The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Lakers-Nuggets Predictions: Will LeBron James & LA FINALLY break their Denver curse?

Episode Date: April 18, 2024

Jason Timpf shares his predictions for LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers' matchup with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and the Denver Nuggets. With Denver having eight straight wins over Los Angeles, including a 4-0 sweep in last season's Western Conference Finals, Jason discusses the key matchups the Lakers must win in order to turn the tide in this matchup. Later, Jason breaks down film from prior Lakers-Nuggets games and shares his series prediction. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Angeles Lakers beat the New Orleans Pelicans. So we're going to be breaking down the four-game sweep in the Western Conference finals last year, the Denver Nuggets versus the Los Angeles Lakers. You guys know the joke before we get started, subscribe to our brand of a YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT, so you guys don't miss any show announcements, as well as the film threads that I do from time to time. Don't forget about our podcast feed, wherever you get your podcast under hoops tonight.

And last but not least, keep following me on Twitter. Or, excuse me, keep leaving mailbag questions in the YouTube comments so we can keep keep hitting some mailbags over the course of the rest of this week. All right, on that note, let's talk some basketball. So the Nuggets won the season series, three to zero. I believe they've won eight in a row dating back to their final regular season matchup from last year, the four-game sweep and then three-and-o this year. In terms of per possession basis this year in three games, the Denver Nuggets are getting 125 points per 100 possessions. And the Lakers are getting 115 points per 100 possessions. But most of that has been in the clutch.

in seven minutes of clutch basketball this season. And again, clutch qualifies as anything inside of five minutes, inside of five points. And in seven minutes of clutch basketball the season, the nuggets have outscored the Lakers 27 to 10. So that's pretty much a beat down in that environment. Last year in the postseason, in 11 minutes of clutch basketball, they outscored the Lakers 28 to 13. That's basically been the difference between these two teams in that matchup.

The Lakers, they are capable of attacking Denver in the paint. they get a bunch of good shots, they keep the game close, and then late, they just can't keep up with them in the half court, and the nuggets just execute and pull away. It's a problem that the nuggets give most teams in the league, but the Lakers in particular, it's not even one of those things where it's like, oh, they get us two out of three times. No, they get them every single time, and that's been the main dynamic that has swung this matchup over the course of the last couple of years. Last year, it was mostly the defense. They held the Lakers. to a 68.4 offensive rating in crunch time during the four-game sweep.

This year, it's mostly about Denver's offense. During the regular season, they're scoring 193 points per 100 clutch possessions in those three games. So that's where the difference has been. On the gambling front, the nuggets are minus 310 to win the series, according to Draft Kings. That is the biggest first-round favorite so far of the five series that are set by far. The Cleveland Cavaliers at minus $195 over the Orlando Magic are the second biggest favorite that we have in the first round. So Vegas views Denver as a shoe in to move on.

The biggest difference between this series and last year is that the Lakers are much more of an offensive-minded team than they were last year. To give you an idea, last year, the line of delineation was the Westbrook trade. After the Westbrook trade, the Lakers won 18 and 8. They were second best record in the league over that span. They were 14th in offense and second in defense.

It was a defensive-minded team, and they rode that to wins versus the Grizzlies and the Warriors before they ran into that Nuggets Juggernaut. This year for me, the line of delineation is January 7th. And basically what it was was they completely let go of the rope after the in-season tournament. And that was a game against the Clippers that kind of re-engaged the Lakers. And from that point on in the season, they went 30 and 16. They were the fourth best record in the league over that 46th. game span, and they were third in offense in 22nd in defense. So to look at that again,

they were second in defense, 14th in offense last year in their stretch run. This year, third in offense, 22nd in defense. So fundamentally different type of team. One little line of optimism for Lakers fans who were worried about their defense, because I do think the Lakers are a little bit better defensively than their numbers show. They have a 104 defensive rating in their last 10 games with Anthony Davis on the floor, which is very good. You saw the high-level defense that they showed versus the Pelicans for stretches. That's trending in the right direction. But even though to kind of like tie it altogether, I do think the Lakers are a little better than they were last year.

And so from that standpoint, I would be shocked if Denver swept them. We could skip ahead to the end here. I'm going to be picking Denver to win the series. Everybody should. Even if you think the Lakers have a chance to win the series, it is the unlikely scenario compared to Denver holding serve and moving on. So I would be surprised if I saw anybody legitimately saying they thought the Lakers were likely to win the series, I'm picking Denver.

That said, I don't think they're just going to run rough shot over them the way that they did last year. I think it will be a longer series. And that is the main reason why. I just think it's better Laker team. LeBron's better. The offense is way better. We'll get into some of the details here in just a minute.

So let's start with the Lakers on offense. Third in offense over the last 46 games, like I mentioned. How? It's a relentless paint attack. in deadly three-point shooting. The Lakers are second in points in the paint per 100 possessions since January 7th. They've been second for the entire season, really. But they're also shooting much better.

That's been the main thing that kind of pushed them over the top. They're shooting 39.6% from three in that 46-game span. Second best mark in the league behind the Boston Celtics, who I think are at 39.9%. So they're both right there around 40%. The Lakers have been one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league. Just imagine five outsets, guys rolling and cutting towards the paint, tons of shooting on the perimeter.

Everybody in the lineup, except for Anthony Davis, is a knockdown three-point shooter. Rui Hachamura is a knock-down three-point shooter. LeBron James is a knock-down three-point shooter. So is D-Lo, so is Austin. And so that kind of is the foundation of what makes the offense work. Screening and rolling and cutting, knocking down shots when the defense reacts. And they're really good at playing advantage basketball. Typically what they'll do is they'll run some kind of horn set,

usually some kind of three-man action around the top of the key, whether it's a double drag or whether it's a screen the screener type of action. You guys will see some examples when we get into our film session here, but they'll run some sort of three-man action to get an advantage. Once they get their advantage from there, they just play advantage basketball. And like, LeBron can attack closeouts, Ruehach-Murra can attack close-outs. Austin and Delo can attack close-outs. And obviously Anthony Davis cleans up everything around the basket.

He's also first in the NBA this year in second chance points. That's where he gets a lot of his damage. They get the defense in rotation. AD will clean up messes at the rim when guys miss shot. So matchups that I'm expecting with the Lakers on the ball, Lakers on the offensive end, KCP will guard D'Angelo Russell to start the series. Jamal Murray will guard Austin Reeves. Michael Porter Jr. will guard Rui Hachamura.

Aaron Gordon will guard LeBron James and Nicola Yokic will guard Anthony Davis. Let's go through some of these specific matchups. So there's a reason why they're most likely going to put KCP on D'Angelo Russell. I do think Austin Reeves is a better all-around basketball player than DeAngelo Russell. He's a substantially better defensive player and a really good connective piece on the offensive end of the floor. But Delo does have a higher offensive ceiling.

He's a better shooter who can get hotter and he's a better kind of like playmaker and pick and roll. And so you can do more damage to the Lakers' offense on the front end by putting your best perimeter defender on DeAngelo Russell. That's why I think they'll put Casey P on him. So the Jamal Murray on Austin Reeves matchup is going to be key because last year one of the big swing factors was the Lakers ended up playing a lot of Dennis Schroeder,

especially because D. Lo was playing like crap and because they were trying to find somebody that could reasonably guard Jamal Murray. And so the Lakers had a lot of success with Austin LeBron two-man game last year. And then basically what they did is they switched Jamal Murray off of Austin and put him onto Dennis Schroeder because Dennis is not as good of a movement shooter or off ball player and they were able to kind of get by with it. So one of the key parts of this series is going to be,

can the Lakers keep Austin and Dilo on the floor? Because if they can keep Austin and Delo on the floor, then they can run their Austin-Lebron two-man game or Delo LeBron two-man game, depending on who Jamal Murray is guarding and keep Jamal Murray engaged defensively. You guys will see when we get to the film, one of the biggest things the Nuggets will do is basically tuck Jamal Murray on the worst offensive player on the other team and try to buy him as much rest during the game as possible.

During the latest matchup that they had in March, down the stretch, the Lakers went with Cam Reddish, something that I got, I hope we do not see in this series because he can't guard Jamal and he just nukes their offense. But Jamal Murray was guarding Cam Redish and literally just standing around and watching stuff happen while the other guys played offense. And so big shock, he had the leg strength to rise up and make shots on the other end of the floor.

So one of the key matchups of this series is going to be, can Austin Reeves and DeAngelo Russell remain on the floor together so that Jamal Murray has to guard a good offensive player? If Jamal Murray has to guard a good offensive player, the Laker offense will have more resiliency in terms of holding up over the course of the series. Specifically, the Jamal Murray on Austin Reeves dynamic, which is where this series will start. Last year, they were doing a lot of pick and pops. So, like, Austin's a good movement shooter. So Austin would set the screen, slip to the three-point line. As Jamal Murray's hedging, LeBron would throw the pass to Austin,

Austin would hit a three. This year, the guard screens on LeBron are more slipping into open space. A big part of that's just the spacing provided by their five out. But you'll see Austin set screens and then slip into like the short roll area. And then there he'll either score if he's open enough or he'll make reads and kind of pick them apart from there. But like as long as Jamal Murray is on Austin Reeves, expect Austin Reeves to be involved in a lot of actions early and often in this series. I think honestly one of the biggest factors for Denver defensively in the series is going to be their rotations, meaning how good and sharp they are in their closeouts, chasing guys off the three point line, multiple efforts to contain multiple

actions because I do think the Lakers are going to be able to get them in rotation a lot more than they did last year. They just have a lot more offensive skill and continuity and they're just better within their offense this year. So I do think they're going to be able to get Denver in rotation. Denver's just going to have to do their job in rotation with their athleticism within their game plan, funneling guys in the right direction, chasing the right guys off the line, closing out short on the guys that you're supposed to, guys like Gabe Vincent, guys like Anthony Davis, guys like Spencer Dinwiddie, for instance. Game plan discipline is going to be big there. Aaron Gordon on LeBron, this is where these playoff matchups kind of show where Aaron Gordon's value is.

Like LeBron James Coil Leonard and Kevin Durant are the three best forwards in the Western Conference. And he matches up really well with all three of them. And then if you get out of the Western Conference and you run into a Boston or you run into a Miami or you run into a Milwaukee and it's Jimmy or Tatum or Janus and Tenacompo, he matches up with those guys too. He has the strength to absorb the bully ball from those guys and the length and quickness to bother. the pull-up shooting of those guys. I'm going to show you a bunch of examples on film of how Aaron Gordon can, like, beat LeBron to spots, absorb the contact in the chest when LeBron tries to kind of dislodge him and force him into tough fade-away jump shots.

It's just one of the few guys in the league that can like actually guard LeBron credibly well. And LeBron's jump shot is going to be key in this regard. So last year in the regular season, LeBron was getting 0.93 points per catch and shoot jumper, 0.87 points per pull-up jumper. Last year in the playoffs, LeBron was getting 0.96 points per catch-and-shoot jumper, 0.6-7 points per pull-up jumper.

So he was just a bad jump shooter all season last year, from the regular season all the way through the playoffs. This year, in the regular season, LeBron was getting 1.25 points per catch-and-shoot jumper. He was one of the best catch-and-and-shoot guys in the league, and 0.94 points per pull-up jumper, which is far more respectable than the 0.67 that he was. was shooting last year. And so he's actually trending up on the pull-up jump shot as well post-all-star break,

where I personally think LeBron's playing at an extremely high level. We'll get to that in a second. But since the all-star break, LeBron's getting 1.03 points for pull-up jumper, too. So he's been a very efficient pull-up jump shooter in that span. He's just a much better jump shooter overall than he was last year. They're going to need him to make shots in this series. LeBron is probably the biggest point of optimism for any Laker fan in this series. After the All-Star break, LeBron James, is averaging 28 points, 8 rebounds, and 10 assists per game on 58% from the field, which is absurd and 45% from 3. He's the only player in the league post-deadline to be averaging at least 27 points per game on at least 50% from the field and at least 40% from 3. You just watched

him in two super important games against the New Orleans Pelicans on the road, just utterly dominate them. I personally think he's been the third best player in the league post-all-Star break and I would pick him as the third best playoff player going into this playoff run. That is the level that LeBron is playing at right now, especially with Janus being injured and with Kawhi Leonard being injured. I would put Yokic at one, I'd put Luca at two and I'd put LeBron James at three. That's the level he's at. And he's been there for a couple of months. That is where that is where the point of optimism is, right? Because last year he was hurt. And even when he wasn't hurt to start the season, he wasn't

this level of player. He was struggling to shoot just wasn't at the same level. LeBron is just better now than he was last year. That's crazy. It doesn't make any sense. I don't really have an explanation for you other than he just got in the gym and polished some things up and had another level of motivation. But LeBron is just at a different level this year. Last year, obviously, like with the foot injury too, it just kind of exacerbated that. I thought Jamal Murray just straight up outplayed LeBron James in the playoffs last year. That is something that I don't think will happen this year. I think LeBron will outplay Jamal Murray, or at least meet him at that top-tier superstar level. And obviously, if Jamal can meet everybody there, then that's just part

of what makes Denver so damn good, right? But I do think that LeBron outplaying Jamal would go a long way towards stretching out the series from the four-game suite that it was to something that's more competitive. Yokochan Ad, AD just hasn't been able to score on him one-on-one. In the February game, the middle game of the three games they played this year, AD did get some. buckets against him in the post. But for the most part in their matchups, it hasn't worked out well for him. 80's biggest weakness as a player is he never developed a consistent over-the-top shot, whether it's something in the post or something in terms of a jump shot.

And so he's had times where he can make it, but it's never been consistent. And then he can't bully Nicola Yokic the way he does some of the other centers around the league. And since he's bulked up, he's not fast enough to go around him anymore. So he just can't really score on him one-on-one. So really it's going to come down to punishing Yokic and help. That means when Yokage is in ball screens, 80 has to hit his floaters and his short jump shots that he gets in pick and roll. And then he's got to attack the offensive glass effectively.

Anthony Davis got 342 second chance points this year, which is the most in the NBA. Rudy Gobert was second. Nicole Yokic was third. So that's where Anthony Davis can be impactful offensively. Scoring in pick and roll. And then obviously attacking the offensive glass. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

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A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'll say. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where

you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim?

Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because,

of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?

Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your Keyes for both teams. For the Nuggets, you got to prevent DeAngelo Russell from getting easy looks and getting confident. Last year, the Nuggets snatched DeAngela Russell's heart early in the series and it fundamentally changed the entire dynamic of the series. That is something they have to do again. If they can do that again, it could get ugly. And then we could be looking at a sweep again because the Laker offense, when D.Lo goes off the court does go down a level because of the lack of that kind of like shooting upside, right? And then you just go from having five really good offensive players to four really good

offensive players and a guy that you can close out short on and things aren't as effective. And so just KCP getting super physical with DLO and getting him off to a rough start in this series, I think is going to be key. Being sharp in rotation, like I said, the Lakers are really good at getting that ball to the second side of the floor and generating close out opportunities for their offensive players. All five of their guys in their starting lineup can capitalize on that type of advantage. got some guys off the bench who can do it too. So solid closeouts and contests will be key for Denver.

And then they have to keep Anthony Davis off the offensive glass. This is going to be more about Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon because I do think Yokic is going to get pulled into help situations quite a bit in their pick and roll coverages. So your 2, 610 guys at the 3 and 4 are just going to have to clean up the glass. On the Lakers front, AD's got to make shots in pick and roll. He's going to get looks. He has to knock him down.

They have to win the driving kick battle. Like I said, LeBron is going to get the ball to the opposite side of the floor. He's going to generate those closeout situations. So Rui, Dilo, and Austin are going to have to hit shots, and they're going to have to attack closeouts and hit higher level closeout shots when they get into late clock situations. Backup guard shooting. I think Spencer, Dinwiddie, and Gabe Vincent are going to play a little bit in this series

because of needing to find somebody that can guard Jamal Murray. And so those guys can go ice cold from three and struggle offensively. And so getting at least one of those guys to be impactful offensively so that they can play him as an option on Jamal Murray, I think is going to be key. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have to be able to score in crunch time. They are combined, one for five from the field in clutch situations against the Nuggets this year. They were one for nine in the playoffs last year. So two for 14 from LeBron James and AD during the seven game losing streak against the Nuggets

when the game is within five with less than five minutes left. They have to be better than that. End of story. No other way to put it. You need your stars to hit shots when Jamal Murray and Nicola Yokic are damn sure going to hit shots on the other end of the floor. And then lastly, got to find a way to keep Jamal engaged defensively as much as possible. A big part of their issue is Jamal Murray just finds a way to rest on the defensive end and then he has the fresh likes to knock down shots. That's where that key dynamic of keeping your best offensive players on the floor and holding up well enough so that you can make Jamal Merck or Jamal work.

and then maybe just maybe he'll miss some of those shots and give yourself a better chance of pulling out a few of those clutch games. Moving to the Nuggets on offense. I think Austin Reeves is going to start on Jamal Murray. DeAngela Russell will guard Contavius Cobble Pope. LeBron James will likely start on Michael Porter Jr. based on the regular season matchups. Rui Hachamura will likely guard Yokic based on the regular season matchups and Anthony Davis

will guard Aaron Gordon to start the series. So starting with Austin, will Austin be able to do a good enough job? Austin is playing the best defense of his career as of late by necessity. The Lakers did not bring in a point of attack defender at the deadline, at least not a starting caliber one. And so Austin had no choice but to basically slot into that primary point of attack defense role. Struggled with it at first, but it's really starting to come around as a decent point of

attack defender. Did a really good job on C.J. McCollum in the, did a really nice job on C.J. McCollum in those two Pelicans games. But on film, from what I saw, kind of struggled. navigate Nicola Yokic's ball screens. It's been an issue for him, so it will be a challenge. But if he can do an okay job and the Lakers can stay with their starters in crunch time, again, gives them their best chance to score on the other end and then kind of maintain that confidence level they need to be able to win. And again, like I mentioned before, if they have to

go to a defender, the Lakers instantly become way easier to guard and things just fall apart from there. DeLo's off-ball attentiveness. This is part of why Denver is such a bad matchup for de Angela Russell. He's bad. off the ball, especially when it comes to locking and trailing shooters in watching out for cutters. And so we saw that just the other day against the Golden State Warriors when Clay Thompson lit him up. DeLo just doesn't stay attentive when he's chasing guys off of screens. He gets caught late and gives up too many open looks. He just has to be better. End of story. It's going to be one of the key factors of the series, as I mentioned. That is another way for KCP to play DeAngelo

Russell off the floor. It's just on both ends of the floor. Pressure, physicality, making him struggle offensively and then on the other end punishing him consistently. Denver should keep KCP involved in actions a lot early in the series to try to test DeAngelo Russell. So LeBron guarding Michael Porter Jr. is more about resting than it is about anything else. I think this series eventually needs to tilt towards LeBron and AD guarding Yokic and Gorda. Rui does a good job. He tries, but he's just not strong enough to deal with Nicola Yokic. Obviously, neither is LeBron, but he's stronger than Rui and can do a very job. better job than Rui does. So like it's fine if you want to start the series with LeBron and MPJ

and rest him as much as possible, but especially in crunch time and potentially for entire games later in the series, LeBron is going to have to take at least one of Gordon or Yokic and they're going to have to, and also I believe in mixing up coverages just in general as a philosophy. The last two games this regular season in February and March, they almost exclusively went with Rui on Yokic and just couldn't get any stop. So like I get it for innings eating, but they're going to have to be able to go to LeBron and AD as much as possible. Rui just can't guard Yokic. I've got like a half dozen clips that I'll show you guys of Yokic just easily scoring over the top of Rui Hachemura.

AD had some success blocking Yokic shots behind Rui, but for the most part, the coverage just hasn't worked. Keys for both teams, for the Lakers, the big thing I'm going to be calling out on film is smart help versus dumb help. We're going to go over that on film. But again, there are guys that you just should never help off of. and then there are guys that you can help and close out short on, right? There are shots that are high priority, shots that are low priority. I'll show you guys some examples of bad help and good help when we get to the film, but it's all going to be about decision-making and game plan discipline for the Laker off-ball defenders.

LeBron and AD, like I mentioned before, going to have to take the Yokic assignment at some point, especially towards the end of the series. Austin and Dilo. Austin has to do a credible job on Jamal Murray to keep their best offensive lineups on the floor, and Dilo has to be attentive off the ball, and then rebounding. Denver got an offensive rebound on 35% of their own misses in the three matchups this year. That's insane. And it's been a major problem for the Lakers throughout this entire matchup. They simply have to hold up better on the defensive glass.

To give you guys an idea, Denver dominated 55.8 to 44.2 in rebound percentage this season. Last year in the playoffs, it was less bad, but it was still bad, 51.5 to 48.5. Transition defense is going to be a big one. Nicole Yokich is really good at identifying when the Lakers don't have good floor balance and pushing the ball up the floor. Guys like LeBron and AD in particular have to sprint back in transition defense. One of the thing for the Lakers, because Yokic didn't shoot the ball as well this year, I would try a short close out on him at the three-point line just to start the series.

And look, if he hits a few shots, you adjust. But I think you have to try that just as an opportunity to see if maybe you can gain some foothold in the paint defending the rest of their offense. I would, again, close out short on Yokic at the three-point line. AD help. Like, I'll give you an example. There's a shot that I'll show you guys that Jamal Murray hits over Austin Reeves in crunch time of their last game this year. With how Yokic has been shooting the ball this year, I'd rather have Yokic take a three than Jamal Murray take a short fade away that I think he's going to make, you know, over 50% of the time.

And so essentially, like, specifically with this matchup to start the series, I try closing out short. Yes, I know Yokic is capable of making him. Maybe he does. If he does, the Lakers can adjust, but I think you got to try it. On the Nuggets front, again, play D-Lo off the floor and you'll give your defense its best chance to slow down the Lakers. So on the offensive end, keep Contavius Cawwell-Pope involved in actions both on and off the ball to test D-Lo's attentiveness and see if you can get the quick hook there or get his minutes cut down. Push and transition every single time Anthony Davis goes to the offensive glass. That's always been a big advantage for the Nuggets in this matchup.

Attack the offensive glass as much as possible yourself. That's been a huge part of Denver success against the Lakers is. Lakers can't keep them off the offensive glass. And then shot making, once again, is going to be key. Jamal making shots over the smaller Laker guards and the Nicole Yokic, because I think the Lakers will try closing out short at him to start, Yokich has to hit those pick and pop threes. My prediction, I'm picking the Nuggets in six.

I think this is going, I think this being a first round series makes it less likely for the Lakers to let go with a rope, right? They don't get to hang their hat on, we made it to the Western Conference finals. No, if you lose this series, it's a first round exit. I think that will allow a little bit more desperation from the Lakers to try to hold up. I think LeBron being better, as well as an evolution of their five-out offense gives the Lakers substantially more offensive firepower than they had last year, especially LeBron as a jump shooter. So I think the Lakers are going to get a game or two off of them. To put it simply, though, Yokits and Murray are a better duo than LeBron James and Anthony Davis,

in my opinion at this phase in their careers. And KCP, Michael Porter, Jr. and Aaron Gordon are a better trio of role players than Austin, D. Lo, and Rui Hachamura. So I just think the Nuggets are a better team, and I think they're going to win. But the pathway for the Lakers, that little crack in the door that they can try to force their way through, got to win game one. I think they need to give themselves a sense of belief that they can win the series. I think the worst-case scenario would be them getting out executed in crunch time of game one.

I think if that happened, it would just be too much of a gut blow. for them to try to recover from. But I think winning game one is key for them. And then I think they're going to need to win every single home game in order to try to pull it out in six. I think that's their pathway. But they're going to need unbelievable top-tier superstar performances from both LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

And I think they need Jamal Murray to fail to reach that level. I think they need Jamal Murray. And I think you can do this by wearing him out defensively and just kind of crossing your fingers and praying he misses shots. But if Jamal Murray plays like the 16th best player in the world, in this postseason instead of the eighth best player in the world in this postseason. That I think is an example of where the firepower dynamic could shift towards the Lakers, especially if AD plays well.

Now, a lot of that is unlikely scenario, right? Like, I think Dharvanham needs to make necessary adjustments along the way. Do I trust Dardenham to do that? No, right? So, like, a lot of that is unlikely, but if there was a path for the Lakers, that's what it looks like. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard,

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And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jek.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcasts.

All right. I have 29 clips for our film session today that we're going to go to. Let's go ahead and get started. This is an example of the Lakers base coverage that they go to. So you're going to see, again, after the ball goes up, you're going to see Anthony Davis go to Aaron Gordon. You're going to see Rui Hachamura, guard Nicola Yokic, and you're going to see LeBron James on Michael Porter, Jr. And you're going to see an easy early example here of this kind of configuration. So again, AD is going to be helping off of Aaron Gordon. Yokic is reading the floor here, but he's just going to get to an easy little pop shot over the top of Rui. Just never really struggled to get to his spots and make easy shots into paint against Rui.

Here's an example of Aaron Gordon's individual defense against LeBron James. Obviously, there's the fade away, but watch. LeBron's going to hit the Jets on a little baseline move here. He's going to spin baseline and really try to overpower Gordon and watch Aaron Gordon absorb the blow. Boom. absorbs the blow and forces him to turn again. Now LeBron's going to go to his right shoulder fade. I hate the shot from LeBron.

He hasn't been good at it really since the 2020. He was good at it in like 2017 to 2020. Those were the stretches when he was good at it. But he hasn't really been good at it since. This is a shot that requires a ton of lift. He's actually shooting just 26% on right shoulder fades from the left block this season. But Aaron Gordon forces an ugly miss here in airball. Here's an example of the Lakers base coverage actually working.

so Rui does a really nice job of making Yokic spin back into Anthony Davis. This is about knowing where your help is. So here, Rui has to understand Anthony Davis is on his left-hand side. So his main priority is he needs to cut off the baseline. Now, you could see Rui kind of skewing towards that baseline side, but Yokic is going to spin baseline anyway. Look at Rui hop way off to that baseline side. That forces Yokch to pivot back.

and Anthony Davis is able to get there. Again, that coverage is largely not worked, but that's an example of it working. Here's an example of making Jamal Murray work on defense. Now, again, as we see the matchups, Michael Porter Jr. is guarding Rui. Yokic is on AD, Gordon's on LeBron. This will be KCP on D. Angela Russell,

but also notice they're putting their best perimeter defender on D.Lo. That's kind of like what I was talking about earlier. That's going to be their strategy. This is going to end in a switch. Now Rui has Jamal Murray on him, and Rui just takes him. immediately with a spin move along the baseline side. Again, not only is that an efficient play,

but that's a way that you can make Jamal Murray work on the defensive end of the floor. And again, I don't think you can even do that unless you have five good offensive players. And that's why it's going to be so key to keep DeAngelo Russell on the floor as much as possible, or at least DeAngel Russell has to play well enough to stay on the floor as much as possible. Here's an example of smart help versus dumb help. I talked about this with the Lakers. they need to make sure that they're helping off the right guys in the right situations.

So Jamal Murray is going to be coming off of a classic little ball screen from Yokic and he's going downhill. LeBron James is there in help. LeBron is helping there with Aaron Gordon. Delo can become the low man. DeLo can drop down and tag Gordon, which will force Christian Brown to shoot a three, right? This is Michael Porter Jr. This is the one guy you don't help off of. Anthony Davis digs down on Jamal. Now you've got one of the best three-point shooters in the league wide open. Jamal Marie makes the read. Michael Porter Jr. knocks down the shot. So that's an example of dumb help. That's help that doesn't serve any purpose and leaves the wrong guy open. Here's another example of Yokic scoring easily over Rui Hachemura.

Big one here is Yokic got blocked on his last post-up attempt against Rui. So now, watch, he doesn't like the spacing here. He's going to clear Gordon out. But he doesn't want Anthony Davis to be able to easily get to one of his layup finishes. So instead of taking something towards the rim, he's going to take a short fade away. This is a really high percentage shot that Anthony Davis can't really help on. That's also an example of why I think LeBron James is eventually going to have to get into the mix. Rui Hachemur just can't really guard, just can't guard Yokish, not even make him slightly uncomfortable, whereas LeBron might be able to.

Here's another example of the Austin Rui two-man game, another switch. Rui settles for a jumper here, but I would like to see them just kind of go to this action a lot to make Jamal Murray guard. Here's Yokic scoring over Rui again. Little wedge screen to get post position. Just easy gets to his footwork, knocks down that little left shoulder fade. Here's an example of where that can go wrong for Yokich. Again, this is another Anthony Davis block along the back line.

But watch, Yokic is not taking it over the top shot. He's going towards the rim. Notice his last two where a turnaround fade away over his right shoulder, turn around hook shot over his left shoulder from distance. This is going to be an aggressive move towards the basket, and AD is going to be able to get to it. Again, see he goes to the rim, AD gets there.

That's where, that's where, like, for Yokic, just as an adjustment for him, when Anthony Davis is in help, he's going to have to take over the top shots. All righty, so here is another example of a help that I think Spencer didn't what he should have thrown, but didn't. So this would have been smart help had Spencer did it,

but he did not do it. So Spencer is guarding Peyton Watson, an iffy shooter, right? So Peyton Watson is going to go stand in the corner. Spencer is in best position to help here. Spencer and Rui are the helpers, right? Yokich is working against, Yokic is working against AD. He kind of gets AD a little bit onto his left side so he can get to a little right-handed hook. Rui probably doesn't need to help here because this is literally a 10-foot hook shot.

It's one of the lower percentage ones that Yokic will take. He obviously can make it, but I'd prefer Rui to stay home here. That said, if Rui's going to help, Spencer Dinwiddie can't have his back turned facing towards the worst shooter on the floor. That makes absolutely no sense. That is an example of not taking advantage of smart help. Dinwiddie should be dropping here to help on Gordon because Peyton Watson is not in position around the rim, but Gordon is. So when Yokic is in his deep drop coverage, shot making is going to be key. This is an example of DeAngel Russell, hitting a little fadeaway jumper over Justin Holliday in the drop coverage.

Look at how far back Yokic is. They're going to need Austin and Delo to hit these shots. Here's an example of a cross-screen set that I really, really like from Denver. And the main thing that makes this set work, in my opinion, is the actual floor setup. Notice where everybody is. So we've got 80s guarding Gordon in the left corner, right? From here we have Austin Reeves guarding Reggie Jackson. We have Justin Holliday spacing to the right corner.

We have Christian Brown actually setting this. screen. LeBron James is actually guarding Christian Brown. He's in help at the rim here. But watch as Yokic comes off of this screen, AD ends up having to show, right? So because AD has to show here, that leaves an easy baseline cut from Aaron Gordon. Now, one of the things I'd like to see the Lakers do to counter this is have LeBron James be more active in help. He kind of took this possession off. That's not going to be good enough. But I do love the configuration to the set. This is actually a perfect little freeze frame. If Ruey's going to chase, then AD has to show, which easily opens up the cut along the baseline side.

And that's definitely a lob, not a shot. Here's an example of DeAngelo Russell being inattentive off the ball defensively. So Justin Holliday is just going to come up like he's coming off of this wide pin down, but then he's going to slip. Watch. Boom. Just easy little back cut on DeAngelo Russell. He's not paying attention, gives up a dunk.

That's just not going to cut it in this matchup. Denver just makes you pay every single time you make that kind of mistake. So one of the reasons why I have some optimism for the Lakers in this matchup centers around the fact that the Lakers did a bunch of stupid stuff over the course of this regular season. Obviously in the matchup earlier in the year, I think it was in, it was either late January or early February. DeAngelo Russell didn't play. The Lakers are just a different offensive team when DeAngelo is not out there. But this one, Dilo was healthy and out there.

and the Lakers starters actually won their minutes in this game, but down the stretch of the game, Darvinham went heavy into Cam Reddish. And Cam Reddish is one of the worst offensive players in the league in a not very good perimeter defender, but he, for some reason, has a reputation with Darvinham as being a good perimeter defender. Your guess is as good as mine.

But I got some footage in here just kind of demonstrating that Cam Reddish is not actually capable of guarding Jamal Murray. So my hope is that we don't see Cam in this series. Just he's not actually staying, glued, he's not bothering him, he's not pressuring him, he's not making him feel uncomfortable. That's like one of the easiest shots he'll ever see Jamal Murray take. So, these next two clips are an example of a set that the Lakers can run that I think has some success against Denver. These are double drag sets. So LeBron's going to have the ball.

This is the setup of a double drag. So we've got our shooters in the corners. These are both dead eye catch and shoot guys that you can't leave open, right? LeBron James is our primary ball handler. DeAngelo Russell is setting the first. first screen, Anthony Davis is setting the second screen. So what's going to happen here is AG's going to chase over the top and Yokic is going to be in a high drop, right? So Gordon's chasing. Yokic is on the high drop. That means because Gordon's on the high drop, or excuse me, because Yokch is in the high drop, that means Anthony Davis can slip behind the action. But because you've brought the size in Gordon and Yokch out here, it's smaller players on the back line. Christian Brown is going to stay home to be ready to deal

with DeAngelo Russell. So DeAngel Russell is covered, but AD is getting tagged by Jamal Murray, and AD just easily catches and finishes at the basket. So the Lakers run it again on the very next trip down the floor, and this time they switch the first screen. So here we go. Same exact action. Now notice, as it's happening, Aaron Gordon is now going to allow Christian Brown to take

LeBron. So Christian Brown is trying to fight through that screen. Yokic is in the high drop. Here's our high drop configuration. but instead, Aaron Gordon, instead of prioritizing DeLo, he prioritizes the role. Why is he prioritizing the role? Because Anthony Davis just got a bucket there. LeBron makes the kickout pass.

DeLo misses this shot, but that's a fantastic look. So double drag with DeLo, LeBron, and AD is going to be an action that I'd like to see the Lakers run a lot in this series. Here's another example of excellent individual defense by Aaron Gordon on LeBron. This is going to come out of one of the Lakers' favorite sets, which is a little dribble pitch with LeBron on the right wing. So what they'll do is they'll have Dilo set a little pin down, but this is just basically a dribble pitch to LeBron.

And again, look at Gordon, jump out there. He actually gets out there enough because LeBron's been one of the best catch-and-chew players in the league this year, as I said, he's up at like a point in a quarter per shot. So Gordon has to get out there. So look, he's caught on this screen. LeBron could catch and shoot, but watch this athletic move from Gordon to close the gap. Boom.

That takes away the jumper. Now LeBron sees this driving angle and is trying to attack it. watch Gordon somehow recover and beat him to the spot. Now he's beat him to the spot, and now he's turned LeBron into the tough fadeaway jump shot. Now, again, LeBron can make that shot, and he has been making that shot a lot this season, but LeBron is one of the most efficient guys around the basket. So he's turning LeBron from the more efficient version of himself into the less efficient version of himself. Here's an example of the high firepower in the Laker offense, and this is a bench group, too,

with Tarin-Prince and Spencer Dinwiddie out there. So we're going to get multiple actions. We get a little brush screen for Spencer Dinwood. that's going to flow into a double screen for DeAngela Russell. Jamal Murray does a good job in their high drop. They tag Anthony Davis. Spencer Dinwiddie's not a good enough three-point shooter for him to be much of a threat. Ball gets swung to Tori and Prince.

Torian Prince drives, kicks to Delo. Delo swings it around to Spencer Dinwiddie. Now we're running another screening action. We're going to get a low drop this time because Spencer's not as good of a shooter. So multiple screening actions, a bunch of ball and player movement, and Denver has defended it well. But ball gets swung with seven seconds left to Rui Hatchammer. Ruy Hachemurah has a size advantage against Peyton Watson, works his way into the lane,

hits a nice little fadeaway jump shot over his right shoulder. So again, this Laker offense is a lot more high power than it was last year just by the way it's configured every player on the roster in the core group kind of playing better than they did last year. It's a big part of why I expect them to hold up a little bit better offensively in this series. Here's another example of Cam Redis just not being able to make Jamal Murray uncomfortable. A little hedge and recover from DeLo.

So again, he's ball pressuring this time. at least a little bit, but watch how easily Jamal shakes him here. And again, like, I would understand, like, it was Jared Vanderbilt. Like, let's say Jared Vanderbilt returns in this series. And I reached out to my guy Yovan Buha and asked him and he said he's still in his conditioning ramp up. So, like, there's no timetable necessarily for him to return. He may not even show up in this series. Jared Vanderbilt's the one guy where I'm like, oh, he might not be as good offensively, but he's actually going to be able to make Jamal Murray feel a little bit uncomfortable. That is the reason why I would lean that way if he was healthy.

But I mean, what's crazy with that, though, is even Jared Vanderbilt, as limited as he is, is a much better offensive player than Cam Reddish because of his ability to operate within the five-out offense. Again, I just like Cam Reddish, good kid, getting a lot better over the years, but not really a rotation NBA player for a good team should not see the floor in this series. Here's an example of some dumb help from Spencer Dinwiddie. So Spencer Dinwiddie here is guarding Michael Porter Jr. Michael Porter Jr. is going to come off of a screening action on this side of the floor. But this is what's bothering me about this specific set.

So Yokit is setting a little back screen for Justin Holliday. Aaron Gordon's running like a fake D.H.O. With Jamal Murray, so you've got Jamal Murray and Justin Holliday coming downhill. But you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis there in help to contain that action. Spencer Dinwiddie, for some reason, stunts in the lane to offer extra help. As soon as he does, Michael Porter Jr. flashes up high and ends up getting a clean look at three as a result or clean look at a jump shot as a result. That's the type of attentiveness off the ball and avoiding the bad help that I'm talking about. Here's another example of the LeBron Austin Reeves two-man game and their ability to get downhill. So again, this is coming against Justin Holliday, who closed this particular game instead of Christian Brown. But I imagine this is Contavius Caldwell Pope. Also, this is when the Lakers had Spencer Dinwood. and Cam Radish on the floor to non-shooters. But just imagine this configuration in the actual game.

This would be Jamal Murray. Okay. This would in all likelihood be DeAngelo Russell. This would be DeAngel Russell. And this would be Rui Hachamur, right? So like in this case, Jamal Murray is going to be on the ball, which means that Contavius Cald will pop is going to be down here on Dilo. So with this action, they're not going to want to switch it.

So they are going to chase, which is going to open up the pocket pass. Gordon is going to have to show. Otherwise, Aaron Gordon's going to get downhill. and that's going to open up little rolls to the rim for LeBron James. Again, I really want to see a lot of LeBron Austin two-man game in this series, especially when they're with their starting group. Another example of Cam Red is just not being able to guard Jamal Murray. I'm sorry for picking on him.

I'm still irritated about that game in case you guys can't tell. Here's an example of Austin Reeves hitting a little rescue possession shot over Jamal Murray. I think if Austin can do a little bit of this in this series to cancel out some of what Jamal does, that would go a long way. So again, late clock, five seconds left, hits a little turnaround jump shot over the top of Jamal Murray. That would be a big way for Austin to kind of minimize some of Jamal's impact. Here's another example of what would probably, I could go either way on this one, but I'm going to call it bad help. So,

Rui, getting attacked by Yokic, Anthony Davis trying to stunt, Anthony Davis clearly thinks that he's going to be able to get back in time to get to Gordon, but instead Austin Reeves abandons Justin Holliday to kind of box Gordon out. When he does, there's a wide open three for Justin Holiday. Watch Anthony Davis's reaction. He's like, what are you doing? Before it even goes in, he's like, what are you doing? So, like, again, part of that's just a predicament that Denver puts you in. You're going to get in some trouble there. But those are the types of smart help situations where it's like Aaron, or Justin Holliday is a really good corner three-point shooter. Probably can't leave him there. Probably have to trust Anthony Davis to try to clean that up. Here's yet another, Austin Reeves,

LeBron James Pick and Roll. Again, in a configuration in closing time, I think you you'd imagine this being, uh, uh, um, Jamal Murray actually guarding on the ball. One of the things I want you to keep an eye on on this possession, watch Jamal Murray. Hands on knees. Hands on knees. Hands are still on knees. Hands are still on knees. A little bit of a lunge step. Hands up. Okay. He's completely and totally in chill mode. And like when I tell you he was doing that the entire day home stretch of the game, that's the downside of going with the defensive personnel. So when I talk about how it's

important for Denver to play DeAngela Russell on the floor off the floor. That's why. Because if they can play DeAngela Russell off the floor, Jamal Murray can chill. If Jamal Murray can chill, then Jamal Murray will have the legs to make the shots. If you can wear him out a little bit, it'll be harder for him to make the shots and maybe he'll miss if you give yourself a better chance to win the game. But watch it one more time just to see the configuration again. Once LeBron sets the screen, it's going to be, that will be Jamal Murray chasing over the top. Gordon is going to be in a drop, which is going to open up LeBron James rolls to the rim. Here is another example.

This is crunch time. It's a one-point game with three minutes left. I really wanted to see the Lakers go to LeBron James or Anthony Davis on Yokic at this point. But nope, they stick with their base coverage. You get what you deserve. If you know this is going to happen and you know he can't handle it, like, of course. Like, what did you expect? Like, he's been doing that all game.

So like, again, eventually in this series, LeBron and AD are going to have to take more of the onus to guard and Koliokic. Here is the Jamal Murray shot over Austin Reeves. So we're going to skip down the floor. again, you can see Yokch's pointing. He's like, Yokic knows, is like, this is going to Jamal. He wants Jamal to take it. They're clearing the side. He weighs everybody off. He's pointing, telling everyone to clear out. Here comes. Now, like I talked about earlier, this is where I want to see Anthony Davis early in the series come down and offer double teams and basically offer late closeouts on Yokic just until he demonstrates that he can consistently knock down the three. Said they come with

baseline help from Rui. This is honestly good defense from everybody in involved. Austin, Jamal hit the same move on DeAngela Russell earlier in the game and gave up a layup. Here, Austin does absorb the contact and force him into a tough drifting fadeaway and Rui comes over and help. Now, mind you, Aaron Gordon's in really good offensive rebound position there, which is another reason why AD needs to come down. But this is honestly well defended. But that's a shot that Jamal Murray will miss more frequently if his legs are tired and you can't have his legs be tired if you have him chilling guarding Cam Reddish on the other end of the floor. Once again, watch Jamal Murray and Chill mode, guarding Cam Reddish. He's chilling. He's chilling.

He's chilling. We're going to get a LeBron AD pick and roll that LeBron rejects. He drops it off to AD. Michael Porter Jr., really nice defensive play at the rim there to block Anthony Davis. But just another example of Jamal chilling on Cam Reddish. And then here, just one more time to add insult to injury. Watch how easily Jamal just kind of works around Cam and gets all the way down into the lane. So yeah, those are the kinds of mistakes schematically that the Lakers cannot afford, especially for Darvinham to make. But anyway, you guys can see on film, the main kind of things I'm talking about. It's going to be very important to keep the Lakers best offensive players on the floor. For Denver, that's going to be the battle that they need

to try to win, is try to play one of the skill players off the floor to give themselves an opportunity to chill for Jamal Murray to chill, which will help improve his chances for shot making. You saw the damage on the offensive glass. You saw some of the transitions. stuff. You saw some of the matchups. You saw the job that Aaron Gordon can do. Again, I'm picking Denver to win, but I do think the Lakers have a chance, and I am expecting it to be a longer series. I think the biggest game of the series is game one. I think if the Lakers are going to have any chance to win this series, they have to go in and win game one. We will be going live on YouTube after the final buzzer on Saturday of game one of this series. So make sure you guys head over to

YouTube and see it there. Hope you guys enjoyed the breakdown. The game plan as of right now is tonight. We're going live after Sixers Heat. So I will see you. you guys on YouTube then. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying.

Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. On The Look Back at it podcast.

From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay and I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year.

It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for. black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.