The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - SGA & Thunder HANDLE spiraling Wolves + LeBron & Lakers hot streak, Spurs questions | NBA Reaction
Episode Date: March 17, 2026Jason reacts to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the OKC Thunder beating Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday plus follows up on the Los Angeles Lakers win over the Denver Nuggets on Sa...turday to discuss what LA needs out of LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves to compete in the NBA playoffs, if Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs have enough experience, and more. All lines presented by Hard Rock Bet. #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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The Volume.
All right, welcome to Hoops tonight here at The Volume.
Happy Monday, everybody.
Hope all you guys had an incredible weekend.
Got a J-Pack show for you guys today.
We're going to do a deep dive into Timberwolves Thunder,
our main national TV game from yesterday.
And then at the tail end of the show,
because we haven't done a mailbag in a couple of weeks,
we're going to do a mini mailbag.
I've got five questions that we're going to hit.
We're going to talk some Spurs.
We're going to talk a little bit of follow-up stuff on some Lakers,
some big picture NBA stuff.
Then we'll get out of here today.
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Right.
mailbag, colon, write your question that helps us sort through them in the comments. We'll get to them in mailbags throughout the rest of the way. Also, we're not doing power rankings because we're doing contender rankings on Wednesday. So we're going to be shifting our gears more towards the playoff picture anyway. And we're going to be doing a ranking of the teams on Wednesday. So that's why we're not doing a power rankings video today. All right, let's take into Timberwolves Thunder. So for the first time in this entire season, Shea Gildedgesa Alexander hit less than a third of his shots. Shea has been one of the most consistent.
consistent players in the league this year. Obviously, you guys know about the 20 point streak where he just recently passed Wilt.
He kept that alive with a 10.4th quarter yesterday against the Timberwolves. But one of the big reasons why Shea has a ridiculous 67% true shooting percentage this season, which is off the charts, is that he just doesn't have bad games. And again, that 67% is insane. To give you an idea, the last time we had a high volume guard hit that number was literally Steph Curry in 2016.
So we are in really rarefied air there.
That was when Steph won unanimous MVP.
And you could argue Shea should be unanimous MVP this season.
We'll see how that goes when we get to the end of the season.
But one of the biggest reasons why Shea has that true shooting percentage is he's hit at least 50% of his shots in 41 of the 56 games he's played this season.
That's 73% of the time.
For some perspective, even Yokic, who's a center who takes the majority of his shots right at
the front of the rim, hits 50% of his shots, 78% of the time. So Shea is near Yokich level in his
night to night consistency with his efficiency. And he was awful against the Timberwolves, especially
in that first half. It was honestly strange to watch because I want to give the Timberwolves credit.
They did defend him well. Anthony Edwards in particular logged a half dozen or so excellent ISO reps
against him. Lots of different guys had great contests on his pull-ups or managed to twist his feet.
up on one of his moves to disrupt his base so he didn't get as much lift as he usually got.
He got blocked at the rim a couple of times. But I also thought Shay was just playing a bad
game. He was forcing the issue and taking some bad shots. It was just bizarre watching Shay play
a bad game because he just never plays bad games. To his credit, I will say, just like we talked
about in the Saturday night show, for those of you guys who missed it, we covered Lakers Nuggets
in an episode that went out very late on Saturday nights. You can find that a little bit further back
on our feed if you want to get the reaction to that game.
But in that show, I was talking about how with Luca, like,
Luca, because Lucas had just a really bad second half in that particular game.
It's like, you just got to stay with it.
You got to find a way to make a play.
And he found a way to make some big plays in that second half.
I don't care much for the 10 fourth quarter points.
That was after the game was basically out of reach.
But in that third quarter, things were teetering.
The wolves were going on a little bit of a run.
They had pushed it out to, I think, about nine.
and they just looked like the much more comfortable and confident team on both ends of the floor.
It was teetering. It looked like it could go either way at that point. It could have gone the other way.
And Minnesota could have gone up by 15 and they could have got out of there with the win.
In that run, Shea made two big time helpside rotations at the rim, one on a lob to go bear and one on a drop-off where he blew up what should have been dunks.
And they were a big part of what sparked OKC getting back into that game.
We talked about this about a week or two ago.
but Shea's had some real
defensive utility as a secondary rim protector.
And it's because he has long arms.
We talked about this.
Secondary rim protection is very different
than primary rim protection.
Primary rim protection,
usually you're the first line of defense.
Usually the guys come and screaming downhill at you
and you're making a play,
but you can get him to drop the ball off
or you can get him to miss a layup.
And then the big is out of the play now.
So somebody else has to come over
to either defend that drop off
or to defend an offensive rebound, right?
And so these two examples with Shay were drop-offs or lobs,
but that secondary rim protection,
one of the reasons why Shay as a smaller guard is able to still have success there
is because he's got really good length for the position, right?
So a lot of the secondary rim protection sequences
are more based on like flat-footed vertical leaping
rather than like a running start kind of thing, right?
Like if Gober gets a pocket pass,
catches it at the semicircle and he's screaming downhill,
takes off two hands, two feet,
Shea's not blocking that, right?
But if Gobert's in a straight vert right under the basket,
Shea is actually physically capable of making a play there.
That's secondary rim protection.
Secondary rim protection tends to be more of that vertical leaping kind of thing.
But I was impressed.
Again, like,
I thought Shea was mostly terrible in that game.
And I'm not going to be too hard on Shea because he just doesn't have bad games for the most part.
It's not like this has been a recurring issue.
But let's call it what it is.
He had a terrible game.
But he kept his composure.
and made a couple of big plays in that third quarter that helped his team
on the defensive end of the floor.
The defense was obviously the star of the game,
particularly their ability to force turnovers.
Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, A.J. Mitchell,
Shagos, Alexander, and Chet Holmgren,
all had multiple steals in this game.
They had 13 steals just between those five guys.
As a team, the Thunder Force 25 turnovers
and scored 29 points off of them running out the other way.
like if you want to ask how does a team have as much success as they did in this game
comfortably beating a championship contending level team in Minnesota despite your superstar
being unable to make a shot and having a bad floor game you do it by dominating the margins
they were 20 to 7 in second chance points and 25 to 7 in points off of turnovers that
literally flipped the entire game.
Alex Caruso had a cool quote at the end of the third quarter.
He was getting interviewed.
And he elaborated about how, like, he was asked.
Like, hey, Julius Randall's having success.
What do you guys got to do?
And Alex was talking about the idea of making them uncomfortable.
It's such a simple concept, but it makes all the difference.
How does a defense force turnovers?
You'll sometimes just take the ball away from the primary ball handler, right?
Like, sometimes that'll happen.
but it's not the most common thing in the world, right?
Like, Kason Wallace, ripped Anthony Edwards in the back court, got a steal, went out, and got
to lay out.
But that's generally rare.
Why?
Because NBA ball handlers are really talented.
They're usually not going to lose the ball there.
For the most part, your goal with ball pressure is to just try to speed up the ball handler,
cause him to rush a little bit, right?
From there behind him, you want to have aggression, right?
So maybe you send a double team on a drive.
maybe you are denying swing passes or denying the easy reads that are available.
When high post guys are trying to catch the ball like around the elbow,
three quarter front get around and make it so that there's not much of a passing angle.
You create scenarios where there are openings,
but the offense has to execute perfectly in order to beat you, right?
A pass to a three quarter front is tough.
if they are denying the first reads and sending help on a drive,
a skip pass is tough.
Doing all that while handling ball pressure is tough.
That's the point.
Like, right?
Like, it's really hard to execute perfectly when you're rushed.
So by getting up into the basketball to make the guy uncomfortable,
and by taking away the easy reads,
you make the offense be extremely disciplined.
They have to be perfect.
and that's difficult to do when you are rushed.
That's why you get up into the basketball,
even in just one-on-one situation.
So forget about like team defense like that.
Let's say, hey, we don't want to help off
because this guy can really shoot
or we're having a trouble with the role man
or whatever it is.
That situation becomes even statically
in a one-on-one situation,
it's still about making them uncomfortable.
If you allow a player
who behind the scenes is doing workouts
where he's chaining together dribble combinations
and hitting tough shots off the dribble,
and you allow him to do that in an NBA game,
he's going to make them.
You have to get up underneath them
to make them uncomfortable,
to make it so that they don't feel like
they're just in a groove in the gym by themselves,
but rather they're in more of a rock fight type of environment.
That's why it's so important.
It's one of the defining characteristics of this Thunder team.
And then they add on to it
with very specific personnel strengths.
they make it exceptionally hard to deal with.
Like having a real rim protector in Chet Home Grid, right?
So you have real length at the rim.
Having a ton of speed and rotation
so that even when a team does make their correct read,
they can recover out of it much of the time.
Outside of that second quarter where Randall got going,
O'KC pretty much handled Minnesota's offense.
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Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers and guess what? We have some big news.
What's the news, huge news? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas, we invented a podcast.
Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a first people to do podcasts.
Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.
a trend. But this one's extra
special. So how do we actually
come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys?
I honestly don't remember. I think it was
on a call about what we should call it.
Well, we were thinking I'm
originally calling it
one of the early names
of our band before Jonas Brothers
was... This is how you guys remember it going down?
Yes. I have a very different memory of this.
We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast
where people could call in and say, hey Jonas.
And then I wrote down on my little note
had Hey Jonas and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.
But thanks for remembering that, guys.
Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
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Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel.
help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
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Last night, a blown call changed a game.
This morning, the internet lost its mind.
Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
That's where Sports Slice comes in.
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Every episode, we're cutting through the noise.
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And then the offensive glass was huge.
I mean, again, 20 to 7 in second chance points.
They got 15 offensive rebounds.
They really kicked Minnesota's ass on the offensive glass.
Started early.
Isaiah Hartenstein was just basically manhandling Rudy Gober.
Kind of a weird Rudy Gober game.
We'll get to that in a minute.
And then from there, the perimeter players, just guys just out hustling that speed.
just out hustling Minnesota to lose balls.
Again, that bought OKC the margin to survive a bad Shea game.
You go into that game and you go, hey, Shea's going to have this type of game.
You think Minnesota is going to win, right?
They bought themselves a massive margin for error by controlling those two margins.
And then I thought the Thunder just got enough offensive juice down the line, right?
Like I thought Chet was amazing in this game.
He poured in 21 points, didn't work on the offensive glass, hit a couple of really nice,
like short pull-up jump shots against contests, like little 10-footers that are really
impressive shots that I think are going to help Oklahoma City in the playoffs. Did some work as a
role man, did some work in transition. Obviously, it was great on defense. It's a beautiful two-way
game from him. Isaiah Joe poured in 20, obviously hit four threes, but he also got open on cuts
a few times. He's actually sneaky, really good at this give and go kind of thing. We're like,
he'll run towards the ball and he'll catch, you know, pump fake, and then he'll pass the ball and just
immediately back cut. He ended up getting a couple bucks.
gets out of those in this game.
And then Jared McCain, man,
he catches a heater in that second half,
really blows the game open.
He already has natural chemistry
with Isaiah Hartnstein
as like a DHO partnership kind of thing.
Hartnstein's really good at those like Draymond passes, right?
We've seen this with him with Steph for years.
We're like,
Steph is sprinting off and then Draymond would like
throw between the legs pass and then just rock the dude
with the screen or behind the back pass
and just rock the dude with the screen.
Hartnstein was doing this.
that with Jared McCain in this game and helping him break free. And then McCain, those shots,
those are like extremely difficult movement shooting shots where like he's sprinting full
speed into perfect footwork, right? Like he at one going left and going right. And slow him down.
The one going to his left, right left, right, squaring up in midair. That's all textbook
fundamental movement shooting footwork. But it's also really difficult to do. It's really difficult
when you're running full speed from a leg strength standpoint to stop yourself on a dime and get straight up and down to knock the shot down.
Just really, really impressive shot making from Jared McCain.
They blew it open and the Thunder never looked back from there.
Last note on the Thunder before we move on, I can't say enough about how important Isaiah Hartnstein and Alex Caruso are to this team.
Obviously, Sam Presti pulled off a really impressive rebuild.
The Paul George trade to get Shagel's Alexander, all the gems he found in the draft,
the culture that him and Mark Dagnall have built in that organization.
But they also, like, Sam Presti absolutely nailed those two moves in the summer of 2024 for those two guys.
And they have just perfectly rounded out this team into a perennial contender.
Make that eight in a row now for the thunder as they ramp up for their title defense.
On the Timberwolf's front, first of all, I have to talk about this stuff with their effort.
The wolves looked like absolute garbage all week.
I know the Lakers needed a signature win,
but when I talk about the Lakers signature win,
I'm looking at like the next game and the Nuggets game.
I watched that Wolves game last Sunday against the Lakers,
and I was appalled at how bad they looked.
They turned around the next night and gave them 150 points to the Clippers.
They might be the worst regular season effort and energy team
of any real serious contending team that I've ever seen.
The closest thing I can think of, because I was thinking about this this morning,
like, can I remember a team where they like straight up weren't playing hard most of the time?
The 2017 calves was what I came up with.
I remember that entire season.
People were talking about the calves like potentially going to be losing in the Eastern Conference playoffs
because of how mediocre they looked all year.
I never was really worried and they were never worried.
But that's because nobody in the East was capable of beating them.
They knew Golden State was the.
only team that they really had problems with. And they were right. They mailed it in all regular
season. And if it wasn't for Avery Bradley hitting that little game winner where you got a favorable
bounce off the front of the rim, they would have swept to the Eastern Conference. This is not
the 2017 Eastern Conference. The West is brutal. Oklahoma City is clearly better than them.
And then Denver, L.A. and San Antonio at least and maybe Houston are all right there with you.
you need to be at your best for these matchups.
And it deeply bothers me how often the Timberwolves
literally practice playing bad basketball.
They talk about NBA teams don't practice.
Yes, they do.
That's what the 82 is for.
82 full-length opportunities.
Obviously, it has importance in the regular season standings.
But as we know, thanks to the playing,
you can get away with a lot of bad basketball
on the regular season and still make the playoffs.
These are your practices.
And it just bothers me how much they practice playing poorly.
It feels like they're trying to cheat the process.
And you guys know how high I am on Minnesota.
I think they have a real shot to win the whole thing.
Their talent levels off the charts.
But there is a process to becoming a championship team,
a six-month-long regular season practice.
and I just wish that the Timberwolves cared more
about becoming the best version of themselves.
It keeps bringing me back to Chris Finch
because I also hate the way they play in offense.
They don't play fast, they don't play with pace,
they don't play with Verve,
they don't move the basketball around,
they don't move around off the basketball,
they rarely run organized offense,
they rely almost solely
on the ability of their stars
to break the defense down off the bounce,
which can lead to some horribly ugly stretches of offense from them.
Them rarely playing hard
and having such a rudimentary offense relative to their talent,
it reflects poorly on Finch.
Now, it may not all be Finch's fault.
We've talked about this before.
Sometimes locker rooms just tune out their head coaches.
Sometimes you just need a change.
but if the wolves end up losing in a first round or second round series this year,
I would seriously consider making a change a head coach.
Try to bring in a new voice,
someone that can get more consistent engagement out of them in the regular season
and that can help revamp this offense.
I thought Julius Randall was mostly great.
That was a bright spot in this game.
I've talked about this before with Oklahoma City,
but if you're a big ball handler that can handle and shoot
and make basic passing reads,
you can have a lot of success against the thunder because they're kind of small.
And one of their bigs is kind of thin.
Julius was able to turn the corner on chat a couple times yesterday.
I thought Julius was more or less getting wherever he wanted on the floor today.
It's proof of concept in a lot of ways to me.
As I look at a potential Minnesota, Oklahoma City matchup in this year's playoffs,
it really comes down to turnovers.
If their stars can keep getting to their spots and if they can read the floor well,
enough to make Oklahoma City help or pay for helping, they can score against these guys.
And we know they can guard them. Today was another example of them having a pretty solid
half court defense game against OKC. But if they're turning the ball over constantly and they're
getting killed on the offensive glass, if they're getting demolished in the margins, they're
drawing dead in this matchup. But we've seen time and time again and can get to the rim
against these guys. Julius Randall can get wherever he wants against these guys.
I was pretty disappointed in Ant's third quarter in particular.
I thought the game was there for the taking.
She was having his worst game in the season.
Julius was playing really well.
Aunt had found some success over the course of the first half,
like getting to the rim, hit a couple of jump shots.
If he would have had a great third quarter,
the wolves would have gone up by 15 and they probably would have won that game.
But instead, I thought Aunt was brutally bad in that third quarter.
or especially on offense, where he repeatedly missed easy reads,
forced the issue with some really, really bad shot selection.
Doris Burke correctly called out one in particular where Julius Randall's,
who's hot and his jump shot feels good,
standing wide open on the right wing and Aunt just forces his way down the lane.
Again, with Ant, we all know the talent level is absurd,
but it's about him playing mature basketball,
reading the floor, making the right play more often than that.
the clips about him, you know, post-game pressers talking about how him shooting is always the right decision.
It's funny and it's endearing.
And I do want it to be aggressive.
I think that his kind of like spectrum from what I consider to be a good shot for him is very different than it is for most stars in the league.
But it has to be focused a little bit more.
And I thought he heard his team in that third quarter with the shot selection.
Rudy Gaubert.
Rudy's had a good season overall,
but he was incredibly frustrating in this game.
He actually defended really well.
His ability to shut the rim off on most of those sequences
was causing problems for Oklahoma City.
Had a couple of like lingering switches
where he helped slow down some shade drives too.
I thought he was defending really well.
But he got his ass kicked on the offensive glass.
Seven rebounds with how well Oklahoma City was crashing.
That's bad.
And then he can't finish anything around
rim on drop-offs and lobs, which has kind of always been the case with Rudy, but he's been
better this season with that stuff. And it was dramatically undercutting his defensive success in
this game. I did think Iyo Dissun Mood was a rare bright spot. He just came in and played with a lot
of pace and speed, which this team desperately needs when they're stuck in the mud offensively
the way they can get at times. I still believe in the wolves, but I'm teetering a little bit. I'm super
disappointed with how they've looked in the last 10 days or so.
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Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers, and guess what?
We have some big news.
What's the news, huge news?
We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.
We invented a podcast?
Well, we didn't invent it.
We just contributed to...
We're the first people to do podcasts.
Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there.
But this one's extra special.
So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey, Jonas, guys?
I honestly don't remember.
I think it was on a call about what we should call it.
Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.
Before Jonas Brothers was...
This is how you guys remember it going down?
Yes.
I have a very different memory of this.
We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast,
people could call in and say, hey, Jonas.
And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas,
and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.
But thanks for remembering that, guys.
Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcast.
Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy,
not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends,
me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman
help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,
help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Last night, a blown call changed the game.
This morning, the internet lost its mind.
Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
That's where Sports Slice comes in.
I'm Timbo.
Every episode, we're cutting through the noise.
Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines.
We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves.
Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear.
The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real.
From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down,
give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered.
Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.
Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.
All right, before we get out of here today, we're going to do a mini mailbag.
I've just got five questions for you guys.
A big part of the Lakers success, this is first question.
a big part of the Lakers success in the playoffs has to be LeBron.
Of course, Luca has to be playoff.
Luca, Reeves cannot be the playoff Reeves of the last years.
He has to step up in the playoffs like he has this year in the regular season,
and the role players have to star in their roles.
But LeBron is already looking gassed in a regular season game.
He has to be at least 80% of the LeBron James.
We know he has been previously in the playoffs.
if he is gassed in a game against Denver at home by halftime,
how will he play a seven game series against the Young Spurs in Oklahoma City?
Very good question.
I want to dive into this concept just a little bit.
Specifically, the boxes that have to be checked in order for the Lakers to achieve their goals this year,
which I think honestly, even if you ask the guys in the locker room on some truth serum,
I think they just say like they want to have a competitive showing.
They want to look like a good playoff team, regardless of where they live.
lose. If they lose in the first ride, second, or third round, they want to look like a good
competitive playoff team. They're checking lots of boxes along the way. Box one, Luca Dantuch
has to play like an MVP. For the most part this year he has, but he's had some down stretches,
particularly surrounding the Slovenia trip, which now we understand there was some backstory there.
And then two, he had this weird stretch surrounding the All-Star break on both ends,
basically early February, early March, 10-game span where he had 30 only twice out of 10 games.
but other than that he's been pretty good
and I would say especially over the last couple of weeks
he's been fantastic and the big thing is
and I have Luca fans all the time
that are like well what about his numbers? It goes deeper
than that. He's trimmed his turnovers down.
He's been at just three turnovers a game
since
since coming back from his
little brief hamstring scare.
That's really impressive.
He's cleaned up his turnovers from
they were up to almost five
at a point in the middle part of the season
right? And then two
the three point shot's been on for a long time.
So he was missing a lot of step back threes early in the year,
which was sparking transition opportunities.
He's cleaned that up.
He's been like nails on his pull up three for a while now.
And then three, he's been playing really good defense ever since the,
ever since coming back from his hamstring injury.
So like this is the Luca that is capable of helping the Lakers reach their goals.
Two, you need Austin Reeves to be in full rhythm.
I,
I really think that the biggest part that was missing from the Lakers during that couple of months there where everyone was out on them, including myself.
And the conversation even surrounding LeBron and like his fit, most of it came down to the fact that Reeves was just hurt and out of rhythm.
Like this stretch right here, these last four games or five games from Austin, this is the first time since early December that Austin Reeves has had consecutive 20 point games.
it's the first time since early December
that Austin Reeves has actually been
healthy and in rhythm
and he just completely changes
the flow of the team
offensively because he's one of the few guys
that can consistently get to the rim.
Luca doesn't get to the rim
he gets to the rim about half as often as he did
a couple years ago. So like
Austin's ability to get to the rim is vitally
important to this team.
Austin being back
and being in rhythm has made
the team look substantially better.
That's the second box checked, right?
That one of the most important things to, to remember as it pertains to the data,
because you guys keep here and, oh, the Lakers can't play with LeBron, the Lakers can't play with LeBron.
It is true that the numbers with LeBron with the guys early in the season sucked.
They were bad.
Why?
Because LeBron had sciatica.
And he missed training camp.
And he jumped in and ramped up in the middle of an NBA season in November.
And yeah, all the data from back then sucked.
the Lakers got their butts kicked with those three on the floor.
But that was a very different LeBron
and the LeBron that's healthy and in rhythm right now.
The LeBron Austin Luca Trio
in 222 minutes since Austin returned from his calf injury
is outscoring teams by 12 points per 100 possessions.
They've been fantastic since then.
And that's with only a 115 offensive rating,
which I think will skyrocket now that Austin's actually in rhythm
because for a while there he wasn't in rhythm.
If you add Marcus Smart to those three guys, that foursome on the entire season has a plus 15 net rating.
So like I don't think there's any a debate anymore as to whether or not Luca and Austin can be in rhythm alongside LeBron.
We just saw two examples in the last two games.
And again, we have a pretty large sample size of data here, right?
The third box that needs to be checked is their defense.
We needed to see the Lakers actually play mediocre defense.
They don't have the personnel to be a great defense,
but can they be a mediocre defense?
They're 12th in defensive ratings since the All-Star break.
I've been telling you guys,
12 to 15 is that range they need to be in there.
It's not the same as doing it for a whole season.
We'll see if they can sustain it over the final month,
but the Lakers have finally found their individual defensive ceiling as a team,
and they're finally getting to that level.
The fourth box, actually I'm going to add one more.
So the fourth box, before we get to LeBron, the fourth box is role player shooting.
They were having a huge problem paying off sequences throughout the regular season with guys hitting shots.
Marcus Smart has been over 40% from three for a few months now.
Marcus Smart is hitting.
Rui Hachamura is healthy in the lineup and hitting.
Osiris, healthy in the lineup and hitting.
Luca Donchich now is hitting like his threes at a much higher rate than he did in the early part of the season.
and you get a deal for Luke Canard done
that brings in another guy that's shooting.
So as a team, the three-point shooting
is dramatically better than where it was.
The fifth box is LeBron.
And I would argue,
this is the box that has to be checked
if the Lakers are going to surprise everyone
and win a playoff series.
Like, if we were shocked
and it was like, oh, my God,
the Lakers are playing against the thunder
in the Western Conference finals
and probably losing,
it would be because this fifth box gets checked.
okay so lucas reached the MVP level
awesome Reeves is back healthy and in rhythm
the team has found a groove defensively
and role players are hitting shots
the last piece is the LeBron piece
now I think in terms of play style
LeBron has done a great job since he came back
he has been great defensively
he's been great on the glass he's been great as a
connective playmaker
the last piece for LeBron is like you mentioned
he did look fatigued he's got to be able
get back into shape from his little break that he took and stay healthy throughout the rest of the
season. And then I think there's a higher level offensively that he needs to get to.
The catch and shoot threes. He's got to shoot the ball better from three. And then two,
he's got to start converting some of these post-ups. In that Nuggets game, for example,
a couple of those post-ups where he just gets stonewalled by Bruce Brown, he's got to win that
battle. The reason why he does is because if you look at the Oklahoma City matchup in particular,
but any matchup that has really good ball pressure guards that can cause problems for Austin Reeves
all of a sudden Austin Reeves his value offensively shifts a little bit and LeBron becomes more valuable
because he can attack out of the post. If that option isn't there for the Lakers, that's a problem.
And so the final box, this fifth box for the Lakers is LeBron's got to find a higher level offensively
as a catch and shoot guy and as a post-up player. If he can do that and all those other boxes
stay in a good spot,
role players keep hitting shots,
defense stays mediocre,
Austin and Lucas stay in rhythm,
LeBron brings a little bit more offensive punch,
that team is every bit as good as all of the second tier contenders.
That team can beat anybody, right, as an upset.
Do I think they'll win four playoff rounds?
No, I would be stunned if the Lakers won four playoffs.
Like, absolutely stunned.
I'd be stunned if they won three,
I'd be stunned if they made it to the Western Conference finals.
but that group checking those boxes,
I do think can win a first round series
and look competitive in a second round series
before getting eliminated.
This is a really good one.
Do you think the Lakers regret rescinding the Mark Williams trade?
I think he'd be a better fit than Aiton
and his defense has improved a lot.
Your biggest critique of him last season.
Love the show. I've been listening for yours.
Thank you so much for supporting the show.
This is a really interesting question.
Now, to be clear, I don't want to take a victory lap here
because I did not think Mark Williams was a good defender.
when I was watching the tape from Charlotte.
So I'm not sitting here saying like,
oh, the Lakers should have traded for Mark Williams.
No.
But the Sons correctly identified an opportunity with Mark
in his potential on defense.
And the health stuff has so far to this point
not been a major issue.
Mark Williams,
the Mark Williams we've seen in Phoenix,
that's been an elite drop coverage big.
That has been a guy that's had utility as a rebounder
and as a finisher on offense.
that guy would certainly be a big help for the Lakers.
Now, the one complication I'd add here is the Sons are running a lot of drop coverage,
like deep drop coverage with Mark Williams and it's working.
The Lakers do a lot more switching,
and they don't have a lot of guys that are like great at getting over the top of screens and funneling.
So I don't think it would have looked as good defensively with the Lakers as it did with Phoenix.
But yeah, in retrospect, given new information,
which is that turns out Mark Williams is a good defensive player
and turns out he was able to play this season.
Yeah, like in retrospect,
he would have been a great fit for the Lakers.
But again, we only have the information
we had available at the time.
And the information at the time was
he had really bad defensive tape in Charlotte
and he had health issues.
So I'm not going to like blame the Laker.
Like I don't think Rob Polinka missed out on Mark Williams.
I just think in retrospect,
now knowing what we know,
he would have been a good fit.
Next question.
How do you feel about San Antonio's
experience. I know they haven't made the playoffs as a unit together, but they have two championships,
winning vets in cornet and Barnes, Fox is a playoff, but Wembe carried his team in France to their
finals as a teenager. And he carried France in the Olympics to a silver medal versus the U.S.
in a really good game where he was the entire game's leading score. He is no stranger to high
pressure scenarios. So I will say specifically with Wemby, you've got to take like the Wembe part
and kind of set it aside. And then there's like the rest of the
team because my kind of recalibration with the spurs in terms of their youth separates
whenby from the other young players.
Wembe is so good defensively right away that like I don't think he's going to have as much
of a difficulty translating to the playoffs.
I'm not going to read the harp on this because we've talked about it a lot.
The comp that I would use as Anthony Davis in New Orleans walked into the playoffs and was a monster.
Why? Because he's a defense, a defensive player who's an awesome play finisher.
So there's just like a ton of damage that he's going to do no matter what.
Even if he does struggle to shoot, even if he does struggle with some physicality,
he's just still going to be deeply impactful.
It's the other younger guys that I worry about.
The playoffs have such a unique feel in the sense that like the pressure mounts immediately.
You can see players crumble mentally.
Every team, you get to the postseason and you have the,
within the first half of the first game, you're like, oh, that dude can't play in this series.
Or, oh, like, this dude's got a great matchup, right?
Like certain things scream off the screen right away in the postseason.
There are going to be very intentional efforts to play the Spurs guards into their weaknesses.
Even though there are experienced players there, Cornett has experience, as you mentioned.
Harrison Barnes has experience, as you mentioned.
Even Wembe has been in some big games, as you mentioned.
But I specifically worry about like Steph Castle, Devin Vassell,
Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, these guys having like, oh, they missed their first two or three-threes,
and now the pressure's mounting, and it just gets really tough.
And what happens is the defense is almost exaggerate the way that they,
tilt their game plan towards those weaknesses
until you prove that you can beat them.
And so again, I will say, to be clear,
we're about to do our contender rankings.
I absolutely think the Spurs can win the championship.
I do not think it's the same as like OKC two years ago.
I think that this Spurs team,
because the Wembe problem is so unique,
I think they're very capable of going on a title run this year.
But I do think it'll have to be with,
them dealing with some downturns from their younger players because NBA history just tells us guys.
Again, like, my dad used to say this to me that's the truth.
Like, the best indicator of future performance is past performance.
Like, that works for individuals, but it also works when we look at the rest of the league.
We got to learn from history.
And history just tells us that these teams tend to struggle a little bit.
Now, what usually ends up happening is like the second playoff run.
a lot of times teams can be ahead of schedule.
OKC last year.
The Kevin Durant, James Hardin,
Russell Westbrook, OKC teams, right?
Like sometimes they can be ahead of schedule
once they start getting playoff experience.
But is, I straight up cannot think of an example
of a team having their very first playoff run together
as a bunch of young players,
just ripping through and winning the trophy.
It's just exceedingly rare.
But again, like if you're a Spurs fan,
which you've got to cling to there in terms of your hope,
is specifically the Victor Women Yama thing.
Like, so for instance, like,
Steph Castle, the Hornets game,
Victor Women Yama
dominates the Hornets game,
literally just because he shuts off the rim
against Musa Diabate and Ryan Kalkbrenner.
And it's kind of another side thing
that I've been thinking about with the Spurs.
I don't think you can beat the Spurs
if your centers can't provide real offensive utility.
I mean, like, not just dunks,
but like have some sort of high-level shooting talent
or some high level posting up talent.
Like your bigs have to be skilled against Wemby.
Because if Wembe can guard your center
and just park his ass underneath the basket,
you're drawing dead against the Spurs.
And the Hornets were a classic example of that.
Their offense could not sustain anything
against the spurs because of what Wembe was doing
to Musa Diabate and Ryan Kalkbrenner
just camping out in the paint, right?
How many times did we see Musa DiBate catch on the roll
and be like, oh, fuck, like what am I going to do?
Right.
Like it just is really difficult.
Steph Castle demonstrated his amazing lob chemistry with Victor Wemanniama in that game.
We've talked a ton about that.
He just has such a great natural feel for where and when to hit Wemby on his roles.
So like right out the gates in the postseason,
I think Wemby's going to get four or five lob dunks a game
and be the best defensive player in the history of the entire league
when he's shutting defenses down.
That just gives him such an enormously high floor that even if he doesn't hit threes,
which he's been shooting the three extremely well as of late.
And even if he doesn't do well in his ISOs,
he's just going to have such a profoundly impactful performance.
So their margin is big.
Their defense is great,
which will keep them in all their games.
I just worry about their guards.
I think a lot of it's going to kind of disseminate down to
Deer and Fox pick and roll.
And he's just not as good as some of the other ball handlers
that they're going to face around the Western Conference.
Two more and we're out of here.
Love the show.
You're one of the few people I consistently go to
for in-depth and thoughtful basketball analysis.
Really appreciate the dedication to the attention and the attention to detail in each game.
Love it when you call it specific plays in each game.
What other channels, podcast shows would you recommend for your listeners to tune into?
I often go to channels like JD for his nerd highlights, Zach Lowe, nerds, et cetera.
Okay, so this is complicated.
First of all, thank you for the kind words and for supporting the show.
So I used to listen to a lot more basketball content before I worked in the space.
I my entire life involves basketball to the point where it can get to be a little much sometimes
obviously I cover the league and I watch a ton of games I also am a fan so like you know
Lakers games in particular like I watch them as a fan you know like a lot of the games that I watch
for the rest of the league I watch in the mornings and I watch on watch the film and I like deep
dive into the film and I deep dive into numbers a lot of times like I'll just hang out with my wife and
watch a Lakers game and I'll relax and try to like enjoy it, right? I play a ton of basketball. I'm
playing pick up twice a week and I play in a men's league twice a week. So I'm playing four times a week.
My wife used to play in college. We do shooting workouts together. So like we do like I go shoot with
her. So like I live and breed the game of basketball all the time. And so I was kind of looking
for a spot where I could get a break. And that like downtime when I get to listen to stuff is when
I've been taking that break. And so I listen to a lot of audio books. I listen to a lot of
music during that sort of time.
So like I don't listen to anywhere near as many basketball podcasts as I used to.
The two that I regularly listen to are one, Zach Lowe, who I think is excellent at his job.
He's just like kind of like a role model for me, someone that I look up to.
So he's a guy that I watch a lot.
And then not as much as I'd like to, but I'd say that I probably catch a Zach Lowe episode about once every other week.
And then the Laker Film Room podcast with Pizzias and Darius Soriano.
If you're a Laker fan and you're not listening to Pete and Darius, you're missing out.
They are diehard real Laker fans that go back decades and decades and decades.
They do such a fantastic job of capturing like the culture of the Laker fan base in their show.
But at the same time, it's just a pure love of the game that comes out in the way that they break it down.
Pete and Darius each kind of bring their unique element to it.
I just think they're awesome.
If you're looking for a team specific pot as a Lakers fan, I'd highly recommend that one.
You mentioned nerdsush guys.
just my buddies.
Like I, I, I, I, um, was texting with Carson literally during the Thunder Wolf's game.
I just loved talking basketball with him.
Like, he came on the show to do the, uh, a BAM 83 thing the other day.
I just love the nerdsetsch guys.
They're, uh, I'm just really big fans of their work.
But yeah, again, I don't listen to, uh, anywhere near as many basketball podcasts and
things like that as I used to just simply because I've been looking for a break.
Last question.
Hey, Jason, love your show and the depth of analysis you provide all.
of us viewers keep up the great work. Thanks again for the kind of words. My question to you is about
NBA offense sequencing. I'm a big baseball fan and something that is obviously so important for
pitchers is how they sequence their pitches. For those of you guys who don't know what he means when
he says sequence pitches, it's just like setting up like fastball off speed in a way that tries to
get the batter off balance essentially. When I watch NBA offenses, I always wonder how teams go
about calling their actions. Now, what points in the game are they most effective?
Do teams have a first 15 reference to football, like a set of plays, like a script that you run on your first drive, or a set of actions that they know they'll start the game with?
And as the game goes on, do they adjust accordingly?
Or do teams have different actions for different opposing team lineups?
Even on a possession to possession basis, most teams have a couple of actions that they know are advantageous for them.
So how do they decide how to sequence them?
I never hear this being praised or criticized about a team.
So I'm very curious about your thoughts on this.
Thanks again for all you do, Jason.
Thanks again for the kind of words.
They, to your point, the pitch sequencing, that's literally my favorite part about baseball.
I grew up playing baseball.
I grew up playing Little League and I was a pitcher for most of my childhood.
So I always, like, loved that.
And when I'm watching baseball, it to me is the most fascinating chess match part of it.
The script part in the NFL is really fascinating, right?
So like you have a list of 15 plays or whatever that you're going to run on your first drive.
And they're all meant to build on each other and set each other up, right?
Basketball games have so much more flow side to side that it's different.
difficult to do that. But what teams will do is, one, they almost always have a play that they're
going to run to start a half or a quarter, right? So like, uh, and out of timeouts, too. So out of
any sort of stoppage, whether it's first play the game, first play out of a timeout, first play of a new
quarter, you're going to have a set play. And that set play is going to be something that you
want to start the game with, set the tone with, right? Usually it's going to be designed to drop for a
wide open three or for a dunk, right? But from there, it's all flow. And what will end up
happening is a coach in their game plan will in the shoot around especially will be like hey here are
like four or five different actions that we want to run tonight because they we think they will
work against this team their personnel and the way they're guarding right so like maybe it'll be a drop
coverage beater maybe it'll be like a specific play to attack a certain matchup that they think that
they have a favorable matchup in maybe it's a high drop beater. Maybe it's a high drop beater.
or a blitzbeater, right?
Like, you look at the team you're playing.
Okay, we're playing the Lakers.
They're switching a lot.
Okay, we're playing Boston.
They're running deep drop coverage.
Okay, we're playing the nuggets.
They're going to be up at the level.
Okay, we're playing the Warriors.
They're going to be playing three small guards most of the game.
Like, whatever it is,
you're going to have like a little kind of set of like four or five actions
out of your playbook that you're like,
these are the ones we really want to get to tonight.
And those actions have multiple reads.
So, like, a lot of times, to your point about sequencing,
a lot of times the sequence is actually just the same play over and over again,
but you're just looking for a different read.
So, like, maybe it's a play where you run an inverted ball screen for your big,
like the one that they constantly run in Charlotte with like Lamello back screening
for Musa Diabate at the elbow as he rips right.
That's a play that Charlotte starts almost every game with.
The first play you run it, you might get a dunk, right?
but what you do is usually if a play works, you keep running it.
Because what ends up happening is usually a team makes an adjustment.
So maybe you run the exact same thing,
except for this time Lamello Ball's man hangs back to help on Moussa Diabate's drive.
And now all Moussa has to do is turn around and pitch it back to Lamello and he's wide open.
If Lamello catches there, it probably flows into another part of the action, right?
Like we've seen that with the Lakers horn sets, right?
like the LeBron will have the post entry will come in to LeBron at the elbow and Luca will cut off of him.
And LeBron will look for Luca and if Lucas open, he'll hit him.
But if he's not, he's going to flow into that ball screen off of Jackson Hazer, D'Airdre Aton.
If LeBron can get a look there, he'll take it.
If the big man shows and Aiton's open, he'll throw the ball to Aiton in the pocket.
If they successfully defend it, it flows into this dribble handoff with Austin Reeves coming out of the corner,
which then flows into another ball screen.
Like all these plays, a lot of times what you'll see is, okay, this play's working.
We're getting a good look out of it.
Let's keep running it until they show they can stop it.
And just take the different reads that are available.
And then if that doesn't work, maybe you try something different.
But you have like four or five different plays that you'll periodically go to.
A lot of times they'll go to them off of made baskets.
So off of misses, if there's a transition opportunity, you want to push.
But if there's any sort of slow walk the ball up, the coach might call.
play from the sideline and they'll try to get into their action.
And I generally think the teams that run more organized offense perform better.
But again, you're not going to have a script like 15 plays.
You're usually going to have a play that you come out of every time out or dead ball situation
with or in a slowdown walk the ball at the court.
And again, you're usually just going to spam that action until they show that they can defend it.
All right, guys, it's all I have for today.
My voice is going to get a rest for a couple days.
Hopefully when you guys see me on Tuesday, I sound a lot better.
I'm recording this on Sunday.
Again, I always appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.
We got some fun game reactions for Tuesday plan.
I will see you guys.
Hey guys, it's us and the Jonas Brothers.
I'm Joe.
I'm Kevin.
And I'm Nick.
And guess what?
We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.
We invented a podcast?
Well, we didn't invent it.
We just contributed to it out.
We're the first people to do podcasts.
We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions.
Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it.
But, you know, tired and sick.
Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
Another podcast from some SNL, late night comedy guy, not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends
on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Last night, a blown call changed a game.
This morning, the internet lost its mind,
and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
That's where Sports Slice comes in.
I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise,
breaking down the biggest moments in sports
and giving you the real story behind the headline.
And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves.
their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment,
and the stuff nobody gets to hear.
Listen to SportsSlice on the Iheart radio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
And for more, follow Timbo Slicelife 12
in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.
Winning on Clay is an art.
The rallies are relentless,
and at the French Open, only the toughest survive.
I'd know. I competed there for decades.
Join me, Renee Stubbs,
on the Renee Stubbs' tennis podcast
for no nonsense breakdowns of the biggest matches,
the toughest players,
and the moment's set to find Roland Garris.
Jen, she's an outsider to win the French fame.
And she likes Clay.
Listen, Lerabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now
and I actually can win on any surface.
Listen to the Renee Stub's tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app,
Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports.
This is an IHeart podcast.
Guaranteed Human.
