The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Darryn Peterson or AJ Dybantsa: Who should be #1 pick in 2026 NBA Draft?

Episode Date: February 22, 2026

Jason does his first scouting report on the 2026 NBA Draft, specifically debating whether Darryn Peterson of Kansas or AJ Dybantsa of BYU should be the number one overall pick. He breaks down the stre...ngths and weaknesses of each player and also compares them as prospects to potential NBA rookie of the year, Cooper Flagg of the Dallas Mavericks. All lines presented by Hard Rock Bet.  #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:02:04 or wherever you get your podcasts. The Volume. All right, welcome to Hips tonight here at The Volume. Happy Thursday, everybody. I hope all of you guys are having an incredible week. As promised, we're going to take our first look at the 2026 NBA draft, specifically at the top two guys, Darren Peterson and AJ DeBonsa.
Starting point is 00:02:39 Right now, those are the two guys that are competing for that number one spot, a little bit of a drop-off before you get to Camboozer. I'm going to primarily be focusing on those two guys. talk about which guy I would pick first and why I want to dive deep into both players and what I expect from them as NBA players moving forward. You guys know the joke before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Make sure you like this video and turn on our video notifications. You don't miss anymore. That actually helps us a lot within the algorithm as well. And then last minute, at least, if you guys want to get
Starting point is 00:03:08 some mailbag questions into our mailbags, drop them in the comments underneath this video as well as all of our other full episodes. But mailbag, call it, write your question. We'll get to them on Fridays throughout the rest of the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So, hard rock bet, our partner who provides all of our lines, has Darren Peterson as the current favorite to go number one. He's minus 300. And A.J. DeBonsa is right behind him at plus 375. That's a pretty substantial favor. That's, that's, you know, that's hard rock bet telling you they think that Darren's probably going to go number one. Now, before we go any further, as we start to talk about this particular debate, I don't think you can go wrong with either of these guys. I don't think
Starting point is 00:03:49 this is a case of like one of these guys is a star and one of these guys is a bust. I think barring injury, both of these guys have first team all-MBA potential. And I think both of them are more likely than not to make at least some version of an all-MBA team in their careers. Now, it's interesting because I came into this process thinking that I would lean towards Darren. in Peterson. The main reason why it has to do with my general kind of ethos surrounding player archetypes. Do you guys remember back in 2023 when we were debating Scoot Henderson versus Brandon Miller for that second overall pick in the Wemby draft? We were just thinking, you know, which one of these two guys has more potential and should go number two? I ended up choosing Brandon Miller because of a similar
Starting point is 00:04:38 kind of archetype belief. I thought that the lanky wing score archetype was an archetype I preferred over the undersized hyperathletic guard kind of archetype, which we've seen flame out at various points in NBA history. So in that particular case, I leaned towards the lanky wing. But in this particular case, Darren Peterson, is this like big guard, like a traditional two guard who's got a really good frame and is super athletic and can really shoot. And then another kind of lanky forward score archetype, right? So I came in thinking, even though I prefer the lanky forward score over the tiny speed athleticism guard, I do prefer the bigger, more athletic, you know, stronger fire hydrant style big traditional two guard that can shoot over the lanky wing. So I was like, okay, I'm going to
Starting point is 00:05:35 dig into this and I'm going to like Darren Peterson and I actually ended up leaning ever so slightly towards AJ DeBanza right it was a surprise to me given my kind of general belief surrounding archetypes so there are two
Starting point is 00:05:52 differences that actually caused me to lean again ever so slightly towards DeBanza even though I think both of these guys are stars so one Darren Peterson is an elite athlete but he's not a world beating athlete like Anthony Edwards. Anthony Edwards is maybe the best athlete since Michael Jordan at the two-guard position. I think Darren Peterson looks like an upper-tier NBA athlete. I just don't think he enters into that like world-beating athlete like Anthony Edwards. And then secondly, for being a lanky forward,
Starting point is 00:06:24 we've seen lanky forwards like Paul George and Kevin Durant in the past have an issue getting to the basket because they're thin, guys can beat them to spots, they get physical up underneath them. they typically end up being low volume at the rim guys. There is a power and a relentlessness to AJ DeBonce's attack of the basket that I think will serve him really well in his career and help him avoid some of the issues that the link your forwards have had. I actually look at DeBanza as kind of a sort of hybrid between that K.D. Paul George, big forward jump shooting archetype and like that Janus, Zion, LeBron style
Starting point is 00:07:03 big athletic basket attacker. To be clear, he's not Janus. He's not LeBron. He's not Zion. He's not anywhere near what those guys were as power basket attackers. I just think he's got a little bit more of that in his game. I should say a lot more of that in his game than some of these other skinny forwards that have come before him. I wanted to find a way to quantify what kind of escapes him from that specific archetype. AJ DeBonsa attacks the rim like crazy. We'll get into some of the numbers when we dive deep into the players. So what essentially drove me to take DeBonce's side ever so slightly is I think he's going to have a really high floor. He's going to impact the game a ton as an athlete possession to possession because he pressures the rim so much, because he can rebound.
Starting point is 00:07:47 If he adds the defensive end and kind of puts all of those things together, he has a better natural feel for playmaking than Darren Peterson. If he can add the jump shot and the defense event to it, I actually think he has best player in the world potential. I think Darren Peter, is a star. I just don't see quite as high of a floor or ceiling because of the lack of towards the rim aggression, which we'll dig into in a little bit. Quick note here, I did not factor in this Darren Peterson weirdness from this season really much at all, maybe a tiny bit, but not much at all in this particular situation. There's been a lot of concern about his availability this season. I don't want to get too much into specifics because there's a lot of like he said,
Starting point is 00:08:28 she said going on. But the gist of it is he doesn't seem to want to play unless he's he's 100% healthy. He's been quick to sit even within games if he's feeling even just a little bit off. And there may or may not be some attitude related stuff. There was some internet sleuthing done surrounding the absence from the University of Arizona game because of some beef he had with Bill self surrounding his intensity and practice. So like there's there's some weirdness for sure. Now one bit of context, Darren's in a weird phase of his career. He's very young. He's on the precipice of generational wealth. He's got a lot of these grownups, including an agent from Wasserman that's like around him and influencing him a lot right now. So I say all that to say this.
Starting point is 00:09:09 I won't sit here and pretend like all this stuff is a good thing. I would certainly prefer it. If Darren Peterson just loved playing basketball so much that he was out there all the time, even when he's not quite 100%. I would prefer it if we didn't hear some of the things that we've heard said about the whole situation. But I don't think we know nearly enough about the situation, certainly not in the concrete sense surrounding his character to pass on the guy. It's very possible that Darren gets into the NBA, has the security of a number one pick contract. You make a lot of money.
Starting point is 00:09:39 Cooper Flag is on a $63 million contract right now as a rookie. It's very possible that he gets to that point and some of his sphere of influence kind of chills out a little bit, backs off a little bit, and he just settles into being a hooper and some of these issues pass away. So I'm mainly looking at what I see in these two guys as basketball players. Again, they're very different archetypes. I thought I would lean towards Darren Peterson because I'm not usually the guy that likes
Starting point is 00:10:05 the lanky forwards, but there is a physical downhill aggression with AJ DeBonsa that sold me when I dug in to my scout for this. And I ended up leaning ever so slightly towards him. I would end up taking DeBonson number one if I had to take a pick right now. A lot of basketball left. Darren Peterson's got a lot more games that he could get into this year and show more of the parts of his game that haven't flashed this year, like his playmaking or his driving of the basketball.
Starting point is 00:10:28 We'll see if AJ DeBonson makes improvements in some of his areas. This could all change by the time we get to June. But if I had to make a pick right now, I'd take AJ DeBonson number one and Darren Peterson number two. So now let's talk about each of the players. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, the official sportsbook partner of the Miami Heat and the Orlando Magic. What's better than the sound of the ball on the hardwood?
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Starting point is 00:14:33 Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Individually and more of a deeper scout. AJ DeVos has played in 25 games this year. He's averaging 24 points per game, seven rebounds, and four assists. He's shooting 54% from the field, 36% from 3 and 75% from the free throw line. seven attempts at the rim per game and 68% when he gets there. Those are amazing numbers for a dribble drive kind of lanky wing. That is not a stat to just make light of there.
Starting point is 00:15:15 I think that's super impressive. And on tape, there is this physical downhill aggression that screams off the screen. He gets into his high hesitation dribbles and he hits the gas and he plays physical. he plays off of two feet. Even his counters are aggressive. Like a lot of times when guys get cut off, they'll spin into some sort of distance shot, like a hook over one of their shoulders or a fade away. And don't get me wrong, DeBonza's got that in his game and he'll go to it sometimes. But DeBunson will like regularly go to that step through move. Like you'll get turned around and try to continue to go at you towards the basket. He uses that step through all the time. And so
Starting point is 00:15:54 that's what allows him to pump up his rim attempt numbers. He is relentless, both in his initial attacks and in his counter moves to get towards the rim. And the finishing, the 68%, it's the ability to finish above the rim, the dunks that he has that are just, you know, obviously earth-shattering highlights. But there's also a quality bit of rim finishing there in terms of layups. He's got good soft touch around the rim, and it helps that he's super athletic and big. So he's finishing from closer to the rim than most people when they get to that point. this is my favorite part of his game. There's a nastiness to him at the rim.
Starting point is 00:16:31 Even in his poor shooting nights, like the Arizona game, he missed a lot of jumpers in that game. But he was also forcing his action towards the rim, and he was getting a lot of shots that were close to the basket. A lot of shots that he could have made that he barely missed, little short floaters, little finishes around the basket. I think as he continues to build muscle, as he continues to improve with his reeds in the NBA, right?
Starting point is 00:16:52 Like we talked about this with Cooper Flagg yesterday, understanding angles, spacing. As he improves in those areas, I think he's going to improve even more as a rim finisher in the long run. And then he's got the advanced scoring moves in terms of like short range, mid range, long range scoring. He's got the fadeaways. He's got the stepbacks. He's got the hook. He's got the stepthroughs. He's got the euros. We talked about the stepthroughs going towards the basket earlier. The pull-up shooting is already pretty advanced for a player his age. She's shooting 46% on pull-up twos off the dribble. Really good close to the rim. When he gets inside
Starting point is 00:17:23 to 17 feet. 30 for 58. That's 52% on pretty high volume on short pull up twos. That's super impressive. 34% on pull up threes. That's not bad. 40% on floaters. Not bad. If he can make mild improvements there, like going from, you know, getting rid of some of the longer twos and getting that inside of 17 feet percentage from 52 up to like 55, 56, from pull up 3s, from 34 to like 36, 37 on floaters from 40 closer to 50. We're talking about one of the more dynamic three-level scores in the league. And what happens is when you're as aggressive towards the basket as DeBonse is, you end up getting some pretty high-quality pull-up looks as defenders have to basically
Starting point is 00:18:08 account for your downhill aggressiveness. The ceiling with AJ DeBonce is off the charts. There are two things that are kind of like, I wouldn't call them red flags necessarily, but areas of opportunity. It hasn't really become as much of an impact defender. as he's capable of yet. He has the potential to be an all defense guy. And I do think he'll be a high level defender by the time he gets to his late 20s. He has the competitive spirit, competitive spirit for it and the tools. And this is what kind of drives me back towards
Starting point is 00:18:35 Kevin Durant. Kevin Durant never really committed to being like a super high level defender possession to possession to possession. And yet he was a high level defender for the most part in his career because he just has insane physical tools. And that's essentially what I expect to happen happen with AJ DeBanza. Even as a floor, I expect him to be a guy that can be an impact defender when he gets to the NBA. The second piece of it is improving as a jump shooter. Again, there's a fine line between being capable of making those shots and actually being an elite jump shooter and how that can change the way that you're guarded. If he can put those two things together, what he has right now is the aggressive basket attacking, the polish as a score, the ability to make the reads. He's actually a more
Starting point is 00:19:20 willing passer than Darren Peterson is. He's averaging about four assists per game this year. He's got a decent little bit of margin between his number of assists and turnovers, whereas Darren Peterson actually has more turnovers than assists. When you look at AJ DeBonse, he's already got these like kind of baseline skills. If you jump the jump shot up to that next level and if you add the impact defense, we're talking about a guy who has the potential to be a perennial MVP candidate in the NBA, the potential to be the best player in the world. I'm super, super high on AJ DeBons. And the floor is high.
Starting point is 00:19:51 Like even if the jumper kind of hangs around one point per shot, like Jason Tatum's has in his career, or even if he only ever becomes an average defender, we're still talking about a guy who's going to be in, you know, third team, all NBA, second team, all NBA type of discussions most years when he gets into his mid to late 20s. Darren Peterson, only played in 14 games this season,
Starting point is 00:20:11 28 minutes per game, 20 points per game, 48% from the field, 41% from 3, 80% from the line. More turnover's than assist. He's been a little bit of a gunner this year. I'll dive into the passing in a little bit. It's not really like an ability thing. It's more of just like a forcing the issue kind of thing.
Starting point is 00:20:29 We'll talk about that in a minute. The jump shooting is the big appeal here. He's just been completely ridiculous off the catch this year. He's shooting 46% on catch and shoot threes. And the degree of difficulty on a lot of these is off the charts. The majority of them are heavily contested. A lot of them are on the move. He's not getting like clean spot up threes.
Starting point is 00:20:47 he does, he's got a handful, he's got 25 of them this, this whole year. So a little over, like one and a half per game, basically. He's 15 for 25 on that. That's literally 60%. So like, if you leave him open and the thing's going in, but most of them are on the move. He's shooting 41% on threes coming off of off ball screens, like wide pin downs, things like that. He's shooting 38% on three's coming off of handoffs. He's very athletic so he can get his feet set on the move and get a good strong base up into his shot. His off the dribble twos have been off. outrageously efficient. He's 50% on all pull-up twos, 59% on twos inside of 17 feet, 13 for 22.
Starting point is 00:21:25 That's like Shea Gildas-Alexander territory. Obviously super low volume, but that's the kind of percentage in that high 50s that you're getting from Shea on short twos inside of 17 feet. The only spot he's really struggled with his jump shot is off the dribble from three. He's just nine for 29 overall on pull-up threes off the dribble. One of those is a pretty ugly bank shot that went into. He's two for 12 on three. in pick and roll when like guys go under picks or they die on the screen. Biggs too far back, that kind of thing. He's been very good at the rim, 66%, but really low volume, only 2.7 attempts per game, which for an athlete like him, you'd like to see that number consistently higher.
Starting point is 00:22:03 He is a ridiculous athlete. Eight dunks this year, most of them have been major highlights, a variety of ways to driving dunks in the half court, like the one he had against BYU, transition dunks just in the open floor, lob dunks like cutting back door out of his own look, tip dunks. He had this ridiculous dunk against Colorado where he missed a floater curling off of an off ball screen and then just beat everyone in the gym off the floor and tip dunked it in with his right hand. This is the piece that has the Anthony Edwards cop going around. And you see it, right? Because like you have this insane athlete who's also a great jump shooter. And I do see some of that like his combination of the size and strength at the position as well as the jump shot. It's a part of why I like him. But I actually don't see the Anthony Edwards. comp as much because I think Anthony Edwards is another level of defender. And where you really, really saw that was attacking the basket. What I see, I'm going to provide a different comp here. What I see with Darren Peterson is more of like a young Ray Allen, kind of like that
Starting point is 00:23:00 Seattle Supersonics era Ray Allen. And here's why I make that comp instead of the Anthony Edwards comp. One, young Ray Allen was a great athlete, but not an Anthony Edwards level athlete. And that's true of Darren Peterson. I think Darren Peterson is an upper level NBA athlete, but Anthony Edwards is probably the athletic two guards since Michael Jordan. There's a whole different level that you're getting there. Two, young Ray Allen didn't get to the rim very much. He was efficient and explosive when he got there, but the volume was generally low. And that lines up with Darren Peterson's play style and in the sense that
Starting point is 00:23:32 he's more of like an off the ball kind of jump shooter, right? Anthony Edwards was much higher volume and efficiency as a driver of the basketball at Georgia, almost twice as often getting to the rim when he was at Georgia. So there's like a clear difference in shot profile between those two guys. three heavier emphasis on offball jump shooting. Ray Allen was one of the original high-volume movement shooters in the NBA. As a matter of fact, there was a two-year stretch with the Supersonics where he led the league and three-pointers made per game both seasons. And it was 06 and 07.
Starting point is 00:24:01 In those seasons, he made 99 threes flying off of off-ball screens. That's like a whole element of his game that is fundamentally different than what we see from like an Anthony Edwards, for example. He was a catch-and-shoot player at heart. and so is Darren Peterson. Almost 70% of Darren Peterson's attempts so far in college have been jump shots. So again, I look at Darren as like an evolutionary Ray Allen. I think he's got a stronger frame. I do think he has on ball potential. Like that'll be the difference. The difference between him having a Ray Allen career and something more than that is going to be him tying together the on ball stuff, becoming a much better on ball, pull up jump shooter, him becoming a much better dynamic driver of the basketball, right? like Ray Allen's peak was second team all-MBA during those years with the Sonic.
Starting point is 00:24:46 So as of peaking is like a fringe top 10 guy, right? If Darren Peterson can figure out things on the ball, improve as a pull-up jump shooter, improve as a basket attacker, that's where he can go from being a guy who's in that second, third-team all-MBA conversation for most of his prime to being like a perennial first-team all-MBA MVP candidate type of player. So again, he's 31% on pull-up three. this year. Just 38% on floaters. There's some like off the drill parts of his game that he needs to tie up. And then an athlete like him should be
Starting point is 00:25:19 getting more like four or five attempts at the rim per game. Lastly, the emphasis on taking easy reads when they're available. One of the big gripes with Darren this year is that he's been a little bit of a tunnel vision score. Now, I've heard people close to the situation describe it as like, oh, he hasn't had as much opportunity on the floor. So when he does get on the floor, he just wants to show what he can do. And I get that to a certain extent. I actually agree when I watch him. I think it's more about willingness. He's made several really high level passing reads. He'll come off of a screen and whip a cross court pass to the corner off of a tagging low man. And you're like, whoa, that was
Starting point is 00:25:55 wild or he'll make a really impressive lob pass or pocket pass. Like he can make these reads. And most of his turnovers are not like bad reads or, I mean, bad passing reads or, uh, or any sort of like lack of passing skill, they tend to be like over penetration turnovers, like him forcing the issue. Like he'll pick up charges. He'll dribble into double teams and lose the basketball. Like he'll drive and a guy will come over and openly double team. And instead of just like seeing it happen and making the swing pass, he'll just dribble into the double team and then fumble the ball away. So like he has more turnovers than assists, but I don't think it's necessarily a skill issue. I think it's mostly him just forcing the issue. That tells me it's a an approach thing, like a less of court vision passing feel,
Starting point is 00:26:39 more just like he needs to learn how to balance the flow of the game better. And I think he will. I think that, again, like him even just getting more reps will help him a lot in that specific situation. Defensively, I think he actually projects to be a better defender early in his career than AJ DeBonsa. He's just great physical traits and he's got a natural knack for positioning and like defensive aggression. So he gets a lot of like deflections and steals and things along those lines. He's been over two stocks per 36 minutes, which is always a really strong indicator. And he's actually been better in that area than AJ DeBonza this season. So again, those are like just my kind of initial scouts on those two guys. I'm going to try to watch them a lot more over the tail end of the season.
Starting point is 00:27:17 We will certainly have this debate again when we get to June. And I can't promise that we'll get to June and I won't be changing my mind and saying that I'll pick Darren Peterson number one. But if I had to make a pick right now, it's that basket attacking, the overall kind of like higher ceiling that I see with DeBonza that has me looking at him as number one. Lastly here, this was Jackson's idea and I thought it was kind of an interesting idea. If Cooper Flag was available in this year's draft, where would he land? Now, this gets complicated because we have more information. We have seen Cooper Flag become already a successful NBA player. I mean, we talked about it in yesterday's show, and his last six games, he's averaging over 30 points per game on like really high efficiency,
Starting point is 00:28:00 like Cooper's hooping his ass off. So like, there's like the, if you're looking at Cooper Flag as a prospect, as we saw him going into the draft. I think still he's on the same tier. Like I think that it would be Cooper, Darren, and AJ would be your three guys you'd be considering. Like I think he'd clearly be over Camboozer, for example. But I think based on what we knew last year, I think he's probably third.
Starting point is 00:28:27 But basing it off of what we know now and how it already translates, I think I'd put him second. I think I'd go AJ DeBonsa, then Cooper, then Darren Peterson. But again, all in the same. tier. These are extremely these are all extremely high level prospects. I don't think there's any sort of gap in any
Starting point is 00:28:44 direction between any of these three guys. Like even me picking AJ over Darren was a super tough decision for me because I just think they're both awesome, right? So like, but yeah, I think Cooper is very much in that tier, not separated from that tier in either direction based on what we saw out of the draft, maybe
Starting point is 00:29:00 third, based on what we know now, probably second. All right, guys, it's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely that you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. We'll be back tomorrow with our weekly mailbag. I will see you guys. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers.
Starting point is 00:29:22 I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.
Starting point is 00:29:32 We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
Starting point is 00:29:49 Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?
Starting point is 00:30:09 We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smike. and friends on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was hungry. You just understood.
Starting point is 00:30:34 That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come into you, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conky, his best friend, and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports.
Starting point is 00:31:07 And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

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