The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - NBA Team Rankings: Can Kevin Durant, Devin Booker & Bradley Beal win Suns a title?

Episode Date: October 9, 2023

Jason Timpf continues his ranking of the top 20 teams in the NBA heading into the 2023-24 season with No. 5, the Phoenix Suns. After acquiring Bradley Beal from the Wizards, and shipping Chris Paul off to the Warriors, there’s no doubt that the Suns are ALL IN with their new big 3. The only question is, is it enough to get them over the hump and deliver a championship to Phoenix? #volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Eligibility and deposit restrictions apply. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Saturday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great weekend so far. We are also live on Amp. So if you're watching on YouTube or listening on the podcast feed, Don't forget that Amp is the very first place that you guys can get these shows. We're continuing our power rankings.

Finally today, after a break to go over some preseason stuff and to have our special interview with Yoban Buha, which, by the way, Lakers fans, if you missed that, yesterday we recorded about 40 minutes or so with Yovan Buha. I went all over the Lakers training camp first week of practice and a bunch of specific questions surrounding the team, so make sure you guys check that show out. But we're back to our power rankings today with number five, the Phoenix Suns.

I've got a full season preview on Phoenix. and then I've got three mailback questions for the end of show as well. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the YouTube channel. Don't forget about our podcast feed under hoops tonight. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT. And I need more mailback questions. So keep dropping those in the YouTube comments.

All right. So a quick off-season recap. They lost DeAndreighton, Darius Basley, a lot of roster turnover here. Lost Bismack, Beambo, Tori Craig, Jacques Landale, Chris Paul, Cameron Payton. Terrence Ross, Landry Shammit, and T.J. Warren. And hang with me here. I'm going to give really quick breakdowns on each guy that they brought in. Grace and Allen, starting two guard for the bucks the last two years. Outstanding spot-up player last year, 1.26 points per possession on 230

possessions. Out of 126 players to log at least 200 spot-up possessions, Grayson Allen ranked second in efficiency there. 71 percent, effective field goal percentage on unguarded catch-and-shoot jump shot. So a guy you just can't really leave open. The nice thing with Grayson Allen is he can really stretch it out to like 26, 27 feet. So like there's guys that can space to the corners, then there's guys that can space above the break. And then there are guys that can space outside the above the brake line. Remember Ryan Anderson was one of those guys back in the day for the Rockets,

but the ability to consistently knock down shots a few feet behind the NBA line on the above the brake line is super valuable because it prevents that defensive player from being able to dig down to the nail. You guys have probably heard that before where you see a guy isolating a, uh, isolating a defender around the top of the key and you hear the announcer say like, you know, there's a guy hanging out at the nail. What that means is the guy who's guarding the guy on the wing is sagging way off of him down almost to where the free throw line is, which is where the little nail is that's stabbed into the hardwood right in front of the free throw line, right? So like,

one of the best ways to beat nail help is to have a guy who can consistently catch and shoot threes on the wing above the break. But the further you stretch him out behind the line, the harder it is for that guy to make that rotation. And that makes it so that you have all sorts of driving a lane going to that side. So, Grayson, that's where the, that's where Grayson Allen brings his best value as a pro at this point. Keita Bates job, he's a forward who started about half the season for the Spurs last year. He also shot 39% from three.

Bull, bowl, a 7 foot two inch center. He started 33 games for the magic last year. On a per 36 minute basis, 15 points, 10 rebounds, and two blocks. Again, that's per 36. Super talented, just still learning how to play the game at this point in his career. Dubanks. Super athletic backup center for the Blazers last year. He is undersized for his position, though. He was only about 6 foot 9. But he did make half of his jump shots last year. He only took 30, but he made 15 of them. I think he's going to be an interesting option for the Sons when they go

into more of a switching type of scheme, which we'll talk about later. Jordan Goodwin, a bench card for for the Wizards last year. I don't think he'll crack the rotation this year. Eric Gordon, I thought this was an underrated pickup. Eric shot well for the Clippers last year in the regular season. Struggled a little bit in the postseason, but again, their shot creation. to when Kauai Leonard got hurt and Paul George was out, so you're not getting as quality spot-up attempts, if that makes sense. Still a versatile fire hydrant of a defender. I like him better in a switching scheme because he can guard up a position,

doesn't navigate screens as well as he used to, but he still is a useful perimeter defender. He's really good at being physical without fouling and disrupting guys on their base so that they don't get lift into their shots. I think he's a good option to have as the fifth guy in any lineup, especially in closing groups. They might need to eventually upgrade that, we'll talk about in a minute, but I like him right now as an option and certainly as a value

pickup. Keon Johnson, a bench guard who came over in the 8-and-deal, don't expect him to play much either. Nasir Little, this is a team that's thin at forward, so I wouldn't be surprised if he plays more than you'd expect. A versatile bench forward has a surprising amount of polished attacking closeouts. Can actually put the ball on the floor a little bit and can shoot a little bit. He was 54% in effective field-go percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers last year, 51% effective field-go percentage on pull-up jump shots. He actually made 35 off-the-dribble jump shots. at over a point per possession. That's really impressive. Chimesey metu, a bench big who played 10 minutes a game for the Kings last year,

17 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes. You don't want Navi, a 6-9 forward from the nets last year. One of the best catch-and-shoot guys in the league. Last year, he shot 69% in effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers, 75% when he was unguarded, just deadly when he's open. He converted spotted possessions at 1.23 points per possession, which is off the charts good. There are two major acquisitions where Yusuf Nirkin.

Starting Center for the Blazers the last seven years. Believe it or not, Yusuf Dirkich is only 29 years old. He just turned 29. That was kind of a shock to me because it feels like he's been in the league forever. And then Bradley Beal. So what I want to do at this point is I want to take a deeper scout on both of those two players because obviously we're looking at this as Katie and Devin Booker, this third starter that's going to play the three that will see you who that ends up being. Or I guess it could technically be a four, but I would imagine it'll be a three, someone who's more of a perimeter defender. And then it's going to be essentially Yusuf Nerkich and Bradley Beal, bracketing all of that.

So let's talk about those two guys for a little bit. Now, after the use of Nerkich trade, there was a lot of pushback. And mainly just from a talent perspective, you're taking a player who is more consistently available in D'Andreit and it was a better defensive player. That's the angle that everyone's like, what are you guys doing? But if you zoom in on it a little bit, as I started asking people around the league who are more well connected to me, or more, more well-connected then me, I should say.

Most of them were saying the same thing, that the Sons were basically looking at this, looking at this as an upgrade in the form of short-roll passing. So, again, if you look at the Phoenix Sons with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Biel, just because of how dynamic all three of those guys are as pull-up shooters and his scores in general, you're going to see a lot of really aggressive pick-and-roll coverages. What does that mean? That means that when you run your two-man game and you bring the guy up to set the screen or if there's a Nirkage dribble handoff or whatever it might be,

chances are the screen defender is going to have to show high on every single one of those, meaning the screen defender is going to have to come out to the three-point line to dissuade the pull-up three. And in a lot of cases, you're going to see teams straight out blitz, meaning they're going to aggressively show on the pick and roll and double team and try to get the ball out of KD or Devin Booker or Bradley Bills' hand. So what happens when you do that? It opens up four-on-three opportunities. Not just that, but we're going to talk a little bit about it in a little bit,

but in dribble handoff situations, there are four and threes that can materialize too when the screen defender shows if NERCHA hangs onto the ball, right? In those four-on-three situations, you just have to be really quick processing the floor and making a decision. If you beat it quickly, you can get an easy basket. If you're just a step slow, they might be able to rotate out of it. Now, one of the things I'm doing this year for all of you guys is it'll be on TikTok and on Instagram.

So you can follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT. That's where I usually talk the game, so to speak, and I'll tweet out, links and show announcements and stuff. Instagram I've been trying to use for more footage stuff, and I've been doing the same for TikTok as well. So look up Jason Timp on Instagram or on TikTok, and you'll see some examples. But this morning I put out over a minute of clips of Yusuf Nurkich

making plays out of the short roll. And he just is, he's just got like a kind of a knack for it. He had really good chemistry hitting the cutter out of the weakside corner for lobs and for drop-off passes, even when you'd see the rotation, where the defense would rotate to the guy in the corner, he would identify that and make the read to the wing instead. Really high-level stuff. He's just better at it than D'Andra Aiton.

And so I really do think it's going to make them harder to guard. The other thing I noticed, too, is, you know, in switches, and I put a couple examples of this as well, you'll see in that same clip, but there are examples where teams would switch the Damien Lillard, use of Nurk's pick and roll. He just quickly dives down to the post, makes himself available almost every time he gets double-team,

because he's going against a smaller guard, and then he just makes the kickout pass to whoever's open. He's just really, really good at it. And then, you know, I went back and I was looking with the way that synergy works in order to track down role man possessions. I kind of have to go through assists. So I was filtering through basically every assist

that Yusuf Nurkich had last year. And as I was looking through, I came across a ton of dribble handoff stuff. And he just kind of has a knack for identifying when dribble handoffs materialize and kickout situation. So, like, if you have to be able to, to catch on the wing because Dame works in pick and roll and kicks it back out to him, he'll just catch and then quick go into a dribble handoff with Anthony Simons on the other side

of the floor or vice versa, right? It's kind of like that Draymond Green dribble handoff type of thing. And he just kind of has an act for it. He's a really good screener. And that can also materialize in four on threes. Not only does, because again, I've talked about this with the dribble handoff before, but the dribble handoff is a lot harder to guard than the pick and roll when you have an offensively skilled big because it's much harder for the screen defender to show. because the screen defender might be able to show and recover back to the role man if the role man's not super offensively gifted and is slow to make decisions, right?

But in a dribble handoff situation, he's already got the ball. So it can be even harder to get back into the picture. Like fake the dribble handoff, go to the rim. If my screen defender's showing, when I go, I'm just right past him downhill. It's like a four on three with skipping the pocket pass, which just buys you even more time to make that read. I think you're going to see a lot of use of Nerkitz dribble handoff stuff as a way to kind of like facilitate easier opportunities for both the ball handlers and for Nerkich himself.

He's also a much better spot-up threat than D'Andre Aten was. He was up over a point per possession 1.03, which is above average. Aten was below a point per possession on super low volume. And Nurgich, I think, logged well over 100 spot-up possessions. So like he's just a guy who can actually space the floor a little bit. when he doesn't have the ball in any capacity or is not setting a screen. And so I think that brings value. He actually took 2.33s per game last year, which was a career high,

and made over 36% of them. So I look at it just as a big offensive upgrade. Like obviously, defensively, he's a step down for Aiton, but on the offensive end of the floor, it's going to make Phoenix much harder to guard. And we're going to talk about this later when we get to the mailbag because there's a mailback question surrounding the Lakers and what type of player they should target in the trade market. And I'm going to have a similar take there in the sense that, like,

identify what you're good at. and lean into that. Because what you want to do is be better at that than anybody you face and have that be the thing that gets you over the top, right? If you try to play someone else at their game, you're probably going to lose if you're not as good at it as they are. And so I like the idea of leaning into offense. Be truly and completely unguardable.

Frank Vogel is going to find a way to get you to guard well enough, and maybe that's your best ceiling. And so, again, like I was critical of the Aiton trade initially when it happened. Now having done more research, I understand it better. I'm still kind of on the fence about it just from a talent perspective with Aiton. But I can see the thought process, and I really do want to see it in practice and actually see it on the floor in these games before we actually take a real hard stance on it. And again, Vogel is a defensive genius.

I was so impressed by Vogel as a defensive coach when he was with the Lakers. I think Sons fans are really going to like him on that end. His weakness is offensive organization, but you've got so much offensive IQ on the floor. just with those four guys that I don't think that's going to be an issue. So it's kind of the perfect coach for this particular situation. It's kind of similar to having Tom Brady, essentially being the brains of your offense while, you know, Bill Belichick focuses on the defensive end. It's kind of like a smart pairing in that sense. And you got to look at the personnel here because, like, Frank Vogel is traditionally like a drop coverage coach who prefers

to guard actions two on two, meaning when there's a ball screen, Vogel does not want to help if he can avoid it. And he wants to try to get the guard to chase over the top and funnel downhill into the rim protector. But typically that requires a great rim protector. And Frank Vogel's had great rim protectors in his career. Guys like Roy Hibbert, guys like Anthony Davis, you get the point. So like obviously this team is different. And so I'll be really interested to see how Vogel changes his schematic approach with this particular team. Because the way I look at it, I think they should be trying to mimic Denver. I think that they should try to use their pick and roll defense similar to the way Denver does by bringing Nerkich higher in ball screens

because you got to identify like with the offensive-minded guys like Brad Bleel, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant, they probably aren't going to chase over screens super well. Obviously Frank's going to ask him to, but I think, I would imagine he's aware that he's not going to get the same type of commitment fighting over the top of screens that he did from Dennis Schroeder and Alex Caruso when he was with the Lakers, right? So like my guess is he's going to offer more high help. So he's going to have Nurkich come up high. This is what the Nuggets do with Yokic, for the most part. They also ran some deeper drop, but for the most part, the nuggets ran throughout last season a high drop with Nicole Yokic. Then they ask Aaron Gordon to help out of

the weak side corner basically is the low man, meaning like he's keeping tabs on the guy in the weak side corner, but also offering help at the rim as an athlete. That's a role that Kevin Durant can excel in. So that's kind of the way I'd like to see them kind of set up their defense is basically against bad pull-up jump-shooting teams. And this is how Denver got away with it. Like, Denver ran their deep drop against the Lakers and against the timber wolves and against the heat

because of the fact that they didn't have high-level pull-up jump shooting, right? But then against Phoenix, they were bringing Yokic up higher, right? That's the kind of decision that Vogel's going to make. He's going to look at the situation like, okay, this particular matchup, they don't have great pull-up shooting.

We can sit in a deeper drop. guard these actions two on two stay at a rotation. Okay, now we're playing, you know, Steph Curry or one of the other great pull-up jump shooters in the league. Okay, we're bringing Nurkits up high. We're sitting in, uh, and we're kind of showing or in a high drop in these situations and asking Kevin to Ray it to kind of help on the backside defending the action three on two. I think that's kind of the way that they're going to try to defend and then essentially just have really smart rotations on the back end. And that's where accountability is going to become a big deal, especially with the stars on the roster.

And lastly, with the Nerkich thing, he's just much more willing to buy into a role on a team than Dianjah Aiton is. And so, again, like even if we look at the relative ceilings, who's more likely to reach their relative ceiling with this team? Probably Nerkich. And so I think that's another potential upside here. Bradley Biel. He averaged 23 points, four rebounds, and five assists in 50 games for the Wizards last year. 59% true shooting, which is the third highest mark of his career. Shot over 50% from the field.

that was a big indicator there. 668 points on 659 pick and rolls. That's only 1.01 points per possession or the 62nd percentile. We'll talk about efficiency in a minute because I have a theory there. 47 points on 45 post-ups. He's a good post-up guard. 1.04 points per possession. That's 57th percentile.

210 points on 238 isos. That's 0.88 points per possession, which is in the 39th percentile. Now, when we're looking at efficiency there, again, you got to remember it's a bad team. He's taking a lot of shots. He's getting the brunt of the defensive game planning, and he's passing to lesser players than some of the better teams that you see in the league. So just keep that in mind. Excuse me, I expect Bradley Beal to be a very efficient score and shot creator for the Sons this year. He was an excellent spot-up player, 1.16 points per possession.

He shot 57% and effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jump shots. 49% effective field goal percentage on pull-up jump shots. Again, that's not great. That's good, not great. But again, you got to factor in the type of shots that he had to take with this particular. particular team. He was one of the best rim finishing guards in the league, and this is an exciting thing for the Suns. 3.5 restricted area makes per game, which is awesome. And then 72% shooting in the restricted area, which is like unbelievably good. That's like LeBron Janus territory, not quite,

but close in that territory. Those guys are around 75%. For a guard to be up over 70% is basically unheard of. And so Bradley Beal, I think that's going to be an interesting way for him to impact winning on this team is to apply rim pressure, which is something that the team can struggle with outside to Devin Booker. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way,

this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes

of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.

So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, Follow at Clifford and a TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?

Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Then you're finishing that sentence.

Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's talk about the concept of diminishing returns for a minute. So those of you guys have been listening to the show for a while, I've heard me say this about many different teams,

but it's a consistent talking point I've brought up with this particular Sun's roster. When you have responsibilities that have to be filled on the floor, stars take up huge chunks of those responsibilities. So let's look at the offensive end and you look at like shot creation, responsibilities, play finishing responsibilities out of like the short roll, pick and roll type type, type, and stuff. And then like spot up play, like attacking closeouts, you know, driving kick basketball. There's all these responsibilities that have to get filled. And so when you drop a, and I'm not even talking about the defensive end yet, when you drop a star into the equation, he takes up so much of

the shot creation responsibilities, which is great. But then you had a second guy in there and now it's like great, okay, now we have two great guys that can create shots. Okay, now we're adding a third dude who can create shots. That's awesome. But like how good are we in play finishing and how good are we in spot up situations, right? And then the defensive end of the floor. Like a lot of times a guy, an offensive player, will take a smaller role offensively, right? Like I'm only going to operate in spot up situations off the ball or I'm only going to operate in the short role. But on the defensive end, I'm like your best point of attack defender. I'm your best pick and roll screen defender or whatever it is. Like you have bigger responsibilities on that end. And if Devin Booker,

Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal just focus on shot creation, you're going to see a lot of responsibilities on the floor that don't get filled. And so, again, like, this team, I'm going to talk about this more when we get later, but it gets to the end of the show, but when we talk about the big picture, but this team does have a wide range of potential outcomes based on just the level of commitment from these guys. So, like, if Bradley Beale commits to defense and operates off the ball a lot and attacks the rim a lot with force, then he can massively raise the ceiling.

by filling areas of the responsibilities on the floor that need to be filled, right? If KD becomes one of the best help defenders in the league, like I talked about, that could be the difference between them having a functional defense and not having a functional defense. KD's rebounding has been down in recent years. Obviously, you're going to need KD to rebound a lot. You know, these are things that are going to be worth watching over the course of the season. Devin Booker, like he's turned himself into a slightly above average point of attack defender.

He might have to go up a level from there, potentially, right? especially if you end up going offense at the three instead of going with someone like Josh Okoji. So, like, each of the stars has to view the depth of star talent as a means with which to devote resources to dirty work. And if they do those things, I think they're going to hit the high end of their probability. All right, let's look at the depth chart really quick. At guard, Devin Booker, Bradley Beale, Grayson Allen, Eric Gordon, Damian Lee, Jordan, Goodwin, and Keon Johnson. Really deep there. That's, like, five playable, legitimately playable guards, four of which are very good.

At the forward position, a little thin. Kevin Durant, you know, obviously one of the best players in the league, but after that it's all bench forwards. It's Nassir Little, Josh Okoji, Uta want Nabi, and Kita Bates job. At center, Yusuf Nurchich, Drew, Eubanks, and Bull, that's a decent rotation right there. The clear weak point of the roster is at Ford. You don't have a starting caliber player that you can slot between Bradley Biel and Devin Booker and Katie and Yusuf Nurchich.

And there's a bunch of options there, right? Like you can go with Joshi Kogi as a point of attack guy, He's one of the better point of attack defenders in the league, right? You can go with Eric Gordon for shooting and then kind of lean more in a switching scheme because Eric Gordon can switch on to forwards. You can go Grayson Allen for that above the break shooting that I was referencing earlier. You'd want Nabie is deadly, especially out of the corner, so you can go with him too. But each of those guys has a red flag.

Each of those guys has a weakness, right? Like a Koji is an extremely limited spot-up threat. Eric Gordon is older at this phase and not as good defensively as it used to be. Grace and Allen obviously is undersized and has some limitations there. You-to-Wa-Nobie is a little upright and can struggle to defend on the perimeter. So each of those guys has kind of like a big red flag. And so don't be surprised if over the course of the season, if the Sons are one of the teams that gets mentioned a lot in conversations

for a versatile point-of-attack defender that can shoot. Just keep an eye on that over the course of the season. So on offense, and we've already talked a lot about this with the Nerkich thing, but, you know, I know this is not exactly a hot take, but I think the Sons are going to score a shit ton of points. It's not just that they have three shot creators. They have three highly versatile shot creators. All three of them, Bradley Biel, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant can all run pick and roll.

They can all torch bigs on switches on perimeter ISOs, right? They all can punish smaller guards in the post. They all can play off ball. They all can pass the basketball. Yusuf Nurkich as that dribble handoff folk room we talked about earlier and with his ability to pass and with his ability to punish switches in the post and his ability to space the floor.

They're just going to be really, really difficult to guard. The biggest question mark offensively is going to be that fifth starter. Because the Ekoji problem is, is like if you keep him on the floor, your defense goes up a big level, right? Because Josh Ekoji is such an outstanding point of attack defender. But the downside is,

he's so weak as a spot-up player that you allow other teams to defend your actions three on two. And I don't care how good Devin, Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant are, they become infinitely more guardable when you can sacrifice a third defender into that action and not have to worry about giving up much at all of anything on the weak side. And so that to me is going to be something to keep an eye on over the course of the season. I would probably go all in on offense. Again, like referencing that idea that we talked about earlier and being like kind of leaning into your strengths, this has the potential

to be one of the great offensive teams of all time. And so I would probably go with Eric Gord. as the starting three. I consider you to want Nabi if you're having issues with rebounding. I'm sure they'll try a bunch of different guys in that position. And like I said, I wouldn't be surprised if they try to upgrade it over the course of the season. Again, look out for use of Nerkich as a fulcrum. Look out for more dribble handoffs than you're used to seeing from the Sons. And again, like he just is a really good screener and scoring threat.

So I think that's going to make their ball screen game more dynamic. One last thing to watch offensively, hunting mid-range shots. It's fine. It's the identity of this team as long as you're making them. In the regular season last year, KD shot over 60% from the field on mid-range pull-up jump shots, just from the mid-range, over 60%. And that's including the Nets and the Sun's regular season reps. Like, that's over 1.2 points per possession. That's awesome. And that works.

The problem is, is as a team, the Sun's shot just 46% on pull-up 2s against Denver. That's 0.92 points per shot. the difference? What's the difference to be to a 120 offensive rating and a 92 offensive rating? Completely untenable, the defense has to do something. We can live with that shit. That's the difference, right? KD himself was only 42% on pull-up twos in the playoff or in the Denver series. That's 0.84 points per shot. The coaches are just going to live with that. As a result, the Sun's not just a 110.6 offensive rating in the series against the Nuggets. That's just not close to good enough.

especially when you fancy yourself an offensive juggernaut. So one or two things needs to happen. Like either KD needs to start making those shots in the playoffs, which we've had two post seasons in a row where he hasn't. So he either needs to just start making them because those are fluky series. Or as a team, they've got to adjust their shot selection and try to identify things that are going to be more efficient on a per possession basis in the postseason.

More pull-up threes, right? More attacking the rim and trying to draw foul so you can set your defense, that sort of thing. On the defensive end, again, we talked about it earlier, but the Denver scheme is something I'd consider. So, like, bringing Nurkich high-end drop against better pull-up jump shooters, offering a lot of weakside help with Kevin Durant. When Drew Eubanks is out there, because he's a better athlete,

I wouldn't be surprised if you saw them do more switching. You can imagine a lineup with Booker, Beal, and KD and U-Banks, and then, like, Eric Gordon. And then that just being, like, five guys that you feel generally comfortable switching with, as long as you help on the weak side and rotate out of it. So that's something I'd look for. And then defensive rebounding is just going to be a key all season. Like how well as a team do they work on tracking down and hunting rebounds down?

They got absolutely murdered on the glass by Denver. And that's just something you've got to be able to contend with if you're going to get out of the Western Conference. In summary, I think this team has the widest range of outcomes between like the worst case scenario and the best case scenario, even if we factor in good health. There's a version of this story where they're healthy all year and they lose in the first or second round and hover around the bottom half of the standings. There's a version of this where they kick everyone's ass and win the title. And it really just comes down to whether or not the stars are dedicated to the dirty work,

which I believe they will be. So I lean more towards the high end of that, which is why I have them as high as I do. But again, it's going to come down to the little things. And I talked about this earlier, but with parity in the league, again, all these teams are really good for different reasons. The Sons have all this offensive firepower. The Lakers have the best defense in the league, in my opinion, best defensive player in Anthony Davis.

obviously I think they have some wrinkles they got to sort out in their playoff defense. The Denver Nuggets have the best playoff offense in the league. They're just unguardable on the offensive end in the playoffs. Milwaukee Bucks have this new Dame Janus thing, but they're weak in point of attack defense. You know, the Boston Celtics are poised to be a truly elite defense, but they still struggle with top end shot creation. So each team in that list has strengths and weaknesses, right? And it's going to come down to the little things.

Like, it's not just Phoenix's offense versus the Lakers defense. It's, are the Lakers deeply committed to those details? Is Darwin-Ham going to be able to make the necessary adjustments? Is Frank Vogel going to be able to make the necessary adjustments? Like, these are the kinds of things over the course of the playoffs that are going to make the difference between teams that are relatively close. Like, I have the Suns at 5, but they're not demonstrably worse than the number one team. Like, they're not.

They're all on the same tier. Like, I'm splitting hairs with these rankings. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Phoenix beat all four of them. Like Golden State is clearly a little level below these guys. The other five are all on the same tier, in my opinion. I just have the Suns at five based on basically my concern over whether or not they're going to be willing to win in rock fights, which we will find out. I think there's a lot of, again, I've seen a lot of Suns fans like, oh, we took two games off of the Nuggets. Yeah, you did.

But you got your ass kicked in the other four games. Like literally got your ass kicked. Worse than any of the other teams. And in the two games you won, it required like all-time great shooting from Devin Booker. Like two of the greatest shooting performances you will ever see in the NBA playoffs. To barely scrape out two wins

before you got your ass kicked in the other four games. So I think they're further away than people think. At least they were last year. And we'll see this year how committed they are to those details. All right, let's move on to the mail. back. I saw in the Yovam Buha video that a lot of people were complaining about us talking about the Lakers. Again, I kind of give a speech like this every year, but a couple things. Obviously, I have a job to do, and that is to generate revenue, otherwise I don't get a job, right? And so

I have a certain obligation to cover the teams that have the largest fan bases. So it's going to be a lot of Lakers. It's going to be a lot of Warriors. It's going to be a lot of Celtics. It's going to be a lot of and heat and things along those lines, right? But the reality is, is like, I go five or six days a week. Like, we do over three hours of NBA content every single week. And so even if an hour and a half of it is Lakers and Warriors, which it won't be, but like, let's just say a third of it is Lakers and Warriors. And let's say the Lakers and the Warriors are in a lot of the titles and thumbnails and

stuff, that doesn't mean that that's all we're doing. I cover the entire leak. Those of you guys who follow the show more diligently on a daily basis know that. And so a couple things. One of the things we're going to be doing this year is we're going to use, we're going to put out multiple videos. So for instance, like if I have a show in the regular season that covers five games, we'll have the full show, but then we'll break off the portions of it that are the other

team so that you guys can find it more easily. But again, like, you got to remember, like, most of the NBA shows don't go daily. Like, they'll hit all the teams, but they'll go two or three times a week, right? That's the advantage of going as often as we go is I can cover the super popular teams very diligently, but still offer pretty well-rounded coverage of the rest of the league. So just stay glued to the feeds. You'll see it parsed out better. If you go to the YouTube channel and you see a 30-minute video and it's got LeBron's face on it,

or it's got Steph Curry's face on it, chances are I'm not talking LeBron or Steph for 30 minutes. It's probably LeBron or Steph for 10 minutes and then 20 minutes on the rest of the league. So again, like there's a business reality to the way this show is organized, but I do truly take it seriously that we cover the entire NBA. And I'm going to put in an enormous amount of work this year to make sure these other teams get covered. You just got to understand that we have a marketing plan, which is going to market to large fan bases because that's where the money is. But we are going to try to do a better job

in making sure that the videos are easier to find for the other teams as well. All right, three mailback questions. What's up, Jay? Dig the show big time. With ring culture being such a huge swing factor in players' legacies, how and where will Dane be placed if he wins a chip with Janus? Katie's chips are somewhat still in question to some because it wasn't his team. I'm curious how it will be viewed and what a chip could mean to his overall place in history. I don't think he's ever going to move, you know, into serious conversations with any of the guys that we think of as best players in this era. I mean, he's made one first team all-N-B-A. That's a huge gap between him and some of his peers.

He's kind of always just been considered a fringe all-star, like, or a superstar. Like, he's a superstar, but like in the bottom end of that tier. And so, I mean, obviously becoming a champion would greatly improve where he lands all time. But I think he's a long, long way away from being in an, into any serious conversations with the guys at the top of the league. But also, a lot of it has to do with how it goes down. Like, if Dame shoots 42% in the postseason and struggles and they barely get it done, and Janus is a superhero, it's not going to look as good as if he makes a ton of big shots

and puts the team on his back in crunch time and kind of is clearly the one that puts them over the top. And so really that question has a bunch of layers to it. But the short version is, no matter what happens, he's not going to enter into any really serious conversations with the championship this year. Next question. Funny enough, it's a more pointed version of the question you asked Yovan. In regards to the Lakers' need for a shotmaker and or elite perimeter defender, let's say the Bulls blow it up this year. Should the Lakers pursue Zach Levine as a shotmaker or Alex Crusoe as an elite perimeter defender?

Also, what other players do you think the Lakers should keep an eye on? So, basically, I talked about this with Yovon, but like, if you can, get a shopmaker that's a true top-tier shopmaker, someone like Kyrie Irving, then yeah, you got, you got to go for it. Like if the Mavericks just completely bought him out this year and Kyrie asked for a trade and the Lakers have the assets to make it happen, then you do something like that, obviously, because it just, he's such a top-tier shot creator. It would alleviate all of the Lakers' issues on that end and make them a much more versatile team, right? No different than Dame joining the Milwaukee Bucks, right? But if it's anybody less than that,

than that, I think you run the risk of shifting towards an identity that you're not going to be as good at as the best teams in the league. So like, given the choice between Levine or Caruso, I take Caruso. Why? Because this is a Lakers team that desperately needs a perimeter defender that is a functional offensive player. And that's what Alex Caruso is. And like, that could put the Lakers over the top into being a truly elite top tier defense. Whereas right now, they're capable of that, but they're missing some of the top perimeter talent that they need to make that happen, right? Especially with the loss of Dennis Schroeder. So, you know, given the choice between those two guys, like, that's kind of like a perfect

example of what I'm talking about. At the deadline, if the Lakers have access to a top-tier shot creator, you go get it. But if you can't, then I would go after an elite perimeter defender that rounds out your starting lineup. Last mail-back question. I hear a lot of players and coaches talk about one of the main things they place an emphasis on is accountability. Are they talking about getting star players to buy in or what do they mean by that? Accountability is basically just like everybody in the entire locker room being bought in

to what the expectations are from the staff. So like usually in a training camp, I mean, obviously I haven't been through an NBA training camp, but I've been through the college basketball version of training camp and, you know, like the serious programs that you go to, like the last school I played at, like you literally go up into a classroom and they hand out binders. and the binders have like a clear breakdown of what expectations are off the court, a clear breakdown of expectations in terms of showing up to practice on time and what, you know, like specific team rules. And then like you go through it and it's like then there's five or six things

that the coach wants to set as like essentially your core principles. And then like then it has all your plays in it, like as a playbook and your base defensive concepts. And like essentially there's expectations laid out from day one. And then from there, it's about holding people accountable to those expectations. Famously, that last year that I was playing at ACU, and when the coach handed it all that stuff, we had another meeting two days later in the same classroom to go over one of our defensive concepts and like half the players forgot to bring their binder.

And we immediately just went down to the floor and ran all day. Because that was an example of him, like, trying to from day one, set an expectation for what the rules are and make sure that the, team understands that if they don't live up to those expectations, then there's going to be repercussions. That is accountability. Accountability is making sure that people understand if they do not obey whatever the rules are, whatever the expectations are, that there are consequences, whether that's getting called out in front of your team, whether that's having to run, whether that's a suspension or a fine, like whatever that is. At the pro level, it's probably different than it was in college,

but like accountability is making sure that everybody in the roster sticks to those principles. So for instance, like let's say Frank Vogel wants to set, you know, a defensive identity from day one in Sun's camp. Like, he can't make Josh Okoji run over screens and scream at him every time he dies on a screen, but then let Bradley Beal get away with it. It's got to be down the line accountability. Otherwise, it sets a culture that the stars don't have to obey, which is going to, you know, kind of foment a bunch of other issues. So again, accountability is a vitally important part of any championship journey because if you don't have expectations and you don't stick to them, you're never going to achieve your full potential as a basketball team.

All right, guys, that is all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you supporting the show. We're going to be back on Monday with a breakdown of the preseason games from this weekend. And then we'll get back to number four on the season previews on Tuesday. And then we'll do some more preseason breakdown on Wednesday. I appreciate you guys. And I will see you on Monday. The volume.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite, unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced game. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast, Superhuman, documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

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