The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Ranking All 30 NBA Teams: Spurs, Thunder, Knicks, 76ers TOP CONTENDERS + who else has a title shot

Episode Date: July 31, 2026

Jason does his first NBA contender rankings of this season after the big free agency and trade moves have finally happened thanks to LeBron James making his decision. He breaks down why the San Antonio Spurs, OKC Thunder, New York Knicks, and Philadelphia 76ers are the best four teams, plus where Giannis Antetoknoumpo and the Miami Heat, Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers all fit into the equation, along with all 30 NBA teams. All lines presented by Hard Rock Bet.  #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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As promised, now that LeBron James, assigned with the Philadelphia 76ers, and I'm back home in the comforts of my studio. We had a successful trip to Houston to get my brother and his new wife, Emily, married. That was the last one of my siblings to get married. I had my sister get married earlier this year. I have two brothers and a sister.

They are now all officially locked up. a nice fun trip excited to be back though in the comfort of our studio we have a general idea of what the NBA landscape looks like so what i'd like to do today we're going to do our contender rankings i'm definitely going to give you guys my top 10 contenders but then you know i was on my plane today i'm recording this on monday and i was like you know what let's just put every single team in the NBA in tears so we're going to hit all 30 teams today i'm not actually going to hit the bottom teams we're going to list them. But I have all 30 teams split into seven different tiers. And so from there, we'll kind of work our way up from the bottom. And then at the top, you guys will see the,

I have 12 teams that I consider legitimate shots, excuse me, 13 teams that I think have a legitimate shot to win the championship. Those are broken into four tiers. We'll kind of work our way up and we'll go, and then we'll call it a day. You guys know the joke before you started, subscribe to the Hoops on YouTube channel. So you don't miss any more of, our videos. We have a goal to get to 150,000 subs. You need about 7,000 more. Take a second to scroll down and hit that subscribe button. If you already subscribe, like this video, sign up for post notifications. It helps us a lot. Last but not least, if you guys want to get questions into our mailbag,

we were going to do mailbag this Friday. We're going to push it to next Friday because we got a special guest coming on the show for Friday show. Spike Eskin, who covers the Philadelphia 76ers in all things, Philly Sports. He's going to be coming on. Not a big LeBron James fan, which I'm excited to have a debate with him about that experience as well as what he thinks about the addition to Philly and obviously more deep dive into the new the new look 76ers as we head into next season. So that'll be on Friday. Then we'll get back into our normal mailbag next week. All right. Let's get started. So from the bottom, these first six teams, these are just the teams that I expect to be bad.

Milwaukee, Chicago, Brooklyn, New Orleans, Memphis, and Sacramento. Not to say that there won't be things that I'm excited to see. I am also really excited for Chicago fans about Caleb Wilson, and I want to see what he can accomplish in his rookie season. Same goes for Cam Boozer in Memphis. I'm excited to see the New Milwaukee Bucks backcourt. See how well those guys can gel together, another season for Ryan Rollins,

Braden Burrys in the mix. But these are teams that I thoroughly expect to be bad. The next seven teams, these are teams that I think on some nights will look good, but we'll struggle to have sustained success. And then I think our flawed roster constructions for one reason or another. The Orlando Magic, the Washington Wizards, the Portland Trailblazers, the Phoenix Suns, the Los Angeles Clippers, the Golden State Warriors, and the Dallas Mavericks. And again, those two tiers I don't have in any particular order.

The rest of the list I have ranked. But in this tier, again, I think you'll have nights where it's tough to beat the Orlando Magic. You'll have nights where Trey Young and Anthony Davis are healthy, and AJ DeBonsa's putting up an efficient 20, and it's tough to beat the Washington Wizards. Portland is weird as hell with the acquisition of John Morant and bringing Damian Lillard into the fold, but they still have enough talent that on some nights, I think they're going to be tough to beat. Phoenix is well coached, plays great defense, and has a lot of shooting and guys that can drive closeouts. That makes them really hard to guard. They're going to have nights where they look good. The Los Angeles Clippers are an organization that you guys know over the years I've talked about that I value their coaching. I value the roster construction, their ability to find talented players on the margins. And again, you're going to have a season.

It's going to be a completely different look, depending on what happens with this Kauai Lenter trade. I think it's going to go through. But you have Brandon Ingram, you have Darius Garland. is talent there. I'm really curious to see how Keaton, uh, Keaton Wogler fits in as well. They're going to be feisty. Golden State Warriors like, yeah, everyone's shredding them for their non-existent offseason. We all saw the chart that was going around where every single team in the NBA made some sort of acquisition this summer, except for Golden State. And, you know, we vented about them in the show, uh, on Saturday morning. So I won't go into too much more depth there. But if Steph Curry happens to

be healthy on any given night. And so is Draymond Green. And so is Al Horford. So is De Anthony Melton, Gys Santos and Yaxa Lindenberg. Like, they're going to be tough to beat. There will be nights where they are going to look tough to beat. But they obviously are not talented enough to have any sort of real sustained success in the NBA. Dallas similarly, like there's actually a lot of players I really like on that team. I'm one of the people in the league that's more high on Kyrie Irving than most. Cooper Flag is someone I like a lot. You have deep center rotation. There's a lot of talent there, but they're young and they're flawed. And so I don't think they're going to be able to have any sort of sustained success. But that group of teams, if they're on your schedule,

especially on the road, you're going to be like, oh, man, that's going to be a tough win. But they're not teams that I think are going to be able to have any sort of sustained success. Getting to our third tier, these are really good teams that I don't think can win the championship. So these are like actual legitimately very good basketball teams. I just don't think they have the pieces necessary to win four rounds. Number six, the Utah Jazz. This is one of my favorite teams coming into the season. I would have liked them more with Walker Kessler and just leaning in on being absolutely massive. But I totally understand under their circumstances why they decided to take advantage of Walker Kessler's value, especially for that Los Angeles Lakers franchise that was looking for like a foundational center for them. So they made the right move there. I'm not debating that. It's more of a long play anyway if you're Utah. You're not trying to win the title this season. But I like a lot of the talent on this team. I like Jaron Jackson and Lori Markening as a fit together. I like, I'm a huge Keontay George fan. Obviously, Darren Peterson, I think is a shoe in super natural fit with that group. That's as strong a core

four as you'll find for many of these kind of young up-and-coming teams around the league. I just think Utah is going to be really good. Obviously, they don't have the top end talent or the depth of talent to win the champion, to win the championship. But I just think that's going to be a really good team. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were like 46, 47 wins and threatening for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Number 16, the Charlotte Hornets, similar in the sense that I like a lot of their foundational pieces. My one thing with Charlotte is I just don't think they have the top tier shot creation talent, the guy that can really break the defense down. I really like Con Cinnipple. I really like Brandon Miller. I really like Nas Reed, Musa Diabate in a contract year.

You know, Ryan Cockbrenner, you've added depth. Kobe White's in the mix now. I like all of these guys. I think all of them are a combination of like jump shooting talent, ball handling talent and playmaking talent that is going to make them really hard to guard on most nights. But anytime any team really tightens the screws on the Charlotte Hornets, who's your best option to break the defense down? It's a con can'tipple.

It's a Brandon Miller? You know, it's just, is it Kobe White? I just, I wish they had had a. a plan for the post Lamello ball era, whether it was going in for all in for a Jalen Brown or waiting to trade Lamello until they had that replacement piece. I just, I'm, I'm, I'm confused. It feels like a step back in that specific area that is so important when you reach the highest levels of the NBA. That's why I don't take Charlotte series of as a championship contender. But again, in this tier, I do think they're a really good team. Same thing goes with

the Atlanta Hawks. I love the idea of capitalizing on the perimeter defense. talent that Oklahoma City sent their direction. Lou Dort to me is a little underrated coming off of a frustrating playoff series against San Antonio where he was a bad matchup in a series where like you really have to space Victor Wenben Yama out. And so Lou Dort can struggle in that specific type of setting. But he, especially as you look at this Eastern Conference and you look at teams that are going to have Janus, teams that are going to have Jalen Brown and LeBron James, teams that are

going to have Jason Tatum. having a Lou Dort that you can throw at those guys is a really useful acquisition. I like Aaron Wiggins. I think he's a guy that was just buried at the back of a really talented rotation in Oklahoma City. But Atlanta, to me, between the continuity that they have of the guys coming back last year, the depth of perimeter defense talent, the continued growth from guys like, I think Jalen Johnson's going to have a big year this year. Obviously, Nikil Alexander Walker had a rough playoff series,

but I think he'll take that to heart and continue to get better over the course of this off season. You're bringing back C.J. McCollum. You have a legitimate bona fide stretch five in Ineca, Congu. Atlanta is going to be really feisty. I think they're going to be tough to beat night tonight in the NBA. I just don't think they have the depth of talent or the requisite shooting to be able to have success for four rounds in the playoffs. That's why I have them in that tier that can't win the title. Last team in this tier number 14, the Houston Rockets. And don't get me wrong, I like him a lot better with Fred Van Vleet. I like the idea of basically saying, like, we think that team last year is a lot better if Kevin Duran is healthy and if Fred Van Vleet can take the point guard responsibilities and help us get into

our sets. And on that front, I thoroughly agree. But the bottom line is why, as to why I don't have them as a legitimate championship contender really comes down to the fact that I don't like any of their young players enough in that setting. As much as Kevin Durant and Fred Van Vleet were excuses or explanations for what happened in the first round series against the Lakers, I don't think it's, I don't think we should just discard everything that happened in that series is just a product of the injuries. The truth of the matter is, you had so much talent in that series that most people didn't even give the Lakers a shot, including, I didn't pick the Lakers to win that series either. I was just as stunned as everyone else was. But the fact that the Lakers were able to expose

the young talent in Houston is not being ready for that level of basketball, I thought was pretty damning. Again, I think Houston will be a lot better this year. I think they'll be more resilient against specific looks, particularly double teams, right? If they're healthier, I certainly think they'll be a tougher route in the postseason. I just don't think they have the young talent or the top end superstar talent to win four rounds and hoist the trophy and win the title. Moving on to our fourth tier, these are long shot contenders. Teams that certainly have what you need necessarily to have a shot to win the title,

but they're long shots for one reason or another. Number 13, the Cleveland Cavaliers. I just, I've had a lot of Kaz fans say things like, we made the conference finals last year, especially in the context of why LeBron should consider them. And I don't ever want to completely discount playoff success. You know, you win a playoff series. You win a playoff series, right? But if you really dig into it, it's a Toronto Raptors team that was down their starting point guard in Emmanuel quickly and whose second best player in Brom, Brandon Ingram had an awful series before leaving early with an injury, and they got pushed to the brink. And at many times in that series looked like they were up against the ropes and they

were going to be in some serious trouble. And then you win that series against Detroit, and I don't want to take away the impressive nature of their game seven win on the road there, but you turn around in the New York series and you literally just get your ass beat. And it felt very much like oh, when we really had to face a legitimate championship contender, we weren't even in the same league as them. And that's concerning. And it gets even deeper when you start to look at the body language and the way it appeared that they quit at times down the stretch of that series. I just, I'm very low on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Now, to be clear, in this tier from seven through 13, I have these teams very close. So when I say Cleveland's 13th, that doesn't mean they're, you know,

completely off of the radar as a championship contender. The gap between seven and 13th. here is small for me. I just like Cleveland the least out of this particular batch of seven teams. Number 12, the Detroit Pistons. This is a, I want to put a kind of asterisk here in the sense that Detroit is positioned in a way where they can turn around and make some sort of deal for a secondary shot cratered. And should they get one, the overall defensive physicality and rebounding physicality of the team is something I like as a playoff team. And I left that playoff runs so impressed by Cade Cunningham. So I'm a big believer in the core of Detroit. I'm a big believer in Detroit's future. But in terms of taking them as anything more than a long

shot contender, it's hard for me to even conceptualize that until they get that secondary shot creator that they so badly need. Ultimately, they're going to run into some team that can layer rim protection at the basket and turn them into a jump shooting team and beyond. And again, I like the Isaiah Joe acquisition a lot. John Colin. was my favorite power forward in this entire free agent class, not named LeBron James. I'm a huge fan of the offseason acquisitions they made on the margins. But ultimately, when push comes to shove,

it's going to be Kade, it's going to be Jalen Duren, it's going to be John Collins, it's going to be a Sarr Thompson. Who's that fifth guy? Who's going to be the guy that goes out there as their reliable secondary shot creator that can be the guy that can take some of that workload off of Kate Cunningham. If they nail a trade like that, if they get a Kyrie Irving, they're going way up out of this tier into one of the upper tiers. If they get a

Devin Booker, they're getting into a different tier as a basketball team. But as long as they haven't made that deal, for me, they sit in a long shot contender tier. I have them at number 12. Number 11, the Indiana Pacers. And I understand this is going to frustrate some Pacers fans because of just how good they looked two years ago. And I haven't forgotten that that playoff run is burned into my memory. There's a couple of specific reasons. One, look at the teams above as I start to break them down. It's just, it's tough.

This is a very stacked playoff field, especially after all of the player movement. And there are some question marks. Tyrese Halliburton is coming off of an Achilles injury that can have an effect on explosiveness. Evita Zubots is a very different type of player than Miles Turner. When Indiana was at their best, there was a five-out spacing element that made them so difficult to guard. It's a lot theoretical.

And we're going to see when we talk about a couple of these other teams in this tier, like Toronto's in this tier, has question marks and theoretical nature to their team this year because of roster turnover. Minnesota, a lot of theoretical stuff going on after the lamella ball trade. Miami, who the hell knows what a lot of this is going to look like, right? So this whole tier is kind of full of teams where it's like, I kind of want to see what it looks like. And we're going to do contender rankings throughout the regular season, as you guys know, once a month. So we'll update this as things go along. But at this point in the summer, after the changes that they made at the center position and the return of Tyrese Halliburton,

I don't feel comfortable putting them ahead of any of these other teams until I kind of see it in practice. See how explosive Tyrese Halliburton looks. Love that I saw the through the legs dunk dunk the other day. That made me happy. Seeing the relief on his face to know that he could still explode like that to the rim when he needs to. I love that Indiana team. I'm rooting for that Indiana team. They're one of my favorite teams in the league, but I have them at 11 right now in our rankings. Number 10, the Miami Heat. Yonnes and Bam are going to be really difficult to deal with defensively. Andrew Wiggins is one of my favorite three and D players in the league. Davian Mitchell as that primary point of attack defender. We'll see what ends up happening with the two guard

spot over time. If it ends up being Tim Hardaway Jr., if they are able to obtain a Clay Thompson over the summer, if they get a DeMardo Rosen, if they get a Bradley Beal, obviously, they're in that department where they're hunting for a combo guard, right? And this is a good year for that. There's just a lot of combo guards that are available, but it's just a lot of question marks as to how this will all come together. And that's why I have them as a long shot contender. Had they got LeBron, it would have definitely been a tier or more above this. But at this point, it kind of feels like a multi-year journey. And like Rich

Paul said as much in his whiteboard or I can remember which one of his podcast he was talking about it. he basically said like, oh, like even if LeBron goes to Miami, they're not winning the title this year. They're winning the title next year. And he was looking at it as like a multi-year type of project. Even without LeBron James, it's going to be a multi-year project with Miami. They're going to have to potentially hit on a deal at this deadline as a trade or next summer. They're going to have to hit on their mid-level exception signing. They're going to have to hit on some sort of undrafted, you know, on the margins type of player, maybe one or two of those kinds of guys. There's a

variety of different ways that they can improve the roster over the next three cycles, but they're going to have to improve the roster, even with the strong core of Wiggins, Mitchell, Janus, and Bam. Right now I have them at number 10. Number nine, the Minnesota Timberwolves. I, you know, I'm as big an fan as you'll find. Jaden McDaniels, I think, is one of the most underrated players in the league. I think he's an OG and an OB-esque, like super, super valuable role player, maybe not as good as OG and and OBB, but in that same ilk of like role player that might be worth close to the max. Rudy Gobert, one of the best defensive players in the league. And I understand the thought process behind going to get a point guard, right? And Lemello

Ball being able to grease the wheels, unlock Rudy Gobert as a lob threat, being able to put Anthony Edwards in more situations where he can attack off of the catch. In general, just greasing the wheels for them on offense. I like all of that as a concept. But you have a gaping hole at the starting power forward spot. I don't think you're nearly as deep with physicality in your front line as you were with Nas Reid and Julius Randall. And I think there are question marks surrounding lamella ball and his health and his overall fit with this team. I'm excited to see it.

Can't wait to see what this Minnesota Timberwolf's team looks like. But to me, they're a long shot contender until I see more out of them this season. Number eight, Boston Celtics, kind of similar to me to Detroit, where I think there's a trade to be made at some point this season. I think that they need a legitimate secondary shot creator that can pressure the rim. That is the key word there. And the biggest weaknesses for the team coming out of last season were the center position and the ability to beat people off the dribble. You got a backup center in Mitchell Robinson and you got a and you got rid of the one guy on your team that was a high level

basket attacking talent. And so for Boston, I expect them to be a great regular season team. I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow squeaked out a top four seed in the Eastern Conference. They're institutionally strong with great basketball culture, one of the best coaches in the NBA, great GM. They're going to play hard every night. They have a brand of basketball and a continuity that will benefit them. I am as high on Jason Tatum as I've been in his career as an all-around basketball player. There's a ton of things I love about Boston,

but right now I just don't think they have the top end talent to be anything more than a long-shot contender. That said, they are positioned well to be able to make some sort of trade, whether it's using the Derek White contract or the Paul George contract or a smaller contract, they've got a boatload of draft picks to spend. And at some point this season, I think they're going to pull the trigger on somebody. I don't know who it is. But if they do, that could potentially vault them off of this tier.

But as currently constructed, I look at them as a really good regular season team that lacks the talent to compete against the best teams in the league. So I have them as a long shot contender at number eight. And then number seven, a team that I went back and forth on a lot over the course of the last couple weeks, the Toronto Raptors. and what I ended up, I ended up dropping them to this tier because of the question mark thing. So my first impression when the Kauai trade was announced with Toronto was, oh, this is so straightforward for me. I thought Toronto was really good. Kauai, Scotty Barnes and Kallarmeri Boyles can switch a lot of actions at the three through five.

They have big athletic guards. They have guys that can beat people off the dribble like Emmanuel quickly and Jamal Shed. There are just a lot of things that I really like about that Toronto team. And Kauai Leonard, I just think helps them on both. ends of the floor in key ways. Scotty Barnes, as good as he is, he's not a surgical half-court score. Kauai can help him with that. And he gives him another rangey, switchy, versatile defensive athlete to put alongside a front court that already has a bunch of rangey-switchy versatile athletes. So like, there's a lot of like just, you know, we talk about, we're going to talk about

Philly in a little bit. There's a lot of like, oh, will this work, will this fit? And like, I don't have concerns necessarily about Kauai's ability to fit in and help Toronto on both ends of the floor. But there are enough question marks with the youth and an experience of a guy like Scotty Barnes with the question marks surrounding some of their role players. You know, Colin Murray Boyle is going into just his second season. Quay Leonard's health and his issues to just stay on the floor in recent years. I felt like I wanted to be consistent with that. So I ended up dropping Toronto to number seven as a long shot contender. But I want to be clear if they are healthy and Kauai's cooking on all cylinders when they get to the playoffs, that team's

going to be a bitch to deal with for two weeks. And that's why I have them at the top of this tier in that number seven spot. Today show is brought to you by presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Some sports fan call this the slow period until football season, but on Hard Rock bet, we call it baseball season. There's a full slate almost every day for you to bet on your favorite teams and players. Build epic same game parlays and even live bet every inning from the first pitch to the final out. However you like to play ball, Hard Rock Bet has you covered. And if you think baseball is too slow, think again. The average first inning lasts just 17 minutes, making first inning bets one of the fastest and most exciting ways to get in on the action.

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That'll be number six, the Los Angeles Lakers, and number five, the Denver Nuggets. So, rosters are flawed for different reasons. I've talked about this at length. I actually like the Lakers offseason if they had planned to include LeBron James. For the record, for all you Lakers fans out there that are like, oh, like, I wish we could have had LeBron as the starting four, that's not the way the Lakers felt. They were very much intent on moving on from LeBron James this summer, and they did so. So that, like, for whatever, you know, seller's remorse you might have, they're not feeling that

way. They're excited to move on. They have an entirely new roster. Talking about that, that, that graphic that had Golden State showing no moves, a lot of moves for the Los Angeles Lakers, a lot of new guys. I like all the guys they signed for bench pieces. I like Quentin Grimes as a bench player. I like Colin Sexton as a bench player. Camra Carr, I think, is going to be a legitimate day one rotation player for them, right? Sondra Mamma Kalashvile, I think it's just straight up better at basketball than Ruby Hachamura is going to be a really useful bench piece for them. And then Walker Kessler, it's an expensive deal to make. He needs to be really, really good and healthy for that to be worth it. But I believe in Walker Kessler,

and I think he's going to be. I think the Lakers will look back on that trade fondly. Problem is, as much, and I'm as big of Austin Reeves believers, you'll find, the Luca Donchich from March was the best player in the world. I think he's absolutely capable of competing with the best guys in the league. Walker Kessler is a great fit with them at the five spot. I love the bench guys for all the reasons I just mentioned, who the fuck is starting at Small Ford and who the fuck is starting at Power Ford?

That's the question, right? And Small Ford, it's going to be by committee. I'm sure it'll be Quinn Grimes some nights. It'll be Jake Laravia some nights. it'll be, you know, it'll be a variety of different guys that slot into that position. Maybe Matisse Thibol, right? Like, but the four spot in particular is just a big question mark for me. And I know Jonathan Kaminga is kind of the fallback plan.

And I would expect that to come through. I'm factoring that in with this decision here. But Kamika is a flawed basketball player. And there's a reason why he's available at the discount that he's going to be available for. There's a reason why Atlanta's like, no, thanks, Jonathan. There's a reason why Golden State was like, no, thanks, Jonathan, when they were headed for a rebuild. just as much as I like this Lakers roster in every way beyond the starting three and four, the starting three and four being weak position groups for them is a legitimate concern.

That said, like the name of this tier says, our best guy gives us a puncher's chance. Having Luca Donchich with a legitimate secondary shot creator in Austin Reves in an awesome defensive center, I just think they're going to be really difficult to deal with in a seven-game series of Luca Donchich is healthy. So even with those flaws, I had them a full tier above those seven teams that I just mentioned. And I have them as a top six championship contender in the NBA this season. Number five, the Denver Nuggets. They lack athleticism.

They're losing depth. We lose a Tim Hardaway, Jr. You lose a Jonas Fallonius. They match the offer sheet on Spencer Jones, but we'll see if they're able to maintain a Peyton Watson. We know Aaron Gordon has injury issues. Jamal Murray had his best regular season in his career and then had a complete breakdown in the first round series against Minnesota. Christian Brown signs a new contract has a nightmare first season on that contract.

There's a lot of pessimism surrounding the Denver Nuggets right now. And I'm not going to sit here and completely overlook that stuff. A lot of it is legitimate roster weaknesses. They do lack ball handling after Jamal Murray and Nicole Yokic. They do lack athleticism and two-way talent guys that are like professional defenders. There's a lot of question marks surrounding this team. But it's just like I was talking about with the Lakers. you get to a playoff series and Jamal Murray is healthy and Christian Brown is healthy and in rhythm

and Cam Johnson is healthy and Aaron Gordon is healthy and Nicole Yokic is healthy. That's a group that has a lot of good basketball fit on both ends of the floor. And when Aaron Gordon is healthy behind Nicole Yokic, they have a lot easier time reaching the level defensively they need to in order to compete in the postseason. And Minnesota was a really tough matchup specifically, with Rudy Gobert and the other bigs that they could throw at him, they are no longer a factor in this equation because of that lack of front court depth that they sent out

in their pursuit of lamella ball and a chemistry shift, right? So the team that is given Denver the most issues is gone. And if they're healthy, there's still a pain in the ass to deal with. So again, flawed rosters for both the Lakers and for the Nuggets, but as long as Luca Donchich and Nicole Yokic are suiting up for those teams, I just think they have a chance. and that's why I have them as the fifth and sixth best contenders going into the season. The next tier, our second to last tier, we're definitely good enough.

We definitely have enough talent, but there are some question marks that prevent us from being that legit, bona fide top tier contender. That's the New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers. I have the Sixers at four and the New York Knicks at three. looking at the Sixers, I've been obviously marinating on this idea throughout the last three, four days since the deal was announced. And there's certainly question marks in terms of fit. And, you know, I think that there will be nights where it looks really clunky on offense. I think even when we talk about defense, like, we know LeBron can have nights in the regular season where he mails it in or where Joel Embed isn't moving well. They have Tyrese Maxie that can get attacked in action. It's going to have moments where.

it looks clunky and it looks like it's a flawed roster for one reason or another. But this is just an absurd amount of talent to have on a basketball team. You look at Tyrese Maxie, VJ Edgecombe, LeBron James, Jalen Brown, Joe L.M.B., Dean Wade, who again, yeah, if he's starting at Small Forward for you, starting at Power Forward for you, it leaves a lot to be desired. But as a bench forward, I like Dean Wade a lot, right? you know, you, uh, when you get the Anthony Simons as like a backup guard that can hit pull up threes and that can, uh, run pick and roll with the Joel Embed. I think he's another

guy that'll fit really well with LeBron James in inverted action and in regular action. Like he's a, if he's your, if Anthony Simon is your seventh best player, you're in a pretty good spot, right? Like Dominic Barlow, I think is going to actually see a lot of time with this team as a small ball five. We saw that quite a bit, uh, over the tail end of the season last year. And I just, imagine units with him and LeBron and Jalen Brown that can do some switching. And they have like a really good top nine, 10 guys at Kent and Tavius Caldwell Pope into the mix. Like they're in KCP again,

like if he's starting for you, he's not the same guy from that Denver team or that Lakers team. But he's one of your, you know, eighth, ninth, 10th guy in the rotation. They're going to be able to get a buyout guy. The player that I'd be targeting if I was Philly as like the final big move is I would be looking at,

the Charlotte Hornet situation and I'd be thinking about what happened with Walker Kessler. And I'd sit there and I'd go, okay, you know, we need some sort of center that can give us like a really, like a like a like a full, a full 30, 35 minutes a night when Joel Embed is you know, injured for one reason or another. And also you could argue they need a long term solution for that position is Joel and Bede will certainly age out of the league faster than most players that haven't had his injury history. Musa Diabate is in a, is in a contract year. And my guess is similar to Jalen Duren, similar to Walker Kessler.

He's going to be like, I can switch and defend and I'm a great offensive rebounder and I can dunk things around the basket. Like, I deserve a nice little pay day. And if I'm Charlotte, I'm looking at my team and I'm going like, well, Concanipple, someone I got to pay. You know, Brandon Miller is someone that I got to pay. I have another center in the hopper and Ryan, Ryan Kalkbrenner. You know, we just pay Kobe White.

You know, we have probably going to end up making some additional move at some point for another guy. If I was Philly, I'd be monitoring that Musa Diabate situation. And I'd be thinking about like, hey, if they get to a point where we get some intel that they've had some preliminary discussions on a new deal and they're not on the same page, maybe we can call them and trade them a veteran minimum contract plus draft compensation and get a legitimate switchy five to put next to LeBron and Jalen Brown. That'd be the guy that I'd be looking at if I was then. But whether it's a bigger trade or a smaller trade or a free agent signing or something crazy,

like Joel Embed for Anthony Davis, for the time being, I actually want to see Joel and B fit in the setting. Like as much as Anthony Davis is better defensively than Joel and Bid, I worry about his own health issues. And then also like, I just think Joel Embed is a big game player. And I never used to feel that way. but he swayed me with the Serbia game and with game seven against Boston and really the entirety of the tail end of that Boston series where it's like on offense, he's just a freaking monster,

man. He's just a huge pain in the ass to deal with in those settings. And so that's not to say that like if you get down the line and the fit is clunky and you need to move Mb that I wouldn't consider doing that if I was Philly. But at first, I would give it a couple months and just see how things go. Allegedly, this is his first offseason where he's healthy and he's had an opportunity to work on his body and work on his game for an entire summer. So I want to see what it looks like with Embed before they consider moving him. But who knows what the moves will be. They'll have buyout candidates, veteran minimum candidates. They're just going to be a destination given the fact that they are going to be like the biggest show in the NBA coming into this season. And again,

don't overthink the talent. There's clunkiness, but you get into a big game. VJ. Edgecom is an an awesome two-way athlete. Jalen Brown's an awesome two-way athlete. LeBron James is an awesome two-way athlete. They can find a way to have enough speed to keep Embed at the rim so he doesn't have to cover too much ground in space. He's a dominant rim protector who could also be one of the apex offensive talents in the league. I don't even mention Tyrese Maxie, who by the way, I think is going to fit incredible with LeBron James. LeBron has always fit really well with guards who can shoot,

especially shoot on the move. He had that success with Malik Monk over the years. He had that success with Austin Reeves over the years. Obviously a great fit with Kyrie Irving over the years. I think Tyreys Maxi is just going to be the next guard that's going to thrive alongside LeBron James. Again, there's too many question marks in terms of fit and then with Joe Alambide's health

to put them on that same tier. with San Antonio and Oklahoma City. But I take them very seriously as a championship contender, just from the sheer standpoint that they're top nine guys, you could argue they're in terms of pure talent. You could argue they're as talented as the top teams in the league. There's just enough, you know, questions with their fit that I can't put them on that top tier.

Number three, the New York Knicks. This is like the opposite of Philadelphia in the sense that like, the way I broke it down on our show when the LeBron James signing was announced is like the Sixers definitely have a higher ceiling than New York because they have more talent and they definitely have a lower floor than New York because they have so many question marks

surrounding fit and the injury luck surrounding Joel Embed and I'd argue a 42 year old LeBron James, right? The Knicks have like a very, very small margin between their floor and ceiling. We know what the Knicks are going to be this season. And that is like, are they as talented as San Antonio or OKC? No.

Do they have the top tier superstar that San Antonio or OKC has? No. But what they are is a complete basketball team. And everybody knows their role. And their top guy, Jalen Brunson, is every bit as capable of closing the final three, four minutes of a big playoff game as the top tier superstars in the league. And every guy's a star in their role. O.G. and Anobi is not a superstar, but he is a star in his role as the, as the small

forward on that team. Josh Hart is a flawed basketball player that fits perfectly alongside those four guys. Carl Anthony Towns gives them bona fide, legitimate five-out spacing. He can guard the likes of Joel Embedeed and Victor Wenbinoa. He is just an awesome basketball player. And the McHale Bridges is probably the least impressive Nick in that playoff run out of the starting lineup. And I just think he's a really good two-way talent. So, like, they're just a complete basketball team.

They bring back everybody except for Mitchell Robinson. and they get Andre Drummond, who I think is going to be just fine as a Mitchell Robinson replacement. Again, if all teams are at their best, the Knicks aren't winning the title, but there are question marks. Victor Women Yama is 7 foot four

and could come down with an injury, right? We saw Deere and Fox get hurt. The whole team is young and inconsistent in a variety of ways. OKC has shown injury issues and they're vulnerable against teams like San Antonio. And then every team we already covered has question marks for one reason or another.

The advantage the Knicks have is they have by far the highest floor out of any of these teams this season. And so all they have to do is truck along, get through the 82 games, and just be there. And they have a great chance to win the title because it's the same group of perfect fitting, awesome basketball players that have been there and done that year after year after year. And now they're champs, which comes with another layer of comfort in any sort of big game. I just, I think the Knicks have to be given the nod as the best team. of that San Antonio O KC tier.

Then our last tier, very simply put, bona fide top tier contenders. We've talked about this over the years. In order to be a bona fide top tier contender to me, you had to have a legitimate top tier superstar. You have to have a certain amount of like experience and like wherewithal to be able to handle the high pressure environments. You have to be incredibly good on one end of the floor,

but also great on the other end of the floor. And you have to have a depth of talent. like a solid, you know, 10, 12 guys that can really play so you can navigate the regular season, navigate the playoff field and not worry about breaking down. San Antonio and OKC are the only two teams that fit that bill for me. Victor Wemanniamah and Shagel is Alexander. Now both teams have real playoff experience. San Antonio, losing in the finals is invaluable to them in terms of understanding the pressure and stakes and knowing that you're not really done until you cross that finish line, right? So they have the top two superstar. They have the, the experience.

Both teams have a depth of talent. We talked about it with OKC. OKC has certainly had their, their exodus of talent this year, but their top nine, 10 guys, you're still dealing with the same core players that make OKC, OKC, right? So they have the depth.

And then both teams are truly elite on defense while also being great on offense. And that's the key difference between them and some of these other teams. They, all these teams check the boxes of, both of these teams, excuse me, check the boxes of bona fide top tier championship contenders. Now, why do I have San Antonio at number one

in Oklahoma City at number two? It's really simple. It's a combination of two factors. One, I think San Antonio has more opportunity for internal improvement. Tobias Harris wasn't my favorite power forward available, but I do think he's a good, useful basketball player that'll be in their rotation. I think there's a chance that he ends up, you know,

not being on the floor in a lot of, like, really big moments because I just think they might have better five. But he's certainly a useful rotation piece and a veteran that they can have to help feel more comfortable in those environments, whether it's from the bench or from the floor. It's not about any sort of addition to the roster. It's just internally. I even think the centers they drafted,

and I wouldn't be surprised if neither of them played this year, right? So, like, it really comes down to the internal improvement. I expect Victor Wemnon Yama to be way better next year than he was this year. I expect Steph Castle to be way better next year than he was this year. I expect Dylan Harper to be way better next year than he was this year. And Deer & Fox just had one of the most embarrassing moments that any guard has had in a playoff run in recent NBA history. Right. So like even him, I would expect to have a bounce back season.

San Antonio just has more opportunity for internal improvement. So I go to OKC. I do think Shay Gilgesa Alexander is going to be better this year. than last year. I think he's going to add more high volume three point shooting. I think he's going to look to attack from off the ball more often. I think there are a lot of things that Shay's going to do to be better, but he's already a candidate for the best player in the world. His improvement is going to be marginal compared to a guy like Wembe, who's very much in the assent stage of his career. I expect Ted Holmgren to improve year over year. I expect Jalen

Williams to improve year over year. But both of those guys are further along in their trajectory and closer to the plateau than guys like Dylan Harper and Steph Castle. So the first piece of why I have San Antonio over OKC is I think San Antonio is far more likely to have more internal improvement than OKC. The last piece of it, very simple. OKC doesn't match up well with San Antonio. If they were to play in a series tomorrow, who'd you pick? Most of us are picking San Antonio.

That's not to say OKC can't win. They certainly can, especially. they're fully healthy, I'd give him a great shot. If they were fully healthy last year, I think OKC would have beat them. I said as much during the series, right? But now we're a year ahead, the internal improvement for San Antonio, the exodus of end of the bench talent for OKC, which will put more pressure on their other guys to survive the regular season.

Then if they happen to meet each other in May, I just think San Antonio and the Victor Wemnon Yamma problem is a big problem for OKC. So much so that I've said so, and I truly believe, leave this. If OKC loses again to San Antonio this year, I literally think Sam Presti's got to go to the drawing board and construct a different basketball team because they could have a problem on their hands similar to what Denver had with Minnesota, where it's a very matchup specific. Why did New York give San Antonio issues? True five out spacing in perimeter size. OKC struggles with five out spacing and they're small on the perimeter. And San Presti might have

to make a dynamic shift in his approach to team building if they lose to San Antonio again. I think it's completely justified to run it back this season. The J-dub injury, the Chet choke job, Shea having another bad playoff series where he looks very one-dimensional. And I think all those things are going to flip in a positive direction for OKC. Shea will be better. Chet will respond to the humiliation. J-Dub will be healthier.

It's worth it to try. But if it fails again this year, I think Sam Preci is going to have to consider a dynamic shift in his team construct. But for right now, the internal improvement in the bad matchup for OKC specifically against San Antonio gives San Antonio the edge for me in our offseason contender rankings. Again, we will have another contender rankings after I see preseason footage and I spend all summer marinating on this and also seeing all the little tiny signings and adjustments that teams make between now and mid-October. And then we'll go monthly throughout the rest of the year as we watch the teams play.

But that is my breakdown of the current outlook for the 30 NBA teams broken into seven tiers. All right, guys, it's all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us. Hey, Portlandia fans. Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here. The Dream of the 90s is alive in podcast form. We're launching Podlandia AEO rewatch, our brand new podcast where we revisit every episode of Portlandia together, breaking down sketches, going deep on our iconic characters,

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Listen to Podlandia. AEO rewatch on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? I'm sports journalist Ari Chambers. Hey, what's up y'all? It's your girl, Sam J. And we're the host of Everyone Watches Women's Sports, a new podcast from Together in I Heart Women's Sports.

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