The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - LeBron James & Lakers becoming a threat? Bucks struggling, Mavericks stay hot

Episode Date: April 9, 2024

Jason Timpf breaks down film for the LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers' win over the Cleveland Cavaliers and explains how LA is finding it's groove at the right time. Later, he reacts to Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks' big win over Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and the Milwaukee Bucks. What problems are still plaguing Milwaukee? Jason continues to break down film on the Indiana Pacers' win over the Miami Heat, Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic's big night in the Dallas Mavericks' win over the Houston Rockets, and lastly shares teams 10-7 in his Top 10 contenders ahead of the NBA Playoffs, including Steph Curry's Golden State Warriors. Timeline (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 04:00 - Introduction 07:38 - How Lakers have figured it out 29:47 - Bucks fall apart vs. Knicks 49:55 - Heat-Pacers film breakdown 53:45 - Rockets-Mavericks film breakdown 63:00 - Top 10 Contenders Teams 10-8 #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. See dkng.com slash B-Ball or eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms, and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Monday, everybody. Hope all of you guys had an incredible weekend. We have a completely jam-packed show today. We're going to be hitting a ton of stuff.

We're going to lead off the top going over the Los Angeles Lakers offense. Their four-game winning streak was snapped by LeBron James and Anthony Davis being out of the lineup against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but they've been playing really good basketball for a while, and we haven't had a chance with our new film software to look over how their offense has been succeeding. So we're going to do a deep dive into their offense, specifically in the Cavs game with a bunch of film. After that, the Milwaukee Bucks lost again to the New York Knicks after taking a pretty big first half lead. Their offense and defense fell apart in the second half. We're going to look into a bunch of film talking about why the Bucks have been struggling.

The heat and the pacer's had a showdown to determine not necessarily the, final result of their fates in the play in tournament, but a very, very important game for their fates in the standings in the Eastern Conference. And I thought the result of that game came down to three mistakes by the Miami Heat late. So we're going to take a look at that. After that, we're going to talk about a really fun game between the Mavs and the Rockets. Kyrie Irving has 48 points. Dante X-Im. It's a three to send the game to overtime. Maxi Kleba was just a monster on the defensive end at the end of that game. We got a bunch of film from that game as well. And at the end of the show, typically on Monday, we'd be doing power rankings.

But this is our last week of the regular season. Next week on Monday, we're going to be doing playoff previews. And so what I want to do is throughout this week, we're going to do 10, 9, and 8 today. But throughout this week, we're going to go through my top 10 championship contenders, essentially my final ranking of the team strictly within the context of their postseason potential. So at the end of the show, we're going to hit 10, 9 and 8 on that front. You guys know the drill before we get started, subscribe. to a brand new YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos.

Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT so you guys don't miss any show announcements as well as the film threads that I do from time to time. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under hoops tonight and then keep dropping mail back questions and those YouTube comments so we keep hitting them throughout the rest of this playoff run. And then also last but not least before we get started, now is the very best time of year to actually get out and go see a basketball game. These are the best players in the world playing in the highest stakes games that we can find.

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Use code hoops for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem code hoops. That's H-O-O-P-S for $20 off. Download game time today. Last-minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. All right, let's talk some basketball. So the Lakers, like I mentioned earlier, they had a four-game winning street going into that Minnesota Timberwolves game. And then LeBron James comes down with flu-like symptoms. And then Anthony Davis ends up re-agravating an eye injury that he had a little while back. And so he only played 12 minutes. The Lakers were plus four in his minutes. That didn't matter.

The Timberlil was pretty much controlled and dominated that game. Every Laker was slotted into a pretty difficult role. And they weren't able to hold up against Minnesota. But as many of you guys know, I've been pointing out on this show lately. that the Lakers have been really good for a long time. Since January 7th, they're 28 and 15. That is the fifth best record in the league in that span. That's a 43-game sample size, too.

That's more than half the season. As a matter of fact, I had this comment yesterday on the video from somebody saying like, oh, Jason got off the Lakers bandwagon and now he's trying to jump back on. And this is like literally, I think, one of the funniest types of comments that I get when, like, we have a sample size of information,

and I feel a certain way about it. And then we have new information, and I feel a different way about it, and now I'm accused of changing my mind. This is new information. Specifically, what got me off the Lakers bandwagon was they didn't address a personnel weakness, specifically at the point of attack.

And to that point in the season, they were a bad offense. They were a bad offense that also had a severe defensive weakness. And so they weren't even like the Lakers from last year, where it was like their offense was pretty mediocre, but at the very least between Dennis Schroeder and Jared Vanderbilt, they had a really good perimeter defense court to kind of like take some of those matchups and Anthony Davis anchoring things.

And that was how they won down the stretch from the Russell Westbrook trade through the end of the season, even through to the Western Conference finals. It was defense. He beat the Golden State Warriors in the playoffs with defense. That was what they did. The revelation with this Laker team has been on the offensive end of the floor. Since January 7th, they are fourth in offensive rating. They've been a dominant offense in this league for a very long time.

Their second in offensive ratings since February 1st. They're scoring in the paint like crazy. Their second points in the paint per 100 possessions over this 43 game span, they're second in three point percentage. Remember at the beginning of the season when I kept talking about how these guys just aren't shooting very well, but there's some good shooters. I'm hoping that these guys start making shots. They've been making shots.

And they lit up a Cavs team that is really good defensive personnel, although they've had their struggles with defense as of, late. But the point that I'm getting at here is this is fundamentally a different Lakers team than really any version of the Lakers that we've seen in the LeBron James Anthony Davis era. Going back to 2019 before AD got there, the year they won the title in 2020, even. 2021, 2022, 2023. They were a mediocre to bad offense consistently. And essentially, what has happened is through adding DeAngelo Russell, the development of Austin Reeves, adding Rui Hachamura last year before the deadline. The addition of the five-out offense, which was a real

struggle early in the season, and there was actually a point in the middle of the season where Darvinham kind of went away from it for a little while, then they went back to it, and it's kind of clicked in a lot of ways. And their offensive skill at every single position group has made that attack work. And there's been a bunch of different reasons why. And so I wanted to go into the film today from this matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers to just kind of talk about some of the ways that the Lakers have been having success offensively. So let's get over to the film. Okay, so this first clip that I wanted to demonstrate for you guys, remember how I've been talking about how Rui Hachemura ends up getting favorable matchups and can have a lot of success

as a result? This is an example against the Cavs where they're going up like they're going to run offense, but they identify that Rui Hachamura has George's kneeing on him. So because Max Trues has to take a higher leverage assignment, Donovan Mitchell has to take a higher leverage leverage assignment. Jared Allen has to guard Anthony Davis. Karis Lavert is on DeAngelo Russell. As a result, you're getting Rui Hachamura with George's kneeing on it. So he's got the weakest defender on the floor. Rui Hachamura has been a very, very good on an island scorer this year. He's been way over a point per possession in post-up situations as well. And he's just going to take George's Neang down to the block, back him down. Dilo, excuse me, Anthony Davis,

because he was kind of standing here at the elbow, Jared Allen was kind of digging down in his way. So AD is going to cut through to get Jared Allen out of there. That opens up this space for Rui to get to his right shoulder fade. And he does a really nice job here of initiating some contact, watch him kind of drop that shoulder and displace kneeing and then get up into the lane for his little patented little fallaway that he knocks down. Those are favorable matchups that Rui is getting every single game. This is a big part of why, like even with, I talk about the pros and cons of different types of data that we use in the NBA.

That's why even point for possession data has its limitations, because part of the reason why Rui has been so damn efficient in the post this year is he's consistently getting super favorable matchups down there. So the story of this particular game against Cleveland was the Lakers attacking a very specific type of pick and roll coverage that the calves were using. So the vast majority of teams that are serious basketball teams run different coverages for different spots on the floor. Every team that I played for on side pick and rolls, we did what was called an ice coverage,

which essentially involves in this situation. As this ball screen is going to get set, Darius Garland's entire job is to deny Austin the use of the screen and funnel him back towards the baseline side. And then Jared Allen is supposed to effectively catch him down here in this short corner area. So what you're going to see here, watch how Darius Garland jumps way up on Austin's high side. All he's doing is forcing him to go. go away from the screen. Jared Allen's there to catch. And what the calves were doing all game long is when Jared Allen would catch this ball handler coming off of the rejected ball screen,

they would use Evan Mobley, whoever was guarding the guy up top, but it was typically LeBron. And so they'd use Evan Mobley to tag Anthony Davis, and they were leaving LeBron James open at the top of the floor. So this first time through, the ball gets works to Anthony Davis. Anthony Davis hits LeBron at the top of key. And again, LeBron's been absolutely deadly in catch-and-chewat. situations this year. But keep in mind, that is just an example. We're going to see a bunch of those ice coverages here through the rest of this kind of video thread that we're going through. Here's the exact same type of concept. Now, what I think is super interesting here, D. Lo is going to set an impromptu screen on Jared Allen to prevent him from getting to his

spot in the ice coverage. Remember, same exact concept. Austin's got the ball. A.D. is going up and set the ball screen. But because D.Lo is screening Jared Allen, Jared is supposed to be down here. he's supposed to be down here to catch when Austin rejects the screen and basically drives into him so that they can use these other guys to kind of dig down on Anthony Davis. D.Lo's screen makes it so, because look, AD's not cutting. Ad's not going to the rim. He's not back screening Jared Allen so that AD can get a lob. He's back screening Jared Allen because he knows what the coverage is.

Delo just watched them run an ice coverage. He's trying to stop Jared Allen from being able to do his job. AD goes to set the pick. Donovan Mitchell jumps way high side. Did you see how Donovan Mitchell jumped way on that high side there? Again, forcing Austin back towards that sideline side. As he makes his move, watch Jared Allen. Now his feet are crossed and he's sprinting to get back into that position to catch Austin. That allows Austin to cross him over. So Austin beats him with the crossover. It gets all the way to the rim for a layup. That entire sequence is set up by DeAngelo Russell setting a random screen on Jared Allen to prevent him from

getting to where he's supposed to be. If Jared is just standing here, then when Austin rejects the screen, it's going to be much harder for him to cross him over. Watch Jared Allen's momentum and watch Austin cross him over as a result of the screen. See that? Such an interesting little kind of like trick that DeAngela Russell uses randomly setting screens. Keep that in mind because there's a couple more of those coming up here in the thread. So one of the most, common types of actions that the Lakers like to run with LeBron is have either Austin or DeLo screen for LeBron and then slip the action. The reason why is because most teams don't want to allow this smaller defender to get switched on to LeBron where he can take them to task using his size, right?

So Austin is going to go and fake like he's going to set a screen. Donovan's supposed to be hedging here, but he's kind of on his heels, but essentially he's going to hang around because the hedger's job, This guy has one responsibility before he recovers to Austin. He has to stop LeBron from driving. So he's going to hang around long enough, and Austin's literally just going to slip behind the action. And because Mobley and Mitchell are both up there, Austin gets an easy layup.

We're going to see another one of those here in a minute as well. Same exact type of thing. We got LeBron here. DeLo is going to set the screen. Karis Lavert is going to hedge. Delo is going to set a little back screen for AD first. The back screen is not open. So here's where we're going to get that screen.

So now Dilo's going to set a screen for LeBron. Watch Carus Levert Hedge. You could see him hop out highside. All he has to do is stop LeBron from driving this way. Now Dilo's slipping. He's behind both guys. As soon as he catches on the slip, Max Struis comes over and tags Dilo. Dilo throws a one-timer tap pass to Rue Hachamur in the corner.

He actually misses this three. That's a really high-quality shot that the Lakers generate. Once again, guard screening for LeBron, waiting for the hedge, slipping the action to get onto the backside. Now we're going to get another. This is a really cool sequence. You guys remember this massive dunk? Let's just watch it all the way through first. This was the biggest highlight of the game, right?

We get the Austin Reeves lob to LeBron James. Nasty dunk, very, very cool, right? This is what's fascinating to me about this. In the context of everything we've been talking about with the coverage, this was a premeditated planned counter from LeBron James and Austin Reeves. So you can see LeBron, throw the ball to Austin, to him. They clearly have had some sort of conversation. Austin and LeBron, at some point, whether it was during a timeout or some sort of stoppage, they clearly discussed exactly what

they were going to do here. So we're going to get the exact same action that we saw earlier. They're setting up to run this ball screen, but as they're getting ready to run it, look at Mitchell. Mitchell's way on the high side, right? Because he's way on the high side, AD doesn't even bother to set the screen because there's no reason for him to set the screen because he's not going to be able to actually use it. So Austin has one job here. Mitchell, because he's playing the high side is gifting Austin that driving lane to the right. AD knows all I have to do is just kind of meander down here into the lane and Evan Mobley is going to tag me because we know every single one of these side pick and rolls that they've run all game, Evan Mobley's been tagging. So now watch. Austin's

already looking at LeBron. He's literally been looking at him this whole time. As soon as he kind of gets going, he's looking back at LeBron right now. And LeBron's got his eye on him. He's already getting ready for this cut. And because Mobley, again, because Mobley is tagging AD so that Jared Allen can catch while Austin is rejecting the ice, LeBron is able to cut with a free runway down the middle. Austin just throws it up high to him. So again, we look at that in the flow of a game and we think, oh, we think, oh, just defensive breakdown or something and oh, maybe it's just LeBron's amazing, maybe it's just an incredible pass. No, that was a chess move. The chess move was Cleveland was running the same exact coverage, defending three on two against the side

pick and rolls for the Lakers. LeBron and Austin had a chat. They had a counter in mind and they got a wide open dunk out of it. All righty. Here's a good example of another kind of like go screen kind of action with Delo and an example of how you can use the hedge and recover to drag the defender further out. So Merrill's guarding Delo. Dilo is going to set the screen on Marcus Morris.

Okay? Remember, Merrill's hedging. Merrill cannot recover to Dilo until he is cut off this driving lane. Morris is compromised. If Merrill leaves, LeBron's going downhill. He's dunking on everybody. So Merrill has a job here in this hedge to not rotate back to Dilo until Marcus Morris can get back in position to get in front of LeBron.

This leaves Dilo wide open. LeBron does this kind of thing a lot where he's driving down on his right side and he just whips it backwards. It's kind of like an around the back pass, but it's almost like straight back instead of around the back because Delo's in that position. LeBron's reading it the whole time. He knows this is Delo's man, and he's just going to whip it right back to Delo who's wide open for three.

So again, the hedge has a responsibility. He's not allowed to recover until he cuts off the driving angle. That's going to be important because when we talk heat pacers, the heat, Tyler Harrow, makes a critical mistake in a hedge at the end of the game. that we're going to get to. So that's why I wanted to kind of include that play. Also an example of the problems that the Lakers present offensively, but an example of that specific coverage. All right. Now, the Cavs can't get a stop, right? We're nine minutes into the second, we are not even three minutes into the second quarter and the Lakers almost have 50 points already.

Caves go zone. Lakers run down. Essentially what they have set up here, because it's an even front. they've got their three guards on the perimeter for the two guards up top. LeBron is setting up a flash cut to the high post, right? In every two three zone, that's the soft spot. The soft spot is the middle of the floor and the two three. LeBron catches here. And as soon as he catches here, it puts these guys in a predicament because they're defending three on two, right?

And look at LeBron. LeBron draws Evan Mobley on the catch and Neang knows we're always going to give up a three before we give up a layup. So Neing is diving down. LeBron kind of like throws a little pass fake. then hits it out to Torium Prince on the wing. Again, it's just going to be hard to zone the Lakers when they have a guy that can catch the ball in the middle of the floor who can make good decisions and everybody around them can

make shots. Again, they're second and three point percentage since January 7th, this 43 game stretch. All right, last play to kind of demonstrate some of the kind of quirky stuff the Lakers do to generate high-quality offense. LeBron's going to throw a crazy cut with the back screen from Gabe Vincent to try to get Evan Mobley on a switch in the post because Morris is just a little stronger, gets the switch. Okay. Now LeBron's posting up and watch Dilo here.

Dilo is going to set an impromptu screen to try to trigger a switch that is baked into Cleveland's defensive scheme. So we talked about hedging on LeBron because they don't want to let these little guys get onto LeBron, right? But if a guard-guard screen occurs, the vast majority of teams are just going to switch a guard-guard-guard screen. So Dilo is going to run up. See how he's pointing? DeLo points to Gabe and runs up to backscreen Merrill, which in theory would trigger a switch. Darius Garland would then run out onto Gabe and Merrill would take Dilo, right? Dilo's trying to trigger that switch.

So he runs up and sets it, okay? Runs up to set. Garland is now going to kind of take a lunge step out towards Gabe as if they're going to switch. but who's got the inside position here. DeLo has the inside position. So he now has effectively forced or baited Cleveland into switching Merrill onto DeLo while he has inside position. He's just going to slip right back inside for a layup.

How easy is that? Like Delo's so good at that kind of shit, that little, that just kind of like quirky, kind of nifty stuff to take advantage of the defensive scheme that's on the table. We talked about earlier, Lakers running a pick and roll, the Caval, are in an ice coverage, he screens the ice big to make it so that he's out of position and Austin can cross him over. Completely random generates a layup. Same sort of thing here. This is all he's doing. He's pointing and baiting. This is all a giant setup to basically back screen slip. And again, Garland, the only reason Garland takes that lunch step out and that's out

this far is he's thinking he's going to be switching on to Gabe Vincent. Easy layup. So again, the combination here, and what makes this all work, is you've got two guys in Anthony Davis and LeBron James that can set screens and easily slip and easily get into the paint and finish in traffic and make reads when the defense collapses on him. Again, a lot of people don't realize this because the Lakers don't drive the basketball a ton, but they have consistently been one of the biggest, best paint offenses in the league. They attempt almost all of their shots,

or the vast majority of their shots compared to the rest of the league inside of five feet from the basket. That's what they do. That's why they get to the foul line so much. Everyone always thinks the Lakers get a ton of foul calls because it's some sort of league-wide conspiracy. No, it's because they take almost all their shots right by the basket. And they've got guys that are good at drawing fouls, guys like Anthony Davis, guys like

Austin Reeves, right? That's a big part of their attack. On the outside, they're knocked down three-point shooting team, second best three-point percentage team since January 7th. Every single guy is capable of attacking closeouts and extending advantages. Rui gets mismatches all the time. They can run guard actions, inverted ball screens to get their guards slipping into open spaces. It is just an overwhelming amount of offensive skill with interior paint forces of Rui Hachemura, LeBron, James, and Anthony Davis to tie it all together.

And that's why they've been dominating teams offensively. And again, to go back to that YouTube comment I was talking about. when things were going really bad for the Lakers, and remember, they were 17 and 19 at one point. When they were 17 and 19, you're right. I was kind of off the manwagon. And the way I've been kind of talking about the tiers, I have Boston and Denver on this tier, right?

And then I have like a ton of teams in that second tier. But then there's like a tier below that that are the teams that are clearly lesser than that, right? That's where I have like the Pelicans and the Kings and teams like that, right? I had the Lakers in that tier until their offense exploded. And with their offense exploding, I now put them back in that middle tier. In order to ever have a chance to get up into that Denver and Boston tier, I think they needed to, I thought they needed to make a significant personnel upgrade at the deadline.

Like, had they got a Bruce Brown, had they got a Dejante Murray, a guy who can really contend on the perimeter and generate dribble penetration on his own, I would have been more kind of inclined to think of the Lakers as an upper tier team. But I still believe that those personnel weaknesses will be an issue. when we get to our contender rankings, you guys are going to hear in more detail the reasons why I'm not as high on L.A.'s chances as some people are. That said, I do think their offense is real. It's an extended stretch of them being really, really hard to guard. I do think they're a better offensive team than they were last year by a sizable margin. I do think that gives them their puncher's chance, their proverbial puncher's chance.

That's going to put them into that middle tier. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions,

my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English.

Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because. of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your All right. Let's move on to Knicks. Bucks. So the Bucks played a really good half in the first half.

And it looked like they were going to get back on track. And then they completely fell apart in the second half. They gave up 72 points while only scoring 48. The main thing I saw on defense, the Knicks were just relentlessly attacking Damien Lillard. And this is a concept that I've talked about a lot on this show, but that we haven't had a chance to look at on film. And so what we're going to do today is go look at some clips to demonstrate how Damien Lillard can be a pretty devastating weak point in the Milwaukee Bucks defense. All right, let's get to the film. All right. This first example here, OG and Anobi is going to attack Dame on a switch. So, O.G's on Janus.

Josh Hart is literally just going to screen real quick on Janus and then cut through to force Dame to guard. Okay. Now, Dames on an island, OG. As soon as he sees that he's got, that opportunity is going to drive hard and then pivot over his shoulder and get an easy little mid-range jump shot. Now, that's going to be a theme that you guys are going to see a lot here in the film, is specifically finding a way to get dame switched onto either OG or onto Jalen Brunson and to

have success attacking him in individual actions. Here is an example of a ghost screen. Let's see here. So again, as we pause here, Beasley is guarding Jalen Brown. excuse me, Jalen Brunson, Dante Divencenzzo is setting another kind of impromptu screen because he's trying to get Dame here, right? Dame is on his heels and way back. He's way too passive defensively.

Jalen Brunson identifies it immediately and just attacks downhill and does his patented low gather move to get to the foul line and the foul. And that's not the last time. You'll see, there's another example coming up. Like a lot of those are where Dame is getting into his switches. He's switching passively way back on his heels and he's just too small for that. and so they're able to get like a real head of steam going through him to the basket. All right.

This next one is OG and Anobi going through Dame again. So the Knicks run some offense. There's a miss and an offensive rebound from, I think DeVincenzo misses or does it get kicked out. Okay, it gets kicked out. So here's where this is not so much an action designed to get a switched. But with the defense in rotation, Dame had to rotate to OG. Now, the way that the crossmatch has worked here, Janus is a, on Hartenssein and Brooke Lopez is on Dante Divencenzzo.

And O'Janinobe quickly identifies this and just drives on Dame inside, easily gets around and gets into the lane, draws Brooke and help and makes the easy kickout pass at Devencenzzo. It's a three in the corner. This one is not Dame, but it's a similar example of matchup hunting and just an example of how devastating Jalen Brunson can be as a playoff weapon picking on matchups. Here, he likes his speed matchup against Jay Crowder. Another kind of transition brush screen from the Knicks. they do this kind of thing a lot.

Josh Hart's a little brush screen on Malik gets the switch. Now it's Crowder. Now they clear the side. And he's just going to hit him with this patented little between the legs or a little crossover dribble makes a little bang shot off the glass. How about Josh Hart get in on the action a little bit? So Brunson's going up against Beasley. Now, Dame is guarding Josh Hart here.

And Josh Hart identifies this. And they just, this is one of the most pitiful efforts to get over the top of the screen I've ever seen. Mitchell Robinson doesn't even actually make contact. He slips out of it early. Watch how Dame just concedes the driving lane. There was no contact. There was no screen. He just lazy kind of meanders over the top. Easily allows Josh Hart to get downhill. That allows Josh Hart to engage Bobby Portis, which forces Jay Crowder to come off of one of the best shooters in the league, Dante Divenchenzo. It forces Crowder to come off to tag Mitchell Robinson to prevent the lob. Josh Hart makes the easy kickout pass to Devenson's

zone in the corner and he knocks down the three. Again, like, it's just, there's just got to be a little more effort there. Like Josh Hart should not be able to that easily get to his spots in a ball screen. Not to mention, that's probably a guy you can duck under the pick on, if anything. This possession, the bucks are in kind of like a matchup zone. So as guys are cutting through, you can see them talking matchups. But once we get into the late clock here, it basically converts to man to man. Yonis actually follows OG all the way up the floor. And now it's just one-on-one basketball Brunson against Damien Lillard. His eyes light up and he just immediately goes to work. Now, as he's backing down Dame, Jay Crowder is basically zoning up. He's come all the way over

on the strong side, which is forced. He is basically forced Portis to come down and get inside position on Mitchell Robinson in case he shoots so he can get a rebound. This leaves Josh Hart completely unguarded on the weak side corner. Easy three. So once again, picking on Dame to bring multiple defenders into the equation. All right. Same sort of thing. Here comes Deuce McBride. Let's get Dame switched on to Jalen. Got the switch. And now it's just I'm downhill, easy getting to my spot for the floater.

This one was interesting. So at first I was like, okay, maybe this is the scheme. So Pat Connotton's guarding Jalen Brunson on an island. Damian Lillard is guarding Dante DiVincenzo on the right wing. Okay? And Dame just goes, screw it. I'm going to double. Okay.

And that, he's now doubling off of one of the very best shooters in the league, as I keep saying, and a guy that's already made multiple shots recently. So he's in rhythm, just being unguarded. And what gave it away for me is here's Doc Rivers, watch Doc Rivers's reaction. He's like, what are you doing? So is Dave randomly just impromptu double teaming Jaylon Brunson off of one of the best shooters on the team? That doesn't make a ton of sense.

That's freelancing. That's the opposite of game plan discipline. This is actually a funny one because Jalen misses this shot. but look at how Dame is just running in circles off of this fake from Jalen Brunson. Like he's just so comfortable working against him one-on-one. Here we go, same sort of thing. Dante DiVincenzo's screen. Let's get Dame on a switch.

And let's take Dame off the dribble for another bucket. Now here's another example of Dame doing a soft switch and allowing Jalen Brunson to get ahead of steam. There we go. So they're running up to set it. but Jalen actually turns the corner early and Dame is just on his heels and has absolutely no chance with him coming at him like that. So again, I mean, that's like almost a dozen,

what's that, like 10 to 12 baskets just in the second half of this game where they were just relentlessly picking on, picking on Dame whenever they got an opportunity. And like, it's just one of those things where like I talk about entry points, the idea of entry points, the idea there is like this is how I get the defense in rotation, right? So like a loaded up defense,

when we think about a loaded up defense, right? And we're going to see some example. Look, this is a good example right here. So this is a loaded up defense, right? So we have, Janus is ready. He's the low man. He's prepared if anybody gets behind Brooke Lopez to kind of clean up the mess there. It is just a more difficult opportunity to score. Right. But once you're in rotation is just driving kick basketball. We saw that earlier. Dame ended up on OG and O'Neumby. Brooke Lopez ended up on, on Dante Devenzo. It's like everyone's in cross-matches. Everyone's just closing out on the next guy. Once you're in rotation, it's just a free-for-all. And your set defense doesn't really matter at all at that point. And so when you have an entry

point, a guy like Dane that you can consistently use to get the defense in a rotation, then it mitigates the strengths of your set defense because they're not having to go against you know, you're loaded up kind of scheme. Instead, it's just close out. Attack a close out. Attack a close out. Find an open shot here. Find an open shot there. Or you're on an island and he's just getting easy baskets over the top of Dame. And so that's kind of an, it's another problem that we run into with like the Minnesota Timberwolves. There have been an excellent defense all year, but they really struggle to get stops and crunch time. And a big part of that is like there's usually a guy in that lineup that you

can pick on. And if you can pick on him, you can get the defense and rotation. If you get the defense in rotation, it's not. not go bare waiting on waiting on you at the rim every single time. Right. So like that's kind of the concept of that as an entry point. On offense in this particular game is just a lot of bad basketball from Damien Janus. They combined to go five or 15 from the field. I want to credit Dante DiVincenzo and O.G. and Inobi just did a really nice job on Janus, like sliding his feet, absorbing contact and digging down at the basketball and kind of knocking it loose. Dante Devenzo did a really good job in ball pressure on Damian Lillard and chasing him over the

top of screens. And then the Knicks did a really good job getting up to the level of the screen and stopping those pull-up opportunities for Dame. Here are a couple of clips just to show you the Knicks defense. We're just going to rip through these pretty quick. This is a transition runout from Janus. Watch OG and Ninobe absorb the blow from Janus and force the turnover. He's going to try to attack, slides his feet, absorbs the contact, gets his hands in there, swipes it away. Exact same kind of thing here. Transition runout. Janice looks to attack OG, absorb the contact, knock the ball loose. Here, Janice is going to try to bully OG and an OB,

and he absorbs the contact enough for Mitchell Robinson to come over and help. Watch as he takes that contact, that slows down Janice enough for Mitchell Robinson to get in there and get the block. I thought OG did a really nice job in this game. Here's Dante DiVincenzo staying attached. Look at the difference in effort getting over the top of the screen from Dante compared to that clip I showed you from Dame earlier. gets over the top and he doesn't foul, but he disrupts and forced Dame to shoot like a leaning forward jump shot, which is a much, much tougher jump shot.

This time, Yonis gets a really good screen, but OG and Anobie ends up holding his ground and doing a really nice job sliding and staying in front of Dame and forcing the miss. Now let's talk about the Biggs. This time, Isaiah Hartnstein is going to hold up on a switch against Dame and ISO, force him into a really tough step back. Here's the exact same thing in the first half of that game.

Hardinstein on a switch against Dame, slides his feet, forces him into a tough step back. It's a really good contest, forces a miss. And then this is just incredible effort for Mitchell Robinson. We have a transition possession here. So off the Bruns and miss, bucks are running. Watch Mitchell Robinson. This is unbelievable.

Watch Mr. Robinson as soon as the ball is caught. He's sprinting back, okay? Sprint, sprint, sprint, sprint. Now Portis is going to quick set of a set of, screen. Here's communication. Josh Hart, hey, he's getting ready to set the screen. He's telling him. Mitchell Robinson knows that Dame is an excellent shooter and he has to be in a high drop coverage. He has to be up at the level of the screen. He gets all the way around to that strong side. And then Dave takes the shot and Mitchell Robinson blocks it. We got to watch that in real time.

This is just unbelievable effort for Mitchell Robinson and communication from the Knicks. Shot goes up. Sprint, sprint, sprint, sprint, sprint. Josh Hart, communicate. Get back over there. to pick up at the level, block the pull-up shot. Just unbelievable defense for Mitchell Robinson. It was really, really impressed with the Knicks all night. All right, last thing we're going to get into in this game before we move on is the Dame Yonis pick and roll. So the Knicks offense obviously really struggled down the stretch of this game too.

They had just 48 points in the second half. And there's a concept I've been talking about a lot on this show this season, having to do with the difference between cleared side actions and occupied corner actions. And how I always talk about how I like occupied corner actions. with the top-tier playmakers in the league. But for the lower-level playmakers, I prefer cleared side actions because they can actually see the whole floor in front of them

and they can make reads easier. Well, I wanted to show some plays to demonstrate that. So first of all, this is what the bucks typically do. And to give you an example, I didn't count a single cleared side ball screen in this particular game. I had a really hard time just finding an example of them doing it the way that I want. I had to go way back into older games to find some examples that fit this.

But here's what they were doing for the most part last night. And again, Bobby Portis is on this side of the floor, so it's occupied. Also, they're running the ball screen towards the sideline. Janus is rolling into just a lot of traffic. So, like, even when he catches here, like he catches here, but everything is on both sides of him. He's got to read a lot of space. Brooke is behind him, for instance. And notice how he quickly hesitates and picks up his dribble. It's because he's not comfortable catching with the head of steam, right there. Makes the kickout pass to Brooke and they're able to quickly rotate out of it and the advantage is gone. And so that's an example as he's rolling into the middle of the floor. He's

rolling into traffic. He's less confident and it's less of an advantage for the bucks. That play actually ends in a turnover as well. Here we go. Here's another one. Janus sets the screen. Yonis doesn't even roll on this one. He just kind of, that's the same play actually. Go to the next one. By that guys. So working out the kinks here. All right. So on this one, we get a good screen, but Janus just doesn't roll. And so Janus is like, he's not a spot up threat there. If he rolls hard, he can be in this area. And even if Dame misses this layup like he does, Janus is probably going to clean that up, but he just doesn't roll.

That needs to happen. But same sort of thing. He'd be rolling into traffic if he did. Here's an example from the Pelicans game of them giving up a, on the roll to the rim. Jonas Valenchnus is able to make an easy rotation. So they're going to go a little dribble, handoff with Dame here. Dame is then going to get the ball screen from Janus. After they botched that, slips out of it. But again, he's rolling into traffic. He doesn't know what's happening behind him. He can't see any of this. And so Yonis is easily able to step up and disrupt this play at the rim because once again, he's rolling into too much traffic. So here's what it looks like when you run the same exact action, the way that I'm asking on a cleared side. This one is actually in a little bit of

transition. So dames running up the floor. But because of the way this is laid out, all three bucks are on the weak side. So this is the exact configuration that I want. I want Dame working towards the middle. And I want Janus rolling into all of this empty space. Because if he rolls into that empty space and he catches here, he can have a head of steam, but see the entire floor in front of him and not have to worry about what's going on behind him. In this case, he rolls into the open space. He didn't have to worry about someone tagging. He can see all that. If Nicholas Batum came up, he'd literally be able to see this happen. Everything's in front of him.

He's rolling into open space. Same sort of thing here. Because Conantin cuts through, we have a cleared side on this side of the floor. Yannis sets the screen. Now he's rolling into open space. Watch when he catches here. So Yannis catches. Philly still loaded up.

But they're loaded up in a way that is completely in front of Yannis. He can see everything. And so he's able to quick make a decision here. Like, I can turn the corner on Tobias easily just by dropping my right shoulder. So he gets downhill, just drops his right shoulder and finish. It's just an easier decision for him to make when he catches in open space as opposed to in traffic. One more example. Same sort of thing here.

Crowder, Lopez, and Malik Beasley, all on the weak side. Yonis is going to set the pick and roll into open space. As he's rolling into open space, once again, he can identify everything happening on the floor. In this case, James Hardin is the guy that's got to tag him. It's just an easy lob and finish for Janus at the rim. So again, the key that I'm getting at here is getting Janus the ball, but with a head of steam, and with all the defense in front of him so that he can easily make reeds. And if you do it on the cleared side where he rolls into the short corner, it's just a lot easier for him than when you have him rolling into the middle of the floor with all that traffic. And I'm

glad that we were able to finally give you guys kind of a visual representation. of what I was talking about. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators and voices that not only deserve to be heard but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.

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All right, moving on to heat Pacers. This one, we're just going to spend a couple of minutes on because I wanted to just kind of show the big sequence of the game that kind of determine the outcome. So as I've talked about so much on the show, execution is the biggest thing that determines the outcome of late game situations, right? And this game was interesting because the Pacers jumped the heat early. And he battled back and they actually got it to two with three minutes left. It was a 103 to 101 game, and back to back to back mistakes by the Miami Heat cost them. And so I wanted to show you guys that just to demonstrate how execution can blow things for a team. All righty, let's get back to the film.

So 103 101, and we are going to get an example of a bad hedge like I talked about from the Lakers game. Tyler Harrow cuts off this T.J. McConnell Drive. It gets kicked out. Okay. Now, McConnell is going to set a screen on Jimmy Butler, and Tyler Harrow's job is to hedge and then recover, okay, to T.J. McConnell, which is actually probably one of the easier hedging recovers that he would have based on the fact that T.J's not like some sort of lights out movement shooter, right? Now, what did we talk about from the Cavs game, right? Tyler Harrow's job when he hedges is to cut off the drive. That's all that matters. It's the one thing he has to do. As long as he cuts off the drive, even if he doesn't give up a three, as long as he cuts off the drive, he has done his job. T.J. sets a screen, slips out. Tyler Harrow's hedge like takes a terrible angle.

Like you can tell, he's getting ready to hedge, but he just takes a terrible angle, and Tyrus Halliburton goes right around him for an easy layup. And again, one job there, come further out. He's got to meet him. He's got to meet him out here and just force him to take a retreat, dribble. Because if Tyrese Halliburton takes a retreat dribble, Jimmy Butler rotates, Tyler Harrow gets back, and then we're fine. But because he takes a bad angle on this hedge,

it's a layup. Now it's a four-point game. Go down to the other end. The Miami Heater going run in action to try to get Tyrese Halliburton switched on to Jimmy Butler. So they go to Yovic. And basically, Jimmy just wants to set this screen to get Tyrese Halliburton switched on to him and then go to work. Instead, Yovic goes, it's my turn, and drives in and takes this bad floater and hits the side of the backboard. So a bad offensive decision. And then off of that, we have bad floor balance and transition. Tyler Harrow walking. Watch Tyler Harrow walking. Still walking. Justapose that with the possession we got from Mitchell Robinson sprinting back on defense in the last segment. He's walking. Now he's jogging. We've got three guys here, right? What are the

order. What's the order of operations for a transition, right? Stop the ball, protect the basket. So one of these guys needs to be communicating. I've got ball, and then the other two both need to be getting back to the rim. Instead, there's no communication, and Aaron Neesmith just easily leaks out from behind and gets to the foul line, makes both free throws. And literally just like that, we go from a 103, 101 game with three minutes left to a 107 101 game with two minutes left, and it's basically over from there. The heat would have to play perfect to win from there, and it's hard to play perfect. So a great example of how, like, you can play a great basketball game, do everything right,

and get into a position where you can win, and then if you don't execute, so three mistakes, three mistakes, right? Tyler Harrow, Bad Hedge, Nicola Yovich with eight seconds on the shot clock, shoots a floater off the side of the backboard when Jimmy Butler has Tyrese Halliburton on him, closing out at him, of all things, too. And then finally, bad transition defense, not picking up the ball and protecting the rim, poor communication, jogging from Tyler Harrow, suddenly your chance to win the game is over. And that's how quickly it can happen. when it comes to execution.

All right, Rockets math. Super, super fun game. The Rockets jump them early. Dallas battles back, sends it to OT off of Adante XM three. We're going to go through some of that on film as well. Dallas gets a big win. Kyrie Irving had 48 points in this game. We're starting on film by looking at Kyrie Irving's footwork.

Now, one of the things I talk about a lot on this show is footwork is the means with which you get to your spots. So there's a spot on the floor you're trying to get to. if you do not have quality footwork, you're not going to be able to get there. This one starts with Kyrie Irving, ISO-ing Dylan Brooks, one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. He's going to use a dribble combination to get down here to the middle of the floor. And when he gets here, watch this. Right here, he's going to spin.

But spinning is tough footwork. And a spin move by itself is not enough. He needs to spin and then take two long steps to get to the rim. Well, watch it in real speed first. Watch how strong these steps are. Spin one, two, up to the basket to finish through contact. Literally, he had the strength off of the spin move to go take two additional lunging steps through a bigger, stronger defender, and to finish at the rim.

Just watch the power in his lower body as he makes this spin move. And this is perfect footwork. Boom, spin, but he maintains that line of power going towards the basket and finish. It's just incredible footwork from Kyrieving. And again, that's a spot he's trying to get to that his spin-moved footwork is what allowed him to get there. Same type of thing here working in ISO against Jalen Green. Drives left, right? Gets cut off.

Then he's going to step through with his left foot to set Jalen Green up for a fadeaway. Step through, pump fake, spin over his right shoulder. Look at this footwork. Watch this again. I'm going to put it in slow motion this time. watch Kyrie's footwork as he gets down here. Boom. Step through with the left foot, fake, pivot over the right shoulder. Just absolutely beautiful.

Again, it's all about him being able to get to any spot on the floor with any footwork because he has polished that specific part of his game so well. Really impressive stuff from Kyrie Irving. So the next thing we're going to be looking at is what I thought was the hero of the game for Dallas late in this game. Big plays from their forwards defensively. Here we have a ball screen. On the ball screen, we get a slip, and PJ Washington is the low man here, right?

So because the roller got behind the line of defense, he has to come off of Cam Whitmore in the corner, and he's got to help at the rim. He's going to get the block on Jock Landale. Then he's going to run up the floor, and we have a really – he's got a smaller defender in front of him. So he's going to do a really nice job of tucking to gather the ball, taking the contact and finishing at the rim. See how he protects the ball? Look at how far he brought the ball over on his left side.

right here. Like he's bringing it way on his left side to protect, swinging that right shoulder through to clear out, getting the easy layout. Now we're going to get Maxi Kleba getting involved. Yeah, I thought he was the, like, unbelievable defensively at the end of this game. This is going to be an example of a peel-off switch to get a steal.

So this ball is going to end up in Kyrie Irving's hands. And when Jabari Smith sets the screen, Kyrie calls for the switch. And then Fred Van Vleek kind of beats him to the side, but Kyrie Irving calls another switch. And he switches, but watch Kleba right here. He sees Kyrie's got him. He identifies that Luke is there, Kyrie's there.

He knows now that he doesn't need to chase anymore. And so at the last second, he bails out on it and pulls back. Fred Van Vleet tries to toss it back to Jabari Smith, and Cleba gets the steal. Here's a couple of stops. Same exact thing twice. Kleba getting switched onto Jalen Green and forcing him into tough pull-up threes and getting misses. Miss number one. Same sort of thing here.

Ball screen, Clebeon and Ireland. Look at this contest. That's just a lot of length to force a couple of big misses there. All right, let's get into crunch time. So it's 126, 125, and this is actually an example of a botched rotation from the Mavs. So Luca's going to linger in a hedge here. So Bullock is setting the screen and he's going to slip out of it to the three-point line. Luca lingers in a hedge.

Now, Jason Kidd has clearly set up a funky system of rotations here. Typically, this would be a hedge and recover. right. Luca would hang out just along enough for Exum to recover, and then Luca would recover. But instead, Luca points, because it appears, you can see him immediately point. They do the windshield wiper rotation from the opposite end of the floor. So they're expecting Luca to basically recover to Dylan Brooks, but PJ Washington is slow. And so as you can see, Bullock slips. Washington should know this rotation is coming. You can see him kind of starting, but he's just too late.

And when he makes that rotation, it's just too easy a look for too good of a shooter. So that gets it to 128, 126. As we know, Javari Smith goes up and misses a couple of free throws. And now we're going to get our final sequence. This is just an example of Luca Donchich's gravity. So Bullock is guarding Exum and Dylan Brooks is guarding Luca. He's going to throw that pitch. Reggie Bullock is you can literally see it in his body language.

This is, oh, shit, body language. He's like, oh, shit, here comes Luca, right? So he's like, oh, no, no, no. And Dylan Brooks is chasing so hard from behind and he gets there. but Dante Exum is wide open as a result. And Dante Exum has been dead on, like dead on with his catch and shoot shooting this year. Ties the game and sends it to OT. Here we get another big play from Kleba at the rim on defense.

Fred Van Bleet's going to get downhill and Clebe is going to block him on the opposite side of the rim. This is actually an example. So down the stretch of this game, the Rockets just started hard doubling the Mavs every single time. So here we're going to get a double team. a PJ Washington is going to slip to the middle of the floor. It's going to get swung through. Really good rotations from Houston. The ball ends up with Exum.

And Exum is dribbling out to try to get the ball back to Luca. So he's looking at Luca, but Dylan Brooks is in full ball denial, literally 40 feet from the basket. And there's only 10 seconds left, and Kyrie's all the way down over here. So Exum basically has to try to make a play off the bounce. And he's like, sure, I can make plays with the ball in my hands.

It used to be what I do. Hard crossover dribble on Fred Van Ville. to the basket for a layout. That's really valuable matchup attacking skill there from Dante Exum. All right, moving on. How about Maxi Klibe at the rim again? So Josh Green beats P.J. Washington, straight verticality from Kleeba gets a stop at the rim. Just unbelievable defensively. And then going the other way, we're going to get another impromptu double team this time of Kyrie. Okay. Ball gets swung. There's an impromptu double team of Lukah that gets swung to Kleba, Kleba is not in a position to score, so he just tosses it to Kyrie.

We're going to get another impromptu double team from Jeff Green. This time, Kleba kind of slips into that opening, draws Jalen Green, and then PJ Washington gets a wide open corner three. So again, just the advantage of having stars that continually draw double teams means you're constantly in rotation, which means as long as you make good reads, you're going to get great looks. Good read there from Kleba, wide open three for PJ Washington. and how about one more defensive effort for good measure?

We're going to get this time Derek Jones, Jr., getting switched on to Jalen Green and making an athletic play to stop him at the rim. Big time win for the Mavs. It's crazy how they've turned their season around here down the stretch just with incredible defense rebounding and obviously the power of their stars. All right, that's it for our film session. We're going to be headed into our top 10 contenders now. Actually, before we, to quick tie off on the, the doubt,

Dallas bit. You know, that to me, that Kleba, PJ, PJ, Washington, Derek Jones, Jr. That to me is the main difference between Phoenix and Dallas. They're very similar in the sense that they have these incredible shot creators that are going to consistently draw multiple defenders. Phoenix is going to look better in a lot of those situations just simply because they have so much shooting around. And they don't have, you know, guys like PJ Washington, Maxie Clebe, Derek Jones, Jr., where it's like, I could live with this guy shooting if I want to. Most of the rotation. players for Phoenix are dead-eye shooters. That said, they simply do not have the type of versatile defensive forwards that Dallas can bring to the table, guys like PJ Washington,

guys like Maxi Kleba. So I actually think Phoenix has a little bit higher of a offensive ceiling than Dallas does, but I think Dallas has a little bit higher of a defensive ceiling. And I think that that could end up voting even more well for them when they get to the postseason. I'm actually still up in the air for like Phoenix and Dallas are like my biggest. toss up right now in my contender rankings, which we're going to get to later this week. All right, before we get out of here today, like I said, we're going to be going to be going through our top 10 contenders. This is going to be ranked purely based on what I'm expecting from these teams in the postseason.

A couple of quick notes on the standings. After Boston and Denver, Oklahoma City and Minnesota are the next two teams in the standings, right? They're both young athletic teams that dominated the regular season. They have 24 and 25 losses. Then we have the clippers. They have 28 losses. they were really good for a big chunk of the season,

and they've been pretty mediocre for a big chunk of the season. They're kind of in that middle zone. But the next 13 teams, Dallas, Milwaukee, Orlando, New York, Phoenix, New Orleans, Cleveland, Sacramento, Indiana, the Lakers, Philadelphia, Miami, and Golden State. All 13 teams in that list have between 30 and 35 losses. They're all separated by five games in the loss column. So, like, they're all crunched up on each other. So standings, there's a bunch of teams in both conferences that I have ranked more differently than where they're at in the standings.

And it's because we're really splitting hairs at this point, aside from those teams at the top of the league, everyone's kind of crunched up on each other. And so I'm more looking at matchups, personnel, and how I expect those things to translate to the postseason. So we're going to be going from 10 to 1 to start, and I'm just going to do 10, 9, and 8 today. So number 10 is actually going to be a two-for-one. It's the Heat and the Warriors. These are teams that were just giving the appropriate amount of respect to the establishment. Both of them have had mediocre regular seasons. Both are 43 and 35.

Both are likely to be in the playing tournament. The Warriors basically certainly at this point and the heat likely at this point after they're lost to the Pacers, although it's not over for them. Both have similar strengths. They're both really good defenses. They're both really good at defensive rebounding. they have a superstar that thrives in the postseason, right? You can't do much better than Jimmy and Steph as postseason stars, right?

And then both are extremely well coached. It's pretty much the consensus around the league that Steve Kerr and Eric Spolster are the two best tactical adjustment coaches that we have in the league, right? They also have similar weaknesses. They're both prone to lulls on offense for the same reasons because their superstars are getting a bit old. Both superstars, their numbers are down from last year. Both of them seem to be a little bit on the other end of the hill.

and neither team has a reliable secondary shot creator. So as a result of that, some nights when guys are playing well, they look great on offense and they can beat anybody, but they have the tendency, especially if their superstars not playing super well, to go really cold offensively and to have a lot of challenges. But their playoff strengths are a reality. Elite superstar talent, elite coaching, and elite defense and rebounding, those are like three or four of the most important things that you can have as a playoff. threat. And so because of that, I think it'd be silly for us to write these teams out. And so that's

why I have them in this list as kind of like a two-fer in that 10 spot. It's the appropriate amount of respect to the establishment. Their defense and rebounding are going to keep games close. So it's really going to come down to execution. Now, both of these teams, ironically, for being historically good execution teams, both of these teams have struggled with execution this season. The Warriors have lost a bunch of close games this season. The heat haven't been a very good clutch team either. We just showed examples from the Pacers game of them making critical execution mistakes down the stretch. So relative to what we expect from these teams as establishment franchises, they haven't been good execution teams this year, but that is kind of their reputation.

I kind of view these teams as like the bouncer at the club. And what I mean by that is like, I don't think either of them are talented enough to win four rounds. Certainly it would be a big long shot, but I do think they will expose the fraudulent teams around the league. So I'm going to be really tempted to pick the heat in the Warriors in just about any series except for the very top echelon in the league simply because of the fact that they are the team that will expose you if you're not ready. If you have major holes that prevent you from being a postseason team, or excuse me, a championship level team, if you have those kinds of holes, it's elite superstar, elite

coaching elite defense that will expose that. That's what Miami and Golden State do. And so I expect, you know, no matter what, those two teams to be a royal pain in the butt, but I'm going to be tempted to pick them just simply because of their ability to expose other teams' flaws. What is their path? So for every one of these teams, I'm going to go strengths, weaknesses, what is their path to the championship look like? So for Miami or Golden State to get it done, obviously the superstars have to outplay their matchup consistently. So Steph and Jimmy are going to have to go toe to the best superstars in the league and outplay them. That's a must because talent advantage is not going to be in their favor, right?

Two, the coaches have to throw the other teams out of rhythm. So Kerr and Spolstra have to coach their ass off, identify and expose weaknesses on the other team. And then lastly, they need consistent contribution from their inconsistent offensive co-stars or co-talent on the team. As long as those guys contribute, as long as the coaches make the other teams uncomfortable, and as long as Steph and Jimmy play well, they have a chance to beat anybody. Number nine, the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are 54 and 24 so far, tied for the one seed in the Western Conference. Their strengths, they are physically overwhelming at every position group.

Anthony Edwards is one of the biggest, strongest, most athletic guards that we have in the league. Nikiel Alexander Walker is another quick and long perimeter defender on the wing. Jaden McDaniels is possibly the best wing defender in basketball. And then Rudy Gobert, obviously the length and versatility at the center position. Carl Towns and his ability to bully smaller wings, especially now that he plays alongside another big. And even Nas Reid in the matchup problems that he presents as just a gigantic human being that can shoot.

They have physical advantages all over the floor. They've also been the best defense in basketball this year. They are number one in defensive rating. Number one in half court defensive rating according to cleaning the glass by a mile, almost five points better than the second best team in the league in half court defense. They're also an excellent rebounding team. They're seventh in defensive rebounding percentage. Their weaknesses, though, they're a mediocre offense that becomes flat out bad at the end of games.

For the season, they're 17th in offensive rating. But that goes down. They score just 104.3 points per 100 possessions offensively when the game is within five points with less than five minutes left. They fall apart at the end of games with their decision making and their spacing. And specifically, it comes down to Anthony Edwards as a 22-year-old decision maker, right? Like, that's really what it comes down to. Like, he's 22 years old, and he has a tendency to settle for bad shots. 15 players in the NBA this year have attempted at least 500 pull-up jump shots this year.

Anthony Edwards gets 0.89 points per shot, which is actually down from last year, and that ranks 14th on that list out of 15 players. Like, only Demarda Rosen has been worse on that list, and it's because he barely ever takes a pull-up three, which is the higher value shot. So he's not a good pull-up jump shooter who settles for that shot a lot. He's literally in the top 15 of pull-up jump shooting volume in the league this year, despite the physical gifts that he has to the table that he brings to the table. And so really that's what it comes down to.

It's like he's 22. And one of the most common things I talk about on the show is like the growth of a young basketball player is identifying what works and finding out how to replicate it, identifying what's not working and finding out how to minimize it. Ant just hasn't really got to that point yet. And so I'm as big an ant believer as you'll find. I think he has a real chance to be the best player in the league, which is saying something given some of the talent that we have outside of the United States

that has come into the league, right? So I'm a big believer in Anthony Edwards, but it's just really early in his window. Decision making is the weakness of the team, and that has manifested in that offensive rating. They haven't defended well at the end of games either. They have a 118.3 defensive rating and clutch situations. that is the sixth worst mark in the entire NBA.

For a team that has been the best defense in the league outside of those situations, that to me comes down to entry points like I talked about. If you can get Mike Conley in the action, get the defense and rotation. If you can get Carl Towns in the action, get the defense in rotation, suddenly it doesn't matter how strong your set defenses. Teams have not had a problem scoring on Minnesota in crunch time this season. I think that will be the death of them. They'll be in every single game because of their defense,

but I think they'll just inevitably run into a team that can, out-execute them in the half-court, and I think they'll get knocked out. What does their path look like? Everything comes down to Anthony Edwards. If he plays like a 30-year-old vet under control, good decision-making, prioritizing using his physical gifts to dominate the game on both ends of the floor, devoting resources defensively where he can be absolutely devastating, and then on offense, using his strength and athleticism to get as close to the room as possible.

And then when he does settle shooting a high percentage, a higher percentage than he has in the regular season, which, by the way, he's consistently been a pretty mediocre regular season pull-up shooter, but he's pretty consistently been a great pull-up shooter in the postseason, albeit in a small sample size, only one round each time. So as long as he can do that over the course of a longer playoff run, make the shots and make quality decisions, they can beat anyone. It's just you're betting on a 22-year-old, and that's a lot to ask. That's why I have them so low relative to where they are in the standings. Number eight, final one for today, the Milwaukee bucks. This is the largest gap between how I felt.

about a team at the start of the season versus now. I had them as the second best championship contender to start the season. I had them a hair over Boston. Now I have them all the way down at eight. They're 47 and 31, second in the Eastern Conference, just 15 and 17 since Doc Rivers got hired below 500 in a 32 game sample size. 20th best record in the league in that span. Mediocre on both ends of the floor.

They're 16th on offense and 13th in defense over that 32 game span. Their strengths, they've been a good offense. for most of the season. They're actually fifth and offensive rating for the whole season, especially against good teams. And this is like your little silver lining or whatever you want to call it that you cling to as a Bucks fan. They have a 122.2 offensive rating against teams against teams against the top 10 in point differential, according to cleaning the glass. That is the best rating in the league. So their offense has been really good against good teams. Honestly, that's all the optimism for both Lakers fans and Bucks fans has to center around how they fared against good

teams because those two teams have been better against the best than they've been against the middle of the pack. They are top five in both three-pointers made per game and free throws made per game. So they get really efficient shots to kind of bolster their offensive rating. They're an excellent defensive rebounding team. They're sixth and defensive rebounding percentage. They also have real star power for the postseason. Damienianian, even with as much as Dame has struggled this year, I still think Damienian is a better duo than anything they'll encounter in the Eastern Conference. It won't be until they run into Yokic and Murray if they get to the finals that they'll run into a better duo. So like, that's a huge advantage going into the post-

season. I don't think with Jalen Brown's rise and with dames fall, I don't think it's like a big gap. I think they're barely a better duo than the Tatum Brown duo, but I do think they're a better duo. Their weaknesses, biggest one, they're just slow. Outside of Janus, every single player in their rotation, because the young guys don't play much, every single player in their rotation is slower than average for their position group around the league. And so teams get out in transition a lot against them. They get out in transition 16% of the time. That ranks 22nd. in the NBA. It's a big part of their defensive issues. They were a top 10 paint defense last year.

That used to be a strength of the bucks. They could protect the paint. Not this year. They're 17th in opponent points in the paint per 100 possessions. This is another weird part. They don't score in the paint. Now, a lot of people will say they take a lot of kickout threes because of the way teams guard Janus.

That's true. But in the year they won the title, they were 15th and points in the paint per 100 possessions. This year, they're 29th, the second worst paint scoring offense. in the NBA. They're very dependent on jump shooting. They're a top 10 jump shooting frequency team. And so they've kind of leaned a little bit too much into the variance themselves. They're slow. They don't get a ton of easy shots right around the basket. They rely on tough shot making a lot. That's just a tough spot to be in offensively. And I think that's a big part of why they've

struggled so much offensively as of late. But really, they just have never been able to get the Damianas two-man game off the ground where it needs to go. And we talked about that specifically in our film session today for the bucks. I gave like six examples of different ball screen configurations that I've been looking at with Milwaukee stuff that works and stuff that doesn't. So you can find that a little bit earlier on our feed if you're watching this on a breakout. But they've just never been able to get the Dame Yannis two-man game to be as inevitable as it needs to be. And then Dame as the entry point defensively, the Knicks won the other night,

literally just because they were targeting Dame almost every single time down the floor and getting great shots as a result. And then lastly, they just have bad vibes. They're under 500 for almost half of a season's worth of games at this point. The Doc Rivers situation, the comments, the energy around the team. It's just not where you want it to be if you're in position to make a championship run. This team doesn't appear to have that energy behind it that you hope for from a contender. What is their path?

Really simple. Damon and Janus have to figure it out offensively when they get to the postseason, which, by the way, is doable. They need excellent shooting runs from Malik Beasley, Brooke Lopez, and Chris Middleton. And lastly, Janice and Tenekumpo just has to have the defensive playoff run of his lifetime. He's got to just be so incredibly locked in and focused and be able to clean up so many messes because the messes are going to be there. But if all that comes together, they have the talent. They have the ability to do it. There's just got a lot of things that are trending in the wrong direction.

All right, guys, that is all I have for today. There's no NBA games tonight because of the national title games. So if we go tomorrow, it'll probably just be a couple more of the contenders that we'll look at. We are going live on YouTube after the final buzzer of Lakers Warriors tomorrow. night though so i will see you guys then if i don't see you in the morning i always appreciate you guys see you tomorrow the volume another podcast from some s nl late night comedy guy not quite unhumor me with robert smigle and friends me and hilarious guests from bob odencirk to david letterman help make you funnier this week my guest s nl's mikey day and head writer streeter

sidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter where does your group perform we do some retirement homes those people are starving for banning Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

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