The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - Would You Rather: Which Fantasy Football Players Would You Take in 2025? (Ep. 1590)

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Starting point is 00:00:30 you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Who would you rather? That is always the biggest fantasy football question. You're in the draft room. Which guy between this one and that one? We are going to answer that question today.

Starting point is 00:00:46 Right here on the Fantasy Pro's football podcast, I am Chris Welsh, and I got two fantastic guests. What we're going to be doing, as I've always called them, player debates, players of similar general range, maybe upside versus floor. There's so many different ways to discuss it. We're going running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, tight-ins. We're even going to do some vets versus rookies. And we have got, of course, my podcast cohort during the football season, Andrew Erickson here, and someone I've never got to hang out with,

Starting point is 00:01:15 but we became best friends behind the scenes and all of our similarities. It's Rich Rebar. Lord Reebore. Rich, what's up, man? It was great to meet you backstage, and I'm very excited to finally get to... I mean, I enjoyed talking about all of our geeky nerd comic book stuff, but it'll be good to talk about some other geeky, nerd fantasy football stuff.

Starting point is 00:01:33 The Venn diagram is very strong if you dip into these waters and talk to people. You know, are you, do you like this one thing that's super nerdy? I bet you like these other things as well. So we're best friends now, you know, the last half hour of hanging out. So I can't wait to come hang out with you, get our kids together and, you know, watch some X-Men 97. Our mutual named children as well. That's the other thing we figured out.

Starting point is 00:01:54 And we got to give a little shout at behind the scenes things to our poor, our poor dude, Jake Seeley, the all-in kid who is going to be joining us here. chaos arose. But Andrew Erickson, he did the call. He stepped up when it was needed. And what a great person we can have for the player debates, Erickson. You're going to bring it. You're going to bring it. Again, I was talking behind the scenes with you guys. If you're not ready to hop on a show, five minutes warning to talk about Fannie's football in June, what are you doing? Like, you got to be ready to go. And I also brought the graphic T. So even though there is no Jake Seeley, there's another graphic T being represented here. So LFG, baby. Is that a presidential dab? Is that like, why? Washington dad? The Patriots. A Patriots dab. Remember once upon a time Cam Newton was on the New England Patriots as the quarterback? A season that I cannot wait to tell my children about that. That actually happened. Very memorable season, exactly. I'm not sure what those debates would have been back then, but we've got some good ones. So again, who would you rather big fantasy football player debates of 2025 with lots of positional stuff? We're going to be using ECR. So just want to remind everybody, Fantasy Pro's ranks, it's fantastic because you can go in and check whether it's, you know, PPR, half PPR,

Starting point is 00:03:01 These are going to be, at least the ECRs I'm going to give you. This is based on half PPR, just a nice middle ground. But you can go through that. You can also check each individual analyst. You can make groupings or the ECR itself, the expert consensus ranks, is everybody. It's a big old collection of all the ranks, averaging it out. That's what we're going to be using. That's what I'm going to be citing.

Starting point is 00:03:20 You guys can find the ranks over at fantasy pros.com slash rankings today. You can peruse. You can have fun, and you can create your own player debates, and you can bring it out into the ether and let everybody vote on it and talk about it. But these are the ones we have today. So gentlemen, let's not waste any more time. Let's jump right into it. We're going to jump over to running backs.

Starting point is 00:03:38 And we're going to be on the high end here. And I think this is actually a really, really good one. And this one actually took place in our fantasy pros world where we're doing a draft. Some of the analysts are doing it with some listeners. And Ryan Wormley had to hit me up and said, hey, you're on the clock. I, with the eighth pick, took Ashton Genty. And he said, oh, man, I almost took him. but I just decided Jamir Gibbs might have like a little bit more of that floor,

Starting point is 00:04:05 but the Gentie upside really gets me. Well, guess what, gentlemen, there is our debate. Jamir Gibbs, ECRRB3 versus Ashton Genty, who is RB5, but we have seen some hot takes on this channel, and we've obviously seen that there is a lot, a lot of people that want to just jump in and think he has a potential to be the RV1 for this year. So, Rich, let's start with you. Who would you rather, in the first,

Starting point is 00:04:30 round running back to bait. Jamir Gibbs or Ashton Genty. I will say all the ones you put on the sheet, this was the one that kind of gave me the most pause. Like, you know, when you see the names and the other ones that will go through, I kind of had a pretty definitive like, yeah, this, this guy. But this one, and I think it's just because they're two first round picks, right? Like, you could see the upside angle for both. I do think that I would break the tie or semi-tie with Jamir Gibbs just being on an offense, I believe in more. And you can also even poke some holes in that with no, no Ben Johnson, some potential. team regression. Frank Ragnow just retiring as well. But we have seen a fleeting sample of Jemir Gibbs

Starting point is 00:05:07 without David Montgomery be the best player in all fantasy football. I mean, he has had a high floor. He's 16.9 PPR points per game with David Montgomery playing and then 27.4 PPR points their game with David Montgomery off the field. He's finished RV8 and RB2 and points per game. It's really easy to make the case for Janty, though. Like, you know, one of the best cleanest running back prospects going to a Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly offense, right? Like I think the only things they're kind of really pulled down for them is that maybe the Raiders are a worst team. They definitely have a more questionable offensive line, even with the Ragnow retirement

Starting point is 00:05:41 factored in. And the Raiders on our end do have our 24th ranked run schedule. But these running backs that have been first round fantasy picks have largely been pretty safe picks. I mean, Jemir Gibbs was the RB 12 most recently. Bejan Robinson at same year in 2023, both those guys finished top 10 in overall scoring. Najee Harris was a top five pick, you know, it was a top five finish and was an RB one. Really only Clyde Edwards-Alaire is like the only brick in like this range of like the past decade.

Starting point is 00:06:09 Because you had Sequin, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Furnett, Ezekiel Elliott, and the Ghost of Trent Richardson. All those guys finished as top 10 running backs and were taken as RB ones, the rookie years as well. So this one was tight. I still kind of just give minor edges to Gibbs. So, Erickson, do you think this one is as tight or do you think it's a bigger window? because the Gibbs argument, like, is laid out right there. At the end of the day, there's another running back there. It's a big powerful offense.

Starting point is 00:06:35 We already know who Gibbs is versus Gentie, who sky high potential, and maybe he gets all the usage and pulls out, you know, like the comparisons of Sequin rookie year evaluations are kind of out there. What do you think? Obviously, the ECR's a little bit different, and there's a running back in between both of these guys. But when push comes to shove, who would you rather, Jentee or Gibbs? It's still Gibbs for me.

Starting point is 00:06:57 He is my RB2. Gentie as my RB3, so I do think that it is close. And I think that when you're looking at it from a volume projection, yeah, Gentie should touch the ball more times than Gibbs. And then that gives him a path where he can outscore Jimere Gibbs. But I go back to offense environment, even if the Lions take a step back, is it still, are the Raiders going to now lap them, essentially? Like, the Raiders are the offense, we expect to be better, but is it going to be good enough

Starting point is 00:07:21 for them then taking over the lines who have basically been a top five offense the last two seasons? and I always think back to, you know, what's the cheat code with fantasy running backs? It's pass catching. It's receiving. We know Jemir Gibbs is an elite receiver out of the back field. We're hoping that Gentie can be that. What he did his sophomore year, he was used a lot more in the passing game. Last year, not as much.

Starting point is 00:07:42 What is it going to look like in this Chip Kelly offense? Are they going to feed him a ton of targets? Gino Smith last year. They threw the ball a lot. We saw Ken Walker catch more passes. But the two years before that, there really wasn't a lot of running back target. So I think that's still more of a projection, what he's going to be. can be used like in the passing game. I'm optimistic that he'll see a role, but to the extent that

Starting point is 00:08:00 it will be better than Gibbs, I'm not as bullish on. And the fact that he turns into Delaney and Tomlinson, if Dave Montgomery misses any time, like, that's up, that's upside. Like the single highest scoring player at the position where Gentile, yes, the volume should be there, but he still needs to make the jump to the NFL, steeper competition. And I think from a starting perspective, I expect Gibbs to, you know, hit the ground running. And two, if, if this line's off, does regress and Jared Goff kind of goes back to, you know, sometimes what we saw him with the Rams. I feel like he's just going to look for Gibbs. He's going to like find his checkdown option. I think Gibbs can really eat as a receiver. So I do think it's close. I'm definitely open to both

Starting point is 00:08:39 guys. That's why I have them both inside my top three, but I'm going to lean Gibbs as well. I'm going to do this just really quick. We don't have to get into crazy analysis. But now I'm just quickly add a third name and just rank these players. Those two and Sequin Barkley. And Erickson, let's start with you. Gibbs, Gentie, Sequin, Barclay. That's what I wanted to hear. That's all I was going for. Rich, what do you think?

Starting point is 00:09:00 We had Sequin Barclay in there. How does that list look? Yeah, Sequin is a little tricky. Obviously, you're going to see a lot of reports about the touch count that he had last year and the fall off that players with that many touches have. And, you know, it's not necessarily that Sequin had a lot of touches. He's a running back. The next touch is always the one that matters, right?

Starting point is 00:09:17 It's not necessarily the 4802 he had the season prior. It's the next touch. I do think the Eagles are going to throw more. And the one thing about Sequin that happened last year that I don't think a lot of people realize is that he had the worst receiving usage of his career, which we thought was going to be in the range of outcomes with Jalen Hertz. And then the tush push was still a factor for him. So if you're not housing 50-yard touchdown runs at the same rate you were last year, which he did at a greater rate than anyone's ever done, and literally since Jim Brown. So like if you just have some regression in that long touchdown dependence and you're not catching passes and you're not scoring touchdowns, those eventually pull down your old. overall production from a fantasy stance.

Starting point is 00:09:56 Even if Jayante doesn't catch 70 passes, I think we have a pretty clean line where he's going to catch like 30 plus, right? And like that's still a question with Seekwon in these full PPR formats. I think the format matters as well, too, if you're kind of trying to break some ties to with those guys. Because I do you think the other guys

Starting point is 00:10:11 are just going to catch more passes than Seekwan. So was Barkley third on that list for you too? Yeah, I think so just the way we play it, right? Like we don't know over about the last time the RB1 repeated was Priest Holmes. in 2002, 2003. Like, it just, like, it doesn't happen. Chasing last year's RB1 very rarely works out.

Starting point is 00:10:32 All right. Well, we'll chase a former RB1. And if I'm here, you know, I'm going to have to bring up this guy. But I think this is a good debate, Erickson. Don't you give me that smirk? You tell me this is a good one. Bucky Irving versus Christian McCaffrey. Christian McCaffrey comes in at RB7,

Starting point is 00:10:47 polarizing with injuries. Kind of feels like you love the value and you love them or big no thanks. versus Bucky Irving, who has been phenomenal. He is ECRRB 10, so he is lower as McCaffrey is ECRRB 7. But, you know, the hype on Bucky Irving, where you want to get him. I don't know where you, it kind of, I guess, depends on where you feel on Rashad White as well. There's a little bit of a difference, obviously, in ECR, but it does feel like you've got to be in one direction or the other with Christian McCaffrey. Not a lot of people sitting on the fence.

Starting point is 00:11:18 So, Rich, do you sit on the fence, or is it Bucky or Christian? who would you rather in 2025? No, I'm not on the fence at Christian McCaffrey. I still believe he's a play to win pick. I think a lot of people are treating him as just a play not to lose a void. But this is a player that we've seen is in an offensive environment where he's still, he's only going to be 29. Like he's not dead.

Starting point is 00:11:40 Granted, there's a risk for his reward factor because he has missed double digit games in three of his seasons. But any season he's ever finished, he's been the RB1 or the RB2 in points per game. And he's in a system that still is, they're pushing. The 49ers haven't given up on their window. Like, they're still going to try to win games, and they're going to maximize Christian McCaffrey, I believe. And you look at the games he played last year and the two games he played at Brock Purdy,

Starting point is 00:12:03 90% of the backfield touches, 20% of the target, still went over 100 yards from scrimmage in both of those games. The 49ers are a team, I believe, are just collectively mispriced this year. Everything went wrong for them last year. And I think it's getting overfactored into all the price point for all of these guys. I mean, including, you know, like not only was Brandon Huk, Dibo, Samuel, Juan Jennings, Ricky Fursall, George Kittal, and Christian Paffrey, all missed multiple games. Trent Williams also missed seven games.

Starting point is 00:12:27 It was a collective issue. And even with all that happening, they were second in the NFL and plays with 25 plus yards. They were fourth and expected touchdowns. They have by far our easiest schedule, passing schedule and rushing schedule this year. They're projected to be the seventh highest scoring team in the NFL. I still think Christian McCaffrey still has at least one more ride in the sunset while he's, you know, active in playing. I get that that's a question mark, but I still want to play to win. If you're going to give him at the one-two turn now, I feel like that's just really too tempting to pass up.

Starting point is 00:12:58 ECR is saying the same thing. It's agreeing with you? Erickson, do you agree? Who would you rather? Bucky Irving or Christian McCaffrey in 2025? This is probably assuming I'm not going to put the caveats of like where they're going because these are all pretty close. But, you know, this is probably an early second round pick that you're putting into one of these two players. Which one are you going with?

Starting point is 00:13:18 I'm going with Chris McAfree. I don't have the biases or recency bias because I didn't draft him last year. So I don't feel bad about, okay, well, now I'll draft him this year because now he's discounted because the upside case for him is he scores more points when he's healthy than any other player on the field. Shooting for that maximum upside, I think is what we see when Christian McCaffrey is healthy. And I think Rich laid out a great point with the 49ers overall. You want to buy this offense. You want to buy all the discounted piece after they all got hurt last year. Their defense, I think has major question marks.

Starting point is 00:13:48 He laid out the schedule. I think they're slated to just throw a ton of touchdowns, both rushing, receiving. McCaffrey's going to play a big role in that. So for me, I think it's going to be McCaffrey. And then on the Bucky side, again, we have another new office coordinator, right? You know, what does a split work like with Rashad White? I have less question marks about McCaffrey is healthy.

Starting point is 00:14:08 He's in my lineup. Like, that's all it takes. Like, that's the only question mark that I have to answer. So he's the pick for me. Yeah. And the thing with Bucky, too, is, and this might not happen to Bucky, but the year two running back that has been elevated to like the second round, fringe wider seat or fringe running back one has been like an archetype of player

Starting point is 00:14:28 that has burned us like pretty repeatedly in fantasy football. I don't want to see it. Bucky Irving was so good last year. But all these other guys were too. You go down the list. These guys that weren't drafted with high draft capital had a small sample of like really hyper efficiency, Andre Ellington, Miles Sanders, Jeremy Hill, Jeremy Lang for Thomas Rawls, James Robinson.

Starting point is 00:14:48 These guys were all pushed in that year two up into that bucket. And like, we got torched on those guys. All right. Now I'm going to do this one more time. One little side one. Let me throw this, especially when we have, you guys both agree, because I have to be the deciding factor if we have disagreement, which God knows, we'll have any disagreement here.

Starting point is 00:15:07 But when we get the other guy and you guys both moved quick to Christian McCaffrey, let me just throw this to you. Does anything change? Erickson, let's start with you. Again, you don't have to get into big break. breakdowns, just a quick one. Let's now go Bucky Irving versus Chase Brown. Do we have a change?

Starting point is 00:15:22 I will take Bucky Irving there. Okay. So I just know you're a Chase guy. I didn't know if that would push it. And we're agreeing, Rich? Yeah, I also, I mean, there I'm literally back to back. So, you know, but it's, yeah, Bucky Irving was just a little bit better of a player than Chase Brown was last year.

Starting point is 00:15:38 Chase Brown was all volume. That's true. All right. Let's move into like an RB2 range here for our third of the running backs. And this is going to be a nice rookie versus vet situation. We actually have some later that are specific. This one would have probably followed into it. But these are both RB2s. In fact, this is RB20 and RB21 on ECR. So right next to each other, we've mentioned one of these guys already, RB20, David Montgomery. Touchdown, equity, offense, you love it. But we also mentioned

Starting point is 00:16:05 Jamir Gibbs, who's that first round pick. We are going to pair him against a Marion Hampton with the Chargers. Chargers bring in Najee Harris, maybe questions. A lot of people. tell you don't worry about any of the rbs that come in these veteran rbs that come into effect any of these rookies these guys are next to each other should it be that way who would you rather rich american hampton or david montgomery this one is really rough because i would rather have james connor than both these guys and he's drafted after them um but i mean it's kind of because it's kind of a case of two different things right like you're looking at david montgomery and you know you're getting like that that touchdown based floor we haven't really seen him

Starting point is 00:16:45 You play a lot of games without Jemir Gibbs. There was a two-game sample. You know, Gibbs' rookie year. And then Montgomery got banged up in the second game of that. So we haven't really seen, like, him have like that Gibbsian, like, could be Ladeneon Thomas. Like, you know, Erickson said earlier, like, that doesn't really exist in the range of outcomes from Montgomery.

Starting point is 00:17:03 He gets a spike, but he doesn't turn to like this world beating entity. Marion Hampton has to deal with Najee Harris. And I get like, Naji Harris, like, on paper. You guys are like, this dude's not that much of a threat. Naji Harris, I promise you as a dude that coaches love. Like this is like the type of running back that coaches love because he doesn't do anything bad. He doesn't do anything great, but he doesn't like lose you games either. And like coaches love that type of stuff.

Starting point is 00:17:26 And I promise you that Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh are going to love a dude like that. It's why they went out and got him. So, you know, it's a really tough kind of call here to say like, is Hampton going to be a guy that's in a timeshare? The whole way is a rookie? Or does the draft capital say like, hey, there's a really. a runway for him to just take over Najee Harris, who's only on a one-year contract, and then you're getting this back half of the year, RB1. That range of outcomes, I think, would lead me to swing on Hampton more.

Starting point is 00:17:53 But these are two guys that I don't really draft very often, because, again, I have a running backs below them that is, it wasn't part of the equation. Erickson, you got a chance. Is this going to be a clean sweep of agreement across the board? Are you going to push against Amerihanhampton versus David Montgomery? Who would you rather in 2025, my friend? Well, I agree with, so I can take James Connor over both these guys. You cannot take James Connor out of here.

Starting point is 00:18:18 I also have it ranked the exact same way where Connor is above both of these players. I think for me, it's the rookie. When in doubt, take a shot on one of these rookie running backs. We know this class is absolutely stacked and maybe the planet's thrown a line in week one or week two for Amerian Hampton. But who's to say it's going to be the perfect runout for Dave Montgomery? It's been the perfect runout for Dave Montgomery the last two seasons where he's just been a touchdown machine. if the lines regressing on offense hurts anybody the most,

Starting point is 00:18:44 I think it would probably be Montgomery, because if they go from a top three-scoring team to then, they're now 10th in terms of total points scored. Well, who's that going to hurt? Probably the guy that's the most touchdown dependent of the main playmakers, which is a Dave Montgomery. We know that Gibbs is really the primary pass catcher. We know that Gibbs is the one that's used and can make play.

Starting point is 00:19:02 He can create his own red zone opportunities, essentially, because of how explosive is. Dave Montgomery doesn't necessarily offer that. So if the lines are playing from behind, is Montgomery in the game? We don't know. So I think for me, I'd rather take the swing on Omerian Hampton. And Welsh, I'm always thinking about projecting ahead of the season when you have these guys on your roster, you know, in redraft, you're thinking about trades. Who's going to have more trade value? Just every single, Hampton, every single week, people are going to be trying to get Hampton from you

Starting point is 00:19:29 because if he starts out slow, whereas Dave Montgomery, I don't necessarily see where he's going to gain value as the season progresses. Hampton could do nothing for the first month and his value could still hold because we know in the end, rookies usually win out. So I think we're all looking at it from all different facets. It's even good Hampton is just the better pick. And really, it's unless you really need frontline production,

Starting point is 00:19:50 I guess Montgomery would be the pick. But at the same time, that's why James Connor is a great pick here because he's the guy that can deliver a ton of front line production, you know, before he suffers an injury. Though I would say, like, similar to what you said before with Gibbs, if Gibbs were to miss time, Montgomery's a monster, like, because he is the guy.

Starting point is 00:20:07 So in the same vein of giving the little extra credit to Gibbs, like Montgomery would deserve that. But if you're keeping stats here, that of the running backs, that's two of the three favorites in ECR that were in agreement. This is the first one where you guys are taking the ECR lower players. So we've got a Marion Hampton over Montgomery. That is the first lower ECR guy over. The other two are there.

Starting point is 00:20:31 You guys listening and watching, comment below. And you can tell us who would you rather when you do so? it might even get you some free stuff on those RBs. Giving away a wide receiver giveaway because this month you got a chance to win a sign George Pickin' Steelers jersey. It's going out of business sale with the Cowboys now, but you can get that Steelers George Pickin jersey for free, courtesy of our friends over at pristineauction.com.

Starting point is 00:20:55 All you've got to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pro's YouTube channel right now, super easy. Drop a comment below on any video, and that's it. And I just gave you guys the suggestion. You guys go and put in who you like in those. RB debates and bam, you guys are in. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make sure to turn on notifications so you can check out the new videos and you can potentially claim your prize of the George Pickens' autograph jersey. Gentlemen, let's move to the wide receivers. We've got kind of similar. It's like a very top-in wide receiver debate. We've got that wide

Starting point is 00:21:28 receiver round two-ish debate and then we're going a little bit deeper. So let's start at the top end. I think we've even had this conversation before. Wide Receiver 8 versus wide receiver 7, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr. I think I even saw a report today. Brian Thomas landed wrong at a practice or whatever. We're in that range. We're like any of these like practices, one little thing can happen.

Starting point is 00:21:50 There was a quarterback we might have discussed that we didn't because we got new news. But this one is Brian Thomas, Nico Collins. They are next to each other in ECR. So Rich, take it away. Which wide receiver would you rather have? it's still the chalk the player ahead here in Nico Collins. I mean, Nico Collins was going to contend to be the wide receiver one last year for a stretch of the season. Then he picked up that hamstring injury literally on what, a 65-yard touchdown that he caught, like popped a wheel.

Starting point is 00:22:18 And then after week 11, you know, just wasn't the same player when he came back from injury. However, he still was third among all receivers and yards per out run. If you take the top 10 yards per out run seasons of the past two years, there's only two players that appear on the list from both seasons. And it's Pooka Nakua and Nico Collins. In the games he played, he had 40% of the team targets in the red zone, 58% of the end zone targets. The money looks.

Starting point is 00:22:44 Both those are top five rates. I still just have a little more confidence in his offensive infrastructure. And remember, like, the Texans hired a guy from the McVeigh tree and Nick Kaylee to be the offensive coordinator. Like, what if Nico Collins starts to get some of that free square stuff that we've seen wide receiver ones and that offensive system get two as well. I still, I have no problem with Brian Thomas Jr. And I would love to have Brian Thomas Jr.

Starting point is 00:23:07 A bunch of fantasy teams this year. But if you're making me choose, I'm choosing Nico Collins. When I may have also said it weird, by the way, because Nico is a spot below Brian Thomas. Oh, is he? I assumed he was the chalk the head of him. No, Brian Thomas is number seven on ECR. Nico Collins is number eight.

Starting point is 00:23:23 Andrew Erickson, could this be the first disagreement between both of you very smart gentlemen. No, no, it won't be. And that definitely sounds weird for me because I was really the Brian Thomas Jr. guy last, I mean, I had the lead all rookies and receiving yards. The 18 to one bet we hit that last year with Brian Thomas Jr. So it feels weird to be going against him here. But Nico Collins is just so clearly the alpha wide receiver in this Texans offense. And when he's been healthy the last two years, he's top five in the NFL and receiving yards per game. receiving yards per game. Again, we have so many of these Vance metrics when it's trying to do projecting fantasy points

Starting point is 00:24:01 at the simplest numbers. It's just how many yards does this guy get? Like, that's the best projector of future fantasy production. And Nico Collins checks off all the boxes. So you look at his target competition compared to last year. Last year, it was an ascending tank dell and an established Savon Diggs. Now it's Christian Kirk on his third team and he can never stay healthy in the second half of seasons and two rookie wide receivers that they drafted.

Starting point is 00:24:25 He's just so slated. If this Texans offense just gets back to where they were with C.J. Stroud as a rookie, Nico Collins has been going back to 1,500 receiving yards, 15 plus receiving touchdowns. And as much as I love Brian Thomas Jr., there's just more question marks about what his role will look like. Not to say that he's not going to be heavily involved, but it's still a new offense. He didn't break out last year with Trevor Lawrence. It was a different quarterback last year. And now you add a really talented player and Travis Hunter into the equation who really wasn't a factor.

Starting point is 00:24:54 there really wasn't another number two with Brian Thomas Jr. last year. And we've seen with Brian Thomas Jr. where he really opens things up for other receivers to potentially eat, just like at LSU. Malique Neighbors was the guy that was getting all the receptions, whereas he was ripping off all the big plays. So it's enough. I can see enough where I give the slight edge to Nico, but I have them ranked back to back. And again, I would love both of them on my team.

Starting point is 00:25:18 Yeah, and I'm looking here too. If you go on to Fantasy Pros on the ranks, Fantasypros.com slash rankings, you can also click into the player and you can also see like the best and the worst individual ranks and you can see all the rankers. So when you're looking at both of these guys, Brian Thomas does not have a rank above three. So there are, there's only actually two people that have Brian Thomas as wide receiver number three this season and then it keeps going down. By the way, one of them, Derek Brown, D. Brough, or boy, not here. He has him as the wide receiver three. Nico Collins has two people ranking him is the number two overall wide receiver and then a handful that have him at three,

Starting point is 00:25:57 including Andrew Erickson, who has him at three. So just an interesting thing that you've got a higher high-end sentiment on Nico Collins over Brian Thomas right now in the ranks, yet Brian Thomas is ranked higher, which is, you know, so it ends up like leveling itself out and Brian Thomas ends up being the top guy here, but you guys are both going with one below. So Nico Collins wins that. Who would you rather? Next up. I personally really like this one. At this rate, you guys might just continuously agree, and maybe it won't be as good. But I thought this was a fun one.

Starting point is 00:26:28 Drake London, who is wide receiver 10 on half point ECR here versus Ladd McConkey. And I understand maybe full point might change this a little bit, but Ladd was a monster. He is wide receiver 12. These are both wide receiver ones in the top 12 range. So Rich, Drake London, Ladd McConkey, who do you want? This was the first one I actually don't have particularly close. like my own individual stuff. I mean, I am a volume forward player.

Starting point is 00:26:56 I mean, Drake London had 45 more targets than Ladd McConkey last year. And I think some people are taking away some of the back half signal from the chargers in the wrong direction. You know, the charges are the front half of the year. They weren't very pass heavy. They were giving us that hardball Roman offense. But their running backs were terrible. They couldn't run the ball at all.

Starting point is 00:27:15 And they started to throw more. And there's a clear, clear line where Ladd McConkey and Justin Herbert started to take off fantasy. And I would love for that to be something that we can count on just being static. But when you look at every move that the Chargers made in conjunction with the way their season ended. Remember, the Chargers season ended with their quarterback throwing four interceptions and their running backs averaging under three yards per carry. That's not the way Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman want to play football. And this season, what do they do when offseason opens? They sign Mackay Beckton, a run grading guard. They get Najee Harrison and they use a first round pick

Starting point is 00:27:50 in Amarion Hampton. Like, they still scream to me, like, they haven't shedded their skin. Like, this is still a team that has potential volume issues from a passing stance. Whereas the Atlanta Falcons, I know they're going to be pressed and they're going to be pressed to throw the football. And you look at, especially like the Falcon schedule. Like, they open with teams that, like, they have to score points. They open against the bucks, the Vikings, the Panthers, who usually say the Panthers,

Starting point is 00:28:13 but the last time we saw these teams play, they played a 60-point bonanza, the commanders, the Bills, the 49ers, the Dolphins, the Patriots. The Patriots who could be sneaky upside. They get the Bucks, the Cardinals, and the Rams, and the fantasy playoffs. Like the Falcons are going to have to score points. Their defense might not be good. And Drake London, I think as like Loki and I know I'm saying this in the fantasy pros podcast and Dbro's not here. Like I think he's drawing live to be the PPR wide receiver won this season, Drake London is.

Starting point is 00:28:41 I mean, we saw him get the Zach Robinson bump in terms of slot usage that got him free squares. And then when Michael Pennix took over, he started them to blend those short. targets with targets that come with upside. His ad went out. Michael Pennix pushed the ball outside the numbers and down the field. He was an absolute unit when Michael Pennix took over. It was only a three-game sample. But then top down to matter who the quarterback was, Drake London had 60% of the team's end

Starting point is 00:29:06 zone targets. Like this guy, like Zach Robinson knew the assignment to get Drake London in the football. I don't think this one is particularly close. I love Ladd-McConkie, I think he's got a tremendous career in Dynasty. I love Land-McConkey. I think Drake London torches him in fantasy football this year. So this one is actually going to be fun in a completely different way here. So first off, I already know Erickson's answer.

Starting point is 00:29:28 The reason I know Erickson's answer is because he is the highest individual ranker on all the fantasy pros on one of these wide receivers. So I already know what it is. I'm going to give you another little, I'm tipping my hand here also. Weird thing, Ladd-McConkie's actually moved up since I put this together yesterday. He is now wide receiver 11, I just noticed. So these guys are same tier on ECR. They are next to each other.

Starting point is 00:29:54 Rich says, this ain't close. Erickson, you're going to agree. I don't think it's close either. I think it's clearly Drake London. And I'm glad that Rich called him a unit because that's exactly what he is. And I'm co-signing the live for wide receiver one overall finish. And I don't really know if I have anything else to add. Because you hit on all the points that I was going to bring to the table.

Starting point is 00:30:14 The only thing I would add again, going into the high value opportunities that Drake London has seen through three years he leads the NFL at wide receiver in terms of red zone target rate. Whenever he's in the red zone, he's been peppered with targets. And the last six wide receiver won overall finishers all led the NFL and red zone targets per game. And last year he was, I believe, inside the top five in terms of total red zone targets. And that's been with multiple quarterbacks. So I love Drake London this year. I think that he is just an auto pick in the second round. And I wouldn't even besweigh someone from taking him at the end of round one. Michael Pennex threw nine passes into the end zone last year, and six of them were to Drake London.

Starting point is 00:30:53 I mean, if he gets plenty of those opportunities, London's going to thrive. Ifs and butts were candy and nuts, though, we'd all have a Merry Christmas. And that's always a Falcons conversation we could have. But I would love to know in the comments, do you guys agree that this one is so wildly off base, that it is so in favor of Drake London because, you know, this also might be telling us. They say no. Rankers are saying, no, this is very close. not only same tier, but they are next to each other.

Starting point is 00:31:19 But the other thing that would be really interesting about this, does anybody think there's a chance that Ladd could be higher than Drake London? And is this a maybe future forecast if you guys come back on Fantasy Pros in a month or two in heavy draft season, is Drake London going to be a lot higher? Is this only a few people that are locking in? As ranks continue to come in and people do more research, could we see Drake London pushing guys like A.J. Brown, who's a tier higher? Nico Collins and Brian Thomas we just talked about.

Starting point is 00:31:48 Interesting conversation, but do you guys agree that it is this far apart? All right. Last one on the wide receivers. We're moving down a little bit. We are floating somewhere between the wide receiver two, wide receiver three range. And this one's kind of a mixed bag. I think this actually might be the biggest rank differentials between any guys we're going to talk about. And that might create you guys both being like, oh, it's clearly the high guy.

Starting point is 00:32:11 But part of this is about Xavier Worthy, who is wide receiver. receiver 27 on ECR, who I think Erickson, we've done shows where we've talked about like, hey, Rishie Rice is fun, but at the end of the day, like, Xavier Worthy is going to be the guy. He proved himself to be the guy, except we jokingly talk about Xavier Worthy and we say, well, he was in the Rishie Rice role. Well, Rishie Rice is back and potentially could take his role back. But he is lower than DJ Moore, who comes in at ECR20. So this is a big difference.

Starting point is 00:32:42 But we put this together as well because you've got Burdon who's coming in. You've got everybody assuming a Dunezay is going to take over. And if we have Caleb Williams being a whole lot better, what really, like how big of a big boost and positive is that for D.J. Moore. So all of that, little conjecture in the front here, Rich, is this another big gap between these two guys? What do you say, DJ Moore is ECR 20? Xavier Worthy is 27. Does it deserve to be that big of a gap? And are you going to pick D.J. Moore?

Starting point is 00:33:10 These are two guys that I just haven't been drafting, which makes this kind of fun because it made me kind of just like, you know, the two. I still believe if you're just betting, I believe DJ Moore is a significantly better wide receiver than Xavier Worthy though. So if like that would be where I would start like the conversation with is that we've seen DJ Moore win on all three levels, whereas we've not seen that from Xavier Worthy at all. We saw Xavier Worthy make that push towards the end of last season, but a lot of that was like a lot of stuff created, you know, manufactured near the line of scrimmage. He wasn't winning with nuance. I mean, if you guys follow Matt Harmon's work at reception perception, Savior Worthy as a player that just he just didn't grade out very well, especially

Starting point is 00:33:48 against man coverage and press man. We just really haven't seen him be like a great wide receiver yet. And it could happen. You know, he's a young player. He's a young player. He's a year two player building off a strong second half. But now we have to go into the season with kind of a question mark, like where all these chief's wide receivers fit together now?

Starting point is 00:34:04 Because Rishie Rice is also a player that doesn't win with a lot of nuance. A lot of things have been his sample one near the line of scrimmage, right? you get Hollywood Brown. Because remember last year, we didn't get to see any of the way the Chiefs wanted to operate their passing game at all. I mean, Hollywood Brown got injured in the preseason, misses 14 games. She Rice opens the season. He's hurt in week four.

Starting point is 00:34:24 And they have to default run the offense back through a 35-year-old Travis Kelsey, which clearly wasn't the plan if you watched the opening month of the season. And the Chief's kind of offense just was never good, like, from a passing stance. And it injured Mahomes. I think that's what makes Mahomes interesting, too, is kind of having this all back and reset at the blocks of like, hey, we're going to have the three receivers back. And then hopefully Kelsey is a complimentary piece versus, you know, Traffing to run this offense.

Starting point is 00:34:49 You're now 36-year-old Travis Kelsey who's coming off of like the worst efficiency of his career. So that makes it interesting. But DJ Moore, I think, is just a bet on the better football player if you're making me pick, getting involved with Ben Johnson, getting rid of, getting him removed from the Shane Waldron, Thomas Brown offense that was a year ago, which was he was just a nightmare. If you saw any interviews with him, he talked about. His usage was absolutely awful, getting the ball just at the line of scrimmage, which he hated, not getting used creatively.

Starting point is 00:35:20 If you watch his body language during the season last year, he looked completely checked out. And it's because the offense was a travesty. You still have to hope that Caleb Williams can overcome some, of course, correct some of the mistakes that he had as a rookie. Things that quarterbacks typically, whether the coordinator is good or not, don't really correct. This offense just was so bad last year.

Starting point is 00:35:40 It's hard to take a lot away from what the Bears did and say like, hey, any, any of it could be static. It's just guess game. I'd rather have guys like Devante Smith and probably Cortland Sutton even in this range. But if you're making me pick, I would choose the guy who I believe is just a better football player. So, Erickson, obviously the same question. Who would you rather? But I'm going to throw in a little caveat.

Starting point is 00:35:59 I'd love to get if it sway's your answer at all. You can still give your normal answer, but then like, does this play into it? Does an extra round of value matter to you here? because we're probably looking at DJ Moore based on the overall ranks here. You're looking at him as roughly a fourth round player, but you're looking at Xavier Worthy somewhere between five and six. So straight line answer, Worthy versus DJ Moore. This is a difference between Widerceiver 2 and 3,

Starting point is 00:36:25 but also round would be the secondary thing. I'd be curious if it matters at all from a talent perspective, if they're close. I don't think it would move the needle for me that much, just getting worthy a round later than DJ Moore. it's still that middle round range where I think that you're still trying to make bets on potential breakout wide receivers. And to Rich's point, I haven't really been drafting DJ Moore a lot either for some of the reasons he laid out.

Starting point is 00:36:50 Just the vibes in general with him and Ben Johnson just, it doesn't seem like, oh yeah, this is going to work out great. This is going to be a fantastic pairing. I would rather wait and draft O'Don, again, the value game. If I'm going to bet on this bear's offense, just give me O'Donzee. Second year guy, breakout candidate. And that's kind of how I see worthy, where, yes, a lot of, receivers break out as rookies, but then a lot of them break out in year two. And the way that they

Starting point is 00:37:12 have talked about Xavier Worthy, it's exactly like they talked about Rashi Rice. When they talked about, hey, his rookie year, the first half of the season was okay, kind of up and down. Then he really hit his stride in his second half of that rookie year. That's exactly what Xavier Worthy did last year. At the second half of his rookie season, like, it was getting bad to start the, to start the season. It was like, this guy's going to be a bus. Like, what's going to happen with Xavier Worthy? but then he turned it on. I get that the Super Bowl numbers are very not realistic. But I think that the Chiefs, they keep talking about we want to bring back the deep ball.

Starting point is 00:37:44 I don't know. I just think that Xavier Worthy again, a prospect I really liked. He showed out in the second half of the season. And I want to look at some of the second year receivers under Andy Reid that fit this speed type of player that Xavier worthy can be, that I think that he maybe hasn't unlocked yet, Deshaun Jackson and Tyree Kill, just for some example. samples. Those guys both blew up in year two with Andy Reid as the head coach. So if Rashi Rice is limited or just not back to his 100% coming off of this season ending injury, maybe he takes a little bit longer to get going. I think this team can really use, I think we could see

Starting point is 00:38:19 Worthy and Rice both hit. If Travis Kelsey is the one that ends up taking a big step back. So I'm definitely more open to Worthy than DJ Moore. Oh, so you're going worthy. You pull the a rug here. I got this was going to be DJ Moore. We got some dissent here. Okay. So you went worried. That's where you were leaning, but the very first response, I thought you were like, oh, no, pooh-poohed this, it's DJ Moore, da-da-da. Love the breakdown, love that. So I have to be the one to break the tie here then. I think I'm going to go with Worthy.

Starting point is 00:38:48 And I think I might throw in a little bit, and this is cheating a tiny bit, but that value that you're going to get, you're getting him around to a round and a half, maybe even two behind DJ Moore, worried what burden takes, Loveland takes, what ends up being of that often? completely and how DJ Moore really thrives in it, where I think where these are really explosive player, I think they really at the end of the day, they might not be this big of a difference on ECR. So if I'm the tiebreaker here, I'm actually going to go on the lower side

Starting point is 00:39:16 with Xavier Worthy, which great to see, Erickson. I'm in love that you pick that. So if you're doing some stats here, again, in the wide receiver range, we actually had two non-favores wins. So we went two and one on the lower-ranked player going up. We now have three total in the Who Would You Rather's that are going lower on the ECR that you guys have both picked or have at least one at the end of the day. We're going to go and talk about some quarterbacks and tight ends. But first, the NBA Finals are here, and this is your last shot to win some real cash before the season ends.

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Starting point is 00:43:31 And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Gentlemen, let's go to some quarterbacks. We are going to play a quarterback one game. And then we're going to play kind of like a superflex. So the secondary one is going to be more of a superflex option, deeper quarterbacks versus if you're in that super flex range, who would you rather? But let's start with not super high in.

Starting point is 00:43:51 We're not touching the top five quarterbacks. I've played around with a couple different scenarios, by the way, as I was like staring at it. A couple different guys I kind of wanted to touch on. if I'm being specific, there was like a Jalen Hertz versus Joe Burrow one that was kind of floating out, but you got a lot more higher ranks

Starting point is 00:44:06 and they have a differential of a tier here. But we're going to jump to tier three in the QBs, and these guys are next to each other. This is QB8 and QB9. Bo Nix at QB8 versus Kyler Murray QB9. A lot of running upside here. So probably at the end of the day, the factor between the two might be

Starting point is 00:44:27 what you think you can get out of the passing game because they're both going to run. But Rich, you get to make that decision. Who would you rather at quarterback this year? You're kind of late round quarterbacking at Bo Nix or Kyler Murray. I think neither. I think when you look at your guys' ADP, even at Fantasy Pros, both these guys at cost are definitely not worth the squeeze,

Starting point is 00:44:45 especially compared to the running backs and wide receivers. I mean, I have my QB8 in the 90s. That's like where they should be going. Well, and you look at the quarterbacks lower, I like, I agree, by the way, because those like QB 11, 12, it's ridiculously good value. In particular, I don't think there's a huge gap this year between like QB8 and like QB 17 either. This is like a very flat year at QB for non-elites as well.

Starting point is 00:45:11 I think I look to the downside of both these QBs of paying the iron price or both of them. Well, one, Kyler Murray is like never made that jump, right? Of like from like just being like this, this guy that can give you a floor with some rushing to be like this full on what we now call the Konami guy. like the dual threat guys because he just hasn't been a good passer over his career. And I do think some of the infusion of like the increased too high stuff and making quarterbacks throw over the middle of the field has hurt a guy like Kyler who he's not the biggest dude, man. Like there's a reason he isn't throw over the middle of the field and why Marv didn't

Starting point is 00:45:44 have all of those like in breaking stuff. Because again, like to quote Matt Harmon again, the reception like Marv was winning on those inbreaking routes. He just wasn't getting targeted on those routes because Kyler either wasn't seeing him or was it making the correct reads on those routes. I mean, he literally hasn't had a 4% touchdown rate in what, the past four years. So you need like that marriage of the passing upside. I think he's had a solid floor, but there's just, he hasn't made able to make that jump.

Starting point is 00:46:10 So I don't want to pay the iron price for him. And then Bo Nix is his ADP is completely baffling to me. Like this guy looks like Denver, like what we elevated Tua, everything was manufactured for him as a rookie. And that's fine. When you get him at QB20, like where he was going last year and you can smash. But like now you're paying for him as a top 10 quarterback. He had two games before week 18 where he even finished higher than QB8. And they were completely identifiable spots.

Starting point is 00:46:43 He had eight games before week 18 where he faced a past defense in the front half of the league. And his average scoring week those weeks was QB 18 with a high scoring week of QB10. Now Denver, because they were good and made the jump last year, they have our 26th ranked passing schedule. They have a ludicrously more hard passing schedule. We didn't see him punch up as a rookie as good as it was. Sean Payton basically said, like, you know, I'm going to make you a proxy of what Mike McDaniel did with Tua and Drew Breeze.

Starting point is 00:47:10 Because the pressure stuff with Bo Nix is completely manufactured. He was awful under pressure as a rookie. And what Sean Payton did was like, hey, you know how you won't be under pressure? We'll just have you throw the ball at the line of scrimmage. 29% of his throws were at or behind the line of scrimmage. Only Patrick Mahomes and two of Tung of Loyola at higher rates. He had seven passing touchdowns on throws that didn't even go past the line of scrimmage last year. Number one in the NFL.

Starting point is 00:47:34 When he held the ball longer than two and a half seconds, he completely dipped. He went to 21st in quarterback rating. He threw 11 interceptions to 14 touchdowns with the 20th league in touchdown rate. I get like you can say like there's some floor here, but I don't want to take a quarterback as a floor play in this range. Like, I'd rather just wait and take like a Drake May and say like, hey, he could be what Bonix was last year as a floor playing, maybe all for them or upside. Maybe a J.J. McCarthy or a guy like that. I can't get on board with Bonix's ADP. I just can't.

Starting point is 00:48:05 Okay, so Kyler Murray is the answer for you. You're locking on Kyler Murray. You should be taking George. Well, no, I get neither. Or someone else in this range. Well, he's making the point that this is where the value really does matter significantly. Yes. And that taking the middle range of quarterback.

Starting point is 00:48:21 Yes. They're more likely to finish near the guys behind them than the guys in front of them. Correct. Completely agree. But that's why we have the debate. But I'm going to blow your mind here. Four rankers have them as a top six quarterback. This bananas. That's absolutely bananas. One of them is an analyst you've mentioned a couple times here. The reception is very high for this ranker for this quarterback. So we'll now go to you, Mr. Andrew. We saw them play in the playoffs. The offense died. I'm not taking Bo Nix as a top 10 quarterback.

Starting point is 00:48:54 Yeah, yell at me. These are your peers that are doing this, by the way. The ECR is based on these rankers. I agree. Kyler Murray and Bo Nix, that makes my stomach turn. Erickson, what's going on with your stomach with these two guys? Can you, can you, I mean, you got to pick one. That's why we're doing this.

Starting point is 00:49:10 I think everything else feels really good. I think we all relatively agree. It's like, you want to go elite? Here's your little grouping of elite. You don't go elite. Live in the later territory because it's like, what's the line? truly between like Brock Purdy at like QB 12 or 13 or whatever and and Bo Nix, you want value at the end of day.

Starting point is 00:49:28 So also don't get stuck on like the overall value. But it is still very alarming when you see like Murray and Nick's up there. So you got to pick one clearly. And which one are you going to do? If I have to pick one, I'm, I would pick Kyler. Again, I think that we've seen it for him. Oh, Beau is a higher one. I've seen Kyle.

Starting point is 00:49:43 Again, we've seen Kyle do it and not going to, he hasn't really completely taken that next step. But I would say that he kind of feels like he's on the hot seat a little bit where he needs to prove to this coaching staff that, hey, like, I am like the franchise quarterback. I know they already paid him, but it still were wanting more with him. And he even came out and said this obviously, I'm going to run more. So whether he does it or not remains to be seen. He has his production always falls off when Call of Duty comes out.

Starting point is 00:50:07 So that's always something you have to keep in mind. Because the thing, it's interesting, when I looked back at both of these quarterbacks, they had kind of similar seasons when it comes to their rushing. I think that they're both viewed as rushing quarterbacks. But when you go to putting these guys in your lineup weekend and week, out, it was really hard to project the games in which they would actually decide to run. And a lot of times it was based on game flow. If the Broncos were playing a more difficult team, like Rebar said, Bo Nix would run more,

Starting point is 00:50:34 but his passing numbers would dip. But then when they were playing a bad team, they would just beat up on that team and Bo Nix would have better passing numbers. So I think that to Rich's point, both of these guys are being propped up probably incorrectly. I would say that I did a little bit more optimistic about Kyler, Marvin taking a step in year two, he has, Trey McBride. I think that just in this office, I think I could see more from Kyler. I think he could put more on his shoulders where I don't think Sean Payton necessarily

Starting point is 00:50:59 wants to do it, making that comparison to Tua, where we're not trying to overload our second year quarterback to have him do everything. Like, let's make it easy for him. And when we're beating up on a bad team, you know, we can run the ball effectively. We have a really good defense. Like, let's do that. Whereas Arizona, they play in a dome. They're playing the NFC West, where you could see a lot of games where it's high-paced

Starting point is 00:51:18 shootouts. I just see the environment and season long. upside a little bit more. I can see that picture with Kyler Murray versus a bow Knicks who again a lot of his biggest numbers and stats came against really bad teams. He really beat up on these bad teams week 18 against Chiefs backups that the infamous Carolina Panthers game where we I remember we were talking about it on the weekly rankings. We're like Bo Nix top six quarterback are we really doing this week? He won us DFS money those weeks. I'm great but it was a lot of the matchups that were

Starting point is 00:51:49 driven but I know I have a couple things. things like to point out with Nix. Again, when it comes to the inconsistencies when he would run, when he wouldn't run, he had a 31% bus rate last year when it came to how often he would finish inside the top 12 versus outside the top 24. 31% that was the highest among any quarterback that finished top 10 overall in terms of total points scored. When it comes to his pass rating from a clean pocket, it was 24th. When it came to intermediate passing, so passing at the intermediate level from 10 to 19 yards downfield, ranked 40th out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks per PFF. So there's just enough holes, I think, in expecting him to just take this massive leap going

Starting point is 00:52:28 into year two. And this is something I've kind of talked about with, actually, I met with Justin, one of our developers in Boston, a couple days ago. He's a Bears fan. And obviously, he's always very making the comparisons to Jaden Daniels and Bo Nix to guys like Drake May and Caleb Williams. I think we have to remember that Caleb Williams and Drake May are significantly younger than Bo Nix and Jaden Daniels. They didn't play nearly as many games at the college level. those guys. So I don't think that we can just project, okay, Bo Nix is to take this monster sophomore leap when his rookie situation was really, really good. And maybe, I know at least I undervalued his rookie evaluation where he was with Sean Payton, how good a fit that was. But I'm not

Starting point is 00:53:06 trying to do an overvalue and double count that into year two, where he's going to take this another massive leap where I expect guys like Caleb and Drake May to take these massive leaps. And would anybody be surprised if Caleb Williams and Drake may outscore Bo Nix, now that they're both in much better situations, whereas he's in the same situation it was last year. Again, it was good, but maybe we can see more growth from guys like Drake May and Caleb Williams. So my long-winded answer saying, I'm going to go with Kyle and Murray. You know, I'm even more happy we talked about. This is probably the only time we're going to talk about these two guys this entire season, because they are that range that we don't want to draft. So you guys did a great job there.

Starting point is 00:53:40 But again, a quarterback that is lower in ECR that you guys both pick. All right, one more quarterback. We're living in the super flex range now. So just the only reason I'm saying this is, you know, Superflex hat on. This is like a QB2 when you're picking between these guys. Young quarterbacks Michael Pennix, who is the lower of the ranked players, QB24 on ECR versus J.J. McCarthy at QB22. This should be some fun. Maybe not exactly the Superflex type of quarterback you would want, but they technically are ranked in the top 24. Maybe you do, Rich. Michael Pennix or J.J. McCarthy, who would you rather? I know I was against D. Bro on Bo Nix, but I think I'm going to be on lockstep with him with JJ McCarthy here.

Starting point is 00:54:23 It's really just splitting kind of the area where these guys go is just having a lot more faith in, you know, Kevin O'Connell and the top-down offensive environment. Not that I think that the Falcons are necessarily going to be like a bad offense, but, you know, we saw Michael Penix even in that run, QB30, QB 25, QB7 and his three starts as a rookie. Like, he could get pushed. I think Michael Pennix has some fun James Winston to him as well. Like there could be like where you just get so much volume. It might not matter.

Starting point is 00:54:49 But I think J.G. McCarthy, the infrastructure of the Minnesota Vikings could really lead to him having like a Brock Purdyish type like the gap between him and Brock Purdy is. It could look a lot wider than what it is. I think that they're both going to probably have similar passing volume. And then McCarthy could have like he could be like a hyper efficient passer because everything the Vikings have done this off season has signal that they want to run the football more not only to insulate J.G. McCarthy, but get a lot of those, you know, high efficiency. play action targets with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and, you know, T.J. Hawkinson, you know, off of that play action game. I mean, you look at what they've done this offseason. I mean, the first thing they do is extend Aaron Jones. They sign Will Fries and Ryan Kelly.

Starting point is 00:55:30 They trade for Jordan Mason. They draft Donovan Jackson in the first round. Yesterday they just extended Josh Oliver, the best run blocking tight end in the NFL. So if J.G. McCarthy just has a reduction of the negative plays that Sam Darnold had because Donald was, for as much as jump he made, he was a very boomer bust quarterback. I mean, he was third in the NFL in plays that generated one whole EPA or more per play. But he was also 25th in plays that were negative minus one EPA or worse. He was 28th in sack rate. He was 19th in interception rate.

Starting point is 00:56:02 He was 32nd turnover worthy throw rate. If J.G. McCarthy just cleans that up as an improvement. Like the upside for this offense actually is even higher, considering, which seems wild to think, because they were such an overachieving team last year. The Minnesota Vikings have a top-down really good football team. I just be betting on the infrastructure. I think they offer more efficiency-based stuff. But if you are just like saying like, hey, Pennix could run into like 600 pass attempts,

Starting point is 00:56:25 I don't have a lot of pushback on that either. Erickson, would you say that? Michael Pennix versus J.J. McCarthy, who would you rather? I'm going to go with McCarthy. I think that's my pick. I think just the infrastructure we've seen with this Vikings offense just be so great for fantasy. I know that we talked about earlier, like Drake London, Dark Horse. wide receiver one overall.

Starting point is 00:56:44 Well, Justin Jefferson's not a dark horse to be wide receiver. Well, he's just, he's in the conversation. I mean, he's ranked as a top three receiver for a reason. So if he ends up being,

Starting point is 00:56:52 you know, the wide receiver one, you know, Chantazar, J.J.J. McCarthy has a pretty good season. He's got, you know, again, he has more weapons to just work with.

Starting point is 00:56:59 The offensive line I feel good about with Minnesota. So, and I don't want to be, again, Pennix, the sample size from last year. He only played a couple games. So he's still, you know, a first time starter,

Starting point is 00:57:09 really kind of taking everything under similar to McCarthy. So I will, with the Vikings QB. All right, we've got to tie it in, and we're going to do a couple of quick hitters on some rookies versus vets, but you guys can take a lot of these debates

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Starting point is 00:57:55 We're going to do one tight-in one. It's going to be gross. We're in the mud a little bit. There could be a super easy answer, but if you're around for our bold predictions show, which you should check out on YouTube and you heard Pat Fitzmores talk, Pat might not completely agree with this one. All right, prepare to feel yucky. tight end 15 versus tight in 16 Tyler Warren rookie versus Kyle Pitts and Tyler Warren is ranked

Starting point is 00:58:20 higher on the ECR fool me once right Rich what do you say which one of these guys is younger is it Kyle Pitts it's not right no I don't think so no barely just barely I don't know man I think it's pretty close right it's pretty close but what say you rich Kyle pitch you you go down this route again or is it rookie time there's no way you can get me a draft Kyle Pitts as long as he's on this, as long he's on this team, because he's not a fit. Like the Zach Robinson doghoused him last year. Like they, I can't believe he hasn't been traded this offseason. And maybe it's just because he's on that fifth year option.

Starting point is 00:58:52 And the Falcons wanted just a little bit more than what teams were willing to pry away from. Because over the final nine games last year, he had a, he had 183 yards receiving. Charlie Warner played more snaps than Kyle Pitts because he can run block. And what has the role in this offense always had? and all the throughout everyone that's run this scheme like you got you better be able to run block in this scheme they asked Kyle Pitts to be that two-way player last year he played 51% of his snaps in line last year his to open his career it was 32% 38% 21% he had a career low air yards per target as a default and Kyle Pitts wasn't able to generate yardage after the catch with

Starting point is 00:59:33 those with those targets near the line of scrimmage that he wasn't getting early in his career with Arthur Smith he was 55th among all tightest. ends and yards after the catch on targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He also just didn't get open. He was first out of 43 qualifying tight ends in ESPN's open score. Like he's just not a fit right now. excuses have been made based on quarterback play right now, being lost in schemes. But right now, Kyle Pitts is the common denominator of Kyle Pitts's problems.

Starting point is 01:00:01 And maybe that's just, you know, him coming off of the knee injury. Maybe he'll never be that player. And in the multiverse somewhere else, there's a Kyle Pitts that was healthy. landed in a good offensive environment and his career took off and is thriving. But as long as he's involved in this scheme, I don't see a lot of outs for him, you know, you know, paying off. Granted, the prices is as cheap as it's ever been. If you wanted to say, hey, whatever, I'm throwing that at the wall.

Starting point is 01:00:25 Like we say, he'll be 25 in October. We'll be doing this forever with Kyle Pitts. He's turning 25, 26, 27. But he's got to get on a new team, man. He's got to get a new team. If Kyle Pitts has like a top five tied in season, it might cause an incursion. We're going to just have all the different Kyle Pitches, just battling it out in the battle,

Starting point is 01:00:44 battle world. All right, Erickson, Kyle Pitts or Tyler Warren? I'll go Tyler Warren. I agree. Kyle Pitts needs a fresh start somewhere. I think that he's going to be great on the commanders in 2028 when he puts up a second 1,000-yard campaign. It's going to be great. I can't wait for the chiefs to get him.

Starting point is 01:00:59 He just replaces Kelsey. This will be super awesome. All right, so let's jump. Let's do a couple of quick hitters here. I've got some rookies versus vets. We've gone, fantastic show, gone long, so I don't want to sit too high into these ones. But this is going to be pure rookie versus vet.

Starting point is 01:01:15 Upside is going to obviously come into play. Let's start with the running back one here. RJ Harvey, who is RB 27. There's been a lot of talk about the moves that that team has been making as well, versus Dandre Swift, who is RB 24. And just kind of, eh, always. Rich, rookie versus vet. You want RJ Harvey, who is three spots lower or Dandre Swift, 24 versus 27 in the ECRRBs?

Starting point is 01:01:38 I still lean Harvey and just betting on kind of like how we did the same argument with Hampton versus Montgomery, right? Like you got kind of more of a boring player versus a guy that could just offer more upside, right? To break the tie. The signing of J.K. Dobbins, you know, didn't necessarily move a ton. I think it has a lot more to say about Adrick Estimate that it necessarily does RJ Harvey in terms of, you know, capital. And I never in projections had, you know, R.J. Harvey getting 300 touches either. So it wasn't like a big deal. I still had them operating with like in the capacity of some type.

Starting point is 01:02:08 a backfield split even with guys like Estimae and Julio McLaughlin. I think Dobbins takes away more from those guys than he necessarily does Harvey. Harvey also is in that like archetype where he doesn't necessarily need 300 touches because he's such an explosive player. Like giving him, you know, 200 to 225 touches could be significant. Like in the, like we've seen that archetype running back get a bigger fantasy boost in recent years, you know, at the Devon H. hands. And we talked about J. Gibbs earlier.

Starting point is 01:02:34 So I still lean towards, you know, RJ Harvey. DeAndre Swift is doing a little Neo in the Matrix this off season now. Like he's dodging all the bullets. Like he's getting as pure run out as you can hope for if you're in the DeAndre Swift camp. Well, Erickson, Swift is three spots higher in ECR over Harvey. So shiny new toy or I guess kind of what we've known before, Swift or Harvey? I will take the shiny new toy with RJ Harvey as well. I talked about it on a show, I think last week where I put DeAndre Swift as slightly overvalued.

Starting point is 01:03:04 And it just, I don't think it's the upside case is there for him. Every year of his career, you look, the best finish he's been is basically that RB2. And I think Reeves has talked about it. RB2 production is the easiest to replace. So you can get, I can just get, I'll roll with Javante Williams for a little bit. And he'll probably do 75% of what DeAndre Swift does in the Bears' offense. But then if I draft Harvey, oh man, this guy could end up being, what if he is Camara in Sean Payton's offense?

Starting point is 01:03:30 Again, not saying that's going to necessarily happen, but putting it within the range of outcomes, I know that's not going to happen for DeAndre Swift most likely. So I will take the upside shot with RJ, knowing that I can backfill RB2 production in case, okay, it starts out more as a committee. I can't rely on Harvey to open the year. We know J.K. Dobbins isn't made for the long term. We know that he's probably going to be most productive to start the year, but then Harvey's going to be the guy to lean on down the stretch. There you go. There's some value there.

Starting point is 01:03:55 Last one, wide receiver. I struggled in who to put Travis Hunter up against Travis Hunter, ECR 35 at wide receiver. I'll just be frank about it. I told Rich about this. There was one point where I threw a Chris Godwin in there, who is ECR 29. You know, there's an injury thing that's floating out there, but like Godwin is Godwin. And I switch it up to Debo Samuel, who is lower than Travis Hunter, which I don't think really helps the argument. But you've got some stuff going on with McLaren.

Starting point is 01:04:22 You obviously know the touchdown equity of Debo Samuel. So I'm not trying necessarily throw both out there, but Rich, if you want to answer it, Travis Hunter versus the higher Chris Godwin, the lower Debo Samuel, who and does he beat either? one of these guys. Yeah, I would probably take a bet on Travis Hunter versus Debo Samuel for sure, maybe even Chris Godwin as we go into the hood here. But I think Debo Samuel is a great real addition to the Washington commanders. I don't necessarily think he's a great fantasy addition. I mean, I think that the target share is going to be largely flat. I don't think people realize that like Terry McLaurin didn't even have like an elite target share last year. Like he was

Starting point is 01:04:57 in the low 20 to 23 percent range. Like he wasn't one of these guys pushing 25 to 30 percent. So the addition of Debo Samuel is definitely a pull a little bit on that, you know, assuming they get this contractual, you know, schism worked out over the summer. Most of these things usually do by the time we roll around to like August drafts. Debo hasn't played a full season of his career. It's just really hard to say like Debo offers a lot of upside. He's got one season that had like a massive touchdown spike. And that was the year he was like fantasy relevant. So if you run hot with touchdowns, maybe you get there. But that we've seen that that's an outlier year for Debo Samuel. I do have some. questions about Chris Godwin, too, just with the Liam Cohen change, because paired with the injury, paired with the Emekbuka edition, do we see Chris Godwin have to play more outside? We saw him have last year just get peppered with screen targets, right? 5.7 air yards for target, the lowest rate of his career. He had a 1.6% target share on route throws 20 yards or further downfield by far the lowest

Starting point is 01:05:55 rate of his career, 16% screen rate. Well, guess who's got his offensive coordinator now? You know, Travis Hunter. And Travis Hunter is a guy who already had some of that screen stuff built in at Colorado. He also won downfield as well. And also my thing with Travis Hunter is I've just been not wanting to place limits on him. Just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't happen. And it's funny that like we've seen like Show A Otani, right?

Starting point is 01:06:19 I know that's putting like, I'm making a lofty comparison like saying could he be like Otani like in the NFL. But I go back to Daniel Jeremiah at his pro day. And he was like, this guy is running nothing but like deep ins and go routes. and as pro day. And then they ask him to flip over and play defense. And they're like, he's not even sweating. Like, it's like, he just might be just not human. Like, he's just like operating at a different level.

Starting point is 01:06:42 It's like, I just don't want to cap what we, what Travis Hunter can be because we haven't seen it before. What if he is a guy that can play two ways? What, you know, what if, what if he is able to translate that to the NFL? So I've just not been wanting to cat. He's an exciting pick. Like, Travis Hunter is fun, man. Like, I've already drafted good receivers.

Starting point is 01:06:58 If I'm taking Travis Hunter here, I've already drafted good receivers on my team. I'm going to have some fun. I don't want to take a boring guy. That's a really good way to put it, too, because the idea of vets for, you know, it's a little bit tougher when you go like higher end on players, like, maybe in like the, you know, the Hampton versus Montgomery ones a little bit trickier maybe. But, you know, this is like you've already gotten a core piece. So Erickson, same thing.

Starting point is 01:07:19 I'm going to just throw both at you here. Godwin was the original pick rank quite a bit higher. Debo's a little bit lower. But, you know, there's the McLaren stuff that's floating out, their potential equity in that offense. Travis Hunter, does he take both of these for you because he is more fun? Yes, I'm going to take the guy that's more fun and not the guys that they're past their prime, right? It's so clear that Chris Godwin's probably not going to do what we did last year. Debo's hope, I mean, you're hoping Debo doesn't do what he did last year because he was terrible

Starting point is 01:07:46 last year. But these guys have been banged up. They're not the number ones on their respective teams, not to say that Travis Hunter is, but I just think that Cohen coming from, you know, originally from the Rams where you just see these concentrated, target shares. And Travis Hunter, again, I don't know exactly how they will deploy him on offense, but I know for sure when we look at the end of the year who has a really high target rate per route run, Travis Hunter is going to be inside the top 10 because when he's on the field, he's going to get targets, whether, but to the extent of what that turns into fantasy production and actual volume, it remains to be seen, but he's going to be targeted at a high rate when he is

Starting point is 01:08:18 actually playing on the offense. So I'm going to take the fun pick here as well and go with Travis Hunter. And the Jaguars are just probably not in a position to rebuttal Travis Hunter, right? Like, say the plan has only given six like a 65% route share to open up who else on this routes outside of brian thomas jr. are they leaning on in the past game i don't just i don't think if like travis hunter is operating at like a 60% route rate and he's a productive player in their offense they can't afford to take that off the field because the diami brown parker washington you're hoping breton strange makes a step forward right like he's just a better football player than this

Starting point is 01:08:52 guys the fans will right because these are the same fans i believe didn't they show up wearing the clown outfits the Jaguars fans because of Balke, the old GM. So they're going to riot if they're like, put Travis on offense, get him on defense. Well, we want to hear from you guys of all the ones we talked about, who are the guys that you're picking. And if you've also got some who'd you rather debate, you can drop them in the comments below. And we can all jump in and we can have some bigger conversations about more players, which we would love to have. We love having Rich, Rich Rebar.

Starting point is 01:09:23 You can check them over at Sharp Football Analysis. Lord Rebes. You can check him out on Twitter. Make sure to follow him there. Erickson all across Fantasy Pros. And we got draft guides coming out the podcast. You can find me at Is It the Welsh. And you can check out all the ranks over at Fantasypros.com slash rankings. Make sure to lock in on the apps and the website because we got tons and tons of content as draft season continues to move on.

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Starting point is 01:10:10 Hey, guys, it's us and the Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

Starting point is 01:10:41 We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions. because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

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The Herd with Colin Cowherd - FantasyPros - Would You Rather: Which Fantasy Football Players Would You Take in 2025? (Ep. 1590)

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