The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Hoops Tonight - Top 10 NBA Contenders: LeBron & Lakers TOP 5 with Luka, Celtics or Thunder #1?

Episode Date: February 19, 2025

Jason Timpf breaks down his top 15 contenders for the NBA Finals following All-Star Weekend. Jason discusses which teams slot into each of his five championship tiers including Jayson Tatum's Boston Celtics, Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Oklahoma City Thunder. Where do LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and the Los Angeles Lakers come in after winning 10 of their last 12 games? Are Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks or Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks a bigger threat to Boston in the Eastern Conference? And how dangerous are Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors after acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat? Jason answers all these questions and more! Timeline: 4:00 - Introduction 5:30 - "Championship or Bust" Tier 14:30 - "Appropriate Fear" Tier 29:15 - "High Variance" Tier 34:45 - "Puncher's Chance" Tier 38:15 - "Can't See It Happening" Tier #Volume #Herd Follow Jason Timpf on social: https://twitter.com/_JasonLT https://www.instagram.com/jtimpf15/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkng.c.c-o-slash-B-Ball. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great week, like we always do during the All-Star break. We're going to take some time today to zoom out and take a look at our contender rankings.

We're going to be ranking 15 teams today. You guys know the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about our podcast fee wherever get your podcast under hoops tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating and a review on that front. Don't forget about our brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook

where we're releasing content throughout the year. And then last but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube comments so we can keep getting to them on Fridays throughout the remainder of the season. So again, this is our contender rankings are kind of a living document, right? Like stuff is moving around as we get more information. I just wanted to kind of peg down a list right here at this point in the season. I'm going to break these teams into five tiers. And remember, this is not like our power rankings.

Our power rankings, which we're going to get back to doing starting next Monday. Those are where we're just kind of shouting out the teams that are playing well as of late, right? And more kind of focusing on the regular season. This is strictly who do I think has the best chance to get all the way to the Larry O'Brien trophy? Not to win one series, not even to win two series. strictly how likely I think these teams are to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy. Our first tier is our top tier contenders. These are teams that are so good and that have so much in the way of expectations

that anything involving them losing before even getting to the finals would be considered a complete failure. These are teams that are championship or bust. Starting with number one, the Boston Celtics. been number one all year for me. They are currently at Draft Kings at plus 235 to win the title. They've actually been supplanted as the favorite. On Draft Kings now, the Thunder at plus 225 are the favorites.

I don't like that value for OKC. I think it's far more likely that OKC gets beat in the West than Boston gets beat in the east. And I'd pick Boston over OKC head to head. So like in terms of the betting odds, I don't think that's a good price for OKC. But they are currently the favorite to win the top. title. Boston is the clear number one pick to me because they have the hardest weakness to exploit. They don't actually

have a personnel weakness, really at all. They just have a personality weakness. Their top six in offense, defense, and defensive rebounding. There are top 10 paint defense. Their top five, three point line defense, and cleaning the glass currently has them as the number one

transition defense in the NBA. Their weaknesses, they occasionally play really shitty basketball in the regular season. And that to me has so much more to do with just malaise than anything else. They have a 123 offensive rating against the top 10 teams in point differential, according to cleaning the glass. That ranks second in the NBA.

And they're also seventh in defense in those matchups. In terms of win loss in those matchups, they have a 69 win percentage against teams in the top 10 in point differential. That ranks number one in the NBA, even over the thunder, even over the calves. I even think they've been feeling a little bit of like a reverse version of what the calves got in the early part of the year where like several Celtics are shooting well below their norms from three. And I think that's something that will normalize over the tail end of the season. To me, they're better than the Thunder for a few key reasons. Number one, I think Jason

Tatum's gotten a lot better and is now on the same tier as a guy like Shea Gildes Alexander. So I don't see the Thunder is having some substantial star advantage like I looked at it as a problem for the Celtics in years past. I also, too, think the Celtics are far more experienced down the roster. in the playoff setting than OKC is. Later on, I'm going to talk to you guys about age, and I'm going to list some of the ages of some of the players on both rosters, and you guys will get a better feel for that. But I do think experience is a big advantage for Boston. And then three, I think Boston's offense translates much better to the postseason than Oklahoma City's offense does. And I think the gap between these two teams defensively in the playoff

context is substantially smaller. So I think, again, I think Boston, what we're seeing from them, what we know they can do is more reliable in the playoff context and what we've seen from Oklahoma City. They're versatile too. They can protect the rim. They have great switching looks. They have big lineups. They have small lineups. They have more players that can initiate offense than anyone in the league. But at the same time, they have a ton of dudes who can play off ball as play finishers. And I think they have an easier path through the conference. I think Boston is the clear-cut championship favorite at this point. I think a lot of the stuff we've seen from them that's looked bad at times

this year is mostly just dealing with the 82 game regular season after you've already won the trophy. And again, all these other teams that we're talking about are just dealing with another level of urgency. The Celtics are still a clear number one for me. Number two, the Oklahoma City Thunder on Draft Kings at plus 225 to win the title. The main point of optimism for me with the thunder is their defense. They have the best defense in the league and it isn't particularly close. the gap between their defensive rating and the second best defensive rating is the same as the gap between the second best defensive rating

and the 10th best defensive rating in the NBA. They defend well in every single area like Boston does, but they also force a ton of turnovers and get out and transition off of those turnovers, which is something that Boston doesn't. The only thing they don't do well on defense is they're not a good defensive rebounding team, but that is just a real asset that they have in any playoff series.

the best defense in the league that's going to provide a lot of problems for teams to deal with. I also think Oklahoma City has a much better primary weapon to deploy on stars in terms of Lou Dort, who I think is a top-tier guy in that regard, and just like a real asset to just be able to put him on the other team's best player and just know for a fact that he's going to make that guy uncomfortable. He does it against guards like Donovan Mitchell and big old wings like Luca Donchich, like he's just as versatile as they get, just a huge weapon for that defense. And statistically, their offense is excellent. They're sixth and overall offensive rating.

Their fifth and half-court offensive rating, and cleaning the glass has them as the fourth best transition offense in the league. Shea is still the substantial favorite to win the MVP on Draft Kings right now. So every metric would tell us that Oklahoma City is the best team in the league. Again, like I mentioned earlier, even Draft Kings has them as the championship favorite. So why do I have Boston ahead of them? I think Oklahoma City's dominance in this particular regular season is a bit in over their playoff viability.

I have consistently talked about over the years about how young, super athletic teams have a certain impact in the regular season that older veteran teams struggle to match. It gets even more exaggerated by the fact that in the regular season, you don't have as much time to prep. When you run into OKC for a single game on a random Tuesday in February, it can catch you off guard.

You can get your butt kicked, especially when their defense is built on aggression and forcing mistakes. Every single one of their top eight minutes per game guys in their rotation is 26 or younger. Three of them are 23 or younger. Here's the Celtics as a counter example. Of their top eight rotation players, only Jason Tatum is 26 or younger. And he's exactly 26.

Three of their top eight are in their 30s. Two of them are over age 34. You think those guys are going to bring the same level of nightly intensity that Oklahoma City is bringing this year? Of course not. When you get to the postseason, two things happen that limit the effectiveness of this halacious style that Oklahoma City is playing. One, all of the vets start matching the level of intensity that the young guys bring. Now, the young guys are still more athletic,

but the gap shrinks as the vets engage for urgent. basketball. And then two, you get to prepare for several days for the matchup. And then even within the matchup, you get two weeks to try to solve the problem. Simple example. Last year, the Thunder were also a dominant forcing turnovers get out and transition type of team. In four regular season matchups against the Mavs, they forced 16 turnovers per game and scored 24.3 points off of those turnovers in the regular season. In the four-levels, losses to Dallas in the postseason? They only forced 14

turnovers per game, and they only scored 18 points off of them. More than six points less. That makes a substantial difference when you're splitting tiny margins between two great teams. The problem they present, the confusion,

the chaos, the transition attack, the effectiveness goes down in the postseason because the vets are more up for it and teams are more prepared for it. So the question is, How good are the Thunder really? They're awesome. They're top-tier contender.

I think they're the second most likely to win the title. But the reality of who they are as a team is somewhere between what they were last year against Dallas and what they are now. Somewhere in the middle of there. And I think that that puts them firmly below the Boston Celtics. I think the biggest problem they'll face in the postseason is role players making shots.

Isaiah Joe was the only player to hit 40% of his threes against Dallas last year. case on wallace jeline williams jeline williams lewdart erin wiggins chet holmgren that's jlin williams back up center lou dort erin wiggins and chet homegrin all shot 33% or worse in that series from three when they've lost games this year it's been a similar issue the offense bogs down nobody but sGA can hit a shot now to be clear if they shoot the ball well across the board their defense is so good they'll win the title i'm just skeptical that they'll shoot the ball well enough. Their 17th and three-point percentage this year, their bottom 10 and spot-up efficiency

according to Synergy. Teams are going to pack the paint. They're going to dare other guys to make shots and Shay to try to score a million points. That is the one thing that I think makes them a lot more vulnerable than their record would lead you to believe, if that makes sense. Moving on to our second tier.

I'm calling this the appropriate fear tier. These are teams that have pretty high expectations. Like if any of these teams lost a first round series, it would be considered a massive failure. But at the same time, they're obviously aware that Boston and OKC are going to be really tough challenges for them, that it's an uphill climb there. But on the flip side, I think both OKC and Boston should have an appropriate fear of these teams and the reality

that they could potentially upset them. I also think all three of these teams are particularly particularly vulnerable to matchups that they probably need to avoid to get where they want to go. I'm actually going to name all three tiers here just so I can demonstrate the matchup weakness. The three teams I have in this tier are the Nuggets, the Cavs, and then the Lakers.

To me, if the Nuggets see Minnesota, they're probably going to lose. If the Cavs see Boston, I think they're probably going to lose. And if the Lakers see the Nuggets, I think they're probably going to lose. And by the way, we're going to get further into this when we get to the Lakers. they're the one team in this entire list that is like I don't feel very strongly about

because they're just kind of loosely thrown in here because we've just seen so little of them with Luca. We just don't know what they're capable of. We'll talk more about that when we get to the Lakers. Number three, Denver Nuggets, currently at plus 1,400 to win the title on Draft Kings, one of the best values that I think I see on that list. I gave Denver the nod here over Cleveland for a simple reason. They present an unsolvable problem for everyone in the league, including the Celtics and the Thunder, which is not something that I think the Cavs present. Nicole Yokic is far and away the best player in the world and a guy that none of these teams can

really do anything with. Again, we'll talk more about the calves in a minute, but I just don't think they present that type of problem. The Nuggets have achieved a similar level of unguardability to what they had in 2023, in large part because Yokich got his jump shot back in a huge way. He's been one of the very best jump shooters in the league this year. Here's a simple stat to demonstrate the difference between this year's Nuggets offense and previous years. This year, the Nuggets have a 126.1 offensive rating with Nicole Yokic on the floor.

Last year, that number was 122.4. So a substantial drop there. Even the year they won the title, it was only 124.2. Think about how crazy that is. The Nuggets are scoring, two points better per 100 possessions. Then they did the year they won the title with Nicole Yokich on the floor, even with less shooting around him than ever before. The main week. with Denver is their defense. Their 16th in defensive rating, 28th in transition defense, according to cleaning the glass,

12th and half-court defense, 17th in clutch defense. They also give up the fifth most points per game in the paint and the seventh most made threes per game. So that's obviously where the hole is, right? Now, it's a similar idea to what we were talking about with OKC.

This is an older veteran team that isn't going to bring the same level of intensity night tonight. The Nuggets will be a better defense when they get to the postseason. The question is, how much better? Will they be good enough? But if they can leverage their defense enough to unlock their borderline unguardable offense with Yokic, they absolutely can win the whole thing. And that's why I had them all the way up at number three. Again, I do worry about them for that Minnesota matchup, though. That's one that I think they're yet

to overcome and have some serious issues with. Number four, the Cleveland Cavaliers. They're currently at plus 700 to win the title according to Draft Kings. This is a really, really good basketball team. every measure, right? They're producing similar levels of insane offense to what Denver's doing, and they're a very respectable defense, albeit not in the same stratosphere as Boston and OKC. I think part of the reason why they're still undervalued by a lot of people is that Darius Garland and Evan Mobley kind of have a reputation, right? They appeared to be the weak points in their previous playoff exits. I just think both of those guys are substantially better players now, especially Garland, who's become one of my favorite players to watch in the league and

has a remarkable ability to generate dribble penetration. The main reasons I'm I'm lower on the calves than most people are. One, they also rely a good amount on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition, which like we talked about earlier, can be less effective when you get to May and June. And then two, they shot the ball preposterously well to start the year. I remember at one point a month or so back, I looked and I was like, oh my God, they're shooting 45% on transition threes. Like, that's insane.

Since January 12th, the calves are 11th and 3 point percentage. And as their hot shooting has come back, bit. Their defense has slipped. They're now only 11th in defense in that span, 12th in points off of opponent turnovers in that span, and they're just 11 and 6 in their last 17 games, which is really good. I just don't view them as the type of world beating team that they were early in the year when they were just making every damn three-point shot they're taking. I personally think the Cavs are destined for a conference finals loss to the Boston Celtics, and I think they're capable of losing to an Indiana or a Milwaukee or New York in round two,

although I'd favor them over all three of those teams. The case, the case for Cleveland beating Boston is having home court advantage, jumping up 2-0, and then stealing game three or game four in Boston, and just putting them too far behind the eight ball to be able to come back and win that series. But we've just seen time and time again, even as recently as their last matchup, Boston just gets great shots. And if it wasn't for a Donovan Mitchell Heater in a game where Jailen didn't even play, they would have been 0 and 3 against the Celtics this year.

It just doesn't seem like a team that I think they can overcome. Number five, the Los Angeles Lakers plus 1,800 on Draft Kings right now to win the title. Again, I'm kind of just throwing them in here at the bottom of this tier because we really don't know how good they're going to be. I've seen a lot of strong opinions about how bad the Lakers are going to be. And it's just not based on anything we've actually seen. Every other team we're going to cover today as we've seen a lot. of what they're going to be, right?

Everything with the Lakers is conjecture. I do think their offense is going to be absolutely amazing. That's not something worth overthinking. It's arguably the best combination of shot creation and play finishing talent that we've seen since the 2018 Warriors. The two primary shot creators in LeBron and Luca are two of the best playoff shot creators we've ever seen who thrive in the physicality of that environment.

They also require very similar types of defenders, which I think will test the defensive depth of teams at the forward spot. I would recommend not overthinking the offense. They're going to score a million points. Defense is where it gets tricky. The Lakers had an 11-and-2 stretch right before Luca joined the team,

where they were literally the number one defense in the league, and they put forth several impressive defensive efforts against teams like Boston, the Knicks, the Clippers. They have more good defensive players than people think. They turned DeAngelo Russell into Doreen Phinney Smith. Jared Vanderbilt is one of the better defenders in the league. LeBron James, as he's become engaged with this new group, has been a very good defender. Gabe is a good defender at the Garstot.

Even a guy like Austin does his job, even though he can get into some situations early in the year where he's asked to guard the other team's best player and it's not a good fit for him. But he, as a subsidiary defender, can be just fine. They've started doing a much better job of executing JJ Reddix 1 through 5 switching scheme. I think they have a good defensive punch. That's been clearly demonstrated over the course of the last month. But you're now adding in 40-ish minutes of Luca Donchich in the playoffs. And he's a guy that can be downright damaging to a defense in certain matchups,

specifically teams that can really space the floor. It will be JJ Reddick's responsibility to try to find ways to deploy him properly in each playoff matchup. So here's the big question. With Luca in the picture, will the Lakers be a terrible defense, an average defense or a great defense. I don't think they'll be great. It's too much of a downgrade, getting 40 minutes of Luke on instead of two-way wings, right?

But I don't think they'll be terrible either. Like I was arguing with Carson Breber from NerdSash on their show the other day and, like, he thinks they're going to be a bottom 10 defense. I disagree. I think they're going to be a middle 10 defense. Like, they have too many good defensive players to just be a bad defensive team. But if they can get to the point where they're an upper middle team, like in that 11 to 15 range,

on the defensive end of the floor, that's where I think they have a good enough offense that they can be a legitimate championship contender. My main concerns are matchup related. I think they really match up well with OKC. Lou Dort can only guard one of Luca and LeBron, and the Lakers are just so much bigger and stronger on the perimeter. I think it's a real advantage for them.

I also think Luca and LeBron are great counters to Oklahoma City's aggressive turnover forcing defense. Like they can get the ball across the court to guys that get their defense into rotation. but I think they match up really poorly with Denver and really poorly with Boston. Denver because they will have a world of trouble with Yokic and Boston because they'll be able to actually space the floor enough

to where Luca's lack of lateral quickness will be a huge problem. But even within the context of those matchups or the OKC matchup or matchups with teams we have further down on this list, I don't really have a strong opinion on anything because we just need to see more of this new look Lakers team playing basketball. Last note on the Lakers two, injuries. I talked about this the other day. after they lost to the jazz.

If they lose Jackson Hayes, if they lose a Dorian Finney Smith, they could be in a real, a real rough spot because all of a sudden they're going to have to play Vando or Christian Coloco or Alex Len at all times. And if one of those guys is on the floor,

it allows teams to park a rim protector under the basket, make them a jump shooting team, which can bog down their offense. So they kind of have a narrow matchup, matchup kind of pathway, and they kind of have a narrow injury pathway. But I don't overthink it. They're going to score a million points.

They've been a good defense for a while. I do believe they're a legitimate championship contender. The question is where? And we'll have a better idea of that once we get deeper into the season. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news?

We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. but this one's extra special.

So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad Hey Jonas and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band, with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, actress, mother, lover, and a Gen X woman walking through life one hot flash and hormonal crying jag at a time. You ladies know what I mean. I'll bet you a parameda Pazel chin here you do. So let's talk about it. Join me on my new podcast.

How hard can it be with Deanna Maria Riva, where I call on my... Gen X squads from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate Midlife's most fantastic BS. All of a sudden, I'd had hanginess happening on my own. I was like, what the hell is that? I was married when I had her, so I didn't even consider how empty that nest was going to be. Mood swings, night sweats, fupas, sex drive. Wait, what sex?

Dating at 45. How can it be getting naked at 50 with the new guy? That one's kind of hard. Well, that's lighting. They say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with laughs, tears or tears of laughter, and dive into it, unfiltered and unbothered and ask, How Hard Can It Be? I cannot believe I'm about to say this out loud in public.

Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva as part of my Cultura podcast network available on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam, Ms. Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game.

His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall.

And then he has to give us every. everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get to fly. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball.

Like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah. You figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On to our third tier, I'm going to start moving a little bit faster through teams now

because we've got a bunch to get to. This to me is the high variance tier. These are teams with real upside, real potential to win the title, but that also have glaring weaknesses that could get them beat early. These are teams that if they lost in the first round, I wouldn't be very surprised.

But if they made it to the finals, I wouldn't be very surprised either. They all have huge strengths and huge weaknesses. Starting with number six, the New York Knicks at plus 1,000 to win the title on draft kings. They're the second best offense in the league this year, led by Jalen Brunson and Superior play finishing

to just about everyone in the league. OG, McHale, and Kat are all just absolutely lethal if you give them an advantage. They also have a brilliant transition attack. They don't force a turn to turnovers or get a ton of stops, but when they do, they'll get up the floor like a blur, getting great shots. They've been a mediocre defense all year, though.

They're 18th in defensive rating. Absolutely brutal against the top teams. They're 24th in defensive rating against teams in the top 10 in point differential, and they're just five and eight in those games. And it's the same story every time. Teams just picking on Kat, picking on Jalen Brunson, sometimes both at the same time, and they just get their defense in rotation, and they get great shots. They give up the highest opponent three-point percentage in the league, and their 20th and points in the paint allowed per game. And we haven't even got to the real issue facing them,

which is that they appear utterly incapable of getting buckets or stops against the Boston Celtics. Their offense and their defense falls apart against them. I just think it's inevitable. that Boston beats New York if they ever run into them in the postseason. Their only hope is that Mitchell Robinson comes back and gives them a viable defensive look that can work against the top teams in the league. The reason why I say they have real upside, though, is pretty simple. There are teams that I think give Boston issues. The next team on this list is an example.

All it takes is Boston getting upset, and suddenly the Knicks look like a team that has real potential to get out of the conference. So they obviously have that chance there. I just don't think that they can get through Boston if they run into them. Number seven, the Milwaukee Bucks plus 3,000. to win the title on draft kings, much more of a threat now. Like, Kyle Kuzma is in the picture. I think he gives the Bucks a much more physically imposing front line.

The interesting thing for me with the Bucks is I think they're the team that gives the Celtics the most issues in the conference. They've consistently given them issues over the last few years because they can protect the rim well, they can bait Boston into jump shooting. And Janus is just this indomitable force, right? But they're an interesting team because they're just as likely to lose in the first round to somebody as they already even make it to a Boston matchup, which again is kind of the theme

for this tier. Again, these are high variance teams. Wouldn't be surprised if they lost in the first round, wouldn't be surprised if they made it to the finals. The scary thing for the bucks is they've been frankly terrible against the top teams in the league this year. They won the big game against Oklahoma City in the in in season tournament final, and that was an

impressive win. That's the one you cling to for upside, but they're just two and 12 this year against teams in the top 10 in point differential in bottom four in both offensive. and defense in those matchups. Number eight, the Minnesota Timberwolves plus 6,000. The Timberwolves are an interesting team to me

because they have these obvious gaping flaws on the offensive end of the floor, which would lead you to believe that they could lose to anyone. And again, like we talked about, that's the theme of this tier. But the reason why I have the Wolf so high has a lot to do with their playoff run last year and what they did to OKC the other night.

They have the ability to ratchet up their physical intensity in a way that a lot of teams really struggle to match. They have so many, like, top-tier defensive players that can really make opponents uncomfortable. And you get to the playoffs and the officials let you get away with being more handsy and grabby. And it just is a huge advantage for Minnesota. I also think the wolves match up really well with Denver and OKC, which bodes well for them as just being a threat to upset them. I think they're actually more vulnerable against a team like the Lakers

because they wouldn't be able to guard Luca or LeBron just because they can toss Jaden McDaniels around. Most of their perimeter guys are a little too thin. But yeah, like, Minnesota is an interesting team because, like, they could easily get beaten the first round by their offense falls apart. But, like, I wouldn't be stunned if they beat OKC or if they beat Denver and went on a run and just started mauling everybody with their defense. And Nas Reid is playing so damn well. And, like, they're just, they just look to me as a team that's more of a playoff threat than a regular season threat. Then lastly, in this tier, the Memphis Grizzlies, plus 3,000. The metrics peg Memphis is an upper tier team.

They're fifth in offense, seventh in defense, second in rebounding. They're a very, very good regular season team. But their offense just has a tendency to bog down against the good teams. They're just 18th in spot-up efficiency. Just a 10.9.7 offensive rating in matchups against the top 10 point differentials in the league, according to cleaning the glass. And they're just six and 10 in those matchups. Same sort of story that consistently happens there.

They've also struggled in the clutch where teams just packed the paint. It becomes kind of a shot-making contest with John Morant and Jaron Jackson. and it turns into a lot of difficult shots. They just haven't been able to have the same level of success against the best teams in the league that they did against the rest of their schedule. That's pretty typical for young athletic teams, right? Their success will be very matchup dependent.

I could see them upsetting teams like Denver or L.A. because of their lack of rim protection, but they're the sort of team that if they ran into like the Mavs with a healthy Anthony Davis or Minnesota, teams that can really pack to paint with length, I could see them losing in the first round. So once again, sticking to the theme of that tier. Our fourth tier, these are the Punchers Chance teams.

These are teams that are most likely first round exits, but you can at least see a viable pathway towards them making a deep playoff run if a bunch of things go their way. Number 10, the Golden State Warriors plus 3,000. This is a very good defensive team with a lot of perimeter speed, two dominant front court defenders in Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green, but their offense is limited, and it can really grind to a halt sometimes, especially when Steph is having a rough night.

But it really is this simple to me. It doesn't matter what the metrics are. If you find yourself in a playoff series, and it's Dreymond, and it's Steph, and it's Jimmy on the floor, they're going to be really tough to deal with. And if those guys dig deep, like if Steph has a throwback playoff run like what he had in 2022, or if Jimmy Butler has a throwback playoff run like he had in 2023, they can absolutely beat some teams and make some noise. Number 11, the Dallas Mavericks, plus 3,500.

Feels like their legitimate championship upside was taken off with the departure of Luca Donchich. I loved this roster. I would have probably had them right up around that number five spot if they had kept Luca. That's the same guy who got them within three wins of the title last year, right? But it is possible to see a tiny pathway for them this year on the strength of their defense and a surgical playoff run from a guy like Kyra Irving.

We haven't even seen what AD will look like next to Derek lively. He's a substantial better defender than Daniel Gafford. They could be frightening. They might not even make the playoffs with all the injuries. But if they somehow get in and they get a first round series and AD's healthy and Derek lively's healthy and Kyrie Irving's healthy and Clay Thompson is healthy,

PJ Washington's healthy, we'd be foolish to say that they can't beat a top team and go on a run. They're going to be an absolute pain in the ass to deal with. but I think it's far more likely that they lose in the first round. And then number 12, the Indiana Pacers, plus 13,000 to win the title on Draft Kings right now. Real long shot there, so some value, if you believe in the Pacers.

They have the fifth best record in the league since December 13th, the 20 and 8th, 7th in offense and 11th in defense. I just don't think any of their units have the level of resilience necessary to be a legit contender. Like I've seen Seacum and Halliburton struggle to create shots too often. I've seen their defense fall apart too often and they are terrible rebounding team. So I just don't think they have any specific unit

that's good enough to really carry them. But they won the War of Atrition last year. While every team broke down around them, they just kept trucking along. They even held leads late in the conference finals against Boston. They're a good ball pressure team. They're a good transition offense. They can keep games close and wear you down.

It's impossible not to at least consider them a threat after they made the conference finals last year. Number 13, our last team in this tier, the Los Angeles Clippers. They're plus 3,500 to win the title, tons of perimeter speed, guys who can defend both on and off the ball. James Hardin was an all-star this year for his shot creation ability. If he because Zubach has turned himself into like a super dependable starting center in this league. Norman Powell is having a career year, and Kauai's back now.

But any theoretical championship upside for the Clippers comes down to Kauai reaching his peak and he just hasn't looked like that guy yet. Can't write them off because if Kauai does get back to that level, this roster is absolutely good enough to hoist the trophy. But we all know that that's just a very narrow possibility for something like that to happen. Moving on to our last tier, these are teams that think they can compete for a championship, but that I can't actually see a viable path for them. These are teams like if I even just saw them playing in the conference finals, I would be absolutely

stunned. Number 14, the Houston Rockets, plus 6,000 to win the title. They just don't have the shot creation to hang with the top teams. Even just losing Fred Van Vleet caused the bottom to fall out for him. They're two and six since he got hurt. After being like utterly dominant with him before that, they're even struggling against bad teams in that stretch. I think it's highly likely that they lose in the first round. And even if they catch like a really favorable matchup and like beat a bad playing team in the first round, I still think they're certain to lose in the second round. Then lastly, number 15, the Phoenix Suns, plus 12,000 to win the title. Real long-shot odds there. Just a horrific defense, a horrific rebounding team that doesn't score the ball nearly

well enough to be a threat to do anything. Even with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker on the floor together this year, they have only a 115.6 offensive rating. That's more than 10 points worse than the nuggets are with Nicole Yokic, for example, per 100 possessions. The roster is full of guys who probably shouldn't be in the rotation on a serious basketball team. I think they're destined for a play in or first round loss and probably completely blowing up the roster when they get to this summer. That's it for our contender rankings. Also, just to give you guys an idea of what I thought were the best values

in terms of betting odds, Denver at plus 1,400. I think they got a real shot to win it this year. That's a great price. And the Minnesota Timberwolves, again, plus 6,000 for a team that matches up really well with the top teams in the league and just has this otherworldly physical defense potential when you get to the postseason. I just think that's an interesting price to be able to jump on for value as well. All right, guys, it's all at half for today.

As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. We're going to take a little break for this last little break before we get into the home stretch of the season. Wednesday night, the Lakers play the Hornets. We'll be breaking that game down on Thursday morning. I will see you guys. What's up, guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting hoops tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review.

As always, I appreciate you guys. I appreciate you. I'd take a minute to do that. I'd really appreciate it. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

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