The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - State of the Warriors with Sam Esfandiari

Episode Date: March 29, 2025

Sam Esfandiari of the “Light Years” podcast on the Golden State Warriors joins the show to discuss the experience of rooting for Jimmy Butler, how the role players of Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, and Gary Payton II could make or break a playoff series, Jonathan Kuminga’s fit on the team, his optimism or not about a playoff run, and more.  Timeline 4:15 - Start 7:15 - Jimmy Butler experience  24:00 - Importance of the role players 33:30 - Jonathan Kuminga’s fit 43:00 - Playoff run chances (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) #Volume #Herd Follow Jason Timpf on social: https://twitter.com/_JasonLT https://www.instagram.com/jtimpf15/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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have played 20 games with Jimmy Butler. They have a little bit of a break here before they play against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. And I'm expecting Steph Curry to make his return. But I thought it was a great time for us to just kind of zoom out and take a look at the early returns of Jimmy Butler with the Warriors. I was talking about this on the radio the other day. But the Warriors and the Lakers to me have undergone such complete turnover in their play style and what they're capable of over the of the time since the deadline, then we almost have to completely re-evaluate them

and what they're capable of. And I can think of nobody better than Sam. First of all, how are you, man? It's been a long time since we've done a pod together, but I'm looking forward to this. It's going to be fun. Oh, I'm good. Overall good.

That was a, it's a recording this after the heat game. That was a emotional game. I don't know how else to put it. It felt like a big one and then it felt pretty deflating. But overall, it's been good in Warriors' Land. since they made the Jimmy Butler trade.

Technically 21 games, he sat one of them, but I'll take 16 and 5. Yeah, that's right. He did sit out one of them. I was joking with you last night because I've watched quite a bit of heat lately just because they've had a few national TV games and we've covered them on the show a little bit. And they've been so lifeless. And then last night, they just had it. They had the verve you said to me and I, like, you and I, every time we've talked about the game,

we've always been just drawn to just competitiveness and competitors and that nasty streak. And like, you were like, you know what? I got to hand it to the to the heat. They wanted it. Like they clearly, this meant something to them and they went after it. They got it done. Yeah. I mean, to me, if you don't understand how good BAM autobi is, throw that game on.

He guarded Jimmy Butler, which like how many starting centers can just, you know, you could decide, you know, from opening tip, we're going to have you guard the other team's Star Wing. It's like him and Draymond. And lo and behold, those are two guys who tend to punch above their weight in the playoffs. Every year they make the playoffs. So, you know, hat tip to them. Heat culture. It's a real thing.

Even if I was wondering if it was a real thing after they went on a losing streak when they lost Jimmy. It's still a real thing. Pat Riley is a Hall of Famer for a reason. So we've had 20 games. I, you know, I think the experience of being. a true fan in basketball is really unique. I've been kind of embracing it because I know when LeBron retires, I'm going to struggle with that because I, like, I wouldn't really have that type of

fanhood anymore because I live in Tucson, Arizona. I don't really have a team, so to speak. And when LeBron retires, I just won't have that kind of like sentimental attachment to anything. And so rooting for Luca Donchich, like actually rooting for Luca Donchich has given me such a unique experience like learning about him as a basketball player. I think I think truly rooting for a player you just learn so much. And so you've been truly rooting for Jimmy Butler now for 20 games. What has that experience been like? What have you been surprised by? What have you really loved about his game? Just talk a little bit about what that's been like. I mean, he was one of my favorite non-warriers over the last decade. I always found myself rooting for the heat in the playoffs. You know,

Eastern Conference, I have no attachment to anyone, and I just love the way they play. And, you know, he's had some memorable playoff mode. So I felt like I knew him. But to your point, it's just not the same as when you're watching every game opening tip to the end. And so the things that jump out to me are like, I thought he would be a good fit on the Warriors because there's such a premium on IQ and ball movement and passing. And it's gone like five levels above what I thought.

it would be. I thought there'd also be a little friction because he's traditionally been a little of an ISO player and the Warriors are traditionally not that type of team. And it's been the complete opposite. I mean, he's like, he's essentially playing like Andre Godala, but with the ability to get to the rim and the free throw line. So that's been surprising. Other than that, I don't know that the other aspects of it have necessarily been that surprising. We've gone through kind of the ebbs and flow of how he asserts himself. He's a a interesting player in the fact that he has a superstar impact on the game. Like when you look at all the advanced metrics, he always grades out as one of the 10 to 15 best

players just in terms of impacting winning. But he's not really an offensive superstar. You think of those playoff moments where he scored 40 plus and you think he's more of kind of your traditional, I'm going to go get a bucket type of guy. And that's been the thing that watching him more, it's like, yeah, there'll be moments. he does it, but that's really not his game at all. So I guess that's kind of been the other surprising thing. Yeah, you know, it's fascinating because I think you could make the case that the warriors are best equipped to pull superstar level winning impact out of Jimmy Butler in this phase of his career. You sent me some numbers earlier, and we're going to talk about it with Jonathan Kaminga here

in a little bit, but just some of the difference in the on-off numbers between him with Kaminga versus a guy like Ghi Santos, where it's like crisp, quick decision. making that all fits within the flow of what they do in their five out offense versus a guy that like has more of a specific lane that he thrives in. And if things are operating in that lane, then he looks super impactful. But when it gets outside of that, he can struggle. And like, I think with Jimmy's versatility, there is a downside. And I think we saw a little bit of it last night in the sense that like if you, without Steph, if he's entirely out of the picture because he's injured, you're not going to get 25 and

from him every night. That's not necessarily a level he can get to anymore. But within the context of Steph being available, he's more than capable of lifting these bench units and they've been really good this year with Steph off the floor

with Jimmy on. Like they've been astonishingly good. I want to say the net rating is almost plus 20 per 100 possessions. They're killing teams in that context. It is a little bit of a different journey and I think there's some, like if you're if I was playing devil's advocate on the trade,

I would say over the course of the rest of this year and next year, when Steph misses time, this team is going to look rough because of the fact that Jimmy is not necessarily the guy that can scale up in that specific ability. But ultimately, that doesn't matter because this team isn't accomplishing anything unless Steph is healthy and available anyway. And in that context, his versatility is a superstar trait.

And it does pull everything together. You mentioned the Andre Guadala piece. Like, to me, where you see so much of that is just like his nose for the ball and his ability to make reeds in screening situations, when to slip, when to curl, when to do all these little different things. One of the things from watching Jimmy very closely with the Warriors that stood out to me is he's one of the best people in the league at high pointing the basketball. So like in a lot of the switching that teams use against Golden State, he'll end up with these like inside seals.

And they'll float the ball up. And he just gets it every damn time. And that has allowed him to kind of like manufacture pressure on the rim off the ball, which has been a big part of his like spacing alongside his step. And so I think like I think the part that is, you mentioned it is pressure to the rim. And that's really the key. His superstar trait offensively that he's bringing. And it's coming through all these different things as a read and react player,

sealing, posting, ISOs, all that kind of stuff. he applies real consistent night-to-night rim pressure next to Steph, and that is unlocking a lot of that offensive upside. Yeah, and to your point on the IQ, the game that also sticks in my mind from a defensive standpoint is the one against the Milwaukee Bucks, it's called a week ago now. Steph sat that game.

They just lost to the Yokic-Lis Nuggets, just an all-around bad loss. Like you shouldn't lose those games at home, right? And so then they go play Milwaukee and they sit step because he's kind of banged up. And so, you know, you think it's going to be a loss. And it's the opposite. And that was probably Draymond Green's like best defensive game of the year. He took Janus completely out of it.

And the first thing Draymond said in post game is it's easier for me to do that and ignore help obligations when I have someone like Jimmy who, you know, can just say, I got you. I'll take care of that. You just, you meet him and have. court, you take them one-on-one, that sort of defensive stuff. And that's something they've been missing for literally since they had, you know, Andre Godal or Andrew Boggart. And just like this, you know, kind of embarrassment of riches in terms of like high IQ defenders. They finally have someone who can organize them and get them going in addition to Draymond. And so, yeah, to your

point, like he does fit exactly what the warriors need and fits exactly perfectly next to Steph and Draymond on both sides of the ball. Honestly, now it puts a lot of pressure on the other pieces around them because I like the way that three-man construct works, but I'm also not naive to the fact that there are certain weaknesses that need to be masked by younger legs, by shooting, by defense, some other things there. And that's kind of really where my focus in the warrior season is for the rest of the way. Yeah, you know, we're going to talk about that concept in a minute, but like there's a certain

amount of this with the Warriors that is theoretical. but what to me is not theoretical is Steph, Jimmy, and Draymond. Like, I know what I'm going to get out of the three of them in the playoff context. It feels like a known commodity to me. You know, I remember when you're talking about the defense, the, I remember a lot of that hesitancy surrounding this deal with Andrew Wiggins. And part of the reason why it was like, when they won the title, it was Andrew Wiggins who was picking up Luca full court in applying all that ball pressure.

It was Andrew Wiggins who was. picking up Jason Tatum full court and playing him into the tough series that he had in the NBA finals. And like, I think there's a certain amount of like, Jimmy's not going to be as good as Andrew at just guarding the other team's best player every night. But I think there's two elements to that that have kind of allowed it to work anyway. One, Moody's been more ready for that than I think people realized. Like, you talked about this a lot in the time leading up to the trade and you were spot on on this. And like, again, like, there's a, there was a lot of negativity surrounding the Jimmy trade leading up to it. And you were consistent. He's Jimmy fucking Butler. Just go get

him. And we figure out the rest later. And one of the things that you kept talking about at the time was we need to clarify the rotation. And it has in a lot of ways clarified the rotation because Moses Moody has stepped into that role. And it's been consistent. He hasn't had to worry about getting his minutes janked with. He's had this role every single night he's taking that specific responsibility. And where Jimmy is better than Andrew Wiggins on the defensive end of the floor is playmaking. Just all of these little things as like peeling off and gambling and like making plays in passing lanes where he's a little bit more of an instinctual defensive playmaker than Andrew Wiggins.

And the bottom line is statistically the defense has been better. They've been the second best defense in the league over a 21 game span now. That's a fourth of the season. And so I think that's relatively undeniable at this point. I want to talk about these role players, though, for a minute, because I agree with you. Like, when we know what Steph, Jimmy, and Dremond are, let's start really quickly. Before we get into like, comminga, are you happy and confident in Pods and Moody as the two other guys in that lineup? Throw in GP2 as well.

Yeah, look, they were not particularly good against Miami and, to a lesser degree, Atlanta, in these Steffless games. But in general, they have kind of fit the bill when we've had Steph, Jimmy, and Draymond operational, where they have a scaled down role where their responsibility is really just to, you know, in Moody's case, pure 3&D player, right? You're guarding the ball. He's had some excellent games against like Jalen Brunson, for example, who could be a very tough cover and kind of, you're quintessential like, oh, if you can't guard the ball,

he's going to dice you up, right? Like that type of guy. And then ability to hit shots. because they're young players, they're a little consistent as well at that. And that's, for me, one of the bigger concerns with the Warriors is shot making outside of Steph Curry. Moses Moody is, I want to say, a 38% three-point shooter on the season. The shot looks pretty.

It looks like it's going in every time. But, you know, end of the day, he's not Clay Thompson. And very few players are, to be fair. But it's like, it is very much the young player thing where it's four for six, one night. 0 for 6 the next night. And that type of stuff in the playoffs could be really scary, particularly with how much the three-point shot is, you know, important in a playoff context.

And let's be honest, like how little shooting from the outside they're going to get from Dremont and Jimmy. I know Dremont's been a better three-point shooter last year and a half, but he's probably not going to hit five threes in the game. He's probably not going to take 10 threes. Most of his threes are kind of, you know, end of shot clock bailout possession type of of threes. So there's a lot of pressure on Moses Moody to fill,

I don't want to say the role Clay Thompson Phil, because that's just unrealistic. But like to fill the role that someone like a Harrison Barnes or an Andrew Wiggins did where if they're left alone in the corner, they hit it, you know, if they're left, you know, if you're sending two at the ball because you have Steph Curry, Draymond's getting downhill, then you have a man shading towards Jimmy, someone's open, not someone who's open,

will be Moses Moody or Brandon Pajamsky. And this applies actually even more so for pods. He just does more things than shoot the ball. They have to be able to hit those shots. So that's kind of my number one worry with them. But to your point on the defensive side, I actually feel pretty comfortable with this team, if they have a healthy version of Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler,

being able to get those young guys in position to succeed. And I think they're ready for the moment defensively. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.

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funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the eye heart. Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really

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it's just those guys making shots. I mean, I thought the Bucks game was such a perfect example of that. They put Brooke Lopez on Gary Payton down the stretch, and he just sits his ass right underneath the basket. And they're gaping off of pods, and the two of them, pods on the right wing and Gary on the left wing, get two just completely uncontested threes in crunch time.

They make them both, and it ends up being a big part of how they win. And, like, there's a certain amount of, like, to your point, like, even though Andre Guadala never had the reputation of being like this knock-down shooter, it always felt like he made the big ones that he needed to make in that corner. If it's a big game, it was going in.

Yeah, dude. And so, like, there's a certain amount of, like, Draymond was kind of like the one guy on the floor that you kind of had the ability to really help off of and feel like you were confident that he was going to miss more often than he made. And it just, like, you start to add that to two guys on the floor, maybe a third guy on the floor.

That's where it can get a little tricky. And so I do think that that's the weakness there. That said, I think you could make that same argument for some other teams around the league. I like really, I think the only team you, the only time I feel confident is just going to make shots if they're open is Boston. Like, they're going to make shots. Yeah. If they're open. But like, I could see, I see Oklahoma City potentially losing a playoff series missing threes. I see with like mediocre shooters getting left open. I see Denver potentially losing a series with the mediocre players hitting threes. The Lakers are another team that can put together groups

with Doreen, Finney Smith and Rui where all five guys are shooters. But even then, it's like, Austin Reeves is not the best catch-and-shoot guy in the world. Like, there's a version of it where he can go cold. And so I think there's a certain amount of it where it's like, I think we can't overlook the fact that they're going to be a great defense that gets out in transition and that has Steph Curry. And that, yes, these guys are going to have to knock down shots, but that's not necessarily a death sentence, if that makes sense.

Now as we go deeper into the bench, the Jonathan Caminga experience, I think, has been uneven. I thought he was really good in his first game back. What was that, Sacramento, if I remember correctly? I think it was. I think he was really good in that game, where everything was with an advantage, everything was towards the rim,

everything was geared towards, like, playing in the flow. But one of the big difference is, like, when you sent me the numbers this morning with him versus Guy Santos, to me, like, Jonathan Cominga has the ability to make certain reads, particularly as a cutter, when he sees like a lane open up, he'll run to the front of the rim.

And I think there is some value in that as a play finisher. But every other type of read and react situation on the court, he sorely lacks behind his teammates. And I think like there's a certain lack of ceiling with a guy like Guy Santos, but there's a certain predictability as a catch-and-shoot guy and as a guy who crashes the offensive glass every time and as a guy who makes decisions in read and react situations. And so, like, ultimately, I think there's a version of this

where Jonathan Kaminga's role could shrink considerably when they get into the postseason. How have you felt about their early returns with Kaminga alongside Jimmy and the crew and how he fits both in the short and long-term? I mean, so two different questions. In the long-term, I'm more bullish, on him figuring it out.

And he does do one specific thing that this older iteration of the Warriors really needs, which is he gets to the rim and he's hyperathletic. Look, they're an older team. Any young player who can play above the rim and can beat their man with their first step is welcome on this team. In theory, he should also be a hyperactive defender that has not necessarily shown up. But we've seen tons of young wings with his physical profile who look lost defensively and then around year five or six, it just clicks.

Andrew Wiggins, probably the most obvious example. He went from being kind of having a terrible reputation defensively in Minnesota to almost making, you know, all NBA defensive teams, right? So it happens all the time on that end. You can't discount the physical tools. Now, in the short term, I'm far less optimistic because to your point, we're 10 games away from the playoffs, and, you know, they don't have 50 games for them to figure it out.

And the thing that pops to me when I watch him is he wants to occupy all the same spots on the floor that Jimmy Butler is. But Jimmy's better at him at everything. And so he hasn't figured out how to adapt to that. And because he's a young player, and to your point, I don't want to say feel is lacking, but he's just far less mature mentally in terms of reading the game than the other guys on the team. You know, probably the biggest advantage the Warriors have going into a playoff series. is Steph, Jimmy, and Dremond will be a step ahead of almost every one of their opponents. Those are three of the five to seven smartest players in the NBA.

What they lack in foot speed, they make up for a mental processing speed. So it means the other two guys have to know how to play off of that. And Kuminga, combination of both being young and maybe not as developed as the Warriors would have liked him to be in year four. And let's just be realistic, he missed two plus months with an injuring. and he's trying to get integrated into a brand new team, that puts him in a really rough position, particularly since he's not a shooter.

You can't plug him in to Moses Moody's role where Moses Moody offensively is essentially just going to be, you know, standing in the corner. Most of the actions are finding him camping out in the weak side corner that if they help off of him, he gets a wide open three. That's not going to work for Cumminga. So to your point,

if he can read the game at the speed the Warriors like to play, you could actually take advantage of him as a cutter, take advantage of the athleticism, the ball movement. Stuff we've seen Warriors teams do for a decade, right? Where you're just like, how does, honestly, GP2 master of this, right? He can't really shoot the ball. I know he's shooting the ball well now, but nobody guards him like he's a shooter. But he knows exactly how to play off of Stefan Graham on.

And he always seems to find himself, you know, cutting baseline for a wide open layup or dunk. In theory, that's how Kumanga can thrive with this team. It just hasn't come to fruition. And, I mean, maybe I'm a pessimist about it, but like, 10 games, and these are not games that they can just give him space either. They're like a half game out of being in the play-in. So they need to treat every game like it's a real game, which leads to scenarios like the Atlanta game where he was playing poorly and he did not play more than four minutes

in the second half. How is he going to figure it out if he only plays four minutes to the second half? But at the same time, the Warriors have to win games. So he's just, I don't see how this solves itself in the second half. the short term. I'm so glad you brought up how much this sucks for Jonathan because it really does. You know, there was so much pessimism surrounding whether or not a deal would actually get made at all in like late January that it turned into a situation where it almost looked like, oh, it's Jonathan's time now. Like this is about to go the other direction and this is going to go towards, we're leaning towards

the future. Here are the keys. Jonathan, you're going to get to do your thing for extended stretches the game have a long leash, get to make mistakes. And it radically flipped to now you're coming back. There's no way you have a starting spot. The only version of this where you contribute to the team is where you become this read and react player. And like, I think, you know, I think you have to be good at one of two things to be a good offensive player around Steph, Jimmy, and Draymond. You either have to be an excellent shooter or an excellent read and react player. And he's neither. And that just puts him into a really tough position accentuating his game because to your point about occupying all the same spots on the floor, your value as a basketball player is unique to your team. It has nothing to do

with what your talents are in a vacuum. It's all theoretical in a vacuum. On your team, it's what you can do within that group. And there's no version of this where he's going to be playing in the playoffs with neither of Jimmy or Steph on the floor, meaning the game is going to have to be predicated with him playing off of those guys. And it's just going to be like, again, when Jimmy has had success offensively without Steph, it's been this whirling dervish of these read and react guys

relocating, cutting, screening, slipping, all this kind of stuff around him, and that part has worked, but it's just not going to work that way like in the postseason context when Jonathan Kaming is out there, he's not going to be able to have the same kinds of opportunities he did before the deadline. And so it's just difficult

and honestly I do feel bad for him and like I do wonder what this does look like in the big picture. because Steph talked about it the other day. It seems to me like there's been an organizational commitment that they're trying this next year too. Right. So it seems like this is a two-year window. Like, we're going for it.

We're going to try to make this happen. And like you talk about 10 games, I don't necessarily see a version of this where he blossoms into that player next year either. And so I think this could be a challenging stretch for Jonathan in his career. And I'm really curious just to see how he adapts to it because before the deadline,

he had leverage in the sense that he could go to the media and be like, what the hell are we doing here? Like, we're not very good. Why am I not getting an opportunity to show what I can do? Like, what's the deal? Whereas, like, there is this clear, obvious championship ceiling with the Warriors now. And Jonathan has to find a way to kind of conform into that. And it's just difficult.

Yeah. I mean, he's kind of, it's tough break. I don't know what else to say. Like, the pre-trade deadline warriors, I love how you pointed out Jimmy Butler's defensive playmaking. I would say the number one thing they last. on both ends of the floor was playmaking, pre-trade, and Jimmy addresses both those things. Now, he's not a perfect player, you know, like the perfect edition would have been Yannis.

He also addresses both those things, considerably higher ceiling, right? So, but he, you know, now that he takes care of your wing playmaker, a guy who you can run a pick and roll for, an ISO operate out of the post, those were all the best places that Coomingo was starting to find success. I don't even say he's found total successor. That's what he was starting to develop. And he's just, he's not equipped at this point to be Harrison Barnes or Andrew Wiggins. Who is who they need?

Like in a perfect world, if he was ready to be the 2015 Harrison Barnes who could hit open shots and knew how to play off of staff, Iguadole, Drayman Clay, or Andrew Wiggins, who's proven he could do that in many ways, that is his ideal role. I think he would be starting games. I know he would be closing games as that third front court player, but the shot's not there. He's also just a hesitant shooter. He's not three points.

That's not really his game. And, and, you know, he's not there defensively either. He's just kind of in a rough spot. It's easier to play Guy Santos because he's Santos is those things, even if it's, you know, with a lower ceiling. The hesitance is almost like worse than the actual not making of the shot. Because, like, defenses prey on that with short closeouts. And they just bait on the fact.

that we don't even think you're going to take it, like, let alone, let alone knock it down. But I mean, you know, I talked earlier about, like, the runways that he operates on, like, these gaps that appear around the rim where he'll just jet to the front of the rim. And the truth of the matter is, is as the defenses get better, those runways just don't appear very often. And it becomes about playing in tight space, and it becomes about making those decisions and split second processing speed and all that kind of stuff. And it's just, it's just tough. Let's get, zoom out a little bit more. Okay. So, 16 and 4 with Jimmy.

We know that there have been a handful of impressive wins in there, but that they've played a relatively light schedule. Sure. As we go down the stretch of the season, they do have some big games? Like, I know they have one against the Lakers. I think,

do they want more against the Thunder. I think they played, I think they played. They do not play the Thunder again. That they do have Denver, at least one more time. And, I think they get Houston again, too, don't they?

They might. Yeah. I feel like they've played Houston. They do actually, you're right. It's one of their last games. I swear they played Houston four times this year. I felt like they played Houston. Well, with the end season,

I guess they played them three times in one month. Yeah, yeah, there you go. They also have the clippers at the end of the season, last game of the season. There's a very realistic chance that will literally decide, you know, the seven seed, six, six, seven, whatever it may be. So, yeah, they have a, you know, what, what sucks about this step injury is Atlanta and Miami looked like easy wins with Steph Curry and they drop both of those. Like this road trip really should have been where they picked up the easy wins.

You got a Pelicans tonight. You got the spurs. You got a reeling Grizzlies team. These are theoretically all very winnable games. The Warriors before they get into a tougher stretch of Lakers, Nuggets, Rockets, Sons who have life again and Clippers and those type of teams. Yeah. And like the Sons, Clippers games are going to be the tougher ones because just having root,

I mean, we're familiar with rooting for playing teams, Sam. We've done it a little bit over the course of the last few years. Nobody knows the playing better than you and me. We know that like those games against the higher leverage teams, who the hell knows who's going to play in those games or the level of intensity. And like it could end up being that those sons, clippers, the other play-in type of teams are the ones that end up giving the tougher fights. But the point is, the bottom line is we're not going to get to see this team play

a good amount of, you know, high-leverage basketball before they're actually in the high-leverage basketball. And so there's a certain amount of this that is theoretical, just with what this team can or cannot do. So given that, we're going to take that and set it to the side, that we all agree that a certain amount of this is conjecture. And I mean, here's the thing, it's conjecture for every team in the league, but just a little bit more so for the Warriors because of the stuff that's gone down with the schedule and with staff's injuries. So with the amount of information that you have, how are you feeling right now in terms of your level of optimism for this team in a potential playoff? run. Fairly optimistic somewhere. I feel like they have a puncher's chance to get out of the West. I did not feel like they had a realistic chance to do anything the last two years. So they, you know, are they the odds on favorite? No. Do I think the Vegas odds, which has them somewhere

like third or fourth most likely come out of the West is accurate? Yeah, I think they really could. I actually think the 20 or so games they've played with Jimmy are indicative of the type of team they are they have the best defense in that span. I'm not going to say they have the best defense in the league, but I do think they have a top five defense with Jimmy Butler. And I think that will translate in the playoffs. And they've been the ninth best offense. I would actually say that's probably even a little on the high side.

I think they're somewhere around the 10th to 12th best offense in the league. And so that's the kind of team you're talking about here. I think they can defend. They can keep themselves in most every matchup in the playoffs. And it really comes down to do they get. get enough shot making around Steph Curry. They've been, they get a bunch of open threes for Moses Moody, for Brandon Pajamsky, for Gary Payton the second, who looks reborn, by the way, just overall as a

player. He looks like he did during the title run, both defensively and offensively. For Cuminga, you know, he's going to get, if he, if, if the shot comes around in the next month, like, they will give him wide open shots because of the way that they guard the warriors. And so, yeah, my question is, do they have enough shot making? and then if the shot making does not come around the size question, because they're going to play small.

They play well small, but like Moses Moody at Powerford is very small. You know what I'm saying? Like they're playing Jimmy and Draymond and Moses Moody and Brandon Pajamsky and Steph Curry. That's their best lineup right now. That's significantly smaller than their famous death lineups. Their death lineup was small,

because Draymond's too small to play center. But if you just accept that he's an anomaly of a human, they actually were not small. They had six, seven guys with seven plus foot wingspans all across the perimeter. In some ways, it's like the makeup that the Lakers have where you're like, okay, there's no real center here, but I would not call them a small team. They're large across the perimeter. It's just a question if they can piecemeal the center position.

And so, you know, like Denver, Denver is going to be a rough matchup for them because Aaron Gordon's huge for a wing, and he kind of takes away that wing advantage that they have, and then Yokic is Yokic, right? Like, those are my question marks for them. But, like, on the flip side, as great as OKC is, now the size isn't really as big of an issue. OKC plays the same size guys.

Obviously, they're excellent. The record says it. So, I don't know, I think they have a realistic chance. They do have exploitable flaws, but I think that's true of every team in the West. It's a very good Western conference. I'm not sure there's a great team in this conference. Yeah, or they're all great teams.

That's the like relative. Like that's the other thing too is like, you know, I was looking at it too. Like, like Oklahoma City might get Minnesota in the first round. What a shit end of the stick for going 60 and 12 to start to season. I was like such a huge pain of the ass. Yeah, I love the part, the point you made about the size. Because like, like just basically, Andre Aguadala is a bigger and more imposing athlete than either of Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody. Just to give you an idea of like the difference in the physical profile of those teams.

Like, add Kevin Durant. the picture. It's an entirely different stratosphere of athletes. Play is the same size as Jimmy Butler. Clay played the two. Jimmy's kind of the four. You know, like, that's what you need to know right there. They were, they were big across the perimeter. And then Draymond's just kind of, you know, it's once in a generation six, six, you could play a center. Dude, I, it, the, this ultimately is why I view them as a legitimate puncher's chance threat. First of all, I, like, phase one, don't overthink it. It's Jimmy. it's Steph, it's Draymond. Put them in a playoff series. You mentioned the processing speed,

even just the experience, the confidence, the level of comfortability they're going to experience in those environments. You mentioned the defense. To me, like, to me, the Lakers, the Lakers were the number one defense in the league for a few months, and they are a good defense. But with Luka, I look at them at their best as somewhere in that six to 10 range as a defense. Like, I don't actually think they have the level of imposition athletically. that they can cause problems for teams at the level of a top five defense. I think Golden State does have that level of defense. That level of defense, to your point, will keep you in every game.

And if you're in every game, there's a certain amount of like, if this guy makes a couple shots, we end up winning it. You know, and as long as they generate enough quality ones, they've got a good chance. I'm glad you brought up the size. Ironically, I'm actually more worried. Like, I think Denver and the Lakers present different issues for Golden State with size. The Lakers, with their just massive.

massive forwards that are just going to be picking on smalls all over the place in Denver with the Yokic problem. But I could also flip that around and I can go, one of the most impressive teams against OKC and Boston this year has been Golden State. They've looked good at times in those matchups and have caused them real problems before Jimmy Butler came to town. And so when I look at it, like, a big part of their punchers chance is like to me they match up well with the top teams in the league. and there's a certain amount of this like with matchups they might not have to face both Denver and L.A. They might not have to face either of them if things go a certain way. You don't know how this could end up shaking out. Like they could end up catching a huge thing.

A dream scenario for the Warriors would be Lakers and Denver getting stuck together round one just so it's right off the bat. One of them are eliminated. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. And that's the wild card with the Western Conference that's always so difficult to factor in. But like you mentioned like to me all the teams have flaws. I think we can all agree that the Thunder and the are a level above, to a certain extent. I think it's a smaller level above than some other people think. Like I've, I talked to people who think, and I'm sure you do too, that think Oklahoma City is just a runaway Western Conference favorite.

I don't see it that way. I view them as a slight Western Conference favorite. I think that when you've got a rotation full of dudes who are 26 and younger, they're going to win a shit ton of games, especially when they're talented because they're just so young and so, you know, indomitable as athletes in the regular season. They don't come out looking tired on the third game in four nights. the way the Warriors are Lakers might. Exactly. And by the way, even the Celtics have a certain

amount of like age and fatigue in their in their rotation that I think that that I think factors in. But ultimately all of these teams have exploitable flaws. All of them to me are beatable. And so like, that's why I don't think it makes a ton of sense to hyper focus on any team's flaw, whether it's the Lakers in their center, or if it's Denver in their lack of defense or it's Golden State and their lack of shot making. It just, I think, I think all of these teams have a certain amount of flaw. So, okay, we have a couple more minutes. Really quickly, what does this summer look like? Let's just say, because I think there's a version of this where they get their ass kicked in the first round, where it could be a little bit more complicated.

But let's say that they make a run to at least the second or third round and they put up a really good fight and they end up losing. What does this summer look like for the Warriors in your opinion? I mean, the first decision is Jonathan Cumminga and then it's Domino's from there. I think if you are committed to Steph, Jimmy, and Dremont, you have to use the summer to optimize the roster around their strengths and weaknesses. They kind of put this together on the fly. We've learned some things this season.

Like, we've learned like this is exactly what they needed to turn Moses Moody into a real rotation player. You know, Brandon Pajemski looks really good next to him. He's probably back next year. Cuminga, I could see them coming away from the playoffs being like he started figuring it out towards the end of it, and we really need his legs because Jimmy's going to miss 20 games, Steph's going to miss 20 games. And it's just going to be nice to have someone who can carry the load in November, December, or those times. I could also see

them being like, you know what? It's not happening. Let's see what sign and trade possibilities are out there. So I think it's all on the table right now. I think if you were to talk to them off the record, they would probably say the same thing. Their best case scenarios, Kumiga figures it out because it's one less complication. It's always easier to just keep someone in-house than have to go out there and try to make a deal. So I think that's, I think that's the first thing we have to figure out. From there, it's scaling the market for players who are probably under 30 because you have an older core, looking for more shot making, looking for more front court shot making, specifically, Quentin Post has been an amazing find for them. I don't

know how much he's going to play in the playoffs just because young big who doesn't really profiles a defender anyway. Hard to play those guys in the playoff. Finding another piece like that, I think that's where they go. There is also the insane scenario where a supermax player becomes available when they trade Jimmy because now they have the contract to match it. I do not think that'll happen, but I do think they would do it if they could get Janus. Yeah.

Yonis is the wild card that I could see him. coming available this year. I'm just not betting on anything like that happening because it's so unlikely. But hey, I didn't have Luca Donchich getting moved at the dead of night on February 1st happening either. So I cannot rule anything out anymore. Yeah, one of the rare examples in NBA, in anything where the conspiracy theories make more sense than the reality of what happened.

Exactly. This is my last question for you. Mid-level exception this summer under the circumstances that we laid out. would you rather have a big that let's call it a versatile big that can that does something really well whether it's shoot the ball or protect the rim super well something like that

let's just say like let's just take like a Miles Turner for example let's say like a guy like Miles Turner was available for the MLA which by the way he might not be he probably won't be or a shot creating like a perimeter ball handler type what do you think is more important uh give me a guy with positional size who can drain threes.

Because I do agree with you. The Warriors have for years kind of like turn their nose up at like the sixth man bucket getter type. And I think on the net aggregate, they're right. Those guys tend to be overvalued and overpaid. But games where Steph doesn't play, you're like,

man, it'd be really nice to have a, it'd be really nice to have like a, you know, like a Lou Williams or someone like that, that type of player, right? I do think it's more realistic for them. to find like a shake Milton or someone like that on a veteran minimum than an MLE,

whereas MLE, I'm shooting for someone who's in my eight-man playoff rotation. That's a good point. Not someone who's spelling Steph's leg, so he plays 65 games a year. In a perfect world, you get both. But yeah. I think the way you laid it out is perfect. I think ultimately, if you're spending, you know, $12 million on a player, it needs to be someone that's in your playoff rotation.

Like, Milton was a perfect. Go ahead. a perfect example. I was going to say like De Anthony Melton was a perfect example of that because you know, great defender and he can hit open shots, but you know, it didn't happen. Dude, do you think it would be interesting to see if he came back at some point? Because I think he was a really good fit during the short bit that we got to see him. Sam, this is all we have time for today. I sincerely appreciate you joining us. It's been awesome to hear your close perspective on the team. Will you just shout out light years, tell everybody where they can find your stuff?

Yeah, pretty simple. Search Lightears, any place you get a podcast, Apple, Spotify, YouTube, whatever it is. We are live after basically every game, additional content outside of those postgame shows. Just check us out there and subscribe. It was good to see you, man. I'm looking forward to next time. Thank you all for supporting us and for supporting the show. I hope all of you guys have an incredible weekend and we will see you on the month. What's up, guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting hoops tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take us. second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys,

I appreciate it. But if you could take a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to hey, on us on us on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

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