The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - 5 BIG Predictions For The NBA Finals!

Episode Date: June 6, 2024

Just ahead of the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks, Jason Timpf offers his five biggest predictions for the series! 2:30 - Luka will look comfortable 4:30 - P.J. Washington’s 3 point shooting will be swing factor for Dallas 5:30 - Porzingis’s 3 point shooting will be swing factor for Boston 7:30 - Tatum’s impact will extend beyond the box score 9:00 - Multiple Boston blowouts 9:30 - Series prediction (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games.

This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen and learn the hard way on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops and I here at The Volume. Happy Wednesday, everybody.

We are one day away from the start of the NBA finals. And after much deliberation, after much film, after mailbags, after everything, we are finally going to do our prediction show today. So I'm going to go over the five things that I expect to see in this series. There's five kind of general predictions of things that I think we'll see. And then lastly, at the end of the show, I will give you guys my pick for the 2024 NBA finals. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels.

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So five things I expect to see in the 2024 NBA finals between Boston and Dallas. Number one, I expect Luca to look very comfortable. We just saw against Minnesota's defensive personnel with Jaden McDaniels, who, again, I don't think he's as big and strong. Obviously, he's not as big and strong as Tatum, who will present a different type of physical challenge to Luca. But we saw Kyle Anderson, who was a similar,

type of physical build. We saw Jaden McDaniels. We saw a lot of really good defensive personnel on Luca and a substantially better rim protector and Rudy Gobert than anybody that Boston brings to the table. And Luca looked really comfortable. 32 points per game. He was 47% from the field, 43% from 3 and 11 attempts per game in that series against Minnesota. So I think Luca is going to look more or less similar in terms of his command of the series in this particular matchup. His knee looked better. He looked more or less 100% to me. He's also had a full week of rest since then to kind of keep things sharp and healthy. So like I expect Luke to look comfortable. And then also Boston's pick and roll defense is the weak point of their defense. They obviously, Porzingis

being out had an impact on the metrics. But even with Porzingis in the lineup, that's the one weak point in Boston's defense. They have defenders that do okay in switches. They, like I think Al Horford does better on switches than a guy like Porzinger. but Porzingis is much better at the rim. But neither of them presents that unique capability that a Rudy Gobert, some other guys around the league that can defend in a deep drop, defend at the level, and defend in switches.

And so I expect a lot of attacking there. Now, Boston's going to have counters, like we talked about in the film sessions. I expect to see Christop's Porzingis on PJ Washington for the majority of the series. But in general, I think that Luke is going to look to attack that specific opening throughout the series, and I do think he will look comfortable.

Number two, PJ Washington's three-point shooting will be the main swing factor for the Dallas Mavericks. Again, as we talked about, with Porzingis on PJ Washington, the simple problem that presents for Dallas is if he rolls into the lane on ball screens against Porzingis, he's just not the vertical spacer that Daniel Gafford or Derek lively is. If he pops to the three-point line, he's a 29 and a half percent above the break three-point shooter

in this postseason run over 41 percent from the corners. but by virtue of just the way pick and roll works, when you pop to the three-point line, generally speaking, it's an above-the-break-three. And it would just be really difficult to configure that to end in a corner three for PJ Washington anyway. And so PJ Washington's ability to knock down above the break threes or to drive those close-outs and hit floaters and make plays off the bounce,

that is going to be a huge swing factor for Dallas's offense in the series because he is going to be the entry point for them to attack Boston's defense through Porzingis or Horford, whoever's on the floor. Number three, Porzingis's three-point shooting will be the main swing factor for Boston. One of the main elements to Dallas's defense, they are a load-up defense. They want to keep their rim protectors at the rim.

They want to shrink the floor on ball handlers and leave openings at the three-point line, usually on the opposite end of the four. Specifically in Pick and Roll, Gafford and Lively have been guarding a roll man in Rudy Gobert that has bad hands that struggles to finish layups. He shot below 50% on layups.

postseason run, right? So like totally different type of offensive threat in Christops Porzingis, even than Chet Holmgren, who shot just 22% from three in the Dallas Maverick series, right? So like Porzingis who shooting 40% from three in the four playoff games he's played this year, and I think 38% for the season, just a completely different threat, and specifically is comfortable and confident shooting out well beyond the above the brake line. Like out to like 26, 27 feet, he's pretty comfortable. And so lively in Gafford, if they're going to protect the rim, in ball screens and in just straight ISO post-up situations where they're just helping off of Porzingis, they're going to have to concede those threes. I believe they will concede them to start the series, right?

If Porzinger starts hitting, that will force Dallas to abandon a lot of their core defensive concepts and change the way that they look to guard a lot of this stuff. So Porzengis's three-point shooting is going to be huge. If his efficiency dips to the point where it's tenable for Dallas to leave him open, or if Porzingis loses confidence, that could be a massive swing in Dallas's favor over the course of the series. We've seen good shooters on great teams lose confidence in the finals before. Even for the champion last year, Michael Porter Jr. struggled for Denver. Michael Porter Jr. struggled again this year in the Minnesota series, right? Like Harrison Barnes in the 2016 finals.

We've seen guys that can shoot go ice cold in the NBA finals and just the pressure of that stage in that situation. And if that happens to Porzingis, that would be a huge. swing in Dallas's favor, especially if it continued along to Horford. Number four, Jason Tatum's impact will extend well beyond the box score. I'm not interested in having a conversation about how well Tatum is playing in this series that focuses solely on the box score. It's a factor. He will need to produce offensively, but if he's at 25 points per game in the series on, you know, let's call it 60% true shooting, but it seems like he's not as involved offensively, that probably has a lot to do with the way

he's being guarded in all of the defensive responsibility that he has in this group. Obviously, if he goes into the series and he averages 22 points per game and shoots like 37% from the field, that's a different story. But make sure that we pay attention over the course of the series of all the little things that Tatum does to make this team function. On the offensive end of the floor, with him being the entry point because he's one of their best playmakers, probably the best playmaker on the team, with him running guard action with Derek White and Drew Holiday to attack Luca Donchich, get the defense and rotation. with simple playmaking, and then everything he can do on the defensive end of the floor between

being the low man, switching onto anybody, switching on to Luca. Tatum is a Swiss Army knife, and he needs to be covered in that specific way. It's a very different type of series. I used to run into this all the time with comparing LeBron to some of these other guys at the top of the league. What Luca does for Dallas is very different than what Jason Tatum does for Boston, and so just zeroing in on box score numbers, I don't think is a fair way to characterize their roles in this series. And then lastly, I think we will see multiple Boston blowouts in this series.

I'm not going to get into the specifics why, because I want to save it for my prediction, or my actual pick for the series. But one of my big predictions for the series, I think we will see multiple games where Boston wins and the game is over in the early fourth quarter. I think that's just going to be a recurring game. I think we're going to see at least two of them over the course of the series. So here's my prediction. I'm picking Boston in six games.

And my reasoning is pretty simple. I think that Dallas's defense, even though it is an elite defense, is a little bit dependent on loading up on the strong side. Go through their matchups in the first three rounds with the clippers. Evie Kazoubatch, non-shooter. Terrence man, guy who can knock down threes, but not a super aggressive three-point shooter. Russell Westbrook, bad three-point shooter. PJ Tucker, bad three-point shooter.

Go to the Thunder series. Lou Dort and Josh Giddy were guys that you weren't necessarily concerned about chasing off the line. Chet Holmgren had a bad shooting series. even Kaysan Wallace and Aaron Wiggins struggled to shoot so they could really load up the strong side. For the Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert, non-shooter, Jada McDaniels, a guy they weren't particularly worried about. Nikiel Alexander Walker, a guy they weren't worried about.

Kyle Anderson, non-shooter. That is not what you're dealing with with Boston. All eight of their core rotation players, including the core guys, Derek White, Drew Holiday, Jason Tatum, Jalen Brown, Porzingis, Horford off the bench, Peyton Pritchard, and Samhouser. That's probably going to be the core eight guys you see in the series. All eight of them are.

guys that you basically can't leave open. And so it's just a fundamentally different type of defensive situation that they are in. Boston, in my opinion, is going to force Dallas out of their core defensive schemes and really challenge their depth of personnel that can contain on the perimeter. What does that mean? When you can load up on the strong side, you can ask a guard to chase over the top, like a Derek Jones Jr. You can maintain your best available matchups. And you can have one elite perimeter defender like Derek Jones Jr. do just such a great job on Ant that it kind of changes the series, right? Or PJ Washington do a good job on Carl Anthony Towns. That's not what it's going to be like against Boston. It is going to be a down-the-roster job of containing on the perimeter in a far more

spaced out environment. And I do not think Dallas is that type of defense. Interestingly enough, I don't think Boston is a very good load-up the strong side type of defense because they're not a great rim protection team, right? And they're a little bit smaller on the perimeter. But I think Boston is an excellent spread the floor, contain on the perimeter, depth of perimeter defense type of team. These are two very different defenses. Boston is actually like really well equipped to guard themselves, right? Because you'd be comfortable with Jalen Brown guarding a guy, Jaden Bart guarding a guy, Drew Holiday guarding a guy, Derek White guarding a guy. That is not the type of build that Dallas has. And so I, I want to be clear.

I expect Luca to look great, and I think Dallas's offense will function for stretches of the series. I think they'll win games in this series. I just think Boston's going to get good looks more consistently. Back to that fifth prediction that I had, I think there will be nights when Boston's hitting their threes, and they run Dallas out of the gym. As I mentioned, I think there will be at least two Boston wins in this series

where the game is over in the early fourth quarter. I think Dallas's wins will be more grind out, like stuck in the half-court, lower scoring, Luca out, execute some type of games. But to be clear, Boston's a really good clutch team too. These two teams actually ranked third and fourth in net rating in clutch situations in the regular season ranked with the entire NBA. These are both elite clutch teams. And so like if Boston actually steals one or two of the clutch games early in the series, that's where Dallas could be in real trouble.

One other thing, Boston is the more experienced team. Tatum, Horford Brown, and Derek White have all played in the finals. Drew Holliday literally won the finals in 2021. they should be relatively comfortable in this setting while there might be some jitters on the Dallas front. If I had to guess a pathway for how I think the series is going to go, I think Dallas will steal one in Boston. If I had to guess, I'll go with game two.

And then I think Boston will steal one in Dallas. If I had to guess, I'd go with game four. And then I think Boston will win games five and six. So if I had to pick game by game, that means I think Boston's going to win game one, Dallas game two, Dallas game three, Boston game four, Boston game five, Boston game six. More or less, a similar path.

pathway to what happened to Boston in the 2022 finals. That's kind of how I see it going at this point. I want to be clear, like Dallas very much has a chance to win this series. This isn't me saying Boston is 100% going to win, and Dallas is a bunch of bums. But in two elite teams, I think it is a matchup that favors Boston. I also think Boston is a little bit better on both ends of the floor. I like that they have home court advantage. I like that they're a little bit more experienced.

I think Boston is more likely to win the series. And so I am picking Boston to win in six games. right, it's out there, it's in the ether. We're going to cover the games. I'm excited for it. I will see you guys tomorrow night after the final buzzer. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL, late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games.

This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen and learn the hard way on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHart podcast. Guaranteed human.