The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 4 (Ep. 1736)

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Starting point is 00:00:30 you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros football podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley. Joined as I am every Friday morning by Pat Fitzmorest and by Derek Brown. We are doing our key questions episode for week four. Quick reminder that all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found at Fantasypros.com slash rankings. Not only is the season, you know, going fast as it always does, we're into week four. Like I said, we are also into the early games. We have Vikings at Steelers, which is in Ireland, and it is, you know, one of our international early games. So it's going to be a very long Sunday for everyone watching

Starting point is 00:01:11 football, hopefully a very fun Sunday for everyone, hopefully a very lucrative Sunday in your fantasy teams. And if you're making any bets as well, we, I just do, I just want to quickly ask before we dive into the game, DeRoe, like, I am adamantly opposed to this expansion of the international games. I don't need a, you know, 9 a.m. Eastern, whatever time it is. I don't need these early starts. Once a year as a novelty is fine. I don't need this like five or six weeks stretch where we have it in the middle of seemingly

Starting point is 00:01:43 every season now and it's only getting more and more. How do you feel about it? I don't think that that's necessary. Like I wish the NFL would take away the Thursday night games and then move to like a Friday night game and then like I like the Monday doubleheaders and stuff, but all the international stuff. It's like, I get it and I understand like the global reach of the NFL. I understand all of that.

Starting point is 00:02:05 But it doesn't make it as much of a novelty when it becomes so much more commonplace. I agree. By the way, on those Thursday games, like, I don't think it'd be very difficult if you said, we're just going to do them during the time of year where there are buys and always just make it two teams coming off a buy. And then you don't have this like immediate turnaround. And then you can do the opener still as well because they have. plenty of time before that that's kind of my thought on the thursdays fits what do you think about

Starting point is 00:02:32 all this international games like i get expanding the game but it just feels like it's too much like you i would like to see fewer of them maybe one or two of year not five or six or whatever it is this year um i dislike those more than i excuse me i dislike the overlapping monday games more than i dislike the early sunday games the the overlapping monday night games just really annoying me i'd like to, you know, I want Monday Night Games to be standalone games. I want to be able to, like, watch all of whatever game there is. And the first set was okay when they did not overlap and we got two games. That was cool.

Starting point is 00:03:08 The overlapping ones. Well, all the East Coast folks had big complaints about the... I'm sure. Yeah, but everybody thinks they look, like everybody talks like they're in East Coast. East Coast time zone thinks that like the rest of the world lives in Eco. Debra, I don't even know what time zone you like, because the other day on Twitter, you were crapping on Mountain Time Zone. Well, Mountain Time's made up.

Starting point is 00:03:29 We all know that. They're all made up. We all count on one hand how many people we know live in Mountain Time. Every time zone is made. I believe Denver has the most employees of any city at our company. So you should show some respect to Mountain Time. By the way, DeBro, we're never getting NFL games on Friday nights. They're just never going to mess with high school football.

Starting point is 00:03:50 There are too many NFL fans whose kids play high school football and they are preoccupied. And it never gets to out of high school football. night because then it'll conflict with college and the NCAA will riot so yeah no i know just wish for thinking i just think i'll just think that we can move on after this i just think that like the limited availability of football is a huge part of why it's so successful like if if there was 162 games like in baseball it wouldn't feel as special having a whole day dedicated to it every week on sundays and um you know your team only gets to play once a week so it really met if baseball was played only once a week those games will be way more popular.

Starting point is 00:04:24 I think the scarcity of football is a huge part of its appeal and if you get rid of that, I just think you're playing with fire. Not that it's going to become unpopular or anything, but I don't like it, is my point. Let's dive into that Ireland game, Vikings at Steelers,

Starting point is 00:04:41 and I want to ask about Jordan Addison, who is coming back off suspension. Fitz will start with you. How will Jordan Addison's return from suspension impact the Vikings passing game for fantasy managers? I don't think, it'll be a big impact in this game.

Starting point is 00:04:55 Like it's possible we only see Addison play maybe half to two-thirds of the offensive snaps. I'm sure he's not, he's probably in cardio shape after being away from the team, but maybe not in football shape yet. You know, no hitting for him. Can't imagine he walks right in and plays 90% of the snaps. And Addison is probably not going to be completely in sync with Carson Wentz, considering that Wednesday was the first day that Carson Wentz has ever thrown a pass. to Jordan Addison and a Vikings practice.

Starting point is 00:05:25 So a couple days ago, that was it. And, yeah, so, like, I'm not expecting a six-catch, 90-yard game for Jordan Addison right off the bat. Do you see any impact fits for what Addison does to, like, are you expecting maybe a little bit less of a game from Jefferson and Hawkinson, anything like that, just as they work him in and get him incorporated back into the offense? Not those guys, but I would not start Jalen Naylor or Adam Thielen this week. Okay. I don't know how many people were starting them regardless, but it's fair to point out. Debrot, what do you think? What are your expectations for Addison and kind of the offense as a whole with Addison back? I mean, I think it's better things moving forward for the Vikings. Unfortunately, the acquisition of Adam Thielen has been pretty useless. Like he's been a ghost the beginning of part of the season. And I understand they've been more run heavy than we all kind of anticipated and things have kind of gone sideways. But also, did anybody think that through the first few games of the season to this point of the season right now, Adam Thelan have only. six targets, two catches, and 26 receiving yards, and a 9.2% target share. No. So considering that, Addison's going to provide a boost for this offense. And I mean, I'm with Fitsy that, like, I don't think he plays like 90% of the snaps, but I think when they're out there in passing downs,

Starting point is 00:06:39 like he's still going to have like a 70 to 75% route per dropback rate. And they probably just cut him on like more condensed packages, running some 12 and run plays and stuff. That's where they take him off the field. But when they're passing, I think he's going to be on the field. I think he's going to have a good day, man. Like this Pittsburgh secondary has been god awful. Like just they have been nothing close to what I think any of us thought they were going to be entering the season, considering the talent, the names, everything. And looking at the coverage structure, Pittsburgh has been single high, heavy for the last two seasons. We know we're going to get that.

Starting point is 00:07:13 This year, 67% of the defensive snaps. Against that last year, Addison tore it up, man. He had 2.2 yards per route run, 27% first read share. The matchup is good. I think even on limited snaps, like even if he plays 70%, like I'm pretty confident he's going to put up a strong stat line. Like I got him at wide receiver 34 this week. No. Did you guys think about Addison when ranking Carson Wentz this week?

Starting point is 00:07:36 Like does he actually go up a little bit for that or no? I didn't. Only because I don't think he's like Carson Wentz is going to throw a ton. And this is also a good game to lean on Jordan Mason because the Steelers run defense has been pretty bad. Right. That's kind of where I'm at with Wentz. I've got him QB 27. think they're trying to hide him as much as possible.

Starting point is 00:07:57 But actually, Dibro did make a pretty good case for Addison. I might have to move him up a little. I've got him in the 50s. Where do you have him at right now, Fitsy? I'm like in the 50s with him, like 53 or 52 or something like that. But, you know, I should probably have him in the 40s. Yeah. All right.

Starting point is 00:08:15 Let's go to commanders at Falcons. This is back to the normal Sunday early slate. Opposing RB-1s against the commanders have all finished. with under four yards per carry in each game this season. I believe it was like under three in the first game. Then the next two have been about 3.7 per game. I forgot to write it down, but I think I'm remembering that correctly. But it's all been under four yards per carry.

Starting point is 00:08:35 It's not like we would consider sitting Bijan Robinson under any circumstance. But Debrough, is this a defense that could give him some trouble maybe? I'm not worried about it, to be honest. Just because if you look at how good Bijan and looking at this run defense on paper, like if you're not a highly explosive runner if you're one of these more volume compiling not can really do and create extra yards just by yourself then it's more concerning like washing them like if you look at on paper the matchup they do add the seventh best stuff rate so again going back to the archetypes and some of the running backs they face like the giants

Starting point is 00:09:13 don't have a good offensive line the packers Josh Jacobs is good at what he does but we're not saying like he's not out here ripping 50 and 60 yard runs and and he's not not known for his explosiveness. And Ashton Genty, again, terrible offensive line. I think more of what we've seen so far from the commanders has been a function of a middle of the road run defense that has faced some pretty, like two of these three teams, they've played at Putechard offensive lines or they're playing bad. This run defense also has allowed the 10th highest explosive run rate and their middle

Starting point is 00:09:44 of the road as far as mistack rate, like they're 17th. So you stack all that up against Bejohn Robinson who, I mean, Atlanta quietly, even despite the injuries, their ninth best in yards before contact per attempt, which is probably more of a Bejan stat than it is for their O line. Because Bejohn's freaking awesome. Like, he's top 15 in every single per touch efficiency metric. The film test, the eye test also passes too. Like, I'm not worried about Bejohn.

Starting point is 00:10:08 I think that this is quietly a pretty good spot for him. What do you think, Fitz? Dbrough said it pretty well. Got to look at the opponents. And it was the Giants. And that was the Tyrone Tracy Giants, not the Cam Scataboo Giants. The Raiders last week who haven't been able to run against anyone. And Ashton Genty is one of only two running backs in the league averaging negative yards before contact per carry.

Starting point is 00:10:34 So really it was just Josh Jacobs as the only decent running back they faced. And he did just fine, 23 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown. So not a huge game, but a solid game. I'm kind of with Debrough. It's a pretty good maybe above average run defense, but not a man. to fear and certainly not a matchup that's going to deter you from starting Bijon Robinson. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is top rated, probably because there are so many promos and so much to bet.

Starting point is 00:11:08 If you're doing some fantasy research for Sunday, don't forget to check out those players' odds to score on the Hard Rock Bet app. And if you want to ride a hot hand, look at the Hard Rock Bet stats hub. Fantasy pros has Jalen Hertz as the Consensus third ranked quarterback this week. He's reached the end zone in six straight games, or if you want a sleeper, David Montgomery is down at RB30, even coming after what he did on Monday night. But Montgomery does play very well in September. According to the Hard Rock Bet stats hub, he scored a touchdown in seven straight September games when Detroit is favored as they are this week. You can bet that streak and find more insights any day of the week on Hard Rock Bet app. Now, if you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets if you win.

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Starting point is 00:12:28 Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special.

Starting point is 00:12:44 So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call. about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

Starting point is 00:13:03 I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Starting point is 00:13:24 Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Starting point is 00:13:55 What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast, Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs.

Starting point is 00:14:19 I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too.

Starting point is 00:14:38 Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get to fly. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball, like, You go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we're going to Saints at Bills.

Starting point is 00:15:02 As of when I put the sheet together, I didn't look to see if this moved at all. But when I put the sheet together a couple days ago, the bills were laying 15 and a half points on Hard Rock Bet, which is the biggest line of the season so far. Will they cover that spread? and then also fits, I want you to pick one saint that you like this week and one Bill you dislike to kind of go against the narrative of this game. Ooh, interesting. All right. Yes, I do think the Bill's cover in this one. They kind of sleepwalked through their Thursday night home game against the dolphins and got a real scare in that game. So I think they'll be a little more dialed in against a second straight overmatched opponent. They've had extra rest time, extra prep time, and they haven't had to leave home. I think the bills win big in this one. A saint I like, I'll keep putting Chris Olavé in lineups where I have him.

Starting point is 00:15:50 Like his target counts so far, 13, 10, 14. He has 23 catches already, although the weird thing is he has been between 54 and 57 yards in every game so far. So there's a sturdy floor, especially in PPR, if not exactly, you know, the ceiling does not look like the Sistine Chapel here with Spencer Rattler. at quarterback. A fade for the bills. I'll say Dalton Kincaid. He's tight end three in fantasy scoring right now because he's gotten into the end zone a couple of times. But he's only playing about half the bill's offensive snaps and he hasn't had more than six targets in a game. So if there's anyone who disappoints, maybe it's him. Fitz, would you rather start Kincaid or Kelsey this week? Oh, man. That is interesting. That is interesting. I'm good.

Starting point is 00:16:43 Let me check the rankings real quick. I think I do have Kincaid ranked higher. Kelsey looks pretty dusty. They're back to back in ECR and they're my two tight ends in a dynasty league that we're all in together. Yeah, I've got Kincaid tight end eight. You don't have Kincaid in that league. I have Kincaid in that league. The other Dynasty League that were in.

Starting point is 00:17:01 Oh, okay. I was like, you can have Kincaid. I'll trade it to you. No. You'll trade to me in the league where I already have Brock Bowers. No, I'm good. You need a backup. I have Kyle Pitts is my backup, actually.

Starting point is 00:17:12 I've got King's. K, tight end eight, Kelsey, tight end 10. Okay, so close, but yeah, you do lean in that direction. Debrough, what do you think about this game? Do you think the bills are going to cover this huge spread and then also pick a saint you like and a bill you dislike? Man, you made me look this up.

Starting point is 00:17:29 It's actually moved more in the direction of the bills on Hard Rock bet it's minus 16 and a half now. Oh, okay. Good Lord. So it's kind of the other direction. I, okay, so I don't think the bills cover on this and only because not because I think that the Saints are going to put up much of a fight. I just think that they can get there in garbage time stuff and make up after the bills kind of take their foot off the gas.

Starting point is 00:17:52 Because I mean, if this number was like 12 and a half or something like that, then fine. I think they cover. It opened at 12 and a half by the way. Oh, okay. Well, there you go. But 16 and a half? Dude, like that's tough. With that many, the back door is always open when there's a spread that big.

Starting point is 00:18:06 Yes, exactly. And that's, but the other thing about it is like there are paths to the Saints' movies. the ball in this game. Like their run defense is not stellar. So I think Camer can get good usage on the ground. Chris Salab is my saying to it for all the points that that Fitsy laid out here, he's getting a crap ton of volume. But the other thing I'll point out here too is that like the Buffalo Bills have faced the sixth fewest perimeter wide receiver targets, but they rank 15th and fantasy points per game. And they've allowed the fifth highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. So quietly pretty good spot for Chris Lave. So I feel really good about him as a

Starting point is 00:18:42 wide receiver three this week. The bill that all fade because Fitsy, I think this is going to make things tingle. I think it's the Keon Coleman week, bro. So I think Keon's in for a big day. And Khalil Shakir is the guy that all fade here. Just his usage, the Saints have been more single high heavy at 58.4% of their snaps. His usage versus single high this year has been okay, but it's not great. If there's one thing the Saints have actually been pretty good at, it's defending the slot. Slot receivers against the Saints of the ninth few as PPR points per target and the fifth, excuse me, the fifth fewest fantasy points per game overall. So, she cares my fade because I think it's going to be a big key on day.

Starting point is 00:19:23 On the, you know, big spread, like also, like, would it totally surprise you if the bills kind of played with their food a bit too, like even not even just talking about a backdoor cover, but like a three and a team that almost feels like given their schedule, they've already locked up the one seed in the AFC going up against the team that a lot of people thought was going look-ahead game or maybe Kellanmore like maybe I'm not seeing the Saints win this but it's closer because of garbage time and everything yeah yeah like yeah my point is that I don't think it's necessarily if they cover the Saints cover that is I don't think it's necessarily going to mean like oh they definitely it's a backdoor cover like I could see it being closer than people expect for like

Starting point is 00:19:57 like I don't think anybody will at no point well I think the bills are going to lose but I could see it being you know under three scores for most of the afternoon it feels like they're just not putting them away well and I also think it's in the Saints favor being a dome team traveling to freaking Buffalo that this isn't in like the snow and the tundra and stuff like that too. Yeah, for sure. All right. Let's go to Browns at Lions.

Starting point is 00:20:21 Fitts, sorry to be talking about the Browns facing an NFC North team. I know that's going to bring up some scars for you. The unstoppable force, right, the Lions offense versus the immovable object, the Browns defense, which has been really good this year. I mean, you think, like, not just statistically, like, oh, the Browns defense has been really good. Think about who they have faced. They have faced the Bengals when they still had Joe Burrow, and it was a Bengals offense that had actually played in the preseason unlike previous years.

Starting point is 00:20:46 So you kind of thought they would be, you know, more ready to go in week one. In week two, they face the Ravens offense, which is like the second or I think it's actually still the first, you know, highest scoring offense in football. And then the Packers, who I know their defense is better in their offense, but it's been a good offense this year. And the Brown's defense has made all three of those. I know the Ravens scored over 40 points, but that was a lot of like defense and special teams helping them get there. They have made every one of these offenses look pretty bad relative to the rest of the season. But again, the Lions offense is really good. So, Fitz, I will start with you.

Starting point is 00:21:16 Who wins the battle on that side of the ball, Lions offense or Brown's defense? Yeah, so I'm going to say the Lions, maybe more through the air than on the ground. Like the Browns are only giving up 2.2 yards per carry to running backs so far. They rank first in DVOA against the run, but they're only 18th in DVOA against the pass. So I don't think we're getting another 150-yard rushing day from David Montgomery. Sorry, worm. But we might get 150-yard day from either Amunrah, St. Brown, or Jameson Williams. But not to diminish this Cleveland defense, it is really good.

Starting point is 00:21:53 They totally stuffed the Green Bay offense into a locker last week. And they just, the Packers could not handle the Brown's defensive front after the Packers lost Zach Tom and Air Force. and banks to injuries early in the game to their key starting linemen. After that, it was just kind of open season on Jordan Love and they couldn't get any movement in the running game. I think the Lions are going to do enough to win the game, obviously. And so by that measure, you could say that I'm picking the Lions offense.

Starting point is 00:22:25 But specifically on this side of the ball, I actually think the Brown's defense is going to have the better day than the Lions offense. I'm just so impressed by what I've seen from Cleveland on that side of the ball. So, Debrough, go ahead and break our tie here. I'm going to go with the Lions offense. And I think this all comes down to one specific factor in this game. Do Christian Mahogany and Tate Ratledge hold up? If they hold up against this defensive line, then the Lions can cook here.

Starting point is 00:22:52 Really, and this all comes down to the trenches. And can the Browns have a good day? It is possible. If their D-Line can get home, they can bring pressure because they are seventh best in pressure. And we know Jared Gough has a problem with that. That's what happened with the Packers game. Tate Routledge and Mahogany were overmatched. But I think this offensive line is kind of not finding its stride, but I think they're playing better.

Starting point is 00:23:13 Both those guards have played better over the last two weeks. I think that continues this week. And if that happens, man, I just, they might be without Denzel Ward. Their cornerbacks in the back end are not equipped to deal with this passing attack. Like Cleveland has quietly been as good as their defensive line has been and they are carrying the day. Their run defense is top five in the NFL. Again, I said they have the seventh best pressure. rate. If those things like if Detroit lines to say look like if we got enough time with

Starting point is 00:23:40 Jared golf whether it's short area targets or JMO just burning these corners like they can put up some points. They just have to keep Jared golf clean and if they can do that which I think I lean in the direction that they can and I know I'm stepping out on a limb because we've already seen the lines offensive line fold under a good D line already previously but if they can Cleveland's given up the fifth fifth most passing touchdowns the eighth highest pass rating and their middle of road in success rate and they're quietly middle of the road against deep passing. It just comes down to can their pass rush and their D-line win. If not, it's a big day for JMO.

Starting point is 00:24:17 It's a big day for Jair golf. And Amon-Ross, Sam Brown is going to cook Miles Hardin, who right now is giving up a 75% catch rate and a 130 pass rating in his coverage. He doesn't have a chance against Amin Ra. I am not as optimistic about the Lions line as you are, like in terms of playing better the last couple weeks. I mean, like, when we threw there facing the Ravens without an omnibati, without Kyle Van Nuoy, with the banged up Travis Jones, like, that's not a good defensive line.

Starting point is 00:24:44 It's the weakest unit on the Ravens as an entire team, really. So I don't think it was, like, impressive of the Lions' offensive line to do what they did. And, you know, the week before against the Bears, like, the Browns are closer to the Packers in that regard than they are the other two opponents they face. So I'm not ready to say, like, that this offensive line is ready for a matchup like this. I do think they will get kind of bullied by the Browns' defensive line. And if they're shutting down the run and don't have that threat with Montgomery and Gibbs, that's kind of why I lean towards.

Starting point is 00:25:14 Again, I do not think the Browns are going to win this game. I am not saying that because the Lions defense will do very well against the Brown's offense. Like every defense does against the Brown's offense. But I do think we will come away saying, like, even if the Lions score some points because they're going to just over the course of a long game, I think we'll come away saying the Brown's defense won the battle. even if they lost the game, if that makes sense. The Browns defense, man.

Starting point is 00:25:38 Like, if they, I mean, they had such a nice draft getting the extra first-run pick for next year, getting Mason Taylor, who looks like a stud already. Carson Schwessinger is like already one of the, like, an above-average NFL linebacker from the jump. Like, he is really good. Grant Delpit is one of the better safeties in the league. Like, they have a really tough defense. If they can just, like, finally figure it out at course. quarterback and they do have some ammo in the draft next year.

Starting point is 00:26:07 The Browns might not be, and I don't want to give the Browns fans false hope because I know they've had plenty of that over the years, but like they could they could be competitive in a hurry. I want to save you here. Fitz from the comments. You said Mason Taylor. It's Mason Graham. Oh, did I say, oh, sorry about that.

Starting point is 00:26:23 Obviously, you know that, but just so the commentaries don't jump on you. Also, shout out to Malik Collins. He's arguably playing some of the best football of his career. Yeah. Yeah. It's been, I mean, defense is a lot of effort. So I wonder if like later in the year, if like the offense has been just terrible all season. That's what I'll worry about. It'll get worse. But they're not going to play complimentary football. Yeah. But right now, it's early enough that they're still pretty scary. Very, very scary, actually. Let autopilot manage your fantasy football lineup automatically so you never have to worry about last minute changes.

Starting point is 00:26:56 Auto swap inactive players and ensure your lineup is always optimized even when you can't be online. Take control with the flexibility to approve lineup changes via email or let autopilot handle everything. Stay ahead with My Playbook Autopilot, available now for Fantasy Pros premium subscribers at Fantasypros.com slash my playbook or on the Fantasy Pros app, try Premium for free right now by claiming your three-day trial of Fantasy Pros premium at Fantasypros.com slash premium. All right, guys, Titans at Texans, gross. Key question here. Houston is the lowest scoring team in football this season. Tennessee is also bottom five. The total on this game is down at 38.5. Actually, I want to see if it's still there because that's where it was, again, a couple

Starting point is 00:27:40 of days ago. I wonder if that, like Bill Saints has moved at all. It is, oh, it's moved up. It's now at 39 on Hard Rock Bet. So the total on this game is now at 39 on Hard Rock Bet. What is the path to this game going over? Basically, what is the path to these offenses showing us anything in this game, D-Bro? This is the lowest total of the week.

Starting point is 00:28:02 Am I right with that? Yes, I believe it's the second lowest total this season behind Steelers Jets in week one, which obviously did go over. Yeah, Minnesota and Pittsburgh's close, but they're not in the 30s. This is the only one in the 30s. The path for this going over, man,

Starting point is 00:28:17 really comes down to two things for me. Houston's offense, it has to like carry the day here. Tennessee's not going to put up a ton of points, regardless of how you look at this. So Houston has to like somehow find way C.J. Stroud's got to play better. It really, I think not only Stroud, but Nico has to have a big day. And he can do that versus this Tennessee past defense. Like, they're not very good, man. Like a lot of too high. Nico's not been great against it this year. I think it's more

Starting point is 00:28:46 of a Stroud result than it is Nico. But Legerius Sneed's not playing great. Although he's talking a little bit of smack to Nico Collins. Good luck. Nico's going to drop 150 on you this week's need. Not smart. You're just, you're not that dude anymore at this part of year. career to sit here and be talking that crap to one of the best wide receivers in the league godspeed um but the other thing i'll bring up here is that for houston to sit here and put up the points to push this to the over because i just don't think the tennessee titans have the capability with their with their offense it helps them if derrick stingly misses this game but still like calvin riddley ain't carrying no passing attack in the year 2025 it's just not happening dude i think

Starting point is 00:29:23 this also has to be a good day for the houston rushing attack which they can get there Tennessee cannot stop the run. Like they're fourth worst, an explosive run rate and rushing yards per game. I'm not telling you that Nick Chubb looks like yesterday year Nick Chubb, but against this run defense, he might surprise some people.

Starting point is 00:29:42 What do you think, Fitz? What's the path to the over here? Oh, man, trying to pin a picture of an interesting, fun Texans Titans game. That's a tall order word. But, well, I mean, you could say that the Texans haven't been, especially good against the run, like their run defense is 28th in DVOA.

Starting point is 00:29:59 They've given up four rushing touchdowns. And the Texans are also 26th in pressure rate, which is pretty disappointing for a team with Will Anderson and Deniel Hunter. Like, I don't get that. But if the Titans can run the ball effectively, keep like down in distance manageable and keep the Houston pass rush from getting the Cam Ward, who's been smacked around in the last first three weeks. I'm worried the kid isn't going to survive the season. But if that happens, maybe the Tennessee offense can be functional, you know, if they keep those guys from getting award. And then on the other side of the ball, the Titans defense is 29th in DVOA, like 31st in DVOA against the run.

Starting point is 00:30:40 So yes, the Houston offensive line is just garbage. But if it can be just decent this week, like you can certainly move the ball and score points on the Titans D. Yeah, I don't really want to talk any more about this game because it's gross. It's so gross, dude. So gross. All right, let's go to Panthers at Patriots. After all the fumbles from the New England backfield last week, is this the game? Travian Henderson finally gets unleashed fits.

Starting point is 00:31:08 Man, you would hope so if you are a Trayvian Henderson investor. Like, it had to be really frustrating for the Henderson investors that after Ramondre Stevenson coughed up his second fumble last week, Antonio Gibson was in on the next series, got a carry on first down, got another carry on second down, and then fumbled the ball away himself. So that was early third quarter. The good thing was after that Gibson fumble, from that point on, Henderson was the only New England running back who touched the ball the rest of the game. Like Henderson, his snap shares were 35% in week one, 31.7% in week two, up to 45.9% last week with the spike in usage in the second half. So maybe his snapshot hits 50% for the first time this week.

Starting point is 00:31:57 Like all we ask, please, Trevionn Henderson just hold onto the ball. Yeah. And he's not somebody who fumbled, you know, in college or anything. Not an issue. I mean, anyone can cough it up. But like it hasn't been a problem for him. It's clearly been a problem for Ramondre and Gibson over their careers. Yeah, for sure.

Starting point is 00:32:15 Dever, what do you think? Is this the game? If this isn't the game, I don't know what the game is going to be. man. I mean, to be honest, like this is the perfect matchup. This is the one that you unleash him. Both the other running backs have fumbled. And to Fitz's point, after the Ramandre put the ball on the ground in the third quarter, Henderson played 72% of the snaps after that for the rest of the game. He had a 63% route share. I think this is the week that they unleash Trayvion Henderson. The Panthers just, they're just giving up everything on the ground, man. Like their past defense has been really good,

Starting point is 00:32:50 but their run defense has been god awful still. I was hoping it was going to be better with some of the additions they made. Derek Brown coming back, but it has not worked out. It has not been the case. And if there was ever a game to get Travion Henderson going, it is this one against a Carolina run defense that's given up the eighth most rushing yards and the third highest yards out of contact per attempt.

Starting point is 00:33:09 And I guess the only thing that my takeaway with Trayvion right now is I'm kind of surprised that I know it's only 19 carries. I get that guys. I'm kind of surprised. like how little he's making guys miss. Like he has only a 5% miss tackle rate. So again, I think this is more small sample because the guy is explosive.

Starting point is 00:33:29 We saw that multiple years in college. I don't think he just lost all of that. But it is a little bit eyebrow raising, eyebrow raising to this point that he's done or hasn't done what he hasn't done with the work that he's been given. Where is he ranked for you, D, bro? Oh, I think I got him inside my top 24 running backs right now. Oh, wow.

Starting point is 00:33:50 Yeah, I've got him at RB 23. Like I do think that this is the game where he gets unleashed. I think he's probably going to play at least 50% of the snaps. And again, he hasn't looked like great on a per touch basis to this point. This, this is the matchup. This, this is the matchup. Like, we all saw like what Travis E.N did a week one and what he hasn't done since week one. Like, this is it, dude.

Starting point is 00:34:14 Fitz, did you say where you have him ranked? 31 for Henderson, 33 for Ramondra. I'm just not totally convinced that they do the right thing and play a Henderson more. Okay. Brable doesn't seem like the head coach that's going to sit there and force that Fitsy. Like the old school of guys like, nah, you're in the Brable doghouse,

Starting point is 00:34:32 baby. Like we remember trail on. He was like, Ramadre needs to figure this out because we need him to, you know, be a real significant part of this team. Like he was talking like he wants him to keep getting chances and figure it out. I don't know if that sounds going to play out.

Starting point is 00:34:46 If only, doghouse is deep and ugly, man. I know. If only. if only every coach, like, if only Vrebel was as quick to throw Ramandre in fumble jail as like Ron Rivera used to be to throw Gibson

Starting point is 00:34:58 into fumble jail. Oh, geez, man. Yeah. If you want a chance to win a signed Jemar Chase Bengals jersey for free, courtesy of our friends of pristineauction.com, all you need to do is head to fantasyprose.com slash contest, complete the form, and either download the Fantasyprose app,

Starting point is 00:35:15 leave a review for the podcast, or follow us on X, Instagram, or TikTok, at FantasyPron. pros. The more actions you complete, the more entries you receive. We will be announcing a winner right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Guys, how about Chargers at Giants? Cam Scadaboo is taking over the Giants backfield fits, but the Chargers defense is no joke. Where are you ranking him this week? Expert Consensus ranking has him at RB23. That's in half PPR scoring. Let me just make sure that I didn't update.

Starting point is 00:35:48 RB 22 now, so moved up just a spot. Yeah, so the Chiefs run defense, no joke either. And Scatibu 10 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown on the ground last year. And in addition to six yards per carry against that very good Chiefs run defense, Skadaboo's work in the passing game was even more exciting, I think. Like six catches, 61 yards on eight targets. This guy is so much fun. I wasn't sure how well Cam Scataboo's game was going to translate to the NFL.

Starting point is 00:36:18 like the physical tackle breaker going against a different breed of defenders and tacklers, it looks like it's going to translate very well, thank you. You know, Cam Scadaboo is just so hard to bring down. I've got him RB 14 this week. No Tyrone Tracy for the Giants. He dislocated his shoulder last week. The Giants backfield now belongs to Cam Scadaboo. And you would imagine the Giants are going to want to lean on him pretty.

Starting point is 00:36:48 heavily this week with rookie QB Jackson Dart making his first NFL start against this good Chargers defense. Debrough, you seemed to be in agreement here. Dude, I was hoping Fancy wasn't going to come here and throw cold water on this, man. I'm so in. I've got Cam Scataboo at RB16. I think he's going to crush this week. And I think it's gone under the radar. You can run the ball against the freaking chargers. This defense has given up the seventh highest explosive run rate and the highest miss tackle rate. Well, oh, guess what?

Starting point is 00:37:27 That cherry on top of all of that? They got the third lowest stuff rate. And they get Cam Scataboo this week. Dude, we're going to get some really good gifts and stuff out of Camp Scataboo and some good moments. I think he's going to have a really good game, man. Strong RB2. I'm all in for it.

Starting point is 00:37:45 And I think I had to include him because he was a little bit, I think it was like RB-25 when we did the primer video, which should be live on YouTube at the time you're watching this. I had to include him because I felt like with people with the roster composition, Cam Scadaboo was a player, you probably drafted as like an RB3, RB4, and you're like, at this point, it's Jackson Darts first game and the defense and you're so worried. And everybody's like, I don't know if I should play him or not.

Starting point is 00:38:10 You need to play Cam Scadaboo this week. He's an RB2. get him into your flex. He's probably a flex on most different rosters unless you just lost like James Connor, other injuries, Aaron Jones. You should be licking your chops to play Cam Scadaboo this week. Isn't the NFL so much more fun

Starting point is 00:38:28 where there's a running back like Mike Allstadt or, you know, sorry. Peyton Hillis-esque. Date you, but John Riggins. Yes. It's just impossible to tackle and just bounces defenders off them like ping pong ball. Like, Skadaboo is just going to be a joy to watch, man.

Starting point is 00:38:47 I can't wait to enjoy his career. I think it's a good point by you, D-Bro, on, like, he was not drafted to be a starter. So unless you've had injuries, like, you are going to have to choose to play him ahead of somebody that you had drafted ahead of him, who maybe even has played okay this season for you. Like, I got a great one. I know you're searching for a name worm. Yeah, go ahead. Cam Scadaboo or Chase Brown.

Starting point is 00:39:13 Come on. You know, we all want to say Cam Scataboo. Like. Yeah. Ironically, Chase Brown is actually ranked back to back with him in ECR. I feel like it has to be Scatibu. I'm still playing Cam Scatabut. Yeah, I was going to say Javante or Scataboo.

Starting point is 00:39:30 Cam. Cam. Cam. Cam. Just, exactly. That's my point. Yeah. I will be really excited to,

Starting point is 00:39:42 well, let's see what this. bro, then we'll move off at this point. Where is he rest of season for you? Ooh. I think he's a comfortable RB2, high-end RB2. I'm looking at my rest of season ranks, and I probably got him too low in there. But RB20, I've got him as my rest of season ranks. Okay. He's not giving, if he stays healthy, he's not giving this job back to Tyrone Tracy. I want to be very clear about that. I said that in the offseason. Brian Dayball has a history of utilizing one back. Again, pop quiz time, boys. Who was the OC with Peyton Hillis' monster season?

Starting point is 00:40:16 It was Brian freaking Dayball. Like this archetype of volume compiling back, he likes this archetype of back. It was Devin Singletary. It was Zach Moss, but Zach Moss wasn't good enough in Buffalo to take the job. So he's going to take this job and health permitted because of the, I understand his play style and as the touch is kind of like ramp up and the hits ramp up, there are worries there for me. But if he stays healthy, he's not letting go of this job.

Starting point is 00:40:43 He's not. Let's go to Eagles at Buccaneers. This is the last game in the early slate fits. Was the second half against the Rams an outlier for the Eagles offense? Or did they unlock something in their passing game for moving forward? I'd like to think they unlocked something. And if their passing game was locked, it was pretty much self-locking. Like, they just had not been throwing downfield very much.

Starting point is 00:41:07 But then, you know, they fell behind against the Rams and really opened up the offense in the second half. And they looked great. Like Jalen Hertz was throwing darts. A.J. Brown was making plays. Hopefully we get more of that this week. Debrot, what do you think? Yeah, I think this is a case. The Eagles felt like the person that locked their keys in the car.

Starting point is 00:41:25 You can't drive anywhere when you don't have your freaking keys, man. And the keys to this offense and no shade against Sequin Barclay, but it should be the passing attack and stuff, man. Like, Sequan's per touch efficiency has not been great this year. I mean, that has to get noted here. And you have two of the best wide receivers, arguably the best wide receiver tandem. in the entire freaking NFL. And I think what really is going to kind of like push the Eagles in this direction this week especially is there against another past funnel defense.

Starting point is 00:41:52 Like the Buccaneers are an elite run defense. Their top 12 in stuff rate, lowest miss tackle rate and yards before contact per attempt. So looking at just this matchup, yes, the Eagles should lean into their passing attack. Can I tell you definitively that they're not going to be hardheaded and try to run the ball in the first quarter and then find out, oh, this is probably a really stupid idea. and then change course, possibly. That feels maybe more likely that they pivot partway through the game. I hope they don't wait until the freaking fourth quarter this time and say,

Starting point is 00:42:21 oh, hey, guess what? We should probably do this thing, this other thing that we're really good. By the way, the Rams would like a word about that best wide receiver tandem thing. Oh, well, yes, you're right. Good shout out. I want to ask on the other side of this game, what are our expectations for Emekaibuka with Mike Evans out, Dibro? he's going to get a crap ton of volume.

Starting point is 00:42:45 Like, dude, last week he had almost a 28% target share. And that was one of the things that I was, not that I was talking, saying Mecca's early season production was fraudulent, but it was very much carried by touchdowns. Like he was living in that like 18 to 19% target share range. It wasn't as high as I think, like,

Starting point is 00:43:03 people would believe just looking at the fantasy production. So last week, seeing him garner a wide receiver one type of, workload where he had a 27.5% target share. He had a 35% first read share. Those were really good things because you're either one of the wide receivers that is the archetype of player that can command volume and earn volume at that type of clip or you're not. And it's that freaking easy. So like we get into this like realm of like projecting guys to earn better target shares than maybe their archetype or their talent allows them to do. That was really encouraging to see from a mecca. I'm,

Starting point is 00:43:42 worried about him this week because I'm worried about do they do the eagles put quinyon Mitchell on him because quinyon has followed guys like he followed Adams last week on almost 80% of his routes if that happens I'm worried about a mecca's outlook but I think the volume is definitely going to be there because baker doesn't have a whole lot of other options yeah fits de bro kind of hit on the follow-up I was going to ask which is the volume is clearly going to be higher at least we expect but um so will the defensive attention that's exactly that's the push pull on that. And Egbuka was just sort of maximizing a modest target share early on.

Starting point is 00:44:19 Then last year, or last week, I should say, spike in target share. And you figure he's going to see more targets this week with no Evans. But yeah, maybe he gets locked up by Quinyan Mitchell. So, yeah, I've got him ranked like wide receiver 16. What about you, D, bro? I've got him. I was actually pulling that up. One of my worries here, not to decide.

Starting point is 00:44:41 I've got my water receiver 18 just because of the volume. One of my worries, and this is a quiet worry, we have to see if this is going to pan out. I don't know if Josh Grizzard is any good, man. And just trying to read the small T-leys of stuff, like the things that we saw Liam Cohen adjust and do different, like when the entire offense got like just cratered to nothing and Kate Autin has put into a power slot role and he has a few monster games, what scared me about the way that Grizzar deployed this offense in previous games. Like, just this is a perfect parallel to this.

Starting point is 00:45:15 The week against the Texans, when Mike Evans is getting shadowed by Derek Stingley, and the way that you changed, you flip this matchup and you put it back in your favor is you move Mike Evans, put him in the freaking slot. And Derek Stingley is not following him to the slot. Like that's just what, it's a cheat code. He didn't do it. He just put Mike Evans out there on the boundary and said, sure, just go win. It's cool.

Starting point is 00:45:40 Go win. If he does that this week versus a mecca, but the bucks are going to struggle as a passing attack because they don't have a counter punch. So I'm worried about is Grizzard not a great OC and did the Liam Cohen magic kind of like leave out of the room? Because little things like that where you make it easier for your offense and you exploit different matchups,

Starting point is 00:46:00 those are the things you want to press the easy button for your quarterback and your offense. I don't know if dude is good enough to do that. Let's go to the late afternoon, late Sunday. at Rams, which, by the way, I think it's the highest total of the week of 49 and a half on hard rock bet. I actually really like the under on that, truthfully, but there are a couple of studs in this game that we are definitely very happy to be starting in our fantasy lineups. I want to ask you guys about two of them.

Starting point is 00:46:25 Who finishes better at their position this week? Jonathan Taylor or Puka Nakua. And then also, who finishes better at their position this season if we guaranteed health for these guys? if you look at the consensus rankings on the flex rankings, because obviously they're different positions. Jonathan Taylor is third overall. Puka Nakuwa is fourth overall.

Starting point is 00:46:47 Taylor, of course, is behind a couple of running backs in the consensus rankings. Puka is behind nobody at wide receiver. But how do you guys see this playing out? Who's better this week and for the season? Dibrow, start with you, Jonathan Taylor or Pooka Nukua. This is not my bias showing. I promise it's not, guys. I'm so sure.

Starting point is 00:47:04 This is Puka. This is Puka now and this is Puka now. and this is Puka rest of season. Puka's, I mean, dude, he hasn't scored any receiving touchdowns. I know he got one on the ground. He's scored zero receiving touchdowns, and the dude is the runaway wide receiver one in fantasy points per game right now with zero receiving touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:47:22 He's scoring 24.5 fantasy points per game with one freaking touchdown on the year, one total. That's it. And he's not slowing down this week, where this is a week where I'm not saying JT slows down, but I think like tempering expectations because the Rams do have a really good run defense. Like they're allowed the sixth lowest explosive run rate, seventh lowest miss tackle rate. So they are a good run defense.

Starting point is 00:47:47 So I think Jonathan Taylor has a quiet, not a quiet week. Like he's still going to get 20 to 25 opportunities. He's still probably going to score touchdown. So like I'm just saying this is not a smash Taylor type of matchup. Whereas dude, Pooka Nakua, cults run single high at 55% of their defensive snaps. Puka's usage has been. been just, Puka's usage has been ridiculous the whole entire season, but versus single high. Dude, he's got a 46.3% target here. He's got 5.6 yards per route run. These are video game

Starting point is 00:48:20 type of metrics. These are ridiculous numbers. Like, this is Madden on easy mode type of numbers. So Pook is my answer for both of these. Fits. I'll say Pook on both counts too. Like, he is a reception machine like 29 catches leading the league like remember that Cooper Cup season in 2021 I was going to bring that up yeah it was a 145 catches that you heard almost 2,000 receiving yards for Cooper Cup like if Puka stays healthy all year he could put up those types of numbers fit fits to your point he's on pace right now for a hundred and ninety eight targets 164 receptions almost 1900 receiving arts 1887 That's just stupid, man.

Starting point is 00:49:06 Do you know off the top of your head who's second in the NFL in receptions right now? Oh, good Lord. I don't. That's Jake Ferguson. What? Jake Ferguson only has two fewer catches than Pukinuku. Jake Ferguson is on pace for 153 catches. That is a sultry stat, Fidsey.

Starting point is 00:49:28 That's very well done. That's nice. It's not on the same level as Pooka. but I do think it is worth like giving some praise to Jonathan Taylor also who is having a ridiculous right. 110 year rushing yards per game

Starting point is 00:49:43 averaging a touchdown per game although obviously on the ground those all came in the same matchup. Is he on a 2000 year on pace right now? Like I'm asking. I'm about to look this up. Is he? I can't do that math that quickly.

Starting point is 00:49:54 He has 338 rushing yards through three games. Here, I'm looking it up. Whatever that pans out to. I'm letting pro football reference do the hard work for me. You know, a couple years ago

Starting point is 00:50:02 whenever it was. 1915. 19 and he has he is he's finished the last each of the last two weeks he's been rb one on the week a couple of years ago before the injury everyone was saying like nick chub was the best pure runner in the league even if he wasn't necessarily putting up the best numbers like i think jonathan taylor gets that title now he is the best pure runner in the league yeah i mean he he this looked really good and i mean i i think just more versatility more explosion i think than like Derek Henry.

Starting point is 00:50:35 And Henry is great. And like I just think he's got a little more. I think he's better inside than Bijon Robinson is. My takeaway with JT2 is the injuries. I was lower on him and I'll own that than consensus. Like I did not have good things to say because of Daniel Jones, the target chair, everything like that.

Starting point is 00:50:55 The injuries really hurt him last year. And that's hard. That's a hard thing to quantify and know because we don't, we're not in the room and we don't know. But like looking at the. per rush metrics last year were horrible for JT, he's bounced back. Like he's all the way back to like that,

Starting point is 00:51:09 like what Fitsy was talking about, being like in the conversation or leading the pack for the best pure rusher in the NFL right now. Like the injuries were really, really bothersome for him last year. It's funny. I ranked him ahead of consensus like for draft season. And yet I barely drafted him anywhere because I kept just going up.

Starting point is 00:51:27 I liked him at cost, but I just kept liking other players. There was always one player that fell to me that I liked a little it better, usually at a different position. You know, I like, I like the receiver there or felt like it was a league I wanted to take a swing on Bowers or something like that. So I didn't really put my money on the house. You didn't know, you didn't know that?

Starting point is 00:51:45 I mean, that's what I, you know, we get in the comments these days. It's like, come on, guys. Like, I'm like, dude, it's Daniel. If you told me the entire league stayed healthy this year, like I don't think this is, I think Jonathan Taylor finishes as RB1 this year, like assuming health. I, I legitimately think very highly of him. But Puckoo has been awesome also. So that's why I put them together.

Starting point is 00:52:03 Let's go to the next game here. Jaguars at 49ers. Ricky Pearsall is ranked three spots higher than Brian Thomas Jr. in this game game in the rest of the season, excuse me, not rest of season, in the expert consensus rankings for this week. But the rest of season rankings have Thomas eight spots ahead of Pearsall. Do both of those sound right to you? So again, I'll read that again because I kind of stumbled over that. Piercel is three spots higher for this week in the consensus rankings.

Starting point is 00:52:27 But Thomas is eight spots higher for rest of season in the consensus rankings. Fitz, do those both sound right to you? or would you change either? Yeah, no, I understand that disparity, and I have that same type of disparity in my own rankings for Ricky Pearsall and Brian Thomas Jr. for week four and the rest of the season. Part of the reason I have Pearsall ranked wide receiver 12 this week is because George Kittle isn't playing and Joanne Jennings might not play.

Starting point is 00:52:52 But those guys are both going to be playing soon and then I might not have Piercel ranked in the top 20 or top 25. Brian Thomas Jr., things are just so bad right now. it seems like he has the yips. He's caught seven out of 25 targets, a 28% catch rate. It's really hard to confidently endorse him this week when things are so bad. But we've seen how good this guy can be. Like, I don't think it's crazy to think BTJ can get the train back on the tracks at some point

Starting point is 00:53:19 and be something closer to the Brian Thomas Jr. We saw last year. What do you think, D. Bro? I think Pearsall should be ahead of him and both of them. I worry about George Kettle coming back. I'm not that worried about Brandon Iuke. We saw the statement saying that he's nowhere close to 100% or seeing the field. Juan Jennings, at this point of the season, he's already like really, really banged up. Is he going to make it through the season? I don't know. So this could be legit, the CMC, Pierceall and George Kittles show. And if that's the case, he's got enough volume, man. And Ricky P has been freaking fantastic. Like we all like, everybody's like, oh, can he really step forward and be the guy? Can he be the guy that, you know, first,

Starting point is 00:54:01 wide receiver and with the final two games of last year real when the 49ers put it at his feet and said can you step up and be the number one guy we needed you to be and he's wide receiver 16 he's got a 21% target share he's averaging 93.7 receiving yards he's got 2.6 yards per route run and he's commanding almost a 28% first reach here outside of the target share the rest of those are wide receiver one numbers so I don't have a lot of questions about ricky p I got tons of questions about brian Thomas Jr. whether it's Liam Cohen, that offense, Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr. himself, and whether this is his play or in his head or the wrist injury, because again, we don't know the severity of that. They could say he's a full practice and that doesn't mean anything, man. Like,

Starting point is 00:54:46 these guys practice reports and I'm not saying, I'm not conspiracy theorying. Like, but I've been around fantasy and the NFL long enough that we see every single year reports, documentaries, Netflix specials come out and it's like, oh, this dude was way more hurt than we thought. Or he was a full-time practice participant. But now we have video stuff on the Netflix documentary saying they're like, bro, I couldn't even make a fist. I couldn't even pick up like a soda to drink with that arm.

Starting point is 00:55:14 Like if ever, would y'all be this surprised? If this week's game, we get one of those sideline clips like everybody was doing with Joe Burrow before. Like, look, Brian Thomas Jr.'s not grabbing his water bottle with that hand. Uh-oh. Like, I'm not going to be sure. shocked. So I think it's just I'm going with talent and I'm going with the healthy guy and who's producing Ricky Pearsall. Let's go to Ravens at Chiefs. The Ravens defense has been really bad in

Starting point is 00:55:40 their two games against non-Browns offenses and their entire starting defensive line is now injured, although Travis Jones did return to practice on Thursday. It was in a limited capacity. Obviously Namdi Maddipuque is still not going to be playing this week. We don't know if and when he'll even be back with his next stuff. And of course, Kyle Van Nuys, still not practically. You know, it's very bad situation. You sound so sad. I know.

Starting point is 00:56:04 Listen to the phrasing of this question. Oh, my goodness. Me and Vincy are grinning because you sound so painful laying all this out. I need to send worm a Hallmark card. I know. You were like, the Ravens defense is playing so bad. Like, I was like, oh, this dude's going through it. Like, no, no.

Starting point is 00:56:21 I mean, obviously it has been tough. I, I, I, I, I, I, you might remember guys that I did kind of I was, when I was pushing back on the Ravens. Okay, would you give you an audible hug here, buddy? No, no, no. What I'm saying is like, I was, I kind of predicted that the run defense was going to be a problem this year. And it's been much worse than I expected.

Starting point is 00:56:38 Of course, I didn't expect this level. But that was my concern for the team going into the season. So it's not really even that surprising, you know, to me and crushing. It's just, it's kind of what I expected just on a more extreme version of it. And of course, the injuries. What I really feel bad about it and actually like kind of crestfallen for is, is Matt of Weak, who's a great player. and a seemingly great person who has possibly not going to play again type of injury.

Starting point is 00:57:01 Like it's really unknown right now what's going on with his neck injury. But it's just very scary. But setting all that aside, the reason I bring this up is to say, Isaiah Pacheco has also been super bad, but he now gets to go up against this really beaten up and, you know, bad and no-depth defensive line. So I'm wondering what kind of game you guys are expecting from Pacheco, considering his poor start to the season, but that this is actually a very,

Starting point is 00:57:25 a good matchup. And even if the Chiefs end up having to, if the Ravens' offense, you know, plays really well, even in a tough matchup against the Chief's defense, well, maybe not that tough. But, you know, a matchup that's given them, you know, problems in the past. The Chiefs will have to throw a lot. So you would think, well, maybe Pacheco doesn't do that well. But I think there will be scoring opportunities. Plus, like I said, the beat-up defensive line.

Starting point is 00:57:45 So, Fitz, I'll start with you on this one. What kind of game are you expected from Pacheco, given all that? Even if he runs more effectively than he has in his first three games, and he's only averaging 3.7 yards per carry with his longest run of the season going for just 10 yards. I don't know if he gets enough work to really move the needle in fantasy. Like Pacheco, the snap shares are around 50%. He hasn't had more than 10 carries in a game. And he's only had six targets all season with just three in the last two weeks.

Starting point is 00:58:14 So I don't really see a big game for him. And if he does go for 100 yards rushing against your Ravensworm, then it's safe to totally abandon hope. Yeah, if you can't take advantage of this matchup, I think that's a fair point. Debrough, what do you think? I said exactly what I said in the primer. I'll say again here. Baltimore is a terrible run defense.

Starting point is 00:58:39 If you're willing to flex Pacheco again at this point, Godspeed. Like, he's not playing well. He's on an offense that has had. If he can't get it done against the Giants, he's not going to get it done. I mean, if you're not, well, let me ask you this, Debrough. They don't want to run the ball either. They don't even want to run the ball. If you're not starting him in this matchup, shouldn't you just drop him?

Starting point is 00:59:00 Why is he even on your team? Yeah, like I, dude, I don't disagree at all. Like, he's on a, he's not playing effectively on a per touch basis. He's in an offense that doesn't want to freaking run the ball. So even if you want to talk about volume, he's not going to get there. The chiefs that's already told you that they don't want to do that. They're not going to feature him. If anything, I'll take a left field shot on freaking Bershard Smith catching a wheel route in this

Starting point is 00:59:25 game than I will on freaking flexing Isaiah freaking Pacheco. And to that point, the Ravens have been bad versus receiving backs over the last two years. So I would rather bet on that than anything with Pacheco. No, just I'm not, man. Like, it all lines up that he's not getting usage. The team doesn't want to run the freaking ball. He's not good at running the ball. Tell me, would you all be surprised or if you're not betting this?

Starting point is 00:59:55 but who leads them and carries this week? Isaiah Pacheco or Kareem Hunt? Hunt? Probably Hunt? Maybe 50, 50. By the way, I don't have a good feel on the total for this game. It's at 49. I would bet a lot of money on Chiefs plus two and a half.

Starting point is 01:00:15 I think that line is a mistake. The Ravens have beaten the Chiefs in this era of Lamar and Mahomes. Oh, I think the Ravens are going to hand it to him, man. They've only beaten them once ever. They get out of themselves when they face Kansas City. It's in Kansas City. They just, they freak them. Even when they are the better team, they get in their own heads.

Starting point is 01:00:33 And they always, they get away from who they are. They always look bad against Steve Spagnolo. Like I don't understand why the chiefs are dogs. And also the ref in this game, Warren Sharp was just tweeting this out. I forget the ref's name, but I just saw this earlier this morning that lifetime in games that the Ravens have played with this ref, they're 0 and 3, and the Chiefs lifetimes in game with this ref, are 6 and 0. So, like, it just is very much going against the Ravens,

Starting point is 01:01:04 even setting aside the fact that they're always bad against the Chiefs. You know we're going to get one of those moments where Mahomes, like, does that crap where he runs along the sideline, and then he, like, tries to fall over and pretend, like, somebody tried to, like, take his head off whenever they touched his thigh or something. I've told, like, obviously I would love to be wrong, but I really do not think the Ravens are winning this game. I will be very shocked, honestly.

Starting point is 01:01:27 I think Chiefs plus two and a half is a smash. But I would love to be wrong. So we'll see what happens. I will be the Ravens fan for this. I think they win. I think the Chiefs just don't have the firepower, man. I appreciate you taking up the torch for me here. Bears at Raiders.

Starting point is 01:01:44 Caleb Williams and the Bears are coming off their best game of the season, but it did come against the Talus defense. That makes everybody look like they have the best game of their season. And how will Chicago follow it up against the Raiders D, bro? I think well. And I think this Raiders defense is slowly evolving into the Raiders defense that I thought we were going to get this year. And they're not very good.

Starting point is 01:02:03 Their secondary is not very good. Like they're given up the seventh highest highest highest rating and 10th most passing yards per game. I think it's another opportunity for Roma Dune's 8 to just eat, man. Lots of single high coverage. He's got a 29.6% target share. I think Caleb's going to feature him. And I think Caleb's going to have another. a day. By the way, just because I only just mentioned this, and this came out a minute ago on Twitter,

Starting point is 01:02:26 Kyle Van Nuoy was back at practice for the Ravens for whatever that's worth. Let's go. Let's go. All right. So, all right, Ravens minus two and a half. Go for it. No. He's your first course, people. Yeah. Love to see it. Yeah, Kyle Van Nuoy moves the line five points for me. Fitz what do you think on Bears Raiders? Well, the Raiders are 26th in DVOA against the past. their 21st in pressure rate. So Caleb kind of goes from one soft match up against Dallas into another against Las Vegas. He's QB3 in fantasy scoring. Sixth in passer rating among quarterbacks with more than one starts.

Starting point is 01:03:04 Tied for second and touchdown passes. 11th in passing yardage. It's been pretty good. And he's adding rushing value too with 97 rushing yards in a touchdown. Looks like a pretty good spot for him. And, you know, maybe this Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams, his marriage is going to work after all. Debrough, have you started to, I'm guessing the answer to this is no, but do you feel any

Starting point is 01:03:26 differently about like Caleb's long-term outlook after the start of this season or no? I don't want to sound like just the Caleb Hater constantly. I do think it has to get pointed out that like I think it was three or all of it. All of his passing touchdowns were against terrible blown assignments by Dallas. So I don't think we've seen. a big enough sample, especially him versus like actually good defenses. I think he's gotten a lot of Cupcake matchups. He's going to get another one this week, not saying that he won't. But I want to see Caleb perform better when things are not going his way in the sense of when a team can pressure you

Starting point is 01:04:07 and it's against a good, like not like a freaking Minnesota Vikings, but like a top seven to 10 defense that can get after him. That's the litmus test of like playing on schedule and backfoot rip it and playing better against pressure instead of trying to hero ball and falling back into the things. That's what I want to see for Caleb Williams. He does that. I'm more in the in the camp of believing than I am still skeptical. Sunday night football Packers at Cowboys.

Starting point is 01:04:39 What is the Cowboys passing game going to look like against what is a great defense? and also that they are in fact without CD Lamb. Fitz will start with you. Probably not pretty. The Packers are really applying the heat on quarterbacks and they're giving up 4.8 yards per pass attempt. And I just, I don't know if George Pickens can be a lead receiver in place of Lamb. That was kind of one of the things that had us excited. Maybe people who wanted to invest in Pickens that he didn't have to be a lead receiver with CD Lamb around. he could just kind of do his thing. Like I don't, he doesn't really run the whole route tree.

Starting point is 01:05:17 Like his thing is making big plays down the sideline. And asking him to be a one-for-one CD-Lam replacement just doesn't work. So I think they're going to struggle. What do you think, D-Brough? I mean, I think what are we going to see from the Cowboys' offense? We're going to see a crappeton of George Pickens and Jake Ferguson. So I don't know how much. success they're going to have and I think a lot of that comes down to I mean they're down some

Starting point is 01:05:46 offensive linemen I don't know how much time DAC is going to have but I think that pickens and Jake Ferguson are going to get a crap ton of targets like pencil them both in for like eight to 12 targets they're going to get featured and historically George Pickens is very good against single high like that's his bread and butter so I've got a little more hope against like if you were to tell me the Packers drop into like a too high shell then good luck I mean Ferguson is would be it and Pickens is going to struggle. But if the Packers match him up with single high, I think Pickens can have some success because he's going to get force-fed volume.

Starting point is 01:06:22 But I'm not telling anybody it's going to be pretty because Michael Parsons is in that backfield all freaking day standing over Dak Prescott. It's not going to be good. How many sacks is Micah getting in this game fits? I'll say just one because he's going to get double and triple teamed all game. but like collectively, I think the Packers are getting like. Just one. The Packers are going to get six, but Micah just gets one because of all the defensive attention.

Starting point is 01:06:49 And Debrough mentioned it. They've got, they lost their starting center, Cooper Beebe. He's not playing first round rookie Tyler Booker. He's out for this game. So like down a couple of starting offensive linemen against this Packers pass rush is just not a good scene for the Cowboys. Debra. I'll take the over. I think Parsons sacks him twice.

Starting point is 01:07:12 Like, if I was a betting book, I would sit the line at one and a half. All right. Let's go to, we have two games on Monday night football. Jets at Dolphins is the first one. Breece Hall now has had back-to-back tough games coming off of his great week one. He now gets the Dolphins defense in a possible get-right game. Dibro predict his stat line. Dude, this is a fun nerd experience for me.

Starting point is 01:07:33 I love this question because I like went through, I got into deep in the bag. I was like, all right, we're going to go rushing race. We're looking at rushing volume. I want to sit here and see how many project. Like I went like full projections mode with this. So and then afterwards I compared it against what's live on Fantasy Pro site. That's pretty freaking close, man. So I have Breeze Hall for 16 rushing attempts, 80 rushing yards, two catches, 21 receiving yards.

Starting point is 01:07:59 And I'll give him a score. I know the Redsons been more brave on Allen, so maybe that goes sideways. The site had him for 14.4, 62.4, 3 catches, and 20. So comparatively, I'm a little more bullish because I think the Jets are, I mean, the, the dolphins run defense has got awful. So I'm more ceiling focused here. But 18 touches versus the site, 17 and a half. I have 101 total yards and the site for Fantasy Pros. We haven't projected for 88.4. So pretty close. Fitz. Yeah, I'm actually pretty close to DeBrow on the rushing prediction and pretty close to our projections at fantasy pros with the receiving.

Starting point is 01:08:42 So I've got 17 for 75 on the ground, three for 28 in the air. I'll say no touchdowns. But like opponents are running on the Dolphins defense at the highest rate in the league. Like Miami opponents have run the ball on 52.8% of their offensive snaps. Interestingly enough, the Jets are being run on at the second highest rate, 51.3%. So, you know, this series has been interesting. Dolphins have kind of had the Jets number. And, you know, I was surprised when I saw that Miami opened its three-point favorites,

Starting point is 01:09:15 but then I kind of remember the recent history has been going in the dolphins direction. So maybe we see like a run-heavy attack for both teams here, although I don't know. I can't see the dolphins just pounding away with the running game. But you never know. This is going to be, this is kind of a sneaky, interesting game, I think. Last game of the week, Bengals at Broncos, Cincinnati got completely destroyed in week three, and you might be able to point to the matchup as particularly tough. But a game at the Broncos is not that much easier for a backup quarterback.

Starting point is 01:09:51 So how well do we think the Bengals offense will bounce back Debrough? They won't. They're not going to bounce back against this defense. The same problems that Jake Browning had against Minnesota, tell me if this sounds familiar. Now he faces a defense with Denver that has the 12th best pressure rate. and they blitz at the third highest freaking rate. Sound pretty similar to Brian Flores? Mm-hmm.

Starting point is 01:10:14 Because it is. It is. A lot of man coverage. Jemar Chase is going to get wrapped up of Patrick's Retain this week, so that's not good. They cannot run the ball. The Bengals have arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL. Poor Chase Brown, dude. He has the lowest yards before contact per attempt in the NFL to work with.

Starting point is 01:10:33 Not even a full freaking yard. 0.4.3. this man is getting contacted before he even gets three feet past the freaking offensive line. So good luck. Like you're starting Jamar Chase and outside of Jamar Chase, I don't, and you're just starting Jamar Chase in principle because of based off a talent and volume, it's not because if you took the name of Jamar Chase out of this, do I want to go up against Patrick Freakinsertain? No, I do not.

Starting point is 01:11:03 But outside of that, I don't want to start a single other bengal this week. None. Fitz? I thought Chase Brown was actually averaging negative yards before contact per attempt. Is that wrong? Maybe I'm wrong on that. But at any rate, the Bengals' offensive line ranks dead last in the league and the adjusted line yards run blocking metrics.

Starting point is 01:11:24 So, yeah, it's just hard to see any hope for the running game. And then the Bengals have given up 10 sacks and face, arguably the best pass rush in the league, or maybe it's Green Bay is, you know, one of the best pass rushes in the league. Nick Benito is just like that dude is darn near unblockable for the Broncos. He is just so good. I don't see much hope for the Bengals offense, honestly. Fancy, you're almost right. Chase Brown, 0.02 yards before contact freeze.

Starting point is 01:11:55 He's barely at the positive baby. That is. By a toenail. Blutarsky. So bad. Dude, it's so bad. On that love. know we'll go ahead and wrap up the show because we went a little long.

Starting point is 01:12:11 Best luck to everybody here in week four, for D-Bro and Fitz. I'm Ryan Warmly. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at Fantasyprose at Fantasyprose. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com Fantasy pros.

Starting point is 01:13:00 Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

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Starting point is 01:13:26 Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

Starting point is 01:13:49 We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcast presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend, Janet.

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The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - The Biggest Fantasy Football Questions For Each Team in Week 4 (Ep. 1736)

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