The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 14 (Ep. 1882)

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Starting point is 00:00:30 you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, everybody. Welcome in the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmerly. Joined as I am every Friday morning by Pat Fitzmorest and by Derek Brown. And we are answering or asking some key questions for week 14. Fellas, this is it. It is the week to make the playoffs in most leagues. We actually have a work league that the playoffs are already beginning this week. There are some leagues where that is the case. I do not like it. It would not have been my vote if I was commissioner. But for most leagues, this is the week to clinch up those spots.

Starting point is 00:01:03 And we're here to help everybody do so. There are people who, you know, you're already in and it's just about seeding. Maybe you've already clinched it by. If that's you, I appreciate you still listening and just kind of previewing the weekend with us anyway. For those who are trying to lock up those playoff spots, you know, let's do it. We'll jump right in here. There are four teams on by.

Starting point is 00:01:21 Panthers, Giants, Patriots, and Niners. Patriots obviously have provided some fancy goodness for us this year more than expected and there's some stars on those other teams as well. So we're missing players. We'll try to fill those spots here. All of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers. By the way, it can be found at fantasy pros.com slash rankings. Before we get into the preview, I do want to ask you guys about a very high scoring Thursday

Starting point is 00:01:44 night game, Lions 44, Cowboys 30. We can go quickly. I did not watch this game, though. I had other stuff going on last night. So it was frustrating to sit down and see Jemir Gibbs scored three touchdowns when he is one of the reasons I got eliminated from my guillotine league a week ago because he didn't have the greatest game. It would have a nice of these three touchdowns game this week. But obviously, like a very good game for the Lions offense and a good game for the Cowboys offense. It

Starting point is 00:02:11 appears here. Debrough, what was your takeaway here? And how would you describe the game to somebody who didn't watch? So this game started off slow at the gate. I thought this was going to like hit the under and be more of a defensive game. If you just watch like the first like quarter, maybe two quarters and turned it off, like you were like, oh, this is. hitting the under. And then the second half was just just fireworks, man. Both offenses came alive. You know, Detroit just kept piling it on. There were some interesting calls. The refs kind of fumbled the bag in multiple

Starting point is 00:02:42 different spots yet again, which was, it's always a fun time, especially on Island games. But overall, man, it's just the Lions look like again, one of the best offenses in the NFL when I'm in around St. Brown. I mean, dude, we talked about it in Slack Fitsy before the game kicked off. And I'm like, okay, he's playing. I'm trying to figure out where the heck to rank him and Jameson Williams. And both of them had solid games, but not like amazing games.

Starting point is 00:03:09 Fifth? Yeah, we talked about Amun Ra on the waiver show. And someone might have suggested that guys usually play off low ankle sprains. Never on high the next week, but often on low. And that was the case with Amin Ra. So I wasn't totally stunned. We did see him. Pretty good game.

Starting point is 00:03:27 He didn't look like he was. was compromised in any way. Yeah, it was, we got the track meets that the Vegas total of 54 and a half suggested. I was very tempted to bet it under just because there are so many ways that a total that high can be short-circuited. And we kind of got those early on with a couple of drives ending in field goals. You know, just anyway, it was a fun game. But yeah, and pretty consequential game, considering that I think whoever lost that game is going to have a real uphill struggle to try to make the playoffs. And now Dallas has probably got to win out to get in. Also, I do want to bring up, man, the concussion to CD Lamb, if you've not seen the video, don't watch it.

Starting point is 00:04:12 It was horrible to see. And I, again, we're talking about the first week of the fantasy playoffs. I don't know if he's going to be available. It was that bad. Okay. I didn't know he got concoated. I was totally like just not watching it all. And it was it was not pretty, ma'am.

Starting point is 00:04:29 He has the extra three days because of the Thursday night game. So you hope maybe that can help him clear a concussion protocol. But yeah, if you are a CD-LAM investor, you probably should make alternative plans. That's tough. By the way, I'm looking here in the box score. Brandon Aubrey had field goals from 57, 55, 63, like also 42 or 29. Just a huge day for him, it appears. Yeah, I made them all look easy.

Starting point is 00:04:55 Yep. Get the guy inside and he's just a machine. Three, I mean, 55 pluses. The 57-yarder looked like he barely even tried. Like he just kicked in. He just goes, phew. I was like, I watched a lot of good kicking during Justin Tucker's tenure. And I feel like Aubrey is just like that next evolution of that where it's just looks, he makes it look easy from very, very far away.

Starting point is 00:05:19 So impressive by him. Guys, let's get into the early slate here. Like I said, we have four teams on. So a couple fewer games than usual. First game on the slate. Seahawks at Falcons. I'm going to bring back. You might remember the last time we talked,

Starting point is 00:05:33 I gave you kind of a guy a fake million dollar offer. If I offered you a million dollars, you had to get it right, Troy Franklin or Cortland Sutton. I don't actually think you guys did get it right, although I don't remember for sure. But we're bringing it back.

Starting point is 00:05:44 Fitzie wouldn't win the million. I would have been poor. You guys split. If I told you, you would win a million dollars if you correctly pick who scores more fantasy points this week between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonne.

Starting point is 00:05:55 Who would you pick Debrough? I think we all agree. Kenneth Walker is the better player. Charbonnet continues to often get the goal line opportunities going up against the bad Falcons team. So if I gave you a million dollars, who would you pick Walker or Charbonnet? I think at this point, considering these questions, I'm just not meant to have generational wealth. So I'm just going to lean into that further. And I'm just going to keep picking Kenneth Walker, man.

Starting point is 00:06:17 Like the backfield's moved in his directions, but good Lord, the guy can't buy a freaking touchdown. It doesn't matter. Like snap count goes up. He gets more snaps in the red zone. He out carry Charbonnet. Charbonnet still gets the touchdowns. I'll pick Kenneth Walker. I know I'm probably going down with the Titanic with that,

Starting point is 00:06:34 but I'll just lean on that he's getting more of the backfield. Fitzhead, he's seen it. My bank account. Yeah, I went and looked back at how these guys have done against each other who scored more over the game. So there was one game Sharbonnet missed early in the season. In the other 11 games, using half point PPR scoring, Charbonnet outscored Walker five times.

Starting point is 00:06:55 Walker outscored Charbonnet five times. They tied once. So handicapping this one is pretty tough. Like Debrough, I'm going to go with Walker because he gets more opportunities since the start of November, which is the last five games for the Seahawks. Walker's played more than half the offensive snaps and all but one of those games. Charbonnet has played just under 40% of the offensive snaps and all about one of those games. Walker's average 15.4 touches a game. Over that span, Charbonnet 10.8, with only three catches.

Starting point is 00:07:29 But obviously, it's the touchdowns that make this a tough call. Walker has four on the season, just one over his last five games. Charbonnet has eight on the season, three over his last five games. So I'd rather bet on more predictable things. Snaps, carries, catches, touchdowns are unpredictable. I'm convinced that's why people like PBR score. not because they feel they need to balance out running backs and receivers. I'm not sure PPR really accomplishes that anyway.

Starting point is 00:07:58 PPR scoring is just a way to dilute the variance of touchdowns and touchdown scoring. Like adding a point per reception means points from touchdowns account for a smaller percentage of total fantasy points than we get in standard scoring leagues. And I think that appeals to a lot of people. I think a lot of people prefer a game where the vagaries of touchdown scoring means a little bit less. that's interesting i've been totally converted by the way to half ppr half uh point for first downs that's kind of like my favorite uh version of that to play in as a scoring format it's interesting like you just talked about how uh this has basically been split down the middle fits between these two and yet in the consensus rankings kenneth walker's rb 17 Charbonnet's rb 31 so they're not being

Starting point is 00:08:43 ranked as if this is a toss up yeah i'm closer the touchdowns right but i'm I'm closer between those two. I think I'm above on Charbonnet and below on Walker. Yeah. Where they at again, Worm? 17 and 31. I've got Walker at 18 and I've got Charbonnet. I've got him at 31, but I think the conversation for him starts somewhere around like 25.

Starting point is 00:09:08 And by the way, those numbers are with like Gibbs, Montgomery, Javante. Like with those guys removed, you can bump them up a few spots. But yeah, I mean, I. I roster both of these guys in a league together, and I find myself just constantly frustrated at which one I started. All right, we can go to Steelers at Ravens here. Will Lamar Jackson and the offense finally get going this week against a bad Pittsburgh defense, or will his past Steelers troubles rear their ugly head again and continue his recent slump?

Starting point is 00:09:41 Fitz, I'll start with you. Yeah, the easy answer is I don't know, but I'm not benching Lamar. And I've got him at QB8 and maybe that's even below consensus. Quickly, it is aligned with consensus. He's exactly QB8. Yeah, and I get it. So he's been dealing with this ankle injury and just hasn't been himself. He's gone three straight games without a touchdown pass.

Starting point is 00:10:04 Has it run for a touchdown since week one, which is kind of crazy. And is QB 31 in fantasy points per game over the last four weeks, not very Lamar Jackson-like? And you said a worm, the Steelers have historically. giving him trouble in eight career starts against Pittsburgh. Jackson has averaged 160.5 passing yards a game, eight TD passes, nine interceptions, and he has never had a rushing touchdown against the Steelers, which is kind of crazy. So things are kind of stacked against them a little bit here, but on the other hand, would it shock you if Lamar had a 25 or 30 point game? It would never shock me for Lamar to go off. Yeah, it wouldn't shock me. It would surprise me. My

Starting point is 00:10:45 my view on this game before I toss to D-Bro is I am, I think it's more likely that this is the game where the Ravens rushing attack gets going than it is the game where Lamar gets going. Those do go somewhat hand-in-hand a lot of the time. But Tomlin does, you know, historically, he does a really good job against rushing quarterbacks and limiting their rushing. So, like, I don't expect, you know, a rushing touchdown from Lamar or anything like that. That's not really how they use him anyway. The thing that has been so limiting for him, in my opinion, is less his ability.

Starting point is 00:11:15 to run and more his ability to evade pass rushers in the pocket. And it's such a bad offensive line right now that he's not able to kind of hide those warts the way he usually does, which has led to obviously this. This is an extended version of the slump. You would expect even a slumping Lamar to be better than he has been. Debrough, how do you see this playing out? Do you think this is a game where Lamar and the offense as a whole? You know, Derek Henry, whoever it might be, can kind of finally bounce back.

Starting point is 00:11:40 It didn't happen against the bad Bengals defense. Can it happen against the bad Pittsburgh defense? I'll say this. I won't be shocked if it happens, but I'm not projecting it that way. I just, and to further add to Fitsy's points, Lamar has not cleared 40 rushing yards in a game since week four against the freaking chiefs. And he's only done that twice this entire season. Since throw over four passing touchdowns against the dolphins of week nine, he has one passing touchdown. And yes, we could talk about all the touchdowns that would be, could be and should be about fumbles and all things in between. it doesn't matter because they didn't happen.

Starting point is 00:12:15 You look at the last four games, QB 15, QB 29, QB 25, QB 27 in weekly scoring. Even if we want to parse this out and say, okay, well, he's not going to run. All right, fine. He's not going to run because he hasn't been running all freaking year. What has he been doing as a passer? Since week 10 amongst 35 qualifying passers, Lamar Jackson, 35th. So dead last and highly accurate throw rate. and 29th and catchable target rate.

Starting point is 00:12:44 So he hasn't been running. He doesn't get rushing production versus the Steelers. And when he's throwing the ball, he hasn't been good. No, I don't think this is going to be the bounce back. And the other thing about this is the Steelers are playing better defense, man. Like since week nine, this past defense has come alive. They've allowed the seventh fewest yards per attempt and the eighth lowest success rate per dropback. And so the run defense, I mean, coming off that bill's game.

Starting point is 00:13:09 Oh, yeah, but the bills have been doing that. I mean, like, everybody. The bill has just been rushing and down everybody's throat. So that's not incredibly surprising. And I don't know if the Ravens, to your point, worm, do they have the offensive line right now to impose their will on the ground if they want to? Well, I was going to say that the, the best two games Lamar has played against the Steelers in his career are the two most recent.

Starting point is 00:13:32 It was the second game last regular season and the playoff game last year. But those were also largely driven by Derek Henry. Lamar was just, he had those usual, like, really efficient games where he was really good, but he didn't do much. It was a lot of the running game kind of opening things up. I will say, too, before we move off this, that like, it's not, D-Bro, I'll correct you. It's not that Lamar's not running. It's that he's not running well.

Starting point is 00:13:55 He has, you know, his last five games, he's run five, nine, four, seven, and six rush attempts. If you look at the first month of the season, it was, five, seven, six, that's not a normal Lamar game. Well, it has been this season. I'm saying when he was running better in the first month of the season, he was running six times, seven times, six times, six times. He was just way more efficient at it.

Starting point is 00:14:13 So you're right. Compared to his career, it's less. But compared to earlier the season before the injury, it's about the same. It's just not getting anywhere. He doesn't have the ability to accelerate and get any, or evade guys, really, I think is the big thing. So I'm kind of with you. I lean towards this not being the bounce back for Lamar. Fitzcities ranked QB8.

Starting point is 00:14:32 Where is he ranked for you, Dibber? Are you considering not starting him if you have him? Yeah. I mean, I'm considering it. Like, I mean, do I do it? In most aspects of my sitting, Lamar Jackson, no. But it depends on your freaking options, man. Like, right now I've got him at QB9.

Starting point is 00:14:47 So, like, there's some teams out there, and this is a real conundrum. There are some teams out there that could possibly have Lamar Jackson and picked up Joe Burrow off the waiver wire. And it's like, who are you starting this week? And I think it should be Joe Burrow. The matchup is tougher and stuff like that. Maybe you want to, like, balance it out, okay, does T. Higgins play or not? but I just don't know in this iteration of Lamar Jackson

Starting point is 00:15:11 and watch like he goes out and scores four touchdowns and makes me like eat all of this but that doesn't mean that the process is wrong that he has been playing terribly. Guys, let's get Titans at Browns out of the way. Both these teams think I don't want to talk about this game. If I forced you to watch every second of this game,

Starting point is 00:15:29 what players are matchups would you most want to be paying attention to? What intrigues you the most about this matchup if I made you pick something, Fitz, you'll go first here. Oh, the quarterbacks. In the pre-draft season, the run-up to the draft, Dibro and I actually preferred Shadour to Cam Ward. I think we both liked his accuracy, his field reading,

Starting point is 00:15:51 the way he threw with anticipation, throwing to a spot instead of needing to wait for a receiver to break open. He had some of those traits that successful NFL quarterbacks tend to have. And I don't know if I'd make the same choice now, but we are still trying to figure out what Shadur can be. and, you know, his first two starts haven't been terrible after that disastrous relief appearance he made after Dylan Gabriel was concussed against the Ravens a few weeks ago. We're still just trying to figure out, you know, does Chodor have a future as a starter or is he going to be a backup? And I think we're still trying to figure out how good Cam Ward can be.

Starting point is 00:16:29 Like the fantasy results have been bad. He's been pretty much unusable. But the kid was dealt a really bad hand. Like not a good group of pass catchers in Tennessee. Not a very good offensive line, not a great system. We've seen flashes, though. We've seen the armed talent. We've seen the mobility and the ability to kind of manufacture plays a la Caleb Williams off script.

Starting point is 00:16:53 But, you know, as ugly as this game is going to be, it'll be sort of fun to see Cam Ward and Shaduer Sanders go head to head and see who can make more plays. Debra? Yeah, I mean, I'm with Fitsy on this one. The offseason videos of both of them training together and everybody's takes were honestly, hilarious both now and then you know in the future but i i think for me it's watching sharder sanders and seeing what he does versus his defense and i'll even throw in because i think he's an interesting flex play this week i know that a lot of people are not going to have the light on i i get it it's scary but i'm very interested in jerry judy in this game and part of this goes does go back

Starting point is 00:17:31 to shirder sanders because his hyper aggressiveness like he's eighth and deep ball throw rate over the last two weeks so he's trying to push the ball down down the field. And if he connects on any of those throws versus this freaking terrible Tennessee secondary, Jerry Judy could have a big game, man. Like last two weeks, yeah, like he's only got like a 15% target chair, but he does lead the team in three deep targets. So if Shador can light up the secondary, can show promise, can play good.

Starting point is 00:17:56 And I know that's a lot of if sands and butts with that. If he can do those things, Jerry Judy probably has a good day here. Where are you ranking, Judy? Oh, I've got Judy. Where's he at an ECR worm? 46. Yeah, I'm sure I'm ahead of that. I've got Judy right now at, I've got him at wide receiver 40.

Starting point is 00:18:17 I've got him in that like John Mechie, Darno-Muney kind of tier. Okay. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. Big news, Hard Rock Bet is now live in Michigan. Sign up today and place your first $5 sports bet. If it wins, you get $150 in bonus bets on top of your winnings. And if you're more into casino games, new customer. can get up to $1,000 back in casino bonus.

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Starting point is 00:19:50 We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey, John?

Starting point is 00:20:07 Jonas, guys. I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. We were thinking, I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers, this is how you guys remember it going down?

Starting point is 00:20:23 Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you

Starting point is 00:20:41 get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an Acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement home. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas.

Starting point is 00:21:17 And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast, Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid.

Starting point is 00:21:48 He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball. Like, you go through a training camp with that, I said, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball.

Starting point is 00:22:14 So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Next game here, guys, Colts at Jaguars, big game in the AFC South. Colts have scored 20 or fewer points in three of their past four games. It's got to been highlighted by Jonathan Taylor only finishing higher than RB19 once in that span. Not that our RB19 is terrible, but obviously it's not on the level you expect from the season Jonathan Taylor is having. So has the clock struck midnight on the surprising offense or D.Rowe, do you expect a strong performance in Jacksonville? It depends on how we're going to contextualize strong. I think that they can have a good game here specifically highlighting.

Starting point is 00:22:53 I don't think JT has like a monster game. The Jacksonville, like the strength of that defense has been the red defense where you can get at this defense is through the air. now the problem with Daniel Jones is he's playing on one and a half legs and his mobility is nothing. So if they can heat him up, if they can blitz him and stuff like that, he can crumble. And dear Lord, heaven help if we see Riley Leonard at any point in that game, because then it just all falls apart. But if Daniel Jones can get the ball out, I think that one Michael Pittman Jr. can have a bounceback game. I know a lot of people like, we're all on the Alex Pierce train and stuff, but a lot of that has been very, very coverage sensitive. I think a lot of that way the cults have designed this passing attack

Starting point is 00:23:33 is giving Daniel Jones really clear answers to the test on a snap-to-snap basis. And part of that is reading the coverages. And if against too high, like Pittman has been the guy. He has had a 22.5% target share, 28% first reach here against too high. So I think this is a big game for Michael Pittman, Jr., at least an opportunity for a big one. And another opportunity for a big game from Tyler Warren, because Jacksonville has been horrible versus tight-in.

Starting point is 00:23:59 And so if both of those guys would short furrows and making stuff happen and getting the ball out at Daniel Jones's hands quickly, if that can happen, yeah, the passing offense can look a lot better. But I'm not saying like a big day on the ground from JT. Fitz, we talked a little bit on the Thursday show with Jake about how the NFL has done this with a lot of teams this year where two divisional opponents, you get to week 14. It's December. They still haven't played. Raven Steelers is the first time they're playing. Bears, Packers. It's the first time they're playing.

Starting point is 00:24:27 This is another one. The Colts and Jacks have not played yet this year. So what do you expect from the first matchup from these two? I do think Daniel Jones' fibular fracture is kind of a problem for the Colts offense. Maybe it's less of a problem than I think, and I shouldn't be fading Jones and the indie pass catchers to the extent that I am. But I'm below ECR and pretty much all of them except for Tyler Warren, because as DeBrow said, the Jaguars are not especially good against tight ends.

Starting point is 00:24:54 But Jones isn't really running anymore. he's not throwing as much. I think they're maybe trying to protect him a little bit by tamping down the passing volume a little bit, his passing yardage is down over the last two weeks. I think the Colts might have to lean more heavily on Jonathan Taylor, but we'll see how that goes because we like heavy volume for Taylor, but after averaging six yards of carry over his first 10 games, he's averaged 3.9 yards per carry over his last two.

Starting point is 00:25:22 Now, granted, those were tough matchups against the Chiefs and Texans, but the Jaguars are a pretty tough matchup for running backs too. Their defense is better against the run than it is against the pass. The Jags have allowed a league low, 764 rushing yards to running backs, and only four touchdown runs to running backs this season. Just quickly before we move off this game, Brian Thomas Jr., he's, wide receiver 30. Where is he ranked for you guys?

Starting point is 00:25:48 Because, I mean, obviously he's been such a disappointment this year, but with four teams on by, you know, see somebody that you're willing to in a pinch start him, like if you're trying to clinch up a playoffs, or is it just too risky like you're getting away as wide receiver 30 he's ranked in an area where he could be a flex for you fits where is he ranked for you i'm right online uh wide receiver 30 can e c r debor de brough i got him at wide receiver 36 like i i don't want to start him unless i absolutely have to uh i'll fitzy on the spot bryan thomas junior a d mitchell this week i'm team ad where you at yeah i need i think it's close i think a lot of people are going to have this

Starting point is 00:26:25 decision. I need to change this. Like I right now I have BTJ ranked higher but like if I was faced with that decision I think I probably I'm being honest with myself I would start AD Mitchell so I need to yeah like that with my rankings. Mitchell is one spot ahead and consensus. One spot behind Thomas and consensus is Roma Dunzei. Who would you start between

Starting point is 00:26:46 those two? Oh I'd I'd start Rome and just like just hope and pray Caleb can look like a semi-competent pass. I've got Roman ranked a wide receiver 31. So it's not pretty. All right. Let's go to commanders at Vikings. This one's simple.

Starting point is 00:27:06 I want you to rank the running backs. You'd be willing to start in this game. Fitz, we talked a little bit about Chris Rodriguez yesterday. Obviously, the Vikings backfield here. So who are the guys you willing to start and where are they ranked for you in this game? Aaron Jones running back 27. Chris Rodriguez running back 28th. Jordan Mason running back 33 and, you know, McNickles and Chikori Kroski-Marrett are like outside running back four range.

Starting point is 00:27:31 So like not considerations. The commanders haven't been that tough a matchup for running backs, but Aaron Jones, I mean, does he make it through the game with the shoulder injury that he's been dealing with? Which is why the gap between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason isn't all that great. And Chris Rodriguez, we've talked about this. He's only had one game with more than 12 carries, and he's caught one pass all year. So if he does not fall into the end zone, you're probably getting a dud game from him. And I am not playing Chris Rodriguez under. I don't even want to roster him in PPR.

Starting point is 00:28:05 I just think he's unplayable in PPR because of his complete lack of pass catching. He is ranked highest of the three in ECR at RB 27. Mason is actually second fits at RB28 right behind him. Jones is down at RB 33 in ECR. I think some people, some injury question mark. I think people don't think that he's not going to play. That's why.

Starting point is 00:28:28 Yeah. Yeah. Just on that out there. Dbrough, what is you a ranking? We just focus on those three guys. We don't need to discuss anybody else. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:28:34 I mean, for me, it's whoever is going to be the Viking starter. If Aaron Jones plays, I'm playing Aaron Jones. If Aaron Jones is out, I'm playing Jordan Mason. If Aaron Jones is in, I don't want anything to do with Jordan Mason.

Starting point is 00:28:45 So right now I've got Aaron Jones at RB 25. but there's so much that we still need news on like, I'm Arienne Hampton and Alvin Kamara and all those other guys. So like I think anywhere from like low end RB2 to high end RB3 is appropriate. And we still need news on Aaron Jones. Chris Rodriguez, I've got an RB30 and Fitsy framed it perfectly. Like he's been in that,

Starting point is 00:29:08 that Bam Knight kind of area code for me where he's going to get 12 to 15 opportunities. If he doesn't freaking score a touchdown, you're going to hate life and wish you started him. If he scores a touchdown, then cool. he's an RB3 or maybe a low end RB2 depending on how the week shifts out. I think I like Chris, well, I know I don't like Chris Rodriguez better than you guys, but I feel I wonder if there's a chance that he does, like I do think he will score a touchdown. I guess is the way I put it.

Starting point is 00:29:35 Like I, so I'm kind of more willing to start him in this one. Then he's going to get you probably like anywhere between 10 to 12 points. Yeah, it's not as like a ceiling play, but as a, I mean, again, there are four teams on by this. week. So yeah, you can get you the 12 points. You're happy as hell with that and you just move on. But if he doesn't,

Starting point is 00:29:55 he's getting you five or six points and you're wishing you didn't blame. Yeah. We just talked about 80 Mitchell. So let's go to Dolphins at Jets. Is Adonai Mitchell a thing coming off of the game with eight catches, 102 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets? Or will we look back on week 13 as kind of a flash in the pan for him? Is his consensus ranking?

Starting point is 00:30:15 And by the way, when I made the sheet, it was wide receiver 32. It's jumped up to wide receiver 29, as I mentioned, so that's gone up. So is his consensus ranking of wide receiver 29 too high, too low, or just right fits? I guess it's just right.

Starting point is 00:30:28 Since I, a second ago, bumped him ahead of BTJ. I've now got him at wide receiver 30. But who knows, man? Like, it could be way too high or way too low or just right. But I do know that since joining the Jets, A.D. Mitchell is getting something like a 30% target share and a 60% area. yard share and he's six foot two and two hundred and five pounds with four point three five speed so it would be

Starting point is 00:30:57 pretty foolish not to be intrigued by this guy like the usage and athletic profile are just so attractive but you know the cults had him for a year and a half and had no problem throwing him into the sauce gardener trade and before the big game last week mitchell had caught three of 13 targets in his first two games with the jets so it's really hard to see tell where this ride is going, but I can't wait to find out. Debrough, I can't really remember. I seem to recall liking Mitchell better than you, like coming into the NFL as a prospect. You were lower on him, right?

Starting point is 00:31:33 Yeah, I was lower on him. I think he needed a lot that it needed to clean up with his route running and separation. And, you know, there was a lot of things. I felt like, you know, when we get to this time or at least prospect time of the year, um, a lot of the big and fast kind of covers up some war. for players and stuff. So I was lower on him than consensus. But dude, I mean, I think the ranking for him this week,

Starting point is 00:31:54 I've got him at wide receiver 28, I think is appropriate. And I think the problem with him is it's volatile. I think, I think honestly, the more I think about A.D. Mitchell this week, it's like I feel like in rankings, I need to make a stand. I either need to fade him or go all in because either embrace the volatility and the volume that he's going to get because the reality is he's probably going to end up as like a top 15 wide receiver or outside the top 40. One of those things is probably going to happen with his volatility.

Starting point is 00:32:23 He's getting so much freaking volume like to fits his point. Since week 11, 28.4% target share, 61.4% area our chair of 41% first read share. He is their passing offense basically. So in a good matchup, I mean, because the Dolphins since week nine, ninth most PPR points per target, the perimeter wide receivers. I'm just going to stand on process and say he hits. So I'm probably going to move him up even further on the rankings. Like once we get other news about like,

Starting point is 00:32:55 is Justin Herbert playing? Is he not playing? Other guys that are on the fence like what happens with Marvin Harrison, Jr. and other guys like I'm probably going to bump AD up a little bit more and take a more positive stand with him in rankings. Because again, the volatility is there. But dude, it's like I kind of feel like it's a binary decision. Either we're in on him or you're not.

Starting point is 00:33:16 in on him. And if he booms, he's probably a top 20 wide receiver for the week. Yeah, Worm, you and I do the dynasty show with Scott Bogman, who's a big University of Texas fan. And didn't you get the feeling that Bogman didn't know what to make of A.D. Mitchell coming out of college? Like, I think he wanted to like him, but was also sort of perplexed by what he saw from him at, you know, in college. Like, he's just, he is kind of a boom bust weekly guy. I think he might always be that, but the upside is just so intriguing. Like, if this guy can ever put it together and the light totally comes on, look out. Like, there is a ton of upside.

Starting point is 00:33:56 It is worth noting he has never played with an accurate quarterback. And like for, like, I don't think that we can put all the blame for his, you know, lack of production on the offenses he's in. Like, obviously he liked to Debrose point about like needing to improve as a route runner. Like, there was stuff he needed to work on too. but like it is worth noting that he like played you know has not played with a good quarterback Quinn Ewers you're not you're not calling Quinn Ewers. Yeah. Ewers in college, you know.

Starting point is 00:34:24 Don't speak bad about Quinn yours. Bogman's probably hearing that somewhere out in the evening. I hope Bogman is. It's Raven Steelers week. So I hope Bogman is hearing me talk trash about his team. But yeah, Quinn Ewers, you know, Anthony Richardson, you know, I know, I know Daniel Jones had a good start to the year. But obviously there's a lot of malice to feed in Indianapolis. And, um, and then.

Starting point is 00:34:43 you know, Justin Fields, like, he hasn't had a great quarterback to be paired with. So worth noting. One last thing, point on 80 Mitchell, I think what the Colts drafted him, they weren't expecting Alec Pierce to take the next step and be the guy that he's become over the last two seasons. Like you don't make that draft pick to, because you have faith in Alec Pierce and Alec Pierce balling out over the last two years. And again, another guy that came into the NFL with crazy physical tools, but need

Starting point is 00:35:13 to round a lot of other parts of his game. And since he's done that, that's what's kept AD Mitchell off the field. And maybe it's a combination of other things 80 had to improve too. But also, this is also an Alec Pierce conversation. Yeah, it's a good point. You can let autopilot manage your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to worry about last minute changes.

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Starting point is 00:36:12 for the week. Debrough, I want to start with you. Fitz and I talked a bit about this yesterday with Jake, so I want to get your opinion here first, and then we'll go back to Fitz on this. Where are you ranking in Mecca-Buka? What do you think about his ranking inside the top 15? I think it's too high.

Starting point is 00:36:25 I mean, I've got him at wide receiver 20, and I'm going to drop him further. Like, basically, I left all that. I'm going to revisit all that today and on Saturday for the primer because we need Mike Evans news. That's what I think about this. We need Mike Evans news.

Starting point is 00:36:39 And I want to be very clear about how I'm contextualizing this. Mike Evans did not go out with a hamstring injury. Mike Evans did not go out with a knee or any other joint or soft tissue and stuff like that. If Mike Evans is medically cleared and he has been, this comes down to a conditioning standpoint type of thing where if Mike Evans is active this week, I think he's going to play close to his normal role. Now, I'm not saying 80 to 90% of snaps, but can he play 65 to 70% and have like a 75%

Starting point is 00:37:09 route share definitively possible? possible. So from a conditioning standpoint, if Mike Evans plays, I think it means bad things for Mecca Ibuka. And it's going to, I mean, I'm going to drop him further in the rankings because when Evans is on the field, he's their, he's the wide receiver one. So my Emeka, Abuka, thoughts and feelings are really tied to Mike Evans. So we need that news. But I mean, I'm not going to move him up the ranks. We, before I toss to fits, I want to get your opinion on this. We did a head-to-head Ibuka versus Justin Debrose. Debrough yesterday with Jake. Who would you take between those two. I'm taking Jefferson. Okay. They're back to back in ECR. Fitz, you've had a day to

Starting point is 00:37:47 think about it further from when we talked about it with Jake. How are you feeling about it at Buka today? Yeah, still good. And I've got him at wide receiver 14. And yeah, I know some of the recent results have been bad, although I disagree with any framing where you're like, well, if you take out the huge game against the Patriots, you know, if we... The point is that it's only been one good game in the last, you know, seven. So if you take that out, it's like six of the last seven have been like really, really bad. That's also a Baker conversation. I know that that game still counts. It's very much a Baker conversation. I mean, he has not averaged seven yards per pass attempt in any game since week six. That's kind of crazy. That's also a Baker doesn't have weapons conversation too. Like this offense has been bad because everybody's been

Starting point is 00:38:29 freaking hurt too. Yeah. I mean, Abuka has been the one, although he kind of played through a hamstring injury for a while. So I, I, I, totally get the hesitation on Abuka, but for me, it's largely about the target volume. He's averaging 8.4 targets a game this season, 9.8 targets a game over his last six games. So I know it's not just about the target counts. And again, I mean, I think Abuka's recent slump is probably more about Baker Mayfield than it is about Abuka himself. But even with this recent slump, Abuka is still at pace for 1121 yards and averaging 3,000. And averaging 15.2 yards per catch. So I still think he's really, really good, and I want to keep playing him.

Starting point is 00:39:14 So what do you think about the Evans conversation? Like, do you think he plays and is he going to play close to a similar role? If he does, what do you? I mean, does that move you on a Bukka at all? Oh, yeah. I mean, I'm doing this tentatively. I do not have Mike Evans ranked as of now. And we'll see if he plays this week or if they give him like one ramp up week because

Starting point is 00:39:34 they just, they opened his window this week, right? Yeah. Guys typically don't come back the first week that their window is open. Like, I think that happens well under 50% of the time. So I'm kind of thinking Evans doesn't play. Wouldn't shock me if he did. And then obviously I'll have to move a Bucca down and I'll probably not have him inside the top 20. Yeah, I'll probably have both of the guys as like wide receiver 2s.

Starting point is 00:39:57 If once we get the Evans news. So I'm, I'm kind of like shading a Bucca down with the idea. But like, say Evans, say Evans is held out. then Egbuka's probably going to bump up a little bit for me. Like probably like wide receiver 16ish. Yeah. And the other thing, don't Debrough,

Starting point is 00:40:16 you know the saints who the, the Buccaneers are going against. They kind of get bashed in the slot, right? Or no, they're good. Or are they good against the slot? Yeah,

Starting point is 00:40:24 they're better. They're better against the slot. So they kind of get bashed by outside receivers. And like, there are no cornerback matchups to fear here. Kool-Aid Mcastry is not fine, but like he's not. They're not playing good.

Starting point is 00:40:35 Yeah. So I don't dislike anything about the matchup. I think it's more of a plus than a minus. So even if Evans does come back, I think, in most 12-team leagues, at least the ones where you start three receivers, I think Abuka is still in the starter realm. Fitts, if Evans is back, would you rather start at Bucca or Zay Flowers? Man, that's tough. Probably still a Bucca. I'm playing a Bucca.

Starting point is 00:41:04 I haven't ranked one spot above Zay, and this is just more, again, going back to that, to me, that's more of a Lamar Jackson take for me. I just, I don't. And again, I feel like I'm having the same conversation, guys. Like we can rewind to a few weeks ago when I was like, man, you know what? Josh Allen's really been struggling as a pastor. And then he goes out and makes me freaking eat it the next week. And I feel like we're having the same kind of conversation with Lamar Jackson, but I have even less faith to Lamar because all the peripheral numbers have been, God awful. You know what?

Starting point is 00:41:35 I'm going to reverse course on that. I would start Zay. Okay. Yeah. I mean, Zay did almost have a big touchdown on third. Like if it went off for a bad OPI call, it would have looked better. I mean, not that we need to go back to the Ravens, but like to your point, D. Bro, like, I know you said it didn't count at the end of the day.

Starting point is 00:41:53 He was really close to a 300-yard game with multiple passing touchdowns if they likely doesn't fumble and Zay doesn't get called for the OPI. No, that's fine. And my bigger takeaway with Lamar is that even with those plays and stuff like that, his still deeper metrics about his accuracy as a passer. He's missing. He's missing throws he should not miss 100%. Like he has looked objectively bad as a passer. Yeah, that's true.

Starting point is 00:42:20 All right. Yeah, sorry to drag us back to the Ravens again. I mean, it's a given. It's a given. We assume it. I thought Zayflaurs was a good comp, which clearly it was because Fitz couldn't make up his mind. Bengals at Bill's, very fun game here in the early slate. It's pretty rare you get these two quarterbacks going head to head,

Starting point is 00:42:39 and it's not in some kind of prime time. Obviously, it wasn't clear that Burrow was going to be back here just still recently. So that's kind of why it's still, you know, settled into that early slate. But we get a fun one here. Are we getting the big fireworks in this game people are hoping for, and I want you guys to pick a player you are actually fading in this matchup, since obviously everybody is very excited here. Fitz, I'll start with you.

Starting point is 00:42:59 I do think we get fireworks. even if it's cold. I kind of look back at Buffalo home games in December this week to see if that holds down scoring at all. It does not. There have been a lot of shootout games in Buffalo in December. So barring any Blizzard, and we're not getting that this weekend, like, I think you can just start guys with confidence and not worry too much about the cold. Looking at my rankings, I'm not really fading anyone from this game except for maybe Khalil Shakir. and I like him.

Starting point is 00:43:30 He's clearly the bill's number one receiver, but he's not really a big play guy. Shakir is averaging 10.3 yards per catch. He's not a consistent touchdown score. He has three touchdowns this season, none in his last five games, one in his last eight games. And even the catch volume hasn't been totally consistent. Here is catch totals over his last five games. Seven, seven, one, eight, one. So I just, I mean,

Starting point is 00:43:58 I think people are a little higher on Khalil Shakir than they could be at least in ECR. Yeah, two of the last three games, having been wide receiver 98 and wide receiver 104 in scoring for the week is not a great look. But, you know, he does get the Bengals defense here. Dever, what do you think? Do you expect fireworks and who is somebody you would fade in this matchup? I'm not expecting, like, what's the total out on this game? Like, I know it's in the 50s, right? Like, let me pull it up.

Starting point is 00:44:28 I don't have it up in front of me. I know it was like in the 50s like 50s like it was in a low 50s when I looked early in the week. Two or 51 and a half last. It was one of those two early in the week. Yeah. Like I mean, call me crazy guys. Like I'm more on the under on this game.

Starting point is 00:44:43 Like it's not that I'm not expecting scoring, but I'm not expecting that much scoring. And I guess like out of anybody like I'm still starting him. But like fading him like I agree with Fitsy about Klua Shakur. When I first opened ECR this week, I was like, Like, really? Okay, where we got Khalil Shakir as a top 24 wide receiver. That feels ballsy, but whatever. So yes, I have, I have Kalil Shakir as a wide receiver three.

Starting point is 00:45:07 But I guess the guy that I'm a little bit lower than consensus, like I've got him like one or two spots. So like I'm not fading him. He's a QB one. But like with Joe Burrow, like second game back, like the bills, they're not rushing the past are good. So like you could make a conversation, okay, he's going to get clean pockets. But their past defense has been really good. Like over since week nine, eighth fewest yards per attempt, second lowest pass rating, the 10th fewest passing touchdowns allowed. I mean, all those things are conducive to scoring fantasy points.

Starting point is 00:45:36 So going against his past defense and we still don't have word about T. Higgins. Is he going to play? Is he not going to play? I kind of lean that like maybe he's out again. He's been limited. Well, I mean, no, he was he was full on Thursday. Oh, is he full yesterday. But a full, but he is not officially come out of concussion protocol.

Starting point is 00:45:57 Yeah. So I think the progress points to him playing. Okay. And I think the, I mean, we know, we also, I think those bills past stats are partly because they're a run funnel because it's so easy to run on them. And Debrough, I cannot take the under. I've seen the Bengals try to tackle people. I can't take that's fair.

Starting point is 00:46:16 I can't bet the under and a bagels. I was going to say like, it's not even about the offenses. The defenses on both sides, bills are so banged up that Bengals are just. straight up bad. Like, I think this game gets played in the 60s, if not maybe even the 70s. Like, like, the total is 53 and a half that has gone up from where it was early in the week. And I frankly don't care.

Starting point is 00:46:34 Maybe that's a sucker's bet. But I'm just like, I don't, again, it's not even about the offenses. I don't see how these defenses are capable of stopping a good offense. And if these quarterbacks show up and play anywhere close to their A game, like, I think this could be the highest scoring game of the season. Like, like, that's the state of these defenses. So I'm in on a big scoring game here. I mean, I will say to our points earlier, kind of did project a bounce back game for the Ravens last week.

Starting point is 00:46:59 And they kind of suck versus that defense. So we'll see. But they sucked because of turnovers, which are fluky. It wasn't, I mean, they also just have their own problems right now. Like, I think the bill's offense is going to be capable of taking advantage of a bad defense more than the Ravens offense. I mean, we'll see. The other point is the bills have, I mean, they've shown their warts over the last few weeks, too. So, I mean, we do it have to mention that.

Starting point is 00:47:21 It's not like the bills have been just like crushing teams. I mean, outside of like James Cook just running it down people's throats. Like what has been working in the bill's offense? Josh Allen playing Superman. I think I think James Cook can run all over the Bengals. Well, yeah. I mean, you bet the over's on James Cook. But what else outside of that has been working in the bill's offense?

Starting point is 00:47:41 Like not much of anything. And do we get Dalton Kincaid back? Joshua Palmer's banged up. We just talked about our worries about Khalil Shakir. I mean, these are all valid points. Kincaid will absolutely work against the Bengals if he comes back. I mean, if you have Donned Kincaid, you are praying you get him because of how little the bills have gotten from their other receivers, while any of their receivers besides Shakir,

Starting point is 00:48:03 maybe. And we know how the Bengals give it up to tight ends. If we, and really that's the only thing about Kincaid, his target volume, man, if he plays in this game, you've got to figure he's getting at least six or seven targets against this Bengals defense. This is a good point. I know we're going long in this game. game, but is, would you start Dawson Knox if Kincaid is out just given like, I know it's

Starting point is 00:48:25 Dawson Knox, but this is the tight end match. Yeah, but it's also like Jackson Hawes kind of you're going to get two Jackson Hawes touchdowns and hate life watch. So watch and both of these guys are so limited. I can't. I'm not starting those guys over like it would really depend on your option. Yeah. Yeah. Like like I would feel better about like I'd still start like KDot and over Dawson Knox, you know. I would start DJ Hawkinson over. freaking Dawson Knox. I'll just say that. Okay. Let's go to the late slate here. Broncos at Raiders. The first matchup

Starting point is 00:48:57 between these two is one of the ugliest, most boring Thursday night matchups we've had all year. Are there any players you were expecting to perform much differently? I almost said better, but you can say worse too. So much differently in the rematch D, bro. I'm just going to take the low hanging fruit. I'm just going to sit here and take

Starting point is 00:49:12 the easy out here. RJ Harvey, because he's got the starter's job. I mean, dude, you know, he had six touches, 18, to yards. The Las Vegas Raiders run defense has been back and forth. Harvey hasn't had like the big breakout game. Would it surprise anybody if that happens and he runs for two touchdowns in this game? No. So I'll just, I'll take the easy out here and say R.J. Harvey. Yeah, I probably should have said besides R.J. Harvey, but I didn't see he was an acceptable. You didn't. You didn't. I thought I had to.

Starting point is 00:49:43 Where's Harvey ranked for you? Did you say? He's already 15 in ECR. I've probably. And again, that's behind like Javante Gibbs, who have already. played so a little higher not including them i've got him at r b 13 i mean i think he's somewhere in that high end r b r b2 conversation like i mean like but it's a conversation it's like do you feel better about r j harvey or bryce hall or saquan barclay or the thought should say the thought of saqaum barclay this year you know jeez i've got r j harvey ranked rbc 12 i'm ahead of d bro and i don't even think rj harvey is oh i don't think i need to go up i don't think harvey's even look good to be honest with you the last couple of weeks. Like his rushing yards

Starting point is 00:50:20 over expected. I think he's I'd have to look at the number. I don't know what it is, but I think it's underwater. Like, he just hasn't been very impressive yet. But I still think he's a good player. And we like the matchup, of course. When anybody ever has RJ Harvey

Starting point is 00:50:37 ranked higher than Debrough for a week, he becomes the Michael Jordan meme of like, and I took that personally. He needs to make sure that he is no longer lower than whoever's done. I mean, RJ Harvey, two touchdowns last week it was a top five back i mean i'm not going to rule it out that he could score two touchdowns again where where do you think do you real quickly the highest ranked expert in all of our rankings

Starting point is 00:50:58 has harvey this week who you don't have to guess who it is obviously but like where do you think he is ranking is for the highest rb 10 rb seven wow there are three people who have hired there's an rb seven and there are two rb nine so you got you got a lot of work to do to get up there they're they're sipping this week. Good Lord. Fitz, who are you expecting to perform differently in this week? Yeah, I mean, Brock Bowers had one catch for 31 yards in that first game against the Broncos. Tough matchup for sure, but I'm expecting more than one catch for Bowers. And in that first Raiders Broncos game, Troy Franklin led the Broncos and targets with nine, only finished with 40 yards, but he did have a touchdown. Cortland Sutton had four targets. I expect that

Starting point is 00:51:43 to be different. Troy Franklin had a snaps cut last week. Only played about 50% of Denver's offensive snaps, 12 fewer, in fact, than rookie receiver Pat Bryant. So I think Troy Franklin investors should be a little careful starting him this week. Just know that you might not get the sort of usage you've been getting from him most of the season. And I'm expecting more from Cortland Sutton in the rematch, less from Troy Franklin. If you want a chance to win Bijjon Robinson and Drake London signed mini helmet for free, courtesy of our friends at pristineauction.com, all you need to do is to Fantasypros.com slash contest, complete the form, and either download the Fantasyprose app,

Starting point is 00:52:23 leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on X, Instagram, or TikTok at Fantasy Pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive, we will be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Fitz, let's go to Bears at Packers. Christian Watson, Kyle Menanguy, and DeAndre Swift are all ranked within five spots of each other in the week 14 expert consensus rankings and the flex rankings. At least they were when I put

Starting point is 00:52:51 this together. I'll double check that as you answer to see where they are now. How would you rank those three against each other in this game again, Christian Watson, Kyle Menongai and DeAndre Swift. I've them bunched pretty tightly in my flex rankings. Also, I've got Christian Watson first, Swift, second, Monongai, third. Watson, he does have a pretty wide range of outcomes because he's a vertical threat. There's a ton of big play potential with him, but if those deep shots aren't connecting, he could absolutely go belly up, especially in a cold day. Like, it's going to be really cold at Green Bay Sunday. So we'll see how the passing games work. The Bears running game has been just incredible. Can't say enough about how good their offensive line has been playing.

Starting point is 00:53:31 Like, these guys, they went out and got in free agency, like, Dolman and Thune and Jonah Jackson, like, they are just mashing. Since their week five by, the Bears have averaged 179.6 rushing yards a game. That's just nuts. And the Packers run defense is at least decent, although we'll see how the loss of Demonte Wyatt to a season ending ankle injury hurts them. Even if the bears aren't running for 179 yards in this game, like it's still possible one of Swift or Monagai hits it as a pretty good game. But like, you're not often going to get both of those guys smashing, although we've kind of seen it lately. Like the odds say that's not going to happen. And I tend to lean a little more towards Swift, who's been less touchdown dependent.

Starting point is 00:54:20 So interestingly, Menungai and Swift are only three spots apart at running back. They are 11 spots apart at Flex. So Menongai has dropped down. He's still got the questionable tag for the week. Watson and Swift are still very, very close in the consensus flex rankings. Like I said, Menongai is not crazy far, but is a little bit further down. Now, the clear third according to consensus. Debrough, how do you see it?

Starting point is 00:54:41 I've got him ordered DeAndre Swift, Christian Watson, and Kyle Mononga, and I think all three of them are fantastic plays. I think Ben Johnson gave us the blueprint and the script of what he's going to do, or at least try to do the Packers this week. I think it is hide Caleb Williams as much as humanly possible and run the ever-loven piss out of the ball. And they've been able to do it to Fitsy's point. And also to Fitsy's point, like the Green Bay run defense has shown some gives since week nine. their 15th and explosive run rate. They've given up the 11th most rushing arts, and they've given up the 14th highest yards after contact per attempt.

Starting point is 00:55:16 And that's before we factor in losing Wyatt. So I think Ben Johnson showed us what he wants to do last week. He showed us the Bears can impose their will in the ground and hide Caleb Williams. And so I love Swift and Monon guy, both his plays this week. And Christian Watson, baby like, dude, since week 11, the wide receiver 12 in fantasy points per game. He has taken off as the clear wide receiver one. I don't care of Matthew Golden plays.

Starting point is 00:55:43 I don't care of Jade Reed plays. I think they cannibalize each other. I think Watson plays a different role. And he is outside of the worries of those guys, you know, factoring into his workload. And just for everybody at home since week 11, Christian Watson has had a 28% target share and a 36% first read share. I think he's headed for another big.

Starting point is 00:56:07 big day. I shouted out. You had a tweet with some of these stats and I read it on the show, on the Thursday show when we're talking about Christian Watson, D-Row, I know you've been. Dude, he's been awesome. Straight up awesome. Yeah. So impressive, just like stepping right in from the injury.

Starting point is 00:56:24 I did not expect this out from this. I liked Watson as a player in general. I did not expect this from him coming back this year. I didn't either. And real fast before we move off of this game, I think this is also them putting Christian Watson into this role. and giving him the extension earlier whenever he was rehabbing.

Starting point is 00:56:42 I think all of those signs point to they're going to run, they're going to move on from Romeo Dobbs. I think this is putting it at Christian Watson's feet. Can you be our wide receiver one moving forward? And so far, dude, he's answering the bell. And by the way, for a guy who had a lot of injury problems early in his career, Christian Watson is not the guy you would have expected.

Starting point is 00:57:01 He got hurt in week 18 last year. He actually technically got hurt in 2025 and came back in week. from a torn ACL. And he's playing really well, playing the best football of his career. And do you all notice this week? Who's not on the injury report for the first time this entire season? Christian Watson,

Starting point is 00:57:21 not on the injury report for the Packers this week. We've got one more game in the late afternoon slate. Rams at Cardinals. We can go quick on this one. I just want to ask about Matthew Stafford. He has finished outside the top 15 quarterbacks in two of the past three weeks. Obviously, had that very poor game against the Panthers with the interceptions, breaking his streak of not throwing any interceptions.

Starting point is 00:57:40 He's ranked as the consensus QB3 against Arizona this week. I was surprised by this. Obviously, Stafford has been very, very good for most of the year. In general, I'm not surprised that he's being ranked as like just kind of throw away the Carolina game and expect to bounce back. Three is pretty high for a guy who absolutely does not run. I know there's four teams on by. I know guys like Lamar Jackson haven't been playing well. Joe Burroughs still coming back off his injury.

Starting point is 00:58:05 Again, three just feels a little high to me. me, Debrough, do you see it as high or are you in line with consensus? I'm in line with ECR. And I think this is more of a take of other quarterbacks being on by, having tough matchups like Mahomes going against the freaking Houston Texans, G.1 Hurts not playing good and going against the Chargers. I think that's more of what in Lamar Jackson playing bad. So like all these other quarterbacks that are usually above him in consensus.

Starting point is 00:58:29 And the other part about this, dude, I think we get a pissed off Rams team. After last week, this should be the big. bounce back game for Stafford. I know Will Johnson is back. They've been better, but Garrett Williams, Garrett Williams and the slot has still been horrible. So I do think this is a bounceback game. And if if the Rams want to run it up and say, look, like we're, we're re-cementing the Matthew Stafford MVP talk. Good spot to do it. Fitz, what are you thinking? By the way, QB3, that's behind Dak Prescott, who's already played. So of the guys still left to go, it's really QB2. Yes. And I agree with it. He committed turnovers last week. That's out of character.

Starting point is 00:59:06 And you might have heard of these guys named Puka Naku and Devante Adams. They're pretty good. Can I just drop some interesting numbers on Devante Adams? So 11 touchdowns in his last six games, which is just crazy. He scored at least one touchdown in each of those six games, multiple touchdowns and four of them. What's wild is that over that six game touchdown spree, Adams has averaged 48.8 receiving yards a game.

Starting point is 00:59:35 and he has scored a touchdown on 42.3% of his catches. That is crazy. That's insane. And get this over. So 48.8 receiving yards a game during this crazy touchdown streak. First six games of the season, 66 yards a game, only three touchdowns. Go figure. Man.

Starting point is 00:59:57 Yeah, that's funny. I'm not down on Stafford. I don't want to sound like I'm trying to fade him this week. I just was surprised to see QB3. but there are other factors, like you said, guys on buy, things like that. So we're definitely all expecting a bounce back this week from the Rams. Let's go to Sunday night football. Can the Chiefs overcome their inconsistency and offensive line injuries against what I think is the best defense in the NFL?

Starting point is 01:00:19 You could argue like Seattle, Denver, like one of, and in my opinion, the best defense in the NFL. Can the Chiefs overcome what they've been dealing with as of late fits? It's going to be a struggle. There's a reason this game has a Vegas total of 42 at Hard Rockbat. And I agree with you. I think the Texans do have the best defense. And, you know, for all the love that Miles Garrett and Micah Parsons get, Will Anderson is looking like Lawrence Taylor Jr. these days.

Starting point is 01:00:48 I mean, he has just been insane, whether it's, you know, just speed or his ability to just crush the pocket. I mean, Will Anderson is playing at a defensive player of the year level. He's not going to get it because Miles Garrett is going to get it. but Anderson should absolutely be in the top three there. The one guy I've some hope for in the Chiefs this week is Rishi Rice. I've got him wide receiver three, which I know is above consensus, and maybe it is too high. But the Texans are kind of a slot funnel.

Starting point is 01:01:18 Like in terms, and I think I might have mentioned this on another show, I was on with you, Worm, in terms of the fantasy points the defenses have allowed to slot receivers, as a percentage of the total fantasy points they've allowed to receivers, Texans are fourth highest in giving up slot points behind only the 49ers bills and Colts. So I still think Rice can get over in this game, but I don't want to bet on anything else in the Chiefs offense. Debra. Shout out to Will Anderson, second in the NFL behind only freaking Aiden Hutchinson in hurries this year.

Starting point is 01:01:56 Yeah, I agree with everything Fancy said. And I'm just going to encapsulate this by telling everybody out there right now. I've already bet the Houston money line at over at Hard Rock plus 150. Bet it. Enjoy it. Love it. Casey's not winning this freaking ball game. They're not.

Starting point is 01:02:12 Nope. What's the spread? I was on the total. Is it three? It's three. Yeah. The other part about this, I think the Houston. It's three and a half on Hard Rock bet.

Starting point is 01:02:22 I think the Houston offense has a good day throwing the ball. And I think Houston wins this freaking ball game. I think their defense is going to smother my homes. It's going to look rough. We do a second question on Sunday night football every week. We highlight our favorite three and four star prop. Excuse me. We highlight our favorite three and four star props from the prop that cheat sheet ahead of Sunday night football.

Starting point is 01:02:44 Debra, what's your favorite three or four star prop for this week? Just kind of alluded to him, man. Jaden Higgins, over three and a half receptions. That's four stars on the prop bet cheat sheet. And what do you want to talk about? Like, okay, this is too high coverage. And Jaden Higgins has a 30% target per route run rate against two high since week 10. or we want to mention that the chiefs have been giving it up to perimeter wide receivers

Starting point is 01:03:06 since week nine they're giving up the fourth highest pass rating when target. Yeah, Jaden Higgins. Give me that easy over. To pull back the curtain, Dibro first sent in a prop that was a two-star prop so we didn't want to use it. And it was a Jaden Higgins. It was actually needs to be another one. He was like, all right, I'll find another Jaden Higgins.

Starting point is 01:03:23 Like he was going to pick Jaden Higgins. Spent the over receiving arts, bet the anytime touchdown. Just just Jaden Higgins. Jaden Higgins. Fitz. What's your favorite prop here? Xavier Worthy under three and a half receptions. And you know what I just said about the Texans past defense being kind of a slot funnel?

Starting point is 01:03:40 It means they smother outside receivers. And Worthy has had three or fewer catches in five of his last eight games anyway. And those games were against worst defenses than the Texans, except for maybe the Broncos and Worthy only had three catches against them. Those were our top prop bets for Sunday night football this week, courtesy of betting pros. You can check out our NFL prop bet cheesheet at beddingprose. com slash props premium subscribers have access to our five-star prop bets which have a 58% win rate and

Starting point is 01:04:07 we're up over 85 units this season luckily we've also got a special offer for everyone to unlock a month of betting pros premium for free download the betting pros app today and use promo code fp one month at checkout to redeem your offer that's the number one not spelled out uh let's go to monday night football here to wrap things up guys eagles at chargers a j brown finally delivered for fantasy managers last week but the rest of the offense struggled and the eagles only scored 15 points against the Bears. Can A.J. Brown be trusted again, or will this be more of a game for Hertz, Barclay, Smith, Goddard, etc.? Anybody else here fits?

Starting point is 01:04:40 Trust it is not a good word to use with the Eagles offense these days. I don't know if there's anything you can trust in Kevin Petillo's system. But I have A.J. Brown ranked wide receiver 10 and under no circumstances, what I ever consider benching him, except maybe in a guillotine league where everyone's got an all-star team this deep in the season. Debra? Yeah, I mean, I'm starting AJ Brown regardless at this point because the time you sit in, you're going to hate life. But I will also point to, yeah, man, like it's you're starting Sequan Barclay.

Starting point is 01:05:15 Again, this is just the idea of Sequan Berkeley. But I will say that like I've been on this train the entire year. The Los Angeles Chargers run defense is massively overrated. Like they're not giving up a ton of rushing yards and all that kind of stuff like that. You peel back like the deep. Piper metrics, fourth highest mistackle rate since week nine, 10th highest rushing success rate. Sequin's had a lot of good spots to get going. This is another one.

Starting point is 01:05:40 We'll see if he can actually do it. But the guy that I want to highlight, and I was surprised by this, man, like, why the heck is Dallas Goddard so freaking low in ECR? Like, he's tired and freaking 16. Why? Like, I don't get it. Fitsy, go ahead before I just spit the love letter on Goddard this week. Like, why is he that low?

Starting point is 01:05:59 Oh, because so like back in week 10, they played the Packers and he had, I think, three catches for 42 yards and like six targets. Those were his highest catch, yardage and target totals of like the last seven weeks or something like that. He's been terrible. That's why. So I'll point back to, okay, he's got touchdown equity in this offense and low key, the charges have not been good at defending tight ends. Like, yes, we could talk about, okay, they've given up the six fewest receiving yards per game to tight ends. That's more of a function of they have not been, like, Titans have not been targeted versus them. And talk about Brock Bowers versus the Chargers.

Starting point is 01:06:41 Also like, look at what they've done versus Titans on a per play basis. Like, fourth fewest targets per game to the position that they faced. But when teams have targeted the tight ends, they've given up the 12 highest yards per reception and the eighth most receiving touchdowns per game to that position. So I think Dallas Goddard should be a top 12 tight end this week. Yeah, by the way, tight end 26 in PPR points per game since week seven. Yeah, it's fair point. I do a prediction show with Erickson early in the week and my number one best like bet, we had to do like a hard rock best bet of the week.

Starting point is 01:07:20 Mine was the Eagles minus two and a half. Like I think they're going to smash the chargers honestly. Do you guys think I'm crazy for that? Like I just, I think the Eagles are going to win this game running away. I think there's a possibility we get. Tray Lance this week. Like I'm not believing all the smoke that Jim Harbaugh is like dealing out there. Trey Lance is taking first team reps.

Starting point is 01:07:38 And if there's anybody in the entire freaking out NFL, we cannot trust with injury information reporting. It's freaking Jim Harbaugh. And for all the Chargers fans out there that hate that take, really. So how much conversations have we had about when QJ was dealing with a hamstring injury and how many conversations and details have you heard about Amari Ann Hampton? Oh, okay. I mean, even if Herbert was fully healthy,

Starting point is 01:08:03 I wouldn't like this offensive line going up against the Eagles. He's got one working hand and a robot hand. I'm still taking Kyle Shanahan as being less trustworthy. Sorry. No, that's fair. That's fair. Super fair. But they're widening the same clown car, Fidsey.

Starting point is 01:08:17 All right. We'll wrap up there. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Best of luck getting into the playoffs here. If this is kind of a do-or-die week for you, if you have any other questions about specific start, sit matchup, you know, anything, you know, the guys are on Discord all the time. Fitz will be doing a Twitter takeover on Sunday.

Starting point is 01:08:32 We'll have opportunities to answer more specific questions. Please hit us up on social, Discord, everywhere else. But best of luck here this week. Thanks for tuning in. For Debrough and Fitz, I'm Ryan Warmly. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us

Starting point is 01:08:48 is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at Fantasyprose. com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel. channel at YouTube.com slash fantasy pros. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what?

Starting point is 01:09:28 We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Starting point is 01:09:50 Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

Starting point is 01:10:13 We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Turn someday into right now with Body by Jake Radio, nonstop workout music and expert tips 24-7. Hey, head over to iHeart.com. Search Body by Jake Radio and stream it for free right now.

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The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 14 (Ep. 1882)

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