The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - NBA Contender Rankings: Nuggets & Celtics top list, Clippers elite, Bucks dangerous

Episode Date: February 21, 2024

Jason Timpf is joined by The Athletic's Sam Vecenie to break down the NBA's top contenders post All-Star break. The guys discuss why Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are once again the team to beat, whether Jayson Tatum's Boston Celtics or Kawhi Leonard's Los Angeles Clippers should be considered the No. 2 contender, and if Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and the Milwaukee Bucks will "figure it out" before the NBA Playoffs begin. #volume #herd  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Ever since I got into an argument with Sam on the phone the other day, Sam Vassini from the athletic, covers the NBA, good friend of mine, a person who's been very important to me as I've been beginning this journey into this industry, someone who's more of a grizzled vet who can help guide me along the way. But in addition to that is also one of the smartest basketball minds that I talked to, someone that I learned from every single time we talk. And we were talking the other day. We got into an argument about who would win a playoff series between the Thunder and the Lakers if it started tomorrow.

And it was passionate. It was heated. And finally, we were like, dude, we just got to get on a podcast. And we got to hash out all the contenders. And also, I kind of view this stretch right after the All-Star break as the kind of like the halfway point, not in the regular season, but kind of between where we start in training camp to someone hoisting the trophy in June. And so I thought today would be the perfect time for us to really take a closer look at our list of contenders.

And so without any further ado, Sam, how are you, man? It's good to see you. How's your year going cover in the league? It's great, man. I'm super happy to be here. As you know, I think the world of you. I would recommend everybody listening to this to subscribe to this channel. I don't really listen to other basketball podcasts, watch other basketball content.

Jason is like one of like one or two that I actually watch and listen to and view because I love his perspective on all of this. So I really would recommend everybody watching this. Subscribe to Jason's channel. He's the best. You're too kind. Without any further ado, though, let's get into the basketball. So, you know, I would argue this is an interesting season in the sense that like there's very clearly a top tier or tiers. of teams. However, you could like legitimately sit down as a fan of almost half the league and be like,

we got a shot at this thing. And so we made our lists. And if I'm not mistaken, you told me you had 14 teams that made your list, correct? I did. By the time I got to the end of it, it was like kind of loose and, you know, amorphous. I wasn't, I think there are fewer teams that have a chance to win the title than 14, but yeah. I had 13. Before, before we go into our actual list, though. I have four teams that have won at least 31 games, but that I think have no shot to win

the title. So I'll go one at a time through me. You tell me if you agree. I said the Cleveland Cavaliers have no shot to win the title. Where do I have the Cavs? I think the Cavs a little bit higher than that. I think I'm at 12. So a little bit higher, but not terribly far off. I think

that like structurally it's a little bit too easy to take advantage of their deficiencies. I am interested to see if the Max Struce edition helps to at least minimize some of the issues that New York presented them in the playoffs last year. But I think that at the end of the day, the Mobley Allen combination is going to be really, really difficult to manage in the playoffs for the Cavs. I think there are too many schematic disadvantages. And I really worry about the defensive side as well. Even though they've been elite defensively, I do worry that you can really take advantage of the

Garland Mitchell backcourt in a real way. Donovan Mitchell's defensive season this year has been really impressive to me. And it's made me like a little bit less concerned about the back court long term than I was. Like the only universe in which a Garland Mitchell backcourt would have worked long term, in my opinion, would have involved Donovan becoming a not just a plus defender, but a good defender. And I think he's been a good defender this year. I think Dean Wade and some of the two way play that he's brought to this,

uh, to the wing forward position has been super valuable. but again, everything to me comes down to the Mobley Allen front court. And I thought people kind of got off the scent a little bit last year with the focus on shooting. Not that shooting isn't an important element to this team's ability to have success in pick and roll and stop teams from guarding it three on two. But to me, it has more to do with Evan Mobley's offensive development and the simple fact that especially in the short role, he's just not very good. I've advocated even for swapping it and just having Jared Allen run the short roles

and having Evan Mowbly kind of operate more of the Dunker's spot to try to mix it up. But the bottom line is, is like when you start to really get, to me, the Cleveland Cavaliers are an extremely well-coached team that plays extremely hard, that thrives in these middle portions of the season when effort and energy kind of waxes and wanes more for other teams. And so I think they're nowhere near as good as their record. And I gave them no chance. My second one was the New Orleans Pelicans.

I don't think they have a real chance to win the title. What do you think? I agree with you. They were like 14, 15 on my list, like in that back end of the amorphous list. I had them with a lower chance than the calves. The calves at least play hard. And I can see, I'm not saying the Pelicans don't, but like I can see the calves like at least winning a playoff series. Maybe if they get a super advantageous matchup in the second round, maybe they can get past that.

The Pelicans, I really have enjoyed Brandon Ingram in the playoffs generally. I think his game translates well there weirdly. but it's still the combination of Brandon Ingram and Zion. They've been running these like point Zion combinations from time to time that I think have been somewhat effective. But I still don't love the fit between the two of those guys. I still think they haven't figured out how to elevate each other in a way that makes them better than what their singular skills are. And this team just frankly is not talented enough compared to the top teams in the league. That's the reality.

And it's going to be difficult for them, I think, to come up with lineup combinations in the front court, in the back court, in ways that allow you to defend and score in the playoffs. They're a team filled with one-way players right now is the biggest issue. Yeah, specifically in the front court. And like that, that's death in the NBA playoffs. To me, they're like a worse version of the clippers. They're a team that has a lot of length on the perimeter. They've got a lot of guys like that you think.

think of as, you know, driving kick guys that can, but that on the other end can also compete on the perimeter. Like, we've seen the Pelicans beat really good teams before, where they lock in on the perimeter and they're driving kicking you to death on the other end of the floor. And specifically, like using Zion a lot, but Zion's been playing a lot better as of late, getting guys like C.J. McCollum attacking closeouts more rather than constantly operating and pick and roll. I've seen a lot of good from them.

but to me, like there's not, there isn't this one big draw. It's like, do I think they defend at a championship level? No, I don't. I don't think they're good enough in the front court. Do I think that they have a superstar offensive player that can truly, just for four straight rounds, just be a surgeon in the half court? No, I don't think they have that type of player. Do I think they have an absurd depth of talent that can overcome a lot of these issues?

No, I don't. So, like, they don't have like that ace in the hole. There are a lot of bad, or not bad teams, but flawed teams that we're going to hit today. where it's like they have this ace in the hole. Like it's the bucks, it's Damon yannis. If it's the Lakers, it's LeBron James and Anthony.

They just don't have that like one singular like transformatively great thing that they do. That kind of sets them apart. The third team I put on this list was the Sacramento Kings. What about you? Yeah, I mean, they just aren't going to be able to defend at a level commensurate with winning a title, in my opinion.

I loved their series against the Warriors last year. I thought that they really proved that, their style of play has a better chance to hold up under like realistic scrutiny and in terms of like a coach adjusting against what they're trying to present to the opposing team. But again, like they just haven't fixed the defensive issue. And for as good as DeMontosabonis has been this season for as incredible as the combination between he and Deerrin Fox has been, I really need to see it from them in the playoffs at the end of the day before I trust them.

That feels like, you know, TV talking point-ish, but the way that Kavana Luni was able to minimize his impact on that series last year really kind of sticks in my head in a negative way. It's the same with the Cavs. Like, Jared Allen got his ass kicked last year by Mitchell Robinson in that playoff series. And Jared Allen is probably one of the most underrated players in the NBA at this point during regular season competition. He's a huge part of why they've been successful.

It's kind of the same with. the kings. Like I thought that Kavana Luni, marginally, compared to what their commensurate values are to their team, you know, Duma's supposed played better than Kavon Luni did in that series. But I thought Kavana got the better of him compared to what they needed from each of those players in that series. So it's hard for me to get that out of my mind. And it's hard for me to imagine they're going to defend it a level high enough to win. That dropping the right shoulder and getting to that lefty hook, especially on the rolls to the rim when he kind of catches and takes that power dribble. They're just, he just inevitably runs into a guy who's big and strong enough to kind of withstand that.

And then he's a below the rim player at that point. You know, it's funny because we've seen this a lot in the NBA history where like Kevin Love was this really good post-up fulcrum, pick and pop fulcrum in the regular season. And then he'd get to the postseason and he'd get his butt kicked by a big strong forward. Or like Julius Randall's kind of this kind of guy too. Like that big forward who's not really exceptionally athletically gifted, but that relies on a lot of bully ball, but isn't necessarily the best touch or that kind of guy can sometimes struggle when they run into super physical environments. And I tend to agree,

like, what's funny, you look at the Kings, I was pulling these numbers the other day. When they defend, they win. That's the crazy part. Like, when they, when they defend, they win. And when they don't, they're not good enough offensively, they're not good enough offensively to just simply outscore teams. And that, that has ended up being the issue more often than not. Like, like, they'll have a night like they did against the nuggets the other night where they can really defend. And they have perimeter talent to actually, they have enough speed on the perimeter to actually be pretty good in rotation and to be pretty good at the point of attack when they want to be. But it's just never been a consistent. And it's, it's crazy too

with Mike Brown as the coach that that hasn't become more of an identity for them in the long run. The last team I had on this list was the Indiana Pacers. I love Tyrese Halliburton. He's legitimately, in my opinion, like a transcendently great offensive player. I think some of his recent struggles are more just classic soft tissue stuff. Like you come back from a hammy, you don't really take that aggressive step like you normally do. Like I think I tend to think that he's on that trajectory to be the next like truly great offensive engine.

And I think the Seacom fit is beautiful there. Love everything about it. I just, I just think within the scope of this season, they're not physically imposing enough or good enough in any unit to win the title. What do you think? Yeah, the Halliburton injury, I hope that he's used. this little week that he's going to get.

I know that he had so many events that he had to do at All Star this weekend being like the hometown hero basically. Like it felt like he did everything he could to get himself out there. Like probably did not get the rest that his body necessarily needed. Hopefully he'll get like just days off of physical activity in some way that allows that hamstring to recover a little bit. I agree with you in terms of the soft tissue thing. He just hasn't quite been there.

But I believe in him in big moments as we saw during the in season tournament. I think that super skill, super decision making, great shooting, those skills translate to the highest level. And I think that he'll be great in those settings in the playoffs. I do worry a little bit about just for this season, not long term, this season, the synergy between he and Seacom and trying to figure out the ways to make their defense at the highest level it possibly can be with Seaccom and Turner in the front court. that synergy is just missing a little bit right now. Maybe they can get it there by the time that April rolls around. I don't know that they would be like a zero percent chance to meet just in case the Seacom Turner thing turns into being able to hold up their defense on their shoulders

in a substantial way. But I think you're safe to keep them out of this conversation just for now. I do think though that there are some interesting skills. advantage is that they can create both in the half court and with their transition opportunities in the full court. I have a follow up for you because you're way more connected than me around the league. What are you hearing about the Pacers in their long-term vision for these surrounding players around Halliburton and Seacom?

So for instance, like do they view Ben Matherin and like an Aaron Neesmith is good enough at the two and three? Do they view Miles Turner as their long-term solution at center? or like where are they at as a team building as far as team building goes? Yeah. So I haven't heard a crazy amount about the surrounding pieces. I know that they are very excited about Pascal Seaccom and the ability to pair him with Tyrese Halliburton long term.

I know that they love the fit of Miles Turner with Pascal Seaccom. Part of what the Raptor struggled with spacing wise is that Seaccombe, you know, up until this season with that little stretch he had before he got moved, hadn't really shot the ball well at all for the previous four years that he'd been there. That led to him being in the midpost and Yacca Purdle being willing to like short roll into that middle like area at the foul line extended, right? And then you have Scotty Barnes who loves to operate in that area as well. And it led to a condensed, difficult court to deal with with Miles Turner who can go out

and space the floor in a semi real way. Like teams don't ignore him out there. They tend to at least try to get a late close out on him when he, shoots threes and pick and pops and when he spaces to the corner, I think that they can really operate in an intriguing way using Pascal Seacum, Tyrese Halliburton, you know, one four ball screens. The thing though that I think they're going to miss for this season particularly, and this feeds into the idea of their kind of pieces around these guys, Buddy Heald was a sneaky, really important thing for them just schematically. He didn't have his best season this year,

whatever reason. But the way that they would utilize him and the gravity that he possessed around the court for the Pacers, I mean, Tyree's Halliburton, like he said this as soon as they moved him, he's played basically every game of his career up until, you know, the trade deadline with Buddy Heald on the court. And the level of spacing that Heald creates because you have to stay attached to him at all times across the court is so essential. It is so, so dangerous for an opposing team.

It's why I love the buddy Heald. acquisition for the Philadelphia 76ers. We'll talk about that when we get to the 76ers maybe, but I wonder if we get some diminishing returns more than what people expect by the Pacers moving healed. And maybe that might be the best case for you thinking that they're a no chance team. The fact that they moved a guy that is actually like a really important schematic cog for them in the playoffs, the fact they moved him is really going to hinder what they do.

But long term, I think Mathuron, They really like Ben Matherin. They really like Jarris Walker. They actually really, really like Andrew Nemhart as well. I mean, I'm not going to sit here and say that like they think Nemhard is a long-term starter necessarily,

but they love having Nemhart as like you're either your fifth man out on the court, your sixth man, something like that, a guy that takes on tougher defensive assignments from time to time, makes great decisions, can shoot it a little bit. They like a lot of their younger pieces. And I think they'll be aggressive trying to go out and get the final,

piece next to their Halliburton, Seacom, Turner, core, but beyond that, I think it remains to be seen where they'll go. The big piece of the Seacum deal, though, is that they didn't move any of Matherin, Jaris Walker, Andrew Nemhardt, and thus they still have

assets to move in order to fill out that roster around them. Yeah, the Buddy Heel piece is interesting because that's actually one of their biggest pet actions. The two actions they run most frequently are Halliburton Turner pick and pop and then basically a ghost screen with Buddy Heelts. healed, which screws everybody up because they can't figure out how to guard that specific action.

I do understand it from the big picture of like a big picture you can't have a Halliburton healed back court. You just can't. Like, there's not enough that you're not good enough defensively, in my opinion, at the point of attack in terms of a big picture goal for that type of situation. Ideally, you're hoping for a guy like Ben Matherin to kind of develop into a better defender than he has been and he's been really bad. But anyway, we spent enough time on these lower level teams. I just, I wanted to kind of get that flushed out just for from the same point of the way we kind of constructed our lists. The way this, the way that I'm going to do it and who knows how the hell this will go. So we're just going to, we're just going to try it and see what happens.

I have my list and I'm going to go through one at a time. Sam's going to tell me whether or not he agrees. And if he disagrees, he's going to tell me whether or not that team should be higher or lower and he'll give the case for why. My first tier is bona fide traditional top tier contenders. These are teams that, in my opinion, check all of the boxes that you hope to have checked for a team that typically will go on to win the title. Number one, I have the Denver Nuggets. I think they're by far the best combination of half court offense and defense that we

no translates to the playoff setting. Their record is not as bad as it looks when you factor in how much time Jamal Murray has missed. As a matter of fact, they're 28 and 12 when Jamal Murray has played. That's a 70% win percentage. That's basically what the Minnesota Timberwolves have been. They've definitely had some kind of like flat efforts this year where they've gone out and just been blitzed for whatever reason.

But that to me is kind of a typical part of being the target on your back defending champ type of type of situation. The bench is an issue, but it was an issue last year. Like they were around 11 points negative net with Yokic off the floor last year. They're around 11 points negative net without Yokic this year, according to cleaning the glass. So like I think hyper focusing on that misses the point that it was literally a non-issue in the postseason last year. They just scaled the minutes up and they were so dominant that they never ended up being an

issue. So to me, I'll actually place it a little bit more aggressively. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for Raw, Untebrough. filtered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So,

if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.

I'm Sam Jek. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick you here, unpack what we. went down and tried to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack,

so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. If the Nuggets starting five is healthy, I would be surprised if they didn't win the title.

That's how confident I am in this team. So I'm curious, even if you have the Nuggets at one, you could at least tell me if you don't view them as strongly as I do. I do have the Nuggets at one. I think they are the clear favorite right now to win the title. We'll talk about, I think, the team that maybe both of us will have next or in the, you know, top three. I would have this team in the top tier with the Nuggets as well. The Nuggets so far have played a top 10, shrink the schedule. They've played a tougher schedule than any of the other Timberwolves, Clippers, Thunder as well.

they've played a tougher schedule than any of those teams. So when you look at the record, plus they've had the Murray injury, I'm not concerned about what their record looks like right now. I think they're going to be 100% fine once the playoffs hit. My only concern for Denver is they didn't make a real move at the deadline, obviously. And this team still just not have amazing depth. If somebody was to go down, if a, even like if a Contavia is called Well Pope or an Aaron Gordon goes down, I do worry a little bit about, you know, elevating somebody like Christian Brown or Peyton Watson into the starting lineup and then having to replace those, you know, let's call it like 20 minutes that one of those to provide with somebody like deep on their bench that I really would have like concerns about in a playoff setting.

So that I think is the one point of contention. But if we're starting to get into concerns about that, that's the sign of an elite team, a truly fantastic basketball team. They have the best player in the world. In Nicola Yokic, they have constructed a roster. Calvin Booth has done a fantastic job, building an organization that fits around their best player to the nth degree. He elevates everybody. They elevate themselves beyond what they're capable of.

I think, Jamal Murray, when he's been on the quarterback. this season has been outstanding and was all-star quality. So I have no real concerns about the Denver Nuggets outside of potentially, even if one of their starting quality non-star players gets hurt, what does that look like in terms of their lineup flexibility in the playoffs? So I 100% agree for the record. I've actually done rants on my show before about how I think it's like, to Calvin Booth's credit, I can't think of a.

lineup, you probably have to go back to like the 2014 spurs to find a lineup that has a larger gap between like the individual reputations of all five players kind of combined versus the basketball effectiveness of their five together. Like to put it simply like the some the their actual tangible greatness so far supersedes the sum of their parts. And it to his credit, he just constructed, in my opinion, a perfectly complimentary starting five. Now, the counter to that would be, because I agree, you take KCP out of the equation,

you take your best guard defender out of the equation, at least out of the starting group, and a very, very, very important spacing guy, second side action guy. CCP's always been one of my favorite transition guards in the league too. Aaron Gordon, just the job he did on Kevin Durant and on LeBron James, like even going on to Jimmy Butler. like he was just incredibly important on the defensive end of the floor anchoring them last year.

Like I 100% agree with you. Here's the thing. If the Celtics lost Khrostops Porzingis, what would you say? They fundamentally become a significantly lesser team. If they lost Derek White, they fundamentally become a significantly lesser team. Like go to the the Timberwolves. It's like if they lose Jaden McDaniels, fundamentally lesser team. Mike Conley is so important to them in their half court execution, fundamentally lesser team.

The Clippers, you take any of their core guys. Terrence Mann out, all of a sudden it's a whole lot more Norman Powell and Russell Westbrook. You take, you know, Paul George out, you take James Harden out, you get the point. So like, I do think that even though I agree with you, that I don't think the Nugget starting five can withstand an injury really to anybody in that group. I suppose if you had to pick one, it'd probably be Michael Porter Jr., right, and then Peyton Watson slides into that spot. But even then, like that he's such an important part fundamentally of guarding actions

two on two versus three on two against Denver. Like you just have a better chance. Peyton Watson, he's gotten good at that slot cut out of the weak side wing and moving along the baseline. Like he's learned how to play off the ball, but he just isn't the same level of, like, Michael Porter Jr. is one of the best off ball players in the entire league. So like he's even a very good offensive rebounder. Like I, to me, to me, all five of those guys are a vital importance.

And so yeah, like I, I agree that they have a lack of depth, but I just don't think that that necessarily, I just think it's unfair to nitpick that without necessarily pointing out that the same exists for any of these other teams. So I think the perfect way to transition this here is to go to my number two, which is the Boston Celtics. And I guess let's start with this. Like, I think a Celtics Nuggets finals is pretty likely. I think it's pretty likely. So in that match. I think I'm higher on one team like than you are.

I'm interested to do this. The Clippers? I'm higher on the Clippers than I think you are. I had the Clippers at number three. And let's hit the Clippers. See, like I think the Clippers, I think the Clippers can lose one of Norman Powell or Terrence Man.

There is somebody like that. They can't lose Zubots because Zubots is like the real size guy. I think they can lose one of those guys and still be okay. Terence Man takes their primary point of attack assignments and puts these long athletes off the ball. I find it.

And then it just like all of a sudden, it's like 15 more minutes of Russell Westbrook every single night too, which is, which is terrifying to me a little bit. I, okay, let's, let's hit the clippers. Let's do the Celtics first.

All right, let's do the Celtics first. Yeah, and we'll get there. Let me just, let me just start by asking you a question. Why are the Boston Celtics 27th and paint points scored per game? Why?

Why? Why do they do that? Why are they third in pull-up jumpers, taken. Why are they, why do they take the most reason? Like, why are they as athletically gifted as they are so perimeter oriented? Can you explain that to me? Well, honestly, so like they are athletically gifted, but a lot of their players are not like perimeter paint touch guys, right?

Jason Tatum has never been a super high end. Like, I'm going to go get paint touches, driving kick. I'm going to go get paint touches. Like, he's a, you know, if I'm going to get the ball, I might get a post up. and try to bully somebody in a mismatch onto the block, but I'm probably going to pull up more than I'm going to try and get all the way to the rim that way. Jalen Brown can be a real paint touch guy. I would say he's their one, but like Drew Holiday is 33, 34 years old at this point. Hasn't really been that guy the last couple of years.

Derek White has never been like a super high end paint touch guy. Christopps Borzingis has always been a perimeter big. It kind of does line up to me in terms of that, but I also can see why this would be a concern because we've seen, you know, in general, the last couple of years under Joe Missoula, their late game offense has been a slog from time to time.

The ability to get a paint touch is a real combo breaker, a counterbreaker, which is why we'll talk about the thunder. And this is what people I think are waiting for after your intro, why I do like the thunder in some way with their late game offense to be able to consistently get interesting. looks. The Celtics have struggled to consistently get interesting looks. The Timberwolves this year, another team that has struggled to consistently get good looks around the rim, certainly

from different scenarios in late game situations. So that would be my one concern with Boston. Can they consistently find late game offense that works for them? We need to also call it out, too. This is a truly elite offense. I mean, they have like a 122 offensive rating right now. They are elite on that end because Jason Tatum is incredible. Jason Tatum's pull-up game has really shifted over the course of, I would say what, the last month and a half or so. He's been outstanding knocking down pull-up threes. I think he's at like 39% since like the start of January, something like that with pull-up threes.

That really transforms their potential on offense in late game situations. having the spacing of Christopps Porzingis has totally transformed everything that they can do on the offensive end. In addition to being able to play big with Porzingis and Al Horford and be able to guard a lot of different things, stay big on defense while having five out spacing, which is so important to what they want to do. Yeah, look, I love the Celtics. I think they've been fantastic this season. I would have them, you know, number two, number three. I basically have them like 2A right now with the team we're going to talk about momentarily here.

they defend at the point of attack at a super high level. They can play big. They're flexible lineup wise. Again, they're just not that deep and probably can't withstand much in terms of injuries. But yeah, the Celtics are in elite team and they are clearly the favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference right now. Yeah,

I'm kind of trolling a little bit there with the way I presented you that question. I think a lot of people, Galaxy Burying the Celtics a little bit with the standpoint. It's like, well, watch this. You know, they're clearly bad at this. And it's like, well,

they're fucking awesome at everything else. You know, like it does. 100%. definitely galaxy brain them a little bit. I love the fact that they have so much depth at very specifically important skill sets. Like they have a depth of perimeter defenders at the guard position. They have a depth of perimeter defenders at the wing position.

They've got a legitimate shot blocker in Christop's Porzengis. They've got a guy in Al Horford that can guard some of the bigger post players in the league and usually tends to cause problems for them. You know, they've got guys that can beat missing. mismatches out of the post. They've got guys that can beat mismatches out of ISO. They can play driving kick basketball. The thing, the big thing that I'm going to be watching with them down the stretch of the season, because, like, they have like an incredibly easy schedule down the stretch. They're pretty tough here for the next few weeks and then it lightens up basically the rest of the

way. They are already six games up on the rest of the Eastern Conference. They're four games up on Minnesota for the number one overall seed. They have some slush here to like really treat the last 20-something games as almost. like a as almost like a testing ground for a lot of stuff. I'd like to see them work on essentially, I don't know if it needs to be a different offensive configuration entirely or just an approach. But like to me, they are, because they, their offense is not just legitimate.

It's been, it's been really good regardless of matchup. They've also been one of the very best offenses in the league against top 10 defenses. They have had no issue scoring the basketball. in the large sample. But they have had issues scoring the basketball in the small sample. What I mean by that is

they've had games where they go broke and they look like shit. And a big part of it, and like just recently in this last month, it's like the Clippers game. It's the Nuggets game. It's like these big high profile games

where it just seems like none of the shots can fall. And so my, by the way, I love that you didn't mention the Lakers game. Because that's the obvious one that came to mind for me. You know what's funny. though, like, I don't even look at the Lakers as one of those top teams anymore. So it's like, I know, I've become such a defeatist about them.

But we'll see. But the, when it comes to the way that they've configured their offense, like, for instance, like Tatum is shooting the pull-up jump shot better. But he, we're talking like 45% of his shot diet is pull-up jump shots. Like, that's a hefty chunk of his, like, and when you factor in that he's taking a few catch-and-shoot jumpers every game, like more than half of his game is jump-shoots. and this is a guy that I agree with you that that's kind of who he is as a player.

I agree, but this is also one of the most physically gifted forwards we have in the league. I'm saying he needs to change is what I'm saying. I'm saying he needs to tweet that. Or he just needs to be like the best shooter. Or be the best shooter in the league.

Like it needs to be one of the team. Like Kauai Leonard gets away with this. Like Kauai Leonard takes like, you know, what two or three shots at the rim per game and lives off of a diet of mid-range jumpers and occasional three-pointers. and still shoots a billion percent from the field approximately.

So, like, that's, that's the level that Jason Tatum needs to get to. He either needs to be that guy or he needs to be able to get to the rim in the way that. And for the record, I think that that kid, I think Tatum can undergo a little bit of that transition in the sense that, like, what makes Kauai such an outstanding mid-range jump shooter is he uses his strength to get to spots closer to the rim. And whereas, like, Tatum takes highly difficult, like, longer distance pull-up jump shots. And so between the leaning on the pull-up jump shot, between the team-wide leaning on, like, their third in pull-up jump shots as a team.

They lead the league in three-point shots attempted. As I mentioned earlier, they're 27th in points in the paint per game. It has added a huge element of variance to the way they play. And so as a result of that, they are capable of having games. And I know that a lot of the analytics guys disagree with me on this, but I do believe that shooting is contagious. I do believe that, like, when a team. starts missing, it gets in the head of the team. And like everyone starts to kind of get tight and their hands get sweaty.

And like, and I, it's a confidence thing in big moments. 100%. Yeah. And so I do think that stuff matters. And so like, I think the, if the Celtics lose, it'll look like what it looked like in these games we saw in the last month. It'll be a big game, five, game six against a Milwaukee or somebody or the Knicks I'm pretty high on.

We'll talk about in a little bit. or a big game in the finals against the nuggets where it's like or against the clippers or somebody like that where it's like they miss five or six in a row and it's like it almost they almost start to get a little hesitant but they don't have this other punch that they can go to so i just want to see i would love to see over these last 20 something games like just an attempt to add more versatility to the way they attack on offense to me that would go such a long way like what are you going to do in the game when we call a time out and we're down seven in the middle of the third quarter and we just missed five or six threes in a row what are we going to do are we going to sit down to be like hey guys

this is one of those nights we're a little in our heads we're not making these shots how about we you know spam this wedge action to get tatum you know like some low pose touches or or porzingis you know whatever it is you got to do something to just kind of like almost bake in a physical aggression to the the beginning of their offensive possessions because then from there it might color because then you might still get catch and shoot threes, but they'll at least come out of an attempt to get the ball into the paint first. I would just like to see them try. That to me would be a big, like thing. I'm going to be keeping an eye on here down the stretch. Did you have any other thoughts on the Celtics before we move on? I don't, but honestly, like that ability to be multiple

on offense is why I think I'm higher on the clippers than what many people are and why I actually have them in the same tier as the Celtics in the Nuggets right now. Like I think they have a real ability to be multiple on offense and have different ways to beat you in a way that they haven't had previously now. Like we'll talk about the major factor with the clippers here momentarily. But like I'll let you kind of take the lead on where you want to go with that conversation. Get in on the action with Draft King's Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. New customers who deposit $5 or more can get a no sweat bet up to $1,000.

back in a bonus bet. I was looking at NBA futures this morning. The Golden State Warriors are plus 5,500 right now on Draft Kings to win the title. So if you believe in them, that's a big number. And Denver, I have Denver is my championship favorite. And there's still the second best odds on Draft Kings right now at plus 450. So lots of good NBA bets to look at over the course of the end of the season. Download the Draft King Sportsbook app now and use code hoops.

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Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, CliverTaylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told,

and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right what you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross

double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jek. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84's big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. So this next tier I have titled Teams hitting traditional championship benchmarks, but that have playoff question marks. And so that to me is where I have the clippers. the big like question marks I have for the Clippers are kind of similar to some ones that I have for

other teams like they're not a good defensive rebounding team that to me is another kind of like hallmark we're gonna I pulled some stats for you I'm I'm prepped for a thunder argument Sam just wait I I pulled some stats about defensive rebounding in in recent NBA champions and so there's some concerning stuff there they're not a good defensive rebounding team they they are actually a better paint attacking team than you'd think the clippers are actually 15th and points in the paint per 100 possessions. I do think they have more scoring resiliency in the sense that, like, I just think they're a better, like type of,

they play, in my opinion, they take a lot of the same shots that Boston does, although fewer threes, but they're just better at it. They're better at playing that brand of basketball, I think, in terms of like that slow down half court environment. They're top five in both half court offense and defense.

that's usually a big hallmark for a championship contender. There's sixth in clutch net rating. That's another hallmark for a championship contender. And again, like you mentioned, to me, let's just put it this way. Kauai's a better player than Tatum. Would you agree? Yes, yes.

I think Kauai is the player I would take. If we were drafting players for a playoff series right now, I would take Kauai at number two behind you. Really? There's a take. Okay. So for the record, I generally, I'm generally super high in Kauai, too.

a healthy, a healthy Kauai, to be clear. But to your point, Kauai Leonard brings a scoring resiliency to the playoffs that I think is super valuable when we get to this point. I think James Harden, too, like, I think there's less pressure on him in this playoff run than there was last year in the sense that, like, I think this team can kind of withstand a bad James Harden night

in a better way than the Sixers could. So, like, I'm really, really high on the Clippers, too. again, it really just comes down to for me. And again, I'm not even going to talk about healthier. The only thing it really comes down to for me is like they're a bad defensive rebounding team. They do take a lot of pull-up jumpers and we have seen them go cold like they did against Denver in 2020, although it was a long time ago.

Other thing, too, is there a really bad transition defense, but I feel like I'm being kind of nitpicky. You're high on the clippers. Tell us for you. Tell us why, I should say. Okay. So, Kauai Leonard, this season has missed, I believe, five games so far. coming down the stretch last season, I believe he missed.

I think it was like six games in their last 50 games, maybe eight games in their last 50 games, somewhere along those lines. Again, the problem is that he did not stay healthy for the playoffs. I think any conversation, you said you wanted to ignore the health, I'm sorry, but any conversation with the clippers revolves around the health on some level.

In the four years that they have had, Paul George and Kauai Leonard, They are a plus 12 per 100 possessions when Paul George and Kauai Leonard share the court. That is NBA title worthy. That is elite of the elite of the elite. These guys, when they take the court together, the Clippers win games. They are fantastic. To me, I've loved everything that they've seen.

You bring up James Harden. The key is that when he was the point guard and the number two option on the Philadelphia 76ers last season, their primary action was they were going to try and run a one five ball screen with joel and b joel was going to pop into the midrange maybe sometimes it'd be an empty maybe sometimes uh james would be trying to get to his pull-up jumper you know there'd be different machinations of it james does not have to be the primary guy this year james can be a combo breaker for them if for whatever reason they are able to an opposing team is able to shut down paul george and kawai Leonard. You can't really shut down Kauai Leonard at this point in my opinion, but like if a team is able to make his life more difficult, well, not enough teams have three legitimate point of attack defenders with size and with quickness to be able to cause problems for all of these guys, which means you can just go into like one five ball screen with James Hardin and Avitsa Zubots and then have Kauai Leonard, Paul George, and somebody like Norman Powell, who's been elite of the elite of the elite and spot up

situations this season surrounding him. You can play five out and that's going to be able to create all sorts problems that way. And that's like your second or third option, right? They have so many different ways to be able to attack a defense. That's why they have a top three offense in the NBA and why it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of the year they actually have the best offense in the NBA. As long as these guys stay healthy, I think they are the most dangerous offensive team. On top of it, I think Kauai has been better than what we've,

seen in the last couple of years defensively this season, Paul George remains an elite defender who can handle point of attack situations, getting over the top of screens, using his length to disrupt actions that way. You mentioned Terrence Mann can obviously do that. They use him a lot more than they use Paul George in that scenario. But I think Paul, if you get him going in the playoffs, he's going to be able to do that. The only issue, like you said, is the size one. I am with you. I have worries about the fact that Zubots is really their size-based counter. And I actually don't know what their counter is to Zubots right now.

That is my number one worry. What do they do if they have to go small? I actually don't really know what like a small lineup looks like for them, given that PJ Tucker has been like MIA here for the recent while. Do you think they intend to, do you think that was why they didn't buy him out and why they're trying to get him to kind of refocus and come back. Do you think it centers around them wanting to have him as an ace in the hole if they need to use him?

I think, no, I think it's more that they could have his contract as an expiring $10 million. Gotcha. That makes sense. For the off season. But like he still has next year. That was a huge win for Darrell Morey to get off of that deal within the James Hardin trade. But look, I mean, it probably plays like a small role in it, like as a potential option. option, but I think much more it's, you know, have him as a $10 million expiring for the off season when they don't have like a crazy number of contracts they can do.

Like honestly, is their best small lineup, something crazy like James Hardin, Kauai, Paul George, like Powell Man or even like, like, is it like Russ given his like ability to go uptempo and like try and beat opposing teams down the court? Like do you involve him in your best small lineup? they don't have like a great answer. I'd probably go Powell, man. But I have noticed the same thing where like when these clippers go small, it doesn't look the same as it did a few years ago when it was like a Marcus Morris out there.

Or it was a, you know, a Nick Batum where it was just like another 6-8 guy that just kind of added. So at least they were like longer, if that makes sense. But at the same time like Zubach is like, Zubach is on the short list of guys that like you'd love to have for a matchup with Yokic like as well.

So like yeah, I love this clipper. team, I love their character too. They just, they have, they, they, they just give me championship vibes. And that's why I put them in that, that's why I titled that tier like hitting championship benchmarks. Because like, I think there are a lot of teams, especially in the modern NBA, uh, that like, I don't want to say cut corners, but that, that view the regular season is almost unnecessary. And I feel like the NBA does a good job of shooting and spitting those teams out.

primary example of this. Jason, the Clippers were the primary example of this for three years. Like, that's exactly right. They, they have not cut corners this year. It's really important.

Exactly. And I just, I love that the NBA tends to chew up and spit out teams that don't take the regular season seriously. It's one of my favorite, it's one of my favorite things about the league. Like, don't,

don't cheat the game. And the game won't cheat you back. The other team, I only have one other team on this tier. and that is the Minnesota Timberwolves. I absolutely love the combination of like truly physically imposing perimeter defense and rim protection. Specifically, I love the matchup versatility that an aunt and a Jaden McDaniels gives you

in the sense that like Jaden McDaniels brings this like length that is like oppressive. But then aunt brings this like fire hydrant you could never get past me. strength and like handsy physicality on the perimeter. I love that they can like kind of play with those matchups a little bit because like certain offensive players like are really good at shooting over the top and the fire hydrant guys don't really bother them. And then like there are certain offensive players that like are bothered by length more. And so like you can kind of like play with that a little bit.

My main red flag with the Timberwolves is I really have hated their crunch time offense as of late. Yes. And, you know, it's funny because, like, you talk to Timberl's fans and, like, we're a top 10 half-quarter, or we're a good half-court offense. Like, Mike Conley, you know, organizes us and we've, you know, Anthony Edwards is ascending to superstardom. And I buy into all that.

Like, I'm a huge Anthony Edwards guy. I love Mike Conley. But, like, to me, because Mike Conley's not overly aggressive at the end of games, like, generally speaking, it comes down to decision-making from Ant, who's very, very young. And Carl Towns, who's, uh, iffy decision-making. And I think that that ends up being the issue. Now, they dropped a game in crunch time against the Bulls the other night,

or about a week and a half ago where it looked exactly like all the things I'm telling you about. And then they won four straight where they kicked everyone's ass and there wasn't even any crunch time games. And I remember teams used to be concerned about like the Lakers in 2020 and their half court offense and their ability to execute. And then guess what? Their defense was so damn good.

They just, it didn't matter and they were able to win. And so I still think the Timberwolves are very much in that tier of teams that I think have a real chance to win it all. But like, like we mentioned earlier, if I saw them lose, that's what it would look like, I think.

It would come down to half court execution. Where are you at with the Minnesota Timberwolves? Have the same exact concern you do. And it's not just like, like if the Bulls game was a one-off, I would feel better. But they have recently dropped crunch time games to the spurs, the hornets.

I think the magic, if I remember correctly as well. Like teams that, aren't exactly like bastions of late game offensive execution, right? So it almost always, it looks the same. It looks exactly like what you're saying. I really worry about, okay, let's say that they play the clippers or they play the nuggets or somebody like that, right? I still don't totally know what that's going to look like from a half court defensive perspective.

when teams look to specifically attack Rudy Gobert and Carl Towns in mismatched situations in those scenarios. Now, having both of them is really valuable. But like the Clippers, for instance, who does Carl Towns guard on the Clippers in a fully healthy series for those guys? I think you put him on Kauai, right? And basically try to have him handle the bully ball stuff. and like because Kauai's not an overly like quickness based player.

What do you think? But that's, I think, Kauai would cook his ass. But I think that's what you talk yourself into, right? So I think that's my answer. But what I think the clippers would do even more than anything else. I think they would run Kauai off of a betty of off ball actions. By the way, we saw the Pelicans do this by putting Zion on Kau by the way.

Yeah. Yeah. Just like literally make Kat Chase the whole game. And that's going to have diminishing returns. on Kat's offensive game as well because he has to chase and chase and chase. So I am to a lesser extent than like the Cavs, for instance, worried about what schematically the too big foundation looks like in the playoffs, even though it has been tremendously successful defensively this season.

Look, I think Rudy is, Rudy's reputation defensively in the playoffs is probably a little bit overblown in terms of his effectiveness. But again, like that Clippers team like really did show kind of the benchmark for how to cause problems for him when he was playing in Utah, playing five out. If you can play five out, it causes some problems. Now the Clippers don't have the

wherewithal to play five out, uh, as we just discussed, which is valuable. But like, I have the Timberwolves a little bit lower and you're going to like laugh at the team that I have, uh, ahead of the Timberwolves in the West. It's, Let me guess.

We'll get to them once we get to them. Phoenix? No. You're not going to say the Lakers, are you? I'm not going to say the Lakers. I have Phoenix, like, relatively in this tier. I have the Mavs really high, Jason. Oh, my shit, man.

I have the Mavs really high, Jason. Okay. Well, so let's do this. I, for the record, I agree with you with Minnesota. to like they, they're, there's specific configurations I worry about with them because you know what's interesting too. You know what also has been really shitty? Their crunch time defense. Like they, yeah, look, and I want to be clear here for everybody. Like, I feel like I'm playing the role of like nitpicking all this on this podcast, which is fine. Like, and that's the role that like I kind of want to

play a little bit. Um, I have the, I have the Timberwolves in this tier. I have them like a couple slots lower than you, but like I have the Timberwolves in this year. They've had a fantastic season and I'm all for what they've been able to accomplish this season. And I think Anthony Edwards is like a total stud that is probably like a year away. But if it came a year early, I wouldn't be surprised. The key is the decision making, like you said. But sorry, I wanted to get that out there. So my tears, the way I have it set up, I have the, like I said, the bona fide

championship contenders. And then I have the teams that are hitting benchmarks, but have question marks. Obviously the clippers and the Timberwolves. After that, every other team for me is missing the traditional championship benchmarks. that like legitimately like the team like that they're not hitting those like like and we can get in we'll get into the individual teams but I don't have any other teams on that tier but it sounds like you have multiple so before we go any further what teams do you have that are in what you consider to be like that real championship winning a capability tier so like I said at the top realistically I think

there is a 90% chance that the title comes from one of Denver the Clippers or the Zetrics. So I think those are really the three teams. Okay, so that's the end of your top tier. Truly. That's my top tier. Okay.

So I really, I'm including Minnesota and you're not basically. Gotcha. Yeah, exactly. Like I have a bigger second tier. Well, maybe not.

I don't know. But I have a, I'll be interested to hear the way you break out the rest of your tiers. My clear thing is like I think the Nuggets, Clippers and Celtics are a level ahead in terms of playoff basketball, especially if the clippers are held. So,

I agree with you. I just am including Minnesota in there. To me, to me the case for Minnesota is they're just like one of the most physically overwhelming teams in the league. And that tends to be a weapon when you get to the postseason. And like you can't write off to like the what if aunt is just awesome. You know,

that that's always a. No, he really might be. And he shot the pull up jump shot incredibly well in the postseason so far in his career. So and that to me like, you know, people always make fun of Tatum for relying on a ton of pull of jump shots. ants kind of in that camp too.

We're like considering his physical gifts, there's a huge portion of his shot diet that is kind of difficult, which always has been. But yeah, like you can't write out the possibility of him making them. So my next tier is teams that are missing traditional championship benchmarks, but you can see a legitimate pathway to the title for them. And the first team I have on this tier at number five is the Milwaukee Buck.

And it's really this simple. They cannot score the, they cannot score the basketball since Doc Rivers has taken over. It's the craziest thing. Dame Lillard is shot. Yeah, I was going to say, is there missing traditional championship benchmarks, like having Doc Rivers as their basketball coach?

So the traditional benchmarks here are like, one, there's just like a weird funk kind of hanging over the team. That's never like, how many teams win the title when it looks like they're not even sure they're having fun? playing together for large chunks of the season, you know, their defense is not good enough, but they're not transcendently great offensively to make up for it. Like, that was always the case when you're watching Denver last year. It was like, there's like, oh, their defense is kind of

mediocre, but like, hey, man, this is like a potentially an all-time great offense. You know what I mean? And so that that's kind of the way I look at like that them missing the benchmark is like, they don't have good defensive personnel. They're not a good defensive team and they're not, like, they don't have an elite unit that you look at as like the driving force behind their championship kind of odds. But to put it simply, most of this team construct is based on Dame being a superstar offensive player and he just hasn't been. And so that's where you like see the legitimate pathway is like, what if Dane and

Janus and then all just kind of figure it out on offense and then they're able to get enough stops through a funneling scheme that just tries to send everybody in towards their size? So, but we're going any further, where do you have the bucks? in this tier, do you have them at the top of your tier? Do you have them lower? Where are the bucks for you? Yeah, I'd Denver or I'd Milwaukee at 4.

Okay. I had Milwaukee at 4. I think that they are the team that I probably trust most outside of that. Well, trust is the wrong word. They're the team whose talent level, I believe in most outside of that top group of teams that we talked about. If you look at it since January 15th, they're 12th in defense. Like the defense, you know, I know it's not been great vibes wise since Doc got there.

But like the defense has gotten better from the catastrophic levels it was at early in the season particularly. Offensively, I really think that there is a shot. They just figure this thing out. Like truly at the end of the day, they have a top five offense in the league. The Janus Damien Lillard combination is more offensive star power than I don't know. How many teams can match that? at the end of the day. It is precious view.

I would say Denver can match it. I would say the Clippers can match it. I don't know. I think that they probably enter the series against Boston with a better top two than what Boston has. Absolutely. I trust. Yeah, it's just that I trust Boston's, you know, rest of the core pieces much, much more than I trust Milwaukee's.

And honestly, like, I think that Pat Beverly solves something. for them in terms of like constructing playoff lineups that could be beneficial. I'm not going to sit here and say Patrick Beverly is like a 30 minute per game guy in the playoffs at this point in his career. I don't believe that necessarily at 35 years old. But I think that having him around really does present more opportunities for them to create coherent

lineups that can defend at the point of attack, which is what they desperately desperately need. you can't go into a playoff series having Malik Beasley is your primary defensive option. It's just not going to work. It just is not the reality of playoff basketball at the end of the day. You know, Chris Middleton's kind of dealing with like a little ankle injury heading into the deadline or heading into the All-Star Break. And hopefully he's able to get back to 100%. I think he's been better since his start to the season at least.

You know, it's been a little bit hit or miss. but they're going to enter the series, they're going to enter any series in the east with the best one to punch. And that gives them a better puncher's chance than I think anybody else has, even if they're at a real coaching disadvantage in the playoffs, which I think, unfortunately for Doc has been proven time and time again ever since he won that title in Boston. To your point about the talent,

like I made a little list earlier as part of my Lakers, you know, whatever shred of optimism there is around the Lakers. To me, there are four teams in the NBA. that you can stay definitively have two of the 15 best playoff players in the league. Denver, Milwaukee, the Lakers, and the Sons. Like those are the four teams where it's like, if you're just taking playoff players to me,

and the one that's... Oh, the Clippers. The Clippers. I don't think Paul George necessarily is a top 15 player, do you? I would take Paul over Jamal Murray, even though I love Jamal. And I think that the combination of Yolkits and Jamal, elevates itself. And I have like an immense,

immense, immense amount of respect for Jamal Murray. I don't mean to, like I would have Jamal Murray in the top 20, but I would take Paul George over. So in a vacuum, I agree with you. I think Paul George is a better basketball player than Jamal Murray. But I have this thing on this show, this, this ethos, which is your impact as a basketball player really only matters within your own situation.

meaning like everything else is theoretical. So for instance, like as the two-man game, specifically next to Yokic, as a shot maker, like think about how specifically important what Jamal Murray does for the Nuggets. So like that to me, to me, Jamal Murray was like a top five winning impact player in the postseason last year

because of what he did in his role. This dude was like a 30, I can't remember. remember the exact numbers, but he was like, he was making shots at a bona fide superstar. Like what he did last year in the postseason is every bit as impactful as what Kyrie Irving did for the Cavs in 2016, Sands the gigantic performance in game five and game seven. Like the like in terms of like value in a role, like no one actually thought Kyrie was a top five player in 2016 or 2015. But his fit next to LeBron with the calves

in a playoff setting brought a winning impact that was of similar ilk to some of the stars of the league. So that would be the case. But I'll allow it in the sense that we'll say the Clippers too. So that's five teams. I think you've sold me, honestly. I think you've sold me on the Murray idea. I do tend to think of that argument more in a vacuum, but you're wrong or you're right that I'm wrong and it's not in a vacuum at the end of the day. So I think you're right.

I just had a mailbag question about this earlier today, which is why I brought it up. Like, I can't even remember what the mailbag question was. But like I ended up saying, like, to me, like your value as a basketball player is what you bring to your team. Like that's what that's not theoretical. That's real. But anyway, to your point, though, Milwaukee is one of five teams. Let's just do, let's make it a little bit more broad. It's one of five teams in the league that can state definitively they have two of the best 20 playoff players in the league.

The clippers, the nuggets, the bucks, the Lakers. the Sons. And so to me, that's the Bucks thing that they bring to the table is like, what if Dame and Yannis figured out? Now, on the Bucks front, this is, like, what I'm noticing on tape is like, I think we all pled forever for Janus to be more of a screen and roll guy. And like, he just never really did it until Dame came to town at the volume that he's doing it now. And, you know, as much as Janus is a great, I shouldn't say, As much as Janice has become a good passer in terms of like in his ISOs and postups at like drawing attention and making these plays, I actually think he hasn't been that great as a screen and roll guy this year in terms of like his decision making and his ability to interpret the defense.

I think he's, I don't think he's doing a good enough job screening. I don't think as a team they're actually organizing the floor well enough to get him into a situation where he can make easier reads. In a weird way, the Dame Janus pick and roll not being as productive. as you would hope, I think has been on both of them. I think it's been on Dame, not doing a good enough job, just being the offensive threat you need to get the panic coverages that you need to kind of generate the really easy role opportunities. But I think Janus has left a lot to be desired in terms of like, Janus to me is the MVP of the league right now. I think he's been the best regular season this year, a regular season player this year. I'm not trying to pick on Janus. I think it's just

he's in as much of a new role here as Dame is. And for Dame, it's just the geometry of the offense is very different compared to what he had in Portland. But like to me, Janice hasn't really, that whole synergy just hasn't really taken shape yet. To your point, what if it does? Because like,

if it does, that's where it could like really, really take off. I personally, I like their configurations better when they clear the side or empty corner for their ball screens. I feel like it just gets Janus better, like easier opportunities to quickly read.

I think that's the difference. Like in his ISOs and post-ups, he's really focused on the floor. Whereas in the ball screen, he kind of has to like go from setting a screen to like quickly interpreting the floor and what's happening right in front of him. And I think it's just a little bit more of a of a hesitation there, which has caused some issues. But I'm wondering what you've noticed watching the bucks this year that you think's holding them back offensively. Well, and I think that, you know, to your point,

the empty side actions, I mean, empty side actions, it feels like have taken, I don't want to say taking the league by storm, obviously teams have used empty side actions for years. But I would be fascinated to see numbers to see if it feels like teams are using empty side actions far more. And the idea behind empty side actions is that you have to pre-rotate, basically. You have to bring over the tagger for somebody like Janice, for somebody like Joelle Mbede, the Maxi Mbid one has stood out in my mind all year. They use it a ton in Philadelphia to be able to get Joe L into open space. You have to pre-rotate, and because you have to pre-rotate and you essentially have to play

three on two defensively, it, I think, creates an easier avenue to be able to read the court for players like Joelle and Bede, Janice and Tedacumpo, that can be a little bit turnover prone, right? Like, not can struggle a little bit with passing and playmaking at the end of the day. I think that you're 100% right in terms of why their struggles have been. Janice and Dame together still do not have that synergy in ball screens. I think that it's Janus's screening to an extent. And I think it's Janice's ability to read the floor as well.

It's just not a situation that he's been comfortable with throughout the course of his career to this point because he hasn't had that elite gravitational force as a pull-up player previously. He's still adjusting to this new reality that he currently lives in. it took Joelle and Bede in James Harden like probably half a year to be able to figure that out together. I'm not surprised that it's taken Janice and Damien Lillard, like hopefully half of a year to figure it out. They need to spend like these last 28 games that they have, 27 games, whatever they have left, figuring that out. That is their critical, critical thing. I don't think they win the title unless they have that elite attack figured out.

because for as much as I think Chris Middleton's been a little bit better over the course of the second half of the first half of the season it's Chris has not been good enough as a second side option to where you can consistently truly rely on him yet uh Brooke Lopez has been everything that he normally is I think he's been uh tasked with different defensive assignments that have made him a bit less functional under Adrian Griffin,

but for instance, them playing a bit more aggressive in ball screens, especially early in the season, was bonkers to me, given that you have Brooke Lopez on your team. But I think Doc will play to their strengths a little bit better at least.

They're going to have to get something out of the Malik Beasley. Jay Crowder has been like somewhat serviceable this year. I kind of thought there was a chance he was cooked, but he hasn't been totally cooked in the way that like Pat Coniton, for instance, has been. They need Pat Conantin to be able to give them something, in my opinion. And then they need

to figure out if they can rely on Andre Jackson and Marjohn Beauchamp in some way. My guess is that it would have to be Andre Jackson to be able to provide like real point of attack defense beyond Patrick Beverly. They need two of those guys. I think one of them can be Pat Bev.

It needs to probably be Andre Jackson to be able to give them like 10, 15 minutes. a game in the playoffs that they can at least use to tire out opposing ball handlers. Yeah, the Patrick Beverly acquisition I actually liked. I think the way you mentioned it is perfect. Like, he can't be a 30 minute per game guide, not even just because of like his own, you know, gas tank, so to speak. But also, I think you kind of have to keep Malik Beasley in the starting lineup for his confidence. Like, I almost think you have to like start Malik Beasley because

he has been shooting the shit out of basketball. You kind of have to start him and kind of like feed into his confidence and then basically lean into Pat, you know, for specific stretches of the game and maybe even play in more minutes, like almost like a, like a 25 minute per game type of guy. But in general, I, Jason, what is their closing lineup? That's what I'm struggling with with them right now, to be honest with you. I think I think Pat is good against guards. I just think he gets into trouble when you put him against bigger players.

I think he has a reputation as being a guy who can guard bigger players, but I don't think it actually matches up with reality. Okay. Question two. what are you closing against Boston with? Because they're going to like just absolutely spam like pick and pops or trailer threes with Christops, I would guess. So I actually don't know if you can totally trust Brooke to close those situations.

I, you know, it's funny before the season, I had the bucks above the Celtics on my contenders list. And then like it just, it flipped after like 15 games and I've never looked back. I think the Celtics would beat the bucks pretty handily if they played them. I do too. I don't know what their option is. I guess it's my thing.

That's what worries me. I don't, like it's probably Dame Janice Middleton. Honestly, is it Crowder Pat Bev? And then you just, what, do some more switching?

You try and switch like everything, but then you have Dame, who has not been very good defensively so far this season. Structurally, their lineups are hard. like, do you try and switch with Brooke maybe? Like that feels like a bad idea, to be clear. I'm not, I'm not, I think it's choosing between bad ideas in terms of what they're like closing

lineups against Boston could look like. Yeah, they're, they're in a really intriguing, difficult spot. I would switch against Boston. My thing with Boston, I think if you switch and you dig down. down into driving lanes, I think you can get them to settle. That's, that's, if I, if I was coaching against Boston, I, I would lean into whatever I could do to make them lean into their worst tendencies. And like they are, they, they, they're ISO and post up guys tend to settle for tough shots. So that, that would be, I think I'd probably leave

Brooke out there. And I would switch and just offer a lot of help and test their decision making. I think I agree with you and look like they kicked the shit out of Boston last time they played them like truly on the second night of a back to back for the record because they had just played the wolves I think a 100% and that was a game where like both teams were

relatively healthy I think they might have sat Al Horford for that game if I remember correctly but like both teams like relatively healthy I'm I think Boston has real schematic advantages against them, which one. No, I agree. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite.

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