The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Jimmy Butler drops 56 to lift Heat over Bucks, are Giannis & Milwaukee done?

Episode Date: April 26, 2023

Jason Timpf reacts to Jimmy Butler's 56-point performance in the Miami Heat's 119-114 Game 4 win over Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Jason breaks down Butler's incredible night, whether Milwaukee will still win the series, and the major defensive move the Bucks must make. #volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.

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How do you cash back? So last night, like I promised, I didn't get a chance to break down Pete Bucks. And I wanted to kind of rewatch the film to see if there was anything specific that stood out to me that was problematic. for the Bucks. Got a chance to do that this morning. So this morning, we're just going to focus on the current predicament that the number one overall seed, the Milwaukee Bucks find themselves in, as well as Jimmy Butler, and yet another magnificent playoff performance. You guys know the Joe, before we get started, subscribe to the volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT. And if for whatever reason, you guys

miss one of these shows and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish, don't forget you can find then wherever you get your podcast under hoops tonight. All right, let's talk some basketball. So, you know, I have these overarching basketball philosophies that I talk about a lot on this show. And one of the big ones, and you guys have probably seen this in the way that I rank players. But generally speaking, when I've ranked players, like in our big player rankings that we did this summer, I've had centers pretty far down the list, right?

Like, I got a lot of people mad at me because I had Yolkich and Mb at. seven and eight on my list this summer, although I probably have both of them a little higher now, but there's a reason why I felt that way. Most of the guards around the league, I have pretty far down my list, with exception of Steph Curry, who's literally the biggest guard anomaly in NBA history. When you're ranking all-time great NBA players, it's a bunch of forwards and centers, and Steph Curry. He's the outlier that kind of proves the rule, so to speak. but the guys that I typically have at the top of the list, typically, are bigger, stronger players that are either,

that either have a physical advantage in height or a physical advantage in strength, that can score from every spot on the floor, can do so on and off the ball, and can create shots for their teammates consistently. That's always the type of player that I have up there. That's why I've always thought very highly of LeBron James. That's why I've always thought very highly of Luca Donchich. That's why I've thought very highly of Kevin Durant over the years.

That's why I've always thought very highly of Janice and Tenacumpo. That specific archetype of player has always been the guy that I think is most valuable in the NBA, especially when you get to the postseason. Jimmy Butler is an interesting kind of case study on that conversation, because for whatever reason, he's never been considered in that echelon, and it really just comes down to regular season production. Like Jimmy made a joke last night. He's like, I, you know, playoff, Jimmy's not really a thing.

I'd just be hooping. Well, yeah, but there's a gap. The reality is, is Jimmy goes from being somewhere around the 15th best player in the league during the regular season, and then you put him in a playoff series, and he can play just as well as the best players in the league. That was an unbelievable performance last night. One of the best playoff performances I have ever seen. to really think about it to rank that sort of thing. Maybe that's something we could do over the

summer. But, you know, for whatever reason, like, that that's just a level that he can reach at that stage that a lot of his peers can't. And like I said, it's not the first time. I think he had 240-point games in the 2020 NBA finals last year against the Celtics and the conference finals had a bunch of big games, surrounded by some bad games, but he was dealing with some injuries. but he had some big games, including having a three that could have sent them to the NBA finals. Now, if you ask me, Jason, why is it that you think that Jimmy is able to elevate his game on this stage in a way that some of his peers can't? I think generally speaking, that archetype of player has success elevating their game. I think you consistently see the Luca Donchich types, the LeBron James types, the Kevin Durant types, the Janus types, the Quayleynards, the Jimmy Butler's, those big forwards.

that have a great mix of offensive skill and playmaking and physical advantages, you see that player go up a level because that is the most valuable. And there's a bunch of specific reasons why. First of all, it is much more difficult to account for a star player from the standpoint of defensive attention with a live dribble 25 feet from the basket than it is operating closer to the rim, where everything's generally more contested. Point being, it's easier to double a yokech or an environment.

beat effectively than it is to do so with a guy with a live dribble operating from the perimeter. And when you combine the fact that he can hit pull-up jump shots, and like here's the deal, like Jimmy Butler shot 28% on pull-up threes this year. And generally speaking in his career, that's been a shot he's been super inefficient at. But like he just has the ability to, I don't, through sheer force of will, maybe? I don't know. But for whatever reason, he just suddenly has the ability to knock that type of shot down when the stage is big. Is that specific jump shooting dynamic kind of reminds me of Dwayne Wade? Dwayne Wade was another guy that was a really inconsistent jump shooter.

But man, in big playoff games, he always just seemed to make some big ones. I think confidence is a huge part of jump shooting. And I think guys like that that are filled with an unwavering sense of confidence seem to be in a rhythm more frequently than other players do. Confidence is a big part of rhythm, but for whatever reason, they're just able to dig down and make those shots. And why that's important is, again, like what makes Jimmy Butler such a devastating playoff player, in my opinion, is a combination of a bunch of factors. One, he has legitimate three-level scoring on that stage. Regardless of whether or not he has it in the regular season, he has it on this stage.

He can hit pull-up threes off the bounce. He can hit jab-step threes when you play off of him. When he gets lower in pick-and-roll, he can hit pull-up 15-15. footers. He can hit floaters in the lane. He can finish in traffic at the rim. He can draw fouls effectively. You put a smaller defender on him. He can put Drew Holiday on his backside and back him down and hit post-up fadeaways over both shoulders or hook shots over both shoulders. He's got great footwork. He can play off the ball in transition. Duckins under the rim. He's got a lot of that LeBron James like, oh, I got a smaller defender on me. Let me just duck in real quick and call for the

basketball, I'm going to get a basket or a foul. And then when you combine that with his playmaking, which has always been a super underrated element of his skill set, it suddenly turns him into one of the most effective playoff players that we have in the league. He's also just a big, strong athlete. Generally speaking, players that thrive in physicality end up going up a level when we get to the postseason. I don't think it's a coincidence that Austin Reeves, for instance, is succeeding

in the postseason. He's a player that plays with a great deal of physicality in the regular season. LeBron James and Anthony Davis, big strong athletes, their skill sets have almost completely abandoned them in this playoff series when it comes down to jump shooting and beating people off the dribble and things like that. But they're just big and strong. And they can have a great deal of impact there. Jimmy Butler is a player that thrives in physicality. So his impact goes up a level. I don't know why it is that it's not there in the regular season. I don't know if It's just, and for the record, Jimmy's a great regular season player. He's just not, you know, 27, 7 and 7, which is generally what you get from the other big forward

superstars in the league. He's just a tier below that in the regular season, which is going to perpetually keep him in that 10 to 15 range. For the record, there's some legitimacy to that fact. Like him being that type of kind of coast a little bit in the regular season type of player actually does lead to seating issues. and putting yourself in a predicament where you have to go on the road to Milwaukee

in the first round to try to win a series. Now, mind you, there was a lot going on from a roster construct standpoint with Miami, but he's not the floor-raising 82 game MVP-level superstar. But then you put him in a playoff series and he can play just as well as those guys. This is no longer just a coincidence. This is no longer, oh, he got hot a couple of times.

This is a career resume now from Jimmy Butler of him going up a level in being one of the most devastating playoff players in the league. I had so much fun watching him last night. It kind of felt somewhat of a crowning achievement, so to speak, in the best way other than winning a championship. And he may never win a championship,

especially if he can't find himself on a roster with a little bit more talent. But this is a big part of why, you know, as much as winning is the ultimate goal, and it should be the framework with which we evaluate these guys, at the end of the day, Jimmy is a winner. He's every bit as much of a winner as some of the guys around the league that do have championships. And I hope he gets credit for that.

Looking at the series in particular, you know, I said before game four, I said that I didn't think there was any reason to worry for Milwaukee until Janus, for whatever reason, had to miss a game. And then they announced he's going to play in game four. And now there legitimately is a reason to worry. not because I don't think Milwaukee's the better team. I still think Milwaukee's a better team. It's just the reality of their predicament now that their margin for error is gone.

This is what happened in this series. The Janus goes down with an injury in game one. Milwaukee kind of is flattened as a result they lose. Then without Janus, they beat the shit out of the heat in game two. Game three, Mike Booneholtzer and the staff, I would imagine look around and they said, hey, we can beat them without Janus. Let's buy him some extra rest. Let's go play.

But you end up losing. Okay, whatever. Janus comes back. They're up 12 with six minutes left. On the road. The Bucks played more than well enough to win this game. Now, here's the thing, and this is the reality of what happens when you make a decision like sitting Janus in game three.

You cut into your margin for error. Why is margin for error important? because in basketball games, any sort of variance can happen, right? For instance, in that fourth quarter run, I watched it again this morning. They're up 12. You know, Miami made a lot of uncharacteristically difficult shots. The run started. Bayam Etabio hits a pull-up jump shot.

That's, you know, Bay Mada bio is not typically a guy that you expect to just dribble up the floor and beat you off the dribble and make a jump shot. But he did. Good for Japan. Very next possession. Another pull-up jump shot from Jimmy Butler. Now, there was one tactical thing that was hurting Miami that was hurting Milwaukee that will get to in a second where they got a couple of really good looks on, specifically an and one from Jimmy Butler.

And then there was another play where he got downhill. I can't remember exactly what it was, but I think he finished at the rim twice during that stretch against the specific tactical issue for Milwaukee that we'll talk about in a second. But outside of that, it was all pull-up jump shots. Jimmy pull-up jumper at the foul line, Bam pull-up jumper at the foul line, Caleb Martin, a contested jab step three in the corner with Janice's hand in his face.

And then Jimmy Butler, who shot 28% on pull-up threes this year, makes back-to-back highly difficult pull-up threes, off the bounce. That's what, look, chances are same shot diet, you probably win, right? Like, Janice missed a short little hook shot in the lane in the final minute when they were down one that would have given them the lead. Yonis just missed it. You know, that shot missed and Jimmy made pull-up threes. Again, that's where the margin for error comes in.

You have to account for the fact that on any given night, the other team can just make some shots that they don't normally make, and you can miss some shots that you normally make, and you can miss some shots that you normally make, and you can lose. I'm not trying to take credit away from Miami. They earned that win. My point is, is like, they also shot above their shot quality down the stretch. For 42 minutes, Milwaukee was clearly the better team

in Miami's home arena, and they were up 12. And normally, if you're up 3-0 or you're up 2-1, you drive home and you're like, they got us. You know, they beat us. Congratulations. You know, you build margin for error by having a lead in the series. My favorite example of this from last year was Buck, or Heat Celtics, if you guys remember.

The Celtics went into Miami, beat the Heat in Game 5. So they bought themselves a 3-2 lead. Game 6 was this crazy Bametabio game. Remember, I think he had 30-something. And Bametabio, like, say what you want about him. He's not the guy that goes and gets you 30. He's just not. But he went and got 30 in game 6, and the heat stole a game.

But because they had a lead, they bought themselves the margin for error to weather that storm, and then they went into Miami and beat them in game 7. That's kind of the way I see this sort of thing. You went down to 1, and then you got the crazy pull-up shooting Jimmy Butler game, which was always on the table. and now you're down 3-1. Now, as of right now, the bucks are an 11-point favorite, I think, in game 5, so they're probably going to win.

This is why I said, like, last night, I was going to be looking at fan-dual odds for whether or not Milwaukee can win the series. Because, like, it really is this simple. You go home and you beat the heat, which you're going to be a double-digit favorite. You are a double-digit favorite. You should win that game, right? So now it's 3-2. Then you go back to Miami.

And you're probably going to be a four or five point favorite in that game. That doesn't mean you can't win. That's going to be a difficult, or that doesn't mean you're going to win. It's going to be a very difficult game. But if Milwaukee goes into Miami in game six and plays Milwaukee Bucks basketball for 48 minutes, they should win. They have more talent. Not only does this Miami team have, not only is this Miami team devoid of size,

but they're down two additional shot creators in Tyler Harrow and Victor Oladipo. Now, they've been getting a lot of contributions elsewhere. We talked about the Caleb Martin shot. Kyle Lowry was freaking outrageous defensively down the stretch of this game. Containing Chris Middleton, switching on to Drew Holiday to get a key strip and stop at the end. I didn't think Milwaukee's defense was that bad down the stretch. They really did get good looks. The only two plays I didn't like was the play where Drew Holiday isolated Kyle Lowry and got stripped.

And then there was another play where they turned it over at the half-class. court line when Jimmy got the dunk to put them up one. Other than that, Milwaukee ran pretty damn good offense down the stretch, but Chris Middleton missed two pull-up jump shots that are like good looks for him, like higher percentage shots for him than some of the pull-up jumpers that Miami made. There was a wide open three for Pat Conninton in the left corner on a kickout, I believe, from Yannis, if I remember correctly, that was dead on and just rattled in and out. You know, Yonis misses the little hook shot in the lane.

The Bucks played well. They just lost. which is something that can happen in any one game sample size. But I was looking, I was like, okay, if this is, if they got, if the bucks become a significant underdog, I'd like to bet them because it's just, I would put the odds of this series at about a coin flip right now. I think there's about a 50% chance that Miami wins one of the next two games. And I think there's about a 50% chance that the bucks just win three straight.

So if I could find the odds to make that a worthwhile bet, I would take it, but it turns out. I think Milwaukee's only like plus 120, which is pretty close to a coin flip anyway and not really a good enough number, in my opinion, to bet. But it's not over for the bucks. However, they are now at a point where they have absolutely zero margin for error. They absolutely have to play 48 minutes, 48 minutes, 48 minutes, 48 minutes of championship level bucks basketball, because now they cannot afford to be beaten by variance. They need to play 10 to 15 points better than the heat every night. to avoid whatever crazy could happen.

One last thing I wanted to talk about was the Jimmy Butler problem. So we did a show yesterday in the morning, our Chase three-point segment where we talked about the key adjustments for a bunch of these series. And the main one that I talked about was, for this series, was Janice has to guard Jimmy.

Like, Drew Holiday is simply not bothering him. They started running a, Jimmy was really trying to attack Chris Milton. and one of the tactical things that I didn't like was like, okay, yeah, Chris Middleton is going to struggle a little bit in that matchup compared to Drew. Like there was a play where they got a switch down the stretch where Jimmy drove into Chris Middleton's chest and drew a foul and made it, got an and won. But it was a tough shot.

And at least it was heavily contested and against their set defense. There were two additional plays down the stretch where they tried to hedge and recover. and as a result, they gave up driving lanes. There was one where, on the left wing, where Jimmy calls for the ball screen, gets Chris Middleton to hedge out, and then as Chris Middleton is recovering, he runs into Drew Holiday,

and Jimmy gets a clear driving lane to the left and makes a kickout pass to Caleb Martin on the right wing who had just made a three, and he makes a three. It's a wide open three for a shooter that was in rhythm and hot, specifically because they tried to hedge and recover with Chris Middleton, and instead of just switching and having Jimmy have to actually beat Chris Middleton off the dribble, he got a wide open driving lane because Chris botched to the hedge and recover and Drew ran into it.

On the first pull-up three that Jimmy Butler made, same thing. Chris Middleton brought up into the screen, he hedges in that gap between when he's recovering and before Drew Holiday can come up, Jimmy steps into a pretty good look from three at the top of the key. So he's having plenty of success against Drew. Everything that he's doing with Drew to attack Chris is causing problems. Get Janus involved. He's wasted elsewhere. Jimmy is not being bothered by Janus and help at all.

But maybe just maybe, if you have Janus just hawk him all game long, you can slow him down. The dude's shooting like 60% in the, the series. And nobody on your roster can guard him, except for the guy that I think might be the best defensive player in the league, which is Janus, you got to try. Yeah, it's a lot to ask. Yeah, he's hurt. Janus is clearly hurt. I had a lot of heat fans in my comments yesterday, like, oh, you said there's no chance the heat can beat. If Janus plays every game in this series, they're up 3-1 right now. That's just a fact, in my opinion. Like, Yonis, when he's held

on the Bucks in particular, makes them way better than the heat. Credit to the heat, credit to Jimmy. I'm not trying to take away from it at all. In general, the playoffs are a war of attrition. It's about who survives. I saw Nick Wright on Fox Sports the other day talking about how, you know, oh, the Warriors have been so lucky with injuries. I mean, yeah, they've had some luck. But like, every NBA finals is a war of attrition. It just simply is. The Celtics made it to the finals last year, in large part because Chris Middleton was gone in the Milwaukee Bucks series. That's just what happened, right? The Warriors got to play a Nuggets team down two of their top three players. Like, it's part of the deal. The year before in, in 2021, the Milwaukee Bucks got a lot of injury

luck along the way. That's just what happened. They got to play a really flawed sons team in the finals. In 2020, the Lakers, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant on their couches, not playing. Bamaetabio hurts his shoulder. Gore and Drogich pulls his groin or whatever, or I think it was planter fasciitis. I can't remember exactly what it is, but he had an inch. Like, every year, 2019, Kevin Durant and Clay Thompson get hurt. 2018, Chris Paul gets hurt.

2017, Kauai Leonard gets hurt. 2016. Like, it's just, it's a war of attrition. So I'm not trying to take away from what Miami did, but, like, my prediction was based on the fact that Janus would play the series and be healthy. But it's not over. Like I said, I'm thinking it's about a 50-50 shot right now.

If I had gun to my head pick, I'm going to stick with the bucks. But just because I haven't seen anything specifically, schematically, that leads me to believe that Miami's better. They just, they wield themselves to a big win yesterday. It reminds me a little bit of the 2006 series between the Sons and the Lakers, where through four games, Kobe's clearly the best player, just like Jimmy's been clearly the best player through four games. And through heroics by Kobe Bryant in game four,

and heroics by Jimmy Butler in game four, they take a 3-1 lead. But you know what happened? The Sun's one game five, and then they won game six, and then they won game seven. And that's certainly on the table for the Bucks. It's not a lot of Bucks fans like saying,

ship everyone off, only Yonis gets to stay. Time to mix up the roster. And this roster has some flaws. They're a little bit old, they're a little bit slow. But they're also huge, outstanding defensively, and have a pretty decent amount of offensive skill. And there is no team around the league that is perfect. So the grass isn't always greener on the other side.

You might make a bunch of roster shifts and be a worst team next year. This is not over. The bucks are still in this. But credit to Jimmy, credit to the heat. Like I said in that last playing game, was it against Chicago, I think. I was rooting for Miami to win because I thought they would give a better fight to Milwaukee, and they certainly have lived up to that. All right, guys, that's all I have for today.

We are all three games tonight are double-digit favorites. I just actually place a little money line parlay on all three. I think it pays out like one to two, so, you know, you bet $10 you get five back. I just did those games. I think you'll see Atlanta in particular will fold. The Clippers just simply don't have enough offensive skill. Minnesota, Denver's, the one that's kind of up in the air because in the last, in game four and in game two, Minnesota gave Denver a lot of

issues, so they certainly have a chance. But this is a long grind, and we're trying to find handfuls of, you know, a night here, a night there where I can actually hang out with my wife a little bit. So we're going to take tonight off, and then we will be back for just a wild slate of games on Wednesday night. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys, and I'll see you on on Wednesday. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tontons and wampas on the ice planet hot,

or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of Two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. guests. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed human.