The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - NBA Power Rankings: Jayson Tatum & Celtics DYNASTY loading? Boston's top challengers

Episode Date: October 19, 2024

Jason Timpf concludes his NBA power rankings with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the defending champion Boston Celtics. Jason discusses what Boston must accomplish to enter the "all-time great team" conversation, breaks down the Celtics' biggest strengths and weaknesses, and shares whether he expects Boston to end the season as back-to-back champions. Timeline: 4:00 - Introduction 06:30 - #1: Boston Celtics 24:45 - NBA Mailbag (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) #Volume #Herd Follow Jason Timpf on social: https://twitter.com/_JasonLT https://www.instagram.com/jtimpf15/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast.

From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.

84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes,

follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing.

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And then one of the things we're going to do to kind of try to find more to talk about the Celtics is kind of focus on some specific matchups with them. Playoff series style against some of the teams at the top of the league, which teams I think have a realistic path to try to upset Boston versus teams that I don't. And then at the tail end of the show, this morning I tweeted out asking for some mailbag questions to just kind of hit on a bunch of preseason topics. We're going to be bouncing all around the league. You guys know the joke before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT so you guys don't miss your announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcast on our hoops tonight, don't forget it's helpful if you leave a rating and a review on that front. And then last but not

least, keep dropping mailbag questions and those YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them throughout the remainder of the season. Also, before we get started, I want to talk to you guys about game time. Today, now is a great time to get out in actually. actually see some of these events in person. Obviously, we have the NBA season starting up college basketball starting up college. Football is in full swing. NFL is in full swing. NHL starting up pretty soon, right? We have the Major League Baseball playoffs. We also have concerts and comedy shows all around the country. There are countless events that you guys can go to. And there is no better experience out there right now than game time to buy tickets.

They've started this new program called Game Time Picks where they curate the feed. Normally when you look at a show or an event to go to, there's thousands of tickets that you can choose from. And a lot of people are just trying to see if they can't get a good little paycheck from their tickets, right? But there are good deals in there too. And Game Time Picks curates that so that you're only looking at the best deals so you can be more efficient when you're looking at tickets. They have all in pricing, so you know exactly what you're paying as you're choosing the ticket. You can check out in as few as two taps. So it's a nice, easy process.

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Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code hoops for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account, redeem code hoops. That's H-O-O-P-S for $20 off. Download game time today. what time is it game time. All right, let's talk some basketball. So number one in this year's power ranking season preview style is the Boston Celtics. Not really much to say in terms of an offseason recap. Only changes to the back end of the roster. Baylor Shireman, their draft pick

shot the ball poorly in preseason, but I don't think he'll be in the rotation much. You know, we might see a guy like Lonnie Walker who had some impressive driving kick possessions. We might see him make the roster and see some opportunities, but none of it really matters. The The core eight for the Boston Celtics is the core eight. Derek White, Drew Holliday, Jalen Brown, Jason Tatum, Christopps, Sporzingus, Al Horford, Peyton Pritchard, and Samhouser. That's their playoff rotation.

I think it's the best top eight in the NBA. My friend Sam Vassini was saying on the show yesterday that he thinks Minnesota's top eight is the best in the NBA. I think I disagree with him. Like, yeah, Dante DiVincenzo and Nikiel Alexander Walker and Nas Reid are a better trio than Al Horford, Peyton, Pritchard, and Samhouser. But the top five are just so much better for Boston. And as a matter of fact, I think I'd take Oklahoma City's top eight before I would take Minnesota's top eight.

But I think Boston, that top eight rotation is rock solid. Pritchard and Houser both really flashed defensive upside in the postseason. Upside is the wrong word. They held up well in the postseason. They got hunted consistently, as you would expect, and they held up well. Porzingis brought everything that we, in the brief stints where he was actually available, he brought everything that we knew that we were, that Boston needed from him in terms of rim protection and matchup attacking on switches and ball screens.

It all just came together perfectly in a dominant playoff run. They've looked completely locked in and ready to go in the preseason. They're four and one. They have the best offense in the league, 121 offensive rating. That's 5.7 points better than the second best offense in preseason. Insane. They're averaging 53, three point attempts per game. They have a 61% true shooting as a team.

Boston's offensive system is just the best that we have in the league right now, the most talented that we have in the league right now. It's like a well-oiled machine. The defense has been fine in preseason. They have a plus 16.3 net rating in preseason. That's the best in the league by 5.3 points. So just continuing their dominance. Jason Tatum looks great.

His jumper looks. I just kind of reconfigured. And it's almost like he just took a moment to reset and just kind of find his foundation, find his base again as a jump shooter. 1.13 points per jump shot in preseason. and 1.2 points for catch and shoot jump shot, 1.08 off the dribble. All really good. I think the Celtics will face some substantially tougher playoff competition this year.

And I'm going to get into that concept a little bit more here in a second. But I also think that they'll have a substantially better version of Jason Tatum at their disposal in the playoffs than they did last year. And I think that that is going to put them in a position to handle a tougher playoff run. Think like the 2016 Golden State Warriors team. you know, I've seen a lot of, there's been a lot of like, kind of like argument among basketball fans between Celtics fans and the rest about like how to regard last year's team. And part of the disconnect is like a lot of Boston fans want that team to be regarded as all time great. And my point of view on that is there's no such thing as an all time great team until you've won

multiple championships. That to me is like the baseline, right? And one of the things that happens is when you, on the course of a run to a, championship, you need some luck, right? And there are lots of teams in NBA history that have benefited from luck on their way to an NBA championship. But that is why the all-time great teams, we typically look at multiple championships, because it's as circumstances change, as things go different, you have to legitimize your championship when things don't go the way that you want them to, right? Like, just take most recently the 2017 and 2018 Warriors. Now, they had a massive

talent advantage, even to a greater extent than the Celtics. But they went in 2017. 17, beat the shit out of everybody. They went 15 straight playoff games, right? But the next year, it's like all of a sudden there's this Houston Rockets team. It's really interesting. They take a three two lead in the series. Now, obviously, they benefit from more luck in the form of Chris Paul getting injured. But inevitably, what happens is you see some different circumstances,

and it's about overcoming adversity. You look back at the Warriors Dynasty and, like, there are some easy ones in there, right? Like, there's the two in 2017 and 2018 where they just kicked everybody's ass with talent. But it's like, then we have 2015, where they came back, from two separate two one deficits, right? We go back to the 2020 series against the Celtics, where they're down to one on the road. They need a big win.

You look at the totality of their success. It looks different. Going back previously to the previous repeat champion, the Miami Heat, right? 2012, they kind of handle everybody. Even in the finals, they end up getting out of there in five games. There's like a little bit of a brief kind of thing

with the Boston Celtics in the conference. was that in the finals? I think it was in the conference finals, but there was a little bit adversity there, but they kind of kicked butt. Then you get into the 2013 season. It's like this grueling seven game series against the Pacers, this grueling seven game series against the San Antonio Spurs. And by the time they win the title, it's just like, it just kind of adds like a different layer to it, right? So think like the 2016 Golden State team, right? They get super lucky in a bunch of different ways in that playoff run. Every single team they play has guys hurt out of the lineup. They end up going into that Cleveland Cavalier series. And

Kyrie Irving gets hurt in the first game. Kevin Love had his shoulder dislocated in the first round. And it's like Golden State wins. And then outside of the Golden State fan base, there's just a lot of like people talking like, like, yeah, they got lucky this. Yeah, they, you know, let's see him do it again next year. They come out next year and they just start beating everybody's ass.

And then, yeah, we also, we obviously had that weird, um, uh, kind of NBA final series where they end up losing. But as we zoom out from the Warriors dynasty, it's clearly legitimate. there's four championships. Steph Curry has all these big moments. It just has this like kind of aura in retrospect that legitimizes everything that they do. And so that's the thing. Like like was there some luck for the Celtics last year? Yeah. Like they there was up the five best teams in the league, they didn't have to play any of them. Right. That's just kind of part of how basketball goes. This year will be tougher.

Go kick everyone's ass and shut them all up. I've seen a lot of people say things like, well, we're all time great because of the advanced metrics. No one cares about the metrics in an Eastern Conference where you're beating the shit out of really bad teams a lot of the nights. Multiple trophies is where you get that respect. That is the opportunity that lies before Boston. As we look back to previous champions, look at how all of them are regarded. Denver won, but then they didn't get another one. So now a lot of people are already writing Denver off. And no one's going to regard Denver as an all-time great team unless they win another one here in the next year or two, right? Going back to that Warriors team in 2022 is really cool.

kind of fell off again the next year. So no one views that 2022 team as some sort of all-time great team, right? Going back to 2021 with the Milwaukee Bucks, like impressive team. There hasn't been anything after that to legitimize it. I thought that Lakers team in 2020 was really good. But then they got started to run into some injury stuff, and then they fucked up their roster doing some stupid stuff in the front office, right? The Raptors end up losing Kauai. Like,

there is the only way that a championship team can truly resonate, on a level that lasts is to get multiple. That's the way it goes. When we look back at the great teams in NBA history, who are they? It's the Warriors. They won four. It's the Heat. They won two.

It's the Lakers in the 2010s. They won two. The Spurs, they won five. The Kobe Shack Lakers, they win three. The Bulls, they win six. The Rockets, they win two. The Pistons, they win two. The Lakers and Celtics in the 80s.

You've got to put together multiple iconic playoff runs in order to truly resonate on that level. But that said, this team has that potential. So let's get into it a little bit more and talk about what a repeat would look like for this particular team. First of all, I want to address one weakness, the one specific weakness that this team has. They're a little bit thin at the center position and a little bit old and frail in their best player group, right, with Horford and Porzinger. Hawford turns 39 before the NBA finals this year. Porzingis gets hurt every year.

And he's hurt already to start this year from an injury suffered last year in the postseason. But Brad Stevens has done a really nice job at building out. a deep rotation of backup centers. They have five centers that are going to be on their season opening roster, right? Like Luke Cornett, Nemis Queda, and Xavier Tillman are all going to get the, like, the majority of the center minutes to start the year. I think they're going to manage Al Horford very carefully to start the year. I don't think they're going to compensate for Porzingis being out by just riding Al

Horford into the ground. They're going to run off of these backup centers. And playing center for the Celtics is an easy job. They're always flanked by excellent perimeter defenders and athletes who can shoot. and they just make life easier for them, right? Will they drop a few regular season games here and there because they're running a weak drop coverage with a weak center? Sure, they're going to drop some games.

But the most important thing for this team is to manage their health so that Porzingis and Horford are ready to go in April. Because when Porzingis is healthy, they look like far in away the best team in basketball. So here's my prediction for this season. I think they'll run away with the best record in the league again. They're built for regular season basketball, just with the depth and the way that their system kind of generates shots in the way that they defend.

I think they're going to end up with a large margin over the number two seat in the East again. I think they'll end up several games ahead of Oklahoma City. I think Oklahoma City is at least relatively close to Boston and talent now after the acquisitions of Hartnstein and Caruso. But the East has seven bad teams. I looked at the Celtic schedule this year. They have four games against the Hawks,

four games against the Nets, four games against the Bulls, four games against the Hornets, three games against the Pistons, four games against the Raptors, three games against the Wizards. it's like they might drop a game or two there, but they're going to go like 25 and one against that set or 24 and two.

Like last year in that same set of teams, they dropped three really close games to Charlotte, Atlanta. Two of them went to overtime. You could argue they should have gone undefeated against that group. So like that I think will keep a good, healthy gap between them in Oklahoma City. Because Oklahoma City has to play that Western Conference schedule. They're not playing any of those Eastern Conference teams more than twice.

And the West has 13 teams that legitimate. think they can make the playoffs and be good. So, like, I would imagine that Boston's going to end around 65 wins with a healthy advantage in the east and a little bit of an advantage over the West. My guess is that they'll be the runaway number one overall seed. As for the playoffs, I think there are teams that are capable of taking them out, but I would pick Boston in each matchup. Like the Knicks, I'm having a really hard time getting there.

I've looked at it a lot in light of the Carl Anthony Towns edition. I just think the Celtics are a better version of the Knicks. I don't think there are enough matchup advantages there for the Knicks to potentially swing that series. Obviously with the Sixers, it's like what if Embed is just healthy in April and finally has this breakout playoff run, but that feels like a long shot. We've been talking about that for years, right? The Bucks, I think they're too slow on the perimeter.

I also think that they have the personnel to switch the Dame Yannis pick and roll when things really slow down, which most teams don't have. I think you put Jalen Brown on Dame and you put Tatum on Yannis and you just switch that action, and I think that puts them in an advantageous position and slow down half-court environments. I just, I have a really hard time seeing Boston lose out east. Like, I think that it's far more likely than not that Boston wins the Eastern Conference. Now, there are two teams out west that I think have more straightforward paths to beating Boston. Denver, because Boston just can't guard Yokic. Like, put it very simply, the only team that Boston couldn't beat last year was Denver.

and it was the same thing. It's just they can consistently generate great shots off the back of Yokic because Boston just doesn't have anybody on the roster that can remotely make him feel uncomfortable. But even then, I think Boston's a little better now than they were last year. I think Tatum will be better than he was last year. And I think Denver's a little bit worse. So in a way that I would have picked Denver by a smidge over Boston last year, I think I'd pick Boston over Denver this year.

But at least if you're a Denver fan, there's a straightforward path there, right? like Yokich picks them apart, they go cold from three. You can kind of like see the vision, so to speak. But I would pick Boston. And then Oklahoma City, they have true five out spacing. All five of those players that are in their small ball group are excellent defenders in space. Shegildos Alexander would be the best player in the series. But even then, I think I'd pick Boston because Jalen Williams is Oklahoma City's second best player

and the guy who's going to be determining so many important possessions and he's 23 years old. So like Boston just has a substantial, experience advantage there. So my prediction, I think this is the year that Boston finally breaks the trend of teams not repeating. I think they cement themselves in the ranks of the all-time great teams.

I think they'll have some more memorable playoff moments because I think they're going to face some tougher teams and they're going to have to overcome a little bit of adversity on their way there. And I think that when we come to this point next year, Boston will finally have the respect that they're seeking being viewed as one of the all-time great teams in NBA history. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you

need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.

Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of Two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people.

I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jette. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack.

I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?

Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Keer Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests.

I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross,

because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines,

is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast. Learn the hard way. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the hard way and listen now. All right, let's get to our mailbag. First question.

A lot of good ones from you guys today. Thank you for participating. As always, did the Knicks sacrifice their identity? Gritty, offensive rebounds, Tibbs guys to appear better on paper. This is a really interesting question. There's no doubt that their identity will look a little bit different this year. I think that goes without saying.

I still think a good chunk of last year's identity is there, though, right? with Josh Hart, O.G. Anobie, Deuce McBride is a guy that just kind of brings that same mentality. Jalen Brunson is a tough-minded guy, Mitchell Robinson when he's healthy. I think McHale Bridges kind of fits that mold and will add to that this season. But the reality is, they had a certain like ceiling last year. Too much was on Brunson's plate offensively to actually win for playoff rounds. I didn't think that they had enough aggregate talent to really capitalize on the advantages that Jalen Brunson was creating as well. Like, they capitalized on attention devoted to Brunson on the offensive glass as guys would break free and crash as they were in rotation.

But I actually think they have enough talent this year to have a little bit more of a driving kick look, a little bit more of an advantage extending look, meaning like when Jalen Brunson draws a heavier preponderance of the defense in his direction, guys that can drive closeouts and turn good shots into great shots. I think that was something that was missing last year. And then obviously just the true five out spacing that they can accomplish with Carl Anthony Towns at center. It's a look that they're. just didn't have in the past. So yeah, is it, look at it this way. Anytime you make substantial roster changes, there's a certain amount of risk. And yes, there's a version of this where this team

just isn't as tough as they are last year and they underachieve and it doesn't go well, right? But last year's team had no championship ceiling. This team actually does. And so it's about the risk. Anytime you want a real reward in life, you've got to put yourself out there and take some risk. That's what the Knicks are doing. Yes, it could go south, but there's also a version of this that works out. Do you think Dalton Connect will eventually play his way into the starting lineup for the Lakers? A lot of folks thought he could eventually take Rui's spot, although I disagree. I would like to hear what you have to say about it. Definitely not this year.

With the way that this Lakers starting lineup is constructed, they really need Rui's size, especially on the defensive glass with LeBron and just some of his inconsistent defensive engagement at this phase in his career. It's also part of them just kind of leaning into offense. But maybe a future version of the Lakers, you could see that. And this is where it gets interesting because let's say we think about life post-Lebron. So you have your foundational pieces, right? You have, I think we can, I think we see like the, the Lakers would see their like three, four years from now back court as Austin Reeves and Max Christie.

I think that goes about saying. And I think that's a nice natural fit, right? Skill guard, athlete guard primarily defends and attacks closeouts, right? Then you have Anthony Davis, but then there's this two three or the three four spot that you're looking at, right? And the obvious choice is like, oh, well, Rui slots down to the four when LeBron is gone and then you put in Dalton Connect at the three. This is where it gets tricky, though. That has one good defensive athlete at the two in Max Christie, right?

I don't think Dalton could start at the three for an NBA team unless the four man and the two man and the five man were all excellent defensive players. Do I think Dalton Connect will eventually become somebody that is functional on defense? We'll see. It's definitely, he has the athleticism too. it's just a question of whether or not he puts in the work and picks up the instincts and commitment to like attention to detail to actually make that happen. But just

in terms of who he, in terms of his natural abilities as basketball player, I don't think you could start him alongside another weak defensive forward like Rui Hachamura. So in terms of the long term goals for the Lakers, if you're looking at as Austin Max Dalton,

that four man next to AD is going to have to be another big, strong athlete who is an excellent defensive rebounder, an excellent defensive player. And so more likely than not, I almost see Dalton Connect at this kind of point in his career, because this is the other part of it too. You better be damn good on offense if you are starting for an NBA team and you're a mediocre to below average defender.

So like so much of this is like maybe Dalton Connect never really has starting potential. He's more of like a sixth man type of guy, right? Then maybe Rui is the four and they look for a long term option at the three. But in terms of future version of the Lakers, do I think Dalton Connect could eventually become a starter, sure, but I see almost, I see it basically a 0% chance of that happening this year. He might get a spot start here or there because of injuries, but I don't see that being

part of the vision for this particular season. If the Thunder get a lottery pick from the Clippers this year, what should the Thunder do with the pick? It's easy decision. You hang on to it and you see if you can get Cooper flag. This is a team like if you're looking at the build, the one guy they're missing

is a legitimate four man to flank Chet. They went with a different direction this summer, opting for a look with Chet at the four next to a center, which maybe that ends up being what this looks like in the long run anyway. But if you have an opportunity to get Cooper Flag, you wait to see if you can get Cooper Flag. Now, if you can't get Cooper Flag and you can't get any of these guys

at the top end of the draft that everyone's kind of keyed in on, then I would start looking at potentially trading that pick and looking for that forward more through the trade market. Because there's a timeline thing starting to take shape here. As you look at the age of these guys, they're actually starting to enter into legitimate championship. contention and continuing to develop prospects for the future may not be the best path. The other thing they can do, this is something that I wouldn't be surprised if we see more teams

do as we enter into this kind of next phase of the CBA with some of the limitations surrounding the aprons. But we might actually see a team like Oklahoma City let guys go when they need to get paid. Because like if you think about it from the same point of the payroll, if you got to pay three Max guys, and let's say that's Chet, J. Dub, and Shea, then you can't afford to have expensive role players around them. And so maybe it's one of those things where you use a higher draft pick that typically would be used on a player that has upside long term on more of a guy that is not as heavy on the upside, but is ready to go right away and actually try to target discount

rotation pieces through the draft. I think that's something that you might see a team like Oklahoma, Oklahoma City look to do as well. Not related to preseason, but you recently said LeBron's argument for being the goat is his longevity and that MJ has a better peak for sure. How are you so sure about MJ's peaking higher? If your argument is only six and eight years, that is more of a team stat.

That's kind of the point. Like, MJ's peak is clearly more dominant in terms of the actual accomplishments of him and his basketball team. The best individual basketball player that I have ever personally watched was 2018, LeBron. he was basically like Luca Donchich as a surgical half-court shot creator who could pass every single read,

who could make every single shot from every single spot on the floor. But he was also one of the best athletes in the league who brought a ton of downhill rim pressure, which is something that Luca doesn't bring. And at that phase in of his career, LeBron was still able to leverage himself as a defensive player at a level near the top guys in the league when he needed to. That was the best basketball player that I've ever seen personally. But that team lost in the finals in large part, because the team had a lot of limitations, and there's a lot of subjectivity there.

It's hard to argue with six championships in eight years with respect to what was going on in the world of basketball at that point in time. You're not going to be able to argue LeBron's peak beyond the realm of subjectivity. So, like, that's the thing. Yeah, do I, I'm also a big believer that basketball players are always getting better. Like 2018, LeBron's the best basketball player I've ever seen. I have a feeling I'm going to see a player that I think is better at some point in the next 10 years. But it's not going to be because LeBron wasn't the best player in the league at the time.

it's going to be because basketball players keep getting better. Just look at how much better the shooting is now compared to where it was. Guys are better at shooting further away from the basket. Guys are better at shooting off of more complicated dribble combinations. As a league, we're getting so much better in advanced passing reads, advanced pick and roll shot creation. We're getting better defensively as well. Like the league is just getting better.

Basketball players are getting better. And so, yeah, I tend to think that the 6-9 super versatile point forward who could dribble pass and shoot better. most players in the league was better than the 6-6 scoring guard, who was also one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Like, MJ in his era, was far and away the best, and all players have gotten better, and LeBron is the best of a better group of players,

and Wembe will probably be the best of an even better group of players, right? And that's just kind of how I see it's not perfectly linear, but generally the league is advancing and players are getting better. What percentage of the league matches up well enough with Boston to make us believe anybody but Boston, can win. And do you think it makes the season less enjoyable if you know that there's no team that can? Keep up the good work, really enjoy your content. Thank you for supporting the show. I, you know, I did feel that way about the KD staff warriors. I legitimately didn't think anybody

could beat them. Even when they would lose, I thought it was mostly about like just kind of like playing down to their competition. This is something I've said many times on the show, but even if Chris Paul didn't get hurt in the 2018 conference final series against the Rockets, I still think the Warriors win that series. Yes, they went up three, two. And obviously, Chris Paul getting hurt helped things. But let's just put it on a real basic level. Does Golden State go home and get Game 6 at home? I think they do, even if Chris Paul plays. Then there's a game seven. And yes, it's in Houston. But who are you taking? Are you taking KD, Steph, Draymond, Clay, and Andre Guadala? Are you taking those Rockets dudes? I'm taking those, I'm taking the Golden State Warriors

dudes. So like, I didn't think anybody could beat that team. It was basically like this Boston Celtics team, except for instead of Tatum and Brown, it was Katie and Steph, the second and third best players in the league. That, that to me is the greatest basketball team ever assembled and it's not particularly close. Boston, to me, is a special basketball team with regard to recent NBA history, but they just don't quite have that like otherworldly top end talent that like nobody can mess with. And that to me makes them at least beatable, even though they're the best team in the league. That, I think, keeps this season very interesting.

As I mentioned, I have a hard time discussing. I talked about this in the actual Celtic segment. I have a hard time really conceptualizing an Eastern conference team to beat them just from a basketball perspective. But Oklahoma City and Denver are two teams out west that I think could present Boston with some real issues, particularly Boston Cancard Yokic. We've seen that just too many times over the last few years. And that Oklahoma City can put together five-man lineups with real two-way athletes on at all five positions, which is something that Boston can do

and part of what makes Boston so difficult to play, right? I would still pick Boston in both of those matchups now because Denver has declined a little bit. I think Boston's better. And then I think Boston is more experienced than Oklahoma City. However, there are teams that have punchers chances to beat Boston. I do think they are a risk for an upset.

And that is something that I think makes them a more legitimate, like kind of like parody concept favorite compared to teams like Golden State. You know, an interesting way to look at it would be like, would I take Boston or the field. If I had to pick the KD. Steff Warriors or the field, I would take the KD. Steff Warriors every single time. I just, I just,

there's no version of that where I think one of those other teams are going to win. If I had to choose between Boston and the field this year, it'd be more of a toss-up for me. And even though I do think Boston is demonstrably the favorite, it's more of a toss-up for me in terms of them or the field. And I think that's kind of the big

difference in terms of I think that's the big difference in terms of the parody and just how much people can kind of look forward to Boston potentially getting upset. On a real basic level, I'm pulling up the stat right now. I remember when the KD Staff Warriors were assembled, after they won in 2017, I can't remember the exact, I can't remember the exact odds, but they were negative odds to,

they were negative odds to win the title before the season. in that 2018 year. And for good reason, they'd won 15 straight playoff games in the previous year. So like for good reason, I want to say they were like minus 170 to win the title, meaning you'd have to bet $170 before the season started

to win 100 if Golden State won the title. I can't remember exactly what the number was, but they had negative odds to win the title. This year, Boston's plus 310. So if you bet $100 on the Celtics to win the title right now, you'd win $310. For the record, I think that's a great bet. because I think that it's probably a little closer to 50-50 than they're letting on.

So I think that's a bet that would be worth looking at. But I do think that there's a lot more parity in the league right now than there was at that point in time. Julian Strother has had an amazing summer in preseason. How does him excelling affect Denver's outlook? So so far on 26 jump shot attempts, this preseason is getting 1.5 points per jump shot. The only real difference though is like he's hitting all of his catch and shoot attempts. but he's struggling off the dribble, and he's struggling creating shots off the dribble. And I think

that is ultimately the thing that is going to be what makes him a legitimate secondary shot creator or a guy that they could potentially slot in for Christian Brown to increase the productivity of the starting lineup. And so and then obviously we got to see how he develops defensively as he picks up more high leverage

assignments and bigger minute loads, right? But obviously that potential's there, but everything with these young guys with Denver is up in the air at this point, and I really need to see some regular season basketball before we start making those those stances. Thoughts on the Warriors and how they will do this season. Is the dynasty officially over? I would never say it's over, over. I do think that there's some similarities to the 2021 offseason where they kind of brought in some more functional role players that will will immediately

make them better. I do think the Warriors will be better than last year. I think Kyle Anderson, Buddy Heald, and DeAnthony Melton are all shoe and fits. Young players get a little bit better. I think Steph's going to have a bounce back season from where he was at the tail end of last year, right? The big difference between this right now and what the 2022 Warriors became off the back of that 2021 offseason was you could make the case that Steph was the best basketball player alive at that point in time. In 2021, before they made those offseason additions, he was barbecuing the entire league. He's coming off a pretty substantial slump to end last season. I do think he'll be better.

I still think he's a top 10-ish player in the NBA. But Steph is not on the true top-tier superstar tier anymore. That's the main reason that I can't see them going over the top into real championship contention this year. To put it simply, it's Steph in a bunch of role players. And if it's step in a bunch of role players and he's not the very best player in the league, he's not going to beat other teams around the league that have more star talent and better role players.

And so, yeah, I think the Warriors are good. I think they're feisty. I think they're going to be better than last year. I think they'll be in that, you know, somewhere in that six to eight range probably, maybe six to ten depending on how their health goes. But yeah, I don't see championship contention from this team unless they hit on a trade during the season. Even though the Mavs made the finals last year, do you see them as contenders next year with the players they've picked up in Kair returning 33? I have them as the best of the teams in that second tier.

So I'm my top four teams, right? I have Boston, Denver, Oklahoma City, and New York. Those are my true top tier championship contenders that I think. think all should feel really good about their chances. There's a small gap, and then from 5 to 11, I've got seven teams that I classify as if things go right contenders. Dallas is for me in the top of that tier. That's where I had them last year going into the playoffs.

If you remember last year going into the playoffs, I had Boston and Denver, and then a gap, and then I had Dallas at number three as the best of the second tier championship contenders. Even going into the finals, I never saw them as a true top tier contender. Those of you guys who watched my NBA finals preview remember me saying, I didn't just pick Boston. I specifically said I expected Boston to kick their ass. I said they'd win multiple games in blowout fashion. They ended up winning.

I think they led by 20 plus and three of their four wins. It led by like 21, 26 and something. It was crazy. They kicked their ass. So like I like Dallas. I think they're a really good team. I think they're the best of the second tier contenders. But to me, there's a firepower difference between them

and the teams that are in that top tier. Do you think Moses Moody will have a breakout season this year or be subjected to his typical limitations imposed by Steve Kerr? The thing is that Steve Kerr is always like playing guards that he trusts to run his system. And so guys like DeAnthony Melton and Buddy Heald are just going to get a lot of minutes. And I think that just directly interferes with Moses Moody and his opportunities. He'll get his opportunities, but inevitably this is going to end in a consolidation trade.

They have 13 guys that could realistically play in the rotation. And that's just not good for anybody. It's not good for their goals for the season because it's a waste of talent. It's an inefficient way to use talent. It's not good for the talent development because guys aren't getting the reps that they need. So inevitably there will be a consolidation trade. Maybe it includes a moody. But if it doesn't, then that'll be where he gets his opportunity.

Thoughts on a Brandon Ingram for Michael Porter Jr. trade midseason. Denver gets a consistent playmaker who doesn't fit perfectly but supports Jamal Murray staying healthy with less responsibility. New Orleans gets a confident three-point shooter for Zion with very questionable. consistency, but a great fit. This is an interesting idea because the idea would be okay, if Jamal Murray struggles, then you would need somebody that can help run perimeter action and be a shot maker for Denver. Brandon fits that role pretty well, right? For the Pelicans, so much of their driving kick offense is going to be initiated by Zion and DeJante Murray. So having

a guy that's more of a catch-and-shoot off ball player, maybe it's a more seamless fit, although Brandon Ingram has looked sharp to start the year. So like, here's my thing. It's interesting. but it's high risk. So I'd want to see how Jamal Murray looks first. If Jamal Murray comes out and he looks like Jamal Murray after, you know, 30 games or so, then don't fuck with it. Jamal, Yokic, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter, Jr. They won a title and got close to winning a title closer than people think last year.

So don't mess with it. But if you get out into the season and 30, 40 games in Jamal Murray looks like he did last year in the playoffs, then it's one of those things where you have to start looking at trying to capitalize on Nicole Yoke's. which is title window here. And in that case, you have to take on a little bit more risk. But don't take on risk if you don't have to. Let's wait and see how Jamal Murray looks. Why are you so strong-fisted on Yokic and the Nuggets title odds?

Why is it always they were up 20 in game seven and not they blew the lead to the better performing team? It wouldn't be the first time the best in the world wouldn't have a big chance to win the chip. We've seen Braun and Steph in 34. Here's why I'm still bullish on the Nuggets. They won the title the year before last. and then last year they were a couple of minutes away for making the conference finals.

You'd be foolish to write those guys off. I just don't know how else to put it. Do the Sons have a legit chance to come out the West where they have to upgrade over Nerkich? It's hard to say, I mean, Ryan Dunn developing, as Sam Bucini was saying yesterday, into a legit 3-n-D weapon for them would be huge because he's just one of the most dynamic athletes that was in that draft class. My thing with the Sons is it goes beyond just Nerkich. As a roster, they're not very physically imposing.

and just in the playoffs, especially with the way the rules have changed, everything is just so physical, and it's so much about grabbing and holding and winning these rock fights. And I don't think Phoenix has set up well to win rock fights. That said, everybody in that tier has issues from Dallas, Minnesota, Philly, Lakers, bucks, sons, all those teams have issues. And so all it takes is a couple favorable matchups here and there, a young guy popping like Ryan Dunn, hitting on a key trade.

one of the top tier teams gets upset, something like that could open up that door and then they could shoot through that gap. All right, one last question. Then we're done for the day. Is there anywhere that screams Zach Levine trade doesn't feel it to me? And when they traded for Giddy,

do you think they knew Lonzo was coming back? Seems very redundant to have so many ball dominant guys, incredibly poor team building, in my opinion. The thing with the Levine piece is he's just hard to trade because of how big his salary is. Like, on a very basic level, there are a lot of teams out there that I think are looking at the situation going like, man, if we could bring Zach in here, this would actually be really good for us. But on the flip side, it's like, yeah, but we would have to send out $50 million worth of salary.

As soon as we send out, that could be three really high level role players. And there are just too many examples in NBA history. Most recently the Russell Westbrook trade where it's like, okay, you bring in this guy. But the Russell Westbrook trade was not what killed. The Russell Westbrook is not what killed the Lakers. The Russell Westbrook trade killed the Lakers because they gave up KCP, Kyle Kuzma, and in the ensuing salary crunch, lost Alex Crusoe.

So, like, that's the real issue is it's just hard for them to get rid of Zach Levine. But the best thing he can do to start the season is just you've got to feed him and help him bump up his numbers and see if he can't drive up his value so that you can make a deal. As far as giddy goes, to me, Lonzo, Lonzo's more of like a connective point guard throwing kickhead passes and being a connective passer. is not a guy that I like to run a ton of action.

So I don't think that that necessarily clashes with Giddy. And you got to give Giddy a good hard look because you just traded Alex Caruso for him instead of for draft compensation. And so you damn well better have a plan to see if Josh Giddy can do anything. One last thing. Before we get out of here, actually, I wanted to quickly hit. I just had a quick thought on the, I just had a quick thought on the clippers, this Kauai Leonard things.

Quay Leonard's going to miss the start of the season. A lot of people are talking shit about the clippers. and here's the thing. It's really easy to make those types of opinions known in retrospect. So, for instance, yeah, the Clippers basically set Oklahoma City up for success. All this draft compensation, Shegildes Alexander, fourth best player in the league, you know, obviously getting off of Paul George, all of this just spoon-fed Oklahoma City a contender, right?

But let's not, we can't operate in 2024 with what we know, and pretend like we would have made a different decision back then. In 2020, remember where you were when the Kauai News came down? I remember I was in Mexico with some friends. I remember getting the, it was late at night, getting the tweets coming through from Wojianowski, and I'm like, oh my God, they got Paul George and Kauai Leonard on this team that already has all of these good

role players. Overnight, they became the championship favorite. At various points over the last four years, they looked like the best team in the league. in 2020 at various points in the regular season. In 2021, before Kauai Leonard got hurt in that playoff run, right? Last year, in the middle of the regular season, they were playing better basketball than Boston over the middle third of the season.

They looked like the best team in the league. So like, as I talked about earlier, you've got to take risks to win the championship. And there was a big risk they're taken by the Clippers. It was the right risk. They had legitimate chance. to win, it didn't work out. And like, yeah, on the tail, every time you give up young players, it's like, it's like

with the Pelicans and the Lakers. Yeah, like they happen to win a title. So it's all, it all gets talked about differently. If the Lakers did not win the championship in 2020, can you imagine how different that deal would be talked about with everything the Pelicans got out of it? Like, if you have to give up young talented players and draft compensation, there's a good chance that those guys are going to turn into good basketball players and it's going to affect the outlook of that deal. But you've got to be aggressive to give yourself a chance to win

the championship. It's really unfortunate what happened to Quay Leonard. It's really unfortunate what happened to the Clippers, but every one of us would have done the exact same thing. Put yourself in those shoes. Summer of 2019, hey, all you got to do is give up Shay's good young player has potential to be really great, but not yet. And a bunch of draft compensation, you get Paul George and Kauai Leonard and really good role players of your overnight championship favorite. Yes or no? Every day in one of us is saying yes. Every damn one of us. Stop pretending you wouldn't. So that's where it gets silly in retrospect

to talk about it that way. All right, guys, that's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting the show. I hope you all have a great weekend. We'll be back next week on Monday. I'll do like a probably some kind of like predictions pod or something along those lines. And then we'll get into it with the instant reaction on Tuesday night after the first light of games.

As always, I appreciate you guys and I will see you then. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL, late night comedy guy. Not quite. On Humor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day

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