The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - Top 10 Breakout Candidates | Middle & Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Ep. 1664)

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.

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Starting point is 00:00:26 Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros football podcast. I'm Ryan Warmely. Joined, as always, by Derek Brown.

Starting point is 00:00:40 Well, not as always, I guess, but joined as sometimes by Derek Brown and by Jake Sealy from the athletic. Guys, we were talking some breakout candidates here. We'll be focusing, of course, some guys in the middle and late rounds. We're going to do this countdown style, five to one from each of you,

Starting point is 00:00:55 ending with our number one breakout candidates. D-Bro, how are you feeling? the day after Fantasy Fest. I was like we do one or two segments on Fest. I haven't podcasted with you forever. And I already feel like I hear the hints in your voice of, oh, God, another show with this dude. I'm doing good, Worm.

Starting point is 00:01:15 Love you. I love you too. Also, you might notice the two hours of the fest that I was hosting. I did the first two hours yesterday, which probably everybody should go check out. It is available. You can rewatch it on YouTube. You can pick and choose your favorite segments with favorite guests if you want.

Starting point is 00:01:29 We had JJ Zacharison, Andy Barron's, Tara Roberts, Dave Richards, Jamie Eisenberg, Justin Boone, Jake Sealy. Tons of people on there. It was a super fun time. I was going to say, bury the lead there, dude. Come on. Yeah. Well, I was kind of going in order of when folks appeared on this show. But it was, you know, six hours if you include the hour on Twitch at the end, the after party of a fantasy coverage.

Starting point is 00:01:49 So everybody should go chuck that out. There's a best of the best available audio version on, like, Spotify, and wherever you listen to your podcast also. So we had a ton of fun. I will point out, Debrough, that in the two hours that I was hosting. I don't think we discussed a single Ravens player. So you can, uh, you know, back off of this stance finally. It's fine. Contractually, I know that you're, you're obligated to mention the Ravens at least once every

Starting point is 00:02:12 show, even if it's not a player, seeing as we've done here. So I get it. So that counts. Okay. Check. That's, but I will say if you do want to watch the mock draft, uh, probably that was fun because Dibro and I were taking shots at each other the entire time, including I almost cursed live on your stream.

Starting point is 00:02:28 It was a lot of fun, dude. Well, Jake, besides, you know, hopping on to the fest, what do you have going on these days, especially over at the athletic? I mean, the full draft kit is basically almost done at this point. But I will say I actually did one that by the suggestion of one of the heads of all the New York Times said the draft mistakes that people make because I brought it up in a meeting that we were doing. Somebody asked me that in a Q&A. And so it's the biggest draft mistake everybody makes every single year. Well, not everybody. But you guys know this, wasting your bench.

Starting point is 00:02:57 So if you want to go see how you stop wasting your bench, you can check that out. That sounds good. I know that's been a talking point for you a lot this summer as we've done, you know, more shows together is the not wasting your bench. I know that's a big, you know, point of your. So definitely like great piece of advice. Everybody should go check out everything that Jake is working on over at the athletic. Which ties in today's piece. I mean, what we're doing today.

Starting point is 00:03:19 These are 10 pieces that should be on your bench instead of those replaceable players. Yeah, these guys are mostly not starters. So, I mean, some of them might be. But yeah, a lot of bench spots, guys, that can break out that we're going to be looking at. Reminder for everybody that all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com slash rankings. Guys, let's dive right in. Like I said, we're going to go five to one here. So we'll be ending with kind of the biggest breakout candidate.

Starting point is 00:03:42 But obviously, these are guys that, you know, we believe in to some degree all 10 of these names. Jake, we'll start with you. Who's your number five? My number five, I'm going to quarterback first. I'm going to go to Bryce Young. I know a lot of people saw the end of last year and talked about his passing. side and let's be real. He looked better than he had at any point in his NFL career. But I think the more interesting part for me was the rushing. And it's not like he's running for 700 yards over the course of

Starting point is 00:04:06 the season. It's just that he started calling his own number down the stretch, which partly hurt, you know, dinged Hubbard a little bit. But I never thought that Bryce Young was going to step into the NFL and be like, ah, six, seven, 800 yards. But can he be in that realm of three to four hundred where he chips in five, six, seven on the ground just because he has that size and ability to take his number. I know people are going to say, oh, he's not big. No, but he's thick. And for the height that he is in the thickness, he can handle a few of those runs, handles a few of those shots at the goal line. And again, if he runs for five, six, seven touchdowns on a top of three to four hundred yards, oh, by the way, he were talking about last year who did this for the first time ever in his

Starting point is 00:04:43 career, Baker Mayfield. And no, I don't think Bryce is going to throw for 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns. But I'm just saying when you add that facet of we were hoping to see the passing carrying over to this season, if that does at all. And he adds that dimension. And he adds that to mention, we might be looking at Bryce Young by the end of the year as a fringe QB1, and he's outside the top 20. If you're going to double dip late, McCarthy is a great one, but I don't think that Bryce Young's that far behind McCarthy for their potential ceilings. I really agree with this call.

Starting point is 00:05:12 When I look at where he's, he's QB 22 in ECR right now, and I look at that and I go, I feel reasonably confident, actually, he's going to finish better than QB 22, assuming health because there is some of that crushing element. 22 is wrong. One way or the other. But the problem, I think, is like, it's just such a deep position that I'm like, well, who am I moving down?

Starting point is 00:05:33 Like, if I really want to play on my flag and say he should be higher, I don't know who I would move down. I'll tell you, I have him in front of Tua, because Tua is QB 17. Like, everything was the one. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:05:43 I have him in front of Gino because does Gino, yeah, had a good season, but is he really going to see a better season with the Raiders? He's going to be QB 16, 17, 18. And those are fine quarterbacks. but I don't want QB 16. I don't even want QB 14. I want somebody you can potentially be top 10.

Starting point is 00:05:59 And like I said, 22 is wrong. Like if he gets the top 10, cool. Yay, we're all super excited. If he's a bust, you move on to the next one. Maybe you double tapped with McCarthy or Love or Stroud on a bounce back season. And that's why I'm going for him. It's just remarkable how many names I like at the position. I mean, look, we're into the early to mid-20s at the position.

Starting point is 00:06:19 And the names are Bryce Young, Michael Pettix, Jr., Gino, Smith, Matthew Stafford, if his back's, okay, Cam Ward number and overall pick. I'm like these, these guys are not even QB2s in a lot of cases, some of those names. So it's just a remarkably deep position. Debrough, obviously the guy in this like 20s range that you like most is JJ McCarthy. That's an old hat at this point. We know that besides J.J. McCarthy is Bryce Young one of your favorites in this range? Because I think Jake is out a great case.

Starting point is 00:06:45 And we kind of even already saw it last year. I think Bryce Young is a great target late for the position. Yeah, he's a fantastic target, man, especially in Superflex draft. He's a fantastic target. And for everything that Jake laid out, and just to give more context to that breakout weeks 12 through 18, he was the QB8 and fantasy points per game. The dude averaged 25.4 rushing yards per game,

Starting point is 00:07:07 which might not sound like a lot. If he did that over the entirety of the full season, that would have been the 12th best amongst quarterbacks. So the line that I was kind of staring at, Jake, I want to get your opinion on this. Bryce Young or Trevor Lawrence, because I feel like those two, Like, it is what and what with me.

Starting point is 00:07:27 I put it this way. They're almost, almost back to back for me. Trevor Lawrence. Yeah. So worst case, Trevor Lawrence is last year, Trevor Lawrence, before, obviously, the injury. So, like, if you want to say, hey, I'm going for somebody with QB1 potential, but I don't want to have to drop them, Trevor Lawrence is your pick.

Starting point is 00:07:44 If you're going to double tap, like I said, Bryce Young would be my. I actually think Bryce Young's ceiling is higher even with the weapons that Trevor Lawrence has. Agreed. I love. young this year. This is this is, we can move on from it, but I just think this is a great pick. He, dude rushed for five rushing touchdowns in the last six games last season. And then you add this alpha number one receiver that, you know, I know a lot of us really like, too. And he might be appearing on this list later. So, uh, just, uh, great call, uh, strong agreement across the board.

Starting point is 00:08:11 D bro, let's go to your number five. I'm going to take the low hanging fruit here. I mean, it was the name that was going to get brought up by either Jake or myself. So I'm just going to go ahead and get it over with. I know I'm cheating a little bit because I understand Bill Crossky Merritt, Jacori Crossky Marit on the site and the ADPs. It's not going to catch up fast enough. Right now, he's sitting in those like RB 60 to 70 range.

Starting point is 00:08:32 Updating my rankings, he's in the RB3 range now. And I'm doing some forecasting, but I got to bring him up here because everybody's talking about him. And I agree with the process. Like, I know I've seen all the tweets and everybody out there like, all right, at the 103, who are we taking? Is it Bill? Are you taking Justin

Starting point is 00:08:48 Jefferson or C.D. Lamb? But like, for in all reality's sake, if Brian Robinson Jr. is gone from this backfield. I think Jacori-Keroski-Marit is a name that we do to be discussing. I've moved him up in my rankings. Right now, at the time of recording this, I have him at RB 32. So I am forecasting that Brian Robinson Jr. is cut or traded. Now, if that doesn't happen, we get closer to week one.

Starting point is 00:09:10 As you're listening to this, rankings and things like that will change. But I'm putting him right into that Brian Robertson Jr. role. And I understand Chris Rodriguez is there. And I've loved Chris Rodriguez in previous seasons. This isn't an anti-Christ Rodriguez take, but to me, if you really believe in Chris Rodriguez, one, why didn't Washington use him at all last year? Why was he buried? Why did they go draft another running back instead of putting more faith behind him?

Starting point is 00:09:35 And Jacori-Koroski-merit, even in the draft process, people go back and check out the NFL draft show for fantasy pros, talked about him there as a player who was being disrespected. If this guy didn't get screwed over by the NCAA in 2024, I had a fourth-round grade on him. he was comfortably inside my top 20. I think I had him at like RB 16, RB 17 and my rookie rankings post draft. I mean, he was fantastic. Like if you go back to 2023,

Starting point is 00:10:01 and I understand it was at New Mexico, I get that level of competition. We're still discussing a player that was 19th and yards of to contact per 10 amongst all FBS running backs with at least 100 carries and 12th in elusive rating. So playing this early down role

Starting point is 00:10:17 in the commander's offense, if he gets that role, people need to be drafting him somewhere around like a little bit outside of like that top 100. Like if you're sitting there and you're looking at all these RB3 handcuffed type of candidates that, and he might go above that because again, the ADP is rising on him. But I think that's the range where we should be discussing him because if he has that role in this offense and the goal line role and Austin Eckler keeps his standalone past game role, we're discussing a guy that like depending on how touchdowns go and how the early down volume, goes he's in that fringe RB2 RB3 conversation. So let me jump in and

Starting point is 00:10:55 point out so we actually literally just this week launched something called real time ADP You didn't bring it up I was going to worm. Yeah and so this is a great example of that now this is still going to sound pretty low because people are still in the process of catching up because this is all like

Starting point is 00:11:11 very recent. So I think this number will continue to go up even higher. He is up to an early 12th round pick. He had been multiple rounds, behind that prior to this. So he's already jumped to life. If you're looking at real-time ADP, it's got him as sort of like the 1204 right now. Again, that is multiple rounds up over what it was just over 24 hours ago.

Starting point is 00:11:30 That is going to continue to rise. But real-time ADP is this new feature we have on the site. I would highly recommend everybody to check it out. ADP in general is kind of a lagging indicator at times. This is going to kind of keep that updated. We have our data science team, which is amazing. Kind of work to put this together and show like where guys are actually going, like, as of this week, as of you.

Starting point is 00:11:49 even just the day before. As of that day, when you get to these really busy draft weekends with our synced leagues. So keep an eye on that. For examples like this, I think back to like Damien Pierce a couple years ago when it became clear who was going to start for Houston, like late August. He jumped up to like, you know, fifth, six round pick when he had been going away.

Starting point is 00:12:06 This is sort of a similar scenario where he's going to keep rising. Jake, two questions. One, what do you think of Cross-Emariting? Two, are you officially going to call him Jacori or Bill? It's got to be Bill. You know, the funny thing is I'd be more upset by that. But if anybody knows my story, that my Jake name is actually not my name and what my real name is, I can't get too angry at him. So that's a podcast for another day.

Starting point is 00:12:30 But like I like Kroski Merritt. I'm slightly behind where Debrough has him. I'm at 37, but I'm right behind like Tank Biggsby, Judkins with his situation. But I think the Judkins situation is one where he should fall into because Judkins still isn't with the Browns. We like, we got the news that he's cleared and then everything like, but we're still waiting. and we're assuming he's going to be the lead. But I think that's a fair spot to have him because assuming Brian Robinson is gone, we're assuming Kroski-Mertrott's going to be the lead.

Starting point is 00:12:57 I brought this up when we did the mock draft. It's not that I don't like Krosky Merritt. I just think that what D'Brow just said, like Rodriguez is a good talent. I would put him third on this depth chart. But I think the one, the interesting part here is Eckler's role is safe. Echler is going to be Echler, no matter who is the lead. And that's where I'm saying, like, okay, take Krosky Merritt,

Starting point is 00:13:16 giving him Brian Robinson's role. Well, then he puts up Brian Robinson's numbers. And it's not that I don't like that. It's just where's the ceiling? And I think that a need bro kind of say, you're potentially looking at back end RB2. But I think that might be it for him just because unless Echler gets hurt, I just don't think there's enough touches.

Starting point is 00:13:34 Hell, the worst case scenario is Rodriguez is involved. And all of a sudden, we're looking at a full-blown committee and we're banging our heads against the wall because we also have a running back, or a running quarterback who every time we have these kind of situations, you go back to Cam Newton and Justin Fields. I was like, we want one running back next to those guys. We don't want two, possibly three. So I think where we have them now, like I said, I have at 36.

Starting point is 00:13:55 Dibro has him slightly higher. I think that's where he needs to be because you're taking the upside chance, but also baking in enough risk that he's not the guy. Don't go draft him in week five this weekend because you want to look super smart when your league is drafting. I had a joke that I put out on social. It was me drafting Jacori Kroski-Marri in the third round at my live draft. and the image was just the office.

Starting point is 00:14:18 Pam, I feel God in this Chili's tonight. And I think people are going to feel God with some of these rounds are going to be taking the bill in at some point this season. But, you know, he's one of those fun players that you have every August that pops up. And there's just a lot of hype about it. And so it's one of the fun stories of preseason. I want to take a second to tell everybody about Draft Kings. Get in the game.

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Starting point is 00:17:38 That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

Starting point is 00:18:06 Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slics Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. All right, Jake, who is your number four breakout? Yeah, I'm going to go to Cedric Tillman. And this was kind of somebody who was looking to get way late in drafts, even before we got the Joe Flacco News as a quarterback. And even if they do turn to Sanders or Gabriel at some point, I don't think it's the end of the world for Tillman. but we all remember last year how excited we got during that stretch.

Starting point is 00:18:41 And it really lasted four games. The fourth game wasn't all super exciting. But we were talking about not just the touchdowns because, of course, that's going to inflate the numbers. He didn't have 100 yards in any of those games. He had 99 and one of them. But the biggest thing about it is we were talking about the targets. We're talking about 40 targets over four games.

Starting point is 00:18:57 Cedric Tillman was lead. It's not like Jerry Judy was dead at that point. It's not like we're talking about he wasn't in existence. So 40 targets over those four games, I don't think Tillman is going to average 10 targets per game and have 170 this year. But the upside of that before he got hurt, even if he's just averaging six, seven targets per game. For somebody that's going super late in drafts,

Starting point is 00:19:17 that can be the number two. And I know Injoku's a thing, but let's talk about the number. I think Ian Hardest was the first to bring it up about Joe Flacco over his last 17 full games where he didn't get hurt or come in for somebody who got hurt. Over his last 17 games, he's the lead leader in passing yards.

Starting point is 00:19:32 Like the dude's going to fling it even on the Browns. So, yes, they could change quarterback at some point, whether it's Flacco's play or an injury. But I just look at Tillman as like at least a hot start to the season that maybe you flip before that situation comes up. I think my favorite stat that I ever put on the Fantasy Bros. Social accounts was in like December a couple years ago when Joe Flacco had more passing touchdowns than Kenny Pickett ever had in his career. And he just was like on this heater. And I also just enjoyed knocking Kenny Pickett.

Starting point is 00:20:04 But stuff. Yeah, Flacco like. So I told the story before. We did a fantasy pros. We do like a double NFL stadium trip one weekend every year. And for the content team, it's often hard to go. I did attend it last year. So it was super fun.

Starting point is 00:20:18 And we did last year, one of the games was Ravens at Browns. It was like week eight or whatever. It's the one that the Ravens lost against James Winston to the Browns. Ravens mentioned. I'm talking about the Ravens losing. I'm just saying. I'm just saying. Go ahead.

Starting point is 00:20:33 Go ahead. Look so dominant. It's one of those games where we're really. you watch a guy in person and he just passes the eye test so well that you're like this guy. Like I'm just convinced that Sedkutilman is a stud and I will believe that until the day he retires, even if stats and future performance prove me wrong because I watched him look so utterly dominant in person once. I just think he's a really good player.

Starting point is 00:20:55 And I think the injury at the end of last season, the concussion stuff, like, is coloring the opinion of everybody and like maybe not remembering what he was doing in those first couple weeks. Now, quarterback situation really matters. So Flacco being in there is great. We hope that lasts from the Stedric Tillman perspective. But this is another one that I like, I really strongly agree with you, Jake, um, on such. Well, look at this. I just did some quick numbers, not even going back to Ian's tweet. His last 14 games where he was the full starter beginning to end, 4,200 yards. That's insane. It's not too bad. Yeah. DeBrow, what do you got? Uh, I mean, well, Tillman, man, like, I mean, the volume can be definitely there.

Starting point is 00:21:33 And I think one of the things that helps him, like, maybe ascend quicker as far as the number two target or at least competing within Joku for that spot is, dude, I was all in on Deonti Johnson as like a last round pick. The vibes have been pretty bad throughout camp, like came in out of shape, things like that. Like there's worries. Like, again, like Jake just mentioned, like, I don't know if he's on the roster week one. So again, like my worries were, you know, and the thing that I was talking about earlier in the off season was if Deonti Johnson didn't get cut. Like if he didn't move on from Carolina, where we would be drafting him. But you come in and like a team offers you a contract that you were like just sitting at home on the couch from much of the off season and you're basically out of shape. You're not ready.

Starting point is 00:22:14 That's not good, dude. So yes, that increases the pathway for Cedric Tillman. Yeah. All right, Dibro, let's go to your number four. Dude, we've talked about him on a bunch of shows. Need to talk about him again here. It's Tucker Kraft. I mean, going as the tight end 11.

Starting point is 00:22:27 I mean, what he did on a per route basis. And we all have our own takes. about, okay, who is the Packers wide receiver to draft this year? Who's the guy that could step up? Might not be a wide receiver at all. Could be their tight end. And the skill set, I mean, he's an athletic marvel. So we know that the high-end athleticism is tied to possible high-end outcomes

Starting point is 00:22:48 or at least gives you that opportunity at the tight-end position. It's the most correlated or highly correlated position to athleticism and all a fantasy. Like we talk about a year after year, like just because you run really fast in a straight line, doesn't mean that you're going to be a good wide receiver. We see running backs who run four, sixes and stuff like that produced because of volume and what have you in fantasy. But with tight end, you've got to be a top tier athlete or you're not going to put up possible top tier numbers and craft.

Starting point is 00:23:15 I mean, the guy is just a medical marvel. Like he's athletic as I'll get out. You look at the per route metrics last year. I mean, yes, he was 20th and target share. Yes, he was 27th first read share. If those numbers come around because, again, target volume is a reflect. of not only, of talent and those targets are earned. Kraft could earn a crap ton.

Starting point is 00:23:36 He's, I mean, he's a quietly good bet to maybe lead the Packers and targets this year. And if he does that, he's going to have a massive breakout season because the per route efficiency was awesome last year. Like amongst all, 47 qualifying tight ends last year, Tucker Kraft, 12th most receiving yards. Again, on the limited volume that I talked about, he was seventh in yards per route run, third and mistackles force, and he was first in yak per reception. So the per route numbers scream that if the Green Bay Packers want to feature arguably their most talented pass catcher on that roster, that could be Tucker Kraft. And if this all happens, dude, he could be sniffing like top five, top six type of production this year.

Starting point is 00:24:14 Do you think, Dibro, there's a chance? I mean, you said top five, top six. Do you think there's a chance of him breaking into the top three? Or is that just too strong with Bowers McBride and Kettle? It's possible. But with those guys, what they need to happen for him to even sniff that rare. air, the Packers are going to have to lean back into the passing game and not like in a league average passing rate, but they're going to have to be somewhere in like the top 14,

Starting point is 00:24:39 15 type of phylum as far as passing raid for him to get the target volume to even be close to competing with those guys. If that doesn't happen, then no. I think the more like high end expectations for him is probably top five, top six. Jake, what do you think? Do you think there's enough volume there for anybody in this Packers offense? I mean, the right? reputation like Debrough was alluding to is that the ball gets spread out a lot. That's what a lot people talk about. Do you think Kraft can rise above that and have this kind of like top five-ish tight end season? I do mostly because it's a twofold factor here is that we expect better for Jordan Love. The guy was basically dealing with an injury from the gate, jump out of the gate and

Starting point is 00:25:19 then got injured again. And so he's dealing with two last year. I know he's already got the thumb, but that's on the other hand. I think that if you see Jordan Love bounce back, you want to talk about injuries. We are also dealing with injuries to Dobbs, Wicks, Savion Williams, he was even heard, the other rookie. Like, it's down the line. We have one clear option. Matthew Golden is clearly going to be the one, but is actually Reid even got banged up this preseason. Like, who's healthy? So, like, the biggest question here might be, this might be the chiefs. This might be the other teams where the tight end is actually the number two. And if so, I was actually going to ask Debrough this, because I'm really curious, is back when the draft

Starting point is 00:25:53 happened, I made a joke, and people came for me. I was like, but I made a joke. It's like, it's weird that they took the better tight end around later when they took craft after musgrave and oh my god the people that came from me on that one i was like just wait so were you on me with that one because that's we were the hand holding okay there's a receipt out there uh i tweeted this right after the draft i was a big tucker craft guy and in that draft class and i was not in a luke musgrave i tweeted this and people can go search x for it it's still out there somewhere in the ether that this was the same exact situation as when baltimore drafted haydenhurst and Andrews and Kraft was the Andrews in this conversation.

Starting point is 00:26:30 Now who's bringing up the Ravens, do you? Well, I mean, I'm just trying to help you hit the over here. No, no, I actually, I actually agreed. I think that's a good comp in terms of like the better guy going later. I think I might be misremembering, but I think what the year the Ravens took likely, it was after they took Kohler. It was in the same round. I forget who they took first, but that's like another one where like the better

Starting point is 00:26:49 tight end goes later. I think likely might have been taken. I can't remember. They were taking this. I'm going to have to look it up. It was the year they had like five fourth round picks. I don't remember the order. But to your point, like, the clear example there is, like, Andrews and Hurst as, like, a comp is the same.

Starting point is 00:27:03 I totally agree with you. Like, like, Kraft. I liked Kraft better, too. I'm not as in the weeds with the prospects as you guys are, but, like, I also liked Craft better. So, I would love to see him get the volume for this to pan out. I'm pretty invested in Craft and Dynasty. I think he's a really talented player. And I just, like, you talk about DeRoe, the per route metrics are so good that, like, I want to see him get more opportunity because I just think he's a really good player.

Starting point is 00:27:27 Yes, to your point, Collar went at 423 and likely was 11 picks behind him. So I don't want to raise Ravens knowledge. Of course, we would expect nothing less from Worm. I think what it was was they wanted Calvin Austin. And then the Steelers, like, trade it up and took Austin. And so then the Ravens had to switch. And they were like, well, we do like likely, even though we already got a tight end. So, yeah, I mean, it's happened on more than one occasion that a team like takes

Starting point is 00:27:52 multiple tight ends at the same draft and the second guy is just better. Mm-hmm. Great. All right, Jake, let's go to your number three breakout candidate. This one might feel a little layup-ish just because of the recent news, but I just wanted to point out Braylin Allen to call back. You and I, I'm talking to Worm here on this one, this was like two months ago at this point where we were talking about Justin Fields and looped in the running back situation.

Starting point is 00:28:17 I said it was explaining, I think it was one of those where running backs were not drafting in quotes or something like that. And I was saying why I was out on Breece Hall and to check the receipts. And this isn't to be like, ha, this is a lot. this is all we're doing today is checking receipts and victory lapping. But I want to bring up the reason of why I was off Bree's Hall. And it's because if you look back at Justin Fields teams and back with the Bears in his best season, the running back that was next to him when they were inside the 10 and getting the

Starting point is 00:28:42 touchdown equity was the bigger back because it offsets field style when you get to the goal line. The past catching elusive running back kind of bottles things up a little bit for what they're both. You basically have two guys trying to do the same thing. So you bring in the bigger back and you kind of offset what the defense is prepared for you. Now you have to stuff the middle, but also extend outside to prevent fields or the elusiveness. So that's why I brought it up is like I was really concerned that Brayland Allen was not just going to be a timeshare, but he was going to steal these important touchdown equity carries in a backfield where we go back to the running quarterback is that's kind of what we have to chase when you're talking about a split backfield.

Starting point is 00:29:18 And I don't think Breece Hall is going to be terrible. I would still take him as a mid-low RB2. but I think Braylon Allen's in the conversation to steal the work, and I would almost give it the reverse of the Steelers last year. Like basically, if Jalen Warren was the lead and Najee Harris was the second piece, I think that's what we can see for the Jets, which again goes back to the touchdown equity. And all that being said, I do think there's a non-zero chance where he's so good that all of a sudden, Bruce Hall's kicked into the complimentary piece.

Starting point is 00:29:45 That's a possible outcome here. So I think that Braylin Allen, not only getting to relevancy where you can use them, but also having the upside if Breeze Hall were to stumble or hell if he got hurt brahlin Allen would be a top 20 running back options so I think there's a lot of appeal for brail and those mid-rowns Debrough where are you at on Allen is he somebody that you are reaching for like in the anticipation of maybe a better workload and a possible breakout or are you going against Jake on this one no I'm fine with brail and Alan where he goes I think if you're trying to catch up with running back or if you're playing the outcomes the possible outcomes in the Jets backfield

Starting point is 00:30:20 there's an easy like there's a non-zero chance that Breeze Hall is gone. They trade him away at some point this season. And Braylon Allen is the guy that where you plug in and he's maybe like a touchdown dependent flex at the beginning of the year. And maybe he vaults to being an RV2 because I do believe whether it's Breece Hall and Braylon Allen or Isaiah Davis and Braylon Allen, this is going to stay a committee. But can Braylon Allen usurp or can he take the lead in that committee? Because the vibes around Breeze Hall and the preseason usage we've seen so far, it's been split. It's been split. almost down the middle and Aaron Glenn has been true to his word like they're going to use

Starting point is 00:30:57 multiple backs. So like where he goes and drafts is totally fine taking a shot on it. Where's he ranked for you, Dabro? Ooh, I've got him somewhere in the RB3 conversation somewhere. He's RB 46 in ECR right now. I've got him somewhere in that RB3 conversation, depending on the day. I'm still kind of shit. Like today I'm kind of updating rank. You take Braylin Allen or Joe Mixon if you draft today.

Starting point is 00:31:18 Oh, good Lord, Braylin Allen. I'm not, Joe Mixins is straight up. Joe Mixon is all my draft board. Not, not, not. I'm not price enforcing. I want nothing to do with Joe. Somebody asked me that the other day. What's the price enforcement on Joe Mixon?

Starting point is 00:31:33 I was like, none, zero. Yeah. Yeah. Not doing it. Nope, nope, nope, nope, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Kut, no, no. There's a great sign that I've used as a meme on the fantasy pros account before. It's some card dealership and it just says zero percent interest.

Starting point is 00:31:49 That is me with Joe Mixen and drafts. I have zero percent interest. Hey, who runs the fancy pro social account, by the way? Oh, yeah. All right, let's go to Deeroy, your number three. Yeah, so the third guy, again, like, kind of, we were talking about low hanging fruit here. I feel like this is obvious, but we got to talk about him, man. Ricky Piersall, like, he's at Water Super 42 and ADP.

Starting point is 00:32:11 Like, you see him anywhere from, like, the Wide Receiver 3 to the Wide Receiver 4 range. I want to stay above consensus because I think the breakout is real and it's common, man. Like, I went back and this past Sunday, I watched. all the All-22 so far of the preseason of Ricky Pearsall. Earlier this off-season, I went back, and I watched all of his routes from last season. And the usage changed throughout the season for Pierce-Sall, and I think we're seeing a different player than we saw at any point so far in the preseason than we saw any point last year. His Christmas getting off the line, his releases, his en route ability to gear down and

Starting point is 00:32:47 separate has been fantastic. You've seen in the preseason, like, there's been things. talks about him and Brock Purdy working out in the offseason. And you saw the continuity in the preseason. There's one particular route where Pierceaw is either running a slant or an over route. I forget the exact route he was running. But during that, he's crossing the middle of the field. And you're like, dude, if you can, going the way you're going, you're just going to get washed out in the play. He sits down as Purdy's move into his left. He sits down in the middle of his own coverage. Purdy, it's like he anticipated he was going to do that and nails him on the crosser. And so I think you're seeing the

Starting point is 00:33:22 the role and the player's talent just bubble to the top. And then when we zoom out about this offense, we don't know when we're going to see a healthy and effective version of Brandon Iyuk. Juan Jennings is dealing with the calf injury, whether that's real or contract related. We can all discuss. But then this passing attack boils down to, especially in the early going.

Starting point is 00:33:44 Everybody keeps talking about Juan Jennings and what he did last year. What if that's the Ricky Pearson role this year? What if he's the guy getting the 30% first, read share and we saw that at the very two last games of last season where he was operating that role and he looked freaking amazing at doing it like in those two games and I know it's a small sample but we have seen him flash we have seen them feature in him in a high volume role where he was the wide receiver seven and the wide receiver 14 in those two weeks he almost a 22% target chair and he had a 30.4% first read share and he crushed so I think we're looking at like yes this is

Starting point is 00:34:20 a guy who has former first round draft capital. You look at all the parts or pieces around him and it just screams, we need to be above market and this guy is heading for a huge season. It's funny because we did a breakout segment with Andy Barron's and Andrew Erickson on the fest yesterday. And Andy picked Ricky Pearsall and he said the same thing you did at the beginning, which is it kind of feels like low hanging fruit, like might be too obvious of a pick. But I think it's worth continuing to bring up because he is still right.

Starting point is 00:34:49 I mean, his ECR is wide receiver 36. And parents was saying he was like, I have him as like borderline, like as an RB2. Like this is a guy that should be going outside the top 24, given all the stuff that you just listed out. And he was, you know, making similar points yesterday. Like, I don't know if you would rank him there that that kind of tier of receivers is very big. We've talked about that before, Jake. Those like kind of mid-20s into the 30s range of receivers can go a lot of different directions. But Pearsall is currently at the back end of that.

Starting point is 00:35:17 It technically is at the top of tier six right now. And that just like it's not going up despite the fact that we keep bringing him up and saying this is too obvious of a pick. But we have to keep bringing it up because he is still ranked in an area that just just feels too low, Jake. So when I open this list, the first name I noticed on Debrose was like son of up, he took Ricky Pearson. I mean, I just knew it. And to be fair, like I actually had him as my number one. So ha ha, do you really take you one step further? But if you weren't watching the video, I pointed out at Debrough when he said one thing.

Starting point is 00:35:48 and I'm glad he brought this up. So when Pearsall came out of college, it actually said coming out of college, he's Darius Slighton right now because he doesn't work zone well. And what Dibro just said is like he will run straight through the openings in zone. He won't sit down. He won't find the space. He'll just keep running and not know when to stop the routes or pull them off.

Starting point is 00:36:07 And you saw that development shortly at the end of last year. Debrough brought up a really good point in the fact that, yeah, everybody's like, well, he didn't have much through his first couple of games until the end. He was being used differently. Again, there's development with how the team and the player both go hand in hand. And everybody wants to talk about Jennings, and admittedly so. But let's talk about if not for that 40-point game. After that, and Jennings was already the dude at that point.

Starting point is 00:36:31 After that, he had five more games of double-digit points. Three of those were between 10 and 12, not even huge games. And after that point as well, six games of seven points are fewer. It's not even like he was gangbusters after that huge game. He was basically our boomer bust wire receiver four. So if you're looking at who steps into this role, which is the one thing I want to bring up to, as I said that a few months ago is I know Dibro will echo this too, is that when IEuk comes back. I kept bringing up Ayuk's threat is Jennings. Like Jennings loses his job when Iyuk comes back.

Starting point is 00:37:03 Iyuk does not replace Pearsall. Piercel stays. Piercel fits the Debo role. He's not Debo, but he filts that role. And that's what's most important here. I cannot agree more on Ricky Pearsall. Before we get to the rest of the show, I want to take a quick second to talk to everyone about fan tracks.

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Starting point is 00:38:21 That's F-A-N-T-R-A-X.com slash fantasy pros for your chance at a signed Jamar Chase jersey. FanTracks, the home of fantasy sports. Jake, let's go to your number two. I actually forgot my number. I was so jazzed up for Ricky Pearson. I love it. It's Marvin Mims. And this is going to be strange for anybody that's listened to me throughout the years,

Starting point is 00:38:43 because I was never the biggest Marvin Mims fan. One of the things that I said about him was he's a possession-wide receiver, which immediately creates a perception of people lose their minds for that one of these because people think possession, they think 10 yards and down. My point about that is that Marvin Mims can be 25, 40 yards downfield, but he catches the ball and goes down. That was my point. It's like wherever he catches it, end a story, it's over.

Starting point is 00:39:06 There's no yak with him. And that was my biggest concern is that it's just where he's going to be on the field when he catches the ball and then cool, whatever. so he's really dictating on how many targets he gets, how big of his players are, and yes, he has tons of big playability. Somebody else who's developing, and not surprisingly, developing under Sean Payton. And I know there's been late talk with all the other wide receivers and maybe another one steps up. But as of what we've seen so far, he's clearly been the number two.

Starting point is 00:39:32 He's been run out there as the number two. He's coming off the field with the starters. And if he has any development underneath of Sean Payton, I was not a huge fan of Pat Bryant, but I like Pat Bryant after the drafting position because it's like, hey, there's some similarities to like a Michael Thomas big slot option. Well, he doesn't always have to run in the slot, that being Marvin Mims, but a similar style profile if that Sean Pate has turned him into that, which is very possible. And now we're talking about Marvin Mims clearly is the number two and potentially having a hundred and plus, 100 plus targets. Because here's the really other interesting part, not to come for Evan Ingram. But Eminemingram's used so far in the preseason has not been The Joker and not been a very heavy target basis as he's been rolling out some two tight-end sets and even some single tight-end sets, which haven't included Ingram.

Starting point is 00:40:18 So if we're looking for who the two is similar to the craft situation, the two that we know right now is actually Marvin Mims. I want to ask you this, Jake. Marvin Mims is Widerstager 58 in ECR. Cedric Tillman is Wider's Silver 57 in ECR. Who do you like better? everythings. Marvin Mims more than 10, and that's why he's higher up on my list,

Starting point is 00:40:40 but I would take both well over ECR right now. Yeah, late 50s is pretty low for those guys. Like, Braden Ayuk is ahead of both of them with his injury stuff going on. Christian Kirk is ahead of both of them. I'd rather take them. Darnal Mooney. Reh Morris was like,

Starting point is 00:40:57 we hope to see Darnal Mooney this season. He said this season. How are we still taking Mooney over both of them? Yeah. Bateman who I like is ahead of both of them. I think that's a mistake. Oh, good. Tell me what four good games Bateman's going to have and then you can draft

Starting point is 00:41:11 if you can tell me the four good weeks, go right ahead. Yeah. So, yeah, no, they're, they're late. It's funny that they're both back to back. Debrough, you have a long history with Marvin Mims. What do you think about him this year as a breakout candidate? Dude, I think it's very telling. And I was honestly shocked when he came out.

Starting point is 00:41:30 And what was it? It was a preseason week one or week two and he ran, what was it, 15, I'm pulling this all out of memory, 15 of the 16 snaps that the starters ran and he's on the field and two wide receiver sets. Like, I wasn't expecting that, dude, to be honest. Like, I, especially if you look at his usage last year, it was so gadgety. It was backfield stuff, backfield routes. His design target rate was through the freaking roof. And I was like, oh, dude, this is, this is not a guy we're going to like worry about this year. I bumped up his rank I had him languishing in like the low 60s, high 70s.

Starting point is 00:42:09 I bumped him up to where I'm basically kind of like even with ECR. Like I'm in like somewhere in the 50s on a daily basis with him because I want to be even with ECR with him because that full time role I wasn't expecting. But again, like it comes back to the preseason. What do we take away from from their usage? What is good like good usage nuggets and what is paralysis by over analysis? And I think the usage from Marvin Mims is something we do need to take into account with how we're looking at his ranking, how we're looking at and projecting his role for this year. And again, as we learn more about these players, what do you take away and what do you just toss in the trash and say, that's noise.

Starting point is 00:42:51 That's garbage. Yeah. Let's go to your number two, you bro. Oh, man. It's a guy that I've been above consensus, remain above consensus. It's funny. Jake and I were talking about him pre-show for we turned on the mics and the end. in the cameras, but George Pickens, baby.

Starting point is 00:43:05 Breakout season here for it. I tweeted this out and I fully believe this this year. The Dallas Cowboys are going to be this year's version of the Cincinnati Bengals. And in this comparison I'm making, George Pickens can be the T. Higgins in this offense. I've bumped up his ranking. I still think ADP, ECR, best ball, all the things. He's still going too freaking late. The breakout is coming.

Starting point is 00:43:32 and for a player that I'm comfortably ranking him aggressively as a wide receiver two and he's being drafted as a wide receiver three. The talent is there. Now the volume is going to be there. Going from a Pittsburgh Steelers offense last year, there was bottom 10 in passing attempts to a Dallas offense, we know is going to be top five to 10 in passing attempts. It's wheels up for George Pickens, man.

Starting point is 00:43:54 And last year, Arthur Smith could not stop him from putting up strong per route metrics where before the hamstring injury, weeks one through 13. This dude was 18th in separation and eighth in yards per route run. He's not coming off the field. We're not going to get any of the Arthur Smith ignorance this year. Like Dallas knows where their bread needs to be buttered. And George Pickens, all the vibes are awesome.

Starting point is 00:44:17 That's the other thing. In a contract year where we're talking about Jerry's doing stupid stuff with Michael Parsons, everything is aces up right now so far in the preseason and camp for George Pickens. I don't know if Dallas pays him or not, but he is going to put up one heck of a season and really make the case that Jerry's going to have to open up the pocketbook yet again. Where do you have him ranked Debr?

Starting point is 00:44:40 He's currently ECR is wide receiver 29 and half PPR scoring. Is that too high? It sounds like you're saying this too low. Top 15 wide receiver. Top 15. I'm going to stand on that. Top 15. I figured you'd be much higher actually,

Starting point is 00:44:53 but I didn't realize top 15. Wow. What do you think about that, Jake? That's, I'm wild. buy it, but I think it's in the world of possibilities because the one conversation that Debrough and I were having before the show is that his name needs to be in there with Teagans and Jameson Williams and Devontas Smith and all the twos on offenses where the volume is there clearly the option. Yeah, Jake, Jake Ferguson could bounce back, but it's not going to

Starting point is 00:45:17 be the volume that George Pickens is going to see and just kind of similar to those names. And the biggest thing is that if he finishes 15, you know, Dibro is going to look super smart. But the thing is, even if he finishes wide receiver 25, that's not going to be like, like he was wrong. It's just it might be a difference of one or two touchdowns because this tier is so enormous. I mean, we go from T. Higgins at what I have him as like Y-Receiver 13-14, and you go down to where I have like Jalen Wattle. Jalen Wattle is another one that should be in this conversation. Jalen Waddle into the mid-20s and the difference. And the difference between them are like one to two points per game, if even two is more like one, one and a half. So it's not a huge difference.

Starting point is 00:45:53 So yeah, it might sound crazy to be like, oh my God, wide receiver 15, but he's just making a statement and that like he thinks that's the real upside for pickens. I might not disagree. I mean, I agree. I disagree, but I still have pickens in the high 20s. So it's like that.

Starting point is 00:46:06 I'm not that far off. Yep. That long tier comes down to volume and it comes down to touchdowns and stuff like that. And I just, I think when we look at the projection of pickens, his volume, median and upside case with how much Dallas is going to throw the freaking ball. Like we know where the ball is going.

Starting point is 00:46:25 The running backs are not going to take a huge chunk of the passing. game out of this. Even if Jaden Blue like breaks out in a full way, I don't think he's a guy that's getting 70, like 60, 70, 70, 80 targets in that offense. So it's like, where does the volume go? If Dak Prescott is going to be top five to 10 in passing attempts, where does the volume go? We know C.D. Lamb, but dude, he's, he's going to get his like 160, 180 targets or whatever. All right. So where's the rest of it go? Do you think Jake Ferguson's getting 150 targets? Well, that's not happening. So where's it going? It's going right to. It's going right to. to George Pickens.

Starting point is 00:47:00 If you go to player pages on fantasy pros and click on rankings, you can see where each expert has a guy ranked. D. Bro is the highest ranked expert. I think you're going to say, if you just go to his player page, it's just a picture of Dibro actually instead of George Pickens. I'm just staring at George Pickens. I'm just staring at the TV. Should look at the rankings.

Starting point is 00:47:20 Dbrough is the highest. He is 16 spots higher than ECR, according to our page. There are some, you know, well-known guys in the industry. who agree with you though like Jacob Gibbs is second highest Matt Harmon is up there he obviously knows receivers really well Dalton Del Don is up there so you are on an island in terms of being the highest but you're not on an island in terms of anybody not being near you're gonna say it say with your chest don't say it at all you can see where your favorite breakout candidates are coming off the board and save yourself from getting sniped by using our draft simulator the draft simulator

Starting point is 00:47:49 allows you to practice quick and fun realistic mock drafts based on your league settings in minutes. Use the pick predictor to see the percent odds that any player will be taken ahead of your next pick. Sink your league for free and try it today at fantasy pros.com slash mock or download the fantasy football draft wizard app. It's funny. I was talking to my sister on the phone yesterday because she called me for my birthday,

Starting point is 00:48:09 which is really nice. She has three kids under the age of six. And she does play fantasy. And she was talking about how her husband, who's in our fantasy league, like our big family league has done all these mock drafts already, but she hasn't had time. And I was like, what are you talking about? Use the mock draft simulator. And she was like, well, I don't have like an hour.

Starting point is 00:48:26 I was like, are you kidding me? Your brother works for the site. You think it's going to take you an hour. These are so quick. And she literally said to me, you should say it on the show. So people know it's really quick and easy. And I was like, this is all we talk about. What do you, what do you?

Starting point is 00:48:40 Anybody with kids knows that you have the few minutes of solitude to yourself when you go to the bathroom. If you're sitting on the freaking toilet, you run a mackerel fast. It's not hard. It's really not hard. Can I say something real quick about that? I forgot my first. phone downstairs and went to the toilet this morning. I was so lost. I didn't know what I just

Starting point is 00:48:59 staring at the wall like, what do I do? It should be just a daily rule. When the coffee kicks in, it's time to mock. Okay. Time to dive to mock. Yes. I, uh, yeah. So I was, I won't throw her under the bus by naming her by name, but I will throw my sister under the bus by saying mock drafts are quick and easy use the simulator. All right. We have one breakout candidate left from each of you guys. Jake, who is your number one? This feels like the most layup of mine.

Starting point is 00:49:29 I'm going to go with Roma Dunzee. And I think that's obvious to a lot of people. But I will say there are a lot of people that I do an article every single year. It's last year's trash. It's the people that really disappointed that nobody ever wants to go back to. That's another mistake people make in drafts is writing people off. Like, oh, I'm never going to draft them again because blank happened to me. or they didn't do this last year or whatever it might be.

Starting point is 00:49:50 And I get it. After the fourth year, yeah, it might be hard to convince you to take Kyle Pitts one more time in the double-digit rounds, but at least he's almost free this year. But Roma Dunezay, it was part being his own fault last year. Yes, Caleb Williams struggled.

Starting point is 00:50:02 Yes, that offense was all over the map with the firing of Walger. And then there was a little bit of a brief spell where we were like, okay, cool, Thomas Brown's fixed things. Caleb Williams is running a little bit more, making his first reads. And then it reverted back as Brown had to step up and things changed. But all that being said, Rome was part of the problem. too. There was some consistency issues with him, some concentration drops. But we're still talking

Starting point is 00:50:23 about somebody if we go back to last year's draft. And we brought up this question. Fitz did it a few weeks ago. It was like, hey, if Pacheco never got back on the field last year, wouldn't we be drafting him higher for the injury optimism? So I went to this and I said, let's say Romo Dunezay was like J.J. McCarthy got hurt and never played his rookie season. He'd be getting drafted higher because it'd be like, oh my God, we know who Roman Dunesay is the talent. And we never solved the disappointment. but if everything's going to be better for Caleb Williams with Ben Johnson, everything's going to be better for this offense, and we're excited about the third and fourth options about Luther Burden and Colston Loveland,

Starting point is 00:50:55 who still has to get past Cole commit. But the point being, if we're excited about all those, how are you not excited for the number two, who, by the way, has a world where he might be the most valuable bearers wide receiver because the interesting thing so far is they're playing a hell of a lot of DJ more outside. And I like all three wide receivers because I think all three can play the slot and outside to varying levels of success. But the one that's done the most Amaran St. Brown-ness so far through the preseason

Starting point is 00:51:24 and what we've seen from team reports has been Adunze. So I think there is a world where we get to the end of the season and all of a sudden similar to the conversation that Devante Adams could outscore Nuku. I'm not going to bet that Adunze outscores DJ Moore, but I certainly think it's a possibility. I have a rule, D. Bro, where I'm like, if I really believe in the talent and the situation in the player in general, which I'm not. I do with Roma Dunzee, I am always willing to look past year one. I am less willing to look past it if it's like another disappointment in year two,

Starting point is 00:51:53 like, you know, fool me one shame on you, that sort of thing. Like, yeah. But year one, especially if I, especially if it's so easy to explain, right? Like there's a very logical Occam's razor explanation of, yeah, the situation was terrible. And like you said, Jake, it was someone that was on a Dunezay too, but really tough situation, I am willing to look past that in year one and basically draft him as if that didn't happen. Now, I'm not going to draft him as if he had a breakout season already. And, you know, let's go be super aggressive and I love him or whatever. But I am willing to give a second chance on

Starting point is 00:52:26 somebody like that. Somebody like Kyle Pitts or Trevor Lawrence, it's harder because it's been multiple times. But Roma Dunsay, that first year, I'm always very willing to do that. So Debrough, are you also going back to the well on Roma Dunsia this year? Yeah. I mean, he's in that bucket of guys wide receiver three, four range where it's taking shots. You're splitting hairs on guys, you know, like, I mean, right now in, uh, best ball ADP on fantasy pros.com, you have Ricky Piersall and Roma Dunes. They are right back to back at wide receiver 33 and wide receiver 34. And it's a very similar conversation.

Starting point is 00:52:56 It's guys that didn't fire last year and who are you in on and who are you out on. Like I could sit here and we, you know, make the easy case this, you know, and we talked about this last year. It was like, okay, is Rome heading for a JSN type of rookie season. We can't all be surprised if that happens. Then it goes out and it happens. and it's like, okay, well, are you out or are you back in? And I think there's going to be a lot of different opinions on Rome.

Starting point is 00:53:18 And where he's going in drafts, I have no issue with right now. I love that because that was one of the things we said about Rome last year. I say we as in us, even on this show, is that like, hey, he's being placed on a team third behind two talented wide receivers and let's be patient. And we just saw it happen with JSN. And what did JSN do last year, by the way? Okay, like, let's realize like there's a world that Rome can do it even without a follow off from D. Jay Moore. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:53:43 Going in the mid-30s is just, I think it's great because the downside is, like, again, you don't have to draft him as if he already broke out. This is like a very reasonable cost. If Caleb Williams is going to be the first quarterback in Bears history to throw for 4,000 yards and 30 plus touchdowns, it's got to go somewhere. DJ Moore's not going to have 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. Yep. Rome's coming along for the ride if it happens.

Starting point is 00:54:06 Agreed. Yeah. All right, Debrough, wrap us up with your number one, which will surprise nobody. Yeah, I shouldn't surprise anybody, man. And again, I keep talking about low-hanging fruit. But, I mean, this just feels like an easy call. And I know he's gotten a lot of steam because I think people have come around collectively, like the whole fantasy industry, like this is a guy I've been talking about since preseason.

Starting point is 00:54:26 But, man, I want to stay aggressive. I want to stay above ECR. And like, I've got him as a wide receiver two. He's still being drafted in so many different formats as a wide receiver three. And it's Tedd-Roe McMillan. I think, and I'm not projecting this, but I think we could be living in a world and worm. I brought this up and I got to give you your flowers. You said this, not stealing this from you. We easily could be living in a world at the end of this season where Tetero McMillan

Starting point is 00:54:51 puts up Malik neighbors type of rookie season numbers. And I don't think that it's crazy. I know people are going to eye roll and I know they're going to say it's insane. But it's not, man. Like, if we just talked about earlier in this show about having faith and believing what Bryce Young did last year down the stretch is real. Canellas has come out and talked about it. And every Dave Canales quote has come out and talked about we are going to push Tedroa McMillan. We are going to feed him. We want to run this offense through this guy. And everybody's like, oh, well, what about all the other?

Starting point is 00:55:21 Really, you're worried about Adam Thielen at this point in his career versus a first round drafted wide receiver. And I know people shaded him throughout the entirety of the process. He doesn't watch film. He's not fast enough go top 10, except he does. And now he's crushing in the preseason. Like, people can go check the timeline. Like there's joint practices where it's not he's. dusting the CB5 on a freaking roster.

Starting point is 00:55:43 He's getting open versus Derek freaking Stingley, one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. So it's coach speak, it's talent, it's draft capital, it's belief in Bryce Young having a better year this year and quietly the metrics all line up for Teddrami Millen. Like this is a guy like, I think when we talk about his game, it's the ability to step in and play the alpha X role from day one. And I think he can do that.

Starting point is 00:56:11 a player that over the last two collegiate seasons he played had the third and the 10th most man coverage targets and he smashed versus man coverage. He was 8th and 10th in yards per route run and you marry this with an offense that, and again, this has not been brought up enough throughout the offseason. Carolina was quietly fourth in Redsong passing rate last year. So not only does have the leeway or the pathway to get a ton of targets in this offense, if Bryce Young can be that guy this season, the touchdown upside with him is ginormous, man. Like he could spike 10 to 12 touchdowns this year if Carolina is going to run it back in an improved offense with improved quarterback play. And they're going to be top five to 10 in red zone

Starting point is 00:57:02 passing rate. Sign me up, man. It's one of the easiest clicks in all fantasy right now. Yeah, I feel like people who have been listening to the show all summer are probably tired of hearing me make that Malik Neighbors comparison because I brought it up a couple of times. But for those who are just coming to us now, I'm like, Malik Neighbors, I think is a better player than Teteroa McMillan. Yeah. But the situation like both top 10 picks who are stepping into like they are clearly going to get as many targets as they can handle. The Panthers like with what we saw the back half of Bryce Young last year have a better quarterback situation, I think, than, you know, Malik Neighbors had his rookie season. And what I keep saying is, like Malik Navors, this is the cheapest, in my opinion, that Tedroa McMillan will be in drafts for the next eight to 10 years of his career.

Starting point is 00:57:44 He is going to be going higher than this, I think, this time next year. So I want to get the guy while he is cheap. We know that first-round receivers are a good investment in general. The fit is, it's a hand-in-glove fit in this offense, both in terms of what Dave Canales is looking for, both in terms of what Bryce Young needs, both in terms of what this receiving room needs. it just seems so perfect. And I don't care, frankly, that he is now going inside the fifth round. I'm looking at the real-time ADP right now.

Starting point is 00:58:12 It's gone up in the last week. Easy. It's about the 505 is where he's going. I don't care. I just think he's really good. It's a great fit. And I think you're going to be really happy with that pick. Jake, what do you think about Tedro-McMillan?

Starting point is 00:58:25 So I'm really glad that Derek brought up something that I kind of said because this is going to paint a picture of where it's weird for me is during the pre-draft process. I sat there and like, this is the dumbest thing ever. We sat here all year long, all college football season long saying Teddaro McGoan is the best wide receiving. There's draft class. All year, all year, all year, all year. We get to a month before the draft and it's like, well, it might be somebody else. Ah, well, it might like there's, you know, let's kind of pick them apart. And I brought it up and I said, it's kind of like the Ohio State wide receivers every single year. Garrett Wilson fell into this. Jackson Smith and Jigba fell this. Because we knew them. It's like people just want to find somebody else to talk about instead. And I was on that page. And then it's funny

Starting point is 00:59:07 it's like, it's been so frustrating to watch him just buried in drafts. But now it's comes full circle and it's coming back around because a lot of people are waking up to what D-Brow saying, what you've said, what I've said or whatever. But I feel like it's going to depend on your draft because I feel top 20 is a little aggressive for me. And I say this to say this is why. It's not that I don't like McMillan. It's not that I'm worried about Adam Thielen or Jatavian Sanders, a league at, or whatever it might be, is just, I have them for 135 targets. That would rank 13th in the NFL last year. That's a lot of targets.

Starting point is 00:59:41 To have 130, you're going to rank inside the top 15 almost every single year. The question comes down to what to those 135 turn into? And where it could be Brian Thomas, 80-some-odd catches, 1,200 yards, and 10 touchdowns. My concern is it's more Jacobi-Myers where it's 80-something, 1,000-4-5 touchdowns. Now, if D-Bro is right and they continue to pass like they have, and I brought up Bryce Young as my first breakout pick, and Bryce Young throws for 30 touchdowns, I'm going to be wrong because I have McMillan as my high 20s.

Starting point is 01:00:12 Like, he's not far out. He's still a wide receiver two for me, and I have him in front of Marvin Harrison. But I also think that Marvin Harrison's rookie season is the telltale concern that you can be one of the best talents. The situation might hurt you a little bit. Now, I do think that the Panthers aren't going to be stupid like the Cardinals are and be like,

Starting point is 01:00:31 Marv, go throw, run the fourverts. You know what you can run four varts again. Run a go route. Like pick a dump. Oh, I'm going to go off on Marvin Harrison. Like the usage of the Cardinals. Can you tell? You're not wrong.

Starting point is 01:00:43 The Cardinals are being stupid. The Panthers will not be. But I'm still concerned basically on the touchdown and yards equity because Bryce Young was down by the bottom end of the league in yards per completion, which I found a little bit more stickier than air yards per attempt. just because it kind of tells you like what happens like you can attempt 40 yard passes all day long but if you're not completing any of them what does that really matter so the fact that he's so low on that I want to see it come up and I do believe it can I just want him more around wide receiver 22

Starting point is 01:01:15 which is still pretty aggressive I'm just not going to get into the bucket of this again happens to say like if we're all sitting here say go get McMillan he has malik neighbors Brian Thomas upside I don't disagree with you but don't make the mistake of drafting him in the third round of your draft and then now he has to do that for you to have any return on value. I genuinely think he's going to be a top 15 receiver this year, but you don't have to draft in there, which is your point. Right. That's the nice part. Make him in the fourth round.

Starting point is 01:01:42 It's totally fine. And you're going to be ahead of most people. If I had to pick one receiver who's not currently in the top 12, who will be consensus top 12 a year from now, he's my pick, like, number one with a bullet. And I just want to plant my flag in him. I want to be aggressive on him. I want to make sure that I have a. them on my rosters and that if I'm wrong, that's fine.

Starting point is 01:02:01 Like, people are wrong all the time. But like, I just feel, I just have a lot of conviction in, in McMillan. And situation I think is, I mean, the Panthers, we could talk about this for Bryce Young also. The defense is going to be bad. Like, they're going to throw a ton. And if Bryce Young is good at all, if he is even, and we always say this, if he is just what he was in the second half of last year, not even taking a step forward. If he is just what he was in the second half, that is more than good enough to support

Starting point is 01:02:24 a talent like Tedaro of McMillan. To Jake's point, if we were to take more. Marvin Harrison Jr. and airdropped him into the Carolina Panthers offense and we didn't see the rookie season and stuff like that. Where the hell will we be taking Marvin Harrison Jr. in this same situation. Yeah. You know, so I just think it's, it comes down to prospect fatigue like Jake talked about. And it comes down to people, everybody like shaded this wide receiver class and they shaded Tedderow McMillan and they said all these different things. And it's like, dude, like you got to separate what's real and from the BS noise. To Jake's point, I kind of want to do a dynasty league where we have our rookie.

Starting point is 01:02:59 draft just like the first week of January. I know you wouldn't know landing spots, but like, I don't want to get thrown off by all this other stuff. I just want to say, like, you know who was really good the last four months I was watching college football? Teteroa McMillan. I know it wasn't as good as it was the year before, but like, I'm tired of what we're thinking it. If I ever step out of this industry and I just want to burn my career to the ground, I've done some research on people's draft positions of players at the end of the college football season to when the actual draft happens when nothing is going on and the changes and how wrong some of our. I'm just saying, I have some receipts, then I'm going to burn everything to the ground.

Starting point is 01:03:36 If evil Jake pops up after my career is done. We'll wrap up on that threat from Jake. I'm coming for you all. So those are our breakout candidates in the middle and late rounds. A lot of good names. A lot of agreement. Arguably too much agreement on this show. But I thought you guys made really great picks.

Starting point is 01:03:53 So hard to, hard to, you know, push back on any of them. So hopefully go get these guys. There's two draft weekends left. Go draft these players. Enjoy the next couple of weeks. Thanks everybody for tuning in. For Jake and Debrough, I'm Ryan Warmly. We'll see again next time.

Starting point is 01:04:07 Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at Fantasyprose.com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros. And subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com. slash fantasy pros. Hey guys, it's us and the Jonas Brothers.

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Starting point is 01:05:00 We just contributed to it. We get to ask other people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

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Starting point is 01:05:30 This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smygle and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up fam? It's Isaiah Thomas.

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The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - Top 10 Breakout Candidates | Middle & Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Ep. 1664)

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