The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - How Giannis & Bucks spark NBA Playoffs run, will Jokic & Nuggets rise to occasion?
Episode Date: April 15, 2023Jason Timpf discusses what he will be watching for from Giannis Antetokounmpo's Milwaukee Bucks and Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Are both one-seeds primed for ...a deep postseason run, or does an early exit loom? Plus, Jason shares his predictions for Hawks-Celtics and Nets-76ers. Will Jayson Tatum and Joel Embiid's teams coast through the first round of the NBA Playoffs? #volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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The Volume.
All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at The Volume. Happy Friday, everybody. I hope
all of you guys had a great week. One last video before we head into the playoffs tomorrow,
I just logistically with me traveling out of the country tomorrow, I can't stay up late tonight
to wait for the playing games. So what I'm going to do is kind of similar to what I did with
the Celtics and Sixers yesterday.
I'm just going to focus on what I'll be looking for with the bucks and the nuggets in their first round series.
They're going to be massive favorites, no matter what, very, very likely to advance to the second round.
So the matchup doesn't matter so much as what I'll be looking for from these teams as they progress into tougher matchups into the future.
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your podcasts under hoops tonight. All right. So the Milwaukee Bucks, I expect the Bulls to win tonight,
but I'll be rooting for Miami, just because I think Miami from a matchup perspective should be
able to give the Bucks at least a little bit more of an entertaining series, but both teams are
going to get beat. In the season series, it was a two-two for both matchups. I'm going to be picking the
bucks in five regardless of who they face. Generally speaking, I'm going to go in five,
regardless of the advantage just because of home court and the NBA playoffs and teams riding that
wave to an upset win typically. As you guys noticed, the two sweeps I picked in the first round
or the nets and the clippers, teams that I view at a big disadvantage and that don't have a
great home court advantage to lean on to try to win a big game. A couple of things I'm going to be
looking for for the bucks as like indicators of them being prepped already.
for a long playoff run. Number one, how does Chris Middleton look?
We know this Bucks team is much better off the ball than they were last year, right?
Obviously, Chris Middleton being there after not being there,
regardless of what's going on with him in his ability to score,
he's going to be able to knock down open threes.
Javon Carter is shooting better than he did last year.
Joe Engels is shooting 41% from three in a Bucks uniform.
Jay Crowder's not the same physical presence that P.J. Tucker was a couple years ago,
but he's a better offensive player, in my opinion.
And the Bucks as a team are eighth in spot-up efficiency.
But why I'm looking at Chris Middleton is, you know, Boston's gotten a little bit better.
The reality is, this last year's series with the Celtics really came down to just a very
slight gap in half-court efficiency.
When the Celtics could keep the Bucks out of transition, they were a better team in the
half-court.
And like we've talked about all season long, obviously the spot-up shooting is a part of it,
but there are little things you can do to grind out additional points over the course of a game.
You know, I've always talked about the difference between like a 112 offensive rating
and a 117, 118 offensive rating, in many cases is shot making.
Having guys that can rescue possessions, late shot clock situations or late game situations
or a guy when a defense is perfect because at the end of a game,
a locked in defense is not going to give up anything easy,
you need guys who can make tough shots.
and that's what Chris Middleton does for this specific team.
That's going to be the difference between the bucks hoisting the trophy
and them losing somewhere on the way.
In my opinion, is going to be can Chris Middleton get 80% of where he was in that
2021 playoff series?
So he's got a month to get there, two full series,
because they're going to be heavy favorites in the first round and in the second round.
As much as I like that Nick's team that I'm picking to beat the Cavs,
and as much as I like the Cavs team, those two teams are not going to beat the
bucks in all likelihood. So they've got a month here to try to get him rounded into shape. He did tweak
his knee and he underwent an MRI, but it looks like he's going to play in game one, so that's good.
But I'm going to be really watching just the way his lift looks and how he's able to get separation
and just how he looks overall athletically in that first round series. Number two, can Joe Ingalls and
Jay Crowder contain on the perimeter? Specifically, I'm worried about this with Boston. Boston's going to
have the ability, especially when they go small with Al Horford, to pull Brooke Lopez away from
the rim and really attack them from a five-out standpoint. There's going to be lineups out there
where it's going to be Horford-Tatem Brown with like Marcus Martin, Malcolm Brogden, or Marcus
Martin, Derek White, or Derek White and Malcolm Brogden. And in those situations, like, conceding
corner threes to Al Horford is a fool's errand. And it's even possible that Milwaukee
he may even have to go small and put Janice at center in that case.
So because of that, the further Brooke Lopez is away from the basket, or if he's off the floor,
the more important it is to contain on the perimeter.
And Joe Ingalls, in his absolute athletic prime, was an excellent perimeter defender,
and so was Jay Crowder.
But both of those guys are a little bit on the other side of the hill.
And I think specifically with Ingalls,
Crowder could end up not playing much at all over the course this playoff run, we'll see.
But specifically with Ingalls, I think he's,
his second side shot creation, his ability to run action with the basketball in his hands,
and him being lights out from three, makes him an option that needs to be on the table as an
offensive adjustment. And he needs, in order for him to be playable, he can't be a target on the
other end of the floor. If he can't at least provide some resistance at the point of attack
if he gets switched onto a guard or against one of the Js for Boston, it could be a problem. So I'm
really going to be watching athletically just how Joe Ingalls in particular, but also a little bit of
Jay Crowder, how those two guys perform on the perimeter defensively. And last but not least,
how consistent will Drew Holiday be with his shot making? Last year in the playoffs, Drew Holiday went
for 20 plus five times. He had some big games, made some big shots. But he shot below 40% in seven of
the 12 games and had some nightmarishly poor shooting nights. And again, part of that is Chris Middle
being out, him being the only real secondary shot creator on that team. But Joe, uh,
Drew Holiday in general tends to be a little bit inconsistent with his shot making. And so I'm going to
be watching him just to see how efficient he is, how he can rein things back now that they have
Chris Middleton. Look at his shot selection. Drew Holiday has a tendency sometimes to just for no
particular reason take extremely difficult pull-up jump shots, almost as like a regular part of his
shot diet, which when you do that and you're a talented player, sometimes they go in and sometimes
they don't. Guys who are regularly efficient are guys that rely on extremely difficult
shot making only when they have to. It's a supplementary piece, not a core piece of their offense.
I'll be watching Drew Holiday. I do think that getting the one seed was big time for Milwaukee.
I talked a lot about this during the season, but they're going to be in a series where they're
heavily favored against the Cavs or Knicks team in the second round while Boston and Philly
are beating the shit out of each other, and that's a big advantage. So nice work from the
Bucks to fight for that one seed throughout the season. Denver.
I think, very similarly to what I said about the Bulls and Heat,
I think Minnesota is going to win tonight against the Thunder.
But I actually think the Thunder are the more dangerous team for the Nuggets
because of their aggregate offensive skill
and the trouble they can give to defenses that perform well statistically,
but have some personnel limitations.
Like the Pelicans we talked a lot about in this morning's show.
If you guys remember, I talked about how the Pelicans were third in defense,
or fourth in defense post deadlines, sixth in defense for the season,
but the thunder just lit them on fire because they spaced them out and drove and kicked them to death.
You know, in the playoffs, your base defensive scheme becomes less important
than your defensive versatility and the overall strength of your defensive personnel.
That's going to be an issue here with Denver.
Denver overall this season defensively wasn't good enough.
And one of the big reasons I didn't pick them out of the West is that in this tail end of the season,
they really let slip a lot of their habits on the defensive end of the season.
the floor and got sloppy as they kind of punted the last, you know, what, 20% of the season or whatever it was.
And the problem there is, is when you don't have outstanding defensive personnel, your details have to be extremely sharp.
My favorite example of this is the 2016 calves versus the 2017 calves.
That team did not have great defensive personnel.
Kyrie Irving is an average to below average defender.
J.R. Smith is an average to below average defender.
You know, Kevin Love is an average to below average defender. Tristan Thompson was only okay.
LeBron James and whoever they played at, like Richard Jefferson at the time,
were the only two really good defensive players on that team.
But as a team, they really worked hard during the season to dial up those defensive details,
and they finished as a top 10 defense in the regular season.
So when they got to the Golden State series, even though they got a little bit shell-shocked
at the beginning of the series, they were locked in enough to get the necessary amount of stops
for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving to carry them home offensively.
Then in 2017, they just said screw it and they stopped trying.
And the same defensive team that was so good in 2016 was really bad in 2017 with basically the same personnel.
And that's because habits matter so much more when you don't have great defensive personnel.
If you have excellent defensive personnel, at a certain point, you just flying around athletically is going to make a lot of things happen.
That's kind of the way I feel about Denver.
If you're going to have Nicola Yochich as a below average rim protector and you're going to have basically two
good defensive players in your best lineup, which is basically Aaron Gordon and Contavius
Caldwell Pope, you have three entry points there. So the only way that's going to work is if all
five of those guys are just dialed in and locked in throughout the entire season working on those
details so they're ready to go when the time comes. And that's just not what they did this year.
That was a big part of why I did not pick them out of the West. The Thunder in particular are going
to force them to guard in a way that goes away from their defensive scheme, as opposed to
Minnesota is going to allow them to stay in a lot of the coverages that they used throughout
the regular season. So Denver fans should absolutely be rooting for Minnesota tonight.
That said, regardless of who they face, even with those limitations, I still would pick them
in five over both of these teams. If the nuggets get exposed offensively, it'll be by Phoenix
in the next round. But that's step one of what I'm going to be watching in this first round series.
How locked in is Denver going to be on the defensive details? Because this is
is basically a two-week practice. You're going to get probably five games, four or five games here,
maybe six if you're not sharp enough, but you're going to get two weeks here to sharpen up your
defense and try to undo the damage that you did during the regular season. I'd almost treat it like a
training camp in that regard. But they're going to have to be sharp or they're going to get beat by
Phoenix. So I'm going to be watching their defense at all three levels in this series to see how
dedicated they are to tightening those things up. Nicoliochich, how high is he willing to come
out of his drop because he's going to have to come high out of his drop to have any hope of defending
against the Phoenix Suns. When he does so, can he do so effectively? How active is he overall
defensively sprinting back in transition and covering ground on the floor? How active is Jamal Murray
at the point of attack? Is he up to that challenge? I know Contavius Caldwell Pope is up to the
challenge. I know Aaron Gordon's going to be up to the challenge as a help defender and as a
primary wing defender, but is Jamal Murray up to the challenge as a point of attack defender? Is Michael
Porter Jr. up to the challenge as a help defender. Are they going to have to go with options
like Bruce Brown because of defensive limitations that takes away from their offensive ceiling?
Those are the kinds of things that I'm going to be paying very close attention to in that first
round series. Number two, Jamal Murray's shot making. It's been a very up and down season for him.
Not his fault necessarily. First chunk of the season, he's working his way back from a knee
injury. Second chunk of the season, he had some brief stretches where his knee kind of flared up a little bit.
so I'm not blaming him per se,
but the reality is,
is if the Nuggets are going to get out of the Western Conference
and have a chance to win an NBA championship,
they need Jamal Murray to play at a super,
like not a superstar, but an all-star level.
They need him to efficiently average 23, 24 points per game.
So I'm going to be watching him and how he looks athletically.
Two more things.
Yokic's aggression when his teammates are missing.
One of the things that I've been critical of Yokic this year
is some of that early LeBron stuff
where he's playmaking to death.
but there are some times when like your team just doesn't have it.
And you're Nicola Dam Yochich.
You're one of the top five players in the league.
You need to go make something happen off the bounce.
And said there have been a couple of games this year where I've seen him kind of continue to pass.
And I'm really going to be watching him, especially on nights when his teammates are not making shots to see if he steps up his level of aggression.
And last but at least, the bench.
The bench has been a huge issue for the Nuggets all season long.
The Thomas Bryan acquisition has not worked.
Reggie Jackson has been really inconsistent since he came aboard.
they're going to have to play the starter's big minutes and do some more staggering to bolster that bench unit,
or they could be in some trouble there as well. But either way, I'm picking the bucks and the nuggets to win in five. So,
again, predictions are just predictions. Probably going to get a certain amount of them right,
probably going to get a certain amount of them wrong. That's just the nature of the business. I'm sure I'll be made.
I'm sure I'll have people crying about it. My mentions no matter what, but that's just life.
Final predictions, though. I have the bucks winning their first round series.
in five games, Celtics in five games, sixers in four games, Knicks in six games.
Out in the Western Conference, I have the Nuggets in five games.
I have the Lakers beating the Grizzlies in six games.
I have the Warriors beating the Kings in six games, and I have the Suns sweeping the Clippers.
As of right now, I have the Golden State Warriors coming out of the West,
the Bucks coming out of the East, and the Bucks hoisting the trophy when it's all said and done.
I don't see any point in going down with the ship.
With every passing new piece of information that we get,
I am going to tell you what my new opinion is.
And maybe at the end of the day, it'll still be Bucks Warriors.
But I'm going to react to new information.
And so after the first round, we'll kind of circle back to those topics
and see where we stand at that point.
All right, really quickly, before we get out of here,
I'm going to do quick hitters on Hoc Celtics.
So, or Hoc Celtics and Net Sixers.
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on these series
because I expect them to be over quickly.
the issue specifically, like, again, we, I'm going out of town on Saturday morning,
and I'm going to be arriving at our destination in Canada at like 11.30 p.m.
So we're still covering the playoffs, but I'm losing my entire day Saturday,
and it's actually going to bleed into Sunday morning.
We're going to do like a quick instant reaction on Saturday night,
and then we're going to do a much more in-depth reaction on Sunday morning after I get some sleep.
but we don't know the 1-8 matchups until tomorrow evening.
I'm going to have a really short video that I'll release tomorrow,
but I'm not going to spend a ton of time diving into these 1-8 matchups
or the Celtics Sixers series,
just because they're just such big favorites.
Like the Celtics are a minus-12 favorite,
and the Sixers are a minus 1,000 favorite, 10-to-1 odds.
So I'm not going to spend a half-hour breaking down those particular series.
But I'll give you some quick notes.
So on the Hawk Sixers, the Celtics are a gigantic favorite.
like I said, minus 1,200.
They swept the season series.
In March, they had a game in Atlanta.
They played more recently than that, but everyone rested.
In March, they played in Atlanta.
I watched that game this morning, the entire thing.
Oh, my God, it was an eyesore.
There was no defense from either team out the gates.
Finally, in the second half, Boston started switching everything and started locking in
defensively, and they immediately generated some separation and pulled away.
But there are a couple of specific things.
Atlanta did have some success on the offensive glass.
Trey Young had a lot of success getting to his spots.
They guarded Jalen Brown with Dejante Murray,
and they guarded Jason Tatum with DeAndre Hunter.
I do think that that's a specific set of matchups
that they'll have to tinker with a little bit.
I'm picking the Celtics to win this series in five games.
They're just better on both ends of the floor by mile,
and they're athletic enough, I think,
when they really lock in to survive Atlanta's offensive rebound attack.
However, that's step one to an Atlanta upset.
guys like John Collins, Cucapela, and Yenka Ocongu have to absolutely destroy them on the
offensive glass. Obviously, Trey Young and Dejante Murray need to have a massive series.
I would consider going away from John Collins early in the series and playing Sadiq Bay heavily.
For two reasons. One, I think that is a better matchup for Jalen Brown and putting
Sadiq Bay and Dianjadre Hunter on the two Boston Celtics wings. You free up DeJante Murray,
to save his legs for the offensive end of the floor,
although those Boston guards are always looking to attack too,
but it's a little bit more of a straightforward matchup.
And then also with the amount of switching that Boston will do,
close out attacking is going to be vitally important.
Like Trey Young and DeJante Murray just getting a little bit of dribble penetration
and kicking and then having guys like Sadiq Bay extend the advantage,
having guys like DeAndre Hunter extend the advantage.
Atlanta did not have good spacing in the game that I watched earlier today.
That is something they've gotten a lot better at over the course of the end
the season. So I think they might have a little bit more success there. But it's just from a talent
perspective, they're just overmatched in this series, especially once you go past the starting
lineup. For the Celtics, things that I'll be watching, is their defense as sharp as it was last
year in the postseason? They came in locked in defensively against Brooklyn. They need to defend at
that level to win the title. I'll be watching that very closely. Secondly, are they going to make good
rim decisions? Clint Capella runs a drop coverage for the Hawks. He's going to be around the rim.
probably most of the series, unless they go small with Al Horford, and even then,
they'll probably concede those shots to try to keep Capella at the rim and try to rotate around
him. And it's going to be vitally important, not just for this series, but as a process thing as
they go forward into the rest of the postseason, for Boston to look to drive and kick
and not necessarily challenge Capella at the rim all series long, which is typically what causes
them to miss layups and give up transition opportunities. So rim decisions I'm going to be watching,
and is their defense as sharp as it was to start last year in the postseason?
net sixers. The sixers are minus 1,000 favorite. They swept the season series 4-0,
including 2-0 after the trades. They had a close win in Brooklyn, and then they beat the hell out of
them a different time. I'm picking the Sixers to sweep this series. The nets are 23rd in defense,
or in offense post-trades to be expected. Guys like Mikhail Bridges are, you know, they can put up
numbers, they can score efficiently, but they don't attack the rim enough or play-make enough
to be like a really well-rounded offensive engine.
And then Spencer Dinwiddie has a ceiling to what he can do,
especially as series get more physical.
He really struggled last year in the postseason,
especially finishing around the rim.
So it's not a big surprise that their offense has fallen off.
But here's the big thing.
They loaded up on wings,
and this kind of goes back to what I was talking about earlier
with New Orleans and with Toronto.
But they loaded up on wings and they can't guard.
They are 17th in defense post-deadline.
And that goes back to what I was talking about,
about balancing point of attack defense
with length and athleticism on the wing.
They have no hope of guarding Joelle Embed.
I think Spencer Dinwoodie,
Mikhail Bridges, and Cam Johnson
are going to struggle to generate quality shots.
And they don't have much of a home court advantage.
It's like I've only picked two sweeps in the first round
and it's the clippers and the nets.
And it's because you generally would say in five,
but you usually get that big upset win in game three or game four
because of a raucous home crowd in a high energy environment.
The clippers in the nets probably have the two,
worst home court advantages of any serious basketball teams in the NBA, except for maybe the
Miami Heat. But even the Miami Heat, they show up late to the game, but they'll get
invested in a real way once they finally make their way to their seats whenever that actually
happens. The other thing, too, Nick Claxton is just going to allow Joel Embed to hang out
at the rim. The biggest susceptibility in the Philly defense is if you can get Embed on the
perimeter, he's not good at containing driving, like slashing. Toronto had a lot of success
slashing by him last year.
And I just, with Nick Claxton out there,
I just don't think that's going to be an option.
Here's the path of victory for the Nets,
the very slim path to victory.
They need to double the hell out of Joe L. Embed
and tighten up their rotations over the course of the series.
They need to leave James Hardin on an island
and turn him into a score.
They need to get back in transition
to make sure Tyrese max doesn't get those easy runouts.
And they need to completely ignore PJ Tucker
and pray to God that he misses every shot
that he takes out of the corner.
On offense, just spread them out.
Spread them out as much as you can.
Take advantage of their weak perimeter defense by driving and kicking them to death.
There are spacing concepts within four out one in.
You do the best you can to keep guys like Dorian Finney Smith in one corner as an easy outlet at any given moment.
And maybe you go high on offensive skill and play Cam Johnson and Spencer Dinwiddie
because of the a little bit of undersized Philly back court that doesn't play a lot of defense
and doesn't do a ton of dirty work.
And you put McHale Bridges in the other corner.
Yeah, you're going to have to navigate and beat around the rim,
but you put Claxton into a position where he can catch and dunk really quick.
He's also excellent offensive rebounder.
And you just overload on offensive skill and take advantage of Philly's lack of perimeter defense.
But it's extremely unlikely.
Things I'll be watching from Philly.
How engaged is James Harden in the physicality of the playoffs in both ends of the floor?
Like, is he ready for a damn war?
Because this is going to be a war.
Not necessarily this series, but next series is going to be a damn war against the Boston Celtics.
And Boston is going to do everything they can to make him feel uncomfortable.
And if he just tries to do the James Hardin thing where he kind of floats his way through the games,
they're going to lose pretty quick.
So I'm really going to be watching James Hardin and his overall competitive energy.
How well does Joel Embed handle double teams?
I think this is going to be a good sample of it.
against the Nets, and I think you're going to see it a lot against the Sixers.
Joel and B. destroyed, or excuse me, against the Celtics.
Joel and B. destroyed the Celtics the last time they played when they left him in single
coverage, and then they started doubling him at the end of the game, and he made some good reads
to P.J. Tucker, I think it'll be very important for him to demonstrate a capable handling of
double teams in order to win a championship. And last but not least, fill these weakness in
their defense is perimeter defense. So I just want to look at guys like Tyrus Maxine, James Hardin,
and just how, like, I just want to see how locked in they are in their ability to contain the
basketball, because especially against Boston, when the matchups work out, you know, you're going
to see De Anthony Melton guarding one of Taiton, Tatum or Brown, right? You're going to see,
or you're going to see Tobias Harris and PJ Tucker guard one of Tatum or Brown. A lot of
DeAnthony Melton, too, when they go to, when they took, put PJ Tucker on the bench.
But like, Derek White's going to be out there. Marcus Smart's going to be out there. Malcolm
Brogden's going to be out there. And guys like Tyree Smack.
and James Harden are going to have to slide their feet.
And in that particular game, Derek White and the one I mentioned where Joel and Bede went off,
Derek White and Malcolm Brogden did a lot of damage to them.
So it's something I'll be keeping an eye on.
All right, guys, that's all I have for today.
We'll have one last video before the playoffs.
Late tomorrow night, just a quick little breakdown of the 1-8 matchups.
Won't spend that video will be like 10, 15 minutes.
I'm not going to invest a ton of energy in massive favorite playoff series like that.
But guys, right around the corner, two days.
We are going to be in the grind.
I'm very, very excited. I thought the playing tournament was super entertaining, a nice little
teaser for what we're getting into. Tons of you guys supported the show over the course of this week,
and I can't tell you how much I appreciate. I've been looking at some of our year-over-year growth
from February to March and April, and it's been really, really cool to see this show grow,
and I have you guys to thank for that. So thank you guys for supporting me and the rest of the team.
And, hey, let's have some fun over the next couple of months.
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