The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Steph Curry & Warriors NBA Finals favorites? Are LeBron James & Lakers a threat?

Episode Date: November 29, 2022

Jason Timpf discusses what has led to Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and the Golden State Warriors getting their season back on track and whether he views them as the favorites to win the NBA Finals. He later breaks down Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets success early in this NBA season, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers opportunity to make a run, and how Kemba Walker can help Luka Doncic and the struggling Dallas Mavericks. #volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

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gambler.net in West Virginia. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by FanDuel here at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody. We are live on AMP. I hope all of you guys enjoy your holiday weekend that you got some time to relax and enjoy some good food and some time with friends and family. I was joking with my wife this morning. I love the holidays, mainly because I value quality time with people more than just about

anything else in my life. And so when you get to slow down and spend some time with friends and family, especially friends and family that are out of town, that come back to town for the holidays. That's just time that I value a great deal. But it's funny how as you get older, it gets to be so much work because when you're younger, it's just like you and your immediate family. But then, like, you get into a relationship and now it's your family and her family. And then the two of you become part of a group of friends. And now you have friends giving and friends Christmas and all these kinds of things. And then her parents are also separated. So, like, we have

events with her mom's side of the family and events with her dad's side of the family. We even, her family has really close siblings. So we'll spend like a sibling's Christmas and a sibling's Thanksgiving. And next thing you know, you've got like a half dozen events surrounding each of these holidays. And here I am on Monday morning after five consecutive days off and I'm strangely exhausted. You know how it goes.

You're always having to bring food like you're prepping dishes. If you're hosting, you're prepping multiple dishes. There's cleanup. You're cleaning up when you go to events. cleaning up when you're hosting events. It's just a lot of work. Again, totally worth it. And I enjoy it a great deal. But man, I am strangely exhausted for a Monday morning. I am excited to be back to talking about basketball, though, something we haven't done since last week on Tuesday. Here's the schedule for today and for the rest of the week. So today we're going to hit on four teams.

Our two biggest fan bases for the show, which is Lakers and Warriors, who are both on winning streaks. So we're going to dive into them a little bit. And then we're going to hit two additional Western Conference teams that we haven't talked about. a little while. The Denver Nuggets and the Dallas Mavericks who have lost four games in a row and earn a little bit of a tailspin. So we're going to be focusing on those four teams today. And then tomorrow we're going live on YouTube after the final buzzer of the Warriors and the Mavericks. Wednesday double live will be live after Heat Celtics on AMP for the early slate. And then we'll be live. I think the Lakers play, I think it's the Blazers. The Lakers play the Blazers on Wednesday night. We'll be live on YouTube after that game.

Then Thursday, live on AMP at 6 p.m. Eastern, we'll have our biweekly player rankings. We didn't do one last week because of the holiday, but we're technically three weeks removed from our last player rankings list, so we'll be doing that. And then on Saturday morning, we'll have a YouTube video. So Friday's off. Saturday morning we'll have a YouTube video that's breaking down Friday night's slate, which is absolutely insane. Tons of good games to talk about on Friday night that we will get to on Saturday. And you guys know the drill before we get started. if you guys are watching this on YouTube or on the podcast feed, don't forget that AMP is the very first place that you guys can get these breakdowns. Also, I'm going to be referencing two videos today, some footage that I put together and put on my Twitter feed. So you're going to want to follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT so you guys can see those videos that we reference. Again, we have some limitations on the footage that we can use on YouTube. So I've got to send you guys to Twitter for that. But on that note, let's talk some basketball. So let's start with the Warriors. They're back on track.

Since the five-game losing streak, they are eight and three in their last 11 games. Over that span, they're sixth in offense, eighth in defense, and fourth in net rating. Steph Curry looks like a bona fide MVP candidate averaging 32, 7, and 7 over this span on 55% shooting, 47% from 3 and 87% from the line. Andrew Wiggins is playing like an All-Star 21 points and five rebounds on 53% from the floor at 48%. from three. Clay Thompson, whatever slump you were worried about to start the year, that's over. This 11-game stretch, he's averaging 20 on 46% from 3 on 10 3-point attempts. Clay is fine. And then Dremont Green over this span has been amazing on the defensive end, but also on the

offensive end creating stuff in their offense. We're going to get to it because I'm in a reference a video that I put together of their offense in the first quarter against Minnesota. And Dremont was incredible in that sequence. During this 11-game span, he's averaging 9 a assists to just two turnovers, and Jordan Poole has been fine as well. He's averaging 16 points per game on 43% from the field. The offense was clicking at an insanely high level against Minnesota. In that first quarter, they had a 168 offensive rating. Now, with Minnesota's defense in particular, this is a bad matchup. You know, one of the things I talked about a lot when they made the Gobert trade is that when they could functionally run drop coverage, they'll be tough to beat.

So there will be matchups where they have success. when they can really pack the paint. But teams that have good pull-up shooting and teams that are really good at spacing you out and driving and kicking are going to give the Timberwolves problems all season long. Why? Because Rudy Gobert's defensive value is somewhat limited

if he's taken away from the basket because he can't cover for his teammates when he's away from the rim. And then on the perimeter, they lost a good chunk of perimeter defense so they don't quite have the mobility to hang with really good driving kick teams. Now, the Warriors aren't really a driving kick team,

but they functionally do a lot of six. similar things in the sense that they are spacing you five out with most of their sets. And the paint is usually unoccupied. You're forcing these guys to guard in space. And, you know, Goberra actually wasn't that bad against the warriors yesterday, but man, Carl Towns was absolutely in the blender in that first quarter. And that was a big part of how Golden State had so much success in that first quarter. And, you know, what was interesting, too, is it wasn't, it wasn't like they were spamming an action. There was so much variety to the way the Warriors were cutting Minnesota to pieces with all of their sets.

So there was a, you know, you had your typical warrior split cut stuff where, you know, post entry to Draymond on the left post. And then Clay Thompson goes to screen for Steph, but instead Steph just cuts back door. And he gets a wide open floater and makes it. They ran a version of Spain pick and roll where they had Clay Thompson and Draymond set two high screens at the three point line. And as Steph was coming over the top, Clay relocated to the left side wing as Draymond was rolling. They kicked it to Clay. Clay pump-faked shooter, defender pursued pass to me and he drove to the basket and got a wide open look at a floater. There was your classic high pick and roll with Stefan Draymond where he hits Draymond on the short roll, quick drop-off pass to Jamichael Green for a reverse layup. Then there was a play where Draymond Green did a fake dribble handoff with Steph, got to the rim, bounced pass to Jamichael Green, dunk.

There was the, you know, even later in the quarters, Minnesota started to adjust and send a defender over during that, during those Draymond Green short roles. They just started kicking to shooters. There was a really nice play where Jordan Poole came over the screen and on the roll, Minnesota helped out of the corner. He just threw a rifle baseball pass that hit Dante DiVincenzo right in the shooting pocket in the right corner and he made a three. Dremon was doing stuff in transition where he just pushed the ball up the floor and then like Clay Thompson, would just cut back door and he'd hit him for a layup. It was vintage Warriors basketball. It was an offensive clinic and everything that we've grown accustomed to seeing from them

over the course of the last couple of years. Now, the bench is still an issue. You know, they're getting outscored by 18.4 points per 100 possessions the season when Steph is off the floor. But when they're starting lineup is that good? When they're absolutely obliterating teams with that lineup, they build themselves enough margin for error that. they can live through those bench issues. Like we saw what happened last night, they went to the bench, you know,

Minnesota got it back to 14, you know, got it, you know, they've made it look a little bit more competitive, but there was such a big gap there that it changes the tenor and tone of the game. Now it feels like a blowout. And as a result, you know, Minnesota doesn't defend quite as hard. They jack up some bad shots and things just kind of stay at arms distance. That was an arms distance game where Golden State was never truly threatened. And that's what happens when you have the best starting lineup in basketball.

And forget about starting lineup. That lineup is the best lineup in basketball without any competition. Their defense is getting better. I talked about how the starting lineup wasn't defending well enough during that losing streak. Well, their defensive rating is 106.6.6 with Curry, Clay, Drayman, Wiggins, and Looney on the floor over this 11-game stretch. And they're outscoring teams. This is insane.

that lineup, Curry, Clay, Draymond, Wiggins, and Looney is outscoring teams during this 8-3 stretch by 31 points per 100 possessions. They're building leads so big that their bench issues are just irrelevant. This is how crazy this is. There are 22 five-man lineups in the NBA this year that have played at least 100 minutes, and the warrior starters are best by a mile. They have a plus 28 net rating for the season. there's only one other one of those lineups, of those 22 lineups, only one of them has a net rating over 20.

That's not the Warriors, and that's the Bucks. Their starters are plus 23. So they're five points better than the next best lineup, and then there's nobody else that's nearly as dominant as those two lineups. Don't look now, but the Warriors are over 500, and they're only three games back from first place in the West. This is what happens when the West is as wide open as it is. And, you know, what I kept talking about is, like, there are still conversations to have about young players and who you want to keep, who you want to trade, whether or not they need to target a specific type of player to bolster their bench. You know, different lineup configurations, who you play with who. You know, should James Wiseman have to play in the G League as a number two overall pick, or is that kind of unfair to him? There's a lot of, like, ancillary conversations to have about the Warriors, but their actual struggles, the struggles, the struggles, the struggles, that had them three and seven at one point this season,

those were solvable just by the starters playing better. They played great to start the season. They had a bad stretch and they went 0 and 5, and they played great again, and all of a sudden they started winning again. That group is so dominant that they can solve a lot of their problems and buy the Warriors time to figure out what they want to do with their bench. That lineup is why I have the Warriors as my championship favorite.

that lineup is why I never got scared for the Warriors as they were struggling, and that lineup is going to be what carries them with their best chance of repeating this year. Also, Warriors fans, I forgot to mention this earlier, that whole first quarter offensive stretch that I was talking about, I broke down a bunch of plays from that sequence on my Twitter feed with actual footage. You can find that on my Twitter feed at underscore Jason LT. Don't forget to go check that out. All right, let's talk about the Nuggets.

So we haven't talked about them in a while. On the surface, things look somewhat underwhelming, right? Like they're 12 and 7. They're only 6 and 4 in their last 10. They're back at 24th on defense, which is nowhere near good enough for a team that legitimately wants to contend. So you can be pessimistic about them, and that's a big part of why the Nuggets haven't really gotten a lot of talk this year. But guess what 12 and 7 works as in today's NBA? 12 and 7 is the fifth best record in basketball.

That's how wide open the league is. When you get past the Celtics and Bucks, there's such a big drop-off to everybody else, and everyone else is just kind of clustered up in there that, you know, I mean, even the Lakers are three games back from sixth in the west or whatever it is. That was what it was as of yesterday. I'm not sure after last night's games, but they were kind of like right back up in the mix of things. And here you go, the Denver Nuggets, you're working Michael Porter Jr. back from injury.

You're working Jamal Murray back from injury. Nicola Yokic is stepping back into a smaller role. All this stuff is happening, and you're still the fifth best record in the league. That's how, that's the glass half full way of looking at it. And even gets better because they're 11 and 5 when Yokic plays. They dropped a couple of games recently when Yokich was out of the lineup with COVID. And, you know, we were just talking about those dominant lineups, right? So I've got the Warriors that are plus 28 per 100 possessions.

I've got the buck starters that are plus 23.100 possessions. Well, guess who the third best lineup in basketball is? It's Nigla Yokits, Jamal Murray, KCP, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon. They're plus 17.4 net in 172 minutes this year, which is the third best in the league among lineups that have played at least 100 minutes together. They're also dominating in crunch time. There's six and two in games where the score has been within five points with less than five minutes remaining. And in those crunch time situations, they have a plus 21 net rating, which is third best in the league,

and the best defense in the league in clutch situations, which is encouraging. Because what has been my theory all along? You know, the nuggets are, they're not defending as well as they can. Are they a top five defense? No, but they should be closer to 15. They're definitely capable of defending better than they have. They've added enough a talent on the wing, you know, over the course of the last couple years with Aaron Gordon.

I really like the Bruce Brown signing, Contavius Caldwell Pope, I think, is a better defender than Will Barton. They have better defensive players. They just have to go out and show that. And what they're showing is in crunch time when they really lock in, they're getting a lot of stops. but I wanted to take some time to go one by one through the Denver Nuggets line up to talk about where they're succeeding this year. So for Yokic, his numbers are down across the board. He's only averaging 22 points per game and 10 rebounds this year,

which is well below where he was last year. That also is going along with nine assists, but that's to be expected with the supporting cash changing. Last year, you know, with the type of talent he was playing with, he had to be a lot more aggressive in post-ups and isolations. And that's just not the case this year. It's a lot more in the flow of the offense. But he's still excelling in all of the usual ways. In post-ups, 1.1 points per possession counting passes 69th percentile, which is well above average, right? The inverted pick and roll, which I've always talked about, where basically Yokic runs a screen and roll with a guard as the screener, as opposed to the reverse of that. I put a whole video of that together that you can find on my Twitter feed. So I kind of demonstrate the inverted Nicola Yokicch pick and roll.

It's usually Bruce Brown setting the screen because he has so much experience as a role man from his time in Brooklyn, but they also do it a little bit with KCP. They do it quite a bit with KCP, but they do it a little bit with Jamal Murray and a lot with Aaron Gordon as well. They always slip the screen. They're not really there to linger and make a physical play on the screen defender. They're just there to put a presence so the defender gets out of position and then they're slipping to the basket every single time. From there, Yokic literally will keep the dribble alive and just will, wait for the defense to commit to one of the players, and there usually is a wide open player

there, because with Yokic, the screen defender is hedging on him usually, and then the guy who's guarding him is following him in that screen. Now it's a four on three on the backline. Most of the time, that guy who's slipping to the basket ends up being wide open, and you're seeing a ton of easy layups for Bruce Brown and KCP at the basket because of what they're getting in that role situation, but if the screen defender stays with the slipping screener, Yokic will just continue to go downhill because now he has a driving lane because his defender got caught on the fake screen, and now he's going downhill and no one can stop him because of how damn big he is. Inverted Yokic pick and roll this year with him as the ball handler, including passes,

is scoring 1.07 points per possession, which is in the 75th percentile in the league. Again, you're going to want to check that video out on Twitter, and then the Warriors' offense stuff that I was talking about. He still can't make a jump shot to save his life, really, but he's cut way back on attempts. Kind of like what Anthony Davis did. He's attempting half as many threes as he did last year, but he's shooting just 28% on them. Jamal Murray, last 10 games, 18.4 points per game and 6 assists, and he scored 20 plus five times. Each day, he just looks a little bit more like himself.

In this 10 game span, he's also shooting 43% on 10 pull-up jumpers per game. If you guys remember, beginning of the season, he was at around 40%. this last stretch, he's around 43%. Like I've been saying, I want to see him up around 45, 46%. That's when you'll know he's really back to where he is, but he's clearly trending in that direction. And that's good to see after his injury to see him kind of getting back to what he was. Michael Porter, Jr., 101 points in 77 spot-up possessions, which ranks in the 88th percentile in the league. Aaron Gordon is the workhorse of this lineup.

He's a monster on the offensive glass. He's averaging a career high two-and-half offensive rebounds per game. He is excellent running the floor in transition. He's been outstanding for them in the dunker spot in particular. So he's not having a good perimeter shooting season. And so they're sticking him in the dunker spot a lot, especially since Yokic is typically operating out of the top of the key. So it's not really causing spacing issues for them.

And then he just does really, it does a really nice job of relocating. Now, the way that dunker spot relocation works is when the ball is on your side of the floor, you have to go to the opposite block. You always want to be sitting outside. the block on the side opposite of the ball handler. It just makes it so the defender has to leave you further to be in help, which creates an opening for you. Then as the ball crosses over the midline of the floor, you want to relocate to the other

block. Or if someone drives baseline, you want to relocate to like the charge circle, so kind of in front of the rim. So there's just some basic concepts of how to relocate when you're in that dunker spot. Aaron Gordon's got such a natural feel with Yokic already. He just knows how to find those openings, and Yokic will just hit him with these baseball passes, and then he's one of the best straight-vert jumpers

that we have in the league. So he can just elevate from wherever he catches and just dunk the basketball. And he's been extremely effective as a cutter out of the dunker spot as a result. And then KCP was the last guy I wanted to talk about. He's one of my favorite players in the league for my time covering him with the Lakers. He's just a professional two-guard. He's a great defensive player, deadly three-point shooter.

He's having an outstanding three-point shooting season. Great attacking close-outs, and he's great in transition, whether that's running to the corner for threes or running to the front of the rim for layups and dunks. He scored 88 points on 63 spot-up possessions this year, which is in the 92nd percentile. And they haven't done it much, but he's been really good as a movement shooter this year. They've run nine plays for him running off of screens for shots,

and he's knocked down seven of them. He has a couple of – for Denver in particular, they have a couple of games coming up against Houston, but then their December schedule gets a lot tougher. And Houston in particular just won two games in a row against the Thunder, which is not an easy win and against the Hawks, who are a legit Eastern Conference playoff team. So Houston's playing some decent basketball right now.

So a couple of tougher games, like what seem to be easy games, but you don't want to sleepwalk against Houston. It's just such a good physical matchup for Yokic that I expect them to win both those games. And then December gets a lot tougher. So we're going to learn a lot about Denver in the, month of December. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told,

and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, Follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

Then you're finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, moving on to the Lakers.

So, here's the way I want to do this for the Lakers. There's a optimistic glass-half-full way of looking at things. Then there's the pessimistic glass-half-empty way of looking at things. And then there's the reality, which is somewhere in the middle. And I'm going to go through each of those. So here's the glass-half-full way of looking at things. The Lakers are over 500 since their 0-and-5 start. They are 5-1 in their last six games.

They are 7 and 6 in their last 13 games. In that 13-game stretch, they are 12th in offense, 19th in defense, 17th in net rating. Anthony Davis's last five games, 33 and 18 on 64% shooting, three blocks and two steals. That's straight up MVP-level production. He's also 19 for 42. outside of the restricted area, which is great for two reasons. One that's way more efficient than he had been in the last couple of years. And then it's low volume.

You want Anthony Davis, unless he's straight up Kevin Durant like he was in the bubble, you don't want him high volume outside the paint. You want him low volume. So for more than half of his shots to be in the restricted area is a good thing. And 48 of his 90 shots in this five-game stretch have been in the restricted area. LeBron's last four games. Remember what I said, starting with the Cleveland game? because he was sick before that, and then he had the foot issue before that.

I said the Cleveland game looked like he was more physically healthy. And since that stretch, he's played four games. Obviously he got hurt somewhere in the middle. But in LeBron's last four games, starting with that Cleveland game, he's averaging 29 points, nine rebounds and four assists, on 53% from the field, 45% from 3 and 76% from the line. This is kind of one of the silver linings that come from injuries, and I tweeted this out when he first came back in that first game against the Spurs.

Did I expect him to look in 100% good shape? No, of course not. That takes time. Did I expect him to look 100% in rhythm when it comes to his handle and just his overall feel for the game? No, of course not. That's going to take time. But LeBron was in a bad shooting slump, one of the worst ones of this recent phase of his career. And one of the things that's nice about an injury like that is you don't want to sit on your butt.

You want to stay active, so you're going to do things with like cardio to try to keep your blood flowing, and you're going to do some lifting. But you're not going to play basketball, right, while you're resting that. But you will shoot a ton of shots. Because even with a groin injury, you can shoot standstill jump shots all day long. And I was expecting that LeBron would use that downtime

to really hone in the details of his jump shot and get out of that slump. And that appears to be what happened. 45% from three made seven of them, which is one shy of his career high in last night's game. or yeah it was yesterday in the afternoon. So he's also having a sneaky great ISO season. He scored 76 points on 67 ISOs this year, which is in the 84th percentile.

He did a really nice job against the spurs with like a basic combination in ISO of a jab-step pull-up and a jab-and-go. Now, it's funny because you think ISO and basketball, you think a lot of like intense mixing up off the dribble and dribble combinations to get to stepbacks or turnarounds or, you know, driving all the way to the rim and things along those lines. You think of a ton of variety. But you know, what's funny is LeBron, he has that stuff for the record, and you see that when he's really in his groove. Like if if LeBron really gets back into form, you'll see really diverse shot making from him over the course of the season. But he's been effective in ISO this year with two moves, a jab step jumper and a jab step to the rim driving just a rip through to the basket. And it's funny because that's been like the story of LeBron's career, simplicity and

effectiveness over some of the aesthetic stuff, although he is a lot more, you know, aesthetically polished than a lot of his detractors are willing to admit. But, you know, the baseline of it is it's move-counter move. You know, I talk about this with my high school kids that I train all the time. You know, as long as every move is built on an equally effective counter move, then just those two things are enough to build an offensive foundation. So for instance, I'm in a triple threat. You're guarding me. If I am a legitimate threat to rip through to the right and go to the rim, or rip through to the left and go to the rim, and I'm also a legitimate threat to just jab and rise up and knock down a jump shot, I've put you in no man's land. Now you have to make a decision.

If you play off of me to contain the drive, I'm going to knock down this jab step jump shot. if you press up on me to take away the jab step jump shot, I'm 260 pounds and I'm 6 foot 9, and if I rip through, I'm getting past you. And it's just funny to see that kind of effectiveness because he's had a down season by almost every measure, right? And yes, he's got his jumper going recently, but he's run 67 ISOs this year,

and he's been one of the best ISO players in the league, just based on two moves that have been effective for him. And the fact that each move is the opposite of the other forcing defenders to have to make a decision one way or another. Lonnie Walker has also been a great third option during this stretch in this 13-game stretch. He's averaging 19 points on 64% true shooting.

How insane is that? That's like legit third-star type of production. But here's the glass half-empty way of looking at things. The Lakers are 5-0 against teams that are below 500, but they're 2-11 against teams that are 500 or better. AD has been beating up on pretty weak front lines. That's just a fact. He's been unbelievable, but he's beating.

up on pretty weak front lines. Three of their seven wins this season are against the Spurs, who are the worst team in the NBA, in my opinion. Now, again, I'm being intentionally pessimistic there. But those are the two radical sides of it. So where's reality? The reality is the Lakers have two of the top ten players in the league. And to start the season,

they both played well below their personal standards. Anthony Davis was playing more like a 15th best player in the league. LeBron James was playing more like a 15th best player in the league. In their defense, AD was dealing with back spasms and LeBron was dealing with footstuff and he got sick. But the fact remains, they didn't play well to start the season. They were also playing an incredibly tough schedule to start the season. The toughest schedule in the league to start the season.

You're not going to beat the best teams in the league, the good teams, unless LeBron and Anthony Davis both play to the top of their ability. because of the other limitations on the roster. So that was why they were struggling so much to start the year. LeBron and AD weren't good enough. Dominant schedule. Yeah, they got a couple of wins. Yeah, they beat the Nets.

Yeah, they beat the Pelicans. Yeah, they beat the Nuggets. There's some quality wins in there. But for the most part, they struggled against that part of their schedule because LeBron and AD weren't good enough. Now the schedule is lightened up. LeBron and AD have it going. They both are playing really good basketball here in this last couple of weeks,

and they've racked up some work. wins. But, you know, and then also the role players are shooting better, although they're still not shooting well. In this 13-game stretch, the Lakers are 28th and three-pointers made per 100 possessions. But the schedule's about to get way tougher again, really starting right away. Even these next two games to end the month in November are against the Pacers and Blazers who are both above 500, and then they have the toughest schedule in the league in December. In December, the Lakers play the bucks, the Celtics, the Sixers, the Rafters, the Cavs, the Nuggets, the Suns, the Kings, the Mavs, the Heat, and the Hawks.

So, like, the reality is, is even if LeBron and AD maintain this level of play, they'll hang in some of, they'll hang in all these games if they play like that, but their best case scenarios to maybe win half of them, because of the talent limitations that they have. That's, you know, when you are 5-0 against teams that are below 500, and you are 2-11 against teams that are above 500 or at 500, what that tells me is you have a talent, issue because when you're 5-0 against teams that are below 500, that means you're taking care of

business. That means you are well-coached, you bring effort every night, and you're making sure you don't lose games you're supposed to win, right? But then they're bringing that same level of effort, although there was a couple of weeks there where they let the rope slip, particularly on defense. But for the most part in those other 13 games, they're bringing consistent effort. They just don't have the horses to win those games, especially when LeBron and AD weren't playing as well as they were. But coming into this month of December, they'll be lucky to win half the games, even if LeBron, James, and Anthony Davis play really well

because of the types of opponents that you're playing. Bucks and Celtics, LeBron and AD could combine for 70 in both of those games, and they probably will lose both. So there you go, 0 and 2. Sixers, that's a tough one. Cavs, they're tough to beat right now. Nuggets, that's tough. The Sons.

You know, these are all games that the Lakers are going to have a hard time winning, even if LeBron James and Anthony Davis play well. well. So it's clearly a talent issue. Now, what's interesting there is you can kind of see the path that I'm starting to draw. Russ has not been great as of late, and he has not been a huge factor in their recent success. So the Lakers have won five of their last six, right? In that span, Russell Westbrook is averaging 12 points per game on 33% shooting, 20% from 3 and 58% from the free throw line. He is averaging nine assists per game, although with four turnovers, but the Lakers have lost his minutes in four of the six games, including games against really weak competition.

So all signs continue to point towards Russell Westbrook's salary being the best vehicle with which to improve the roster. So when I look at that and I see talent issue, schedule getting tougher, LeBron and AD looking great, Lakers won five out of six, Russ isn't really a part of that success. All signs scream towards making the trade. But all of the intel that we've heard is pointing at the Lakers waiting until December 15th to really make that decision. That date is the date that when players who signed deals during this last off season become trade eligible, so theoretically they'll have some more options, but I haven't really seen anything get thrown out that's particularly interesting to me.

Dave McMananman, excuse me, from ESPN reported that the Lakers Brass doesn't really see Buddy Heald and Miles Turner as players that will make their closing lineups. so they don't see the Indiana deal as very likely. I tried really hard this morning to kind of see that point of view. I could potentially see that being true with Heald, right? Like if you make that deal, you know, Turner, A.D. LeBron, maybe you go with more versatile defensive players like Austin Reeves and Lonnie Walker instead of Buddy Heald. Like I could see it potentially.

But Miles Turner would unquestionably be their third best player right now. And there's no way he wouldn't close, especially considering the way he's shooting the basketball and how good he is defensively. He's shooting a career high 43% on four three-point attempts per game. And then he yields shooting at the very least would give you an option to throw out in those situations. He's shooting in the high 30s on over 10 attempts per game from three right now. He's been one of the best spot-up players in the league on a per possession basis, and it gives you an option when players aren't playing well.

So for instance, yeah, like you have these three guys, Troy Brown Jr., Austin Reeves, in Lonnie Walker that are playing pretty damn good basketball and have been getting a lot of minutes for the Lakers. But they're young. And what happens with young basketball players? Young basketball players are prone to bad nights. Like there are going to be nights where Lonnie Walker just doesn't have it. Jumpers not falling, his head's not focused on the defensive end of the floor,

nothing's going. You're not going to stick him in the closing lineup on that type of night because young players have a hard time shedding their mistakes and staying focused on the next play. That's not a Lonnie Walker thing. That's an all-young players thing. But it'd be nice on a night where maybe Lonnie Walker doesn't have it to be like, you know, Buddy Heald's a better option.

Or on nights where Buddy Heald is defending really well, or the matchups with your opponent dictate that Buddy is playable in Crunch Time, now you could have that as an option, a legitimate shooter on the offensive end and who's not killing you on the defensive end, right? So I'm getting a Miles Turner who would far and away be the third best player on the team and then a legitimate back-court threat that I could play in crunch time depending on the matchup. And, you know, like, look, like, would I prefer a wing?

Yeah. So would every Lakers fan, so would every reasonable basketball mind in the world. If you're looking to bolster your team and you can choose between a center which is somewhat matchup dependent and a guard which is somewhat matchup dependent or a versatile wing, all of us, for all of our teams, are picking a wing. But I haven't seen a single wing thrown out in one of the, these deals, these potential deals, that is nearly as good as Miles Turner, at least not a realistic one. I've heard, you know, OG and Anobie get thrown out. Why would the Raptors

give O'G. and Inobie to the Lakers? What could the Lakers offer that would legitimately entice them to make a move like that? If so, then, yeah, by all means, go get O'G. Ananoby. But I haven't seen a realistic wing-centered trade that has any player that's nearly as good as Miles Turner is right now. And so just by the sheer talent influx, to me that still looks like the best deal. Like I like Boyan McDonovich. It was a name that I talked about a lot this summer, but I liked it as part of a larger jazz package that also would have brought back maybe an extra wing like a Rudy Gay or a great shooter like a Malik Beasley. I don't necessarily like the idea of Boyan Bogdanovich targeted from the pistons right now and using picks for just him, right?

with Miles Turner, you get a legitimate back court threat and a great center that will slot really nicely alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, significantly improve your defense, and increase the talent on the team. But most importantly, waiting until December 15th with the type of schedule they have puts the Lakers at significant risk to lose all of this ground that they just made up in this recent stretch. So I still, I think that the clear answer for the beginning and currently now as well is call up the Pacers, offer them the two picks, get Miles Turner and Buddy Heald. Hell, I'd do it right now because if you did it right now, then the Pacers would be

short-handed tonight and you might be able to get yourself a win there, right? But clearly their intent on waiting, and we'll see. It's very possible that the Lakers are sitting at like 10 and 17 by the time a deal actually gets done, and that's a damn shame, considering how wide open the league is right now and the fact that the Lakers are still right there with the chance to make a run, because of how poorly everyone else has played in the Western Conference. One note on the Pacers, they've been playing really good ball lately, and they deserve a shout out.

We will get to them in tomorrow's show. We're going to do a lot. I'm watching a ton of film on Tyrese Halliburton to prep for this. So we will get to that when we cover the Lakers Pacers game in the second half of tomorrow's show after we break down the Mavericks game. Speaking of the Mavericks, let's get to the Mavericks. So after getting Roundhouse kicked by Milwaukee last night, They've lost four in a row.

They're three and seven in their last ten games. They're 27th in offense during this span. Eighth in defense. Luca is as good as ever. He's averaging 30 points per game, nine rebounds, eight assists, 57% true shooting, which is fine, a little low for him, but not terrible. They've been a positive in this three and seven stretch with him on the floor. For the season, the Mavericks are outscoring teams by four points per 100 possessions

with Luca on the floor, and they're getting outscored by three points per 100 possessions when he's off the floor per cleaning the glass. but we kind of expected this to happen after they let Jalen Brunson go, right? Like this system depends on having a third legitimate ball handler, which brings us to Mr. Kemba Walker, who the Dallas Mavericks signed today. So I wanted to talk a little bit about Kemba and how he fits specifically with the Dallas Mavericks. So health has been a consistent issue for him over the years, but let's proceed as if he's healthy because obviously Dallas would not have signed him otherwise.

when Kemba is healthy, he is a great pull-up shooter who gets to the rim more than most guards in the league. I wanted to look at his 2019 season just to kind of give you an idea of what peak Kemba Walker looks like. So with the Hornets that year, he shot over 40% on 10 pull-up jumpers per game, and he had over 3.2 restricted area makes per game. For reference, that's about what you're getting from Russell Westbrook right now. That's the level of dribble penetration Kemba Walker was getting. during that 2019 campaign, and he's doing it on a higher percentage than Russell Westbrook is doing right now.

And then at his best, he was about a six assists per game guy, which is fine for a score the way he was. During that season, he was in the 94th percentile in pick and rolls, including passes, and the 93rd percentile in isolations, including passes. So he's a guard that can get to the rim, knock down, pull-up jump shots, and can make plays as a scorer and passer in both isolation and pick-and-roll. That is the healthy best version of Kemmel Walker.

So in theory, he's the perfect type of guard to slide into this Dallas Mavericks system. Is he the same player that he was in 2019? Almost certainly not. Probably not that close either. But it's a much easier role than he had in 2019. 2019, he was the top of the scouting report. He won't be the top of the scouting report here. 2019, he was catching the best perimeter defenders every single night.

he's going to get the second defender in the bench unit on most of his rotation minutes this year. So it's just, when you factor in the role as a bench creator going against bench lineups with the ultimate green light that Dallas gives their ball handlers and the Mavericks spacing, which we've talked about a ton on the show in the last couple weeks, it could work. They'll have to hide him defensively, but they already have some experience in that department, especially off the ball. If they can just get him to slide his feet on ball so that the dribble penetration isn't that bad,

there's so many tricks now in the league to hide players off ball that they might be able to make it work. So the bottom line is, if Campbell Walker has anything left in the tank, Dallas is the ideal spot for him to show that because the matchups he'll be attacking are favorable. They'll have a green light so he can shoot through his slump, whatever that is as he gets back into rhythm.

And then the spacing will have to operate with all their pick and pop bigs and the good shooters that they stashed in the corner. And then last but not least, it's a low risk type of move. You're signing him at a veteran minimum contract. I haven't seen the details, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's non-guaranteed. So, and even if it is guaranteed, what are you out? A couple million bucks. So I thought it was a smart move for Dallas just to try something,

especially with how bad they've been offensively in this recent stretch. Dallas's schedule does lighten up a little bit in December. They still have some tough games, but there's a lot of winnable games in there as well, and some good matchups for the MAV specifically. So I think it's a good spot to integrate Canba and make up some ground in the standings. All right, guys. That is all I have for today. You guys know the drill.

Like I said, tomorrow will be going live after Maverick's Warriors. And then I broke down the rest of the schedule earlier this week. Don't forget to go to YouTube or excuse me to my Twitter page to check out those videos that I put together. As always, I sincerely appreciate your support. And I will see you next time. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. On Humor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman

help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

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