The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Mavericks-Thunder Predictions: Will Luka Doncic & Dallas end OKC's dream season?, Celtics-Cavs predictions: Why Tatum & Boston will CRUISE past Cavs

Episode Date: May 7, 2024

Jason Timpf shares his predictions for Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks' matchup with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round of th...e NBA Playoffs. Jason discusses the biggest factors in the series, breaks down film from prior matchups, and shares his pick for who will advance to the Western Conference Finals. Then, Jason shares his preview for Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the Boston Celtics' second round matchup with Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Playoffs. Jason discusses Boston's major talent advantage, what needs to happen for Cleveland to pull off the upset, and who he has advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.   Timeline (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 05:00 - Mavs-Thunder Prediction 24:30 - Celtics-Cavs Prediction #Volume #Herd  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?
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Starting point is 00:00:41 You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:01:10 On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 is big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.
Starting point is 00:01:27 84 was a wild. I mean, it was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.
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Starting point is 00:04:07 be starting today off with a couple of series previews. In this video, I'm just hitting Mavs Thunder. Later today, we'll have a shorter series preview on Celtics Cavs coming out. And then later tonight, we're going after the final buzzer of game two of Nuggets Timberwolves, break that game down as well as the Nix Pacers series having their game one tonight. So two series previews, previews live show tonight. Also, quick note, I released a like a game breakdown with 45 clips of film on the Nuggets Wolves game one. But we were, we were. ran into an issue with YouTube where it got pulled. So like we just ran the verbal part at the start of the show. That may or may not end up happening to this video as well. I have 10 clips that
Starting point is 00:04:47 we're going to hit at the end. But just know we're still trying to kind of work through that behind the scene. So I'm going to do the best that I can. But that's why I'm going to kind of go over everything verbal at the top of the show. So at least we have that if something goes wrong. But again, I apologize for that issue we have with that video. I promise we're working on it behind the scenes. You guys know the joke before we get started, subscribe to our brand new YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT, so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed, wherever you get your podcast under hoops tonight. And then last but not least, keep dropping mailback questions in those YouTube
Starting point is 00:05:17 comments so we can keep hitting them throughout the rest of the post season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So Mavs Thunder, this is of all the series that I've talked about in the first round of the post season, or I should say the first and second round of the postseason. This one is the hardest one for me to get a feel for. I kind of had a more concrete feeling going in until I got the news that Maxi Klieba is going to be out for at least the next three weeks. Nick Sixers was close for me, and I ended up picking the wrong side of it, but I at least had a more strong feeling about Philly at the start of that particular series. This series, like, I don't feel good about either team given the injury to Maxi Klieba.
Starting point is 00:05:56 But we're going to get into it. The Thunder won the season series three to one. The data is almost useless. Everyone was out the last game. The Mavs blowout was right after the Gafford Washington trade, and Gafford and Washington both came off the bench. Kind of a weird game. The Thunder were on three straight full days off beforehand,
Starting point is 00:06:15 and they just came out flat and got rolled from the opening tip. Really energetic Mavs effort in that game. Luca was out for one of the other Mavs losses. Kyrie was out for one of the other Mavs losses. The one game, all the stars played, the Mavs dominated. But like I said, it was kind of a weird, a weird game from the start. The metrics, the MAVs, 11.5 offensive rating in this matchup, the Thunder 119.7. The MAVs barely won the rebounding battle.
Starting point is 00:06:41 They grabbed 50.4% of available rebound, so they didn't do as much damage to Oklahoma City as some other teams have done. The Thunder won points off of turnovers, 23.4 to 17.8 per game. The Thunder won second chance points, 18.3 to 13.3. By the way, these are actually per 100 possessions, not per game. Mavs won fast break points, 18.8 to 12.5, and Mavs won points in the paint, 46.3 to 45.3. Vegas agrees that this is more or less a coin flip series. The Thunder are currently favored at minus 115, according to draft kings. But both teams have negative odds. If you want to bet the Mavs to win the series, you're getting it at minus 105, which is not a whole lot better.
Starting point is 00:07:24 So more or less a coin flip series in Vegas as well. Let's start with the Mavs on offense. So it's going to be interesting because I think when the MAVs are on offense, it's going to be pretty straightforward matchups for Oklahoma City. When Oklahoma City is on offense, I think Dallas is going to be doing all sorts of different stuff to hang with some of the matchup issues that Oklahoma City can cause. So let's start the MAVs on offense, really straightforward matchups for them. It's going to be Lou Dort on Luca Donchitz, very kind of a different type of defender
Starting point is 00:07:53 than some of the guys he was going against in the last round. Like Russ and Terrance Mann are kind of like low center of gravity athletic guards, but Lou Doort is literally built like a linebacker. And so he's going to be able to kind of handle some of the bully ball stuff that Luca does a little better. But to be clear, in the regular season, Luca lit him up. 34 points per game, 56% from the field, 43% from 3. 27 assists in the two games that he played. The game that I talked about, the blowout game, he was cooking Lou Dort early.
Starting point is 00:08:22 He was ducked under a pick early, which you shouldn't do with Luca. Luca, he'll pull up three. He hit him with a pump fake and Dort damn near ran into. the scores table as Luca hit a three over the top of him. It was just a complete cook job. It was not pretty. But I do think Lou's capable of doing a much better job. His back pressure was kind of weak in that game. And like I said, he left his feet on pump fakes too much. But he does have the physical traits to beat Luca to spots and to hold up under his bully ball. I do think that he'll do a better job. I expect Luca to do a lot of work early in possessions to get him off
Starting point is 00:08:56 of him as much as possible. And then I also think Lou Dorts going to bring a lot of full court ball pressure to try to tire him out. Again, the last time Luca lost a playoff series against Golden State in 2022, that was kind of the way that Golden State attacked him was just pick him up full court, try to tire him out, stay home off the ball, make him into a score, right? Jalen Williams on Kyrie. Kyrie also torched him, 31 points per game, 62% from the field, 43% from three.
Starting point is 00:09:23 main thing that stood out to me on tape is he's just a little too quick for Jalen. Jalen's a really good athlete, but Kyrie is a small guard with a ton of first step quickness. So for Jalen, it's mostly going to be about sticking to the game plan. What I mean by that is like a lot of it's going to be more about back pressure, doing the best you can to contest shots, more stuff within the team concept defensively because I think Oklahoma City is going to have to throw some extra bodies in that direction from time to time. Chet's going to guard whoever the center is, whether it's Daniel Gafford or Derrick. Eric Lively. The, the, uh, Mavs ran a lot of pick and pop with Maxi Klieba in the regular season.
Starting point is 00:09:58 When I talk about Maxi Kleeva being out of this series, I'm primarily going to be focusing on Dallas on the defensive end of the floor because that's where I think his greatest value is, but it's also a loss on the offense event because Gafford and Lively are not picking pop players. And they ran a lot of pick and pop with Klieba against the thunder during the regular season. Chet had some mixed results in drop coverage against Dallas. We'll show you some examples on the film when we get there. But similar to Dort, I think Chet's capable of doing a better job than he did during the regular season. I think we'll see Shea guard Derek Jones Jr. And I think we'll see Josh Gideegard, PJ Washington. And for both of them, same sort of thing. A lot of low man
Starting point is 00:10:35 possessions where their guy's going to be in the corner spotting up and they're going to need to help on pick and roll, help in defensive rebounding situations, help on drive. So it's going to be a lot of like help and rebound responsibilities from those two guys. They'll primarily run deep drop. They did some trapping with Chet, but they'll primarily run deep. deep drop. When the Mavs try to attack Josh Giddy in particular, I think they'll do a lot of hedging and recovering. They did that in the regular season just to prevent Giddy from getting into any unfavorable matchups. Keys for both teams. For Dallas, get favorable matchups for Luca early in possessions with more guard to guard screens and then also pushing in transition to get cross
Starting point is 00:11:15 matches. One of the things that they had a lot of success with on tape was stack pick and roll. so they'd have Luca as the main ball handler. They'd have Gafford or lively come up and set the screen. And then as Luca comes downhill, they'd have Kyrie underneath the basket, back screen chet, and then pop out to the three point line. They were spamming that in the, I want to say it was in the third quarter of one of the games that I was watching. I've watched a bunch of film on this matchup today because I had such a poor feel for
Starting point is 00:11:44 who I felt comfortable with in this series. I watched more film on this one than I did any of the other series I've watched this year. or that I previewed in this playoff run. And they, but there was a game. I want to say it was the one, the Mavericks won big. And they, they really leaned into stack pick and roll in like an early third quarter run where they kind of started to pull away.
Starting point is 00:12:06 And actually, I think it was like mid third quarter, not that it matters. Anyway, they spammed it a bunch of times in a row, and they got a bunch of buckets out of it from a bunch of different reads. And so I think they'll run that quite a bit. On Oklahoma City side, pressure Luca full court with Dort. eat into the shot clock, wear Luca out. Less time to run action that way, too.
Starting point is 00:12:24 Again, like the Mavs, when you can kind of get them deep in the clock to where some of their lesser offensive players are trying to make plays with like four or five seconds on the shot clock, that's where you can play them into their worst tendencies. And then again, I think it's going to take a team defensive effort with Kyrie. You know, Jalen Williams in particular, like just a little upright for Kyrie, but we'll see. He might hold up better in the postseason with more physicality and more intensity. Also, don't be surprised if we see a lot of case on Wallace to try to deal with the Kyrie problem.
Starting point is 00:12:53 And then again, cleaning up the defensive glass. That's going to be a big one just in general. Dallas was really, I know they didn't do a ton of damage to Oklahoma City in the regular season on the offensive glass. They did a ton of damage to the clippers, though, in the first round on the offensive glass. So that's going to be a big one for Oklahoma City. Moving to Oklahoma City on offense, as I said, I think we're going to see a lot more variety in the defensive looks that we see from Dallas. I think they'll probably start game one. with Kyrie on Shea.
Starting point is 00:13:19 It's crazy as that sounds. Derek Jones Jr. on Jalen, Luca on Lou Dort, and then PJ Washington on Josh Giddy. And then Daniel Gafford on Chet, I think that's how those start. But we very well might see Kyrie shift onto Josh Giddy
Starting point is 00:13:35 and move PJ Washington onto one of their main two shot creators. I think that'll be a more of like a primary look we'll see throughout the series. Is Derek Jones on Shea, PJ Washington on Jalen, and then Kyrie to Josh. Kitty, but Kyrie's been defending really well, and I wouldn't be surprised if in their team film sessions and stuff and in their prep, I wouldn't be surprised if Kyrie's speaking up to Jason Kidd and saying, I want to guard one of those guys. And we'll see if he ends up doing so.
Starting point is 00:14:04 Again, one of the things that's going to be interesting is the Derek Jones, PJ, Washington, Shea, Jalen kind of dynamic. I think you can go both ways. There's going to be, I think they're going to start Derek Jones on Shay because Derek Jones has been taking the higher leverage point of attack assignments for the most part here down the tail end of the season. But there's a case to be made that PJ Washington is actually a better matchup for Shea. She's not as athletic downhill. She gets a ton of drives to the basket, but it's more hesitation and it's a lot of shiftiness. Jalen's like a real downhill threat. And so part of me wonders if Derek Jones Jr. actually matches up better with Jalen Williams in terms of his ability to beat him to spots. Whereas
Starting point is 00:14:44 Shay when he's doing the herky jerky shifty kind of thing and when he tries to get into your body and use that off arm to kind of get separation to take those short stepbacks, I wonder if PJ Washington can absorb that contact better and get and has better length to get contests. So I bet you they kind of tweak that around back and forth a little bit. And again, what you do is early in the series, you kind of let both guys have opportunities on both guys. And then you make a read on tape, like which guy's doing a better job making which guy feel uncomfortable. The Chet problem.
Starting point is 00:15:16 So Chet's only three for nine on pick and pop three so far in this postseason. So I expect him to start with Gafford lively on Chet and just run drop. And then if Chet catches on the three point line, they'll have Gafford or Lively just close out as best as they can. But there will almost certainly be at least one game in the series, if not a few, where Chet's hitting. And it could just be like Miles Turner against the Bucks or maybe he's just hitting the entire series. And if that happens, that's where the Maxi Kleba loss is huge, because he's the kind of versatile defender that can make that job a lot more achievable. So imagine you have Derek Jones
Starting point is 00:15:51 Jr. on, in PJ Washington, on Jalen Williams and Shagel's Alexander. If you're matched up on those two guys, if you have Kleba on Chet, then you can just switch everything. Any Jalen Chet ball screen, just switch. You trust Kleba to do a decent job on Jalen, right? If it's a Shea Chet ball screen, you just switch. You trust Cleba to do a good job on Shea, right? And then on the flip side of that, you don't think Chet's going to bully PJ Washington or Derek Jones Jr. So, like, those are, that's an easy fix if Cleba is available. But without Kleba, I think we'll see Dallas try two different things.
Starting point is 00:16:28 First, I think they might just try putting the center on Josh Giddy. This is a look they went with during the regular season that I'll show you guys when we get to the tape. But you just take Derek Lively or Josh Gitty, which everyone's on, or excuse me, Gats. and whichever one's on the floor, and Gidey will just be sitting in the corner and you just have them sit in the paint and help. Then you move PJ Washington to Chet Holmgren. That's when you put Kyrie Irving on Shea, and then you basically switch any Chet ball screen with PJ, and that will at least allow you to prevent Chet from breaking open on those pick and pops. Now, one of the things you have to be prepared for there, and I'll show you guys this on tape as well, Oklahoma City has seen this coverage
Starting point is 00:17:07 before. Teams have been putting their center on Giddy often throughout the regular season. And so one of the things you'll see is they'll just bring up whoever, they'll just bring up Giddy into the ball screen instead of running it with Chet. In that case, you live with the results just running deep drop. Giddy is not a good movement shooter, so he's not going to slip out of that ball screen quickly and knock down shots. You just run your deep drop coverage. You chase with Kyrie over the top Bon Shea and you funnel into Gafford and if Giddy catches on the perimeter, you just close out, right? But that is what Oklahoma City will do sometimes to counter putting the center on Giddy. They'll just start setting ball screens with Giddy.
Starting point is 00:17:51 The second thing that I think we'll see them do is just go super small and just go, this is not ideal. The ideal small ball group for Dallas would be Klieba and PJ Washington together with Derek Jones and Kyrie and Luca. hopefully the news with Klebe's shoulder is that he's able to come back in three weeks. And if Dallas can somehow win the series, then he returns halfway through the conference finals, right? That's what you're crossing your fingers for. But in the short term, you got to have some sort of small ball look. I think you go with PJ Washington at center. And then what you do is you bring in either Dante Exum or Josh Green.
Starting point is 00:18:26 Those are two of your stockier guards that can guard up a little bit. And then you run those two guys with Kyrie, Luca, and Derek Jones. And then from there, you put PJ on Chet, you put Derek Jones on Shea or Jalen, and then you put the other, Dante XM or Josh Green on the other one of those guys, do more switching like I talked about. That I think is another look that we'll see. I think you can get away with going super small against Oklahoma City in a way that you can't with some other teams around the league just because Oklahoma City is pretty small. But definitely the Cleveland loss is going to be big.
Starting point is 00:18:58 But I think those are a couple looks that Dallas can go with to deal with the Chet problem if he gets going and pick and pop. Predictions. Again, I view this series as more or less of a coin flip. If Maxi Klebe was healthy, I'd give Dallas a clear edge. I wouldn't give, there wouldn't be a massive favorite, but I'd pick Dallas and feel more comfortable with it. But without him, I think it's a really tough series to call either way.
Starting point is 00:19:20 And I think the Vegas odds are a clear sign of that as well. Both teams have negative odds. So if you bet $100, you're winning less than $100 on either team, if you bet them to win the series. So I'm going to pick Dallas still for three reasons. One, I've been really impressed with Dallas's overall physicality on the front line so far in this postseason. Now, obviously, Kaliba being out affects that, but they were the third best offensive rebounding team in the first round. They grabbed 32% of their own misses.
Starting point is 00:19:48 And as we know, that's a huge weakness for Oklahoma City. I think they were 28th in defensive rebounding in the regular season. Two, I think Luca is a better player than Shea. He's bigger, he's stronger, and he is substantially more playoff experience. And then three, I'm a big believer in Jalen Williams's long-term potential. I've said this before. I think he has the potential to be better than Shea. But I think Kyrie is a little bit more prepared for this type of series in terms of experience.
Starting point is 00:20:13 And so those three things kind of give me a tiny bit of an edge. Honestly, that gap almost gets closed for me because I think Oklahoma City does have more offensive skill down the roster after their stars. And Oklahoma City has an incredible home court advantage and they're going to get four home games in this series. So it's still razor, razor thin for me. I'm going to pick Dallas in six, but I don't feel good about it. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.
Starting point is 00:20:43 Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:21:07 A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clipper Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way,
Starting point is 00:21:21 this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, the Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes
Starting point is 00:21:38 of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream,
Starting point is 00:21:56 this is right what you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun,
Starting point is 00:22:17 thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?
Starting point is 00:22:43 Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.
Starting point is 00:23:01 Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so. Thank you for finishing that sentence.
Starting point is 00:23:24 And I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We're just going to do a quick series preview of Cavs Celtics. We're running a little tight on time. Also, this is by far the biggest long shot of any of the second round series.
Starting point is 00:23:50 The Celtics are favored at minus 1,200, which is like a massive. massive number for a second round playoff series. But I want to give my two cents on just my outlook on the series going in. We're going to break it down and I'll give a prediction at the end. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to our brandy YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under hoops tonight.
Starting point is 00:24:15 And the last but at least, keep dropping mailbag questions underneath this video so that we can keep hitting mailbags throughout the rest of the post season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So the Celtics won the season series, two to one. The only loss was in the Dean Wade game. That was the game where the calves were down by 22 with nine minutes left. Dean Wade got red hot from three. He had a tip dunk, or it was either a tip dunk or an offensive rebound dunk.
Starting point is 00:24:39 I can't even remember. But I vividly remember Drew Holiday not boxing him out. That's all I remember is Drew not boxing out. Dean crashed it in, getting a dunk. And then on the other end of the floor, Tatum attacks Darius Garland on a switch, gets a fadeaway jump shot off, draws a foul, they review it, they overturn it, calves pull off the improbable comeback. The metrics from the season series. 11.2 offensive rating for the Celtics, a 113.2 offensive rating for the Cavs. Celtics
Starting point is 00:25:10 dominated the glass. They grabbed 54.5% of available rebounds. The Celtics won points off of turnovers, 20.3 to 17.9 per 100 possessions. Cavs won second chance points. 14.8 to 14.1 per 100 possession. Celtics won fast break points 13.4 to 9.3 per 100, and the Celtics one points in the paint, 45.5 to 40 per 100. On draft kings, the Celtics are currently a minus 1,200 favorite. As I mentioned earlier, that's just a massive number. Let's get into it very briefly on both ends of the floor. The Cavs on offense, the Celtics started Drew Holiday on him during the regular season. Mitchell played really well. He averaged 30 points per game on 50% shooting in the two games he played.
Starting point is 00:25:53 Just 9 assists to 6 turnovers in those two games, though. Derek White will in all likelihood guard Darius Garland. Huge factor in the series is whether or not Jared Allen's actually going to play, right? Like, I would have thought he would have played in Game 7 if he was feeling up for it, and he clearly didn't. So who knows if we'll see him in this series? I'm going to proceed as though he does. I don't think whether or not he plays makes that much of a difference in whether or not the
Starting point is 00:26:16 Cavs can win the series, but we're going to break it down from the perspective of Jared playing. With that, with Jared Allen on the floor, I expect a bunch of random stuff from Boston with their backline guys. So they played a, like, they played two games in Boston two days apart early in the season. And at the end of the first game, one of the things the Celtics did is they put Jason Tatum on Jared Allen so that they could switch ball screens that involved Jared Allen. And Tatum is a big strong forward that can kind of hang physically in that matchup, right? Then two days later, they actually started and closed the game. with Jason Tatum guarding Jared Allen.
Starting point is 00:26:51 So if Jared Allen plays, I think we may see that. And there are versions of this where we may see that even with Evan Mobley, where they do something like if Allen's out and Isaac O'Coro starts, then you might see Al Horford guard Isaac O'Coro and just kind of roam around in the paint and then have Tatum guard Evan Mobley and switch ball screens. So don't be surprised if we see a lot of janky stuff like that from Boston where they put their forwards on Cleveland Biggs to try to disrupt the Cavs, ball screen attack. As we know, the Cavs run a lot of pick and roll. It's the primary driving force
Starting point is 00:27:24 of their offensive attack. And if you have the ability to switch that action, it turns them into an ISO team. And again, that's just a lot to ask for Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland in a large sample. But the truth is, we're, like, it's going to take a heroic performance from Garland and Mitchell under any circumstances to keep this series competitive. Moving to the Celtics on offense, again, assuming Allen is back. I think we'll see Max Struhe, on Jason Tatum. The Caz defended Tatum well in the regular season. They held him to 39% shooting.
Starting point is 00:27:54 Again, the game plan there is you want to shrink the gaps to take away his driving lanes and bait him into pull-up jumpers. Tatum has cooled off, like way off on his pull-up jumper again. He got hot a little bit there in like January, but he's just 36% on them post-all-star break or 0.94 points per shot. Again, anything below a point is pretty inefficient for pull-up jumpers, especially on a volume guy like Tatum, who takes so many of them. he shot just 14 for 37 on them in the first round, 0.95 points per shot.
Starting point is 00:28:23 So we're on like three months of basketball now where Tatum has been back to where he's typically been as a pull-up jump shooter, which is inefficient. So if you can sit in the driving lanes and bait him into pull-up jumpers, you'll bait him into an inefficient series. I think we'll see Evan Mobley on Jalen Brown. Did a good job contesting his pull-up jumpers in this matchup. However, he did give up some drives, some quick-slashing drives, and Brown is stronger than him. And so when he gets those angles, he can kind of get physical and get angles to the basket.
Starting point is 00:28:52 So for Mobley, it's about keeping a level stance, so not opening up any driving lanes, and then just giving more space so you can offer a contest when the shot does go up. I think we'll see Donovan Mitchell on Derek White. Again, a lot of two-man game with Derek White and Jason Tatum. So it's going to be about game plan discipline. When Derek White has the ball, if they're not switching, it's going to be about chasing over the top. When Derek White sets those screens on Tatum, it's going to be about hedging and recovering and getting back to Derek White. Derek White is a good movement shooter.
Starting point is 00:29:19 So closeouts are going to be key. Darius Garland on Drew Holiday, we know Boston is going to look to attack Garland in the post with Drew, but it's kind of just the best version of those matchups anyway. And again, the Cavs are going to have a lot of favor. The Celtics are going to have a lot of favorable matchups over the course of the series. That said, the Cavs are a really good defense. They're fast. They play really hard.
Starting point is 00:29:40 They defend the three-point line really well. They allowed the sixth fewest wide-open threes in the league this year. that's defender at least six feet away. And they're top 12 in both three-point attempts allowed and three-pointers made per 100 possession. So they will play the Celtics into some cold streaks. I mean, when they won, that game that they blew the 22-point lead, I did a full film session on that in the regular season.
Starting point is 00:29:59 And so you guys who follow the show will remember this, but the Celtics missed every single jump shot they took in that nine-minute stretch. Like, you make one of them, you win the game. So, like, they will play the Celtics into some cold streaks, but I just think the Celtics are going to be able to play the Cavs into many, many more cold streak. So I'm picking the Celtics in five. I think the Cavs will get one because I trust their defense and they have a great home crowd. But if they even manage to push this to six, I would consider that to be an incredibly impressive achievement considering the talent gap.
Starting point is 00:30:33 So picking the Celtics in five. All right, guys, that was a quick one. That's all I got for today. I will see you guys later tonight after the final buzzer of Nuggets Wolves for Game 2 instant reaction. Also covering Nick's Pacers in that game, I will see you guys then. Volume. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Starting point is 00:31:20 Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Swindler. Michael and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:31:44 On The Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.
Starting point is 00:32:02 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.
Starting point is 00:32:21 You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrating. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes,
Starting point is 00:32:46 follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds, I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
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