The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Is Chris Paul enough to bring Steph Curry and Draymond Green back to NBA Finals?

Episode Date: July 7, 2023

Jason Timpf breaks down the Golden State Warriors offseason moves to try and get Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson back to the NBA Finals. The Warriors added Chris Paul in a trade that sent Jordan Poole to the Washington Wizards, added veteran point guard Cory Joseph, and drafted power forward Trayce Jackson-Davis out of Indiana as well. Is this enough to get the Warriors back over the hump? #volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On The Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me.

I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard,

but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. The volume. Make sure you guys check out the new Netflix series quarterback

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Happy Thursday, everybody. I hope all of you guys have had a great week so far and that you enjoyed your holiday. Today is Golden State Warriors Day. We're just going to take a zoom in on their offseason. We're going to do a recap of all the changes to the roster. We're going to do scouting reports on Trace Jackson Davis and Corey Joseph. And then at the end, I'm going to kind of just tie bow on everything by talking about whether or not I think the Warriors got materially better in the process.

You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT. So you guys don't miss any show announcements. And if for whatever reason you guys missed one of these videos and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish, don't forget you can find them wherever you get your podcast under hoops tonight. All right. So quick recap of the offseason, they drafted Brandon Podzamski. I did a scouting report on him on the day after the draft that you guys can find further back on the feeds.

I also broke down his first summer league game the other day. You can find that on the feeds as well. To make a long story short, I think he's going to be a great fit in their offense. He's awesome at advantage creation basketball attacking closeouts, generating dribble penetration, not with overwhelming speed or quickness, but just with basketball IQ and weaponizing his shot fake and his ability to score in the midrange. And I also have been really impressed with his passing ability so far. as I've been scouting him.

I think he's a big upgrade over Dante DiVincenzo offensively, although I do think he's a downgrade over Dante DeVincenzo on the defensive end of the floor. They also drafted Trace Jackson Davis at the end of the second round. Really interesting player. I enjoyed scouting him this morning. I'm going to do a full breakdown of that here in just a minute. They also traded Jordan Poole for Chris Paul, as you guys know, and they signed Corey Joseph for a veteran minimum contract in addition to resigning

Draymond Green for four years, $100 million. That was something that absolutely. had to happen. As I've said, so many times on this show, Denver's the exception. Just because they managed to win without a top-tier defensive front line, doesn't mean that you can't. They are the exception that proves that rule. As you go back through NBA history, you don't win unless you have a dominant defensive front line. Dramon Green himself has fortified that line four times in his career. He is the one player, him and Steph, are the players that you cannot give up without losing your championship ceiling. So I thought that was the right move to really.

he signed Draymond Green. We will do a quick scouting report on Corey Joseph here in a minute as well. All they lost is Dante DiVincenzo for the four-year, $50 million contract that he signed with the New York Knicks. Just got priced out. There's literally no way the Warriors could have retained him at that number. All right, let's do a quick scout of Trace Jackson Davis. Got a hell of a pedigree. He was Mr. Basketball in Indiana in 2019.

He was a McDonald's All-American. He was a two-time Big Ten all-defense selection, and he was a kid. consensus first team All-American last year. His measurements is a lefty, six-foot, eight, and a quarter without shoes. That means he'll be like a legit six-nine in shoes. It's a seven-one wing span, which makes up for some of his lack of height. And he weighs 240 pounds, so he's not overly thin by any stretch of the imagination. He's also a grown adult.

He will turn 24 this season. So he's two years older than Moses Moody. He's three years older than Jonathan Cominga. And he's been playing grown-up basketball in a winning context for four seasons at a quality program. So you're not getting a kid, you're getting a young man. And I do think that that gives him a much better chance of being a useful rotation player for the Warriors next year. Last season, he averaged 21 and 11 on 58% shooting, 2.9 blocks per game. Here's some data from play types on Synergy. He did most of his work out of the post.

He ran 375 post-ups and scored 392 points, including passes. That is 1.05 points per possession. there were 70 players in NCAA Division 1 basketball who logged at least 200 post-ups last year. Trace ranked 16th in points per possession. So he's a very successful, very efficient, high-volume post-up player at that level. He primarily liked to work from the right block and to try to get to his left hand hook over his right shoulder in the lane. He shot 41% on hooks overall, a higher percentage about 45% when he was going from that right block into the middle of the floor. He also handled double teams really well. He's patient.

the kill pass instead of just trying to get rid of the basketball. Now, the Warriors are obviously not going to spam Trace Jackson Davis post-ups, but it gives them a weapon to potentially attack switches. I also thought he demonstrated a lot of good stuff in ISO. He ran 39 ISOs and face-ups that led to 47 points. It is a really nice job when there's a smaller defender on him of protecting the basketball and turning his back. Because again, when you're a bigger player, when you dribble the basketball, the ball's traveling longer to the ground back up to your hand every time. And so smaller players will swipe down at the basketball. You never want to expose the basketball when you have a size advantage. You want to protect the basketball. So you turn your back

and you pivot and you get to where you want to go and you take a shot over the top. Then when you have a slower, bigger defender in front of you, that's when you can expose the basketball and use your quickness because they're not going to be able to attack that dribble pocket as well. Trace does a really nice job of identifying what his advantage is and adjusting his attack accordingly. I actually clipped three examples of Trace working out of isolations and put it on my Twitter feed. So go to underscore Jason LT and you guys will see some examples of I picked a fake spin move that he did that I think will be a really interesting example of what he can do in fake dribble handoff situations to try to get downhill when he's, you know, got Steph Curry or Clay Thompson coming

off of a dribble handoff. And then I showed an example of him bullying a smaller player to the basket and him beating a slower, a bigger player to the basket with his quickness, with a hardcore in-and-out crossover going back to his right hand. So again, you guys can find those clips on my Twitter feed. Also, in the ISO clips that I watched, he's just a really good passer. His ability to identify where the defense is warping to him and hit shooters and cutters really impressed me on film. I really think that he has a chance to be a usable role player for this Warriors team.

He was also a solid role man. He averaged 1.1.1 points per possession. Seems kind of low. But if you watch the tape, like I did this morning, you'll notice that he just gets absolutely swarmed on all those role man possessions because he's their best player. So it's not like he's rolling into open space the way that he will with the Warriors. He was rolling into a crowd.

And when he's with the Warriors, he's going to be rolling into open space. So I'm excited to see him operate there. In terms of his shooting touch, he's a non-shooter. He was 3 for 14 on jump shots last year. So super low volume, super low percentage. so that's not going to be a factor, at least not yet. Also shot just under 70% on free throws. So that demonstrates that he doesn't have the greatest touch in the world

in terms of future projections as a jump shooter, but you don't need to be a good jump shooter to be a role player big in the NBA. He has no floater. He shot 7 for 24 on floaters on the season. Does have a decent hook shot, though, 41%. So touch is not his strength of his, but I actually do think he dribbles the ball pretty well.

So I think with the quality of shots, he's going to be getting around the paint and with his ability to dribble and pass, I think he's actually going to be a really successful role man for the Warriors. Now, his rim finishing was lower than you would expect. He only shot about 65% there, but it's complicated because he took a lot of really tough shots at the rim at a post-up situation. He was much higher percentage when he was operating as a cutter out of the dunker spot.

He was 71% in those situations. That, to me, is a more realistic representation of where his rim finishing will come with the Warriors. He's not going to be posting up and shooting in traffic. it's going to be him attacking out of the short roll or coming out of the corner as Draymond's rolling down the middle of the floor, catching and dunking at the basket. He also had 73 dunks last year, which is over two a game. He's really, really springy, has the ability to go up out of any footwork and quickly. He's got a good second jump.

So I think his athleticism actually makes up for some of his size limitations. Now, on the defense event, he was two-time all defense in the Big Ten, his last two years, average 2.9 blocks per game. But the reality is that 6-8 in the quarter without shoes on, he's probably too small to be like a dominant drop coverage big in the NBA. But I do think he's going to be a successful switching big. There were 18 possessions last year where guys tried to ISO Jackson Davis in switches, and he only gave up eight points in those situations.

One of three of those points was a bomb three against Miami in the NCAA tournament that he contested really well and it just went in. So he defended really well in switches. Honestly, he gets beat off the dribble a lot in those situations, but he does that LeBron thing where he kind of like gets beat, but then just recovers and swats you. He has a really good idea of identifying where you're going to shoot from, and then he just sprints to that spot and recovers.

Even if it's on the other end of the rim, you'll see plays where he gets beat, and then the guy goes to the reverse, and he just comes up on the other side of the rim and smacks it off the glass. He had a bunch of blocks in those situations as well. I think he has the potential to be a plus defender in the NBA, even with his physical tools.

So what does that translate to? I think he has real potential to be a rotation big man for that. You know, if you really think about what like a guy like Mason Plumley can do as a bench big making $5 million a year in the NBA for a team like the Clippers, how big of a gap is there really compared to what someone like Trace Jackson Davis can do in a different context and more of a switching context and more of a jumping context instead of like a big size and strength type of context. So I do think that he has potential.

It's not a guarantee. We'll see how it plays out on the floor, but I do think that that was the ideology that the Warriors were going with. Late second round picks, you're not using any assets. You're not going to have to pay him a ton of money. But hey, throw him out there. He's 24 years old. He's got a lot of basketball experience playing in a winning context. Let's see if he can help us as a bench big. I thought that was a really smart move from the Warriors front office. Corey Joseph, he was backup point guard for the Pistons last year, played 62 games, average seven points and four assists. Play type data slightly below average in pick and roll. He's 0.9 4 points per possession, but you do got to factor in there that he's playing with the pistons. He's got a lot of young unpolished players that he's passing to, which is going to hurt those numbers a little bit.

And then obviously the spacing is not great. He did average 1.16 points per possession in spot up situations, which is excellent. If you zoom in on the shot types, he shot 41% on catch and shoot jump shots, 61% when you wait that for threes. 45% on unguarded catch-and-shoot jump shots, which is 68% weighted for threes. And then 35% on pull-up jump shots, 44% weighted for threes.

So when it comes to jump-shooting and catch-and-shoot situations, he's deadly, and then he's capable in pull-up jump-shooting situations. It's 41% on floaters. That'll be useful. And then he shot 60% at the rim, which is awesome for a small guard. All I look at that as is it adds depth. You basically flipped Jordan Poole and Dante D.

Vincenzo, two guards, a lead guard who's pretty inconsistent in Jordan Poole, for Chris Paul, Brandon Podzemsky, and Corey Joseph, a much more dependable, at least not necessarily in terms of injury availability, but at least in terms of performance with Chris Paul. And then Brandon Podzemsky and Corey Joseph, you've got kind of like a veteran option you can go to, and then you've got this young player with a lot of upside that you can, you know, play when he's playing well and sit when he's not playing well and go with someone like Corey Joseph instead. It just gives you more depth for when Steph Curry misses games. So I like the Guard Corps at this point. Taking a look at the depth chart, the Guard Corps is Steph Curry, Chris Paul, Gary Payton II, Corey Joseph, and Brandon Podzems.

Their forwards, Clay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kaminga, and Moses Moody, and their Biggs, Draymond Green, Kavan Looney, and Trace Jackson Davis, and maybe they'll sign someone like Dario Sarage. As you start to look at the archetypes, it kind of makes a lot of sense. You've got an excellent top-tier point-of-attack defender and Gary Payton II. You have an excellent wing defender and Andrew Wiggins. Both of those guys are top tier at their positions. Jonathan Caminga showed a lot in terms of kind of being like Andrew Wiggins' light as an option to throw in perimeter defense situations. Clay Thompson did not have a good playoff run last year, but the year before, he had a lot of moments as a wing defensive player. Obviously,

Moses Moody had some moments in the Lakers series as a wing defensive player and as a guy who was making some corner threes. So they fill all of the necessary perimeter defense responsibilities. And then obviously in the front court, you can't do much better. than Dramong Green and Kavana Looney. They're a championship defensive front court and have done so four times. So really, to me, it comes down to depth. So that brings us to our question, did the Warriors do enough? I think they considerably improved within the postseason context. Why? Because Chris Paul is a massive upgrade over Jordan Pool. He just is. Jordan Pool is super inconsistent. The playoff run he had in 2022, obviously it's cemented in stone. He's a champion. But it's

very uncommon for a young player to play that well on that stage. What happened last year is a better representation of what most young guards do in a playoff setting. Chris Paul, again, as long as he can stay healthy, is going to be a more dependable option there. And he's going to give the Warriors a better chance of maintaining leads with Steph off the floor. Remember, they were like plus 47 with Steph on the floor in last year's playoffs in like minus 49 with him off the floor. So they had a negative point differential because they struggled so much when Steph was off the floor. Chris Paul gives you a better chance to fight in those situations.

Also, as you can imagine, in a setting where you have to fall back on pick and roll because Anthony Davis is lingering in the paint and they're taking away all of your motion offense stuff, having Chris Paul is another option to run pick and rolls is an advantage. You can imagine even with step off the floor, a lineup with like Chris Paul, Clay Thompson, and Kvon Luni, just setting really hard screens to get Chris Paul open, drawing those multiple defenders or giving him wide open pull-up 15 footers that are generating those close-out opportunities for Clay Thompson, so Clay Thompson doesn't have to constantly attack a set defense at his age when Steph is off the floor. So I do think it improves their

ceiling in the postseason context. But I am still worried about their ability to make it through an 82 game season without running into similar problems that they ran into last year. If you remember, after the season, I said they really needed to find a veteran forward that they could slot between Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green. Why? Because their size ended up being an issue for them on the road in particular last year. They could make up for it fighting with the energy of their home crowd, and they were an elite defense and rebounding team at home, but that fell to pieces when they went on the road.

And so having a veteran presence at the forward spot, I thought would have been a better use of the Jordan Poole contract in order to give them a better chance of thriving in the physicality of those environments on the road. That said, that doesn't mean they don't have the same playoffs ceiling. It's more of a regular season problem. in my opinion. I do think when push comes to shove, their best lineup is going to be some combination of Draymond Gray and Andrew Wigg and Steph Curry, Clay Thompson, and I don't know if Chris Paul is going to make them too small or not,

but at the end of the day, they're going to have the ability and flexibility to potentially trade for that type of player when they get closer to the deadline. Did they have a backup center? No, unless it's Trace Jackson Davis, which means, once again, like last year, they're in a predicament where the developmental trajectory of their young play. players is going to play a huge role in what this team is capable of accomplishing. Because again, if you didn't get that forward to slot between Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green, that means it's got to be Trace Jackson Davis, Moses, Moody, Jonathan Camingo, one of those guys. Or are they going to be ready yet?

I don't know. And that's going to be the story of this particular season. Because remember, that combination of older guys that are trying to find opportunities to conserve energy during the 82 game season and younger players that are two ineastern. experience to consistently play well on the road, put them in the predicament where they couldn't win games on the road last year. So what I liked about a veteran forward is it adds depth so that these guys can conserve energy but still have enough and have more consistency compared to the up and down nature of young basketball players in the NBA. So again, like they have been getting a lot

of reps. Jonathan Camilla in particular got a lot of reps last year. Moses Moody got more postseason reps in this particular postseason run against the Lakers. And then again, Trace Jackson Davis is older than those guys and has been playing winning basketball for a while. So if one of those guys develops into that piece, then they won't have to make a trade. But once again, they could find themselves in a position where they're hovering around 500 at the deadline and need to make a significant move to upgrade the front line because I'm not sure if they have the depth to make it all work.

Now, maybe Dario Sarich helps enough there, but I don't think he's athletic enough necessarily to dominate consistently in the physical environments they'll need him to on the road. There's also the Jordan Poole element. How much of their road struggles last year came down to chemistry? You know, when you're on the road, you're traveling with your teammates all the time.

When you're at home, you go home to your family. And so when you show up to the arena, you're in a better mood. But on the road, it's like you're stuck with your teammates the whole time. And so if there's a chemistry beef, and I don't know the details. I don't know if Jordan Poole and Draymond Green

still had issues that late in the season. but I don't know how much, like if Jordan Poole and the relationship with Dremont had an adverse effect on their road situation, getting Jordan Poole out of the situation might help as well with their chemistry and their ability to bring good basketball away from Chase Center. So to take a long story short, I think that they're still in a predicament for the regular season and they could end up fighting for playoff position again all season, which could be a problem. But I do think they considerably improved with improved within the postseason. context because of the Chris Paul acquisition. And then again, push comes to shove,

maybe you can flip those young players at this deadline for that particular type of Ford that you're looking for. All right, guys, that is all I have for today. Tomorrow, I am traveling to Vegas for Summer League. Don't forget to come say hi while I'm out there. We have shows scheduled for Saturday and Sunday night that we're recording at the Blue Wire Studio there at the win in Vegas. Don't forget to come say hi. Like I said, I'll be sitting in the the arena watching games for the most part. I also plan I'm playing some pickup basketball while I'm there too. I'll tweet out the locations that I'm going to.

So I hope to see you this weekend. If not, then I'll see you guys on YouTube on Saturday night. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On The Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me.

84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.

It was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.