The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Playoff superstar TIERS + how REAL is Atlanta Hawks win streak? | NBA Reaction
Episode Date: April 5, 2026Jason goes through his top three tiers of NBA stars heading into the playoffs including Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers), Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC Thunder), ...Steph Curry (Golden State Warriors), Jaylen Brown (Boston Celtics), Kevin Durant (Houston Rockets), LeBron James, and more. Then he discusses Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and the Atlanta Hawks’ hot streak and breaks down how real it is. All lines presented by Hard Rock Bet. #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Welcome to Hips tonight here at The Volume.
Happy Thursday, everybody.
Hope all of you guys are having an incredible week.
I have a jam-pack show for you guys today.
The Atlanta Hawks won for the 17th time in the last 19 games.
And got a couple of big ones as they beat the Celtics
and then dominated the magic in Orlando.
We're going to do a little bit of a deep dive.
into the Atlanta Hawks and what's been driving their success as of late.
Then at the tail end of the show,
I really wanted to take time to dig into what the superstar slash star tiers
look like as we head into the postseason run.
So again, strictly looking at players that will be a factor in this year's playoff run
and where they kind of stand in the league as we head into that run.
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Last minute at least,
If you guys want to get mailbag questions in, make sure you drop them in our YouTube comments
and we'll get to them in mailbags throughout the rest of the season. And yes, I did cut my hair.
It's shocking, I know. Trust me, it's just as shocking for me as it is for you guys.
Any of you people have ever grown out your hair before, it's, it comes with all of this other
random bullshit you have to deal with every day. So like it's been, it's kind of like a lifestyle
in a weird way. And so it feels very strange. But I'm getting used to it.
It's just, just take it one day at a time. Okay, guys, you're just as shocked as I am.
Let's talk some basketball.
Let's get into this Atlanta Hawks run.
Again, they've won for the 17th time in the last 19 games.
I had been a little skeptical during the run
because they had played an exceptionally light schedule for the most part.
But their last two wins have been super impressive.
A big win at home over the Boston Celtics,
where they went up by 21 points in the fourth quarter,
and then followed last night by an absolute thrashing of the magic in Orlando.
The Celtics game, big run to start the second half.
first half was very back and forth.
In that second half, the important context here is that Boston was without their two best centers.
But regardless of what centers Boston had available, they run a ton of deep drop coverage,
regardless of whether it's Keda, Muzovich, or the guys who played in that particular game,
like Luca Garza, for example.
They run a ton of deep drop.
And they generally made up for their lack of versatile bigs by just keeping them around the basket.
Deep drop, helping a lot when they're in offball situations.
It's a huge part of why Boston leads the league and opponent points in the paint.
They're the only team in the league that allows fewer than 40 points in the paint per game.
But that comes at the cost of them being pretty vulnerable to shooting fives.
That's been something that's happened all season long.
And Yenka Ongu in that game just absolutely fried the Celtics over and over again,
popping out of ball screens, spacing to the corner.
And it caused real problems for the Celtics as the Hawks went on their second half run.
And they defended extremely well.
They held Pritchard and White to just 20.
points on 26 shots. Jalen Brown put up numbers, but he was horribly inefficient in that game.
It's kind of like the opposite of the second half of that thunder game where he was just
forcing the issue on his drives over and over again. And there were some impressive ones in there
because Jalen's so damn good at driving the basketball. There were a lot of bad forces at the
rim was far from Jalen's best floor game. And give the Hawks credit. They made things tough on the guards
and they did a great job swarming Jalen Brown's drives. And we're going to talk about it when we
start talking big picture, but their ball pressure goes a long way to making ball handlers
uncomfortable, causing them to force the issue and rush things. That's one of the big values
of ball pressure. I thought that was a really nice win against the Celtics. And then the Orlando
game last night was interesting on several levels. Jaylon Johnson continues to absolutely dominate
the Palo Boncaro matchup. It's a, in general, Atlanta's a tough matchup for Orlando because
they can confront a lot of Orlando size, but they're also faster. And when you can
kind of like mitigate their ability to bully you, but then also just run circles around them.
It can cause major problems in an individual matchup.
And specifically Palo and Jalen, Palo can't score on him one-on-one.
And Jalen can more effectively shoot over the top of him right now,
which is allowing him to score over the top and get him out of position on drives where he can draw some fouls.
The magic also weren't switching with Wendell Carter Jr. and their ball screens and their handoffs,
which is something they've done all season, more than basically.
anyone, which is, I've talked about this. Like, that's why Wendell Carter Jr. leads the league
in isolations defended. They usually switch with their five and they just weren't doing it
against Atlanta. My guess is Jamal Mosley was trying to stay attached to Anya Kangu to prevent him
from getting open threes. But I thought there was a nonsensical defensive game plan because
switching is actually the best way to neutralize a popping big that basically forces you to attack
in ISO rather than giving up easy little kickbacks.
and things like that.
Or you run into this issue when you don't switch and you stay home.
So like if Wendell Carter Jr. is just basically gluing up to Anneka Kangu,
now you're asking your perimeter defenders to chase Atlanta's guards through two guys.
As they're trying to run through action,
they're navigating around Wendell and Anyaqa as they're trying to get back in front
of Nikiel Alexander Walker or get back in front of C.J. McCollum.
And Nikiel Alexander Walker in particular just fried the magic in this.
game, 32 points on 16 shots. Not only did he kill in the action, just kind of circling around
a congou as he was able to get downhill consistently, but also all that inverted stuff that
Jaylon Johnson runs where he has guard screen for him. Nikiel got Palo Boncaro switched on him a lot.
And he was really doing damage to Palo either just like catching him helping off too far in spot
up situations or beating him off the dribble. The keel had like literally one of the nastiest spin
moves I've ever seen attacking Palo off the left wing. He drove to the right and did like a lot of
spin moves will come in like two phases where there'll be like a pound dribble and it'll be kind of like
a slow motion spin. He just did like this whirling dervish lightning spin that just completely
dusted Palo. Palo was very bad defensively in this one. But Nikiel completely toasted him with
that spin move. He was able to get to the basket for the layup. It was completely disgusting.
And Orlando just decomposed in this game. It was over by half time. So not only of the Hawks gone,
and two in their last 19 games.
But now they have a couple of dominant wins
over a good team in Orlando
and a great team in Boston
to add some legitimacy
to the run that they've been on.
They've had the second best record in the league
since February 22nd.
They're 17 and 2.
Only San Antonio has been better at 18 and 2.
They're third in offense,
second in defense,
sixth in offensive rebounding,
sixth and defensive rebounding,
and they've been dominating the margins.
They're leading the league
and points off of turnovers in the span
at 24 per game.
That's a margin of plus 7.4 over their opponents, over their opponents and points off
of turnovers per game, plus 3.9 points per game and second chance points and plus 5.7 points
per game and fast break points.
Obviously, there's some overlap there with the turnovers, but that's a lot of margin every
single night, which is buying margin for their offense.
We'll talk about their half court offense here in just a second.
Overall, in offense, they have six guys averaging double figures, each kind of doing it
in their own way. Jalen Johnson in the span, 21 points, nine rebounds and eight assists per game.
We've talked over the course of the season that like my main concern with Jalen before I can
really buy into him big picture as a prospect is can he develop some form of reliable
half court offensive initiation, a way to break the defense down when they aren't able to get out
in transition. And it's really materializing in two ways. We've talked about the inverted action a lot
the season. I won't dwell there too long, but that's one of the most common plays that we've seen
around the league for big ball handlers, right?
You just have guards go set screens.
It inverts everything.
So the guy who's guarding the bigger player suddenly has to navigate a screen,
which is something that they're not comfortable with.
And you're asking guards to function as helpers in screens,
which they don't often do.
And so it creates all sorts of openings where it's like,
okay, if the guard hedges,
now the guard setting the screen can easily slip out and create an open three
or with a guy like Dyson Daniels slipping into the middle of the floor
for little floaters and stuff like that.
Or if you switch, suddenly you've got mismatches on both sides of the screen.
And if you don't switch, if the guard stays home on the guard setting the screen,
then all of a sudden, you know, Jalen can easily get downhill to his right hand.
And, you know, this is something again, we see all around the league.
It kind of initiated originally with guys like LeBron and Janus over the course of the last half decade,
LeBron running a ton of inverted action with Austin Reeves,
Janus running a ton of inverted action with like Gary Trent and A.J. Green.
obviously Nicola Yokic is one of the main guys that we think of with inverted action.
Yokic is a little more different because he's not a slasher.
But we've seen so many of these big forwards that run inverted action as slasgers
because they're at their best when they get downhill.
And, you know, guys like Jalen and LeBron and Janus have elite playmaking ability.
That's the big thing that's kind of held Palo back as he's been unable to really turn that
into a playmaking advantage for him.
But that's an action that Jalen's been able to run effectively, that he's been able to mimic
from some of the other big slashing forwards around the league.
And the second piece of it is post-scoring.
Jalen's just got a lot better at like those little turnaround jump shots over either shoulder,
the kind of getting into the defender's chest and drawing fouls.
Like Jalen's just gotten better as a post-scorer,
which has given him the ability to, again, like we know his,
his like fundamental strength that he's awesome at is he's just this great downhill athlete
that can finish at the rim, who also is a great passer, right?
But like, again, if you run the inverted action and it leads to,
switches or in any situation where defenders
able to generally stay in front
of Jalen, it's going to force him to
score over the top. And he's just starting
to develop a pretty
well-rounded post-scoring
game. Nikiel Alexander Walker
has just been a revelation this season.
Test him into his work ethic. He's gone
from being like a 3-and-D guard to
like a legitimately awesome scoring
guard. It gets to the rim a ton five times
per game again for a guy with his usage that's super
impressive. He's become a legitimate
movement shooter. He's shooting 30
37% this year on threes coming off of off ball screens and 48% on transition threes,
which is a different type of movement three.
Transition threes are a little easier because you tend to have your momentum going towards
the basket, but it's still the same concept where you're running full speed and getting
your feet set when you're on the move.
And he's really improved as an improvisational score.
So like stuff in the mid range, off the dribble, pull up jump shot type stuff, counter
moves, like that nasty spin move we talked about.
That's all that like improvisational scoring that is usually the difference between you
being able to get to 15, 17 points in a game to like that 18 to 22 points in the game for
these like role player type scores. You've got to have some ability to score improvisationally.
And the Kills really started to add that to his game. C.J. McCullough may not be the same
CJ he was in Portland, but he brings a lot of the same refined skill guard stuff to the table
that he's had in his entire career. And it's for a team that kind of needs a player who can do that
stuff. If you take Trey Young out of the equation, obviously Trey Young is very much a heliocentric style
a player, but you still need that kind of skill. You still need a guy who can run ball screens
and make simple reads, but also be able to score if the defense is running variations of drop,
where the onus is on the guard to score the basketball. And what CJ does is C.J. brings that
to the table, but in the flow of the offense without really strangling the basketball
and disrupting rhythm for other players, which makes it really valuable for Atlanta. The Hawks play
so fast in transition, but also in the half court. They run a lot of action side to side. They get a lot of
attacks in on each possession.
So having multiple guards on the floor at all times who can attack off of a screen,
an off ball screen or set a screen for Jalen Johnson, but be a threat slipping out of it in various ways,
that's super valuable.
And Yika Kongu's floor spacing.
I can't say enough about this.
Again, there's a huge difference between being a pick and pop big and a pick and pop big that teams
refuse to leave open.
Again, like we talked about, I really do believe Jamal Mosley just discarded his main defensive
of scheme because he was terrified of Vinyka last night.
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Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news?
Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it.
We just contributed to a podcast. We're the first people to do podcasts.
Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special.
So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we
should call it.
And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.
Before Jonas Brothers was, we had...
This is how you guys remember it going down?
Yes.
I have a very different memory of this.
We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say,
Hey, Jonas.
And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.
But thanks for remembering that, guys.
Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or where,
wherever you get your podcast.
Just listen.
We don't care where you hear it.
Another podcast from some SNL
late night comedy guy,
not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Me and hilarious guests
from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman
help make you funnier.
This week, my guest,
SNL's Mikey Day and head writer
Streeter Seidel,
help an a cappella band
with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends.
on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts.
Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect.
We were God's chosen kingdom on earth.
He felt destined for greatness.
So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob
into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back.
Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets,
meeting the president of Turkey.
I'm Michelle McPhee,
and this is one of the most shocking,
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When Jacob met Levan this went to a billion dollar fraud.
But with two kings from entirely different worlds,
just how long can their empire survive?
The largest tax investigation in American history.
You need to tell me what you know.
Is somebody coming after me?
Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life.
Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the Aihar Radio app,
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or wherever you get your podcast.
And, you know, there are a lot of bigs in the league.
Like, if you think Celtics fans, like Luca Garza, like, there's a lot of,
or Vucevich, I think, falls into this group as well as long as we're talking Celtics.
There's bigs where it's like, oh, he's popping.
Go ahead and take it.
You'll make a third of them, whatever.
You might have a game where you go O for four.
If you happen to make your first two, maybe we'll react.
But there's a whole lot of like just kind of letting pick and pop figs shoot.
And, you know, there's a big difference.
between shooting 37, 38% on completely unguarded wide open threes
versus shooting 37, 38% on high volume, aggressive threes
that are contested and where the defense is actually accounting for you.
That's why three point percentage on its face isn't necessarily
a de end all be all way to read that stat.
There's a lot of context there.
And YECA is very much like a legitimate,
you have to guard him type of spacing vibe.
And that is just what creates.
a lot of space around the basket for offensive players that aren't as talented as the other
offensive players around the league. It makes life easier for this Atlanta perimeter scoring
court. I want to include his offensive rebounding in there too. Dyson Daniels deserves a lot of
credit for this. But as we mentioned, the Hawks are sixth in offensive rebound percentage in this 19
game span. And Enoch's ability to clean things up around the basket, Dyson as well, those
create a lot of extra possessions for Atlanta. Dyson Daniels is kind of the,
perfect inverted screener for Jalen Johnson because he doesn't shoot the ball really well,
though he did hit a massive three in the Celtics game. It was hilarious listening to the Celtics
broadcast because they were like legitimately like flummicks that Tyson hit that three at the top
of the key towards the end of the third quarter. But he could slip out of screens and he's actually
very good there in the middle of the floor with his floater. He shoots over 50% on it. And he's a very good
offensive rebounder. So overall, he brings offensive value despite being a guy that's a historically
bad three point shooter this season.
I thought those two wins against Orlando and Boston were also Jonathan Kamingas two best games since joining the Hawks.
Again, he's had big statistical performances over the course of his time there against bad teams and certain contexts.
But I thought those two games, especially given the quality of opponent, they were his best two games of the season.
I thought he was very good defensively against Boston.
He held up in some switches against guys like Peyton Pritchard, made some good helpside rotations around the basket,
and was just generally very active.
And then he's just starting to find his spots in the offense in the half.
court. Obviously, he's a great transition score, but the big one is he's able to slash off the wing effectively.
He'll get, he'll get these situations where just the floor is spaced properly and he'll have the ball in the left wing and he can just quick hit a drive and try to get all the way to the basket where he can draw fouls and finish at the rim there.
And he's been hitting 41% of his threes over this 19 game span, which has helped him stay useful in his off ball situation.
So the first time this season, then where I'm actually starting to see some sustained positive impact from Jonathan Caminga.
On defense, it's not perfect.
There's still a handful of times each game where you'll see Jalen Johnson or Jonathan Kamenga get back cut because they're just ball watching or times where their front line will get a little overwhelmed by some of the bigger, stronger players around the league.
But they've really been solid.
Their length on the weak side has really stood out to me in film sessions.
So Atlanta does a lot of loading up on the strong side.
I talked about this the last time we talked about the Hawks, but like they'll bring a Congo up and basically like a middle drop or like a catch hedge where he's not all the way up at the level, but he's allowing the roller to get.
get behind him. And he kind of comes and situates himself like about 15 feet away from the basket,
just waiting for the guard to drive into him. And it creates this like a little bit of indecision
where the hawks are loaded up to the strong side, but there's a lot of length between where the
ball is and where it needs to get in order to beat the defense by flipping the side of the floor,
by getting the ball across the floor. So like there will be times where the ball handler will force
interior passes and a congo will get a lot of steals just with his length, just kind of sitting.
in that like little soft catch hedge type of coverage, right?
Or a lot of possessions where it is Jalen Johnson or Zachary Rissachay or
or a Jonathan Kaming guy, include him as well, where they're on the weak side and the
skip passes come or those quick swing swing sequences come.
And those guys just can jump passing lanes that look open but actually aren't because
you've got such a lanky athletic player that's kind of hawking those passing lanes.
And they're getting, again, they're getting most of their steals from their guards,
Nikiel Alexander Walker and Dice and Daniels
are leading the team in steals in the span.
They're getting about four between the two of them.
Obviously, a cong who's getting a lot of steals.
But they're getting another three steals a game
just from those three forwards
because of how active they've been on the weak side.
And that again is feeding those margins
that they keep winning.
They're forcing turnovers to feed their transition attack.
In general, they're just a very scrappy athletic team
that has a lot of ball hawks.
So, meaning just guys who get a lot of 50-50 balls.
So that helps them get so many offensive rebounds.
and then the pace they play at leads to a lot of opportunities in transition.
Again, the third in the NBA in total transition scoring per game,
according to Synergy at 29 points per game.
We talked before the season about how I thought the Hawks kind of needed to be good
in order to validate a lot of my core basketball beliefs
and it hasn't all been perfect over the course of the season,
but it is finally starting to come together here over the course of this final third of the season.
Like, for instance, I talked a lot about the value of ball pressure,
making opponent ball handler is uncomfortable.
I don't think it's a coincidence that Jalen Brown had a rough game against Atlanta because they got up into him early and often.
And he approached that by attacking, attacking, attacking, and it caused him to rush, which caused him to lose some of his, like, floor game management type stuff that he showed to a super high level against Oklahoma City, for example, in that second Oklahoma City game.
And again, sometimes you're going to apply ball pressure and guys will still play well, just like Jalen did in the Oklahoma City game.
but your best chance to make an opposing star play one of his worst games is to make him uncomfortable.
And you can lead to more of those kinds of nights by applying good ball pressure.
Two, the value of increasing transition possessions.
Why?
Because transition possessions are just more efficient than half-court possessions by a wide margin.
So, for instance, the Hawks, they have a 115 offensive writing in transition.
The best half-court offense in the league right now, Denver, is giving you 106 points per 100 possession.
So even the best half-court offense in the league can't come close to a transition offense like what the hawks bring to the table.
The average half-court offense, which is about where Atlanta lands, is about 97 points per 100 possession.
So you're getting like a legitimate 20% increase in value per possession when you push in transition.
So if you push in transition, you score more, it's going to give you a value add over a large sample.
That's something that I believe in and I wanted to see translate to wins that we're starting to see with Atlanta.
Three, the value of just generally dominating the possession battle and the margins.
So like, yeah, your half court offense might have a small deficit or a small advantage,
whatever it is versus your opponent.
But your best chance to flip that dynamic, whatever it is, is to win on the margins.
Like I talked about this with the Lakers early in the year.
Lakers were an elite half court offense all year, but they couldn't win on the margins in any way.
And so it wasn't enough for them to be able to compete with the best teams in the league.
ironically the reason why the lakers have been able to start winning it's one their half court
offense has gotten even better as luke has gotten better and as they've gotten healthy but two
now they win the points off turnover battle by a wide margin every night they're creating margin
you need to find some way to supplement the half court battle and so if you can do it through
points off of turnovers if you could do it through second chance points if you can do it just by
pushing in transition whatever you can do to generate margin or to generate more possessions
you increase your chances of winning basketball games in the the hawks
are literally dominating all of those areas right now.
And lastly, the value of having a depth of players down the roster
who can all dribble shoot and pass to a certain extent.
Why?
Because if you can create advantages,
then in advantage basketball,
you need guys who can capitalize on those advantages
by either hitting an open three,
driving and close out,
making that next decision in the line,
or providing some form of other finishing ability,
whether it's Dyson Daniels,
little floaters around the basket,
vertical spacing from your bigs,
the ability to slash close outs and get all the way to the rim, whatever it might be.
And I liked this roster at the beginning of the year.
And I thought, oh, like, Trey Young plus a bunch of guys who can like dribble shoot and pass reasonably well out of advantages.
They should be able to score.
And obviously, we lose the Trey Young piece of it.
This new roster has a very different look.
So the key swing factor was, will they be able to create enough advantages when they get stuck in the half court?
And yes, in the big picture, they've been a mediocre half court offense.
Again, 97 half court offensive rating.
I think it ranked 17th.
the NBA, if I remember what I looked at this morning. But because of the improvements from guys
like Jalen Johnson and Dekele Alexander Walker, coupled with a congou becoming just a deadly floor
spacer, that's allowed them to play better in that phase of the game. In this 19 game span,
they've had a lot of really good half-court offense games. In fact, they've had 12 of those 19
games where they've been over a 100 offensive rating in the half-court. So they are showing some real
signs of progress in that phase of the game as well. It's definitely a very exciting time.
to be a Hawks fan.
All right.
I wanted to take some time
to look at our superstar tiers
today, specifically within the context
of the playoffs,
meaning what are the guys around the league
that are going to be factors
in this playoff run
and where do they stand
in terms of those echelons of the NBA,
right?
I always refer to the stars in the NBA like this.
Are they a top tier superstar?
Are they a second tier superstar?
Are they just a third tier star
and going on down the line, right?
So again, this is not intended today to be a player ranking,
like in a one, two, three sort of sense.
These guys are going to be duking it out in this playoff run.
That's when this is going to all get decided.
And then when we get to the summertime,
we'll do our best to place everyone in that ranking
to the best of our ability.
But I wanted to take some time today
to kind of set the stage for this impending playoff showdown.
Like I was looking at the calendar to take.
Can you guys believe it?
Next week is the last week of the NBA regular season.
This 82 game grind that we go through every single year is finally reaching its end,
literally a week from Sunday. So it's right around the corner. I wanted to take some time today
to place everyone in those tiers before we get started with the NBA's second season.
Starting with the top tier superstars, again, these are the guys who are capable of bringing
overwhelming basketball impact on a nightly basis. If one of these guys has a game where they don't
look impactful. It's like shocking. And you wonder what kind of weirdness was involved. And it
usually involves an injury or they're viciously ill or like just some sort of weirdness takes
place if these guys ever have like a really bad game. An average game for one of these guys
brings an extremely high floor, whether it's elite overwhelming scoring ability or overwhelming
advantage creation or overwhelming defensive impact or maybe some combination of those three.
I think we have a clear four guys going into the playoffs this year and then a pretty large gap after that.
Like I think we would all be in agreement on this list.
Again, in no particular order, Shea, Lukha, Yokic and Victor Wemann Yama.
Shea bringing just that overwhelming scoring ability.
Luca bringing a combination of overwhelming scoring ability and advantage creation.
Yokic more of the advantage creation, but also some scoring.
And then Victor Wemnon Yama, it's a lot of.
advantage creation via his ability to roll to the basket and draw defenders, but also he's
possibly the most impactful defender in the history of the league. So like those guys, like on
Shay's worst night, like if you dig into the numbers because Shea functions so much at the
rim, at the foul line and in the mid range, he's borderline impervious to a bad game because he's
just not going to have nights where he can't hit shots. Like when he has nights like that really
weird one against Chicago, it's exceptionally rare. Right. And like it was really,
not even in the shot result, but also in like the approach. He takes 10 threes. It almost felt like
Shea was out there practicing. Like, we're not going to lose to the Bulls tonight. I might as well
try to shoot myself out of this three point shooting slump. That's literally what it felt like when you were
watching the film, right? Luca is much more volatile as a score because he relies so much on his
three point shot. That's been kind of the weird thing. Like his rim attempts have like steadily
declined year over year. But he's countered that by becoming like a Steph Curry
like nuclear upside three point shooter.
Obviously not the type of shooter that Steph is.
I just mean he's added that kind of variance to his game.
We're like if Luca hits seven or eight threes,
he just,
he's the best part in the world by a mile
because he just brings this nuclear upside
with his three point shooting, right?
But I think Luca counters some of his like volatility as a score
by being like a much better passer than a guy like Shea, right?
So like he has a high floor in the sense where like,
even if he goes three for 13 from three,
he's going to get to the rim for like a couple of layups.
He's going to make four or five little floaters and mid-range shots.
He's going to get to the foul line seven or eight times.
He's still going to end up with 33, 34 points.
And he's going to create a lot of advantages because he's such a gifted passer.
Koliokic, one of the most reliable night-to-night efficiency guys.
He's not the volume score that Shay or Luca is, but he's literally the best passer in the league right now,
one of the best passers in the history of basketball.
And again, like we talked about with Victor, just in,
incredibly high floor every night because he has such profound defensive impact and his gravity as a roller.
And then like we've seen as of late with how aggressive he's been as a score, he seems to be going for 40 and 20 every single night.
He has that upset. All these guys have upside, right? Like Shea can go for 40, Luca can go for 40, Yokic can go for 35, 15 and 15 and 15. And Wembe can go for 40 and 20.
But they're floors because of Shea's reliability, because of Luca's playmaking, because of Yokuch's playmaking and reliability, because of Wembe.
defense. They don't have the floor drop out the way that you do when we get into the second
tier of stars. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news?
Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it.
We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of
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the name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call.
about what we should call it.
We were thinking I'm originally calling it
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before Jonas Brothers.
This is how you guys remember it going down?
Yes.
I have a very different memory of this.
We were talking about a thing,
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He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back.
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Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
Second tier superstars.
These are guys who on any given night are legitimately able to reach the level of the guys in the top tier.
Like in any one game setting, they can look a Shea or a Lukah or a Yokic or a Wembe in the eyes and they can outplay them head to head for like one game.
That's what their ceiling is.
But these are players that struggles to sustain that level for one reason or another.
Maybe they're a younger player who is still in their development.
trajectory. So inconsistency is kind of just part of the deal. Maybe they're an older player whose
body doesn't allow them to consistently meet that level just because of the natural stuff you deal with
when you're in your late 30s, right? Maybe they're in the heart of their prime, but they've just been
unable to rectify a flaw that just keeps rising to the surface, whether it's like something with
their floor game, something with their athleticism, some piece of their game that's prevented
them from taking that final leap. I think there are nine players in this tier right now.
The two young guys that come to mind are Anthony Edwards and Cade Cunningham.
With Cade, it's more associated with his three-point shot and just overall his finishing.
He can have games where he struggles to make layups and goes two for 11 from three.
But like when Cade has his three-point shot going and when he's finishing at the rim,
he's such a gifted basket attacker with such a physicality that he brings to the table,
such a great passer.
He's a capable two-way player.
When Cade's got all the phases of his game going,
he literally looks like a version of Luca Dantjus, right?
So like Cade has that upside.
Anthony Edwards, it's very much like he's also a little volatile because of his three-point shot that he leans on and his floor game can go up and down.
He can have games where he struggles to interpret more sophisticated defense and can go ice cold as he just struggles to solve a puzzle.
But Anthony Edwards can have these games where he goes once again, like seven for 11 from three and you can't keep him from getting to the basket.
And he looks like prime Michael Jordan.
So again, both of those guys have the nuclear upside of a top-tier superstar.
but as they work through their inconsistencies,
and more just learning how to interpret defense
and building some more balance in his shot profile,
Cade Cunningham,
finishing at the rim and finishing from three,
there's some turnover stuff with Cade, too,
that he can deal with sometimes.
When those guys start to rectify those issues,
I think they'll become top-tier superstars.
They just have to build that consistency.
The old guys, and again,
it's literally just can their bodies hold up here.
But Kawhi Leonard, Steph Curry, and Joel Embed,
Joel Embed has had stretches since he's come back.
We're at like four or five minutes stretches where he looks far and away like the best player in the floor.
It looks like Joel and Bede from a few years ago, right?
Steph Curry, even when he's not scoring, is one of the most gifted offensive engines in the league.
And when he can get to 30 points per game, he's every bit as impactful as an offensive player as a Shea, as a Luca, as a Nicole Yokic.
And Quy Leonard has arguably been the best player in the league over the course of the last three, four months.
It's just a question of whether or not his body can hold up.
So all three of those guys, again, have top tier superstar upside,
but their age, their athleticism,
their ability to hang physically is going to be the thing
that keeps them in the second tier.
And lastly, these four guys are the in-their prime guys
that struggle to reach that top-tier
for some sort of flaw they've been unable to conquer.
So Jalen Brown, Jason Tatum, Donovan Mitchell,
and Jalen Brunson are the four guys they put here.
Jalen Brown, it's floor game.
He's got the nuclear athleticism to be a top-tier superstar,
and he's got the skill set,
the mid-range pull-up shooting,
the ability to consistently get to the basket.
He's a capable passer.
With Jalen,
it's all about approach.
And again,
like when he has games like that second half against OKC,
he can look to Shea Gildes Alexander in the eyes
and be better than him for 24 minutes of basketball.
But then he'll have games like the Atlanta game
where he just gets rushed and just forces the ball over and over and over again
into the teeth of the defense and his missing layups and missing,
just mixing in like random stupid three-point shots that don't really make sense.
With Jalen,
it's always been a floor game thing,
his ability to just like manage the large amount of possessions.
Like can he run an offense for 48 minutes consistently or 36 minutes,
whatever his minute total is consistently as a possession to possession shot creator.
Jason Tatum, it's always been a combination of the first step quickness and his pull-up three-point shooting.
He just can, the jump shot has just never been able to get back to where it was a few years ago,
where it was like 1.1 points per shot.
Instead, it's always been about one point per shot.
And he'll have games once again where he makes his pull-up ISO-3s and he looks like the best player in the world.
But then he'll have games where he just can't make him.
And he's never been the first step quickness guy to be able to consistently punish mismatches.
But when Jason Tatum has everything going in his game, when he has the pull-up three-point shot going,
when he's bringing all of his floor game to the table, is so gifted as a passer,
his defensive versatility, to be the ability to guard centers and anchor you as a defensive rebounding team
and all the things that he brings to the table, his upside is that of a top two superstar.
just he's been unable to sustain it throughout his career.
Donovan Mitchell, always a floor game thing.
Once again, you look at the box score and you're like,
oh my God, this guy's like 30 points per game on 60% true shooting in every playoff run.
But for some reason, it never amounts to team scoring.
We talked about this a little bit with Carter Rodriguez in the pod yesterday.
Like you have to have a certain amount of like floor game to be able to actually run team offense.
And that's been something that Donovan has struggled with.
But when he's got it going with this pull up three and he's getting to the basket.
He can become completely unguardable and on any given night can outplay a top tier guy.
Jalen Brunson, it's a fully well-rounded heliocentric approach, the ability to score at the rim in the mid-range to get to the foul line, the ability to score from three, the ability to play make, the ability to do all those things.
And then again, in any one game sample, he can match the impact of the top guys, but he's just so athletically limited that he struggles to sustain it on a game and game out basis, like the top tier guys.
So that's our top 13 going into this postseason run.
Again, nine of our second tier guys and four of our top tier guys.
Moving into the third tier.
And I have 24 players in this tier.
These are players that don't bring enough to the table in terms of overall impact
as basketball players to actually reach the level of the top tier guys.
But they still are exceptional overall impact players
compared to what we consider to be like a role player.
or even a really high level role player,
or even like a very, very flawed star.
These are very good basketball players
that don't have the upside of the top tier guys.
So maybe they bring an elite skill to the table.
Like maybe they're an elite score.
Maybe they're an elite defensive player
that can anchor a defense.
Maybe they're just like an overwhelming physical presence.
They're just too big for most players at their position
or they're too big, strong and fast for any player at their position.
and they present matchup problems in a variety of ways.
Or maybe, and we have plenty of these, like non-superstar shot creators,
guys that can run offense in a variety of ways.
Maybe they can run pick and roll really well.
Maybe they can beat switches really well.
They're just like shot creators,
but they can't do it at that like superstar level.
First of all, the elite scores.
I'm going to put Tyrese Maxie in here,
Kevin Durant, Jamal Murray,
and then I was on the fence.
This is one of my on the fence guys,
but I'm going to include Brandon Ingram in here,
specifically, even though I think he's a level below those three guys, I'm including Brandon
Ingram here because the Raptors, I think, are a spunky team and he's going to play a very
important role in this postseason as a swing player for them who's looked good in the postseason
in the past. So again, a clear level below Jamal, Kevin, and Tyrese there, but a guy that I think
as an elite score who can have a real impact in this year's postseason run. Again, Tyresexie,
it's the downhill speed mixed with the ability to shoot both off the dribble.
and off the move. Kevin Durant, it's just, you know, Kevin Durant. It's just the ability to consistently
get to his spots and knock down jump shots over the top. Jamal Burry is essentially the guard
version of Kevin Durant, a guy that he's going to get to his pull-up jump shot and you basically
just go like this and pray that he misses, right? And all three of those guys this year have been
able to score the ball effectively at volume and efficiently. Brandon Ingram less so. I'm just
including him here mainly as a reminder that that Raptor's team is spunky and dangerous and he's
arguably going to be their most important
half court score as we go into this postseason run.
Secondly, these are the
these are the high level
non-superstar shot creators.
These are those guys that in various ways
can run offense for your team
and can actually hit really high levels
in that phase of the game, but they're inconsistent
for one reason or another and they're
never able to like reach the level of those
top tier guys. Got a lot of guys in this group.
Devin Booker. Obviously,
three level score, pretty good pick and roll play
maker just lacks like the unbelievable shot making and athleticism to be like one of the top tier guys.
Denny Avdia, a guy that pressures the rim relentlessly, can actually slow down and play with some
pace in ball screens. Pretty good passer there. For him, the big thing is his jump shot is incredibly
unreliable, especially off the dribble. He's got a pretty bad hitch in it, which causes him to
struggle to get to it consistently. This is a guy who puts up a lot of those like, you know,
28, 8, 9 type of nights that you kind of mimic some of the higher level.
guys around the league. James Harden, exact same thing. Another guy who can put up those stat lines
that kind of mimic the higher level shot creators in the league, but a guy who can beat switches,
who can run, pick and roll at a high level, he's added three level scoring to his game since
he left Houston. Can it pull up threes? Can it score from midrange? Can get to the basket,
can draw fouls, can play make high level out of ball screens, can do it all. Austin Reeves,
exact same set of things that I just talked about with James Harden, a guy that on any given
Knight can go for 40, even 50 points that is pretty consistently for the Lakers in that like
20, 25 point per game range, a guy that can score from three, both on and off the ball,
a guy who can run ball screens at a really high level, a little bit more susceptible to switches
than some of the other guys on this list, but a very, very good ball screen player and a very
good all-around player that I think falls into this non-superstar shot creator role. Jalen Johnson,
talked a lot about him earlier today. He's really developed as a shot creator more in the realm of
inverted ball screens with guards as well as as a post-up score.
He's a guy that can pressure the rim at high level, has demonstrated some
improvement as an over-the-top shooter and is a very good passer.
Alper and Shangoon, this was a guy much better, much more fun guy to watch last year
in terms of just the level he was reaching as a night-to-night, just dominant one-on-one score.
It's been very up and down this year, but over the course of the last week and a half has
really started to flash that superstar upside again, a guy that can bully a lot of the
front-line players in the league who's got a good level of over-end-es-up.
were the top scoring. His big thing is just touch. His touch can be a little iffy. And he can have
games where he really struggles to interpret defense and can struggle with double teams and struggle to
pass in traffic. But Alperin as a post player, he's kind of like the Nicola Yoakitz version of a
non-superstar shot creator. La Mello Ball. Again, he's a guy that doesn't statistically
perform like the top level players in the league. But if you do any digging into the Hornets
offense, their offense flows because of him. He's the initial advantage creator that allows
guys like con Cinnipple and Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges to get going as scores off of the
advantages that he creates. We'd be foolish to not pretend he's not going to, he's going to play a big
role in this postseason run in one shape or another because of how valuable he is as a shot creator
for the Hornets. Darius Garland has been absolutely monstrous over the course of the last couple
of weeks for the Clippers. He looks athletics. His feet look like they're able to plant and move
and change direction the way that they did for most of last season. He's able to break. He's able to
break the defense down with his speed, and he's got all of the shot making and playmaking to capitalize
on his ability to beat people off the dribble. He's been shooting the three at an insane rate
as a clipper. Darius Garland's on this list could very well be in an eight one matchup against
O KC this year. It could be very important. Daron Fox and Steph Castle are two guards
for the San Antonio Spurs. The two reasons, the main reason why these two guys are so incredibly important
to the Spurs is they're both excellent cross-court passers, which as we've talked about,
Victor Women Yama has this extreme gift to draw attention as he's rolling to the basket, consistently drawing tags.
The opening there is always the weak side corner. That's where the tag usually comes from.
Both Deer and Fox and Steph Castle can consistently get downhill in ball screens and from there make the valuable cross-court passes to capitalize on the attention that Victor Women-Yama draws.
Now, they have other different bits of value.
Steph Castle is a much better lob passers, so he's got better lob chemistry with Victor.
Dearen Fox is a much more gifted
like short to mid-range score.
Steph Castle's got more of a bully ball ability
to get to the basket, but Dearen Fox is very good at beating
people off the dribble in switches.
So they both bring a variety of different kind of traits
to the table, but I wanted to highlight that
cross-court passing. Then lastly on
this list, Jay Doe, Jaylon Williams,
from the Oklahoma City Thunder. Again, it's been a injury
of played season for him, a very up and down season
for him in terms of his rhythm, but we would all
be foolish to pretend he's not going to play a massive
role in this postseason run. I had him as a
top 20 player coming into the season based on how
well he attacked the basket over the final two rounds of last year's postseason run.
Your textbook non-superstar shot creator is going to be very impactful in this postseason run.
Athletic mismatches.
These are guys that aren't necessarily functioning as super high level, well-rounded shot creators
for one reason or another, but they're so big, strong athletic, whatever it is they bring to the
table, they are complete mismatches that will play massive roles in this postseason run.
One, LeBron James, again, shifting away from shot creation.
In the Cavs game, he took just eight shots.
Not to say that he can't do that, but as we're looking at LeBron in this postseason run,
he's very much an athletic mismatch.
He's a guy that's going to be doing a ton of work as a low-man defensive rotation kind of guy,
defensive playmaker on the weak side, a guy who's anchoring the Lakers as a defensive
rebounder, the literal best transition score in the league, which is insane for a 41-year-old,
and doing a ton of damage as an off-ball score, screening and rolling to the basket for guys
like Austin Reeves, attacking closeouts off of guys like Luca.
We talked about his ability to consistently hit vertical spacing windows,
driving closeouts, which is given him value when his jump shot hasn't been as good as it's
been in years past.
LeBron James is one of those athletic mismatches as a third-tier star.
Palo Boncaro kind of lands in that shot creator kind of mold, but he's just, to me,
is so much more of just a physical mismatch because he doesn't pass the ball very well and he's
not a good over-the-top score.
So Palo kind of lands between those two areas, but I'm looking at him as,
an athletic mismatch in the sense that you can say what you want about palo i was disappointed again
in him watching the jalen johnson his performance against jalen johnson last night he can be a maddening
player to watch but it's like you end up in a first round series with erlando it's like palo's still
bigger and faster and stronger than anybody you have guarding him so he's a physical mismatch julius
randle same kind of thing inconsistent up and down can function as a playmaker for the uh for the wolves at
times maddeningly inconsistent but once again you end up in a first round series and it's like can this
dude guard Julius Randall, oh crap, he's too big, he's too fast, he's too strong, he's a physical
mismatch. Carl Anthony Towns, definitely that, whether it's on the offensive glass, whether it's
him being too fast for bigs, too big for smalls, his ability to space the floor, he is just at his
position a huge size mismatch and quickness mismatch compared quicker than bigs, bigger than
smalls, he's a big athletic mismatch. And then lastly, Jalen Dern. Just an absolute monster as a
finisher on the roll. As a guy who can
rat close outs when he catches in the middle of the floor,
as a guy who can do damages on offensive
rebounder, he's just an absolute physical
load to handle underneath the basket.
And lastly, defensive
anchors. And again, each of these guys
actually averages over 15 points per game
and has some offensive utility.
But their primary value
to their team is to anchor
the defensive end of the floor. I think we
have four guys in this tier.
Bam, out of bio, Chet Hongren,
Scottie Barnes,
and Evan Mobley.
Bam, again, just your classic defensive anchor that is able to switch out onto the
perimeter at extremely high level, which gives them a ton of scheme versatility.
Not the best like rim protector drop coverage guy, but he is very good at that.
And he's maybe one of the top three or four switching bigs in the entire NBA.
So he just brings an enormous amount of defensive versatility there.
Chet home, we're just a monster rim protector that also brings the ability to switch.
Chet's had an awesome season.
A very underrated season is very, very important to what Oklahoma City.
does. And Scotty Barnes,
he's got a case for defensive
player of the year, probably going to make first
team all defense. Scottie Barnes has been an absolute
monster this year. It's just a rangey athlete
on the backline, just once again, functioning
in a variety of different ways. The ability to
deploy him on the perimeter against a variety of different
types of guys, his ability to protect
the basket to defensive rebound.
Scotty is just a monster defensive
weapon. Same goes for Evan Mobile.
He kind of falls into that Scottie Barnes mold as
a guy that is kind of a Swiss Army knife
on the defensive end that can be deployed on the
perimeter that can be deployed at the basket.
That brings a lot of different
traits to the table. And each of those guys in their own
way contributes offensively, whether
it's Bame and at a bio and Chet Holmgren, spacing
the floor. Evan, the spacing has been a little
frustrating, but he can bring some matchup attacking,
can run a little inverted action. Scottie
Barnes has really improved as an isolation
and post-up score this year, just more
physically aggressive to the basket, which has
allowed him to become more dependable there, which has
unlocked some of his playmaking talent. So they each
brings some offensive skill to the table, but again,
their primary value is to anchor a defense.
So those are the 37 guys in those top three tiers that I'm looking at as we head
into this postseason run.
Again, four top tier guys, nine second tier guys, 24 in that third tier.
I thought that was a way to kind of just set the stage as we prepare for the showdown
in this year's postseason run.
All right, guys, it's all I have for today.
As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.
The schedule for the rest of the week is pretty simple.
We're going live after Lakers Thunder tonight.
So come hang out on YouTube as we prepare for our playoff workflow by doing one of our classic live shows.
We're also going to take some mailbag questions at the tail end of the show and then we'll run that mailbag again on Friday morning.
All right, guys, that's all we have.
I will see you guys.
Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers.
I'm Joe.
I'm Kevin.
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I'm Michelle McPhee, and I've been unraveling the strangest criminal alliance I've ever reported on.
A Mormon polygamist and an Armenian businessman.
multi-million dollar house,
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a billion dollar fraud.
But how long can this alliance last?
Tell me what you know.
Is somebody coming after me?
Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the I-Heart Radio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Hey, what's good, y'all?
You're listening to Learn the Hardway
with your favorite therapist and host Kear Games.
This space is about black men's experiences,
having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere,
but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing.
How many men carry a suit or armor?
It signals to the world that you're not to be played with.
And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to,
listen to learn the hard way on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcast,
or wherever you get your podcast.
This is an IHart podcast, Guaranteed Human.
