The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Knicks vs. Cavaliers Playoff Prediction, Warriors-Kings Prediction: Will Steph Curry & GS start another NBA Finals run?

Episode Date: April 12, 2023

Jason Timpf breaks down the 6th-seeded Golden State Warriors' first round matchup with the 3rd-seeded Sacramento Kings in the NBA Playoffs. Will Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson go on another NBA Finals run or will De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Sacramento stun the defending champs? Plus, Jason breaks down the 5th-seeded New York Knicks' matchup with Donovan Mitchell and the 4th-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. How big is the difference between Mitchell and Jalen Brunson? And what is Jason's prediction for the series? #volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at The Volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody. We're going to get right into it today with the first of our eight series previews, starting in the Eastern Conference with the 4-5 matchup, the Cleveland Cavaliers versus the New York Knicks. Going to dive into this series from a bunch of different angles. You guys know the drill before we get started.

Subscribe to the volumes. YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT, so you guys don't miss any show announcements. Also going to be doing a lot more footage breakdowns on my Twitter feed as we had into the playoffs. And last but not least, if for whatever reason you guys miss one of these episodes and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish, don't forget you can find them wherever you get your podcasts under hoops tonight. All right, let's talk some basketball. So a couple of series notes here before we get into the weeds. The calves are a minus 205 favorite. That's a significant favorite to win the series right now.

think that's inflated by the Julius Randall news, though. The Knicks won the season series three to one, including winning three in a row. They won a game where they held them to just 81 points. They want a game where Julius Randall lit them up for 36 points and hit the eventual game winner. And then they won a game in Cleveland where Julius Randall was out, and Jalen Brunson had a monster night. I think he had almost 50, and he outplayed Donovan Mitchell to beat the Cavs in Cleveland.

So the Cavs have been the better team all season from a standings and a big picture standpoint, but the Knicks have been a better team within this matchup. They both have an elite top five unit. The Cavs have the best defense in the league by defensive rating, and the Knicks are the fourth best offense in the league, and both teams are top seven in net rating. So both teams probably feel very good about their chances. I think this is by far the most interesting series in the Eastern Conference first round.

East is a little rough there in that first round. a lot of somewhat un-interesting matchups. Hopefully we get Miami-Boston to get one more interesting look. But everything will get entertaining once we get to round two with how good the top of that conference is. But I wanted to start with Nick's Cavs, because this is my favorite series out east. On the Julius Randall front,

he sprained his ankle a couple weeks ago. I expect him to play. So moving forward with this breakdown, I'm going to be moving forward under the assumption that Julius Randall plays in every. game and then he's roughly 80% of what he was before the injury. Just think like a little out of shape and a little out of rhythm. I'm expecting that as part of this calculus that I'm looking forward in this series. And then obviously if he's out and misses a significant chunk of the series,

that makes this a whole lot easier, doesn't it? Because in the playoffs with the way they'll be able to load up on Jalen Brunson, I'm just not sure how they'd be able to win without Julius Randall. So obviously that's a big swing factor there, but we're going to move forward as though he is healthy. So last year, the way we did these series previews is we kind of just did offense defense, so we'd kind of focus on one side of the ball for both teams, and then we'd focus on the other side of the ball when the other team had possession and what those matchups would look like. I want to do it a little bit different this year. I want to kind of look at big picture matchups, and I want to bounce around between both sides of the floor as a result of that. I think it allows

us to kind of target the specific battles that a team has to win in order to win a series. We'll see how if it lasts through all eight breakdowns, but that's how I'm doing this one to start. So first of all, as we're looking at the shot creators for both teams, I kind of look at RJ Barrett and Caris Lavert as two different sides of the same coin. They're both tertiary shot creators who are both kind of like frustrating for their fan bases from time to time. Like RJ Barrett can get tunnel vision and really start to play kind of on an island with himself and he can really force the ball to his left hand side and is pretty heavy to the basket, not a good jump shooter. And then Carrey,

Harris Leverts kind of the opposite of that. The same type of kind of tunnel vision guy, but he's much more of a pull-up jump shooter, and he shoots the ball well from three. He's actually one of the better pull-up three-point shooters that we have in the league, but he takes a lot of pull-up jump shot. So it's a similar type of frustration that you experience with RJ Barrett just kind of in a different archetype offensively. I kind of look at those two guys as a wash,

and I would imagine that both fan bases will be largely frustrated with them throughout the series. I do think RJ Barrett is a slightly better defensive player, than Carus Lavert, but not enough to have a major impact on this series. And I don't think Caris Lavert is a weak point defensively. So what I want to focus in on is the Brunson v. Mitchell matchup and the Randall v. Garland matchup, because those are the two shot creation matchups that I do see having a large impact on the outcome of the series. So first of all, Donovan Mitchell is the best player in the series.

He deserves that recognition going in. He's got a much more extensive playoff resume. And I think overall right now, he's just a little bit. better. But that's the key there. I do think it's a lot closer than people think. Going into this series, you know, it's funny, I was talking with my buddy Josh, who's on our production staff here at the volume for Hoops Tonight. He's a big Knicks fan. And he was talking on Twitter the other day about how Knicks fans are very at peace with the Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell situation, having not got Donovan Mitchell over the summer. And, you know, it's pretty critical of the Knicks for not,

you know, being more aggressive to get Donovan Mitchell. That said, The reality was, is Jalen Brunson being as good as he ended up being is what made it so that the Knicks fans could move on. That's why they're kind of at peace with it. Had Jalen Brunson been more or less what he was with the Mavericks, it might have been more frustrating because Donovan Mitchell is, you know, legitimately a second-tier superstar, right? And Jalen Brunson was something beneath that.

But Jalen Brunson has gone up a level in this season, even above and beyond what he was in last year's postseason, which was a legitimate 20 point per game score, right? This season, he's actually been better than Donovan Mitchell in every single phase of shot creation. I wanted to break this down for you guys. First of all, Donovan Mitchell and pick and roll, 1.1 points per possession including passes. Jalen Brunson, 1.08, not much of a gap there. In isolation, Donovan Mitchell, 1.02 points per possession, including passes.

Jalen Brunson, 1.1. So significantly better beating switches in isolation. and Jaylen Brunson has a whole post-up element to his game. He's actually run 80 post-ups this year for 76 points, including back in the game that they played in January, where the Knicks won 105-103 in crunch time. He had a play where he backed Donovan Mitchell down to kind of the elbow and hit him with a turnaround jumper.

Very important shot in that game out of the post over the top of Donovan Mitchell. He's actually been a more successful shot creator, and the big part of that is he's just a much, much better passer. than Donovan Mitchell. I think that's kind of what allows him to bridge that gap despite not being the otherworldly scoring force that Donovan Mitchell has been throughout his entire career, including in the postseason. I think Donovan, and you'll see that particularly at the end of games, because Donovan Mitchell can have a little bit of that Russell Westbrook thing going on, where he can force the action and play hero ball a lot, whereas Jaylen Brunson is a little more

methodical, a little bit more of a slowdown and impatiently make reads kind of guy. I think that's what allows him to bridge that gap despite not being the same level of athlete and shotmaker that Donovan Mitchell is. But I still, especially when we factor in the nature of the postseason, the way that physicality increases, the way that your athleticism becomes a bigger advantage in that setting, I still give Donovan Mitchell a clear edge as the best player in the series because of, and I think he's earned that right going in, given the way that he's played in his postseason career. But it's not much of an advantage in my opinion, but I would say that he is the best player in the series. And also, I wouldn't be surprised if we looked back two weeks from now

and Jalen Brunson had outplayed him. But going into the series, I think from a prediction standpoint, that's a matchup that the Cavs will win in favor of Donovan Mitchell by some small margin. Randall versus Garland. These are the two bona fide secondary shot creators. I actually think Randall has a significant edge here, kind of a similar size, edge to what I'd give Mitchell over Jalen Brunson. He's been more efficient as both a pick and roll shot creator and ISO shot creator than Darius Garland this year. He's averaging 1.07 points per pick and roll, including passes compared to 1.03 for

Darrys Garland, 1.02 points per ISO compared to 0.87 for Garland, not a strength in his game. And 1.06 points per post-up. And this is an important part that I've talked a lot about with Julius Randall this year. One of my favorite parts of his game and something that I think translates really well to the postseason is that classic like we run in action or we sprint down in transition and get a cross-match. But whatever it is, Julius Randall gets a smaller defender on him. And they space the floor. The Knicks are an excellent spot-up team.

They're third in the league and converting spot-up possessions into points. And he can back his way down to that 10-15-foot area and just hit somebody with his shoulder and go to that fade away over his left shoulder that he can hit at a high clip. And that is rock fight basketball. That's the kind of thing that doesn't depend on getting a ton of legs into a shot. That's a 26-foot step-back shot. You know what I mean? It's a shot that is very dependable on that stage of the NBA playoffs,

especially when you have a size advantage. Julius Randalls had an incredibly impressive scoring season this year, and it's a big part of why the Knicks have been so good offensively this year. And I think the last thing kind of as a team perspective, because as I look at that, again, it's pretty even. you've got the two guards that are your high pick and roll shot creators, and then you've got this big forward for the Knicks, and then another more playmaking-oriented guard for the Cavs,

and then you've got these two weird tertiary creators in R.J. Barrett and Karris Levert, but there's more variety in what the New York Knicks do. And I think that in combination with their spot-up talent is a big part of why I think they've been the better offensive team this year. Everything the Cavs do is at high pick-and-roll. As we told you earlier, Mitchell is not nearly as good at converting isolation possessions as Randall and Brunson. He's much more of a pick and roll shot creator. And Darius Garland's bad at converting isolation possessions.

He's a pick and roll shot creator. So everything the Cavs do is at a high pick and roll. In fact, they ran the fourth most pick and rolls in the league this year. And the most among the solidified playoff teams in the top six in both conferences. So simply put, among the teams that have playoff spots locked down, nobody runs more pick and roll than the Cavs. They're a very one-dimensional approach in that regard. Whereas with the Knicks, you know, both Brunson and Randall can run pick and roll, but they both can beat you in switches in both the ISO and out of the post.

There's a lot of variety with the way that they can attack. We saw in the last matchup between these two teams, Jalen Brunson torched the Cavs out of high pick and roll hitting pull-up threes down the stretch. But then in their previous matchup back in January, saw Jaylen Brunson in the entire fourth quarter pretty much turn his back to the basket and operate out of the post on that right elbow, right? So there's just a little bit more variety with what the Knicks do, which makes them harder to defend. And then they're much, much better at converting spot-up possessions. That's a key factor in this series. The Knicks are the third best spot-up team in the league,

and the Cavs are the fifth worst spot-up team in the league. They're 26th in the league at converting spot-up possession. So that's where you get that big gap on the offensive end of the floor. Another big match-up part I wanted to look at here, and this is where we zoom in on the spotting up side of things. Josh Hart versus the plethora of Cavs players that are going to play at the forward position in various offball 3-n-D roles. I remember I was initially confused by the Josh Hart acquisition. It didn't really make sense to me because it was kind of like an all-in type of trade. If I remember correctly, they gave up a first-round pick.

It was very much like the type of move you expect a team that has real championship aspirations to go after. But, hey, it was an indicator that the Knicks clearly are thinking that. way. And he's been absolutely amazing for them. He's an excellent defender with the versatility to guard both forwards and guards. He's an outstanding spot-up player because of his combination of the ability to respectively knock down threes while also being good at attacking closeouts. It's a highly underrated part of spotting up because that's what allows you to, on the possessions where they chase you off the line or you pump fake and go beat someone off the dribble. that's what allows you to convert those into points by either attacking the basket with athleticism

or making that awesome next read to the right guy who's going to be able to convert the possession. That's an important part of the game of basketball that gets overlooked when we just stare at three-point percentages. But Josh Hart is converting spot-up opportunities at 1.25 points per possession since joining the Knicks. Here's how insane that is. A guy like Michael Porter Jr. for the Nuggets is converting them at about 1.3 points per spot-up possession. So he's just a small level beneath the best spot-up players in the league since joining the Knicks. And he does all these other little things well. Cuts to the basket well, averages two offensive rebounds per game.

It turns many of those just into putbacks. He's the perfect glue guy to put the Knicks together. In fact, in 344 possessions this year, with Randall Brunson and Hart on the floor together, the Knicks are outscoring teams by 18.1 points per 100 possessions, which is amazing. As a comparison, albeit in a much larger season-long sample size, the Knicks sample size is shrunk by the fact that Hart was traded for, and then, you know, Jaylon Brunson missed some time with that foot injury, and then Julius Randall's missed some time with the ankles.

They haven't played as much together. But in a much larger sample size, that Cavs unit, let's just narrow it down to their best forward with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. So Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley? Those three guys are just 7.1 points positive. per 100 possessions. Again, much larger sample size, never apples to apples comparison. But it just goes to show you, as a point of reference, how dominant the Knicks have been when they've had Randall and Brunson with a guy like Josh Hart to tie it all together

with all the little things that he does well. This particular matchup, that Josh Hart versus the Cavs' Wings matchup, I think is going to be one of the biggest swing factors in the series. Because like I said, slight edge to Mitchell over Brunson, slight edge to Randall, over Garland, you know, Kerasavert, RJ Barrett, you know, who the hell knows what's going to happen with those guys? This is going to be a massive swing factor in this series, in my opinion. That idea of what Josh Hart can do off the ball is a glue guy to put everything together. And obviously, Evan Mobley does this in a very different way for Cleveland. We're going to talk about him here in a minute.

I have a whole kind of like segment put together for Evan Mobley. But that specific matchup is something I'm going to be keeping a very close eye on. Because here's the deal. This is the way I look at it. If Donovan Mitchell's the best player in the series, and if the Cavs have home court advantage, and there's a little bit of a question mark surrounding Julius Randall and his ankle, and Cleveland's defensive front line, the Jared Allen Evan Mobley thing and all they can do to dominate teams on the interior, if Josh Hart was on the calves, I'd be picking the calves in a heartbeat. but Josh Hart and the overall, you know, Quentin Grimes, the Emanuel quickly,

the overall as a group, much more aggregate offensive skill and ball handling and shooting from the role players' depth on the bench, that is the biggest swing factor for me in this series. That's what allows a team like the Knicks to overcome all those advantages that I just broke down for the Cavs. And with the Cavs' wings, and again, they generate just 1.02 points per spot of possession, which is 26th in the league. it's like guys like Isaac Kouro, Lamar Stevens, Chetty Osmond, Dean Wade, the Danny Green trade just isn't moving well enough for them to use him.

All of them have either not been hitting shots well enough, not attacking closeouts well enough, or doing those things well, but not defending well enough for it to matter. And that's so important for the Cavs in particular because they love to use their forward, whether that's Lamar Stevens or Isaac Acora. they love to use that guy to take primary point of attack assignments. Like guard the other team's best guard. And so going with an offensive option there puts you in a predicament where now you have to ask Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell to do that. And not only are they not good at that, but they're also guys that have an enormous amount of offensive responsibility on a team that doesn't really have much offensive skill beyond their two guards. And so it kind of puts them in this predicament where they don't know who to play. Now, the biggest optimism point there is Isaac O'Coro has been shooting extremely well since going into the starting lineup.

In 38 games since joining the starting lineup is shooting 44% from 3. And again, he's probably the best point of attack defender on the roster. He's probably going to draw the Jalen Brunson assignment from the opening tip of game one of this series. And so whether or not the Cavs can somehow level out that match up a little bit by having guys like Isaac Akoro shoot the lights out. by having Lamar Stevens knocked down more threes than he's been hitting. By getting something out of Dean Wade and Chetty Osman, that could go a long way to leveling things out. So here's the deal.

I think the Knicks are going to win this series. I'm picking them in six games. Now, before I go any further, this is an obligatory thing that I have to do. Predictions are hard. These are just my best guesses. If it was easy to do this, we'd all be in Vegas. Instead of watching these games as fans, we'd all be in Vegas gambling on these games.

This is the beauty of the game of basketball. It is a living organism of a five-man unit. It is extremely difficult to predict. That's where the fun is. So just because I predict one team over another, doesn't mean I'm going to be right. I'm going to pick eight series. Guarantee you I get more than one of them wrong.

It's just the nature of the game of basketball. And if I do get all eight right, it's going to be pure luck. But part of my job is I have to make a pick. I'm going to pick the Knicks to win the series in six games. But the Cavs absolutely have a chance to win the series. Hell, they're favored to do it. I would imagine most of you guys listening disagree with me. And so I want to provide a case for why I think the Cavs can win.

Now again, just quick recap the way the Knicks can win. I think their shot creators are a little bit better and a little more versatile, which is important in the playoffs. I think their ability to help off of Evan Mobley in the small forward position will allow them to defend well enough in this matchup, despite not being a great defensive team during the regular season. The Knicks were 18th in defense during the regular season, allowing about 114.2 points per 100 possessions. But they have guarded Cleveland well. They have a 109.4 defensive rating against Cleveland.

And to give you a perspective, Cleveland's 109.9 defensive rating is best in the league. So they've been defending at a much higher level in this particular matchup against Cleveland, in large part because of their ability to help off those forwards, to help them with rim protection. And guards are actually the strength of the Nix defense. Jalen Brunson is a slightly above average point of attack defender. Emmanuel quickly is a good point of attack defender. Josh Hart is a good point of attack defender, and R.J. Barrett is an above average point of attack defender.

That's where the strength of their defense is. It's, you know, some of the limitations with Mitchell Robinson and whether or not they can keep him on the floor offensively versus going with someone like Isaiah Hartnstein and then Julius Randall who can come and go defensively, that's where the weakness of their defense is. And don't get me wrong, I don't think the Knicks can win the title, but I think they can defend well enough to beat a Cleveland team. And then I think the big guy to watch for the Knicks in the series again is Josh Hart. I bet you his winning impact screams off of the screen in every single one of these games. But let's talk about how the Cavs can win.

I wrote down four specific swing factors for the Cavs, four battles, that I think they need to win in order to win the series. First of all, Donovan Mitchell needs to play like the best player in the series. He needs to clearly win the matchup with Jalen Brunson, and specifically I want to look at decision-making. Again, the Caz have been a little bit underwhelming in clutch situations this year, although they've been better as of late. They finished the year 24 and 21 in games involving clutch situations,

which is fine, it's not awful, but this is a team that won 51 games and had the sixth best record in the league. So they have underperformed in clutch situations relative to what their record. it is. Donovan Mitchell has a tendency to force things sometimes. In that specific game, down the stretch like we talked about back in January, Jalen Brunson, it's 100 to 100, kind of methodically, is working out of the post, doesn't really get enough of an advantage. So he just shovels it to Julius Randall. Doesn't force it, just shovels it to Julius Randall. Julius was feeling good about his shot that night, rises up and hits a three in Jared

Allen's face. Next two possessions for the cabs were Donovan Mitchell getting blocked at the rim and turning the ball over. In transition possessions where he had no advantage and he just forced it. Just tried to pile drive his way to the basket. And bad stuff happened. He just got that just has that little bit of, it's almost like too much confidence in his own ability to be able to kind of slow things down and let the game come to him. He has to be able to rein that in because he is a more dynamic score. He is a better athlete. He should be the best player in this series. Jalen Brunson's best way to outplay him in this series is in clutch situations. So that's where Donovan Mitchell has to kind of rein things in.

If he wins that matchup convincingly, that's a huge step forward for the caps. Number two, find a way to limit Julius Randall's bully ball. Now, in film, one of the best ways I saw this was putting Jared Allen on him. He's got a good amount of muscle mass and size and length to be able to absorb those Julius Randall's shoulders to contest shots. forced Julius Randall into a lot of long threes that he was hitting because he's Julius Randall and he can get hot, right? But I actually thought he did a good job of taking away the easier shots that Julius is known to get sometimes.

I think that also kind of puts Evan Mobley in a position where he can kind of help and roam around. Obviously, that's a little bit of a gamble against a Knicks team with guys like Isaiah Hartnstein and Mitchell Robinson that relentlessly attack the offensive glass. But I think it lines up their matchups pretty well. I think somehow finding a way to take away those easy shots that Julius Randall can get at the rim in the short to mid-range, maybe through a matchup like Jared Allen, I think it could go a long way. Third, Isaac Okoro needs to shoot over 40% from three in this series.

Again, he's their best point of attack defender. He is shooting 44% from three since joining the starting lineup. That's a 38 game sample size. That's almost half a season. but the Knicks will not guard him. He is not a good close-out attacker, does not have a good well-rounded skill set. So it's either knocking down the three or not much else from those kickouts. And so he has to hit them at such a high rate that it really hurts the Knicks when they help off of him.

In fact, this year, out of 126 players in the league, to log at least 200 spot-up possessions, Isaac Acoro is converting them 100 out of 126 players. Less than a point per possession. That's not good. And that's why the Knicks are going to leave him wide open. A lot of big Cavs games this year have come down to Isaac Acoro Corner 3s. And we all remember the Brooklyn one where, you know, that crazy Donovan Mitchell offensive rebound on the free throw that gets kicked by a really nice swing pass from Karris Levert,

cross the court, Isaac Kouro hits the shot. you know, big time bucket for a Cavs team that desperately needed a good clutch win like that. But go back to January against the Knicks and Julius Randall hits a three from the top of the key. A couple possessions later, there's a possession that ends up in a wide open Isaac of Coro 3 in the left corner to tie the game. And he missed that one. Same spot missed that one. So a lot of these possessions, especially with Tom Thibidone and the way that he likes to guard, a lot of these possessions are going to end in Isaac Acora open in the corner.

Can he hit them at a high enough clip to kind of mitigate some of that Josh Hart advantage that I was talking so much about? That would go a long way towards giving the Cavs a chance. And then last but not least, and this is where Evan Mobley comes in, Evan Mobley and Jared Allen have to utterly dominate the interior of this series on both ends of the floor. That's their biggest advantage from a personnel standpoint in the series. Julius Randall obviously offensively presents a bunch of issues, but he's not a great defensive player.

And if Jared Allen can somewhat win that matchup defensively with him and limit his effectiveness and force him into a bad series, and Evan Mowgli's been scoring really well, he's gone up a leap in the last half of the season. In his last 38 games, not counting the Sunday game when he barely played, he's averaging 19 points per game on 56% shooting to go with his usual lights-out, versatile defense, blocking almost two shots per game. he's shooting 73% at the rim this year.

He's shooting 54% on floaters. That's that Anthony Davis little push shot in the lane that's so important. If he just kicks everyone's ass and Jared Allen can mitigate some of that Julius Randall advantage and he gets something like 20 and 10 at Evan Mobley, it's just as an athletic wrecking ball everywhere on the floor. That's another huge swing factor for the calves. So to kind of wrap it all together here, I'm picking the Knicks and 6th. I think they're a better and more versatile shot creation team.

I think they're much better spotting up off the ball. They've defended Cleveland really well this year, and overall, I think the Knicks have better role players with a deeper bench. But the Cavs' best chance is Donovan Mitchell's soundly out plays Jalen Brunson. They dominate the interior on both ends of the floor with Mobley and Allen. They contain Julius Randall's bully ball attack and turn him into a jump shooter, and then Isaac Acoro needs to shoot lights out. If they can check those boxes, I think the Cavs run away with this series.

We are continuing our series previews today with what I think is the most interesting series in the first round of the Western Conference, the Sacramento Kings versus the Golden State Warriors. For those of you guys who missed it, we hit my favorite series from the Eastern Conference first round, Nick's Cavs earlier today. You can find that on our YouTube feed. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT, so you guys don't miss any show announcements.

And if for whatever reason, you guys can't get over to YouTube to finish one of these videos, you can find them wherever you get your podcasts under hoops tonight. And last but not least, before we get started, you guys have heard me talk about GameTime, the fastest-growing ticketing app in the United States. If you're looking to get out to an NBA playoff game, a baseball game, an NHL game, or even a concert or a comedy show, game time has amazing last-minute deals on tickets to all of these. So if you're looking to get out to watch your favorite team play in the NBA playoffs, Game Time has you covered. If your favorite artist is touring around the country and you want to get tickets to see them in concert,

Game Time has you covered. They've taken amazing care of me in the past. It's a super easy user experience. You're going to find a good deal. You're going to know exactly what you're getting yourself into. I highly recommend it to you guys. So no matter where you live, get out and have some fun this week. Download the GameTime app.

Enter your email and redeem code hoops for $20 off your first. purchase. Terms apply. Again, enter your email and code hoops. That's H-O-O-P-S for $20 off. Download game time today. Last-minute tickets, lowest price, guaranteed. All right, let's talk some basketball. So a couple of quick notes on Warriors Kings. The Warriors are minus 260 favorites right now in Vegas. That's a pretty significant favorite, a bigger favorite than the Cavs are over the Knicks, for instance. the Warriors won the season series 3 to 1 in dominant fashion. With Stefan Draymond on the floor this year, against the Kings, they outscored them by 26 points per 100 possessions.

This was back in the days early in the season when the Warriors starters were whooping everyone's ass, and it was primarily a concern about the bench and not necessarily their ability to play on the road. Now, important note, except for the Friday game when the Kings rested all their guys, the three games earlier in the season were all before Thanksgiving. So it's been a long time since then.

And as a result, I would imagine both teams probably feel confident in their chances going in. For the Kings, they can be like, hey, that was forever ago. Don't worry about it. We're a different team now will be fine. And if you're the Warriors, you're looking at it like, we know what we can do against these guys. We know they can't guard us. We're in good shape.

So, again, as should be the case, everyone should feel comfortable and confident when they go into a series or they have no chance to win. But I would imagine both teams feel pretty confident. Andrew Wiggins, Steve Kerr did a little presser before their game on Sunday and said that he's been ramping up with three on three and some five on five and that he's going to continue to practice and scrimmage throughout the week. My guess is that he plays on Saturday in game one of this series. It's a good matchup for the Kings, or excuse me, for the Warriors from the standpoint of size and athleticism. So they don't desperately need Wiggins to win this series, although obviously he would help. And so because of that, I think it's kind of like the perfect series for him to kind of ramp up

and, you know, for them to pull the plug on him in his minutes if he's not playing well or to give him a longer leash in games where he, you know, where the Warriors are playing, you know, 10, 15 points up on the scoreboard. I think it's the ideal situation to bring him back. Kind of reminds me of last year with Steph Curry when he was coming back from his injury. in the way that he was able to come off the bench against Denver and kind of slowly work his way into the series because it was a matchup that the Warriors felt good about. And I do believe the Warriors feel good about their matchup in this series. So similar to what I did with Cavs Nix, rather than just focusing on, you know, warriors and offense kings on defense and vice versa, I want to focus on major contested battles of the series,

major matchups and major back-and-forth swing factors that will determine the outcome of the series. So first, who is the best player in the series? I think it's Steph by a mile. I don't think that's a hot take. He's a bona fide top-tier superstar, and I think he's the second best player in the league right now behind Janus. He's also a proven playoff performer in the defending finals MVP. So that is a massive advantage for the Warriors. As a matter of fact, if Deeran Fox happened to somehow outplay Steph in this series,

that would be a gigantic swing and the Kings would win. If Deer and Fox outplay Steph in the series, they might beat the Warriors in five. But it's extremely unlikely. That is a massive advantage for Golden State in the series. Why does that matter? Why does it matter to have the best player in a playoff series? Well, a couple of reasons.

First of all, every series is close for the most part. As we go down the matchups in this first round, like even in the Western Conference, I think all of them will be close. Like the Nuggets aren't playing very good basketball. So if they catch a team like the Pelicans or the wolves that are playing well, like it's going to, that could be a six game series, right? Like, and I think perhaps the most lopsided matchup in the first round is probably

Sun's Clippers. And the Clippers are fine. They're good. They're not, I mean, again, I'm going to pick the Sons to win that series, but that's not going to be, they're not going to blow out the Clippers every single game, right? Like, it's going to be close. And the same goes for the Eastern Conference aside for maybe Brooklyn, Philly,

and whoever the bucks get in the first round. So the reality is, and it's just going to get closer as you go into deeper rounds of the playoffs. So these series are very closely and hotly contested, right? And so if the games are close, and generally speaking, playoff games, they're very physical, the refs swallow the whistle, the intensity ramps up as everybody's playing so damn hard,

that the game naturally devolves down into a ultra-physical rock fight. They just get super sloppy, super ugly, and it just becomes a game about grinding out possessions. And that's where superstars bring the biggest advantage in the game of basketball. The difference between a superstar and a role player is most apparent in those specific situations. Because here's the thing. When it comes to advantage situations, like closing out, like, there are a lot of guys in the league. There are a lot of guys that aren't even in the league that can knock down an open shot or attack a closeout, right?

Like on the peripheries of basketball teams, with those guys, it's more about you've got to find advantages for them. But when things get really tight, like those guys aren't going to create buckets off the bounce at a high rate. Like, the warriors aren't worried about like Keegan Murray in a set defense situation, like breaking you down off the dribble. They're worried about having to help off of him in all of the damage that he can do if he's wide open, right? So it's really about in these tightly contested slowdown physical, ugly half-court situations on both ends of the floor, who can grind out plays on both ends? That's where superstars come in. For example, if it's game five of this series and it's two to two and it's the fourth quarter and it's 78 to 78, it's going to be an ugly fourth. and having a guy like Steph who can make the most out of ugly situations better than just about anybody in the league,

that's a real advantage. That is why the best player in basketball has a bigger impact than most team sports, especially when we get to the NBA playoffs. And that's why I view Steph Curry being the best player in the series as a massive advantage for the Warriors. Now, second major matchup I'll be keeping an eye on. how will the warriors guard the Fox Subbonus dribble handoffs and pick and rolls? Now, last game, when everyone was actually playing, and again, we have to go way back to November for this,

but they actually started with Draymond Green on Deer and Fox, and Kvon Looney on Demona-Sabonis. It gave them the ability to switch if they needed to, and they feel comfortable with a guy like Draymond Green guarding out on the perimeter. And obviously, ideally, you don't want to put Kavanaughan-Luny out on the perimeter and a switch against Deeran Fox, but they actually had some success there. Deer & Fox was thrown off by that specific matchup, and in many cases, he was just passing the ball

around looking for one of his teammates to create an advantage because he didn't really know what to do with it. I'm really curious to see how long they're going to be able to do that because I think one of the biggest things that the Kings could be capable of doing is playing Kavanaugh-Luny off the floor in some of their best lineups. In that case, they're going to have to find a guard or a wing that is capable of guarding Dearen Fox or at least doing a decent job there. Andrew Wiggins? I don't know. Will he be ready? Probably not. I don't think he's athletically ready for that matchup. And the last time they played back in November, they used him primarily to guard Harrison Barnes. But he is an option that you could see

if he's feeling good physically as the series progresses. He has a little bit more switchability to battle with Subonis as well. You feel comfortable switching Draymond out. So that would be an interesting one to look at. The big guy I'm looking at, knows Gary Payton. I think he might actually be the key to this series for Golden State. I expect him to play big minutes, and I expect him to pick up Deer and Fox the second he crossed his half court, apply a bunch of ball pressure, and to make him feel uncomfortable in every phase of the game. I use this as an example after that Thunder game a couple weeks ago, but Gary Payton is such an asset to be able to deploy him on the other team's best guard

because he's so good at making them feel uncomfortable. He is incredibly big and strong for his height at 6'4-3 with a low center of gravity, so it's really difficult to knock him off the spots. You have to cleanly beat Gary Payton off the dribble. If you barely beat Gary Payton off the dribble, just through physicality, especially in a playoff environment, he's going to be able to corral you just by using his hands and his strength to get himself back in front of you.

He had a very, very successful fourth quarter against Chey Gildes with Alexander in that game against the Thunder a few weeks ago, and it was a big part of how the Warriors won that particular, game. That is a huge matchup advantage for Golden State to have that in their back pocket. See, because here's the thing, especially in clutch situations, it's going to be vitally important for the Warriors to find a way to defend that action two-on-two. And here's why that matters. If you have to bring a third guy over, you are now creating close-out situations or advantage situations for Keegan Murray and Kevin Herder and Harrison Barnes. And all three of those guys

are up over 1.1 points per spot-up possession. They are all three amazing spot-up players. They, you know, specifically Harrison Barnes is a good close-out attacker. Kegan Murray lights out from three, you know, Kevin Herder lights out from three and can do some stuff off the bounce as well. You put yourself in a very precarious position if you have to regularly help off of those guys to contain the Sabonis Fox Pick and Roll. So if you can force yourself or find a way to have some success,

defending that action two on two, then you prevent those advantage situations for the offball players for the Kings, which will go a long way towards stagnating that King's offense, because those guys aren't great, like we talked about earlier, at attacking a set elite defender. And so defending that action two on two is going to be vitally important. I believe that their best bet is going to be Gary Payton on ball, and I think in clutch situations, last seven minutes of the fourth quarter or so, you're going to see. Stefan Clay with Draymond and Gary Payton and either Jordan Pool or Dante DiVincenzo, depending on what the lineup kind of dictates.

But I think you're going to see a lot of Gary Payton in clutch situations in this series. And I also believe they're going to run a drop coverage. I think that, you know, again, traditional drop coverage works just fine as long as your guard can fight over the top of the screen well enough to continue to corral the guard into the rim protector. Draymond Green is amazing at playing that middle ground and baiting you into thinking the drop-off passes open and sticking that arm out and grabbing it or baiting you into thinking that you've got lay up but then at the last second recovering and defending you at the rim. It's when there is separation on that ball screen where D.A.

And Fawkes can get to that little 15-foot jump shot that he makes so well. And that little floater that he makes so well, that's where you end up in trouble. And so I think it's going to come down to a drop coverage with Gary Payton and Dremon Green and Gary Payton needing to do his job fighting over the top of the screen and applying that back pressure to continue to funnel Deeran Fox into Dremond at the rim. If they can do that, they can stay home off the ball, and that will go a long way in clutch situations to allowing the Warriors to get enough stops to win the series.

And, you know, the problem with switching, and again, I'm a big believer in switching in general, but you've got to have the right type of personnel to do so. Warriors are not a big team. That's just a fact. And so, Demona Sabonis, being one of the best players in the league at not only beating switches down low for quick, easy hook shots, he can even do it against big guy. I don't know many players in the league that are as gifted at getting his little short hook shot or his little short little bank shot off the glass off, regardless of Defender, other than Sabonis. He's just a master at hitting you with that shoulder at the right time to knock you off balance.

You just don't quite get enough lift so that he just barely gets enough separation to get that shot off, and he's just going to make it every single time. And then he's excellent at passing out of double teams. I've seen some teams have success, like the Dallas Mavericks and their win against the Kings the other day. They did a really nice job doubling Sabonis

and rotating out of it, but it's really difficult to do. And Sabonis has been one of the best players in the league at that specifically this year. He is either drawn a second defender or a hard double team on two. 296 post-ups this year, leading to 310 points. He's actually been the fourth best post-passer in the league

to log at least 100 passing possessions out of the post behind Janice, Luca, and actually a little surprise here. Julius Randall was one of the top three post-passers in the league this year. So, again, you want to try to avoid that double-team situation as much as possible. Again, they may end up having to, in which case it'll be down to Steve Kerr to line up the defensive rotations right and have the right personnel out there to be able to rotate out of it. But ideally, you need to find a way to defend that action two on two. The next major matchup I'm going to be keeping an eye on. Can the Kings ever get a stop

against this warrior's offense when they need to? The Kings have been one of the worst defenses I've ever seen from a good team this year. It's pretty simple. They're awful in the front court like Harrison Barnes and DeMontosabonis are not cleaning up messes on the back line. And historically throughout NBA history, and this is why I've never considered the Kings a championship contender, you have to have an elite defensive front court to win an NBA title. End of story. And the Kings just don't. But then on top of that, their back court presents some similar problems. Darren Fox is a solid point of attack defender, but Kegan Murray and Kevin Herder are pretty bad.

Harrison Barnes is, you know, when he gets switched out under perimeter players, is only okay. And they have better defensive options, guys like Terrence Davis, Guys like Davion Mitchell, Kessler Edwards has been a good defensive option for them here in the second half of the season, but they aren't in the same stratosphere offensively as Kevin Herder and Keegan Murray, right? So that's that tradeoff there is if they go to their better point of attack defenders, they lose a lot of their offensive skill and ball handling and shooting. And when they go with all their ball handling and shooting, they lose all that point of attack defense. I actually think one of the most interesting, you know, chess match pieces of this series is going to be Mike Brown

and trying to figure out that balance of defensive talent and offensive talent on the perimeter to give them a better chance of getting stops. But what's concerning with the Kings is there's not even encouraging stretch of defense this year. They're 24th in defensive writing for the season, and they were never good. They were 21st in October, 22nd, November, 14th in December, 16th in January, 27th in February, 22nd in March, 22nd in April. So even if we're trying to be optimistic about a ceiling here, there's nothing, I can't go like, hey, remember that time for 10 straight games when they locked everyone up?

No, that doesn't exist. And they've been especially bad against the Warriors. When Steph Curry is on the floor against the Kings this year, the Warriors are scoring 124 points per 100 possessions. To give you an idea, the Kings are 24th in the league in defense allowing 116 points per 100 possessions. Their defense gets eight points worse against the Warriors. Now, again, it was back in November,

and that's probably what the Kings are telling themselves in the locker room. But have the Kings gotten better defensively since November? No. They've been bottom 10 in the league the last three months. It's not even like they're trending in the right direction. On film, the Kings were blitzing every step screen, but they weren't just doing that. Like, they were doing these kind of half-hearted blitzes on, like, random things,

like an Andrew Wiggins' dribble handoff. There's a bucket in the first. first quarter of their game back in November where little handoff to Wiggins and Heter and Fox both like double team him for no reason. And it's like a drop off to Looney and a kick out to the other corner for like a wide open three for Clay Thompson. They're just, they do these soft blitzes. And again, like when you blitz, you have to blitz in such an aggressive way that it

forces a looping pass, which buys you an opportunity to rotate on the back end. If you sloppy blitz, if you slow and passively blitz, they're going to rip you to shreds because it's going to be an easy pass to the short roll man and an easy pass on the kickout to the wide open shooter. The Warriors are way too good at navigating those four-on-three situations to buy them a massive advantage. You have to be sharper. From a game plan standpoint, I think Mike Brown will probably go with a similar type of strategy. they just need to be way sharper. And again, it's going to come down to,

it's going to come down to that balance for Mike Brown because they might have to do something like squeeze a guy like Keegan Murray out of the rotation or Kevin Hurtter out of the rotation. Not entirely, but like a quick pull. And he might have to sacrifice some of that ball handling and shooting and go with like, all right, we're going to go with Harrison Barnes and we're going to go with Kessler Edwards and Deer and Fox. because if Kessler Edwards and Dearon Fox really lock in on the perimeter,

then maybe just maybe you have a chance to get enough stops. But it's not easy to do. And the Golden State offense is an absolute blender. They typically have at least three threats on the floor at any given time, whether that's Steph Clay and Dante Devenzo or Steph Clay and Jordan Poole. They've got threats all over the floor. If Andrew Wiggins is healthy, he's a threat as well. He averaged almost 20 points a game in last year's postseason.

And then the idea, so the warriors actually run more sets. And again, when I think of a set, it's not an action, it's a set. So, for instance, a lot of teams run actions. An action is like, I dribble up the floor and I do a dribble handoff. And then that guy kind of tries to get downhill and make a play. Technically, that's an action. It's a two-man action, a dribble handoff. Or high pick and rolls, technically an action.

Even like backside action. So if like some guys running a high-pick-and-roll while the other two shooters are screening for each other, Those are two actions. A set is a legitimately designed five-person action, right? The Warriors run more of those than anybody in the league, and it's not close. And they complicate those actions with multiple threats at any given possession. So, for instance, there's split cut sets that they run. It'll be, you have to defend this guy coming off of that, you know, like the guy

make the post entry and he'll go screen away. and you have to watch out for the guy he's screening for us. He's coming back towards the post. But at the same time, if you overhelp, that dude slip into the rim. Or if you ignore the guy with the basketball, Dremont Green might fake your dribble handoff and go to the basket. There's three threats on that play.

They run this five-out set all the time these days where, like, Steph Curry will run a high ball screen with Dremon Green as Clay Thompson is relocating. It's kind of like a variation in the Spain pick and roll where Clay will come off of Dremont to the other side of the wing and they have the entire side cleared for him to attack. So even if you chase Clay over the top of the screen and get to him before he can shoot,

he's ripping through to the baseline, and there's nobody home. They have an incredibly sophisticated offense, and you have to be incredibly sharp. You have to communicate, you have to play hard, you have to rotate, you have to apply ball pressure, so their passing gets a little disrupted. There are so many things you have to do well to defend the warriors

it's a blender and the Kings, I'm just not sure they're up for it. It's a matchup that I do not see going the King's way. Last but not least, can the Warriors keep the Kings out of transition? A couple of specific stats. Only the Houston Rockets turn the ball over more than the Golden State Warriors. Now, to be clear, a lot of people view it as recklessness, and don't get me wrong, the Warriors can be reckless from time to time. more has to do with passing. So the vast majority of teams run a dribble attack offense.

So it's some kind of, you know, get a guy coming off of some type of screen, whether it's a dribble handoff or an off ball wide pin down or a pick and roll. And that guy is just trying to attack. And he's making reads. So there might be a handful of passes on every possession. But for them, they have a lot of possessions, these high pick and roll teams, especially, where there's not a single pass, you know, you know, Dary Scarlane will dribble the up the floor and call for a ball screen, and if the dude goes under the screen, or if he can get to the 15-foot mark, he's taking a 15-foot jump shot, there might not be a single pass on that possession. The Warriors pass the ball more than any team in the league. They accomplish less

off the dribble and more with the pass than any team in the league. And so by virtue of all those passes, there's just more opportunity for turnovers. And they do turn the ball over a lot. here's the problem the kings play in transition on more than 20% of their possessions which is the most in the entire league they convert steals into points at a rate of 1.42 points per possession which is very very good so one of the biggest ways that golden state can breathe life into the kings here or give them a chance to win this series is by not taking care of the basketball. And again, there's going to be turnovers. They throw a million passes. But it's the difference between averaging 15 turnovers a game for the series

or averaging 19 turnovers a game for the series could be the difference between whether or not you win or lose. This King's team, I think, again, we talked about this earlier with the two-on-two action. I believe the Warriors are capable of getting stops in the half-court of this series in a way that the Kings cannot. but if you allow them to get out in transition a ton, it will mitigate that advantage and put this series into much more of a toss-up type of territory. So it's vitally important for Golden State to take care of the basketball in this series.

I'm picking the Warriors in six. I was tempted to pick them in five, but I think the Wiggins piece and some of the transition elements and just kind of getting up to speed to the postseason level of play will be a little bit of a disadvantage for Golden State early in the series. I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped game one. I expect them to steal one of the first two in Sacramento and then win games three and four,

lose game five, and then win game six. That's my best guess as of right now. And again, I did the same rant yesterday for Cavs Nix, but predictions are just predictions. They're just my best guesses based on what I see on film. If any of us were capable of predicting every playoff series, we'd all be in Vegas making money. gambling on these things.

There's eight first-round series. I'm going to pick them. I'm not going to get all of them right. As a matter of fact, if I do, it'll be lucky. And my guess is you guys with your predictions will have similar luck, right? So again, I'm just doing my best to make these guesses, these predictions, but I'm not, you know, not, no Stradamus here. I can't, you know, see the future. And that's the beauty of the game of basketball.

You got to play the games. The Warriors are a significant favorite. I believe they're going to win. they have the best player. They have all these advantages, but you got to go play the games. And the games could go either way. And that's the beauty of the game of basketball.

I'm picking the Warriors because I think they'll score easily against the Kings. I think they have the personnel to get enough stops in the half court against the Kings. And I think they have the best player in the series by a mile. Now, similar to what I did with Cavs Nicks yesterday, I want to give the case for how the kings can win. If the kings want to win the series, they need to run as much as possible to generate as many easy points in transition as possible.

Another huge advantage of running out in transition is generating cross-matches. So, for instance, if you're having a ton of success by stopping Deer & Fox and Subonis with Gary Payton and Draymond Green, if you push the ball in transition, you might get more possessions where Clay Thompson is on Deer and Fox,

or where Steph Curry is on Deer and Fox, or where somebody else is on DeMontas-a-Bonis because Draymond didn't get down the floor in time. Like pushing in transition generates cross-matches, and then you have so much shooting on the floor that they can't scram out of those, gives you an opportunity to run those actions with better advantages, right? So pushing in transition is a big one. Secondly, Mike Brown has to find a good balance of offensive and defensive talent. My guess is that they'll end up going with somebody like Terrence Davis or Kessler Edwards,

even Davy on Mitchell over one of Keegan Murray or Kevin Herder as the series progresses when he realizes that he needs more defensive talent on the floor. But finding that balance without sacrificing too much offensively but giving your defensive fighting chance, that's what can give you a chance to stay in these games. And then when you stay in the games, you need Deere and Fox to somehow at least play near Steph Curry's level. Doesn't have to outplay him necessarily, but he needs to get near Steph Curry. F. Curry's level for the Kings to have any chance to win the series. All right, guys, that is all I have for right now.

We're going to be coming back later tonight after the final buzzer of Lakers Wolves to break down the 278 games. Wednesday, I should have at least two more series previews for you guys. Thursday, we're doing a kind of like a bigger picture playoff preview with Carson, and then we'll have a couple more season previews on Friday, and then we get into the grind on Saturday. Thank you guys, and I'll see you later tonight. Of all you.

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