The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - MVP: Jayson Tatum or Giannis? Anthony Davis dominating on D, Paolo Banchero a star?

Episode Date: December 4, 2022

Jason Timpf breaks down his quarter-season NBA award winners including a tight race between the Boston Celtics' Jayson Tatum and Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo for league MVP, with Steph Curry and Luka Doncic not far behind. Jason also shares his defensive player of the year, rookie of the year, and most improved player. #herd #volumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Believe it or not, we've already made it a fourth of the way through the season. So we're going to take a look at MVP, most improved player, defensive player of the year, and a rookie of the year. And then tonight's slate of games is jam-packed. I'm going to be recording an instant reaction right after the games tonight. I'm not sure if it'll actually go up on the YouTube feed tonight or tomorrow morning, but keep an eye on the feeds. We will have an instant reaction there.

You guys know the drill before we get started. it's subscribe to the volume's YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos follow me on Twitter at underscore jason l t so you guys don't miss any show announcements and then last but not least if for whatever reason you guys miss one of these videos and you can't get back over to youtube to finish you can find them wherever you get your podcasts under hoops tonight so starting with MVP this is not my favorite award just because of the inconsistencies over the years but i wanted to make sure that for me personally when i'm picking an MVP that i was consistent with my criteria so a few years I nailed it down to three specific criteria,

and then I kind of like combine those three when I'm ranking the players. So those three criteria that I use are who is the best player in the world? Like regardless of situation, who would be the guy you'd want for a season and a playoff run? For instance, like that's the rankings list that I do over the summer. Where you land in that list is one chunk of the pie for me. And then the second chunk of the pie is who's the best player on the best team. This is like your stereotypical MVP's that you've seen over the years like Steph in 2015 or James Hardin in 2018 where maybe that guy wasn't necessarily considered the best player

in the world at that point, but he was clearly the best player on the best team in the league at that point. So that's the middle chunk of the pie. And then the last chunk of the pie for me is who is more directly valuable to their team success. This is where I'm looking at like point differential stuff. Like how good are they with you on the floor versus when you're off the floor? These are your stereotypical MVP cases like Nicoliochitz last year, Russell Westbrook in 2017, where they're a lower seed, but they're playing extremely good basketball and elevating an average supporting cast to a mid-level playoff berth. So I'm going to factor all three of those things in for all these players and kind of combine them as I rank the players. So number one, at this point in the season,

I think is clearly Jason Tatum. So to keep it simple, Jason Tatum is clearly in the conversation for best player in the world. I wouldn't put him directly there right now. I think Steph and Janice are clearly ahead of him. But he's every, like he has every case to be at the top of the group of guys that's right behind them. So this season, Tatum is averaging 32, 8, and 5 on 64% true shooting. If Kevin Durant was doing that, if Steph Curry was doing that, if LeBron James was doing that, we'd all be calling them the MVP. Once again, he's paying like a Tatum tax. It's more like a Boston Celtics tax where people are underrating how good he's been just simply because of who he is and who he plays for. But he has unquestionably been one of the best players in the league this year.

So he's doing really well in that first chunk. And then the second chunk, which is team success, the Celtics are the best team in the league by a mile. They're 18 and 4. They're playing at a 67 win pace. They have a two-game lead on the rest of the field. They have the best net rating in the league by 1.7 points per 100 possessions over second place. and they're on a five-game winning street. So they're clearly the best team in the league,

and he's clearly in the conversation for best player in the world. And then when we look at how valuable he is to the Celtics, they're plus 12 per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and they're plus four per 100 possessions with him off the floor. So to simplify that, they're unbelievably good when he's on the floor, and they're just pretty good when he's off the floor. That's a significant differential. So he's checking all three boxes in resounding fashion.

This is a classic MVP case. Obviously, he has to maintain it through another three-fourths of the season, but right now I think he's the clear MVP at this point. All right, number two, Janus. So when we're talking about that first chunk, best player in the world, Janice is actually the best player in the world. I had him number one on my list coming in this year, so he's got that box completely checked.

He's averaging a career high, 31 points per game, with 12 rebounds and 6 assists. His efficiency is down a little bit this year. actually, Yanis's first time being below 60% true shooting since 2018. But a big part of that is injuries. With Pat Connetson being out, with Chris Middleton being out, even Drew Hollidays missed some time, the spacing isn't quite as good around Janus, and his usage is higher as a result of the fact that they don't have as much offensive creation.

So that's typically going to cause you some issues in efficiency. As we look at the team, the Bucks are 15 and 5, only two games back from Boston. So in the team success portion, he's also. also got that pretty well checked. As far as differential goes, there are plus nine points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor, and then they're even when he's off the floor. So it's a similar differential to Tatum. So as we look out, his case is also very, very good. I think Tatum is just having a slightly better season, and I think his team is slightly better. So that gives Tatum the nod here. But it is close. And I do think that Janus, I predicted that Janus would

win the MVP before the season. Obviously at this point with what we know about Janus and with what we know about Jason Tatum and given the small gap between the two, I still predict that Janus will eventually end up getting the MVP award, but I do think if the season ended today, it would have to go to Tatum. All right, number three, Devin Booker. Is he in the best player in the world conversation? No, I'd say he's probably closer to 10 than he is to 1. So that's the major week portion of his case. But he is having by far the best season of his career, and he has taken a leap from star to superstar, in my opinion.

I did a whole video on him yesterday that you can find in my Twitter feed at underscore Jason L.T., breaking down his high-level offensive initiation that he demonstrated in a comeback win over the Sacramento Kings earlier this week. He's averaging a career high 29 points per game with five rebounds and six assists. He's shooting, he's got a 60% true shooting percentage, which is insane. and I believe this is the best playmaking season and best defensive season of his career. Now, he's had seasons where he's averaged more assists,

but they were on really bad sons teams where he was a lot more heliocentric. In this particular season, when you factor in the stakes, the level of competition, and just, you know, with them being in a winning concept, I think this has been the highest level playmaking I've seen from him. So, again, not doing strong in that specific criteria, but he's also a lot higher there than people would probably realize.

looking at the team the sons are 15 and 6 they're the top seed in the west they are plus 9.9 points per 100 possessions with them on the floor and minus 1.4 points per 100 possessions with him off that's an 11.3 point differential that's MVP level stuff they're an outstanding team with them on the floor and they're a negative team with them off the floor so you know as we look as we zoom out with devon booker he's got the team success thing and he's got the value to his team thing he's just a little weak in that actually actual hierarchy of the NBA. That's why I have him down at number three. Number four, Steph Curry. So at a minimum, he's the second best player alive. I used to think that there was a chasm between Janus and the rest of the field, in large part because Steph had a great playoff run, but he didn't have a great regular season last year,

and he had some poor shooting at certain points during the playoffs. So, like, it was one of those things where, you know, you still view Steph in great esteem, but you don't view him as the same type of regular season weapon as Janus, right? but he completely put that to rest this year. He's having just a completely ludicrous offensive season that has erased that chasm, in my opinion. I still give a slight nod to Janus as the best player in the world,

but Steph is clearly a better offensive player than Janus. He's arguably the best offensive player that's ever played, and he's arguably having the best offensive season that any player has ever had, and that might be enough for some folks to put him up at number one. I just have him barely behind Janus at number two. so he's doing really well in that first criteria. The Warriors are 11 and 11. This is where Steph is going to lose a ton of ground in these rankings.

They didn't defend nearly well enough during that five-game road trip on the East Coast, and they went 0 and 5 and it dug them in a big hole. But the team does appear to be putting some things together, and he could move up this list if the Warriors move up the standings. The differential is where Steph is completely insane, and this is his long shot to win MVP. So the Warriors are plus 11.2 points per 100 possessions with Steph on the floor, and they are minus 16.5 points per 100 possessions with him off the floor.

That is a 27.7 point differential with Steph on versus when he's off. He is so vital to everything they do offensively. In terms of pure value, that third chunk, he has a chasm between him and the rest of the field. So in a year like last year, he probably would have won MVP, but the problem is you have some more clear-cut candidates this year. So the Warriors are definitely going to have to win more games in order for Steph to get it. But if it's close, if the Warriors are a two-seat out west,

and he's got a 28-point differential, and Tatum's got an eight-point differential, I could see some voters gravitating back towards Steph, especially with the legitimacy of him having just won his first finals MVP and his fourth championship. All right, number five, I have Luca Donchich. He's kind of similar to Jason Tatum in the sense that he's in that group of players that's right below Janice and Steph, clearly in the conversation for best player in the world,

but also clearly not the best player in the world. He's averaging a career high 34 points per game with nine rebounds and nine assists, a career high 61% true shooting percentage. He's also been defending a lot better as of late after a pretty rough start to the season, but the team, once again, not his first. fault. It's a supporting cast thing, similar to the staff thing. But the Mavericks are 10 and 11, and that's just not going to get it done. That's where he's getting hurt. On the differential side of things, the Mavericks are plus 4.3 points per 100 possessions with Luca on the floor, and they are

minus 5.2 points per 100 possessions with him off. That is a 9.5 point swing. So he's playing MVP-level basketball, and he's good enough in the hierarchy of the league, but the Mavericks are just going to have to win more games for him to ever be considered, which is why when I saw him as the preseason favorite on Fanduil, I just didn't understand that, and I thought it was a bad bet. I just never thought the Mavericks would be able to win enough games. And you know, one last note on the Luca thing, and I talked about this a little bit in our technical difficulties episode on Tuesday. That's why I'm going to rehash it here a little bit. But it bothers me that we have a tendency to jump down and denigrate players when their team struggles when it was a obvious roster situation.

Like it's basically the same roster except for without Jaylen Brunson. And last year with Jaylen Brunson, they were three wins away from the finals, and the role players fell apart in that series. Luca also didn't play very well, but those things are intricately related to each other. My point there is, it's clearly a roster issue, and everyone's jumping down Luca. And the thing is, is like, I get it as it pertains to his play style and how aesthetically it can be not the most attractive style. of basketball. We used to say, you know, I say we, basketball media used to say a lot of similar

things about LeBron in the Spurs in like the 2013, 2014 range. It was like the Spurs were playing the beautiful game. And then the Miami Heat was like really good defense in LeBron James creating everything. And a lot of like basketball fans would talk about how, you know, they preferred the player movement, they preferred the ball movement. And we've also heard it, we've heard that with James Hardin over the years, we've heard that with Try Young over the years, we've heard that with Luca Dantzich over the years. And Luca just gets lumped in with Trey and James Hardin as those like heliocentric, ugly style of play players.

But he's so much better than them with his versatility offensively, which is why he actually goes up a level in the playoffs rather than, you know, declining like most players have, like Trey Young has like James Hardin has. And so I don't, like, good. If you want to talk about how you don't like the way Luca Dantzich plays, that's fine. but the actual impact, you can't overlook that. That's unassailable. Luca Donchich is a proven playoff performer, and he's in his early 20s.

Like, where was LeBron at 23, 24? You know, where was Michael Jordan at 2324? I don't think he's discussed fairly, and this is going to be a crap season because the Mavs are going to suck, and everyone's going to use it as an opportunity to act as though Luca Dantzich doesn't play the right way. And then watch what happens at 27, 28. he'll be playing on some team with a legit co-star. You know, the legit co-stars that every other NBA champion

and NBA history has had. You know, like Kauai Leonard doing it with Pascal Seacom and that ridiculous team or, you know, Janice doing it with Chris Middleton and Drew Holiday, or LeBron doing it with Anthony Davis or Steph doing it with Kevin Durant. Everyone's playing with great players, and yet you're judging Luca for losing games with Spencer Dinwiddie

and off the streets Kembo Walker coming in to try to save their offense. I don't think that's fair. Should he be the MVP? No, but that's why I have him down at five. But let's cut him some slack for what's happening with the Maverick. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle. with Greg. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clivert Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics

from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of ton-tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to bowl your mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, moving on, defensive player of the year. So this is going to ruffle some feathers, but hear me out. I think Anthony Davis is the clear choice for defense player of the year at this point.

So obviously the Lakers as a team have underperformed, but their defense has been excellent. in defensive rating and their second and half court defense. Anthony Davis is fourth in the league in blocks. He's the only player in the entire NBA averaging over one and a half steals and one and half blocks. And the big difference between him and the other guys we're going to talk about on this list, which I won't reveal at this exact moment in time. But the biggest difference between him and the other two guys that I have in this list is Anthony Davis is not just a rim protector. He's also an outstanding interior defender as it pertains to defending passes.

He keeps his hands high and low to disrupt pocket passes, to disrupt kickout passes, to disrupt drop-off passes to the dunker spot or things along those lines, which is why he's the only player in the league that's averaging over one and a half steals and one and a half blocks. It kickstarts everything the Lakers do in transition, and he leads the entire league in rebounding. So he's finishing defensive possessions for the Lakers at an astounding rate, which is a big part of defense. If you can't finish the defensive possession, you have to play defense again.

Rebounding is part of defense. So Anthony Davis, especially when you look at the supporting cast, he's not being flanked by Yannas Antenna Coupot and Drew Holiday. Sorry, like he's got LeBron James, who, yeah, when he tries hard like he did on Wednesday, is an above-average defender. In fact, a good defender when he tries hard. But then on Monday night, he was an absolute disaster and gave really poor effort, and it arguably cost his team the win.

right? So like the Lakers are playing with an average defensive supporting cast at best, and Anthony Davis is just about single-handedly anchoring them as the seventh best defense in the NBA and the second best half-court defense in the NBA. It's just him in a bunch of veteran minimum contracts and a LeBron James that only plays hard when he feels like it, so on the defense event. AD makes it all work, and to me he's the clear-cut defensive player of the year. If you were, let's say a Brooke Lopez fan and you were griping with this specific take, the big thing that you would hone in on is AD's transition defense. The Lakers have the worst transition defense in the league,

and Anthony Davis has been one of the culprits for that, although he's been better in the last couple of weeks. Number two, I have Brooke Lopez. So he is the rim protector in the Bucks drop coverage scheme, and he is protecting the hell out of the rim. He is averaging 2.9 blocks per game, which is second in the league. and the Bucks have the best paint defense in the league. They're allowing just 44 and a half points in the paint per 100 possessions,

which like I said is first place in the league. He's doing an incredible job. I don't want to undercut that, but guys, just let's be honest. Like playing defense at the rim next to Janice Antenacumpo, who is the best defensive player in the world, in my opinion. He's just saving resources for his job over the course of the season. And Drew Holliday, who is one of the top six or seven defensive players in the entire world, it's just a different level of work than LeBron James cleaning up for Lonnie Walker,

who's been a career bad defensive player, right? You know, guys that are old and past their prime like Russell Westbrook and LeBron James and a bunch of veteran minimum guys. It's just a different level of challenge that Anthony Davis has, and he has turned them into a good defense in spite of all of that. Number three, I have Joe L. Embed. He's also been one of the best defensive anchors in the league this year. He just hasn't played often enough.

I think he's only played in 14 games this year because of In Inchevue. injuries. Among players who are playing at least 34 minutes per game, no player in the entire NBA has posted a better defensive rating than Joel Embed at 103.7, which is two points better than second place. If he could play 65 plus games, he does have an outside chance of getting this award. All right, rookie of the year. Number one, I have Palo Bunkero. He's already an incredibly gifted NBA score. He's averaging 23 points on 55% true shooting. He's also scoring 0.98 points per isolation, which is slightly above average, which is really impressive for essentially a teenager. He's scoring 1.21 points per post up, though,

which is in the 91st percentile counting passes. So he's, when we talked to, I did a breakdown to Palo Boncaro like two weeks ago, but it's like his ability to use hesitation dribbles to get defenders out of position because he has a decent pull-up jump shot, although that's his biggest area of opportunity right now. But then he's so big and strong. He's so big and strong. It's insane. For a guy his age, a rookie, to have a combination of strength, size, and skill that is already causing problems

for the vast majority of NBA defenders is super impressive. And like, he waits to have little gaps appear, and then he plays a super physical brand of basketball. He'll hit that gap with his right shoulder and just punch through with strength and go all the way to the rim. He's really gifted in the post going over both shoulders,

and he passes surprisingly well for a young player as well. Number two, and number two, I have Jaden Ivy. and number three, I have Ben Matherin. Their numbers aren't that far apart. Ben's actually been a little bit better statistically, but I just think Jaden Ivey's a better player. His role is a lot different. The Detroit Pistons are actually having him create a lot more,

whereas Ben Matherin's in more of a play-finishing type of role with Indiana. And if you actually look at their self-creation numbers, IVs are way better. So in pick and roll, including passes, Jaden Ivey's given you 0.9 points per possession. Ben Matherin's given you 0.66. That's a pretty significant gap. That's like average for Ivy to bad for Ben Matherin.

In ISO, Jaden Ivy is giving you 0.89. Matherin's given you 0.8. So, you know, shout out to Ben Matherin. We talked about him a lot on Monday or Wednesday when we talked about the Pacers. He's been a lot better than I expected him to be, especially as a jump shooter. But I just think Ivy's a better player for now. And I think Ivy has more like high-end superstar potential as well. All right, last but not least, before we get out of here tonight,

most improved player. So I have Lori Markinen at number one. I know there's been a lot of hype around Bull Bull, and we're going to talk about him in a second, but I think Lori Markinen deserves the award through one-fourth of the season, obviously. He's averaging a career high, 22 points and nine rebounds. He's shooting a career-high, 65% true shooting percentage.

He's taking 191 jump shots this year for 228 points, which is in the 85th percentile. He's also shooting 42% off the dribble, which is kind of a new part of his game. he's scoring efficiently out of the post and out of ISO, and he's been really solid in crunch time as well. He's been one of the highest scores this season. I think he's like 13th in the entire NBA

when the game is within five points with less than five minutes left. He went from inconsistent role player to legitimate foundational piece for a franchise in one summer, which to me is what deserves the award. Now, kind of similar to the MVP thing, there's a bunch of different interpretations of this rule. because like Bo Bo Bo Bo, the actual gap between what Bobo was and now is bigger, but I prefer to reward players who go from role player to star than players who go from end of the bench to role player.

I just think that's what the award specifically should be targeting. I did have Bull Bull Bull at second. He averaged 2.7 points per game for his career in three seasons in Denver, and now he's averaging 13.1 points per game with the Orlando Magic on 67% true. shooting and with some good jump shooting in there as well. And more importantly, he's actually been pretty productive for the magic on the scoreboard. His net rating, meaning the point differential per 100 possessions, is fourth on the team among rotation players. He's got a really good handle for his size. That's the big thing that stands out to me when I was watching film this morning. He also plays

relatively well in the physicality for being a really thin player. Kind of reminds me of KD a little bit where like even though he is thin, by being the physical aggressor, he gets himself through those physical scenarios pretty well. I just think, you know, and this is where, because as is always the case when stuff like this happens, we all go off the rails. And, you know, I saw Stefan Marbury. And Stefan Marbury famously says all sorts of crazy stuff. But Stefan Marbury is like, oh, he's going to be a top tier star in the next two years.

Okay, let's slow down a little bit, you know. Everyone was talking about, you know, why is Victor Wembeyanama getting all this attention when Bull Bull is doing all the same things. No, he's not. Okay, like, let's, let's calm down. I really enjoyed watching that film on Bull Bowl this morning. He has absolutely taken a significant leap. It's good to see him getting a legit green light and an opportunity to actually show what he can do without fear of making mistakes. I'm on board just like everyone else is, but let's slow down a little bit. I do not think that he has enough fluidity, um, especially going from handle to jumper. to be a top-tier superstar or even really anything close to that.

And, you know, the other thing, too, is, like, Victor Wimaniama, you can see the difference. Like, just go look at, like, five or six pull-up jump shots from Bull-Bull. And then go look at five or six pull-up jump shots from Victor Wembenyama. Boe-Bull looks like a big man who's shooting a pull-up jump shot. Victor Wembe Nama looks like a two-guard. He's got an incredibly fluid and quick and confident release, which is the difference. Like, for instance, Bull-Bull-Bull is only taking two- threes per game this year. Victor Wemagnama is going to attempt seven threes per game as a rookie in all likelihood.

He's going to be a high volume three-point shooter because of the fluidity and quickness of his release. And then again, you want to know why there's more hype around Victor Wemann Yama? He's an 18-year-old dude who's not in the league yet. And Bull-Bull is a 23-year-old who's in his fourth NBA season. Like it's totally different prospects in terms of future development for both of those two guys. So let's just enjoy Bull-Bow's game like normal people and not make out Adigious comparisons. And then the last guy I wanted to shout out on the most improved player I put third on

my list was Anthony Simons. He's up from last, so last year he had averaged a career high, 17 points per game. This year he's bumped that up to 24 points per game. And most importantly, he's actually generating a lot of quality shots. He's turned himself into a legit NBA shot creator. The Blazers have scored 314 points on 306 of his pick and rolls, which is in the 69th percentile. He's also run 90 ISOs for 96.

points, which is in the 73rd percentile. You could actually make the case that Anthony Simons is, like, legitimately better than C.J. McCollum at this point. So, yeah, only a quarter of the way through the season. A lot can change. We'll probably touch base on this again here in about a month and a half. But that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate your guys to support.

The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman helped make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host care games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit are armored? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with.

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