The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Mavericks-Timberwolves Reaction: Luka Doncic game-winner STUNS Wolves, series over?

Episode Date: May 25, 2024

Jason Timpf reacts to Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks' STUNNING 109-108 Game 2 win over Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. Jason discusses Luka's game-winner, how the Mavs have figured out the Minnesota defense, and whether he thinks this series is OVER heading back to Dallas for Game 3. #volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Happy Friday, everybody. Hope all of you guys have had a great week. Game two of the Western Conference Finals goes to the Dallas Mavericks on a game winner from Luca Donchitz in a hell of a game. With three seconds left, Lucas steps back over Rudy Gobert. Now Dallas is up 2-0 and they're headed home and Minnesota is in a world of trouble. We're going to break it down from the perspective of both teams.

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so we keep hitting them throughout the rest of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So obviously from the Minnesota perspective, it would be easy to talk yourself into kind of a positive outlook for being down 2-0, right? Like, you led late in game 1, you led late in game 2. You could just as easily be up 2-0 as you are currently in your situation where you're down 0-2, right? I mean, just look at tonight. Like if Luca misses a step-back or if Nasreid hits his 3 from the right wing, then it's 1-1, right?

Or if something goes differently in game 1, maybe you're up 2-0, right? I see it very differently. And, like, for the record, I picked Minnesota to start the series. But like, I don't care about being right. That means nothing to me. To quote the great Colin Coward, what really matters is getting it right to me. And I genuinely feel that way. I take this job very seriously.

And I just, my job is to look at what's happening on the basketball court and try to interpret it into something, right? And regardless of what may or may not have happened to Minnesota to be in this predicament down to, oh, the reality is that Dallas is way more capable of manipulating Minnesota's defense. getting what they want, then Minnesota is on the other end of the floor. Nasreed hit a three with, I think it was like a couple minutes left. I can't remember. But they put them up 102, 101. And I tweeted at that moment, I was like, Minnesota's up one.

They very well might win this game, but it doesn't matter. Dallas is going to win the series. And it's because of these specific dynamics that I'm talking about. We're going to get into the details, but like, it just, it wouldn't have mattered if they would have won this game. I had a mailback question last night. Someone asked. ask me about overreacting to game ones, right? Like, that's always what happens, right? Like, somebody wins game one. And then everybody that picked that particular team to win starts running on victory

laps. And then everyone else is, like, scared that they're wrong. And it's like, actually a lot can just be weird in a game one, right? You need a substantial sample size of basketball to really interpret what the advantages are for either team. And regardless of the result, forget about, like, because Dallas, what did Dallas win? 109, 108, 108 tonight?

Forget about the scoreboard. If you actually just look at what was happening on the court, it's very clear that Dallas has more advantages than Minnesota does in this series. Let's talk them through. Luca versus Jada McDaniels. And then Anthony Edwards versus Derek Jones, Jr. Who looks more comfortable getting to their spots against those individual matchups? Lucas too big and strong for Jada McDaniels.

Derek Jones Jr. is another top-tier NBA athlete with length, and you can actually match up with Anthony Edwards a little bit better. Obviously, there's a team scheme element to it, and we'll get it a little bit into that in a little bit. But there's no doubt that even just on an island, Luca has a better matchup. Minnesota does not have a guy that can make Luca feel uncomfortable. Dallas does, at least to a certain extent, with Anthony Edwards.

The Kyrie matchup. Kyrie versus Anthony Edwards, and then Carl Anthony Towns v. PJ Washington. Those are your secondary stars, right? Who looks more comfortable? getting to their spots and contributing offensively. Kyrie Irving or Carl Anthony Towns. Very clearly, Carl Anthony Towns, right?

I pulled these ISO stats because these are absolutely crazy. Game 1, Dallas got 1.11 points per ISO, Minnesota got 0.39. Game 2, Dallas gets 1.29 points per ISO. Minnesota gets 0.44 points per ISO. So even just on an island scoring, Luca and Kyrie clearly have better advantages, is in this series than Anthony Edwards and Carl Anthony Towns do, right?

Look at the pick and roll. When the MAVs run pick and roll, Luca Donchage can very easily get Jada McDaniels into trail position where he can put him into jail and either operate somewhere in the midrange or get downhill and manipulate Rudy Gobert into helping in some way, shape, or form so that he can throw a drop off pass or he's making the kickout reads the other end of the floor. Derek Jones and PJ Washington go 0 for 7 from 3 tonight. They're still not shooting well.

By the way, jump shooting in this game. It was really bad in game one. Minnesota 1.14 points per jumper, Dallas 0.93. So Dallas is still on the short end of the stick in terms of shooting result in this series. We've seen in this playoff run, PJ Washington and Derek Jones Jr. convert spot-up possessions at a hell of a higher rate than they have so far in this series. Dallas looks way more comfortable in pick and roll. Look at the wolves.

On the wolf's front, it's like high drop against Anthony Edwards. They're able to contest his pull-up. up three better than Denver did. They're like literally Anthony Edwards is incapable of getting into the lane. He is two for eight in the restricted area so far in this entire series through two games. So that's bad no matter how you look at it. The percentages, 25% in the restricted area, that's bad. Eight attempts in two games.

He averaged over seven attempts in the restricted area per game in the entire seven game Denver Nugget series. So like no matter how you look at it, the only opportunity for Minnesota to score effectively is to get out and transition off of stops. Whereas any time Dallas wants to, they can methodically execute and get to a high quality shot in the half court. They've been up over 100 points per 100 half court plays in both games. They are dominating the half court battle in the series. The only reason that it has appeared as close as it has is because of the fact that they've knocked

down three point shots. Guys like Jaden McDaniels hitting in game one, guys like Nas read hitting in game two, they've shot the ball better, and it's the only reason it has looked as close as it has. But the advantages are very clear. Dallas is more capable of manipulating Minnesota's defense and getting quality shots than Minnesota is capable of doing on the other end of the floor. So regardless of what would have happened tonight, and by the way, Dallas is up 2-0, so it's manifested in the result.

But regardless of what would have happened tonight or if Minnesota would have split the two games or if Minnesota would have been up to O, I think Dallas would have gone home and won two and regain control of the series anyway. Now, who knows if Dallas will relax in some sort of profound way going home and Minnesota manages to steal one of those games? But I think this series is over. I think it's over regardless of what happened down the stretch tonight, Dallas just, it's a lot of its matchup based. And that's the fascinating piece of this, right? Like, looking back, Minnesota goes up against a couple of really poor rim protection teams in Phoenix and Denver, and their offense wakes up in a way it never did all season, right? And Dallas has the ability to kind of play them into those situations, right?

But like, that's how it goes, right? That, like, matchups are what determines basketball games in so many different ways. And Dallas is just very well equipped to beat this Minnesota Timberwolves team. And the Timberwolves do not have many more cards. they can play. They can try benching Rudy Gobert and playing their shooting bigs instead to try to space the floor for Ant. That might get them going offensively, but I think they're going to get picked, like, they're getting picked apart now with Rudy Gobert on the floor. Just wait until you see what it looks like when you ditch Rudy Gobert. And here's the thing, Rudy Gobert, he's getting slandered all over the place. By the way, he did a very poor job on that final possession. I clipped a little screenshot you guys can see where Rudy Gobert, like, they're down two.

everybody in the entire world knows Luca's hunting a three there. Everybody. Except for Rudy Gobert, apparently. Because on the last move that Luca Vajic hits, Rudy takes a negative step with his right foot. So he's got his back turned to Luca. I took a screenshot of this and put up my Twitter feed.

His right foot is about 17 feet from the rim. So just behind the foul line. And his back is turned as he's getting ready to turn back to close out on Luca. He bit on a dribble drive fake on a possession where everybody knew that the dribble drive doesn't hurt you because at the worst case scenario you're going to overtime and everybody knows Luke is a psychopath and he's going to be going for the three-point shot.

But here's the thing. Rudy Gobert did a poor job on that final possession, but he's still a very good defensive player and Minnesota has fared better in this series when he's been on the floor. So if you think that benching Rudy Gobert is just going to magically solve all of your problems, I disagree. I think that your defense will just get substantially worse than any sort of increase you might get on the offensive end of the four. Minnesota can try switching and pick and roll more, right? That's an option they could go to.

Well, we just saw that on the final possession of today's game. And my guess is Luca would just figure out Rudy Gobert as well over the course of some sort of large sample size. They can try to blitz more. Dallas still hasn't really shot well, though. And, you know, Derek Jones and PJ Washington went 0 for 7 from 3 tonight. That might be their best strategy for Minnesota to try to slow this offense down, but it hasn't yielded good results.

Like, I don't think that that's going to be some sort of magical fix in this series. Again, jump shooting tonight, Minnesota was better again. Dallas dominated points in the paint again. Like, I don't think that there's some sort of magical card that Minnesota can play that can flip the obvious dynamic that Dallas is a better half-court offense. This is where we got to get to Luca. He just unbelievably amazing again. you know, in terms of like actually operating from the perimeter.

Like I think, I think that we can get into arguments about this kind of thing over the summer. But like, Nicola Yokic is the guy that you would point to as someone who might be better than Luca Donchich. But in terms of like operating from the perimeter, with the ball in your hands, live dribble, there is nobody in the NBA that can dissect an elite defense in the half court the way that, Luca Donchich can't. There aren't very many perimeter defenders that can even make him feel remotely uncomfortable. Like Lou Dort did about as good of a job as he could. And Luke is still found away with the strength of their defense and with support from Kyrie Irving, they knocked off the one seed even with a perimeter defender that is like built in some sort of bizarre NFL lab to be

the guy who guards Luca Donchich, right? So you can't find a guy who can guard him on an island. There's no coverage that works. You try switching. He's going to barbecue your big man. That's the, that's one. I don't, I don't think. Rudy Gobert is as good defensively as his accolades would lead you to believe, but he's still a very good defensive player. Is he as good as Anthony Davis or Bametabio or Victor Wimbunyama or Dremont Green? Probably not. But he's still damn good.

And Luca barbecued his ass, right? You can try blitzing. He's going to make the read every single time. And it's going to end in either lob dunks or corner threes. Again, Derek Lively in particular has just been so damn good on the short role, making decisions when he kind of gets into space off of those blitzes. There's literally nothing you can do with Luca. He's going to find a way.

The amount of comically easy shots that he generated against Minnesota's defense in these first two games is insane. Dallas hasn't shot nearly as well as they are capable of. It hasn't even manifested in the way that it can manifest. But still, when push comes to shove, late in these games, he's found a way to keep the ball in his hands through straight ISO, and he's been able to get the looks that he needs.

to close the deal. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts. or wherever you get your podcasts. The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself.

We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you find clarity, peace, and self-mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming lonelier. We're not becoming more social and connected. We're becoming more individualized, but we actually meet people in connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, I'm Jared Adano.

You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself.

And on my new podcast, hope from a hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most

legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Cream a chicken suit. Hey, cream. Cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrat as part of the Mycultura podcast network available on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts. or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conky, his best friend, and business manager.

And we've got a new show called The 1021 podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Kyrie Irving once again came up huge when it mattered. Hits three threes at the beginning of the fourth quarter that kind of like he raised any sort of benefit that Minnesota got out of Nause Reed's hot streak.

He missed those two clutch free throws late. They were weird too. Kind of his release looked kind of weird. That was kind of a funky sequence. But then he makes up for it by hitting that huge corner three later that cuts the lead to two. And like once again, like there's always the shot before the shot that gets looked over, right? It's like it's like the Ray Allen corner three in the 2013 finals. LeBron hit a three on the previous possession.

Like there's always like a shot before the shot. Kyrie's three in that corner was the shot before the shot that Luca hit that like put them in a position where they could get there. That was a massive, massive bucket. It's been kind of a theme in this postseason that he can kind of ease into games. And then like he just finds it. It's always like that early fourth quarter stretch when Luke is off the floor. that Kyriegis goes super sand and finds a way to get baskets for his team and put them over

the edge. And then I just have to shout out Derek lively and Daniel Gafford. They are kicking ass in this series. They're protecting the hell out of the rim. I pointed out the Anthony Edwards 2 for 8 and the restricted area is that. Here's another crazy stat for you. Minnesota shot 65% in the restricted area against Denver. They're shooting 54% in the restricted area against Dallas. That is an 11% reduction in efficiency there. 54% they're barely making more than half of their layups against this Dallas defense. And that's Lively and Gafford.

They've been incredible. Would Gafford have four blocks tonight? Derek Lively had a huge stop on a switch against Anthony Edwards late in the game. They've just been absolutely awesome. I can't say enough about him. Lucas playing, like, Lucas is banged up and he's playing like the best player in the world. Kyrie Irving is in a perfectly suited role for him on this team where he's contributing on both ends of the floor in a big way. They've just absolutely hit slam dunk signings on the margins

in the offseason like Derek Jones Jr. Even again, even the Grant William signing, the sign and trade, that was a vehicle with which they used to bring back guys like PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. Like it just they just look like they just have. put this together in such a beautiful way to accentuate their stars. I just can't say enough about how impressed I've been with Dallas in this series. Again, like, I very, you guys know me, I very rarely am like, this series is over guy. Even when Minnesota went up to O, if you guys remember, I was like, yeah, I think Minnesota is going to win, but I can't say the series is over. This series is over. Like, Minnesota cannot solve these problems that Dallas presents to them.

and it's all of these guys. Luca and Kyrie are kicking the shit out of Carl Anthony Towns. Derek lively and Daniel Gafford are kicking the shit out of Rudy Gobert. It is a matchup by matchup. Dallas is just outclassing them. And the only reason it has appeared as close as it has is three-point shooting. Like, yeah, if PJ Washington and Derek Jones Jr. shoot remotely the way they've been shooting the remainder of the rest of this postseason,

they're winning both of these games comfortable. like Minnesota is in a world of trouble. On the Minnesota front. I want to talk about Anthony Edwards for a second. I had another nightmare games, five or 17 from the field. The main thing that's standing out to me, I talked a lot about this dynamic in the Phoenix series, but Anthony Edwards is such a profoundly gifted downhill athlete that his pull-up jumper becomes really easy because he's just coming downhill at you and every defender's on their heels. But because of the way that Dallas can protect the rim. It has allowed Derek Jones Jr. to press up a little bit more on Ant

in a way that the other opponents could not. And it has put him in a predicament where now the majority of his shot attempts are coming in the form of pull-up jump shots. He's taken eight shots in the restricted area. Eight of them. In two games, everything else is from the perimeter, everything else. And so as a result, instead of that being that given take of like downhill force pull-up jump shooting. Instead, it's like there's nothing downhill, and it's all pull-up jump-shooting. By the way, this is a credit to Dallas's defense.

You don't think Anthony Edwards knew coming into the game. He needed to get downhill more early in this game. He had two downhill drives and transition where he got fouls. He had a playing pick-and-roll where he got downhill. He made a kick-out pass to Carl Anthony Towns. But when Dallas really, really loads up on him, he cannot turn the corner. He cannot get into the lane.

and like, and there's a, like, that has manifested in his jumper not going in. This is the worst, this series has been the worst he shot from the perimeter in his entire playoff career. He's had four series before this where he's been deadly as a pull-up jump shooter. This series, he has not been able to get that part of his game going. And to me, it's because there's not that balance. He can't turn the corner. So now he's, he offensively,

is effectively on his heels, which is allowing Derek Jones to be on his toes and more forward aggressive, he's not getting good looks. And because he's not getting good looks, he's not making them. And this is where, like, you know, it's too early to get into like big offseason kind of big picture stuff with Minnesota, but this is the Gobert problem. And there is a conversation to be had about the pros and cons of having him on the floor. Because he does not have good hands. He does not catch and finish everything. He does not make good decisions on the role. How many times smoke shots at the rim tonight. Like, that's not his game.

He does not provide much in the way of spacing at all whatsoever. And so as a result, like, the game is going to be difficult for Ant, whenever he runs into a team that can truly protect the rim in a playoff setting. Anytime he runs into that problem, this kind of thing will manifest. Now, obviously, there's an opportunity, based on Gobert's contract in the realities of his limitations, he's probably going to be a timber wolf for a long time. Right? So, if you're Anthony Edwards, what's the move there? What does Aint have to get better at to solve this kind of problem? And again, every all-time great runs into a certain type of problem, right? Like for Luca over the

years, it's like, it's kind of like Andrew Wiggins in the 2022 Western Conference finals. Whenever somebody can actually put on a big, strong athlete that Luca can't bully, that's kind of like his big Rubik's cube that he has to solve. By the way, he solved it against Lou Dort and won the series, right? Didn't in 2022. He solved it this year. Right? But like, that's his like big challenge that they has to figure out. What if there's somebody that actually he can't bully, right? Like for LeBron James, what if everyone just sags back and dares you to shoot jumpers? What are you going to do? For Anthony Edwards, it's what if someone can protect the rim and you're this downhill slasher, what are you going to do? And that piece for Anthony,

Edwards, in my opinion, is going to be very similar to what you're seeing from Luca. And it has to learn to add that kind of like in-between change of pace gear. He has to be able to put defenders into jail, manipulate rim protectors, find a way to get past Derek Jones in a ball screen, but then methodically work downhill and generate some kind of opening where you can pick a team apart in the ball screen. Again, Dallas is guarding these ball screens three on two. They are up at the level and they have somebody tagging the roller.

It's three on two. The openings are going to be through dissecting the defense in a similar way to what Luca is doing. That's the next step for him. He's 22 years old. He's got a lot of time to figure it out. But this is not the last team that he's going to run into that's going to have a seven footer that can jump underneath the rim

and a good athlete on the perimeter that can load up on him. and enough speed around him to kind of put three into a ball screen action. Right? So, like, that's going to be the next step for it, is figuring out how to solve this particular type of problem. Overall, for Minnesota, you know, every year I cover the NBA, I learn more. And, again, like, as I said at the beginning of the show, I don't care about being right.

I care about getting it right. And so much is about learning from what the game is teaching us in these results. And I had all of these concerns about Minnesota during the regular season. Like, oh, do they have real, like the real ability to space the floor and counter rim protection? Anthony Edwards and Carl Anthony Towns is decision makers. Look at the decision making at the end of this game from Anthony Edwards, throwing the ball out of bounds, just like inability to kind of solve what's happening in front of him. The late game offense in general, this team was one of the worst late game offenses in the league all year long.

And I think we, myself, got dissuaded by virtue of Phoenix and Denver's inability to protect the rim into thinking that their offense had like figured something out. But all that is is like Ant's superpower is downhill athleticism and those teams just couldn't match up with that problem. Whereas Dallas has something that can counter that. Now it's kind of exposing that issue. And so like, I mean, matchups determine most of this stuff over the course of the NBA. but like all you're seeing from Minnesota is the same sort of issues they had all season. They've just been brought to the forefront by virtue of a matchup that can shy to flashlight on those things. But again, I think Dallas is going to go home.

I think this series is this could very easily be a sweep. I'll say in five just because I have too much respect for Minnesota and what they've accomplished to this point. But I think this series is over. I do not see a move that Minnesota can make to flip the script. The pieces are not there. The chess move is not there. There's, this is checkmate. There's nothing they can do. So, Dallas fans, I think it's, I think you, a barring injury can start getting a little excited about the fact that the NBA

finals is a very realistic goal for you here. Obviously, we're going to cover the rest of the series as though Minnesota does have a chance just because that's the nature of the profession. And we're going to give, we're going to go live after game three and see if they can't turn it around, but I don't see it. I just don't see any sort of easy fix there on the table. guys, that is all I have for tonight. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting the show. We will be back tomorrow morning with a little bit of film session on this game, and then we'll be covering game three of the Eastern Conference Finals. I will see you guys then. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and

friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam, it's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season, and I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was hungry. You just understood.

That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to you. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, everyone. It's Ryder Strong and Will Ferdell from PodMeets World. And now the Pod Meets Twirled podcast. We're two men who were completely clueless to reality TV, and we're gearing up for the season finale of Survivor. I know we annoyed a lot of our listeners by our severe lack of Survivor. knowledge. That is the point of the show. I'm just going to remind you. Again, we are experts. Listen to PodMeets Tworl on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.