The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - Top 50 Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers (Ep. 1576)

Episode Date: May 24, 2025

Join Ryan Wormeli, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Derek Brown as they break down the Top 50 wide receivers in the FantasyPros consensus rankings heading into the 2025 NFL season! Intro - 0:00:00 Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Puka Nacua - 0:02:20 Amon-Ra St. Brown, Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., AJ Brown, Drake London, and Ladd McConkey - 0:04:51 DraftKings Sportsbook - 0:16:58 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tee Higgins, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, and Davante Adams - 0:18:26 Rashee Rice, DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison Jr., Zay Flowers, Courtland Sutton, DeVonta Smith, DK Metcalf, Xavier Worthy, Jameson Williams, Chris Godwin, and Chris Olave - 0:33:05 Microsoft Challenger Segment - 0:44:41 Jaylen Waddle, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Jerry Jeudy, Tet McMillan, and George Pickens - 0:46:31 Calvin Ridley, Rome Odunze, Khalil Shakir, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel, Jakobi Meyers, Jayden Reed, and Stefon Diggs - 0:52:38 Ricky Pearsall, Josh Downs, Cooper Kupp, Michael Pittman, Darnell Mooney, and Christian Kirk - 1:00:56 Outro - 1:07:46 Helpful Links: DraftKings Pick6 – Download the DraftKings Pick6 app NOW on Google Play or the App Store and use code FANTASYPROS. This offer is for new customers to play $5, get $50 in Pick6 credits. Only on DraftKings Pick6. The crown is yours.  Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org in Connecticut. Must be eighteen plus, age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction. Pick6 not available everywhere, including New York and Ontario. Void where prohibited. One per new customer. Bonus awarded as non-withdrawable Pick6 Credits that expire in thirty days. Limited time offer. See terms at https://pick6.draftkings.com/promos. Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator - Our Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator lets you complete a mock in minutes with no waiting between picks! Customize your league settings to match your league’s exact format. Premium subscribers can test trade scenarios by mocking with their traded draft picks. Prepare for rookie drafts AND dynasty startup drafts in one place! Use the Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator to dominate your rookie draft today at fantasypros.com/simulator! Discord - Join our FantasyPros Discord Community! Chat with other fans and get access to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Come get your questions answered and BE ON THE SHOW at fantasypros.com/chat Leave a Review – If you enjoy our show and find our insight to be valuable, we’d love to hear from you! Your reviews fuel our passion and help us tailor content specifically for YOU. Head to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts and leave an honest review. Let’s make this show the ultimate destination for fantasy football enthusiasts like us. Thank you for watching and for showing your support – https://fantasypros.com/review/ BettingPros Podcast – For advice on the best picks and props across both the NFL and college football each and every week, check out the BettingPros Podcast at bettingpros.com/podcast, our BettingPros YouTube channel at youtube.com/bettingpros, or wherever you listen to podcasts. ⁠⁠⁠Microsoft AI⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -⁠⁠⁠  Microsoft’s AI solutions empower you to take bold steps and make informed decisions, sparking new ideas to help drive your business forward. With Microsoft as your trusted partner, you can navigate your journey with confidence, finding innovative solutions and reaching new possibilities. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠microsoft.com/challengers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.

you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pro's football podcast. I'm Ryan warmly. I'm Ryan warmly. I'm joined today by DeBro and Pat Fitzmorest.

Fellas, we are talking some wide receiver rankings today. I was just saying to DeBrow before we started recording that when the three of us are together, I always feel like it's a Friday Key Questions episode in season. We're still a few months away from that. But as I always bring up, that's pretty much my favorite show to tape each week when we're in season. So always enjoyed doing shows with the three of you fellows. Fitz, before we dive in, where are you at kind of at this point in the prepping for the season process? I'm in the middle of my first redraft draft right now, which is kind of fun.

One of my followers put together a little like half analyst, half civilian draft. And it's super flex. And it's a lot of fun. It's kind of interesting to see where some of these guys are going and where some of the value is. So it's good to knock the rust off. But yeah, that's it. Just like spruced up the rankings a little bit recently and, you know, working on some player notes, some dynasty content.

But I'm feeling pretty good. I'm ready for, uh, ready for training camps, worm. How about you, do, bro? It's a player note season, baby. So getting through all the positions, getting ready for best ball season and, and just tightening up ranks, man. We're, I don't want to say. we're like at the precipice of redraft season, but can we say it's like slowly heating up like

it's on the horizon? Quick reminder for everybody that all of our 2025 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com slash rankings. If you want to kind of follow along with those rankings as we work through the top 50 wide receivers in those early rankings, you can surely find them there. Basically what we're going to do with this episode is kind of run through the top 50. We're not going to obviously deep dive on every single player because we can't really be here for six hours.

But we'll kind of go through in groupings, you know, roughly along the lines of where we have them tiered, but not strictly following those orders. And just have some interesting conversations, see where we agree, see where we disagree. And kind of just get an early look as we sit here in the second half of May. Still, you know, three-ish months away from most drafts. But kind of getting a snapshot of where the receiver landscape, how it looks and how we think it might change in the next few months. Sound good. Let's go. Top 50.

We'll start with the top four. that is a tier on the on the on the this by the way we're looking at the half ppr rankings uh on fantasy pros that com jimar chase number one justin jefferson number two cd lamb number three puka nukua number four dbro it's hard to imagine anybody really disagreeing not only with those names but largely with the order you might quibble here and there with one or two but it feels like it's a pretty clear top four i think it's a clear top two um my rankings i i think there's a player that we're going to get to that I think deserves to be in that top four, top five bucket.

But Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, C.D. Lam, Pucatikua. Like, again, there's not a whole lot of discussion here. I mean, all those guys to belong inside of the top five at the very least. Inside of the top, how many for your actual draft? Like, all these guys should be gone by what pick in the first round, D, bro? All these guys in my rankings right now would be gone by pick seven. Like, I've got it in my top. six players, five of those are wide receivers.

Okay. Fitz, what do you think? I mean, are these the right four names and, you know, top seven-ish and, you know, first half of the first round is where they should all be going? So I think the top three guys, Chase, Jefferson, and Lamb should be gone inside the top five overall, assuming you're in a league where you have to start three wide receivers, in which case that position is really important. I would personally, even though I do have Puka wide receiver four, he is part of my tier two and I think there is a case for some other guys to be ranked ahead of him

but like I think Chase is pretty clear wide receiver number one and then I think you could debate Jefferson versus Lamb for wide receiver two and then I think it's kind of a big second tier is Chase the number one overall pick by the way

he is for me he is for me I think I mean it's him or Sequin right or would you make the case for you? For me, it's Chase or Bijan. That's my R be one for this year.

Okay. Is it same for you, Fitz? Is it Bejohn or would it be Chaser, Sequin you're picking? It's Chaser Bejohn for me also. Bejohn too, okay. You know, I'm definitely a little terrified of Sequan's heavy workload last year, which really added up if you cut the playoffs. That'll be fun to do when we do a running back version of this episode.

But yeah, Chase Jefferson, Lamb, Nakua, we're not arguing too much there. Maybe with Puka, you could argue it in the next tier down. The next kind of group of names, it's kind of a larger group here. It's Amin Rae St. Brown, Malik Neighbors, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., A.J. Brown. Drake London and Ladd-McConkie. That is what the tier is in terms of ECR right now. I think most people would look at the top few names as you're clearly taking St. Brown and Malik Neighbors ahead of Ladd-McConkie, for example, as much as we might like Ladd.

So maybe there should be really a tier within there. Kind of that first group of names, guys. Amin-Rah, Malik Neighbors, Nico Collins. Fitz, is this where you have Puka kind of in with those names? Yes. I've got him at the top of that tier. And I think there's a case that you could put either of the LSU guys, Malik Nabors or Brian Thomas Jr., ahead of Puka.

But, you know, I still feel pretty good about Puka, despite the addition of DeMonte Adams and what that might mean for his target share. DeBrow, who is the name that you have, you said, possibly ahead of Puka here in your top, in your top four? It's Brian Thomas Jr., ma'am. He is my wide receiver three this year. here. The only guys that I have above him are Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson. And this comes down to he is one of like, if I want to rank a guy this high, and I think we're also being like,

easier as being a little dismissive. Like Brian Thomas Jr. at wide receiver eight, I think is honestly very dismissive considering what he did to tail end of the last year with Mack Jones as his freaking quarterback. Like after week 13 through 18, this dude was the wide receiver two in fantasy points per game behind only Jamar Chase. So can we not say that every single thing has gotten better for him this offseason? No, I'm not worried about Travis Hunter taking away targets. They are going to be the twin pillars of that passing attack. Trevor Lawrence back healthy, Liam Cohen in town. I don't see where he doesn't have an access point to being new wide receiver one overall this year and being in the conversation with Jefferson and Chase. So yeah, he's going to be my

wide receiver three throughout the rest of the process. Couldn't though, Debrough, could you make a similar argument from Alec Neighbors where he just had this insane rookie season with terrible quarterback play and now they have a rookie that you like quite a bit there? And I mean, he's still going to be like a dominant target share guy in this offense you would think. And he was so insanely good when he was on the field last year with that quarterback situation. He's also still pretty young.

So I feel like a lot of, I mean, the situation is better for Thomas. I think most would agree. But I feel like you could make a similar case for neighbors. taking a step up from what is already a very high starting point. I can't. And this all comes down to quarterback play. And as much as I love Jackson Dart, he's still an unknown commodity. And I don't even know if we see him play. Unless we're talking about it's James Winston playing, I can't get there because if Russell Wilson is starting games, if he starts the entire season, it will impact

Malik neighbors. Now, we can talk about all the bad quarterback play. The other part about Malik neighbors. And honestly, like, I've got him below consensus. I've got Malik neighbors at wide receiver 9 because I'm worried about Russell Wilson limiting his ceiling. What have we seen over the last two years, guys? That's what Russell Wilson does. He doesn't access the middle of the field. It's all go balls or nothing. And he's going to impact how fast that offense runs, how much they throw the ball.

I mean, George Pickens, we made the same kind of conversation last year. And yes, we could talk about the snaps here is going up and down and stuff like that. But also the year before that, Cortland Sutton, similar kind of thing where it was like, he's the only guy to catch passes. Russell Wilson ruined both of their seasons. So I still like Malik neighbors and I still have him as a wide receiver one because of his talent. But Russell Wilson's starting games, even if I think Jackson Dart gets on the field, and I do think that happens or James Winston, Russell Wilson still caps his ceiling for as long as he will be the starting quarterback for the Giants. Do you think Russell Wilson is a worst quarterback for him for fantasy than the situation he was in last year?

I do. Because you have him ranked lower than he finished last year. I do. And the other part that I hadn't even mentioned, what are we going to talk about the defensive upgrades? If this is a team that is playing, and I know their schedule is brutal, but if this is a team that is playing, not catch up and throwing the ball a ton, but if they're in neutral game scripts or heck, if they're winning some of these games, because their defense is so dramatically improved from last year as well, that's going to impact the passing rates. Fitz, what do you think? Because I look at it very differently from Debrough. I'm like, there's no way a healthy milk neighbor is getting fewer than like 12 targets a game. at worst. And I do think that in the course of the season, because I don't think Russ is going to start the whole year, I think in the course of the season, it is a quarterback upgrade compared

to what was last year. And he was so good already as a rookie. Like I, I think I'm clearly, based on this conversation, much higher on Avers than D. Brayor is. What do you think, Fitz? I'm, I'm with you for him. Like, Russ, yeah, we're not getting vintage Seattle era Ross, but still he averaged 225 passing yards a game and 7.4 yards per attempt last season. It's not like we're facing a Saints-type quarterback situation, sorry, Dibro, where it's Tyler Schock or Jake Hainer or Spencer Rattler. Like, you know, I think the Giants are going to get competent quarterbacking. There is a scenario where maybe we get James for a few starts, which would be a bonanza for all his past catchers and especially neighbors. And, you know, maybe we get some Jackson Dart too.

Debrough likes him more than I do, but not necessarily a bad thing for Malik Nassiz. neighbor. So I yeah, to me neighbors is still, I've got him at wide receiver five, but I have not fully come to terms with how I want to rank Puka neighbors and Brian Thomas. To me, that's a really tight bunching at four through six. Dibro, do you want to take? Oh, go ahead. Malik Neighbors has wide receiver one overall upside because to rank him that high, I think like he has to have that type of upside for me. And I don't see that at all for my neighbors. I do. I think I think, I think, I think Brian Thomas Jr. has a better chance at being wide receiver one overall this. year than Neighbors does.

But I would say Neighbors has that kind of upside, especially if, I mean, if DART is as good as you believe he is, D-Bro, then I think he will start early in the season. I mean, just the first-round quarterbacks always, they start earlier and earlier. It feels like every year. And I think if he is good, Neighbors was so good last year. And again, this depth chart is not imposing. There's no Travis Hunter here that's going to take away targets, right? Like he is going to get every target he can handle.

So I do think there is that kind of upside. Put it this way, Debrough. If I told you James Winston was going to make 10 starts this year, would you think that Malik Neighbors had wide receiver one upside? I would. This is a Russ thing. I don't like Russ. And I think he hurts this overall offense.

I think it's very fair to be anti-Russ. The number of starts that he makes this year will hurt Malik Neighbors. If you were telling me this is Winston, yeah. I would bump up my ranking. He'd be a top five wide receiver for me, no doubt. I don't think there's a ton of argument about some of these other guys here. I mean, I'm a little, not worried about Ammonrae St. Brown. He's really good.

But I'm curious to see what the offense looks like without Ben Johnson. I mean, this is still a first-round pick. I'm not, like I said, I'm not overly concerned. You know, Nico Collins, I think a lot of people are going to agree with where he's at, AJ Brown. Debrough, do you want to take 20 seconds, just clear the pain on Drake London? Dude, I love Drake London. I think that his ceiling is so much higher with Michael Pennix.

Like, I've got Drake London as wide receiver seven. I think he is a dark horse candidate for wide receiver one overall this year. You look at how much consolidation. Because really, the path for any one of those guys to say you have a path for wide receiver one overall, there doesn't need to be a ton of target competition that's going to impact you getting to, you probably need 10 to 12 touchdowns at least. You're probably going to need to sniff in that 160 to 180 target range. Who's taken that away from Drake London?

If Michael Pennix can unlock, and we saw this over the back half of the season, unlock what we haven't seen from Drake London. And that's the downfield role. Darno Mooney, Kyle Pitts, they're not taking away red zone targets away from Drake London. So if they're not going to take away the red zone targets away from Drake London, he's getting the red zone usage so the touchdowns can be there. The downfield usage and not all this checkdown Charlie crap we got from last year out of Kirk Cousins, that's what we could elevate Drake London and it gives him that type of ceiling.

Do Ladd-McConkie belong in this tier? I mean, you guys all have, and Erickson, too, you're all in consensus. You have him wide receiver 11 this year, which is where he is in ECR. But do you see that as a part of this tier two or more the top end of tier three fits? I'm okay with putting him in this tier, but like he's clearly at the bottom of the tier to me. It's either that or he's clearly at the top of the next tier. Like he's almost a firewall between the two tiers. Okay.

Can I expand on what you were saying about Amun Ra real quick? go ahead. I mean, for me, it's not just Ben Johnson leaving, although that is definitely a concern. Like, his fantasy scoring was down last year. Amun Ra went from 17-half-point PPR fantasy points per game in 2023 to 15.2 last year. That's still really good, of course. But for Amun Rae St. Brown to get within two fantasy points per game of where he was in 2023, he needed to set a career high in touchdowns with 12 last year, and he boosted his catch rate by nine percentage points to a career high, 81.6%, which is just nuts. He had been living in the low 70s, 81.6. And it's because his targets fell off. He went from 10.3 targets a game in 2023 to 8.3 targets per game in

2024, and like two fewer targets a game. The emergence of Jameson Williams was a big part of that, I think, and that's why I'm not, like, I don't think Amman Ra's a slam dunk. middle of the first round wide receiver anymore. I think he's more like a guy you should be looking at on the turn in the first round of redraft. We've got to move on, Debrough, but do you have any just quick thoughts in St. Brown? I know you've been a big fan of his in the past. I don't disagree with anything that Fitsy said.

I've got Amon Ra as my 11th overall player. I've got a swath of running backs ahead of him, and I think he belongs in the turn. I just think like Amin Ra, my problem with Amin Ra is I don't see an outcome where he just absolutely buries me and burns me as the wide receiver one overall. And if that's the case, he's just a mid-tier, low-end wide receiver one. I mean, there's a lot of guys we could talk ourselves into with that. Do you guys think, actually, before I move on from this tier, I see it as there's maybe about five running backs that are kind of sprinkled in amongst these first 11 receivers at some point

in your rankings, but I kind of feel like all 11 of these receiver names we've just mentioned should be off the board by about pick 16. Because I really don't think outside of, you know, Bijon, Gibbs, Barclay, Gentie, Derek Henry, like maybe you throw another one in there. For me, it's really probably those five. Outside of that, I want my first two picks to be coming from this pool of receivers. Do you see it similarly, D-Bro or no? I have more running backs in there. Like, I think Christian McCaffrey deserves to be back in this conversation.

I think Bucky Irv... I'm too scared to draft McCaffrey. I can't take him over a receiver. I'm just saying where I'm at. I'm back in on CMC. I think Bucky Ear. deserves to be in this conversation. I think Derek Henry, I'm honestly shocked, shocked, worm that you don't believe that

Derek Henry deserves to be in that kind of. No, I would say Henry is the fifth of those. I'd say Bijan Gibbs, Barclay, Gentie Henry would be the five. But the other part about it is I think that inside the top 20, the two top tight ends, Trey McBride and Brock Bowers deserve to be in that conversation too. So that pushes down the back end of this wide receiver tier for me. Okay. So do you see it that way too fits? Because for me, the back end of this receiver tier, I would definitely rather take then,

like those tight ends, but I would just rather take one of these receivor. receivers and then? I do have the top 10 receivers and the top 15 overall. And then McConkey, I've got a little further down. I've got some, I've got a group of running backs in between number 10, AJ Brown and then Ladd McConkey at 11. Okay. And is it the similar group of names that running back fits? I mean, like obviously Bejohn Gibbs, Barclay, Gentie. Yeah, I mean, I've got those five squeezed into the top 15 and then the guys I've got in front of McConkey are guys like A. Chan and Josh Jacobs and Bucky Irving. Okay. It is officially the best time of year for Hoops fans,

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And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. All right, guys, the next group of names here. Jackson Smith and Jigua, this is starting at wide receiver 12. Jackson Smith and Jigua, T. Higgins, Tyree Kill, Mike Evans, Terry McClare and Garrett Wilson, and Devante Adams that runs from wide receiver 12 to 18. I want to hit on a couple of these names, but I know the big disagreement here is going to be Devonte Adams based on your guys's rankings. Dibrah, I'll let you go first on why this is too low.

Dude, Matthew Stafford is a kingmaker. We've seen this year after year after year. And I think that we're seeing, we're going to see, again, I'm, and we've discussed this and other shows, but I'm lower on Kyron Williams. I think that Matthew Stafford, and we're looking at what he's done as a quarterback over the last few years, I think, and we all like to talk about regression, we can talk about regression in a positive sense. Matthew Stafford has had horrible passing touchdown rates, and what are we seen out of his past game weapons? Like Cooper Cup fading into oblivion, we talk about Pooka and Akua not being healthy, Tyler Higby just being a supporting guy. Matthew

Stafford, 3.3, 4.6, 3.9 passing touchdown rates. I'm old. enough to remember in his first year with the Rams 6.8%. So I think we're going to get more passing touchdowns come back to this offense. I've got Devante Adams as my wide receiver 10. I know that's aggressive, but Adams showed no fall off last year with the Jets. Like after he got to the Jets, he was top 28 in both separation rate, route win rate. He was on pace for almost 180 targets and he was the wide receiver seven in fantasy points per game. Like he was giving Garrett Wilson to run for his money every single week. And we could talk about, okay, fine, that's Aaron Rogers and stuff like that.

Matthew Stafford also hyper targets, guys. It's legit just Adams and Puka. And you want to throw Tyler Higbee into that trio, but he's a very distant third. I mean, both of these guys are going to get 160 plus targets this year, and Adams hasn't fallen off at all. He's a wider super one. You said you have him at 10, and then did you say you do have Puka at 4? Or did you have them?

I've got Pooka at 4. Yep. Okay, at 4 and then Adams at 10. Fitz, what do you think? Yeah, just to give people a little peek behind the curtain here when we were briefly messaging each other about the show over the weekend, mainly just figuring out when exactly we were going to record it. D.brough said something like, you know, this ECR for Devante Adams is crazy. And like I could just feel the contempt oozing from D.E.ro as I'm reading this message. And then I look at ECR. He's at wide receiver 18. I look at my rankings. He's wide receiver 17. It's like, okay, I guess Debrough and I are going to fight about this. And look, none of what I'm going to say is meant to disparage the abilities of DeVante Adams.

I'm a Green Bay Packers fan. I love Devante. But we have to acknowledge that, you know, Devante is playing with another prolific target earner in Puka. And that Devonte is now 32. And like, even though Puka and Devonte are going to combine for a big percentage of team targets for the Rams, that target percentage is still likely to be under 50%. I mean, not far under, but still under 50%. And for Puka and Devante to both finish his top 10 receivers, we are obviously talking about a big juicy season for Matthew Stafford.

Like, let's open the bidding at 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. That's probably the bare minimum Stafford would need to float top 10 fantasy seasons for two receivers. I mean, he could certainly do it and has done it. But Stafford has only hit 30 touchdowns once in the last 9. years and he's 37 now and like he was that for with fittsy wait say that again his I said what team was that for Fancy the Rams? Nine years ago uh well maybe it was no no no no years ago you're right you're right 41 touchdowns with the Rams sure I know but that's that's once in nine years like his his

I checked draft Kings and his futures like his over under on touchdowns is 24 and a half for this season You know, and like the yardage total is higher. I think he's at like 4,100 yards and something. Like that's encouraging to see. But look at it this way, D'Brow. From the time Devante Adams joined the Jets in week seven last year through the end of the regular season, like Aaron Rogers played reasonably well.

He was the QB 15 for fantasy over that stretch with Devante. And he produced at about a 3,900-yard 29 touchdown pace. and over that period, Devante Adams was wide receiver 9 and a half point PPR fantasy points per game and Garrett Wilson was wide receiver 27. And it's not like any other Jets pass catcher was doing much. So it's really hard to get like high level production from two receivers in one passing attack unless the quarterback's just putting up insane numbers. And hey man, like I don't do rankings based solely on how the projections work out. Like I do want to capture contingent upside. What if what if Puka missed like four or five games. Like if Puka misses any week, I'm ranking Adams as a top five receiver that

week, well, unless he's up against, you know, Patrick Sertan or some other ace cover guy, but still, I think we at least have to tip our hats to the projections and getting top 10 fantasy seasons from two wide outs on the same team is a pretty tough needle to thread. I don't disagree that it's a tough needle to thread, but you did toss out Aaron Rogers' stats towards the end of the year. I'll give you some Matthew Stafford stats. So he did fall off the last three regular seasons games, so weeks 15 through 17. Before that, so weeks 8 through 14, with Pooka Nakuwa and a washed version of Cooper Cup, Matthew Stafford was averaging 273 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. He was on a full season pace. So this is seven games,

guys. So almost a half a season. He was on a full season pace for 4600 passing yards and 39 passing touchdowns. So I think Stafford's still got a lot more left in the tank. And I think the Rams showed us in a small snippet of last year with a much improved wide receiver two in, or should I say wide receiver 1B in this passing attack? Stafford's going to have a huge resurgence this year. Where's Stafford ranked for you, D, bro? QB13. He's on the fringe of QB1 for me. Where's he ranked for you fits. Yeah, I've got him like in in more mid range QB to like I've got him QB 20 right now. It's probably too low. I got to move him up a little bit but he doesn't run. Also in that in that stretch he was the QB 11 and fantasy points per game.

Okay. Other names in this group. So again, Adams is actually at the bottom of this grouping watch over 18 in ECR. The other names JSN, T. Higgins, Tyree Kill, Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin. Garrett Wilson, I don't know. I mean, some of these names are obviously on the older end, like Tyree Kill, Mike Evans, Terry McClureen is sneaky older than you might realize.

JSN obviously had a nice step forward last year. He's got a new play caller now in Seattle, but also, you know, no DK Metcalf around anymore. Tyler Lockett, you know, T. Higgins sticks in Cincinnati. Garrett Wilson gets reunited with his college quarterback, and there is nobody else to catch passes in that passing game. It's kind of an interesting group of names to parse through. DeBrow,

look at this grouping of guys from 12 to 18? There are two guys that just stand out. Like I don't disagree. One, if Mike Evans can stay healthy and he played a lot of games last year, showed no fall off, Mike Evans is going to be a value again this year. But the two guys that I want to highlight, especially in this tier is Jackson Smith and Jigba and Tyree Kill.

Like I will not be drafting Tyree Kill as a top 15 wide receiver. Just I'm not doing it, man. Whether you want to talk about the risk, you want to talk about the age, you want to talk about the fall off of last year with Tua even back in the lineup, Tyreek showed his age. He was the wide receiver 24 in weeks 8 through 16 with two a back. And his per route metrics all fell off and stuff. So you can count me out on Tyree Kill this year. And Jackson Smith and Gigubbub like, I loved him going into last year at this price point. What the heck are we doing here, guys?

Like, are we serious with this? Like, he was the wide receiver 17 in fantasy points per game last year. What improved about his situation? Like Sam Darnold versus Gino Smith. Give me Gene. know every single time. The offensive line, we hope, is going to be better. If it's not Sam Arnold, yikes. If Sam Darnold's bad, then when do we get Jalen Milro? They're not throwing the ball with him. They've already said and come out and say they're going to run more this year. So JSN is a low A dot guy. He is. He's a low, he's a short area guy. So I mean, 137 targets last year. Does he get back to that this year? I just, there's no way that I can rank Jackson Smith and Jigua this high, man.

Like, look, as I'm projecting, like, I've got him at wide receiver 20. I look at him as a mid to low range wide receiver two, and I've got a lot of scary questions about him. If he's not getting fueled by a ton of targets every single week, and if that offense goes more run heavy, if Cooper Cup does show any sign of life and he cuts into those underneath targets, if this offense is just straight up bad, man. Or they're just run heavy. Like, it, it all, nothing points me to saying, Jackson's been the Jigba should be one, a wide receiver one in rankings, or two,

where's the ceiling? Like, if you're ranking him as a wide receiver 12, I hope they're sealing for him to be a like a top five to seven guy. And I just, I don't see the outcome there. Fitz, I'm curious what you think. I think Dibro makes a good point about the ceiling. I don't, I don't know that I see a reasonable, realistic outcome where he finishes his top five receiver. Having said that, I do still think he's

going to get a ton of targets. I mean, they got rid of DK Metcalf. Like, maybe unless you think Cooper Cups turning back the clock, like I do think JSN is going to lead this team in targets, like by a sizable amount is how I'm looking at this. And even with those targets now coming from Sam Darnold, I do think that means like close to 100 catches. Yeah, I mean, everyone was freaked out about Justin Jefferson last year and how Sam Darnold might pose a threat to Jefferson's fantasy value and that really wasn't the case. I mean, Darnel was okay. So I'm not really too worried about that yet I would prefer Gino Smith. But and the other thing is just, I don't know, D bro. Like I don't want to look at the full season with JSN because of how well the back half of the

season went for him over the first eight weeks of the season. I want to say there was only one game where JSN had more than 69 receiving yards. But then from week nine, on he had a seven game stretch seven straight games with at least 74 receiving yards topping out at like 180 in one of those games like he was a different guy over the second half of the season high volume guy and he's totally poised to be a high volume guy again so uh yeah like i like i don't think he belongs in that upper tier uh that second tier with like you know lad and and everyone who's above lad but i do think he belongs on the next tier do you do you think the passing rate goes down for Seattle because that's the big worry for me.

Like I think they are going to dial back the passing rate a ton for a team that was seventh and passing attempts last year. Do you think they sniff anywhere close to that this year, Fidsey? Yeah, I mean closer to league average, probably. So if they drop from seven to 15th, that's not going to impact JSN? Oh, I mean marginally. Like, no more than what? That leads me to like he's not a wide receiver one then for me.

Like, with the, with the massive passing volume and over the stretch that you decided, it's he was wide receiver 8. So like, okay, we're, we're dinging him a little bit at wide receiver 12. But I just don't think we're dingin him enough. Yeah. I mean, wide receiver 12 is where I have him. And I do think, like, you know, he's part of a tier that stretches from like 12 to 18. So, you know, like I'm reluctant to categorize him as a wide receiver one, even though technically yes, I guess a wide receiver 12. I do have him there.

So I'm not like I'm not totally, I don't totally disagree with what you said, D bro. But like I'm looking more at the strong second half of the season he had as like the harbinger of what's to come. I just look at it. It feels like a scenario we're buying a guy at probably close to if not his ceiling. Like last year, if that was his ceiling with what the way that I'm projecting this offense this year, I think he takes a step back. but the question is how much of a step back? And there's just other guys.

Like I would rather bet on like I'd rather bet on Mike Evans, um, continue to do Mike Evans things. I'd rather bet on T. Higgins in the passing right there. I'd rather bet on Terry McClure and Garrett Wilson. Devante Smith can still doing the things that they've done. So it's just, I want to hit on Garrett Wilson for a second.

I feel like I'm going to be getting a lot of him if he stays ranked here. I mean, he's never missed a game in his three years in the NFL. He's only 24 years old. He's coming off of career highs. and catches, yards, and touchdowns. You know, the lowest he's finished in his three years outside of the middle year, which had just the worst quarterback situation of all time,

is wide receiver 19. That feels like the floor. He's now with his college quarterback again. I really like Garrett Wilson. I think he should be closer to the top of this tier than the bottom, D, bro. I'm totally with you. Like, he's wide receiver 17. I've got him a smidge higher at wide receiver 14.

But, dude, I just feel like this is Justin Fields and, DJ Moore all over again. And we were wrong then, and I feel like people are going to be wrong now. Like, I'm going to be drafting Garrett Wilson. I have no problems with expecting. And even if you want to sit there and say, okay, fine, it's not Justin Fields. Tyra Taylor, think he's good enough to support one wide receiver. And who else is catching passes for the Jets?

Like, I would rather have him, some of the guys ahead of him. I would just rather draft Garrett Wilson than Tyree Kill. Like, I'd rather draft him than T. Higgins, honestly, like, Terry McLaren. I just. I'll draft him over J. us in. I'll say it. Yeah. Fitz, what do you think about Garrett Wilson quickly before we move on? Yeah, I'm low man on the staff on Garrett Wilson and like I could make a case for moving him up a little higher. So Justin Fields best season with the Bears was 2023. He missed four games, but Fields was on pace

for about 3,400 yards and 21 touchdowns. DJ Moore was wide receiver six overall and wide receiver 10 in fantasy points per game that season. So there's definitely a case to be made for Garrett Wilson being at the top of that wide receiver two tier. Yeah. All right, let's go to the next group of names here. This runs from wide receiver 19 to 29. We're going to kind of do larger groups as we get further down just to get through all the names. And we don't have to hit on everybody, but just to read through the names from wide receiver 19 to 29.

Rishie Rice, DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison Jr., Zay Flowers, Cortland Sutton, Devante Smith, D.K. Metcalfe, Xavier Worthy, Jameson, William, Chris Godwin, and Chris Alave. Fitz, I want to, I'm curious who stands out to you, but before, I want to just highlight the name that stands out to me, which is Marvin Harrison, Jr. This is somebody that we were very high on last year, somebody who, despite the fact that, you know, everybody is viewing his season as this major disappointment was not bad for a rookie receiver, almost 900 yards. He had eight touchdowns. It was a difficult situation in terms of the usage that Arizona was putting him into and not giving him a lot of easy targets and easy ways to get fantasy. and he didn't quite have that great connection with Kyler Murray. But this is still a remarkably talented player that we thought of as one of the best wide

receiving prospects to come into the NFL in a few years, still only 22 years old. I'm not saying he should be ranked higher right now, but I think a year from now there's a very real chance he's a tier or two higher than he is right now. Possibly. Yeah, I'm a little conflicted on him. Like, I would be pretty surprised if he did not outperform his rookie numbers on a per game basis. I expect that to happen. Like, the target count in his rookie year wasn't what we'd hoped for, and a lot of the targets were of the deep variety. Like, his average depth of target

was 13.4 yards. That's, like, not ideal. Harrison isn't just like some vertical receiver. You know, he should be an all over the field receiver. Like, Jamar Chase and an average depth of the target of 8.7 yards. And he did catch deep balls, but he also caught a little, like little hitches, bubble screens, things designed to get him the ball quickly, easy completions, and let him make magic after the catch. And I want more of that for Marvin Harrison. It does seem like, I don't know, something about the Kyler Murray Marvin Harrison pairing just worries me a little bit. And, you know, like I was on a guest on a show the other week where one guy was worried that it was because Kyler has trouble seeing over the line of scrimmage. And maybe that's

night ideal for Harrison. I'm not sure I totally buy that theory, but like it's a plausible explanation. So yeah, I mean, I do think Harrison's going to have a better season, but like, I don't know if this is going to be the breakout we're really hoping for. One stat that Erickson likes to bring up a lot is that the wide receiver won every year is always the guy who led the league in red zone targets. And Marvin Harrison Jr. was that guy for the Cardinals last year. I think it was red zone targets and not end zone targets. I'm sorry if I'm misquoting Erickson. But whichever one it was, Harrison was like by far the number one guy for Arizona last

year, you know, ahead of like Trey McBride and anybody else in the team. They just weren't connecting on those targets. You know, having said all that and kind of making the upside case, D, bro, at the same time, you know, we're hoping that we're saying he's really talented, but the problem last year was that, you know, the situation didn't work out because of the play calling and play design and his usage and also the quarterback. it's the same play caller and the same quarterback this year. Yep.

And I'm below ECR on Marvin Harrison Jr. I've got him at Wider Super 24 right now. And I just to buy into Marvin Harrison Jr. I feel like I've got a buy into Kyla Murray and I can't do that, man. Like he's played, to be on it like on a per dropback basis, he's been God awful over the last two years. If it wasn't for that contract, you'd be hearing quarterback controversies in Arizona. And I just, I just can't, man.

Like not only like we brought up. points about the offensive coordinator and the usage of him last year. I brought this up of previous shows, but week one through nine, you're looking at a guy that ran only less than 30% of his routes with horizontal breaking routes, almost 50% of them were vertical breaking routes. Now, weeks 10 through 18, that flipped a little bit, 41% horizontal, 38% vertical. So that did change, but I worry that we see a revisiting by troupetzing to last year's, Oh, Marvin Harrison Jr. is our downfield guy.

He's going to be running clearouts because the fact of it is, is who the heck else is going to be doing that on the Arizona depth chart? They don't have that guy. So like, they had multiple spots this off season. Like, go add a field stretcher, add speed, add somebody that can give you that verticality to this offense. So you're not asking that out of Marvin Harrison Jr. They didn't do that. So like, it's the assumption of rational coaching. Can I tell you definitively that the O.C.

for Arizona is not going to do dumb stuff this year and have Marvin Harrison Jr. running clearouts and it's Trey McBride again operating as the heavy underneath guy for the Arizona Cardinals? No, can I tell you that Kyler Murray is going to magically throw 25 passing touchdowns this year? Probably not. Can I tell you Kyle Murray is going to be a good quarterback this year on a per dropback basis? Again, probably not. So it's just, it comes down to I'm probably going to be close to ECR with Marvin Harrison Jr. I'm not going to bury him because of people, if I'm wrong, I want people to get exposure to him in drafts. But I have a harder time seeing the outcome of where he crushes his ADP. I see more things pointing to Arizona doing dumb stuff and Kyler playing bad for what will be

a third year in a row. And that'll lead me out on Marvin Harrison Jr. Fitz, who else stands out to you in this range of players? Again, Rice, Moore, Flowers, Sutton, Smith, Metcalf, I skipped over Harrison. William's Godwin Olave. I mean, I feel like Devante Smith is maybe a little underranked. Xavier Worthy is maybe a little underranked. Chris Alave, if he is not, you know, if he's healthy and on the field, I think he's definitely underranked. Who stands out to you here?

Rishie Rice. Like so many, there are a lot of smart people in the fantasy industry who are really high on Rishie Rice, so it scares me a little bit to know where I have him ranked, like as a high end wide receiver three. I mean, yeah. Where do you have, Fitsy? Because I think we might be handholding. No, you're like you're fading them even more than I am.

I've got him at. Oh, okay. Because I have my wide receiver 32. Yeah, I've got him at 28. And even, even Erickson, Erickson is high man at like wide receiver 20, but I think that might still be behind ECR or where's ECR on him? ECR's 19. 19.

Okay. So it's about fine. Yeah, I mean, so yes, Rishi Rice was terrific in 2023 when Patrick Mahomes said Rice and Travis Kelsey and pretty much no one else to throw to. But it was sort of gimmicky production. Rice had an average depth of the target of 4.8 yards. And last year when he got off to the fast start before the injury, like Xavier Worthy was totally getting his sea legs in that offense. Like he had not really made an impact other than that opener where he just had the touchdowns. And like there's no denying that Rishi Rice is really good at what he does, but there is no denying the existence of Xavier Worthy,

really came on down the stretch last season and I think is a better conventional wide receiver, a guy who can actually beat defenders with this route running. Plus, they still have Hollywood Brown, who wasn't there when Rice had the big year in 2023. They drafted Jalen Royals, who a lot of people like. Kelsey is still there. And like, we should also probably consider the possibility that even if Rishi Rice isn't facing a suspension this year for that debt. Dallas drag racing incident is still a little bit of a knucklehead. So, yeah, I just, like, I can't get on board with Rishi Rice as like a late second round pick.

Like some of these sharp people seem to believe, I just, I don't get it. Debrough, I'm curious when you look at this Chiefs team, because you have Rice 32, as you said, it looks like you're the one guy on staff who has worthy even lower than Rice. And let me know if these rankings aren't updated. It's been a few days. You also have Travis Kelsey's tight end seven, and yet you have. Patrick Mahomes. You have them lower the consensus, but you still have them as a top 12 quarterback. So I'm wondering how the math adds up that Mahomes is going to produce that much

if you don't have a single chiefs receiver inside the top 30, and even their tight end is no longer a top five tight end for you. It's wide receiver by committee. It comes down to they're going to spread the ball around. In some weeks, it could be Hollywood Brown. Some weeks it could be Rashie Rice. Some weeks, it could be Xavier Worthy. Some weeks, it could be Travis Kelsey. Some weeks, it could be one of the running backs, catching passes out of the backfield. I think Mahomes is shown that he can get there as low end QB1. But my problem with this passing offense, and there's a few passing offenses that we could talk about just that I don't really have a ton of interest in this year, because I feel like it's going to be an absolute dumpster fire mess to figure out where the ball is

going on a weekly basis. You could talk about Buffalo. You can talk about Green Bay. Kansas City is firmly in that. And so my homes, I think, can get there. But Rice, the big problem that I have with him, dude is there's one role. There's one high volume role in this offense. And Rice played it weeks one through three. He had an eight out of four point eight, 27.6 percent design target rate. Xavier Worthy played this role in weeks 13 through 16. When Fitsy talked about he came on, he was playing the Rishi Rice role. His ADA was 6.3. His design target rate was almost 26%. There's one role. Who gets the role? I don't know. I don't know. I I have no clue.

I don't even know if both of those guys, maybe they share it based off of matchups on a week to week basis. So for me, it's like one of those words like, I don't think these guys burn me based off of how this offense operates this year. That's why it's like, I can't definitively tell you when I've seen Rishi Rice operate in that role, but also in the same exact freaking season, I've seen Xavier Worthy operate in that same role.

I cannot tell you definitively that. okay yeah sure rice comes back and he's going to be that guy again we've seen Xavier worthy do the same dang thing can you can anybody definitively tell me without there like outside of just convicting their priors that that will emphatically be rishi rice i don't think anybody can definitively say that deeper i know you want to talk about zay flowers we got to move on so just keep it quick but uh do you think he's too high too lower just right at wider receiver 22 i think people are drunk with ranking him where they're ranking him he hasn't produced as a wide receiver two in any season so far.

Wide receiver 32, wide receiver 31, and fantasy points per game. We know what this offense is going to look like for Baltimore. When they get in the red zone, it's going to be Lamar's legs, Derek Henry running the ball in, Mark Andrews, or hey, guess what, DeAndre Hopkins. So I don't see their ceiling, whether it's passing volume or touchdowns for Zayflowers to all of a sudden in his third year, magically be a wide receiver two when he has never done that in any point of his career or this point. Yeah, I kind of get that.

He had that stretch in the middle of last season where he was really awesome. But outside of that, it was, I think, underwhelming relative to what his ranking right now. He had eight red zone targets all of last season. Does anybody think that's going up? I don't. No, I think it's still going to be a lot of Derek Henry

and the tight ends when they're in close. So it's going to need to come from the big plays. All right, welcome to this week's chasing challenges brought to you by Microsoft, just like the athletes who push boundaries and redefine what's possible, business decision makers today are turning challenges into opportunities. Microsoft meets you where you are with tools and guidance that help you make an impact with safe, secure AI solutions.

Players and teams are facing their own challenges. In this segment, we spotlight athletes or teams that are currently undergoing a challenge, what this means from a fantasy or betting standpoint, and examine how we think they can overcome them. Whatever challenge you're facing, Microsoft empowers you with the expertise to say, bring it on. This week, we're discussing the challenge faced by Chris Alave, as he enters a 2025 season marked by question marks surrounding both his health and his quarterback situation.

Alave has been a favorite early target for fantasy managers in recent years as a polished young wide receiver product out of Ohio State. He topped 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons in New Orleans and many expected his touchdowns to jump up in year three. Instead, last year was the toughest of his career. Alave only played six full games after suffering another concussion. Even when he played, Alave was outproduced by Rashid Shahid. and now the Saints have one of the potentially worst quarterback rooms in the NFL this season. Sorry, Dibro. Alave's first priority is getting past the concussions and hopefully enjoying a fully healthy season. But even if he does, he'll be catching passes from unknowns like Tyler Shook, Spencer Rattler, or even Jake Hainer.

The talent is still there, but Alave may not have the highest ceiling as a fantasy receiver. And the injury history gives him a low floor too. He'll look to overcome these challenges to bounce back for the Saints and fantasy managers in 2025. That's it for this week's chasing challenges. Remember, Microsoft's AI solutions empower you to take bold steps and make informed decisions, sparking new ideas to help drive your business forward. With Microsoft as your trusted partner, you can navigate your journey with confidence, finding innovative solutions, and reaching new possibilities. Visit Microsoft.com slash challengers to learn more. All right, guys, a couple handful of names here in the early 30s.

Jalen Waddle, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Jerry Judy, Teteroa McMillan, and George Pickens. Debrough, I know, well, actually, I don't know if you're going to agree with me on these two head to head. I know you're going to agree that the rookies are both too low. I like Tet better than Travis Hunter for this year. Part of that is just kind of playing scared, and I need to see it to believe it with whatever the usage is going to be in Jacksonville. And because of that reason, I'd rather just take the almost guaranteed if he's healthy, like 120 targets, Tett's going to see from what looks like an improved passing game

at the second half of last season. So I do like both of these guys higher than where they are in consensus, but I like Tett a lot higher. I mean, I've got both of these guys. I've got Tetero McNeillan and Travis Hunter. Hunter inside of my top 24 wide receivers for this year. I've got Tedroa McMillan at wide receiver 22. I've got Travis Hunter at wide receiver 23. And I think you're looking at a situation with Teddow McMillan. Who else are we worried about? Like I understand Adam Thielen was

gobbling up targets last year. If we're talking about where they're at in their respective careers, do we really think that Adam Thielen? I understand like, okay, fine, Thorne in the side. He's going to be the number two in this passing attack. But still, like, where he's at in his career, is he going to draw targets over Tedderow McMillan, where he was drafted, the talent upside and everything, I don't see it, man. And the thing about Carolina that I'll point out real fast is I also think when we saw the emergence of Bryce Young, this team was 13th in neutral passing rate. So there is stones throw away from being a top 12 passing rate team.

So we could also be underrating the volume for Carolina this year from the passing department. So that's why I've got Tet where I've got. like I'm going to bet on the talent. I'm going to bet on underrated volume. And the same thing for Travis Hunter, man. Like I don't think you're Jacksonville and you make that type of aggressive move up the board to go draft a freaking corner. I think Travis Hunter is going to be a full time wide receiver. I didn't think that going into the draft. But considering the landing spot, considering the aggressive move up, you don't make that move up and give away that type of capital for a guy you are going to play as a full time corner. They could say whatever the heck they want to. He is going to be featured as a

wide receiver. And if it's only him and Brian Thomas Jr. catching passes there because Parker, Washington, Diami Brown, Brinton Strange, none of these guys are going to garner over a 13 or 14 percent target share. It is not going to happen. So you're looking at Travis Hunter is probably walking into 22,

23, 24, 25 percent. Like, yeah, then that's going to put him somewhere around that top 24 range. It just feels fits like this, you're getting a discount on TET because I don't see. anyway if he has a healthy season that he is going this low again next year like i think this is the

lowest he will be for the next several years he's just that talented of a guy and again is going to get all the targets he can handle in carolina it reminds me of like a i don't think he's as good a player as malik neighbors but it reminds me a lot of last year what i was saying about neighbors as he's never going to go this low again he's going to get every target this year and if he's healthy he is guaranteed to be a value at his current cost and again i don't think he's as good as neighbors but in a similar vein is how I'm looking at it. And it looks like based on your rankings, you agree, Fitz. You do have Hunter below Tet like me.

Do you, is that because of concerns about what the usage will be? Or do you think, like, even if Hunter is getting enough snaps to make us happy on the offensive side of the ball, that you would still prefer Tet? I'm concerned. Hunter says he wants to play defense. Like he, you know, basically demanded that beforehand. He said he's going to play some defense or like he wouldn't want to go to whichever team drafted him and wasn't going to give him defensive snaps. Because of that, I do not think he

sees like an 80% snapshot offensively. And like the top receivers are all around like a 93% snapshot guys like Jamar Chase, CD Lam or whatever. If you're not seeing that, I mean, it just chips away your possible production at the margins. So no, like I can't, I can't get Hunter inside the top 20 or 25. I feel like Ted is easily my favorite name in this group. And and even I like him ahead of names in a lot of the names in the tier ahead of him. Is there anybody else in this group worth highlighting fits? You know, Jalen Waddle, Jordan Addison, Jerry, Judy, George Pickens. Waddle.

Let's talk about Waddle. Like, ECR is wide receiver 30. Dbrough, Erickson, and I are all above consensus on him. And I'm actually the lowest at wide receiver 27. I'm a little mad at Dbrough crowd. I mean, I'm at 26. So we're like right next to each other, bro. Yeah.

And I mean, like, here's a guy who was a top 10 draft pick who began his NFL career with three straight thousand-yard seasons and has a plausible reason for the drop-off last year missed a couple of games. Tua missed a few games and like the Miami offense was just dead in the water without Tua. And like Waddle's average

9.3 yards per target over his NFL career spanning four seasons. Like that is an incredibly good number. This guy's a really good player and he's ranked too low in ECR. His target share has gone down every season or he's total number of targets has gone down every season of his career he only has one year over a thousand and

15 yards doesn't have a double-digit touchdown season i like wattle too i'm just kind of stating the case of why maybe he's ranked a little bit lower than we think he should be i mean obviously last year was the worst of year's career but as fits points out de bro extenuating circumstances there in terms of the injuries yeah i and and and the other part about this is if people are doing early drafts and whether that's best ball or early redrafts i want people to get experienced exposure to Waddle too because the other part about it is if you're getting you're doing drafts right now depending on whatever format you're in I want to be above consensus because I still think that there's a possibility Tyree Kill is gone so I want people to get exposure to Jalen Waddle because if Tyree Kill is out here

man Waddle is going to go screaming up the ranks like he would be a top 20 like he would be somewhere around where Tyree Kill is currently ranked so people are using our ranks right now in the early part of you know we're saying the summer then I want people to get exposure to him and Waddle as well. Next group of names here from wide receiver 36 to wider receiver 44. Calvin Ridley, Roma Dunes, A Khalil Shakir, Brandon IEU, Kjuan Jennings, Debo Samuel, Jacoby Myers, Jaden Reed, and Stefan Diggs. Fitz, who stands out to you here?

I want to call out Debrough for hating on Jaden Reed. Like, Dibro's barely got him. I don't hate him. Matt LaFleur hates him. Yeah, well, like he kind of forgot about Jane Reed down the stretch last season. But I will point out that in the first 26. regular season games of his career that he played with Jordan Love, Jaden Reed scored 17 touchdowns.

Like that's a full season pace of 11 touchdowns, and that was a season and a half. So, and like it should be noted that includes three touchdown runs, but that's part of the appeal with Reed. I just think, you know, like he's not an anchor player for your team, but as a third or fourth wide receiver, I think you could do worse. Oh, my question about it is,

when would you ever feel comfortable about playing Jaden Reed in your lineup, Fitsy? And my other point about this is- For the first season and a half of his career, that entire time. When he was scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip, and we knew that it was going to come crashing down. I mean, we all talk about regression here. Jaden Reed in 2023 was the wide receiver 43 and expected fantasy points per game, like playing way above his usage and ceiling with touchdowns doing all of that.

The other part about Jane Reed that I have big time worries about. Dude is you are we are we defend are we all like 100% that Savian Williams is not going to threaten his role in that offense as the Dary Belt Debo and do it maybe better than Jane Reed ever did. That's true. He could be the new jet sweep guy for the Packers. He could be the new Jane Reed. He could take his role from him. And that's why like I'm not ruling that out man. Like third round capital looking at the player savion Williams is basically Jane Reed upgrade. Is he not? I know about upgrade man like Savian. has trouble catching the ball. He's bigger. He can do more in the run game and he's just as physical. I don't see how he's not. He's not a route runner. He doesn't catch the ball well. Like he's got a lot to learn. Yeah, I don't know about that. Dude. A lot of scheme touches, bro. Like we talk about it. Like a lot of the Jane Reed uses is he can't beat man coverage. It's a lot of funky usage, man. He had a really good runout. But I think the runout is gone, dude. Like so I. Yeah, I can't.

Yeah, I'm out on Jane Reed, definitively. Who do you guys think finishes higher between the first two names in this group? Calvin Ridley and Roma Dunzae. I think it's an interesting conversation. I think with Dunzae, you can easily paint the picture for having a higher ceiling, a prospect we really liked last year. He's now in year two. We think the offense is just going to be a lot better for everybody in general,

but there are a lot of mouths to fill there, especially coming out of the draft. Calvin Ridley has never in a healthy season finished. He's wide receiver 36 right now in rankings. He's never been outside the top. I think it's 27. in a fully healthy season. He is the clear cut number one target in this offense. He's now playing with the number one overall pick.

Your mileage may vary on where Cam Ward, how he holds up to previous number one overall picks, but it's still the quarterback that went first in the draft, and he's going to be the number one guy, and he's ranked as literally the last wide receiver three. You can get that. That feels too low. I feel confident that a healthy Calvin Ridley

is going to return value, but the ceiling is higher for Odunze. So Fitz, who do you like better between the two? Ridley. I think I'm above consensus on Ridley. I've got him wide receiver 32, and I'm right in line with O'Donzey. I've got him at ECR,

wide receiver 37. Yeah, I mean, I think Cam Ward's going to be really good for Ridley because Cam Ward is an aggressive downfield thrower. Dibrow. This isn't even close. And I made a face when you said that I think Rome has the higher ceiling. I don't think Rome has the higher ceiling at all.

You don't think if he puts it together in year two and is the prospect we thought he was last year? Okay. No, dude, hold up, hold up. Let's, let's back this up. Let's back this, this Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams, hype train back up for a second here. Have we seen Caleb Williams in the NFL to this point support even one, one, one high-end fantasy producer, much less multiple, unless you think Roma Duneze is going to be the clear wide receiver one of this offense. And I don't know how we make that case. But unless we think that, like, okay, then Caleb Williams is going to have to support. two weapons, maybe three. I can't say that at all. Like with any stretch of confidence that Caleb Williams has shown anything in his NFL career to prove that he could support one high-end weapon, much less two. So for me, no, the ceiling is way lower for Roma Dunesay. Like, Calvin Ridley, yes, I agree with Fitsy. Like, I've got him at wide receiver 31 in my rankings right now.

Calvin Ridley's going to have a better year just simply based off if he's not catching freaking passes from Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, dude? Like, easily. He was the wide receiver 28 and expected fantasy points per game. Wide receiver 36 in fantasy points per game last year with dreadful quarterback play. It's going to do nothing but get better. And there's nobody else for Tennessee to catch passes. I think the floor and the ceiling for Calvin Ridley are immensely higher for Roma Dunezay.

I think people are getting way lost in the sauce of hype on Caleb Williams when we haven't seen anything close to substance. saying that he could back up any of that hype at all. I mean, we haven't seen it, but we've only seen one year in a pretty terrible situation with a coaching staff that wasn't even helping him watch film, was doing absolutely nothing to make him better, a terrible offensive line. Like, if you think Ben Johnson, I'm not saying you, but I'm saying if one thinks that Ben Johnson is like this, you know, God's gift to play calling and is this going to be this

great head coach that everybody thought he was for the last few years as a candidate, and he now gets a guy who is really talented and, Caleb Williams. We didn't see it put together in year one. Like, I am not at all writing him off. I think it's fair to say, like, maybe people are getting a little over their skis with it, and that's reasonable.

And I actually agree that Calvin Ridley should be ranked higher than Adunzee, because I'm much more confident in him returning value than O'Dunzee is. But I think if both Ridley and Adunzee hit their best case scenario this year, I do think O'Donze is higher. I think Ridley's higher, man. I think you're just looking at, like, target floor, target share, the fact that he's the number one. and maybe not the number three.

Dude, Roma Dune's a, I mean, we can make cases of, okay, he's the number two option. Would it surprise anybody if he's the number four option

in that passing attack? Well, no, and that's why the floor, I think, is lower than Ridley. But I'm saying ceiling, like it,

because again, like this was a prospect that was like very clean coming. I mean, that also comes back to Caleb Williams, dude, like he was legendaryly bad

as a rookie. Like, it's like, let's not like, min's words here. He was bottom five, bottom 10, and every single,

if it's, efficiency accuracy metric you can find out there. So even expecting a big step forward in his second year, we're hoping he's league average. Anything above that is just wish casting because, I mean, we could talk about the situation for days. Caleb compounded all of those problems and made them exponentially worse.

I think that's right. I'm just not, I'm in no way shape before. Am I writing him off after one bad year in a terrible situation? situation. Fitz, what do you think about this situation? Yeah, I'm a little more willing to give him a mulligan. Granted, like, I'm not presuming year-two success for him, but, like, the offensive line has been dramatically upgraded. Ben Johnson is a much better play caller than Shane Waldron. So, like, I'm trying to be optimistic. But, like, I agree, though, I have concerns about Romo Dunzee's target outlook with this team. Like, what if Luther Burton is the new Ammonrae St.

Brown for Ben Johnson? What if Colston Loveland's the number two in the passing attack? What if DJ Moore just runs away as the clear number one and everybody else just is picking scraps? Well, and again, not to belabor the point. These are all reasons why I think the floor I totally agree with you is lower in a dunes day and why I think it's fair to rank him where he is. I'm just saying the upside scenario I think is higher than you're saying. But we don't need to keep belaboring that point.

The last group of names here, Ricky Pearsall, Josh Downs, Cooper Cup, Michael Pittman Jr., Darnel Mooney, and Christian Kirk. I want to ask with Pearsall, and we didn't really talk about Brandon and I, you could John Jennings kind of in the last tier, but these three 49ers receivers are ranked 39, 40, and now Pearsall at 45. Is this going to be kind of a tricky situation to decide who's the right guy to target, or Fitz, is it easy for you to say which of those three at cost you're most interested in going after?

It's funny. Pearsall is the lowest by ECR, and Debrough and I both have him as our highest ranked 49er. Heck yes. Dbrose is super high on him. Dbrose got him as like a mid-range. wide receiver three. I've got them as a high wide receiver four. In fact, thank you, Worm, for reminding me to, for bringing up the 49ers receivers. And I do have to give Debrough a little grief. Like, Debrough, the way you have these 49er receiver rank, receivers ranked, it's like you've,

you've got some sort of, what was the HBO show, the leftovers where they had the rapture type event where all of a sudden five percent of the Earth's population disappears. It looks like you're ranking the 49ers receivers as if George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey have disappeared off the face of the earth that are not going to catch any passes for the Niners this year. I mean, I've got I've got Pierceall as wide receiver 28. I've got Jennings as 36 and Brandon Ayuk is 41. I don't think I'm there with that. Like, that's not, I'm not stepping forward and saying all three of these guys are top 20s.

I do think like unless McCaffrey and or Kittle missed significant time, like one of these, three guys is going to be a colossal disappointment. And I agree with that. I tend to think it's going to be Ayuk. He's got a major injury to come back from. And like he had the one great season where everyone fell in love with him. Like I think he's a good player, but also like he was just way over his skis with efficiency. Like his yards per route run and yards per target metric were like unsustainably good during that 1,300 yard season. So I don't disagree with you. I've got him as my lowest 49ers wide receiver at wide receiver 41, man. I think this is going to be Ricky Pierce all show.

I've got him ranked the highest out of those guys. I mean, Brandon Ayut coming off of the devastating injury, when does he ramp up, what does that look like, what is his effectiveness? And then while Joanne Jennings was really good last year, we're also talking about a wide receiver that's been buried on the depth chart. He's entering his age 27 season. So it's like, I'm not discounting like what he showed last year. that is what you know what's putting him ranked where I have him ranked but also dude can we not

talk about like Ricky Pearsall got an audition as the leader of this passing attack last year to be to end the season and he flourished he killed like in the final I mean he crushed it dude in the final two games of the season he was wide receiver seven wide receiver 14 he saw almost a 22 percent target share he had over a 30 percent first read share he was producing 2.84 yards per route run. He's a former first round pick who had his rookie season derailed, derailed by off-field stuff and injuries and stuff. So like, yes, I want to be above consensus and over the moon on a former first round

pick that showed at the tail end of last year when San Francisco said, we're going to give you an audition as the number one guy. Can you be that guy? And he answered the bell. I know we're going to get, we're going to get. We're going to get crushed for like overdoing it on a small sample size. But like, yeah, it was a very convincing two game sample. It's a small sample size until it's not a small sample size.

I would rather be ahead of the curve on a player and be aggressive on a player. And people are like, when we turn over the cards for the 2025 season, all of us saying, why did we rank Ricky Pearson? He's a former first round player. The team made moves in the offseason to say we believe in this guy. gave him an audition. I would rather be above consensus on a player like that than be left holding water saying,

oh man, but I mean, I was in a Joanne Jennings. I mean, come on. Like, that's not the way that I want to play this. Any other names quickly before you get out of here that stand out in this grouping?

Josh Downs, Cooper Cup, Michael Pittman Jr. Darno Mooney, Christian Kirk. That rounds out the top 50. Either of you. Christian Kirk. He's going too low.

I think it's the injury discount. But when we saw him healthy last year, and I know it's been varying degrees of health over the last few years. He was still crushing an deficiency metrics. And I feel like with the supporting cast that's around C.J. Stroud this year, I think he's going to have a bounce back. And we were all, I emphatically remember this, boys. We were all talking about last year, which Texans wide receiver do we want to draft this year?

And now we get to play the same game except the Texans are coming off a down year with C.J. Stroud and the only wide receiver in Houston that you're having to pay up for is Nico Collins. Yeah, count me in massively on Christian Kirk and a player that's not even on this list. Jaden Higgins, both of those guys I want to be at or above consensus on this year because we're not having to pay for it. Any final thoughts, Fitz? I'm definitely not paying for Christian Kirk. I totally disagree.

I've got him at wide receiver 60. D. I just like, it's too, it's too messy with like Higgins, Noel and Kirk. And I know you don't think CJ's drought is going to have a bounceback season? Well, I do, but that offensive line is still trash. I do worry about his time to throw. Like, that's going to be an issue. And the Houston defense is really good.

So it's not like they're going to have to play shootouts every week. I just like it's a we know Nico is going to get his in that target picture. I just don't know what like how the leftovers are going to be sorted out from among the Iowa state rookies and Christian Kirk. And then just like, I don't have any major beef with where Downs is going, but like, it is Jamison Crowder syndrome. Everyone likes the small slot receiver archetype. And like I tend to think those guys are overvalued. And I just don't know.

Like I worry that Tyler Warren is going to usurp a lot of what Josh Downs does with the short area targets. I'm pretty much with consensus and with you here, Fitsy. Like I've got Downs at wide receiver 49 and Pittman and wide receiver 50. I just again going back to pieces and parts of offenses that we want to buy into offensive ecosystems. Do the cults feel like that type of team? No. Not for me. And Downs is good at what he does, but it's a low ceiling.

Yeah. All right, we'll go ahead and wrap up there. We went a little long, but obviously we're hitting on a ton of names today. So I hope everybody enjoyed that. For Debrough and Fitz, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.

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