ago, 216 rushing yards, two touchdowns. And last time we saw the Panthers, creaky old Alvin Camara, had his best rushing game of the season. So yeah, I like Bijon this week. And how can you not feel good about Drake London? He's been on an absolute tear. Five touchdowns in his last five games over 100 yards and four of those five games. He had five for 55 against Carolina the first time around. I think he'll fare better this time. Debra.

Starting point is 00:15:03 I think Atlanta wins this game. And I think the offense looks a lot better. And to Fitsy's point, yeah, Carolina's run defense is taking a step back. Like, over the last, since week six, they've allowed the sixth highest shorts per carry to zone runs at 4.62. Bejohn Robinson, 75% of his runs have been on zone concepts this year. So wheels up for him and Drake one and like, and this is basically the entire Atlanta Falcons passing offense. Well, offense just in general,

Starting point is 00:15:30 but I do think that Kyle Pitts also has a really strong game in this one. But Atlanta, I think they roll, man. Like this at home and they're only getting three and a half, I think they cover that and I think they win. I was going to ask about Pitts because Carolina has this reputation as being really poor against tight end. They are. You know, deservedly so for the most part. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:15:50 But Kyle Pitts back in that week three game, just four catches for 39 yards. You might think, oh, it's Kyle Piv. That's actually a good day for him. It's one of his lower days of the year. It's not that, you know, out of line with a lot of his fantasy output this season. But it's not like it was towards his best day either. So they did limit him, you know, the way they limited everybody else. What about Pennix?

Starting point is 00:16:09 We just talked about some of these other quarterbacks like Marietta and Tua, you know, is he somebody that like in a pinch you're considering Dibro? I'm not only because, to Fitsy's point, I think. this is the big bounce back week for Bijon Robinson. He has zero touchdowns in his last three games. You want to talk about a massive touchdown regression candidate, like where everybody's like, oh, the Carolina run defense and blah, blah, blah, and then Bejohn drops three touchdowns on him. I think this is the regression spot. Fitz, what do you think about Pennix? Super flex. I've got them like RB25. And I'm pretty pro Pennix, but it's just, yeah, I mean,

Starting point is 00:16:49 it's just, I think it's maybe a run-heavy spot for the Falcons. I'm with you, Fancy. I got to make QB 24 or two, so we're kind of handholding there. Do you have, by the way, guys, Bejohn as RB1 this week with Jonathan Taylor out or you go to CMC or E-N? No, got to go McAfree. Yeah, I got McAfee. I got Bejohn at RB2, but I think there's a really interesting, like, top four running backs

Starting point is 00:17:11 of the week. Like, you could make a case for Bejohn, CMC, Josh Jacobs as like all of those guys. H-N. Oh, yeah, A-chan. Sorry, sorry, sorry, A-Chane. I have at RB3. So yes, yes, A-chan. Yes, too. Excuse me, sorry, Fancy.

Starting point is 00:17:24 I'm mad, I'm at. All right, let's go to game number three here. Buccaneers at Bills. I couldn't quite land on what I thought was like the perfect question for this. So I want to kind of fall back on what I do and I can't come up with a good question, which is have you guys pick one player in this game whose consensus ranking is too low and one player in this game whose consensus ranking for this week is too high. Fitz will start with you.

Starting point is 00:17:47 I think Baker Mayfield is maybe a, a tad too low. I'm two spots above consensus on Baker. ECR likes Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams more. Those guys have really tough matchups. I mean, Stafford has to face Seattle. Their defense has just been outstanding. Caleb has to play the Vikings on the road in U.S. Bank Stadium, a really tough venue for opposing quarterbacks. I realize the Bills D has been pretty stingy to QBs and fantasy this year, but I like Baker Mayfield's outlook now that his offensive line is totally healthy. And I think Josh Allen and the

Starting point is 00:18:20 bills can push Baker and no shootout type of game. So too high. I feel like ECR always seems a little too high on Khalil Shakir, who I like a lot, but the ceiling is pretty low, has not had a 90-yard game this season, let alone on 100-yard game. Shakir has three touchdowns, but only one since week four. ECR has a wide receiver 29. I'm just a little bit lower than that.

Starting point is 00:18:45 Is Shakir going to play this week, guys? That's a real question I was going to ask you, Fetzy, like, anchor. and ribs, he's been limited non-contact jerseys. Like, I think he probably goes, but it's up in the air. Yeah. I mean, even if, you know, setting injury aside, Shakur is somebody that I've been confused by his ranking in past weeks where it's just like, I just don't think the ceiling's there, like, to your point fits.

Starting point is 00:19:09 Are they playing tool on fantasy pros. com gives Shakira an 89% chance to play based on the practice supports and everything. So keep an eye on that for sure on Friday. We're taping this Friday morning. See what the Friday practice report looks like. if that changes, but right now we're projecting him to play. I think, like, most weeks you could just, like, kind of, you know, blindfold, throw a dart and say, like, you know what, I'm just going to throw a Killal Shakur's name out there

Starting point is 00:19:35 is ranked too high this week, and you've probably been right. Again, it's, you know, good player with a bit of a floor, but, like, that ceiling is just not there. So I'm with you there. Debrer, what do you think about what Fitz said on the quarterbacks? Do you agree with Baker is maybe, like, should be higher than, like, a Stafford or a Caleb? of yeah i agree with baker i think the only thing that like if bucky plays this week and they're able to kind of lean on the run game that's the only worry because the bills you can always run

Starting point is 00:20:00 on the freaking bills that's been true of the last like two or three seasons um the consistent drum that i've been beating and i'll continue to be here is keon coleman like in eCR i never understand like to fitzies point about colila shakir why is keon coleman like i know that he had had the the outlier game last week if you look at his game logs it's been pitiful since week two. And like since week two, wide receiver 71 in fantasy points per game, but he's like ECR,

Starting point is 00:20:28 a white receiver. Every single week, he's like a wide receiver four. There's just other guys. I would much rather play Ricky on Coleman weekly, like matchup for perimeter wide receivers is good versus Tampa, but again, I have no faith.

Starting point is 00:20:42 The guy I wanted to bring up here and this is, I'm not saying that I don't have him as my QB1, just like everybody else. I think there's an interesting conversation. around Josh Allen. Like, Khalil Shakir is banged up. Dalton Kincaid is not going to play.

Starting point is 00:20:56 He's got the hamstring issue. Keon Coleman hasn't been doing anything. The last five, since week five, Josh Allen, QB12, QB17, QB9, QB3, QB8. But an ECR is QB1 with a bullet every single week? Like, is Josh Allen a little bit too high? I just want to have the conversation, guys.

Starting point is 00:21:16 I'm not saying that I don't have him like buried in my ranks or anything like that. I'm not insane. But are we still a little bit too high on Josh Allen? The week you fade, Josh Allen is for 60 yards and three touchdowns. Yeah. Like the rushing is always that wild kind, especially since he scores so many rushing touchdowns. And here's the interesting thing. Like I get what you're saying, D. Bro, there is this fair perception that the bills don't have much of a downfield passing game this year.

Starting point is 00:21:44 But what's kind of crazy is that, I mean, I suppose this has to, something to do. with the shorter passing game. But Josh Allen, currently over 70% completion percentage, he's never done that in his career. Currently, he's averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt, which would go down as the highest mark of his career, which you would not think would be the case for a guy who is not doing much business deep downfield. I agree with that. If you would have asked me what his yards per attempt were, I would have guessed high,

Starting point is 00:22:13 sixes, low sevens. Wouldn't have been there. Yeah, if you look at just like the number of attempts, you know, week one, he's, He had 46, obviously. But, you know, 25 in week two, 28 in week three, 22 in week four, 31, 26, 19, 26. Like, he's only been over 30 three times this season. And one of them was, he was at 31. So it's the game against Baltimore and the game against Miami where, you know,

Starting point is 00:22:37 they were trailing in those games, obviously. And the rest has been just not throwing a lot. This game against Miami last week was his first 300-yard passing game since week one. He just didn't, you know, have any rushing touchdowns in this one. And so it didn't, you know, ultimately end up being this huge high-ceiling day. That's a pretty high-level game manager you've got there at quarterback for Buffalo. But, you know, Baker, you know, has been really good at times this season. Like, this could be the type of offense that pushes them to your guys' point about Baker being a little low.

Starting point is 00:23:06 And therefore, it becomes something close to a shootout and a big Allen day. I was telling you, D. Bro, before the show that I have to pick between Allen and Hertz and a guillotine league. I have both. And you were saying that you would actually go with Hertz over Allen. That's the player hurts. Yeah, what do you think about that fits between those two? I'm still team Allen. Alan does feel like one of those guys where it's like, just don't overthink it.

Starting point is 00:23:28 Like just again, if I got eliminated in this league because I sat Allen and this is the week, he has 350 and then another 80 on the ground. Like that I'm just playing into the total. And I think that, you know, the Lions and Eagles offer more shootout potential than probably this game. But maybe I'm wrong with that. To your point, though, Worm, are we too low on a Mexican? Abuka this week. Like, honestly,

Starting point is 00:23:51 like he's wide receiver 9 in ECR. The matchup is fantastic. Buffalo runs a crap ton of too high, versus too high. And Emeka Ibuka splits single versus too high have been massive. That's what you've seen some of the volatility based off a coverage matchups and his weekly performances. Dude versus too high amongst all white receivers,

Starting point is 00:24:11 at least 75 routes. Emeka Ibuka is fifth in yards per route run and ninth in fantasy points per route run. So like, should he be closer to being a top five wide receiver this week? I mean, maybe like obviously he got hurt in week six, so throw that one out, week seven. Like I know he got 12 targets, but like he was very likely not going to play most of that week going into that Detroit game. And then he ended up doing it anyway. But like I think you can kind of throw that out, like not knowing exactly how healthy he was.

Starting point is 00:24:38 So besides those two games, he has been a top eight wide receiver more often than he hasn't in. Like he's played this season. Like him versus Justin Jefferson. who's right ahead of him in ECR, I would easily take a mecca this week. Like, am I crazy here? I don't think you're crazy. We actually are going to get to Justin Jefferson during that Vikings game, which, and I think he's a really interesting conversation.

Starting point is 00:25:01 Like long term, there's a lot of talk about him as a great buy low right now this week. I mean, I know the bears have a bad defense. We'll get to that one. But I think that's actually really good head to head. Let's table that for the Vikings conversation. Before we to the next game, today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor hard rock bet if you're listening to this podcast you're probably deep in the stats injury reports and matchups put your fantasy football knowledge to the test on hard rock bet try your first bet on hard rock bet today

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Starting point is 00:26:43 We just contributed to it. people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember.

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Starting point is 00:28:00 Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. one ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrat as part of the Mike Cultura podcast network

Starting point is 00:28:26 available on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. and finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game.

Starting point is 00:28:46 His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid.

Starting point is 00:29:04 He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stopped by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball.

Starting point is 00:29:21 Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Next game here, guys, Chargers at Jaguars. Kamani Vidal has alternated. from RB 8 to RB 33 to RB 7 to RB 44 to RB8 in the last five weeks.

Starting point is 00:29:46 Very much alternating. I believe Jake on yesterday's show said it was like the even year San Francisco Giants winning the World Series every other year. That's what it's felt like with Vidal. So I ask you guys, is week 11 going to be another top eight positional finish or is it going to be another week outside the top 30 continuing this pattern fits? Maybe this is the week we get a middling game out of Kamani Vidal because on one hand, the Jaguars are easier to throw on than to run on.

Starting point is 00:30:13 Their past defense is 20th in DVOA, run defense 12th in DVOA. The Jaguars have held six of their nine opponents this season under 100 total rushing yards. And meanwhile, their past defense has allowed the second most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They just gave up 292 yards and two touchdowns to Davis Mills. On the other hand, the chargers need offensive balance. Like, it's great that Greg Roman has thrown a willing.

Starting point is 00:30:39 us to go pass heavy. I think they ranked second in pass rate over expected this year. But the Chargers' offensive line is just kind of a mess without Joe Alt. And the Steelers got pressure on Justin Herbert on over 40% of his dropbacks last week. Like that's a problem. You have to protect Justin Herbert. You have to run the ball to keep the Jaguars pass rushers from cutting it loose and going after Herbert all the time. So I think Vidal gets a good number of carries this week. I just don't know if he's going to be all that efficient against a pretty good run defense. Just quickly, I want to mention you because we've just wrapped up that conversation, actually like four minutes ago.

Starting point is 00:31:18 One of the Bill's beat reporters tweeted that Khalil Shakir heading in the right direction and should be in a good spot for the game according to Sean McDermott. Also, Kincaid is officially out, but I think we were kind of expecting that. Yeah, so Vidal is ranked kind of in that middling range in ECR. He's RB18 right now. Not that that's middling. That's ranked as a starter, but just compared to kind of. of this like alternating between top eight and outside the top 30 relative to that.

Starting point is 00:31:43 It's kind of middling. Debrough, what do you think about what Fitz was saying about, you know, I mean, the Chargers passing game in general, like I was really nervous about them against Pittsburgh because of the Pittsburgh pass rush and the state of this offensive line. Obviously, the Chargers win that game very handedly. But I think it's something that is like, it's still fair to be nervous about that going forward, even though it didn't limit them so much in that game. And Vidal obviously had a great game in that week.

Starting point is 00:32:08 So what do you expect? out of this game in general, and is this going to be a game where Vidal gets a chance to shine? I think, and to Fitsy's point, this is a horrible matchup for him on the ground, but I think like kind of like last week, volume wins the day. Like, I think the Chargers win this game. I think Trevor Lawrence struggles in this game against the Chargers past defense. The only saving grace for the Jaguars to move the ball, I think it's a big game, or at least a big opportunity for Travis ETN. Like, if they can keep it neutral, ETN should be able to just chew the chargers up on the ground. Now, in this game with Vidal, I think you get closer to the spike

Starting point is 00:32:44 week potential. Like I'm with Fitsy. Like I think it's more of a middling. Like if you're playing the median here, but if I got to pick one side of the aisle to be on, I'd be more pro Kamani Vidal. The matchup is horrible. But I think what you've seen in the games where he has had the spike weeks, it's the chargers get up and they're able to just kind of feed him carries and he gets there based off of volume and he gets in the end zone once or twice, that's probably where I'll leave him with Kamani Vidal, because I think the Chargers can run away with this game. If Trevor Lawrence, who has not been good, like guys, like versus too high coverage right now amongst 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he's 26th and fantasy points per dropback. I, and the Chargers past defense has been

Starting point is 00:33:26 really, really good. I think he could struggle and they could struggle to move the ball consistently with him. Sorry, did you say, where do you have him ranked? Oh, Trevor Lawrence, it's going to be basement level. I'm pulling them up right now. QB 26. I actually met Vidal, but I was, you know, once you said Lwianne's going to secure. No one's starting Trevor Lawrence. Nobody's starting Trevor.

Starting point is 00:33:48 Kamani Vidal I've got at RB20. Like I'm in kind of a, there's a very interesting conversation of him versus Quinn Sean Jethkins versus Woody Marks. kind of in that area code. 20 for me also. 20 for you also. Okay. All right.

Starting point is 00:34:09 Let's go to that Bears at Vikings game that we alluded to earlier talking about Justin Jefferson. JJ McCarthy had the most passing yards of his career last week, but it didn't really help fantasy managers in terms of the receivers because exactly half of them went to Jalen Naylor, who nobody was starting. So I want to ask about the two guys that people would be starting, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Where are you guys ranking both of these players coming off games where they both receives at least 11 targets and they both finished with under 40 yards? D. Brough, I'll start with you. I know you've been a big fan of J.J. McCarthy throughout. Yeah, I think this is a good game for J.J. McCarthy.

Starting point is 00:34:42 Like, the Bears past defense has been just an utter mess. I'm a little bit, I'm looking for Addison. I've got Addison at wide receiver 34. I've got Jefferson at wide receiver 10, kind of just splitting hairs between him and a bunch of other top guys like Emeka, Bucke, I have above, above him. him. I have Jalen Waddle ahead of him. I got Amunra right ahead of him, but I think like him versus Nico Collins is a very interesting conversation. Addison, it just comes down to the coverage structure. Like, Addison versus single high has not been great this year. Like, he has big,

Starting point is 00:35:15 big splits. Too high, he gets more of his usage, single high. His target per route run rate has dropped the 15% with 1.4 yards per route run. So not that in on Addison. But JJ, like, I think this is a bounce back game for JJ McCarthy and Justin Jefferson. Like the Bears past defense has been terrible and Jefferson has been good versus a single high this year. I find myself very nervous about starting anybody in this passing game just, you know, from what J.G. McCarthy has looked like. He's obviously made very good plays sprinkled throughout these games.

Starting point is 00:35:50 He has these flashes where you're like, holy cow, like he can really spin it. This is a really impressive play. But like obviously, like I watched that game very close. against the ravens and he just sailed so many passes. I felt like the I felt like the first interception really rattled him, at least in terms of how he threw it. I mean, mentally maybe it didn't. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:36:09 He doesn't seem like that type of player, but like I felt like just in terms of the throws he was making and his willingness to you know, just to put up the ball. I thought it was a really poor game from him and I'm not saying he can't get better, but right now, I'm pretty terrified to start Addison. And Jefferson, like obviously you're not going to sit him, but I'm pretty terrified to rank him, rank him highly, even against the Bears' defense. That's so bad.

Starting point is 00:36:32 I just, I feel like I need to see more on McCarthy to have a degree of confidence there. Fitz, I know there's something that you and I talked a little bit about yesterday. How are you feeling about this matchup? Yeah, I agree with Debrough that it's a really good spot for J.J. McCarthy, although I would urge Debrough not to skate any victory laps with the Stanley Cup high above his head if J.J. McCarthy is a good game because he has been terrible to this point. Like, they're just terrible. Like, he has made a few big-time throws, and, like, he can really rip some impressive throws at times, but I don't know how many times he's thrown balls directly into the outstretched arms of defensive linemen this season. You talked about his tendency to sail

Starting point is 00:37:11 throws. He's getting a little panicky in the pockets. But the bears, like, they're giving up 22.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, third most. They have been playing without their two best cornerbacks, Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon for most of the season. Those guys are on IR. They're not coming back this week. But right now, Jefferson in four games with McCarthy, 17 catches for 209 yards, two touchdowns. That's like just over 52 yards a game. But I am a little above consensus on both Jefferson and Addison Debrough. I do have Jefferson ranked ahead of Ameca at Bucca this week. Like, I just think he can victim. a secondary that has no one who can cover him.

Starting point is 00:37:58 That's fair. Like, yeah, Tyreek Stevenson on Justin Jefferson. That screams 180 yard day to me. Yeah. If McCarthy can have a competent game. Debrough, did you feel like, like, again, I watched that game very closely on Sunday, obviously. I felt like it was the worst game I've ever watched Justin Jefferson played. Not even talking about the quarterback performance.

Starting point is 00:38:19 I thought he was awful. And it was really confusing. It was like, I was like, is he fighting through an injury I wasn't aware of? Is there some like off field mental thing on it? Like it looked like the Marlon Humphrey interception where he barely moved. It was like Jefferson made no. Did the same thing on the other pick too. He did the same thing in the pick.

Starting point is 00:38:35 Neither interception. That's, dude, that's, super weird. That's the thing. And I know everybody's going to think this is all copium. I'm just dealing with like trying to cape up for JJ.

Starting point is 00:38:45 There were three plays in that game that were all centered around Justin Jefferson that could have swung the stat line for both of those players, both JJ's in that game. both of the picks to Justin Jefferson and the bang, bang, play for the touchdown that Jefferson dropped. And I understand it was a tight window throw. I understand he got hit right after he got it.

Starting point is 00:39:05 If he makes two of those three plays, and that's the biggest problem where I have, where it's like people looking at the box score and saying he completed less than 50% of his passes, he had two picks. He was just god awful. It's like that game could have swung very differently. And I felt like the vibes around Justin Jefferson.

Starting point is 00:39:23 And I don't know what's going on with all of that. But the vibes around Justin Jefferson, him loafing after the both those picks and just being like, I don't care. I'm not running. Whatever. I don't know what's going on there. But I'm with you guys. I just think context matters. And this is just like I could blanket this with all quarterback interceptions where people look at the box scores and they say, ah, that quarterback had a terrible game.

Starting point is 00:39:46 And when you watch the game, it's like not all interceptions are created equal. And some of those are on the quarterback. And some of those are also on the wide receiver. too. Yeah. And by the way, can I can I just say like we we should give like J.J. McCarthy a little grace. It's been for NFL starts. Nobody will do that. Bitsy. Nobody, everybody won't hate the guy. That's just how it is. Any negativity I have on McCarthy is like, oh, for right now I'm nervous about starting these receivers. I am not at all writing him off like long term. He's made five starts. That's nothing. Yeah. And everybody wants to bury him like he's terrible. I think one of the,

Starting point is 00:40:18 the narratives, and I'm sure this will get talked about going up to Sunday, is J.J. versus Caleb. And I that is, and honestly, both of their career arcs have been very, very interesting and how both of them play in this game. It's very, very interesting. I'm going to be glued to this game. Caleb's turned the corner. His offensive line has been healthier and better, I think you could say. He's at a run game he can lean on. We can't say that for Minnesota, too, you know?

Starting point is 00:40:44 True. There was a really interesting conversation on the athletic football show with Robert Mays and Derek Klasson this week, and they were talking about how Caleb is actually does, play similarly to JJ in terms of they don't neither them really has that true like rhythm in the in the pocket yet but it's like Caleb is like the more physically talented version of JJ so it just looks a little different with with some of the armed talent and things like my problem with what kOC has done to this point there's not a lot of easy button things that he's doing too like i i feel like and this is again not me kabe verge you don't see a lot of screen passes in this offense right now it's a lot of like five step drops grip it rip it a lot of like deep overrouts and stuff like where it's

Starting point is 00:41:26 like dude like some of these easy button throws like last week a few screens to justin jefferson okay why don't why don't we do that a little bit more why is tj hawkinson just like absent from the passing game man yeah the other thing i would say before we move off this game is like you know for as much as we talk about like if jj's being inconsistent can still make good plays but like it's not there every time you don't need that many good plays for somebody like juffin just Jefferson if he's right to take advantage to have a good day. Like if McCarthy makes six good throws in this game and 20 bad ones, which I'm not saying it'll be that ratio.

Starting point is 00:41:58 But if that happens, if four of those six throws are great throws to Jefferson down the field against the secondary, that can still be a really good day. It was funny after we taped yesterday, Fitz and I were talking a bit. And Fitz said, I don't think Jason, Justin Jefferson didn't look like one of the three best receivers in football in that game against the Ravens. And I was like, I don't think he looked like one of the three best receivers in Minnesota in that game. Like it was really shocking to me how poor he looked.

Starting point is 00:42:23 I cannot remember him ever looked like that before. So hopefully just a one-off and it gets better against, again, a really poor secondary and beat up secondary in the Bears. Let's go to the next game here. Packers at Giants, DeBrow, new coach and a new starting quarterback for the Giants this week. It'll be Mike Kafka and James Winston. How do their changes impact your interest in their players for fantasy purposes against the Packers? Talking about guys like Darius Slate and Wondale Robinson, Tyrone Tracey.

Starting point is 00:42:49 It's not a ton. I mean, I just, it's not a great matchup for the Giants. I think the if you want to talk about the changes and James versus because of James versus Russ in this game. One, I don't think Darius Slaten plays in this game. The hamstring issue, I do think holds him out. I think it just with the quarterback change because dude, Russ has been horrible this year, horrible. Outside of like the game against the Cowboys where everybody's like, oh, see. Good Russ.

Starting point is 00:43:20 Dude, he's been God awful. I would say the quarterback change and I guess me feeling a little more optimism about anybody in the Giants' offense would probably be for Theo Johnson. Because Russell Wilson does not access the middle of the field. He does not see the middle of the field. He will not utilize the middle of the field. So looking at a player that's going to use like a lot of schemed up touches, middle of the field routes, Theo Johnson's probably the guy that I feel a little bit better about in this game, especially against the Packers,

Starting point is 00:43:49 have given up the ninth most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends. But outside of that, I don't feel great about the Giants. This is one of those games where like, you talk about the Packers need a get right game where they can like really try to put the pedal to the metal and put up like 30 and like walk out of this game

Starting point is 00:44:05 and be like, hey, look, our offense is humming. We look a lot better. Like this is the opportunity for them to kind of do that. Fitz, what do you think? Yeah, I mean, I'm fascinated by what we're going to see out of James. He could absolutely, this could be a Micah Parsons three-sack game. It could be a four-interception game for James.

Starting point is 00:44:29 We know James wants to push the ball downfield. He is a hyper-aggressive downfield thrower who will try to make hero throws into tight coverage without hesitation. And we saw this in the Browns. The seven starts James made for the Browns last year. average 291.1 passing yards per game with 12 interceptions in those seven starts. He was quarterback 10 in fantasy points per game over that stretch. That included a 36 point game and a 2.6 point game. So high ceiling, low floor for James, place your bats.

Starting point is 00:45:03 And, you know, how can we forget James' final season with the Buccaneers in 2019 when he had a league high, 5,109 passing yards and a league high 30 intercept. So the prop on James's passing yardage is something like 227.5. I already bet the over, even though we don't know if Slayton is going to play in right now, is he going to start? Tool 8% on Slayton, so probably not. But I think Wondale, Robinson probably has a big game. Theo Johnson could have a nice game. We could see some rando like Jalen Hyatt have a big game for the Giants.

Starting point is 00:45:40 But, you know, again, we could also see James throw four interceptions. You can let autopilot manage your fantasy football lineup automatically, so you never have to worry about last minute changes. Auto swap inactive players and ensure your lineup is always optimized even when you can't be online. Take control with the flexibility to approve lineup changes via email or let autopilot handle everything. Stay ahead with My Playbook Autopilot. Available now for FantasyPro's premium subscribers at Fantasypros.com slash my playbook or on the Fantasy Pro's app. Next game here, guys, another rematch Bengals at Steelers. Obviously, this was a very fun game.

Starting point is 00:46:16 The first time we all remember the incredible Thursday night matchup between these two. That was back in week seven. Pretty much every player in the game had one of their best fantasy days of this season. D.K. Metcalf is the only one he didn't. And his day wasn't awful. It just wasn't one of the best, like pretty much everybody else was. So are you guys expecting more fireworks in this rematch? Or, you know, Steelers coming off a bad game.

Starting point is 00:46:35 Joe Flacco has been great, but is older. Like, are you expecting maybe a bit of a comeback to Earth performance? here at Debrough? No, I think it's fireworks. I think it's fireworks for everybody in this game, like a lot of really interesting flex options like Calvin Austin. I think Jalen Warren has a big game in this one. I think it's fireworks for everybody except for you talked about D.K. Mecca, I found a quiet game. I think he has another quiet game. DJ Turner, I think shadows him in this game. Turner followed him on 78% of his routes held him to two catches and 45 scoreless receiving arts. So I think there's a lot of intrigue and I know a lot of people are going to

Starting point is 00:47:13 talk themselves into Steelers tight ends. Just don't do that to yourself this week. I was going to ask. Firemooth 111 yards to touchdowns. None. Back to the well. None. One of them is going off. You just don't know what. Yeah. Darno Washington, two toddies coming in. Fitts, what do you think? I mean, on the, on the Bengals side, it's pretty easy. Like obviously Chase and Higgins were excited about. and, you know, Chase Brown had 108 rushing yards. He didn't get in the end zone, but he had over 100 yards the last time against the Steelers. On the Steelers side, you know, where do you think the ball's going here? Yeah.

Starting point is 00:47:47 Jalen Warren, probably a lot. And sort of an equal opportunity. Again, I do think there's going to be a Steelers tight end who goes off. I agree with Debrough on D.K. Metcalfe. I've already bet the under on his receiving yardage, which I want to say was like at 54.5 yards. Was that at Debrough? Yeah, but like the Steelers had a hard time moving the ball against the Chargers. They will not have as hard a time against a Bengals defense that ranks dead last and defensive DVOA and dead last and defensive EPA per play.

Starting point is 00:48:18 And meanwhile, the Bengals averaging 32.8 points a game and Joe Flacco's four starts and their last three games, 33, 38 and 42 points. So more fireworks. Fancy, real fast, where are you ranking Chase Brown? because Samaji Piron maybe being out of this game, I want to be above consensus on him because I think that he's the guy that could pop off for maybe a bigger game than people are anticipating. 15.

Starting point is 00:48:45 Okay, that's exactly where I'm at. Like, I struggle with him versus, like, Kyran and a horrible matchup. And yeah, that's exactly where I'm at right now, too. He's 13th in ECR. The two names behind him are Kyran and Derek Henry. Dang it. I'm going to have to move him up a little bit.

Starting point is 00:49:03 I was going to ask which octogenarian quarterback you guys liked better, but it looks like you both have flaco inside the top. I mean, Rogers is inside the top 15, so it's not like he's ranked lowly, but you guys both have flaco. Every week flaco is ranked as like a low end QB1 by QB2. He's QB1 in fantasy scoring since he came to Cincinnati. Yes.

Starting point is 00:49:26 I love that you pointed that out, Fancy, because I wrote that up in the primer, and I was actually surprised when I found it since week six, QB1 in fantasy points per game. It's volume, dude. 43.8 pass attempts a game. He's not going anywhere. He's been QB 15, QB6, QB7, QB2.

Starting point is 00:49:43 He should be a top 10 QB this week. Easy. And the game against Pittsburgh last time, that was the QB6 game. Yeah, obviously coming off the buy here. So since he's older, maybe that by week, you know, gets to rest up and come back even hotter now. You get resting those old bones. just a super fun story watching Flacco this season, honestly. It's really, like seven years ago, I would have told you I thought his career was basically done.

Starting point is 00:50:09 And now here he is like QB1 over a month-long stretch. Pretty great. Let's go to Texans at Titans yet. This is rematch week, really. This is yet another game we've seen already this year. The Texans shut out the Titans the last time these two played. Hico Collins was great last week. Davis Mills targeted him a whopping 15 times.

Starting point is 00:50:27 And Davis Mills will be starting again this week. but the Jags are a great matchup for Nico, his two best games of the season by a mile, both have come against Jacksonville. So I'm wondering what you guys expect from him this week out of Tennessee, D-Bro. Wide receiver 11 right now, my rankings. The matchup is really good. Like since week six, the Titans can't cover perimeter wide receivers, fifth-most receiving yards per game, second-most PPR points per target.

Starting point is 00:50:50 My only hesitance with Nico is in this game, how much does Houston have to throw the ball? because Tennessee's not going to push them. Like if Houston gets like two defensive touchdowns, like a defensive touchdown and Woody Marks rumbles for like one or two in the game, the game could just be like, forget it, we're going to shove the passing game, and we're just bleeding the clock and we're out of here.

Starting point is 00:51:13 That's the only worry that I have about Nico Collins. It's not the matchup. It's what is his floor and ceiling with volume and what does that look like? Because I don't think Tennessee can push them at all. Fits? feel the same way. I have Nico, a wide receiver 11.

Starting point is 00:51:31 I feel like it's kind of an obvious ranking because there's like a tier there. He's at the bottom of that tier. And then I think there's a bit of a drop off to wide receiver 12 after him. And like Debrose said, Tennessee does not have an outside cornerback who can hang with Nico.

Starting point is 00:51:46 But I think the Texans would probably love it if they could have Davis Mills throw 25 passes. Yep. Yeah. He's 10th in ECR, by the way. Waddle, I'm assuming you have a head. of him that's he's he's right behind him i do i waddle once okay yeah what waddle's 11th so um that's the one that is different from you and and consensus but yeah in that back end of that kind of tier of guys

Starting point is 00:52:09 there um i mean would you d bro just given what we talked about like have any consideration like nico versus justin jefferson i've got jason jefferson one spot ahead of him um and i i guess uh to kind of flip this a little bit where are you at on what he marks this week fancy because I think if we're talking about the air getting taken out of the ball, I think this is another big Woody Marks game. And he had 80% of the freaking snaps last week. Like he's the player that I'm like, okay, well, if I'm down on Nico, pretty freaking high on Woody Marks.

Starting point is 00:52:40 Running back 21 just because I'm not sure it's another, you know, six to one ratio with touches and snaps for Woody and Chubb. I got him at RB 18. But I mean, I think the conversation kind of starts around that Chase Brown tier, like RB 14, 15. somewhere in there. Let's get to the late afternoon slate. We'll go a bit quicker on these because we went pretty long on the early slate here.

Starting point is 00:53:05 49ers at Cardinals first game with Marvin Harrison Jr. missing the game. Obviously, Tray McBride is going to get all of the targets. But there's only so many passes that can be thrown the way of one player. So besides McBride, is there anybody else in this passing game worth considering in fantasy fits with Marvin Harrison Jr. out? I have Michael Wilson ranked wide receiver 39. there's just nothing to suggest Michael Wilson is actually good.

Starting point is 00:53:29 1.09 yards per route run for his career. That's a really bad number. But would it be a shock if Michael Wilson got 10 or 12 targets this week? Fantasy pros hasn't projected for 3.8 catches, 46 yards, 8.1, half point PPR fantasy points. I think that's a little conservative, just given the likelihood that he sees a target bump. So I think the projections should maybe be closer to 10,

Starting point is 00:53:53 half point PPR fantasy points. I think he's at least flex worthy. Debra. I don't want to start anybody outside of Trade McBride. I just, and to Vitsy's point, but yeah, like,

Starting point is 00:54:04 I think it's volume that we're talking about with Michael Wilson. The other thing about it is like, San Francisco's past defense has not been good overall. Like they can't pressure the quarterback. They give up a ton to slot wide receivers. I wanted to ride up Greg Dorch, but the problem is that, I mean,

Starting point is 00:54:18 Arizona kind of plays into the 49ers hands here in the sense that like they have the 11th, lowest 11 personnel rate. Like they're not going to run out like a slot receiver a ton. And to Wilson, like the matchups just not great, man. Like since week six, 49ers, 13 fewest PPR points per targets outside wide receivers, six fewest receiving yards per game. I'm with Fitsy on that he gets a volume bump.

Starting point is 00:54:40 But also I'm with Fitsy on that I don't think he's very good. So I don't know if he does anything with it. If you want a chance to win a Justin Jefferson signed Vikings jersey for free, courtesy of our friends at pristineauction.com. All you need to do is head to fantasypros.com slash contest, complete the form, and either download the Fantasy Pros app, leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on X, Instagram, or TikTok at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive.

Starting point is 00:55:06 We will be announcing a winner on the podcast near the beginning of next month. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Let's go to the game of the week here, Seahawks at Rams. This game absolutely rips. It's featuring the top two teams and a lot of folks is power rankings this week. So rather than come up with a question,

Starting point is 00:55:27 I just want to kind of preview this one in general because I think we're all just really excited to watch this game. Rams are favored by three at home on Hard Rock Bet. That's actually as of the last time I looked. I'll double check and see if that's moved at all. But last time I checked, they were favored by three at home on Hard Rock Bet with the line at 48.5.

Starting point is 00:55:41 So which sides do you guys like for this one from the betting purposes? Dibral, start with you. I actually want to take the under on this total. Both of these defenses are really good. Both of these offenses play slow. That gives you so many outs. Like we're, yes, we can make a really good narrative like, okay, both these offenses are good.

Starting point is 00:56:00 Seattle's passing offense has been hyper efficient. Does that regress and does that happen this week? Their running offense has not been able to really get going and find a lot of traction week to week to week. And Stafford's playing obviously like MVP level. And I guess my, I'm most interested to see Puka versus the Seattle secondary. like they have given up the 11th most the 11th fewest schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to both slot

Starting point is 00:56:26 and perimeter wide receivers so I actually want to bet the under in this game guys okay by the way I did check on Hard Rock bet it is still 48 and a half and it is still Rams by 3 at home there's so many outs to the under man what do you think about the just Rams minus 3

Starting point is 00:56:43 I think the Rams can cover that because I worry about Sam Darnel and some of the ghosts of Christmas past kind of popping up this week versus that pass rush. Yeah, I kind of lean the same on the ramp side. I'm if you're on the total, I feel really torn on that. Fitz how do you see it? I agree with Debrough.

Starting point is 00:57:04 I like the under. I just think these defenses are both really good. I don't see this many points. And like Debrough said, the pace is a little slower with these two teams. I think the Seahawks are the best team in the league right now. So I like getting points with them. And Debrough, the Puka thing, Like, are you at all worried for Puka that they're kind of pulling them off the field and using all this 13 personnel with three tight ends on the field at the same time?

Starting point is 00:57:30 Some. Some? Like, yeah, they have used 13 personnel on something like 40% of their offensive snaps over the last four weeks, which is just wild. Yeah. Like, they are trying to force opponents into using base defense. And Seattle does not want to play base. No. No, they don't.

Starting point is 00:57:47 They want their base to be a nickel. Yep. But they can kind of get away with it because Nick Eamon, Mori, their rookie safety, like, can do a pretty good impersonation of a linebacker, just so big and physical. So, like, I really want to see that chess match between McVeigh and McDonald. To your point, Fancy, you know, one of my favorite bets of the week, Terrence Ferguson anytime touchdown. You can get it like plus 650 to plus 700 with the matchup. Like the Rams are rolling three deep with their tight ends. You give me those type of odds on an anytime score and a really good

Starting point is 00:58:22 matchup and he's the explosive element, but with those tight ends, that's one of my favorite bets of the week. Fitz, you talked about Seattle being just the best defense in the league. Like, Stafford has been playing quarterback better than anybody the last three weeks. He's been on such a heater that I, like, I kind of feel like the Rams might be the best team in football just with the way Stafford works and Mikeston McVeigh. Both these teams. Yeah, the 25 to two intercept, uh, touchdown interception ratio kind of speaks for itself.

Starting point is 00:58:50 He's been so, so good for over. What happened to the back injury? Where's the back problems that we were so worried about? Like, do we get hoodwinked in training camp? Oh, man. I'm super excited to watch both sides of the ball of this one. But like, yeah, Stafford and McVeigh against the Seattle defense of Mike McDonald. Like, I am pumped for that.

Starting point is 00:59:11 That's going to be an awesome, awesome matchup. Probably a more boring matchup is this next game. Ravens at Browns. There wasn't a ton I wanted to hit on here again, another rematch. although the last time these two teams faced was when Flacco was still the quarterback for the Browns, so it looks a little bit different here. I just want to have you guys rank the tight ends in this one. Mark Andrews, Harold Fanon Jr. and David and Joku, they're all within a few spots of each other

Starting point is 00:59:31 in ECR and half-PPR scoring. At least they were when I put this sheet together. I'll check to see what that is updated to. But how do you guys see it? Fitz, I'll start with you, Andrews, Fanon, and in Joku. How would you rank those three? Just a big collection of Matt. Sort of the tight end two log jam, Mark Andrews, tight end 13, Harold Fanon,

Starting point is 00:59:50 tight end 15, David Nijoku, tight end 18. Okay, so they're all within, what was that, six spots of each other? Yeah. Yeah. It's in ECR, tight end 14 for Andrews, tight end 15 for Fanon. And Jokka's a little lower at Titan 20. He did drop a couple spots since putting the sheet together. So they kind of view him as Yoban out.

Starting point is 01:00:10 But you have it in the same order, though, if it's Andrews, Fanon and Injoku. Debrot, do you have the same order or would you mix it up at all? I got it mixed up. And I'm, I mean, I'm low in all these guys. but I've got Fanon ahead of Andrews. Just Andrews volatility. If he doesn't score a touchdown, he's basically a nothing burger in the games and fantasy,

Starting point is 01:00:28 just in general. So you're really banking on a touchdown with him. But I've got Fanon at Titan 15. I've got Andrews tight in 17. I buried David and Joku because his route share dropped to 48% last week. And he wasn't on the injury report. So, I mean, he's not going to run it like routes at least on like half the dropbacks.

Starting point is 01:00:48 Like I've got him buried at Titan. 26. You're obviously not going to sit guys like Lamar and Henry. I would just say like the Cleveland defense is really good at home. Ravens have lost three of their last four games in Cleveland over the last couple years. Like I am not expecting a very good game by this Ravens offense. Like I think the Cleveland defense is going to play really well.

Starting point is 01:01:10 And like that game in week two, don't get fooled by that. The Ravens scoring 41 points of that game because that was a lot of short fields from turnovers by Joe Flacco. Now, Dylan Gabriel could do the same thing, but I don't expect the Ravens to really move the ball all that well against this Brown's defense. I don't think Derek Henry is going to move the ball well. I don't think Lamar Jackson is going to have a great game. I'm kind of fading.

Starting point is 01:01:35 Can I give you a little bit of hope on Derek Henry and this being a really quiet bounce back spot? The Brown's run defense has taken a step back, like a pretty sizable step back. Like since week six, they've given up the 10th most rushing yards per game. in the Derek Henry wheelhouse worm. Since week six, the Browns have given up the seventh highest explosive run rate. So I think this is a really good, like a sneaky good bounceback spot for Derek Henry. I hope you're right.

Starting point is 01:02:01 I like hearing it. Let's go to Chiefs at Broncos. Another really good game in this slate in the late afternoon. With J.K. Dobbins injured, where are you guys ranking R.J. Harvey this week? I think he's kind of the most interesting name to talk about in this game. Fitz, I'll start with you. And then we'll go to D.Brow, who's been, you know, this huge RJ Harvey believer all season long. Yeah, I'm at RB 23.

Starting point is 01:02:21 I don't want to go overboard because we know Sean Payton is not going to give R.J. Harvey all of the snaps and touches. Like Sean Payton always uses multiple running backs. Ask any Saints fan. Ask Debrough. That's just how Sean Peyton rolls. Tyler Badegh is going to get some work. Joliel McLaughlin is probably going to get some work. And the Chiefs not an easy matchup. They have a lot of the seventh fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Starting point is 01:02:44 And Kansas City is always pretty tough against the run with Steve Spagnolo, calling the shots. RJ Harvey is RB 24 in ECR, Dbrough. Fitz has him RB 23. Does that sound too high, too low or just right? No, just right. I mean, I'm living in the same area code. I think him versus Kamani Vidal was a very interesting conversation this week.

Starting point is 01:03:02 I've got RJ at RB21. And this is just like splitting hairs between a bunch of other options. Like I put RJ above Breeze Hall and a horrible, horrible matchup this week. And I think the saving grace and the out for RJ Harvey Harvey, is what we've seen him, the role him operate, like him operating in from pretty much the entire season, that's the passing game. To Fitsy's point,

Starting point is 01:03:26 yeah, Casey, you're going to have a hard time running on them. But I think this is a sneaky good matchup for Bo Nix because Casey's past defense has taken a step back over the last few weeks. And receiving backs versus Kansas City, they've given up the 11th most receiving yards to running backs in the eighth highest yards per reception.

Starting point is 01:03:44 So quietly a decent spot for Bo Nix in the passing game. game. And if RJ pays off on this ranking for us as an RB2, I do think it's via the passing game and his touchdown equity in the offense, not really what he does in the ground. As of when we're recording, Dobbins still has not gone on IR. If he does end up going on IR and we know that we're going to get a four-week runway with Harvey, where are you guys going to be ranking him in future weeks roughly? Like matchup agnostic, but just in general, where do you see him with Dobbins, like, entirely not an option.

Starting point is 01:04:19 Mid-range RB-2. 20 to 24. Yeah, I'm like, based off of the matchups, somewhere in like the 15 to 20 range, 21 range, when there. We've got two games left. Sunday night football Lions at Eagles. Great matchup here.

Starting point is 01:04:36 Dan Campbell took over the play calling last week and Jameson Williams immediately had his best game of the season. Do you guys expect that to continue with Campbell running the offense or was it more a result of facing the terrible Washington defense, D'Bro? I think the big game was because of facing the commanders, but to your point about the usage, it absolutely changed. Like since week nine,

Starting point is 01:04:56 only two of his 13 targets have been deep. And that's basically, Jamo is Detroit's Kashan booty, Christian Watson, name your low volume field stretching high a dot guy. That's who Jameson Williams up until the last two games. That's who he's been. So if he's going to get more intermediate usage and a bigger share of the target

Starting point is 01:05:20 pecking or target share, uh, having an 18% target share over the last two weeks, I'm more on the pro case that this continues, um, but the matchup is horrible. Um, so I,

Starting point is 01:05:30 I guess more glass half full ish for JMO. Okay. Fitz, do you have a little more conviction on this one? I do. I'm pretty optimistic and D. Bro hinted at it. Like he,

Starting point is 01:05:40 he was just running a bunch of go routes. Yep. with John Morton calling the plays. And I think Dan Campbell recognizes what Jared Gough said. He called Jameson Williams a cheat code on crossing routes. Get this. This is from our friends at Fantasy Points Data. Jameson Williams has seven targets on crossing routes this season.

Starting point is 01:06:01 He has caught six of them for 164 yards. That works out to 23.4 yards per target. That's pretty good. So yeah, keep running him on crossing routes. And yeah, since the by Jameson Williams has been fantastic, 10 catches, 185 yards, two touchdowns in those two games. That would be a T-code for this game on a crossing route versus Adori Jackson. Oh, oh, baby. Adori's not going to be able to keep up with him.

Starting point is 01:06:33 Talking about Jameson Williams, let's kind of transition into our Sunday night prop bet discussion. Each week we're going to highlight our favorite three and four-star. props from the prop bet cheat sheet ahead of Sunday night football. And Fitz, you want to talk about Jameson Williams for your prop bet this week. Total on his receiving average 48.5 yards. I like the over and so does the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet. That is a three star bets. And before the buy, Jamo had only averaged, I think, 41.3 receiving yards a game and

Starting point is 01:07:04 had only gone over 48 and a half and two of his seven games. but yes, he's gone over in each of the last two weeks. I think the trend continues. I just think he's on a better trajectory now that the usage looks a little different. Debrough, you've got a prop on the other side of this one. Yeah, Devontas Smith, man, three-star pop prop on the cheat sheet over four and a half receptions. I'm just going to lean with the volume for the Eagles wide receiver one here. I mean, he's hit the over on this for the last seven games.

Starting point is 01:07:32 Detroit since week six. I mean, they've been kind of a team that's given up a lot of slot production over the last few years. But since week six, the 11th most receiving are to opposing slot receivers. So pretty good game incoming for Devontas Smith. Those were our top prop bets for Sunday night football this week, courtesy of betting pros. You can check out our NFL prop bet cheat sheet at bettingpros.com slash props. Premium subscribers have access to our five-star prop bets, which have a 57% win rate,

Starting point is 01:07:57 and we're up 88 units through week 10. That's really good. Luckily, we've also got a special offer for everyone to unlock a month of betting pros premium for free. Download the betting pros app today and use promo code FP1 month at checkout to redeem your offer. Guys, we'll go to Monday Night Football here. Honestly, we'll be pretty quick on this because there's not a ton to talk about

Starting point is 01:08:14 with these two teams. It's Cowboys at Raiders. These are two teams with a lot of, like, very obvious fantasy decisions. So I just want to ask about two of the running backs in this game. Ashton Janty and Javonty Williams back to back in ECR for the week. So who has the better game on Monday Night Fits? I'm going to say Javante. He is my choice largely because of the big disparity in quality.

Starting point is 01:08:36 between these two offensive lines. Cowboys rank fifth in the run blocking metric adjusted line yards, and PFF gives the Dallas offensive line the 11th best run blocking grade. The Raiders are 32nd, dead last, and adjusted line yards. 26th in PFF run blocking grade. I think Dallas gets Center Cooper Beebe, back from an ankle injury this week. When he's back, the Cowboys have a completely healthy offensive line for the first time all season. Most certainly not the case for the Raiders.

Starting point is 01:09:04 their best offensive lineman tackle Colton Miller. He's on IR with an ankle injury. Interior lineman Jackson Powers Johnson just went on IR with an ankle injury. Like, Ashton Genti is going to be a fantastic player, but he just has not found much running room this season largely because his O line is in such disrepair. Debrough, who do you like better? This is the highest total of the week, by the way, at 50 points on Hard Rockbet.

Starting point is 01:09:31 I'll echo everything that Fitsy just laid out here. It's offensive lines. The other thing I'll say is just scoring potential. Like if you're talking about a passing game that I believe can consistently move the ball and get into the red zone, like touchdowns, I mean, obviously freaking matter. And I think Dallas is going to be in the red zone far more than the Raiders in this game. So I'll take Javante. I mean, he's just having such a resurgence season. Like he's a top seven back for me this week.

Starting point is 01:09:58 Gentie is actually ranked tire now in ECR by two spots that it has changed from when I put the sheet together. He's RB 7, Giovante RB9. Obviously, Boisei. Why, man. Javante disrespect. Still happening. Yeah. All right.

Starting point is 01:10:10 Well, go ahead and wrap things up there. For Debrough and Fitz, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Best of luck here in week 11. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pro's Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at Fantasyprose. com slash review or on Spotify.

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The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 11 (Ep. 1843)

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