The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - NBA Power Rankings: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland & Cavs ready to take the leap?

Episode Date: September 11, 2022

Jason Timpf breaks down the Cleveland Cavaliers ahead of the 2022-2023 NBA season. After trading with the Utah Jazz for star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell, are Darius Garland and the Cavaliers ready to make a serious run in the Eastern Conference? #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show.

This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but the show. celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok. The volume. What's up guys? It's Jason from Hoops Tonight, presented by Fanduel.

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In Tennessee, redline, dial 1-800-889-9-97889 in Tennessee. Visit www.1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. All right, welcome to Hoops tonight, presented by Fandew here at The Volume. Happy Friday, everybody. I hope all of you guys had a great week and that you have big plans. for the weekend. By the time you're actually listening to this, I will probably be at the place I'm staying in Mexico getting pounded with rain by the hurricane that is moving up the Mexico coast. That should be interesting. Hopefully, wherever I am at this exact moment in time,

things are going well. We're continuing with our power rankings today with number 12, the Cleveland Cavaliers. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the volume's YouTube channel. So you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT. So you don't miss any show announcements. And last but not least, if you can't get back to YouTube to finish one of these shows, you can always find them wherever you get your podcast under hoops tonight. So fair warning to Cavs fans, we did just spend about 20 minutes on the Cavs last week after the Donovan Mitchell trade. So this one will be a little bit shorter and in less detail than the one we just did last week just because we've already hit on a lot of these specific bases.

So last year they were 20th in offense, fifth in defense, despite the injuries that they dealt with. They had a 103.7 defensive rating with both Evan Mobley and Jared Allen on the floor together. Things ended with them blowing a double-digit half-time lead against Atlanta in the playing game. Super eventful offseason. They signed Raul Neto and Robin Lopez. They should be getting Ricky Rubio back. And they traded their lottery pick as well as Lori Markinen and Colin Sexton to the Utah Jazz for Donovan Mitchell, in addition to three first round draft picks as well as two swaps.

You'll notice that I have the calves in my puncher's chance contender tier. That is how much respect I have for what Donovan Mitchell. can do with the basketball in conjunction with Darius Garland and how good I expect this defense to be. If you have a top five defense, which I believe the calves will have if they are healthy, if they have that in addition to a hot Donovan Mitchell in a playoff series, they are capable of beating anybody. Will they be favored in series against the Warriors or the Boston Celtics or the Miami Heat or the L.A. Clippers?

No, they won't be favored in a series. like that, but they certainly will have a puncher's chance to beat them. That's why I have them in the contender tier. So if you look at their depth chart as of right now, at the guard position, they have Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Karis Lavert, who may or may not end up getting traded when this is all said and done, and Ricky Rubio. On the wing, they have Chetty Osmond, Isaac, Akoro, Dylan Windler, and Lamar Stevens, and then the Biggs, they're going with Jared Allen, Evan Mobley, Kevin Love, who once again may or may not be traded before the end of the season, and Robin Lopez. Pretty deep. The only position that gets a little tricky there is the wing. I like Chetty Osman a lot. He just is going to be physically overwhelmed by certain matchups.

And Isaac Okoro and Lamar Stevens, they're both really interesting athletes at the position, but they're both a little bit on the short side, which scares me for specific match. especially if they run into some of the bigger, stronger wings around the league. The interesting thing is going to be what they end up deciding to do with Lavert, because even though he's not really of a ton of value to this particular Cavs team, he does bring a specific skill set that somebody around the league is going to be interested in. So looking at the offensive end of the floor, this is going to be a pick and roll team. It's going to be pick and roll with some more pick and roll, and then even after that, more pick and roll.

Donovan Mitchell last year Average 1.03 points per possession on pick and rolls, which was best in the league among players who ran at least 500 of them. Darius Garland wasn't quite as good. He was at 0.9 points per possession. The one thing I wanted to cut him some slack there is, especially after the Colin Sexton injury, he basically became the only legitimate shot creator on the team.

that's just a lot to ask for any player to deal with. We talk a lot about repetition in how if you don't have diversity in attack, not just within your individual skill set, but also within your other teammates on the roster and what they bring to the table. If you don't have diversity of attack, you become easier to defend. Because if I can look you in the eye and see the same thing over and over and over again, 60, 70 possessions in a game, I'm going to start to get a little bit more used to what your tendencies are going one way or another.

And with that will make me, give me an advantage in trying to defend you. So I do expect Darius Garland's pick and roll point per possession to go significantly up the season now that he's splitting those duties with Darius Garland. And look at their role men. Obviously, we know what Jared Allen is. We talked to about him a little bit last week. Jared Allen is a vertical spacer, but he also can do what Rudy Gobert cannot do, which is if the pick and roll results in a switch for whatever reason,

he can run in and get a deep seal underneath the basket and make a short hook shot over his left shoulder, which is something that not many bigs around the league can do and as part of why Jared Allen is an all-star level big. And then Evan Mobley is in a phase of his career, especially as a big man that should be taking significant leaps as a player in each successive season. And I expect Evan Mobley to be a much better player this season,

and that inherently will make things easier for Darius Garland when he runs screening actions with him. Last year, the only other significant type of offense that they ran is post-up. They were fifth in total post-ups last year, 10th in efficiency. Evan Mobley was, this is insane. Evan Mobley, 151 post-ups last year, so roughly twice a game. 0.97 points per possession. Doesn't seem like much, but that's pretty solid. That's about as efficient as Jonas Valenciunis is in the post.

So as a rookie, as thin and wiry and raw as he was, he was every bit as efficient in post-ups as Jonas Valchunis, who has been a post-up big in this league for a long time. He's just going to be so insanely good. It's not even funny. Jared Allen, 1.06 points per possession on post-ups. A little bit lower volume, 107 total during the year, primarily doing it against switches and pick and roll, but that's pretty damn efficient.

Kevin Love, not great, 150 post-ups for 0.8-9 points per possession. I brought back nightmares to win. Obviously, you guys know I'm a big LeBron James fan when I was watching LeBron James with Kevin Love and the Cavaliers back, you know, half decade ago. It just, Kevin Love post-ups just never seemed to work out. The one team that they consistently worked against was like the Toronto Raptors as the Cavs would consistently destroy the Raptors in the playoffs. It was Kevin Love who would have his way with them in post-ups.

But my guess is that their offense is going to be a heavy diet of your turn, my turn type of pick-and-roll attack between Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. And then those pick-and-rolls specifically to result in switches in certain situations and then them to attack them in those switches by going to the post. I also think you'll see a tick up in isolation out of this group, too, because remember, again, like in a pick and roll situation, let's say it's, you know, Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell. If Donovan Mitchell gets good separation coming off the screen and the big man has to come out and effectively switches, and Donovan Mitchell's man dives down to grab Evan Mobley, typically you think, oh, go to the post.

But you could also attack the big man in isolation. And Donovan Mitchell was a good isolation player last year. out of 61 players who ran at least 100 isolations, he finished 12th in efficiency at 1.04 points per possession. And Darius Garland was actually a little bit better at 1.06 points per possession, albeit on lower volume. So I look at this as a situation where, again, heavy die to pick and roll, specifically targeting matchups,

and that's going to be the key for this particular group. Understanding, you know, if Donovan Mitchell has a better defensive player on specifically one that's good at navigating ball screens, they might be better off going more high volume towards Darius Garland and vice versa. And then the same thing with the role man, understanding that if Evan Mobley is being guarded by an exceptional screen defender, like ball screen defender, it's better to have him spot up and vice versa with Jared Allen, right?

So from that standpoint, it'll be about being selective about who they attack and where on the floor and then understanding that when they result in switches, you've got two players that can attack an isolation from the perimeter against the bigs and then also two players that can attack the switches down low in the post. I would say that with this Mitchell trade, again, they were 20th in offense last year. I think it's realistic to expect that they could bump up as high as number 10 and probably somewhere in that 10 to 15 range.

So let's just call for sake of argument if things go really well for them this year that they end up around 10th in offense. Moving on to the defensive end of the floor, I expect them to run a ton of drop coverage. This is not going to be a good switching team because Darius Garland's very small. Even if Donovan Mitchell improves as a defensive player, he's miles away from being good enough to be a guy that can consistently hold up in isolation. And then Jared Allen, you know, Evan Mowgli can switch out and guard perimeter players. Jared Allen's okay at it, but not great. With this particular group, they're not going to be able to run a really modern, switchy type of attack.

It's going to be a lot of navigating screens, and there's going to be a lot of pressure specifically on Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland to navigate around those screens to be useful on the defensive end of the four. The wing is going to be where their biggest defensive question mark is. Not because they aren't good there. Again, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are their weakest defensive. players, I'm more concerned in the Eastern Conference with the big wings that they're going to run into. You have to get through Jimmy Butler. You have to get through Jason Tatum. You have to get

through Jalen Brown. You have to get through Janice Santinacumpo. The wings in the Eastern Conference are deep, talented, big, strong, versatile. And is a guy like Chetty Osman going to be able to hold up athletically in that setting? I don't know. Is, you know, Lamar Stevens going to be able to hold up? I don't know. Is Isaac Akoro going to be able to hold up? I think those two guys are a little bit undersized. Lamar Stevens is big and strong, but guys will be able to shoot over the top of him. So it's one of those things where that specific role of guarding the best big wings in the league and a playoff series scares me a little bit. Now, what will end up being a huge X-factor there is Mowgli, and Big Shock, Evan Wobly is my X-factor for this particular team, but kind of

cheating ahead here, if he could be the guy that could switch on to Jason Tatum in a playoff series and guard him in the fourth quarter of a pivotal game, or do the same for a Jimmy Butler, man, that would go a long way towards alleviating my concerns on that end of the floor. And then, again, Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell, they are not going to be able to do a lot of switching. So it's going to come down to them being willing to fight over the top of screens. If they buy in and they at least do the best they can with the physical tools that they have, I think they'll be a top five defense again. I absolutely think that's on the table.

All right. So the best case scenario. Now, I think even Cavs fans would admit that they're not as good defensively on the perimeter as the best teams in the league, right? Like, they're not going to contain on the perimeter the way the Boston Celtics can or the Miami Heat can. or the Milwaukee Bucks can or the Golden State Warriors can or the LA Clippers can, right? I think even Cavs fans would be willing to admit that. But interior defense, they'll be as good if not better than anybody in the league. So especially in a playoff series when hands get sweaty and guys aren't comfortable taking jump shots, that could be something that works heavily towards their advantage.

The same thing could be said about the offensive end of the floor. I don't think they're going to be quite as fluid as the top tier offensive teams in the league. because of some of the floor spacing stuff with Jared Allen, question marks surrounding Evan Mobley and his ability to shoot the basketball, question marks from that three spot, if they can get competent shooting from the wing, I don't think they'll quite be as fluid offensively, but they have that upside punch of what Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland

can bring into a playoff series if they get hot. So to put it simply, their puncher's chance to beat anybody is if Donovan Mitchell has a, 2020, you know, in the bubble-esque run, like when he was going up against Jamal Murray, if he has that type of playoff run, and Darius Garland plays well, and they completely and utterly shut down the paint against teams. And they happen to catch a team that shoots poorly, even the best teams.

If the Warriors shot poorly, if the Clippers shot poorly, if the Celtics shot poorly, or the heat shot poorly, or the Bucks shot poorly, and they locked down the paint and Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland played well, they can win a playoff series. Again, like, when you have a truly elite skill, in this case, perimeter defense, or excuse me, interior defense and perimeter shot creation,

those two elite skills provided some other things break your way can be enough to win a playoff series, again, if things break your way. So their best case scenario absolutely is winning the championship. It's a long shot, but it's absolutely something that's on the table for this group. Their worst case scenario is if their defense takes a step back because you lose Lowery Mark and so you're a little bit smaller on the wing

compared to what they had last year. If Donovan Mitchell, obviously when Colin Sexton came out, they played another defensive wing alongside Darius Garland. If you plug Donovan Mitchell there and he plays defense the way he did in Utah, they could take a step back defensively. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English.

Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because, of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack.

So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your Obviously, injuries could be an issue. Jared Allen missed time with a finger last year. It just depends. Like if Evan Mobley can stay healthy throughout the season, everybody is susceptible to injuries on that front. I talked about Evan Mobley taking significant leaps. He shot 25% from three last year. The hope is he shoots better this year. That's not a guarantee, though. That's a question mark there. If his development is slower than expected. Donovan Mitchell's shot selection. I've talked a lot about how good Donovan Mitchell is, and he is. He's one of the best on-ball creators that we have in this league.

But he just has just that tiny bit of that Russell Westbrook syndrome where he struggles to see the total picture of what's happening in a basketball game. And so he can, in pivotal moments, especially take a bad shot or turn the basketball over or barrel into traffic and miss a layup or something along those lines. He does have a little bit of that in his game, and that always is dangerous, especially, I talk about this all the time. Playoff series is are determined by the slightest of margins. And it can take one silly mistake in a pivotal game five when the series is tied at two that can cost you a series.

Or be the difference from it being two-two or being three-one. That having their primary shot creator be someone that's a little volatile is a little concerning to me. So they also have potential to lose in the first round. I don't expect that to be the case. I think the more realistic outcome is they win a playoff series and lose in the second round. but this is a team that has that wide range of outcomes.

They have a puncher's chance to win the title if things go right, and they could also lose in the first round if things go wrong. So the X factor is Evan Mobley. You know, obviously right now at this exact moment of time, he's already a great defensive player. He's already one of the better shot blockers that we have in the league. He already can switch out and defend on the perimeter pretty well. But there's just that little bit of finikiness on offense, right?

like he only shot 25% from three last year. He's still young. He passes the ball well, but his assist to turnover ratio wasn't great last year. It's more of like a potential thing. I think in the long run, he's going to be potentially a better version of Anthony Davis because of what he can do from the perimeter with quick feet. He's got a long way to go to get there. But that is potential that he has.

And it's potential that I believe he could reach. That said, in order for them to reach their ceiling this particular season, they need him to take that leap sooner than later. They need him to bump up his three-point percentage from 25 to 35. They need him to bulk up a little bit so he can defend those stronger wings. Like I talked about, him being able to guard a Jimmy Butler in the fourth quarter of game four of a two-one playoff series could be the difference between this team losing and winning in that particular series. So his development, how good he becomes in this campaign, will be the very very different.

biggest indicator of what this team can do. Therefore, he is their X factor. Cavs fans, if you wanted more on this particular team, I did do about 20 minutes on them last week right after the trade. So you can find that a little bit deeper in our YouTube feed. That's all I have for today. And that's it for this weekend. We will be back Monday with number 11. As always, I appreciate your guys' support and I'll see you then. Volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media.

Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliver Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast, guaranteed human.